Tuesday, May 10, 2011

It's Not Just The Failure To Hit With The Bases Loaded

Much has been said about the Mets' failure to produce with the bases loaded this season. After all, the team is hitting .182 (6-for-33) with the bags full. By contrast, the rest of the National League is hitting .294 in those situations. But this is not the only favorable hitting situation that the Mets have failed in repeatedly this season. In fact, the Mets have become quite adept at being inept.

David K. Wright doing what he does best.

Anytime a team has a runner on third base and less than two outs, the odds of scoring that run are obviously very good, as it can score without the benefit of a base hit. However, the Mets seem to have not received that memo. With a runner on third and less than two outs, the Mets are hitting a paltry .196 (11-for-56) with 34 RBI (10 sacrifice flies). They have struck out 17 times in these situations and have yet to hit a home run.

Even scarier is that the Mets have not hit a home run all season with a runner on third base. Of their 28 home runs, 15 have been of the solo variety, five have come with a man on first, five have been hit with a man on second, and the other three (all three-run homers) were blasted with men on first and second. Mets players have come to bat 150 times this season with a man on third base and have yet to hit a ball out of the ballpark. How many hits have they gotten in those 150 plate appearances? A measly 21, with only eight extra-base hits. They have struck out 31 times against only 18 walks in those situations. But wait, there's more.

In the late innings, when good teams are able to put together rallies to prevail in tight games, the Mets' bats go to sleep. Over the first six innings this season, the Mets have actually been quite respectable, hitting .265. They also have a .335 on-base percentage and a .419 slugging percentage from innings 1 through 6. However, over the final three innings, it's a completely different story (.201/.300/.325). Why is this so shocking? Because a starting pitcher usually contributes to lowering the batting avg./OBP/slugging pct. of his team during the first six innings of a ballgame. His spot is often taken by a pinch-hitter over the final three innings, a pinch-hitter who can usually be counted on to be a more productive hitter than the pitcher he's replacing in the batting order.

Of course, pinch-hitting has not been the Mets' forté this season, as substitutes have combined to hit .172 (16-for-93), have reached base at a .235 clip, and are slugging .258. Players such as Willie Harris, Scott Hairston and Chin-Lung Hu have yet the put the word "hitting" in pinch-hitting, as they have come off the bench to strike out 31 times while drawing only six walks.

This has become too familiar a sight at Citi Field this season.

So what does a first place team do with the bases loaded and some of the other situations discussed here? The Philadelphia Phillies have hit .300 (12-for-40) with the bags full this season. With runners on third base and less than two outs, they're hitting .299 with 50 RBI. They have 35 hits with runners on third base, including three home runs. And for all those who say "all they do is hit home runs", let it be known that as of today, both the Phillies and the Mets have hit exactly 28 home runs.

Yeah. That's what a first place team does at the plate when presented with favorable hitting situations. They don't strand runners on base. They move guys around. They make productive outs. They draw walks. They don't strike out, pop out or hit into inning-ending double plays. Last place teams do that. That's where the Mets are right now, and that's where they're going to stay if they don't start recognizing what needs to be done at the plate.

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