Mets Must Avoid The Second Half Blues

The All-Star Break represents the unofficial end of the first half of the baseball season.  Going into this year's break, the Mets have a 46-40 record.  They are 4½ games behind the Washington Nationals for first place in the National League East and a half-game behind Atlanta for the second wild card spot.

If the Mets are going to be serious contenders in September, they're going to have to continue playing as well as they did in the first half, if not better.  The Mets have shown no signs of coming apart at the seams, but then again, they didn't show signs of doing so in each of the last two seasons either.  Now if you catch yourself saying "but I don't remember the Mets being competitive over the last few seasons", you'll have to step aside and allow me to retort.

In 2011, the Mets were also above .500 at the All-Star Break with a 46-45 record.  Once they returned from their four-day break, the Mets proceeded to go 31-40 over the season's final 71 games.  Similarly, in 2010, the Mets went into their summer hiatus with an even better 48-40 mark.  Then they went out west after the break and tanked, losing nine of 11 en route to a 31-43 second half record.

But second half sleepwalks are nothing new for the Mets.  In fact, they've been doing in throughout their half-century of existence.  Let's look at the Mets' record in each of their first 50 seasons prior to the All-Star Break and compare it to their second halves.  The winning percentage for each half will also be included as part of this analysis.  Bold face and orange color denotes the half with the higher winning percentage.

• 1962: First Half (23-59, .280); Second Half (17-61, .218)
• 1963: First Half (29-55, .345); Second Half (22-56, .282)
• 1964: First Half (23-58, .284); Second Half (30-51, .370)
• 1965: First Half (29-56, .341); Second Half (21-56, .273)
• 1966: First Half (35-48, .422); Second Half (31-47, .397)
• 1967: First Half (31-47, .397); Second Half (30-54, .357)
• 1968: First Half (39-43, .476); Second Half (34-46, .425)
• 1969: First Half (53-39, .576); Second Half (47-23, .671)
• 1970: First Half (47-39, .547); Second Half (36-40, .474)
• 1971: First Half (46-40, .535); Second Half (37-39, .487)
• 1972: First Half (49-38, .563); Second Half (34-35, .493)
• 1973: First Half (42-51, .452); Second Half (40-28, .588)
• 1974: First Half (40-52, .435); Second Half (31-39, .443)
• 1975: First Half (43-42, .50588); Second Half (39-38, .50649)
• 1976: First Half (46-42, .523); Second Half (40-34, .541)
• 1977: First Half (37-55, .402); Second Half (27-43, .386)
• 1978: First Half (36-50, .419); Second Half (30-46, .395)
• 1979: First Half (38-49, .437); Second Half (25-50, .333)
• 1980: First Half (38-40, .487); Second Half (29-55, .345)
• 1981: First Half (17-34, .333); Second Half (24-28, .462)
• 1982: First Half (40-47, .460); Second Half (25-50, .333)
• 1983: First Half (30-50, .375); Second Half (38-44, .463)
• 1984: First Half (47-34, .580); Second Half (43-38, .531)
• 1985: First Half (50-36, .581); Second Half (48-28, .632)
• 1986: First Half (59-25, .702); Second Half (49-29, .628)
• 1987: First Half (47-40, .540); Second Half (45-30, .600)
• 1988: First Half (53-34, .609); Second Half (47-26, .644)
• 1989: First Half (45-39, .536); Second Half (42-36, .538)
• 1990: First Half (47-31, .603); Second Half (44-40, .524)
• 1991: First Half (46-34, .575); Second Half (31-50, .383)
• 1992: First Half (42-46, .477); Second Half (30-44, .405)
• 1993: First Half (27-60, .310); Second Half (32-43, .427)
• 1994: First Half (40-47, .460); Second Half (15-11, .577)
• 1995: First Half (25-44, .362); Second Half (44-31, .587)
• 1996: First Half (41-46, .471); Second Half (30-45, .400)
• 1997: First Half (48-38, .558); Second Half (40-36, .526)
• 1998: First Half (44-39, .530); Second Half (44-35, .557)
• 1999: First Half (50-39, .562); Second Half (47-27, .635)
• 2000: First Half (48-38, .558); Second Half (46-30, .605)
• 2001: First Half (38-51, .427); Second Half (44-29, .603)
• 2002: First Half (43-44, .494); Second Half (32-42, .432)
• 2003: First Half (40-53, .430); Second Half (26-42, .382)
• 2004: First Half (44-43, .506); Second Half (27-48, .360)
• 2005: First Half (44-44, .500); Second Half (39-35, .527)
• 2006: First Half (53-36, .596); Second Half (44-29, .603)
• 2007: First Half (48-39, .552); Second Half (40-35, .533)
• 2008: First Half (51-44, .537); Second Half (38-29, .567)
• 2009: First Half (42-45, .483); Second Half (28-47, .373)
• 2010: First Half (48-40, .545); Second Half (31-43, .419)
• 2011: First Half (46-45, .505); Second Half (31-40, .437)

In 28 of their first 50 seasons, the Mets' winning percentage in games played prior to the All-Star Break was higher than their winning percentage after the break.  This may not seem like much of a disparity, but let's dig a little deeper.

The Mets have finished above .500 in 23 of their first 50 seasons.  But this season marks the 25th time they've been at .500 or better at the All-Star Break.  The Mets have only had 22 second halves in which they finished with a winning record.  And when the Mets struggle in the second half ... boy, do they ever struggle!

Beginning in 1962, when the Mets' second half winning percentage was .062 lower in the second half compared to their first half winning percentage, the Mets have had 23 seasons in which their second half winning percentage was at least .040 lower than their first half winning percentage.  In all but five of the seasons in which the Mets' production fell off after the All-Star Break did they remain within .040 of their first half winning percentage.

Meanwhile, in only 13 seasons did the Mets improve by at least .040 from the first half to the second half.  The last time this occurred was in 2001, when the Mets were thirteen games under .500 at the break, but recovered to play over .600 ball during the second half of the season.

The Mets have always been a first half team.  In seven of their last ten seasons, they've performed better prior to the All-Star Break, only to crumble after the Midsummer Classic.  This season, the Mets are once again having a solid first half.  Will they continue to follow the precedent they've set over the past decade or will they finally rid themselves of the second half blues?  If the Mets are going to play meaningful games in September for the first time at Citi Field, they better make sure it's the latter.