The 2015 Mets Are Going Where Few Mets Teams Have Gone Before

Cespe-date good times, come on!  (Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports)

On Friday, the Mets won their fifth consecutive game, taking a 5-1 decision over the Atlanta Braves.  The win, coupled with the Nationals' 2-1 loss to the Miami Marlins, increased the Mets' lead over Washington to a season-high 8½ games.

The season is not over yet, even with the Mets' magic number down to 14.  If you look hard enough, you will find a pessimistic Mets fan who will remind you that when the team had a seven-game lead with 17 to play in 2007, the magic number had already been shaved down to 11 at that point.  However, with Washington seemingly on a collision course with the .500 mark and the Mets winning 31 of their last 44 games, the club's coronation as division champions appears to be inevitable.

Since the N.L. East crown is still officially up for grabs (barely), let's look at one thing that has already become certain.  This tweet by a stalker of this site says it all.

The Mets have led the NL East by at least 8 1/2 games in five seasons - 1969, 1986, 1988, 2006 and 2015.

— Ed Leyro (@Studi_Metsimus) September 12, 2015

The first four times the Mets took an 8½-game lead, they won division titles in each season.  The 1969 squad did not lead the N.L. East by at least 8½ games until the next-to-last day of the regular season, when it held a nine-game lead over the Chicago Cubs.  That team lost the regular season finale to win the division by eight games.  Therefore, should the Mets defeat the Braves tonight and the Nationals drop another decision to the Marlins, New York would have a division lead greater than nine games for just the fourth time in team history, matching the accomplishment of the 1986, 1988 and 2006 squads.  Those teams once led their respective divisions by 22 games, 15 games and 16½ games, respectively.

One of the main reasons why the Mets have built a seemingly comfortable lead in the N.L. East is because they have beaten up on their division rivals.  New York has gone 14-2 versus Philadelphia, 10-6 against both Miami and Washington and 8-6 when taking on Atlanta.  That gives the Mets a total of 42 victories against the foes they see the most.  Now let's consider this tweet by that stalker I can't seem to get rid of.

Mets are 42-20 vs. NL East teams. No other team has more than 35 wins against teams in its own division. (Royals and Dodgers have 35 each.)

— Ed Leyro (@Studi_Metsimus) September 12, 2015

The Mets feast on division rivals more than any other team in baseball and appear poised to lead the majors in wins within their own division - a feat that's been even rarer in team history than the 8½-game division lead.

As stated before, prior to this season, only four Mets teams had ever led the division by as many as 8½ games.  But only three teams in club annals have ever led the majors in division victories, and it has hasn't happened in over a quarter century.

The 1986, 1987 and 1988 Mets are the only squads in franchise history to win more games within their division than any other team in baseball.  The 1986 World Champion Mets won 59 games against their N.L. East rivals, which was three more than the 56 wins their NLCS opponent - the Houston Astros - posted against N.L. West teams.

The following season, key disabled list stints for the entire starting rotation kept the Mets from returning to the postseason, but didn't prevent them from leading the majors in wins within their division.  The second-place Mets went 53-37 in the N.L. East, which was one game better than the second-place Reds, who were 52-38 in the N.L. West.

In 1988, the Mets won their second division title in three seasons, a crown that was fueled by the team's domination of the N.L. East.  New York finished with a 57-33 record against its division rivals.  No American League team won more than 47 games within its division and only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League were able to join the Mets in winning more than 50 division games - they were 53-37 against the N.L. West.  That was the last time a Mets team won more games in its own division than any other club in baseball.

Incredibly, the 1969 and 2006 Mets - who posted the third and fifth-best records in franchise history, respectively, and both won division titles - did not lead the majors in wins within their divisions.

The Miracle Mets of 1969, who were 57-33 against the N.L. East, actually had three teams finish ahead of them in the race for superiority within a division, and all three teams were the division champions that didn't win the World Series that year.  The N.L. West champion Atlanta Braves finished 58-32 in its division, while the two American League division winners - the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins - finished 58-32 and 59-31, respectively, against their division rivals.

In 2006, the Mets went 45-29 versus the N.L. East, which was one win fewer than the crosstown Yankees and the Cincinnati Reds posted against their division rivals.  Both teams finished 46-28 against their hated foes.

The 2015 Mets have surprised many experts by not only leading the division this late in the season, but by holding a commanding advantage over the heavily favored Washington Nationals.  In doing so, they are accomplishing things that very few Mets teams in the past have accomplished.

Their 8½ (and growing) game lead in the N.L. East is only the fifth time a Mets team has ever led a division by that many games.  The previous four times it happened, the Mets won division titles.  And their 42 wins within the N.L. East could potentially make this year's Mets squad only the fourth in team history - and the first since 1988 - to lead the majors in division victories.  The 2015 Mets have seven more wins in their division than any other team has in theirs.  No Mets club has ever had more than a four-game advantage over all other teams in games played within the division.

The classic TV show, Star Trek, attempted to boldly go where no man had gone before.  The stars on the 2015 Mets are approaching the end of their 162-game trek, hoping to advance to the postseason for only the eighth time in the team's 54-season history.  But along the way to the promised land, the current team is doing things that few Mets teams have done before.  And if they continue to do so, the Mets might reach the final frontier around late October or early November.
   

Mets Must Get Over The Four-and-a-Half Game Hump

If the Mets want to see this in October, they need to increase their division lead in August and September.  (AP Photo)

No lead in the division is safe in baseball.  If you were a Mets fan in 2007, then you know how true that statement is.  But some leads are more safe than others, and the Mets have proven that in seasons when they've qualified for the postseason.

The 2015 Mets currently hold a 4½-game lead over the floundering Washington Nationals.  New York has built its lead by winning 11 of its last 14 games, while Washington is in the throes of a 4-11 team slump.  But an extra inning loss to the Pirates last night prevented the Mets from increasing their lead to 5½ games.  And earlier in the season, when the Mets rolled off a franchise record-tying 11-game winning streak, they also held a 4½-game lead in the division.  However, they never went over that hump, standing pat at 4½ for nine straight days (April 23-May 1) before a loss to the Nationals on May 2 cut their lead to 3½ games.

Only twice in club history has the team held a lead in the division of more than 4½ games and failed to win a division title.  The 1972 Mets got off to a tremendous start, winning 31 of their first 43 games.  In late May, the team possessed a comfortable 6½-game lead in the NL East.  But when Rusty Staub was felled by a wayward pitch thrown by Braves pitcher (and future Met) George Stone in early June, the team crumbled.  In the three-month period from June 7 to September 7, the Mets went 34-50 and finished double-digit games behind the eventual division champion Pittsburgh Pirates.

Thirty-five years later, the Mets famously held a seven-game lead with 17 games left in the season, only to see the Philadelphia Phillies take advantage of a Mets team that suddenly forgot how to pitch effectively.  Philly won all seven of their match-ups with the Mets in the season's final five weeks and Mets pitchers allowed an unfathomable 131 runs in the team's last 19 games to cough up the seemingly insurmountable lead.

Other than the 1972 and 2007 campaigns, New York has held a division lead of at least five games in four other campaigns.  They won the division crown in each of those seasons (1969, 1986, 1988, 2006).  They also held a lead of five or more games in the wild card race in 2000 and advanced to the World Series that year.

The Mets have had leads in the division of at least one game many times in franchise history.  And since the wild card came into play in 1995, they have been the leader in that race many times.  But just having a lead in the division or wild card race after the season is well underway hasn't guaranteed October baseball in Flushing.  Let's look at five not-so-memorable instances where this occurred.

• In 1970, the defending World Series champion Mets held a two-game lead in the division when the calendar turned from June to July.  They ended the season six games behind the division-winning Pirates.

• In 1984, the Mets were 4½ games ahead of the Chicago Cubs on July 27.  They lost 11 games in the standings after that date to finish 6½ games behind the first place Cubs.

• The 1990 Mets were alone in first place as late as September 3.  But a 14-16 finish doomed them to second place, four games behind the division champion Pirates.

• Eight years later, the 1998 Mets held a one-game lead in the wild card race with just five games left in the season.  They lost each of their last five games to finish 1½ games behind the eventual wild card-winning Cubs.

• In 2008, one year after blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games to play, the Mets were on top of the NL East by a season-high 3½ games on September 10.  They were also 2½ games up on the Milwaukee Brewers for the wild card as late as September 20, when the season was down to its final eight games.  They failed to qualify for the playoffs.

What do the 1970, 1984, 1990, 1998 and 2008 Mets have in common?  Neither of them were able to stretch their division or wild card leads to more than 4½ games.  That's the same number of games the current Mets haven't been able to surpass in their quest to fight off the Washington Nationals.

The New York Mets have rarely missed the playoffs when they've had a lead of at least five games.  Only the 1972 and 2007 Mets know what it's like to watch the postseason on television after having such a lead.  But give the Mets a lead in the division or wild card race of more than seven games at any point in the season and they've never failed to crash the postseason party.

Entering Saturday's game against the Pirates, the 2015 Mets have been in first place for 64 of the season's 131 days.  They've held a 4½-game lead in the division for 11 of those days.  They've yet to hold a lead of at least five games.  History tells us that increasing that lead would subsequently increase the Mets' odds of making the playoffs.  If the lead were to grow by just three more games, the Mets would be in rarefied air - air that has only been breathed in by the 1969, 1986, 1988 and 2006 Mets.  Those were the only four teams that held a division lead of more than seven games.  You may recall those teams by their other name - NL East champions.

If the 2015 Mets want to join those squads as division champs, they just need to get over the 4½-game hump.  The longer they wait to get over it, the more nerve-wracking the final seven weeks of the season will be.