Showing posts with label Home/Road Splits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Home/Road Splits. Show all posts

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Lucas Duda Could Shatter Two Mets Home Run Records This Year

There has certainly been a lot of this for Lucas Duda at Citi Field this year.  (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Lucas Duda has been the top power hitter for the Mets over the past two seasons, blasting 51 home runs since the start of the 2014 campaign.  Duda's 95 career homers are the already the fourth highest total among left-handed batters in team history.  The only other lefty-swinging sluggers ahead of him are Darryl Strawberry (252 HR), Ed Kranepool (118 HR) and Carlos Delgado (104 HR).

Given good health and a multi-year contract, Duda could one day find his name at or near the top of the leaderboard of most of the team's power-hitting categories.  But Duda may very well shatter an odd team record this year, especially if he continues to turn Citi Field into the House That Luke Built.

Entering Monday's series opener against the Colorado Rockies, Duda has hit 18 home runs this season at Citi Field.  The only batter in Mets history to hit more than 21 homers at home in a single season is Darryl Strawberry, who jacked 24 dingers at Shea Stadium in 1990.  The only other Mets sluggers to surpass Duda's current total at home in one year are Dave Kingman (1982), Howard Johnson (1989, 1991), Todd Hundley (1996), Cliff Floyd (2005), Carlos Delgado (2008) and David Wright (2008).  Keep in mind that those batters accomplished their home run totals over a full season, while Duda still has nearly two months of home games to add to his total.

Duda has a total of 21 home runs this season.  So if 18 of those have been hit at Citi Field, that means he's hit just three homers on the road.  If that seems like a large disparity between home and road homers, that's because it is.  In fact, no player in Mets history has ever hit as many as a dozen more homers at home than he did on the road in one season, and only nine players have hit as many as seven more, as seen in the chart below.
 

Player
Year
Total HR
Home HR
Road HR
Difference
Darryl Strawberry
1990
37
24
13
11
Jim Hickman
1963
17
13
4
9
David Wright
2008
33
21
12
9
Marv Throneberry
1962
16
12
4
8
Steve Henderson
1977
12
10
2
8
Hubie Brooks
1984
16
12
4
8
Carl Everett
1997
14
11
3
8
Cliff Floyd
2005
34
21
13
8
Kevin McReynolds
1987
29
18
11
7


Prior to the recent road trip to Miami and Tampa Bay, Duda became the first Met to hit nine home runs in an eight-game stretch.  All of those home runs were hit at Citi Field.  Duda hasn't gone deep on the road since June 18 in Toronto.

Lucas Duda is already the Mets' all-time leader in home runs at Citi Field with 55, despite not making his Citi Field debut until the final month of the 2010 campaign.  David Wright is the only player within striking distance - he has 46 - and no one else has hit more than 30.

Very few Mets players, regardless of the ballpark they call home, have hit the majority of their round trippers in front of the home fans.  But Lucas Duda is trying to go where no Mets slugger has gone before.  With seven more homers at Citi Field this season, he will become the first Met to hit as many as 25 HR at home in one season.  And as long as his road homers don't outnumber his home blasts by more than three during the season's final two months, he will be the first to hit at least 12 more home runs at home than he hit on the road in franchise history.

Lucas Duda has gone from a player who wasn't assured an everyday job at first base entering the 2014 season to the most prolific home run hitter in Citi Field's seven-year history.  And that turnaround could cause several chapters in the Mets' records books to be rewritten after this year.


Thursday, June 25, 2015

The Mets and Their Unprecedented Home/Road Splits

There's no place like home for the Mets.  It's a different story on the road, where they're wicked awful.

The Mets just completed an eight-game road trip this afternoon in Milwaukee, taking the finale against the Brewers after dropping the first seven games of the trip.  The win improved the team's road record to 11-26, which serves as a mirror image to the club's 26-11 home mark.

As bad as the team has played away from Citi Field, the Mets' .297 winning percentage on the road is not the lowest in team history.  That "honor" belongs to the 1962 through 1965 squads, who played no better than .259 ball away from home in any of those four seasons.  However, those first four Mets squads were also lousy at home, posting sub-.500 records at the Polo Grounds and Shea Stadium as well.  This year's Mets have a .703 winning percentage at Citi Field.  How impressive is that figure?  It's higher than the .700 mark posted by the 1988 Mets, which is the highest full season winning percentage in club history.

The difference between the .703 winning percentage posted by the Mets at home and their .297 mark on the road is a whopping .406.  If that seems like an unusually large difference, that's because it is.  In fact, no past Mets team has ever come close to that lopsided of a home/road split.


      Year
Home Wins
Home Losses
Road Wins
Road Losses
Home Win %
Road Win %
    Difference
2015
26
11
11
26
.703
.297
.406
1963
34
47
17
64
.420
.210
.210
2000
55
26
39
42
.679
.481
.198
1989
51
30
36
45
.630
.444
.186
2010
47
34
32
49
.580
.395
.185
1967
36
42
25
59
.462
.298
.164
1983
41
41
27
53
.500
.338
.162
1990
52
29
39
42
.642
.481
.161
2005
48
33
35
46
.593
.432
.161
1996
42
39
29
52
.519
.358
.161


It's more than likely that the Mets' winning percentage at home is not sustainable for the rest of the season.  Similarly, the team will probably play better than .297 ball on the road over the next three months.  So let's say the Mets play .500 ball at home for the rest of the season, which would be a huge drop-off from the .700-plus ball they've played at Citi Field so far this year.  That would give the Mets a 48-33 home record at season's end.  Similarly, if they find a cure for their road doldrums and split their remaining 44 games away from Flushing, the Mets would finish 33-48 on the road.

A 48-33 mark is a .593 winning percentage, while a 33-48 record is .407.  That's a difference of .186, which would tie the 1989 Mets for the third-greatest difference between home and road winning percentages.  Should the Mets go 23-21 at home and 21-23 on the road the rest of the way, they would match the 1963 club with a .210 difference (49-32 is a .605 winning percentage, while 32-49 produces a .395 mark).

After losing 18 of their last 21 road games, the Mets finally won a game on the road today, taking the series finale against the Brewers, 2-0.  They'll need more of today's good fortune and less of what they did over their previous 21 road games to avoid becoming known as the Jekyll and Hyde of all Mets teams.