Is Matt Harvey's Absence Hurting Zack Wheeler?

Zack Wheeler ponders what life will be like without Matt Harvey by his side.

On June 18, 2013, Zack Wheeler made his highly anticipated major league debut in the second game of a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves.  Wheeler's opening act, Matt Harvey, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out a career-high 13 batters in the Mets' 4-3 first game victory.  Wheeler then went out and didn't allow a single run in his start, pitching six shutout innings of four-hit ball in the Mets' 6-1 win in the nightcap.  The evening was billed as Super Tuesday, a night Mets fans had been waiting for since Carlos Beltran was traded to San Francisco for Wheeler in 2011.

Wheeler suffered a few rookie bumps and bruises in his next two starts, but recovered quickly, going 6-2 with a 2.96 ERA in his next 11 starts.  In those starts, covering the months of July and August, Wheeler struck out 59 batters and walked 24.  Control had always been an issue with Wheeler in the minors, but in his strong 11-start stretch, he walked more than three batters in a game just once.  Wheeler also showed durability and an ability to keep his pitch count per inning down, as he pitched six or more innings in eight of the 11 starts, while averaging 16.8 pitches per inning.

Matt Harvey, on the other hand, pitched beautifully throughout the 2013 season.  But when he allowed 13 hits to the Detroit Tigers in 6⅔ innings on August 24, it caused concern that something was wrong with the Mets' All-Star Game starter.  The effort against the Tigers was part of a three-start stretch in which the normally unhittable Harvey allowed 27 hits in 18⅔ innings.  In addition, Harvey wasn't getting strike three as often as he was earlier in the season.  After striking out 178 batters in his first 159⅔ innings, Harvey managed just 13 punchouts in his last three starts, or as many as he had in his Super Tuesday start against the Braves in June.

Soon after his start against the Tigers on August 24, it was revealed that Harvey had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.  By the time the calendar had turned to September, Harvey's season was done.  And a month later, when Harvey decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, his 2014 campaign was wiped out as well.

Once it was known that Harvey would not be around to pitch for quite some time, Wheeler's fortunes began to turn.  Wheeler was 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA through his last start in August.  But without Harvey to compete with in the rotation, Wheeler had a poor month of September.  Wheeler was 0-2 in three starts and walked as many batters (12) as he struck out.  After posting a 1.25 WHIP in July and August, Wheeler allowed 28 baserunners in his three September starts for a 1.65 WHIP.

Some of the misfortune in September could be attributed to Wheeler's workload.  After all, prior to 2013, Wheeler had never pitched more than 149 innings in any minor league season.  He surpassed that total in his final start in August and finished the year with 168⅔ innings between the minors and majors.  That could help explain Wheeler's subpar finish after Harvey's season was done.  But Wheeler, like every other pitcher, began the 2014 season at zero innings.  To what do we attribute his poor pitching this year?

In ten starts this season, Wheeler has pitched just 56⅓ innings, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.  After a 2013 campaign in which Wheeler allowed opponents to bat .243 against him and reach base at a .327 clip, this year's batters are hitting .271 and have a .355 on-base percentage against Wheeler.  Wheeler has also needed to throw 1,003 pitches to get through those 56⅓ innings - an average of nearly 18 pitches per inning.  In four of his ten starts this year, Wheeler has tossed 110 or more pitches.  He has yet to pitch more than 6⅔ innings in any of those starts.  In 2013, Wheeler pitched at least 6⅔ innings six times.  He threw 110 pitches just once in those six starts.

Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler were supposed to be a modern-day version of Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman, leading a young pitching staff to victory and erasing half a decade of frustration in Flushing.  But Harvey is now lost for the 2014 season and Wheeler just looks lost on the mound.  There is another parallel between the Harvey/Wheeler duo and the Seaver/Koosman combo.  When Seaver was traded to Cincinnati on June 15, 1977, Koosman suffered greatly on the mound.

Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman, during happier times with the Mets.  (Photo by D.R. Burke/The Sporting News)

Prior to the Midnight Massacre, Koosman had begun the 1977 season with a 5-6 record and 2.82 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a .208/.285/.299 slash line.  After Seaver's departure, Koosman went 3-14 with a 4.02 ERA, allowing hitters to put up a .250/.313/.371 slash line.  In 1978, Koosman's only full season with the Mets without Seaver, he had arguably his worst full season as a Met, going 3-15 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

In one and a half seasons without Seaver by his side, Koosman went 6-29 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.  With Seaver around from the time both pitchers made their debuts in 1967 until The Franchise's trade a decade later, Koosman posted a 134-108 won-loss record with a 2.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Clearly, Koosman was far more effective when he had a teammate like Seaver to compete with.  He was a totally different entity when he didn't share a dugout with Seaver.

This analogy doesn't just apply to dynamic duos in baseball.  Take the case of Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan in the NBA.  Just like Koosman was a great pitcher but was always second fiddle to Seaver, Pippen became a Hall of Famer despite rarely being the best player on his own team.  During the Chicago Bulls' first three championships from 1991 to 1993, Pippen connected on 50.0% of his shots and made 71.4% of his free throws.  When Jordan retired for the first time, Pippen was forced to become the go-to guy in Chicago and his averages suffered.  During the '93-'94 season and '94-'95 campaign, Pippen made just 48.5% of his shots and his free throw percentage dropped to a below-average 68.5%.  Once Jordan came back, the Bulls won three more titles and Pippen became more effective, but after the Bulls broke up the band following their sixth championship in eight seasons, Pippen suffered.  After averaging over 20 points per game in his last eight seasons in Chicago, Pippen averaged just 11.5 PPG during his final six campaigns in the NBA.  His shooting also suffered, as he made just 43.6% of his shots from the field after winning his final championship in Chicago.

With Jordan, Pippen won six championships and played most effectively.  Without him, he made it past the second round of the playoffs just once and put too much pressure upon himself to be the same player he was when Jordan was with him on the court.  The same could be said for Jerry Koosman when Seaver was his teammate on the Mets and when he wasn't.  And now it appears Matt Harvey's absence could indirectly be affecting Zack Wheeler's performances on the mound.

Zack Wheeler has always been a very good pitcher since he was first drafted by the San Francisco Giants in 2009.  But he doesn't project the dominant persona of a Matt Harvey on the mound.  Harvey was always meant to be the big man on campus, and Wheeler was supposed to complement him as the No. 2 guy.  As a one-two punch in 2013, Harvey and Wheeler performed very well together, giving Mets fans hopes that the 2014 season would be the year the team finally turned it around.

But then Harvey suffered an injury that ended his 2013 season prematurely and erased his 2014 campaign completely.  That left Wheeler alone on the mound and thrust him into the spotlight once reserved for Harvey.  Wheeler has been less effective without Harvey by his side, just like Koosman and Pippen were less successful once their legendary teammates weren't there to push them to do better things.

Zack Wheeler is still a good pitcher.  But he's much better when he's just "one of the guys" and not "the guy".  The Mets will be better in 2015 when Matt Harvey returns to the mound.  Let's hope we can say the same for Zack Wheeler.
 

Death. Taxes. Beltran.

Go crazy, folks!  Go crazy!

Some people live for the big game.  Joe Montana saved his best efforts for the many NFC Championship Games and Super Bowls he won.  Michael Jordan was excellent at sinking clutch shots and the spirits of opposing teams in his six NBA Finals victories.  (I'm a Utah Jazz fan.  I should know.)  And then there's one Carlos Ivan Beltran.

Carlos Beltran has never been a player who has sought the spotlight.  But come October, the spotlight has always found him.  And how could it not?  After all, he may just be the best postseason baseball player in history.

On Friday night (and early Saturday morning), Beltran provided all the offense for the Cardinals and prevented the Dodgers from producing some offense of their own.  In the third inning, Beltran doubled above the outstretched glove of Andre Ethier to plate the tying runs.  The game was still tied when Mark Ellis hit a one-out triple for the Dodgers in the tenth inning.  But Carlos Beltran caught Michael Young's shallow fly ball and fired a perfect throw to catcher Yadier Molina to nail Ellis at the plate.  Beltran kept the game tied in the 10th.  He untied it in the 13th.

With two men on and one out, Beltran line a Kenley Jansen offering down the right field line to score the winning run for the Cardinals - a hit that would have scored both base runners had the first run not ended the game.

That's not the first time Beltran has driven in every run his team scored in a postseason game.  It's actually the fourth time, and the second time he's done it in a victory.   Beltran's two-run homer in Game 1 of the 2006 NLCS gave the Mets all the runs they would need in a 2-0 win over the Cardinals.  (Without it, the Mets might never have made it to a Game 7.)  Beltran also drove in the only run scored by St. Louis in Game 4 of the 2012 NLDS , a 2-1 loss to Washington.  In addition, Beltran homered and drove in all three runs for the Cards in their 5-3 defeat against Pittsburgh in Game 3 of this year's division series.

Hey, someone's got to pick up the slack when his teammates aren't doing their part.  And who better to do that than Carlos Beltran?

Let's look at Beltran's career numbers in the postseason, or rather, let's marvel at them.

Three is a magic number.  Yes, it is.  It's a magic number.

Beltran turned in a postseason performance for the ages with the Astros in 2004, batting .435 with 11 extra-base hits (eight homers, three doubles), 14 RBI, 21 runs scored and six stolen bases in 12 games.  He reached base a whopping 30 times in those dozen contests and recorded a 1.557 OPS - a number that looks like a typo if we weren't talking about Carlos Beltran.

In 2006, Beltran continued to rake the ball in the postseason.  Beltran was held without a hit in his first two playoff games with the Mets, but still reached base four times in the dual victories over the Dodgers.  After his two oh-fers, Beltran batted .323 over the Mets' next eight playoff games, collecting three homers and five RBI.  He also continued to score better than one run per game, as he crossed the plate nine times in those eight games.  And once again, his OPS remained at an otherworldly level, as Beltran registered an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of 1.062 in those final eight games.

After a five-year playoff absence (which surely made opposing pitchers quite happy), Beltran returned to the playoffs in 2012 as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.  What did he do in 12 postseason games with the Redbirds?  He absolutely raked it.  Beltran batted .357 with nine extra-base hits (six doubles, three homers), six RBI and eight runs scored.  He also reached base 22 times in the 12 games and had a 1.154 OPS.  And lest ye forget, in the fifth and deciding game of the division series, Beltran started the pivotal ninth inning rally against the Nats with a double and scored when Daniel Descalso hit a game-tying two-run single.  That leadoff two-base hit in the ninth was the fifth time Beltran reached base in the game.

That brings us to this year.  Fourth verse, same as the first (and second ... and third).  In six games versus the Pirates and Dodgers, Beltran has reached base nine times and driven in nine runs, including all three runs in Friday's Game 1 victory over Los Angeles.  He has also made excellent contact in this year's postseason, striking out just two times in 27 plate appearances.

To sum it all up, Beltran is batting .345 in 40 career postseason games.  He has reached base an incredible 80 times in those 40 games and has 28 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs.  His .750 slugging percentage is the third-highest mark in postseason history and his 1.199 career OPS ranks fifth.  Only seven players have hit more postseason home runs than Beltran, but all seven (Manny Ramirez, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, Jim Thome) needed at least 267 postseason plate appearances to show off their prodigious power.  Beltran has come to the plate a mere 178 times.  And just think, Beltran has never gotten the opportunity to add to those tremendous postseason numbers in a World Series game.  But that might change this season.  And Beltran might have a lot to do with it.

There are very few sure things in life.  One is death, as it will come for all of us eventually.  Another is taxes, as even Jerry Koosman and Pete Rose couldn't evade the IRS.  But if there can be only one other certainty in life, it has to be that Carlos Beltran will turn the postseason into a one-man wrecking crew.  He's not perfect (who put that Crazy Glue on his bat before Wainwright's 0-2 curveball?), but he's as close to being perfect on the October stage as any player in baseball history.

Death.  Taxes.  Beltran.  Is there anything more certain in life?