Joey's Soapbox: My 2014 Not-So-Biased World Series Pick

Hello, everyone.  This is your favorite Studious Metsimus prognosticator, Joey Beartran.  Today, I'm sad to report that it's that time of year again.  The end of the baseball season is upon us, and it'll be the 28th consecutive year that doesn't end with the Mets raising the World Series trophy and Keith Hernandez recovering from a hangover.

But just because the Mets aren't playing for all the marbles doesn't mean I can't suggest which team you should wager your marbles on.

The 2014 World Series features a playoff-experienced San Francisco Giants team and the new kids on the playoff block, the Kansas City Royals, a team that has shown the right stuff in becoming the first team to win eight straight games to start a postseason.  It's the second time that both World Series participants are wild card teams (the Angels and Giants played in the first all-wild card Fall Classic in 2002) and the first time any wild card team has advanced to the World Series since the two-wild card format was instituted in 2012.

It's the culmination of everything the Giants and Royals have played for since the start of the season.  It's the 2014 World Series.  And it's time I stop rambling and give you my expert pick to help you make an educated wager on the winner.  Just remember to compensate me properly when my pick wins you lots of dough.  (And for the record, I prefer my dough in the form of pizza.)

You take my World Series pick and I'll take sausage and extra cheese on my pizza.

World Series


San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals

This is the third time the Giants have played in the World Series since the Mets moved to Citi Field.  The last time the Royals played in the Fall Classic, the Mets had just one championship to their credit.  Needless to say, this is a matchup between two completely different teams when it comes to playoff experience.  But they're quite similar in just about everything else.

Neither team was known for the home run ball, as both the Giants and Royals had just two players with more than 16 homers.

Both teams had great starting pitchers and even better bullpens, as the Giants and Royals' bullpen ERA was nearly half a run lower than what their starters produced.

San Francisco and Kansas City also hit better with runners in scoring position (.267 for SF, .271 for KC) than they did overall (.255 for SF, .263 for KC).

Both teams advanced to the World Series by winning a plethora of close games.  The Giants won all three of their games against the Nationals in the division series by one run, then defeated the Cardinals by three runs or less in each of their four NLCS wins against them.  Meanwhile, seven of the Royals' eight postseason victories were either one-run wins or games in which Kansas City scored the winning run in its final at-bat.

Finally, both San Francisco and Kansas City have played excellent defense during their respective postseason runs, as the Giants have made three errors in ten games and the Royals have committed three miscues in eight contests.

But there is one HUGE difference between the two teams.  And it's in their legs.  San Francisco stole 56 bases during the regular season, good for last place in the National League.  No Giants player swiped more than 16 bags, and one of them was team co-leader Angel Pagan, who is inactive for the postseason.  Meanwhile, Kansas City's 153 steals led the American League.  Speedsters Jarrod Dyson (36 SB), Alcides Escobar (31 SB), Lorenzo Cain (28 SB) and Nori Aoki (17 SB) all would have led the Giants with their stolen base totals.

The Giants allowed 107 stolen bases during the regular season, a number that was surpassed by just four National League teams.  All four of those teams (San Diego, Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami) finished the season with losing records.  Giants catchers threw out a mere 32 would-be base stealers and had plenty of trouble with Royals' runners during their interleague matchup with Kansas City in August, throwing out just one base stealer in nine attempts.  In fact, in the final game of the three-game series sweep by the Royals, the Giants allowed seven stolen bases with nary a caught stealing to their credit.  It was just the seventh time in the last century that the Giants allowed as many as seven steals in one game and the fifth time it happened without any base stealers being caught.

Rk	Date	Team	Opp	Result	SB	CS
1	2014-08-10	KCR	SFG	W 7-4	7	0
2	2009-05-14	NYM	SFG	W 7-4	7	0
3	1999-04-13	HOU	SFG	W 7-3	7	1
4	1988-04-18	CIN	SFG	L 3-6	7	0
5	1983-07-27	STL	SFG	W 7-6	9	0
6	1946-09-08	BRO	NYG	W 11-3	8	1
7	1919-07-07 (1)	PHI	NYG	L 5-10	7	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/19/2014.

Jarrod Dyson is one of many Royals who should make the Giants nervous.  (Denny Medley/USA Today Sports)

It goes without saying that Buster Posey and all Giants pitchers will have to keep an eye on Kansas City's speedsters once they reach base.  And if too many of them reach base, it'll be sayonara for San Francisco.

The Giants can win their third championship if they continue their timely hitting and keep the Royals off first base.  It's hard enough to continue to come up with clutch hits.  It's almost impossible to keep the Royals from running wild on the bases.  San Francisco tried in August and was embarrassed in a three-game sweep.  This won't be a sweep by the Royals, but it also won't be a third title in five years for the Giants either.

Prediction:  Royals in 6.
 

Has Bruce Bochy Punched His Ticket To The Hall of Fame?

"The Giants win the pennant" are words Bruce Bochy has heard quite often.  (Paul Kitagaki/Sacramento Bee)

On Thursday, the San Francisco Giants defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series to clinch their third pennant in five seasons.  In doing so, the Giants became the first National League team since the Atlanta Braves of the mid-to-late 1990s to make it to the World Series three times in a five-year span.  (Atlanta won pennants in 1995, 1996 and 1999.)

Bruce Bochy has managed each of the Giants’ three pennant-winning teams and has been the team’s skipper since 2007.  His eight seasons at the helm in San Francisco came on the heels of a 12-year run as manager of the San Diego Padres from 1995 to 2006.  In those dozen campaigns, Bochy led the Padres to 951 victories, the most of any manager in San Diego's 46 years in the National League.  During Bochy’s tenure in San Diego, the Padres won four division titles and the 1998 National League pennant.  The other 15 managers in Padres’ history have combined to lead the team to one postseason appearance in 34 seasons (Dick Williams in 1984).

All told, Bochy has won 1,618 regular season games in two decades as a manager in the big leagues, leading his teams to seven postseason appearances, six division titles, four pennants and two World Series championships.  So the question must be asked.  If Bruce Bochy retired today, is he a Hall of Famer?  Why don't we let his numbers answer the question?

• Bochy is one of 24 men to manage in the majors for at least 20 seasons.  Seventeen of the other 23 are in the Hall of Fame.

• Bochy’s total of 1,618 victories has been surpassed by just 17 managers.  Twelve of those managers are in the Hall of Fame.  (By the end of the 2015 season, Bochy should pass two of those 17 managers, as he is only one win behind Ralph Houk and 53 victories behind Dusty Baker, who is not managing a big league team at the moment.)

• Bochy has led his teams to the postseason seven times, making him one of 15 managers to accomplish that feat.  Ten of the other 14 are in the Hall of Fame.  One of the four who isn’t in the Hall is Mike Scioscia, who is still an active manager with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

As impressive as the above accomplishments are, it doesn’t guarantee Hall of Fame enshrinement.  It just makes it more likely that Bochy will someday get the call from the Hall.

However, pennants and World Series championships are what managers are most remembered for, and Bochy has had his share of those as well.  If Bochy’s longevity, regular season win total and postseason appearances have improved his chances of making it to Cooperstown, then his accomplishments in October have almost certainly cemented his enshrinement.  Take a look at the chart below and consider the following two tidbits.

Rk	Mgr	Yrs	W	L	W-L%	W (post)	L (post)	W-L% (post)	Plyof App	WSwon	PennWon ▾
1	John McGraw HOF	33	2763	1948	.586	26	28	.481	9	3	10
2	Casey Stengel HOF	25	1905	1842	.508	37	26	.587	10	7	10
3	Connie Mack HOF	53	3731	3948	.486	24	19	.558	8	5	9
4	Joe McCarthy HOF	24	2125	1333	.615	26	13	.667	9	7	9
5	Walter Alston HOF	23	2040	1613	.558	23	21	.523	7	4	7
6	Miller Huggins HOF	17	1413	1134	.555	18	15	.545	6	3	6
7	Tony La Russa HOF	33	2728	2365	.536	70	58	.547	14	3	6
8	Joe Torre HOF	29	2326	1997	.538	84	58	.592	15	4	6
9	Harry Wright HOF	23	1225	885	.581	0	0		0	0	6
10	Sparky Anderson HOF	26	2194	1834	.545	34	21	.618	7	3	5
11	Cap Anson HOF	21	1295	947	.578	0	0		0	0	5
12	Bobby Cox HOF	29	2504	2001	.556	67	69	.493	16	1	5
13	Ned Hanlon HOF	19	1313	1164	.530	0	0		0	0	5
14	Frank Selee HOF	16	1284	862	.598	0	0		0	0	5
15	Frank Chance HOF	11	946	648	.593	11	9	.550	4	2	4
16	Fred Clarke HOF	19	1602	1181	.576	7	8	.467	2	1	4
17	Charlie Comiskey HOF	12	840	541	.608	0	0		0	1	4
18	Tom Lasorda HOF	21	1599	1439	.526	31	30	.508	7	2	4
19	Bill McKechnie HOF	25	1896	1723	.524	8	14	.364	4	2	4
20	Billy Southworth HOF	13	1044	704	.597	11	11	.500	4	2	4
21	Earl Weaver HOF	17	1480	1060	.583	26	20	.565	6	1	4
22	Dick Williams HOF	21	1571	1451	.520	21	23	.477	5	2	4
23	Bruce Bochy	20	1618	1604	.502	38	27	.585	7	2	4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/17/2014.

Note:  Harry Wright, Cap Anson, Ned Hanlon, Frank Selee and Charlie Comiskey all won pennants before the advent of the modern World Series in 1903.  Comiskey's lone "World Series" victory came in 1886 in the American Association.

• Prior to the 2014 season, a total of 22 managers guided their teams to four of more league pennants.  Did you happen to notice the "HOF" next to their names?  That means all 22 of those managers are in the Hall of Fame.  By earning a World Series berth against the Royals, Bochy has just become the 23^rd manager to win four pennants, winning one in San Diego and three in San Francisco.

• Of the 22 managers who won four or more pennants, only nine of them won at least three World Series titles.  All nine are in the Hall of Fame.  With four wins against Kansas City in this year’s Fall Classic, Bochy will become the tenth manager to win three championships, doing so in just a five-year span with the Giants.

With 20 years of managerial experience, a ton of victories and more than a handful of trips to the playoffs, Bruce Bochy is certainly a viable candidate for the Hall of Fame.  But now that he’s won four pennants and is within a few wins of completing his trifecta of titles, enshrinement in Cooperstown is more than just likely.  It’s pretty much a certainty.

Bruce Bochy’s run as a big league manager isn’t quite over yet, but when he does decide to call it a career, he may as well pack his bags for Cooperstown.  The Hall of Fame should be the last stop in Bochy’s amazing post-playing career.
 

Song Tribute: Imagine (For John Lennon & Mets Fans)

Even the most casual of music fans knows the significance of December 8, 1980.  Thirty-two years ago today, the world lost a musical genius, as John Lennon was assassinated in front of his home on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.  The singer, songwriter and peace activist was taken from his family and fans at the young age of 40.

In the past, Studious Metsimus has written an assortment of song parodies, taking songs from various genres of music and warping them into humorous Mets-themed tunes.  But today, a song parody would not be appropriate.  Instead, we'd like to present a song tribute to the late, great John Lennon.

In 1971, the album "Imagine" was released.  The title track is arguably Lennon's most recognized post-Beatles song.  In honor of the 32nd anniversary of his death, here is our own version of the song.  Yes, it has Mets-themed lyrics, but these lyrics are positive and inspiring, similar to the message found in many of Lennon's songs.  Hopefully, it will serve as a fitting tribute to John Lennon and as a beacon of hope to Mets fans who never stop imagining what it would be like to win a championship.

Imagine the Mets in Game 7, it's easy if you try
Championship before us, pennant flying high
Imagine all the Mets fans
Cheering loud today

Imagine there's a win streak, it isn't hard to do
Nats and the Phils are done for, the Braves and Marlins too
Imagine all the Mets fans
With their team in first.

You...

You may say I'm a dreamer
That the day will never come
I hope someday you'll rejoice with us
When the World Series is won.

Imagine our obsession, I wonder if you can
Our need to be a winner, another title's the plan
Imagine all the Mets fans
Serious for the World

You...

You may say I'm a dreamer
That the day will never come
I hope someday you'll rejoice with us
When the World Series is won.

A Different Kind of Mets Top Ten Leaderboard (Pitchers)

As I was perusing through the Saturday New York Times sports section, I came across an article by Tyler Kepner on the recent signing of David Wright.  Kepner poses an interesting question when he asks: "Has there been a single important Met before this decade who did not play in the World Series?"

Of course, David Wright has never played in a World Series for the Mets, coming closest in 2006 when the Mets fell one game short of the Fall Classic.  But Kepner's article got me thinking about other Mets who performed well for the team but never got a chance to participate on baseball's greatest stage.

If you're a regular reader of Studious Metsimus, you know that I enjoy discussing the Mets' all-time leaderboards.  But what would those leaderboards look like if they consisted of only those players who never played in the World Series for the Mets?  It would look very interesting indeed, and in some cases, quite shocking.

So sit back, kick off your Mets slippers and enjoy this special Mets leaderboard, which lists the top ten in each pitching category using only Mets players who never appeared for the team in the World Series.  (Thanks to baseball-reference.com for the leaderboard assistance.)  You might need to borrow one of Davey Johnson's old bottles of Rolaids after reading the list.

(For the hitting leaders who never played in the World Series, please click here.)

Pitching Leaders For Mets Who Never Played In The World Series


Wins
 

Rank	Pitcher	Wins	Innings Pitched
1.	David Cone	81	1209.1
2.	Steve Trachsel	66	956.1
3.	Tom Glavine	61	1005.1
4.	Craig Swan	59	1230.2
5.	Mike Pelfrey	50	896.1
6.	Johan Santana	46	717.0
7.	Al Jackson	43	980.2
8.	Pat Zachry	41	741.2
T-9.	John Maine	39	542.0
T-9.	R.A. Dickey	39	616.2

Earned Run Average
 

Rank	Pitcher	ERA	Innings Pitched
1.	R.A. Dickey	2.95	616.2
2.	David Cone	3.13	1209.1
3.	Bret Saberhagen	3.16	524.1
4.	Johan Santana	3.18	717.0
5.	Frank Viola	3.31	566.1
6.	Jim McAndrew	3.54	729.2
7.	Pat Zachry	3.63	741.2
8.	Craig Swan	3.72	1230.2
9.	Ed Lynch	3.82	730.1
10.	Pete Falcone	3.91	607.2

Win-Loss Percentage
 

Rank	Pitcher	W-L Pct.	Innings Pitched
1.	David Cone	.614	1209.1
2.	R.A. Dickey	.582	616.2
3.	Pedro Martinez	.582	486.2
4.	Bret Saberhagen	.580	524.1
5.	Johan Santana	.575	717.0
6.	John Maine	.549	542.0
7.	Frank Viola	.543	566.1
8.	Steve Trachsel	.528	956.1
9.	Jonathon Niese	.522	561.0
10.	Tom Glavine	.521	1005.1

Walks Plus Hits Per Innings Pitched
 

Rank	Pitcher	WHIP	Innings Pitched
1.	Bret Saberhagen	1.079	524.1
2.	R.A. Dickey	1.150	616.2
3.	Jim McAndrew	1.184	729.2
4.	David Cone	1.192	1209.1
5.	Johan Santana	1.201	717.0
6.	Frank Viola	1.240	566.1
7.	Craig Swan	1.267	1230.2
8.	John Maine	1.312	542.0
9.	Jack Fisher	1.320	931.2
10.	Ed Lynch	1.332	730.1

Games Pitched
 

Rank	Pitcher	Games Pitched	Innings Pitched
1.	Pedro Feliciano	459	372.1
2.	Aaron Heilman	305	450.1
3.	Jeff Innis	288	360.0
4.	Bobby Parnell	249	256.1
5.	Craig Swan	229	1230.2
6.	Skip Lockwood	227	379.2
7.	Neil Allen	223	381.2
8.	David Cone	187	1209.1
9.	Randy Myers	185	240.0
T-10.	Bob Apodaca	184	361.1
T-10.	Al Jackson	184	980.2

Games Started
 

Rank	Pitcher	Games Started	Innings Pitched
1.	Craig Swan	184	1230.2
2.	David Cone	169	1209.1
3.	Tom Glavine	164	1005.1
4.	Steve Trachsel	160	956.1
5.	Mike Pelfrey	149	896.1
6.	Al Jackson	138	980.2
7.	Jack Fisher	133	931.2
8.	Pat Zachry	113	741.2
9.	Johan Santana	109	717.0
10.	Jim McAndrew	105	729.2

Strikeouts
 

Rank	Pitcher	Strikeouts	Innings Pitched
1.	David Cone	1172	1209.1
2.	Craig Swan	671	1230.2
3.	Johan Santana	607	717.0
4.	Steve Trachsel	580	956.1
5.	Al Jackson	561	980.2
6.	Tom Glavine	516	1005.1
7.	Mike Pelfrey	506	896.1
8.	Oliver Perez	494	520.0
9.	Jack Fisher	475	931.2
10.	Jonathon Niese	470	561.0

Saves
 

Rank	Pitcher	Saves	Innings Pitched
1.	Billy Wagner	101	189.2
2.	Francisco Rodriguez	83	168.0
3.	Neil Allen	69	381.2
4.	Skip Lockwood	65	379.2
5.	Braden Looper	57	142.2
6.	Randy Myers	56	240.0
7.	Bob Apodaca	26	361.1
8.	Danny Frisella	24	353.0
9.	Frank Francisco	23	42.1
T-10.	Cal Koonce	18	246.2
T-10.	Anthony Young	18	270.2