The Decline of Wright-ian Civilization

There's no arguing the facts.  David Wright is not the player he used to be.  (Photo by Nick Laham)

David Wright is in serious decline right now.  There's no other way to put it.  Since signing his eight-year, $138 million contract prior to the 2013 campaign, Wright has played in 233 games, batting .286 with 26 HR, 114 RBI, 111 runs scored and 23 stolen bases.  That's in nearly two full seasons of baseball, folks.  If you look at what Wright did in 2007 alone (.325, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 runs scored, 34 steals), it's quite clear that the Mets' third baseman has dropped off considerably at the plate.

In 2009, Wright's drop-off in the power department was attributed to the spaciousness of the newly-opened Citi Field.  Although Wright produced just 10 homers that season, he made up for it by batting .307.  He also smoked 39 doubles and stole 27 bags.  Five years later, Wright is having another powerless season (8 HR in 121 games through Friday), but he is not contributing in other facets of the game like he did in 2009.

Wright has just 26 doubles and no triples this year.  To put that in perspective, Wright has never completed a full season (min. 150 games played) with fewer than 36 doubles and he has yet to have a season (regardless of how many games he played) with nary a triple to his credit.  Wright's six steals in 2014 would also fall well short of his career-low over a full season.  The third sacker has never stolen fewer than 15 bases when he's played 150 or more games.  Even when he missed 60 games in 2011 with a stress fracture in his back, he still managed to swipe 13 bags.

For the year, Wright is batting .268 with 34 extra-base hits.  Only 26.4% of his 129 total hits have gone for extra bases.  Compare that to what he did in first ten seasons in the big leagues, when 38.0% of his hits were doubles, triples or homers.  In fact, in every season Wright has played at least 150 games, he's had a minimum of 64 extra-base hits.  He's barely halfway to that total now.  And he's only missed eight games this year, so barring injuries or an unexpected benching, Wright will play in at least 150 games in 2014 and come nowhere near his usual extra-base hit totals.

Now let's look at slugging percentage.  Rather, let's look at some of the slugging percentages put up by a few seemingly random big league hitters this year.  Then let's look at the guy listed at the bottom of the chart below.

Player	SLG	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB
Justin Turner	.448	253	223	37	71	15	1	4	29	5
Jose Altuve	.439	563	524	68	175	33	2	6	42	46
Brett Gardner	.439	533	460	77	125	18	7	15	52	19
Jose Reyes	.415	506	467	74	137	27	3	8	38	23
Coco Crisp	.405	401	341	57	88	20	3	8	42	16
Jacoby Ellsbury	.401	532	476	58	132	25	2	10	55	34
Denard Span	.399	539	491	76	147	34	6	1	25	27
Angel Pagan	.391	325	302	41	91	16	1	3	22	12
Billy Hamilton	.388	503	469	66	126	24	7	6	44	49
Kolten Wong	.388	327	304	39	75	10	3	9	33	17
Dee Gordon	.383	530	491	70	142	18	11	2	27	57
Rougned Odor	.379	295	272	25	69	9	5	5	27	2
Endy Chavez	.374	206	187	19	52	8	2	2	16	4
David Wright	.371	530	482	48	129	26	0	8	56	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2014.

After posting a .506 career slugging percentage from 2004-2013, David Wright is slugging just .371 this year.  That's lower than the slugging percentages put up by non-slugging speedsters like Jose Altuve, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span, Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.

Even Jose Reyes - who's not having a typical Reyes season with three triples and 23 steals in over 500 plate appearances - is slugging higher than his former infield partner.  And speaking of former Mets, did you notice Justin Turner, Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez on the list as well?

Let's put it this way.  Wong is better than Wright (Kolten is better at slugging percentage, that is), and Rougned Odor is also a better "slugger" this year than the Mets third baseman.  Clearly, when Odor beats Wright, then you know Wright's season stinks.

All jokes aside, there is nothing funny about David Wright's decline in 2014.  The seeds were planted in 2009 when Wright's opposite field approach at Shea Stadium failed to translate to Citi Field's cavernous power alleys.  Then the normally injury-free Wright began to miss extended periods of time, missing a total of 110 games in 2011 and 2013.  This year, Wright has managed to stay on the field, but his batting average is suffering.  And since he's getting mostly singles when he does hit, his slugging percentage is also taking an unsightly dip.  And we haven't really gotten into the drop in stolen bases.  But when Wright's stolen base total (6) is three less than the number put up by soon-to-be-retired octogenarian Yankee captain Derek Jeter (9), then nothing else needs to be said on that topic.

David Wright still has six years and $107 million left on his contract.  By the time that contract expires, Wright's name should be at the top of just about every lifetime offensive category for the Mets.  But if Wright's 2014 offensive output becomes the norm over those six remaining seasons, did the Mets really get what they paid for?  It's a question the Mets front office is going to have to deal with quite a bit if the decline of Wright-ian civilization continues.