Monday, October 2, 2017

Joey's Soapbox: My 2017 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

I wonder who I'm picking to win the N.L. Wild Card game.  If only I had a sign to help me...

Hey, how's everybody doing?  I'm playoff prognosticator Joey Beartran and I'm ready for some postseason baseball.  This is the first season since 2014 that the Mets were not invited to the playoff party but many players who called Flushing home at some point in 2017 did receive - and accept - their invitations.

The Indians and Dodgers, owners of the best regular season records in their respective leagues, are bringing Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, respectively, to the postseason.  Addison Reed will be coming out of the bullpen for the A.L. East champion Red Sox.  Even Rene Rivera could crack the defending World Series champion Cubs' 25-man postseason roster.

Last year, the Yankees stayed home and the Mets played past their 162nd game.  This year, New York (AL) is hosting the Minnesota Twins in the wild card game and New York (NL) is busy showing off videos of Jacob deGrom's haircut.  Seriously, that's how the Mets are making news this October.  (Well, that and Terry Collins saying adios to Mets fans.)

Say it ain't so, Jake!  (Screen grab courtesy of Jose Reyes' Snapchat)

So since we don't have meaningful Mets baseball games until next March 29, we should probably focus on the wild card games set for Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Will the Yankees win their first postseason game since Zach Lutz was a Met?  Will the Twins finally end their 12-game postseason losing streak?  Will the Rockies ride Chuck Nazty to the division series?  Or will Arizona get their revenge on Colorado for the 2007 NLCS?

There's only one way to know what's going to happen before it happens.  And that's by reading my wild card picks below; picks that are not biased at all.  Trust me.  I'm an expert.


American League Wild Card Game


Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

The Twins have never defeated the Yankees in a postseason series, having dropped the ALDS to the Bronx Bummers in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010.  More recently, New York won all three games played against Minnesota at Yankee Stadium in 2017.  And to make matters worse for the Twins, their starting pitcher for the wild card game - Ervin Santana - has an 0-5 record with a 6.43 ERA in six career starts at the new House That Juice Built.

For the Yankees, starting pitcher Luis Severino struck out 230 batters during the regular season, which was tied for the third-highest total in Yankees history.  In addition, his 153 ERA+ made him the first Yankees starting pitcher to register an ERA+ over 150 since David Cone had a 159 ERA+ in 1997.

I heart Bart.  (Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
The Yankees go into the postseason on a roll, having won 21 of their last 30 games.  The Twins were a .500 team in September, going 14-14 in the month.  New York has ten-foot tall Aaron Judge clubbing everything out of sight.  Minnesota's top home run hitter is Brian Dozier, who's half the size of Judge and hit 18 fewer homers.  Everything seems to be coming up Yankees in this game, right?

Nah.

Santana wins his first game at the new Yankee Stadium, Miguel Sanó does his best David Ortiz impression (but from the right side of the plate) and Bartolo Colón's career lives to see another round.

Prediction: Minnesota will advance to the ALDS.


National League Wild Card Game


Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Both Colorado and Arizona reversed their fortunes in 2017.  Literally.  The Rockies improved their record from 75-87 to 87-75, while the D-Backs went from 69-93 to 93-69.  But neither team came within striking distance of the first place Dodgers, necessitating this one-game face-off for the right to be swept by Justin Turner and Friends.

Last year, the Mets played in this game and ran into a buzzsaw on the mound in Madison Bumgarner.  This season, Jon Gray and Zack Greinke will try to be this year's Bumgarner.  It's too bad both pitchers will fail, as this game will be a Wild West shootout.

Gray will have to control the bats of Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez.  It will not go smoothly.  Greinke, on the other hand, will be staring down Nolan Arenado and batting champion Charlie Blackmon, among others.  Because of his reputation, Greinke will be left in the game a little too long.  Like five or six runs on the scoreboard too long.

Arizona may have finished ahead of Colorado in the standings, but the Rockies will finish ahead of the Diamondbacks in this game.  And if Arizona ordered a large number of churro dogs in anticipation of a lengthy postseason run, I know someone who can help them reduce their inventory.


Prediction: Colorado will advance to the NLDS.



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