Why One Series Win Against the Nats Could Do Wonders For the Mets' Postseason Chances

With the Mets losing and the Nationals winning on Sunday, the two teams will head into their critical three-game showdown this afternoon with New York leading the division by four games.  The teams will also face each other at Citi Field for a three-game series in Games No. 160, 161 and 162.  That means both teams still have to play 20 games against other teams.

Mets fans know the story of being seven games up with 17 to play in 2007.  New York went on to go 5-12 in their final 17 affairs, while the Phillies finished strongly at 13-4 to claim the NL East by one game.  The Mets and Phillies played each other three times during the season's final 17 games, with Philadelphia taking all three games.  That means the Mets still lost nine of the other 14 games they played while the Phillies took 10 of 14 against their non-Metsian opponents.  (New York also lost four straight to the Phillies in late August, before "seven-games-up-with-seventeen-to-play" became a thing.)

The main reason the Mets failed to hold on to the division lead in 2007 was their pitching.  Mets pitchers allowed a whopping 115 runs in the team's final 17 games, allowing six or more runs in 11 of those contests.  The offense, which scored 98 runs in the 17 games (an average of 5.8 runs per game), couldn't overcome the shoddy pitching, as the Mets scored six or more runs ten times in the 17 games, but were only able to win half of those ten affairs.

In 2015, the Mets have far superior pitching to their counterparts from eight years ago.  The 2007 squad had Oliver Perez leading the team with a 3.56 ERA and Orlando Hernandez was the only starting pitcher with a WHIP under 1.27.  This year's Mets have three starters (Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard) who have ERAs lower than Perez's team-leading mark in 2007, and only Jonathon Niese has a WHIP higher than the one posted by El Duque eight years ago.

In addition, the current Mets have Jeurys Familia (36 saves, 1.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) closing out games, while the 2007 club had Billy Wagner (34 saves, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), who suffered from back spasms at the end of the season, but still pitched through the pain and it showed.  Wagner pitched to a 6.91 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in the team's last 40 games, blowing three saves.

The 2015 Mets will probably not allow almost seven runs per game over the final 26 games like the '07 squad allowed in their last seventeen, especially considering that this year's pitchers have allowed three runs or less in 74 of their first 136 games.  (The '07 club allowed four runs or more in 91 of their 162 games.)  So they probably won't have a catastrophic season-ending slump - one that would allow them to lose 12 of their last 17 games, a la the 2007 team.

But let's say the Mets just play .500 ball in the 20 games in which they're not playing the Nationals.  That would give them 85 wins in 156 games.  Now let's look at what the Nationals would have to do in their other games, considering each win-loss scenario in their final six games against the Mets and assuming the Mets win just half of their other 20 games.


Nationals go 6-0 against the Mets:
Mets finish with an 85-77 record.
Washington would need to go 9-11 in their other 20 games to win the division with an 86-76 record.

Nationals go 5-1 against the Mets:
Mets finish with an 86-76 record.
Washington would need to go 11-9 in their other 20 games to win the division with an 87-75 record.

Nationals go 4-2 against the Mets:
Mets finish with an 87-75 record.
Washington would need to go 13-7 in their other 20 games to win the division with an 88-74 record.

Nationals split the six games against the Mets:
Mets finish with an 88-74 record.
Washington would need to go 15-5 in their other 20 games to win the division with an 89-73 record.

Nationals go 2-4 against the Mets:
Mets finish with an 89-73 record.
Washington would need to go 17-3 in their other 20 games to win the division with a 90-70 record.

Nationals go 1-5 against the Mets:
Mets finish with a 90-72 record.
Washington would need to go 19-1 in their other games to win the division with a 91-71 record.

Nationals go 0-6 against the Mets:
Mets finish with a 91-71 record.
Washington would be golfing after October 4 regardless of how they fare in the other 20 games.


Of course, the Mets could somehow finish with a losing record in the 20 games they're not facing Washington, just as they could finish with a winning record in those games.  But seven of those 20 games are against the Atlanta Braves - a team that is on a run of historically bad proportions.  Atlanta is 12-41 in its last 53 games.  Their .226 winning percentage in those games - which add up to approximately one-third of the season - is lower than the .250 winning percentage posted by the 1962 Mets.  Yeah, it's been that bad in Tomahawk Town.

Some of you might say, "but the Mets lost a whole bunch of games to the Nats and Marlins down the stretch in 2007, when both teams were under .500."  That's true.  That Mets team went 5-8 against Washington and the then-Florida Marlins.  But those Nats and Marlins teams weren't 2015 Braves bad.  This year's Atlanta squad could lose 100 games and finish with the worst record in baseball.  The 2007 Nationals and Marlins won 73 games and 71 games, respectively.  There's no way - I repeat - NO WAY the Mets lose more than a game or two, if that many, against the Braves down the stretch this year.

With the team's excellent pitching, and with so many games left against the struggling Braves, it would be hard to fathom a sub-.500 record for the Mets when they're not facing Washington.  Losing five of six to Washington or even worse, a six-game sweep, in the remaining matchups between the two NL East contenders would be cause for concern.

If the Mets win just one game against the Nationals, that would force Washington to play .550 ball over their remaining 20 games, which is quite possible, assuming the Mets play .500 ball in their other 20 games.  However, should the Mets win just one out of three in each series against the Nationals (two total wins in the six games between the two teams), Washington would have to play .650 ball in their other games.  A split between the two teams and Washington would have to go on a run reminiscent of what the Phillies did in 2007.

The Mets couldn't defeat the Phillies down the stretch in 2007.  That cost them the division more than losing to the Nationals and Marlins did.  All the Mets have to do is win one series against the Nationals over the final month of the 2015 campaign and it might not matter what either NL East contender does in their other games.

Even with the Mets losing 2½ games in the standings over the last four days, the division title is still very much within the Mets' grasp.  Only a National disaster could keep the Mets from playing past Game No. 162.
 

Pennant Races Are Heating Up On Labor Day

Photo by William Perlman/The Star-Ledger

Today is Labor Day, a day that celebrates the sacrifices and contributions of the men and women in the American work force.  But to baseball fans, it's a different kind of holiday, as it marks the unofficial beginning of the final month of the season, a time when pennant races and wild card chases heat up just as summer temperatures cool down.

No one will soon forget the incredible final month of the 2011 season, especially Game No. 162, when four games decided the wild card winners in each league.  It seemed like the entire country was going back and forth between Cardinals-Astros, Braves-Phillies, Rays-Yankees and Red Sox-Orioles.

With the addition of an extra wild card team in each league this year, those games would have been meaningless, as both the Cardinals and Braves would have made the playoffs in the National League and the Rays and Red Sox would have qualified in the American League, regardless of the outcomes of their 162nd games.  But just because there is an extra wild card to be won in either league doesn't mean this September is going to be any less exciting than last September.  In fact, it might be more compelling this year.

In the American League, the upstart Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles currently hold the two wild card spots.  But the Rays are only 1½ games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, while the Angels are only 3½ games back.  In the American League Central, the Tigers and White Sox are both two games behind the Orioles, but both teams are fighting it out for the division title.

No first-place team in the junior circuit has a lead in their division of more than three games.  The Yankees lead the East by two games over Baltimore.  The Tigers and White Sox are deadlocked atop the Central.  The two-time defending American League champion Texas Rangers have the best record in the league, but are clinging to a three-game division lead over the A's.

This is how tight the division and wild card races are.  The Rangers currently have the top seed in the American League with a 79-54 record.  The Tampa Bay Rays are only 6½ games behind them with a 73-61 mark.  But the Rays would fail to qualify for the postseason if the season ended today, while the Rangers would have home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.

Half of the fourteen teams in the American League are either in first place or within 3½ games of first.  Another team, the Los Angeles Angels, are not as close to the division lead, but are within 3½ games of the second wild card.  That's eight of the 14 teams still very much alive in the American League playoff race.

Both leagues have plenty of teams fighting it out for playoff spots.

The National League division races aren't as tight as the ones in the American League, with Washington leading the East by 6½ games, Cincinnati holding a 9½-game lead in the Central and San Francisco taking command of the West by 4½ games, but there are still many teams alive for the wild card spots.

As of today, the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals are the holders of the two wild card spots in the National League.  But the 72-62 Cardinals have two teams appearing in their rear view mirror, as the 72-63 Dodgers (a mere half-game back) and 70-63 Pirates (1½ games back) are trying to send the defending World Series champions home.

Speaking of the defending World Series champions, on Labor Day last year, the Cardinals were 8½ games behind the Braves for the wild card.  As we all know, the Cardinals made up that entire deficit and passed the Braves on the final day of the regular season on their way to an unexpected World Series title.  Why is this relevant in 2012?  Because that gives hope to the Milwaukee Brewers (6½ games behind St. Louis), Arizona Diamondbacks (also 6½ games back) and yes, even the New York Mets, who are currently eight games behind St. Louis for the second wild card spot entering their three-game series against the Redbirds today.

Thirty teams.  Ten playoff spots.  Including the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Mets, there are 16 teams within eight games of one of those ten playoff spots.  That's more than half of major league baseball still trying to crash the postseason party.

Summer might be coming to an end, but the heat isn't going away from the playoff races in both leagues.  In fact, it looks like it's only going to get hotter between now and Game No. 162.  Fasten your seatbelts.  It's going to be one heck of a ride.