Don't Give Arroyo a Blue & Orange Hooded Sweatshirt

The Mets need to add a starting pitcher or two.  That much is certain.  One of the names that keeps popping up as a potential target is Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo has been durable, making at least 32 starts in each of his last nine seasons.  And the Mets certainly need an innings-eater in 2014, especially with Matt Harvey not being able to feed himself any frames next year.  But should the Mets make Arroyo one of their top free agent targets this offseason?  If it were solely up to me, I think the Mets would be shama-lama-ding-dongs if they signed him.  Here's why.

Bronson Arroyo had excellent run support in Cincinnati.  From 2011 to 2013, Arroyo had a 4.19 ERA and allowed 104 home runs.  But he still posted a winning record (35-34) in those three seasons.  During those three seasons, Arroyo had the likes of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce in the starting lineup.  The Mets just added .235 career hitter Chris Young to become one of their top sluggers.  Needless to say, an ERA north of 4.00 won't cut it when you're depending on the Mets' lineup to give you run support.  Just ask Jeremy Hefner, who had a 4.34 ERA in 2013, but only won four of his 23 starts.

With Matt Harvey gone for the year, the Mets don't have a starting pitcher other than Zack Wheeler who can rack up strikeouts.  (Harvey and Wheeler were the only Mets starters who averaged better than 7.0 K/9 IP.)  Bronson Arroyo averaged exactly 7.0 K/9 IP during his first three seasons in Cincinnati.  But since 2009, Arroyo has failed to surpass 130 strikeouts in any season, averaging just 5.3 K/9 IP over his last 162 starts.  It's not as if Arroyo isn't throwing strikes.  It's just that his strikes aren't missing bats.  And that brings us to...

Those hits.  Oh, those hits.  From 2006 to 2010, Arroyo allowed opposing hitters to bat .259 against him.  That number jumped to .271 from 2011 to 2013.  He also failed to allow more than 31 homers in any season from 2006 to 2010.  But in the last three seasons, he has allowed more than 31 homers twice.  Arroyo gave up 46 dingers in 2011 and 32 long balls in 2013.  In both of those seasons, he led the league in taters served.

So let's talk about those taters.  Bronson Arroyo pitched eight years in Cincinnati.  That's two years short of a decade.  A total of 12 pitchers suited up for the Reds for at least a decade.  But none of them gave up as many homers as the 252 allowed by Arroyo.  In fact, prior to Arroyo, only one other pitcher had served up as many as 200 home runs as a member of the Reds.  That would be Tom Browning, who watched 234 balls sail over the wall.  However, Browning pitched 11 years in Cincinnati, making 33 more starts than Arroyo.  Yet Arroyo still gave up 18 more homers than Browning.  For a team that has been around since before the creation of the National League in 1876, Arroyo is the Reds' all-time gopher ball king.  That's not exactly something to be proud of.

Staying on the topic of home runs, it's true that Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark is a home run hitter's haven.  But Arroyo gave up nearly as many home runs on the road as he did at home.  Of the 252 homers Arroyo allowed as a member of the Reds, 130 were hit in Cincinnati, while 122 were slugged on the road.  He also has allowed five home runs at spacious Citi Field.  In just 31 innings of work.  To Mets hitters.  Former Met Jason Tyner could probably hit a home run against Arroyo if he was afforded the opportunity.

Bronson Arroyo has allowed five homers in 31 innings at Citi Field to guys who can't hit homers.

Finally, as great as Arroyo has been against the Mets in his career (8-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), he has been horrible versus the rest of the NL East.  Against the Braves, Marlins, Phillies and Nationals, Arroyo is 15-19 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  Arroyo has made 11 starts against the lowly Marlins.  He's beaten them once.  And remember that run support we were talking about before?  He had plenty of that against the Braves.  He holds a fairly impressive 7-4 career record versus Atlanta, but is also the owner of a 5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP against the team that would become his new division rival.  Should he become a Met, he'd lose the opportunity to face the team in the division he's had the most personal success against.  And he'd also gain more starts against the teams he's been below average against.

Without question, the Mets need to fill a few holes in the starting rotation prior to Opening Day.  But as consistent as Bronson Arroyo has been over the past decade, that consistency doesn't bode well for him should he become a Met.  He'd be losing that great offensive support he's had since 2006 in Cincinnati and he'd be moving to a division where he'd have to face some of his nemeses more often.

The Mets should look elsewhere when considering which starting pitcher they'd like to bring into the fold.  They should only sign Bronson Arroyo if they have a death wish for 2014.
 

Decisions, Decisions: Mets Starters Didn't Get Them

No-decisions.  Starting pitchers for the Mets got quite used to them in 2013.  Dillon Gee led the team with 23 decisions, followed by Jonathon Niese with only 16.  A dozen pitchers started games for the Mets this past season, combining to record 57 no-decisions.

Excluding the strike seasons of 1981, 1994 and 1995, there has never been a season in franchise history in which no starting pitcher earned 20 decisions.  But two teams came close.  In 1982, Mike Scott led the club in decisions with exactly 20, going 7-13 for the last place Mets.  Of course, that was also the year manager George Bamberger decided to use all of his starters out of the bullpen as well.

No starting pitcher made more than 24 starts for the Mets in 1982, as Charlie Puleo (24 starts, 12 relief appearances), Pete Falcone (23 starts, 17 relief appearances), Mike Scott (22 starts, 15 relief appearances), Craig Swan (21 starts, 16 relief appearances), Randy Jones (20 starts, 8 relief appearances), Pat Zachry (16 starts, 20 relief appearances) and Ed Lynch (12 starts, 31 relief appearances) were all used by Bamberger in every possible way, including save opportunities.  Of the seven pitchers listed above, only Randy Jones failed to earn a save.

The only other team in Mets history to have only one starting pitcher record exactly 20 decisions in a non-strike-shortened season was the 1980 squad.  Like Scott two years later, Ray Burris went 7-13 for the 1980 Mets.  But unlike Scott and his fellow moundsmen, all of Burris' 29 appearances in 1980 came as a starting pitcher.

For the record, Bobby Jones led the 1994 Mets with only 19 decisions, but that season came to an abrupt end in mid-August due to a players' strike.  In each of the other two strike-shortened seasons (1981, 1995), one Met did reach 20 decisions.  Pat Zachry went 7-14 for the 1981 club, while Bobby Jones finished 10-10 for the 1995 squad.

With 57 no-decisions in 2013, the Mets finished way up in the top ten for most no-decisions for a starting staff in team history.  Below is the current top ten.

Year	No-Decisions	Starting Pitchers With The Most Decisions
1980	65	Ray Burris (20), Mark Bomback (18)
1979	57	Craig Swan (27), Pete Falcone (20)
2013	57	Dillon Gee (23), Jonathon Niese (16)
1978	56	Nino Espinosa (26), Jerry Koosman (18)
2008	56	Mike Pelfrey (24), Johan Santana (23)
2004	55	Tom Glavine (25), Steve Trachsel (25)
1992	54	Sid Fernandez (25), Dwight Gooden (23)
2000	54	Mike Hampton (25), Al Leiter (24)
1997	53	Bobby Jones (24), Rick Reed (22)
2010	53	Mike Pelfrey (24), Johan Santana/R.A. Dickey (20)

The 2013 Mets tied the 1979 squad for second-most no-decisions in franchise history, surpassed only by the 1980 team.  Dillon Gee was the only pitcher to earn more than 16 decisions for the Mets in 2013, making this year's club the only one in team history to have just one hurler with at least 17 decisions in a season that wasn't curtailed by a strike.

No-decisions are the result of many things.  Sometimes they occur because starting pitchers don't go as deep into games as they used to, allowing for a reliever to vulture a victory or ten.  Bullpens also aren't as good as they used to be, causing starting pitchers to reach for antacid tablets every time a potential "W" turns into an "ND".  And occasionally a faulty offense doesn't give a starting pitcher much run support, causing him to leave a 2-2 game, 1-1 game, or scoreless pitching duel for a pinch-hitter.

This year's team was a victim of all three.  Matt Harvey pitched well enough to be among the league leaders in wins.  But a dozen no-decisions said otherwise.  Jeremy Hefner has to know how Matt Harvey feels, as he was saddled with 11 no-decisions in 23 starts.  And Dillon Gee was brilliant after his start against the Yankees on May 30.  But even a 2.71 ERA over his last 22 starts wasn't been able to prevent him from earning five losses and seven no-decisions in that time period.

Decisions, decisions.  This year's starting pitchers struggled to earn them.  And their drought was surpassed by just one team in team history.  It's tough to win many games when the starting pitchers aren't getting the Ws for the team.

A Charitable Evening With The Mets At Foley's Pub

Tonight, the cast and crew of Studious Metsimus (and A Gal For All Seasons) spent an evening at Foley's Pub and Restaurant doing our part to help the tornado victims of Moore, Oklahoma.

I had the 405 Burger (which is named after the telephone area code in Moore) and my gal for all seasons had the Big Red Foley Chicken Sandwich, which we both enjoyed.  Proceeds from the 405 Burger were used to help the victims of the terrible tragedy.

In addition to helping out the tornado victims with the special burger, Foley's also invited various Mets players to take part in a meet-and-greet with fans, with proceeds once again going to those in need in Oklahoma.  For a $30 donation, we were able to get a ball autographed by Jeremy Hefner, Dillon Gee, LaTroy Hawkins and David Aardsma.  And for no additional fee, we also got each player to take a photograph with our very own Joey and Iggy Beartran.  A certain PR man with a mouth covered in sauce from the wings he was eating also made a photo appearance with the bears.

Thanks once again to the players and to Foley's for getting together for a fine cause (and for making such a thick, juicy burger ... YUM!!).  Enjoy the photos!

Bottom two photos by Taryn Cooper.  Top four photos by a guy who needs to fix the flashbulb on his camera.

Against the Phillies, Jeremy Hefner Is the Anti-PSSST

Jeremy Hefner does not pitch well against the Philadelphia Phillies.  Of his 46 appearances (32 starts) in the big leagues, six of them (five starts) have come with Phillies hitters salivating in the batter's box.  Hefner has managed to pitch only 18⅓ innings versus Philadelphia in those six appearances, allowing 29 runs (28 earned) and 48 base runners (43 hits, 5 walks).  That's a 13.75 ERA, 2.62 WHIP and .448 batting average (43-for-96) against him, for all you kids scoring at home.

For his career, Hefner has a 4.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, with opposing hitters batting .268 against him.  That means when he faces teams that don't have brotherly love for him, Hefner has a 3.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and opposing hitters are batting .244 (173-for-709) against him.  Simply stated, against the Phillies, Hefner pitches like a Quadruple-A pitcher.  Against everyone else, he pitches like a top of the rotation starter.  In essence, Hefner is the Anti-PSSST.  And what exactly is PSSST?  Oh, ye of little memory, let me take you back to a piece that was originally written on April 11, 2010.

Back in the early '90s, the Pittsburgh Pirates dominated the National League East.  The Bucs won three straight division titles from 1990 to 1992, effectively ending any chance of the Mets continuing their '80s glory into the new decade.  One of the reasons the Mets constantly walked the plank against the Pirates was their trio of lefty starters, namely John Smiley, Zane Smith and Randy Tomlin.  Smiley, Smith and Tomlin formed the "SST" in PSSST, or the Pitching School of Smiley, Smith and Tomlin.

John Smiley was a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1986-1991.  Zane Smith was a Pirate from 1990-1994, then returned to Pittsburgh for his final season in 1996.  Randy Tomlin played his entire five-year career in the Steel City from 1990-1994.  Collectively, the three pitchers were the definition of mediocre, as they combined to win 256 games and lose 256 games over their careers.  But when they put on their Pirates uniforms to face the Mets, they became world beaters (or at the very least, Met killers).

Let's look at what the charter members of PSSST did over their entire careers and let's compare that to what they did against the Mets while they were members of the Pirates, considering their won-loss records, ERA, WHIP and batting average against them.

• John Smiley (entire career): 126-110, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .255 BAA
  
• John Smiley (w/PIT vs. Mets): 10-3, 2.41 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .178 BAA
  

• Zane Smith (entire career): 100-115, 3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .271 BAA
  
• Zane Smith (w/PIT vs. Mets): 7-3, 1.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .245 BAA
  

• Randy Tomlin (entire career): 30-31, 3.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .268 BAA
  
• Randy Tomlin (w/PIT vs. Mets): 9-0, 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .216 BAA
  

• Combined (entire career): 256-256, 3.73 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .264 BAA
  
• Combined (w/PIT vs. Mets): 26-6, 2.12 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .214 BAA
  

                                   PSSST!  Don't tell anyone, but these guys were pretty good against the Mets. 


From 1986, when John Smiley made his first start for the Pirates against the Mets, to 1996, when Zane Smith made his final start as a Buc versus New York, the Mets went through a decade of malaise against the fearsome threesome of Smiley, Smith and Tomlin.  They couldn't touch the three lefties whenever they faced them, even though other teams seemed to have no problem against them.

In that respect, Jeremy Hefner is the Anti-PSSST.  Whereas the charter members of PSSST had their best success against the Mets and were just okay when they faced other teams, Jeremy Hefner has struggled mightily against the Phillies, but has been pretty decent against the rest of the league.

Perhaps a private session with the members of PSSST and a complimentary 1986-1996 highlight film of the Pirates' trio in games versus the Mets can do the trick for Hefner if he wants to learn how to exorcise the demons wearing Phillies uniforms.  If that doesn't do the trick, then Mets fans will continue to get PSSST off whenever Hefner takes the hill against the Phillies.