Are the Mets Really a Second-Half Team? Not So Fast!

The Mets began the second half of the season on a positive note last night, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies by the final score of 5-3.  It was the kind of start needed by a team that expects to be in a heated race for the division crown or one of the wild card spots.

At the start of the midsummer break, a certain Norse god (and sometimes Mets pitcher) took to Twitter to remind Mets fans of what they should expect from the team during the second half of the season.

We are a 2nd half team

— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) July 10, 2016

Well, Syndergaard's sole second half in the majors was in 2015, so his experience is one of a 43-30 record after the All-Star break after the team went just 47-42 during the season's first half - a first half that included an 11-game winning streak.

Sadly, Syndergaard did not consult me before sending out that tweet or else I would have given him a little history lesson.

Since the Mets moved to Citi Field in 2009, they had won just one second-half opener prior to last night's victory.  That win came in 2014 in San Diego.  The Mets were so busy celebrating their post-All-Star Game victory two seasons ago that they were in full hangover mode for the rest of the four-game series at Petco Park, dropping each of the next three games there.

In fact, since 2002, when David Wright and Jose Reyes were still pups in the minors and Bartolo Colon was still under 200 pounds, the Mets are a combined 35 games under .500 after the break, going 474-509.  That includes last year's team, which won nearly 60% of its games in the season's second half.  Compare that to what the Mets have done in the first half of each season since 2002, when the team gave us thoughts of October baseball on a regular basis, as they went 685-656, or 29 wins over the break-even point.

This can be taken back all the way to the early days of the franchise.  Since 1969, when the team posted its first winning season, the Mets have been above .500 at the All-Star break on 28 occasions in those 48 campaigns.  That's almost 60% of the time in just about half a century's worth of seasons.  However, the Mets have only been able to post winning records in the second half just 23 times since 1969, meaning they've had sub-.500 second-half records more than half the time going back nearly five decades.  And that includes the 1975 and 2014 seasons, when the Mets finished one game over .500 in each campaign's second half (39-38 and 34-33, respectively).  It also includes the 1994 season, when the Mets went 15-11 in the abbreviated second half, as a strike killed the season just one month after the All-Star Game was played.

As much as we, as Mets fans, would like to think that our beloved team has traditionally been a second-half team, the truth of the matter is that the team has usually played its best baseball during the first halves of each season.  Of course, last year's team was an exception, but that was because the Eric Campbells, Darrell Cecilianis and John Mayberrys of the first-half world were replaced by the Michael Confortos, Juan Uribes and Yoenis Cespedeses of half No. 2.

Sandy Alderson may just upgrade the team in the next few weeks leading up to the trade deadline on Aug. 1, but the more likely scenario is that the players currently on the team will have to find a way to get healthy, stay healthy and make sure their bats and arms are healthy as well.

A Yoenis Cespedes-like savior isn't going to walk through that door this year.  And if he does, he better make sure he doesn't trip, fall and end up on the disabled list as he passes through it.

If Cespedes keeps going down, so will the Mets' chances of returning to the postseason.  (Matt Slocum/Associated Press)

It's Not About Getting A Pitcher, It's About Doing This...

As Major League Baseball moves into its All-Star Break, it's time to reflect on the Mets and what they need to do to improve the team in the second half. Whereas many people have been clamoring for another starting pitcher before the trading deadline on July 31, I don't think that's the answer. In fact, I think the team just needs to improve some things internally, things that have nothing or very little to do with starting pitching.

The Mets enter the All-Star Break trailing the Braves by four games in the National League East. Upon doing some research, I noticed the following things that have contributed to the gap between the two rivals in the division.

The Mets are 19-28 in games decided by two runs or less (10-15 in one-run games; 9-13 in two-run games). At the same time, the Braves are 22-20 in those games (14-12 in one-run games; 8-8 in two-run games).

The Mets have held their opponent to one run or less 22 times this season. They're 22-0 in those games, meaning that they're 26-40 when they give up two runs or more. Meanwhile, the Braves are 13-1 when they give up one run or less but they're 39-35 when they allow two runs or more.

The Mets have won three games in walk-off fashion, while painfully losing ten games in the opponents' final at-bat. The Braves have been quite successful in games that end in a walk-off, winning eight games in a walk-off, while losing only four.

The Mets have come from behind to win 11 games this season, while blowing the lead in 18 of their losses. On the other hand, the Braves have registered 25 comeback wins this season, while only losing 16 games in which they had the lead.

Many teams can expect to have a winning record in games where they give up anywhere from 2 to 5 runs in a game. The Mets are 21-21 in those such games. What about the Braves? You guessed it. The Braves are 36-21 when they allow anywhere from 2 to 5 runs in a game.

Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in 42 games this year. In 33 of those appearances, he pitched exactly one inning. In 13 of those 33 appearances, he faced a minimum of five batters. That means he has allowed a minimum of two baserunners in almost 40% of his one-inning outings. What about those nine appearances in which he did not pitch exactly one inning? He's far worse in those outings. In six of those nine appearances (67%), he allowed two baserunners or more. That includes last week's debacle against the Nationals where he faced seven batters and only retired one of them.

K-Rod has faced the minimum in only 14 of his 42 appearances. As a result, he has thrown fewer than 10 pitches in only four of those 42 appearances (including today's eight-pitch save against the Braves), while throwing at least 20 pitches in 16 of those games.

So how can the Mets improve their team in the second half of the season? Looking at the information above, it's pretty simple.

The Mets have to be able to pull out the close games. There have been too many times this year when a starting pitcher's best efforts have been wasted because the offense remained dormant. At the same time, on days when the bullpen has been needed to keep games close, they have failed too many times, especially on the road (hence the unusually high number of walk-off losses). Scoring early and often will allow starting pitchers to pitch without having extra pressure attached to every pitch and will allow Jerry Manuel to use his bullpen sparingly, not having to overuse certain relievers.

Whenever the opposing team scores first, the Mets must respond quickly before the game gets out of hand. How many times have we seen the Mets fall behind by four or five runs, only to mount a late-inning comeback that eventually falls short (yet another reason for their less-than-stellar record in games decided by two runs or less)? If the Mets would start coming back as soon as they fall behind, they'd have more innings in which to mount their comeback, instead of having to do it in one big swoop. By starting rallies earlier in games, there is a better chance that these rallies come against a less effective middle reliever instead of the more effective set-up men, lefty specialists and closers.

Although Francisco Rodriguez pitched well today, more often than not, he has spiked the sales of Rolaids to levels not seen since Davey Johnson had them with every meal. Closers have to be able to pitch one-two-three innings. They are supposed to be the firemen of the squad, not the arsonists. Too many times this season, K-Rod has put the tying and go-ahead runs on base and of course, more often than we'd like, those runners have come around to score. Frankie will need to stop trying to throw his pitches through the catcher's mitt and start concentrating more on making pitches where they need to be pitched. At the same time, Jerry Manuel cannot be afraid to have another reliever warming up in the bullpen whenever Frankie puts men on base. Forget about damaging Frankie's ego by showing a lack of trust in his ability to pitch through the inning. What about damaging the Mets' chances for a victory by leaving him in the game on days when he doesn't have his "A" game?

Fixing these problems that have plagued the Mets throughout the first half of the season will go a long way towards determining where they finish in the division. A trade for a starting pitcher will not improve the Mets' ability to score runs in bunches, will not do anything to limit the number of walk-off losses and will not bring K-Rod's pitch count down. If they get a new starting pitcher, I will not complain. However, if they keep committing the same mistakes that led to so many unnecessary losses in the first half, don't expect to see October baseball in Flushing for a fourth consecutive season.