Will Kuroda's Contract Affect How Much Dickey Gets?

Earlier today, the Yankees re-signed pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal with $15 million.   The right-handed starter, who will be 38 by Opening Day, had a 16-11 record with a 3.32 ERA for the Yankees in 2012.

Kuroda's season was outstanding, especially considering that he was pitching in the American League East for the first time last season.  But prior to 2012, Kuroda was a sub-.500 pitcher in four years with the Dodgers.  From 2008-2011, Kuroda was 41-46 with a 3.45 ERA.  Those aren't the usual numbers posted by a $15 million pitcher.

Now let's look at R.A. Dickey, who, like Kuroda, will also be making his 2013 debut at the age of 38.  In 2012, Dickey had the best year of his career, going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA and a league-leading 230 strikeouts, five complete games and three shutouts.  He will be earning $5 million in 2013.

Both Kuroda and Dickey had career years last year, but let's compare what the two pitchers have done over the past three seasons.

• Kuroda: 96 starts, 40-40 record, 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 487 Ks, 3.29 K/BB
• Dickey: 91 starts, 39-28 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 468 Ks, 3.12 K/BB

Dickey has one less win and 19 fewer strikeouts than Kuroda since 2010, but Kuroda has five more starts.  Given five extra starts, it's not unreasonable to suggest that Dickey would have more wins and strikeouts than Kuroda over the past three seasons, to go with the better ERA and WHIP.  However, Kuroda's teams over the past three years have finished a combined 29 games above .500 (257-228), while the Mets have combined to finish 26 games below .500 (230-256).

If Kuroda is earning $15 million in 2013, then what's Dickey worth, especially after his Cy Young campaign?  After watching their crosstown rivals pony up for their 38-year-old starter, the Mets are going to have to break the bank to keep theirs.

Although Dickey is definitely the type of person who would give the Mets a hometown discount, especially since he's (in his own words) loyal to the team that gave him a chance in 2010, why should he settle for only $10 million per season?  If the Mets are going to offer Dickey a two-year extension that would keep him in New York until 2015, they might have to start with a $30 million offer for the two seasons, thereby having $35 million tied up in their knuckleballer ($5 million of that amount is for his 2013 salary) over the next three years.

R.A. Dickey is a loyal human being, but he's not a stupid one.  After watching Hiroki Kuroda get $15 million with the Yankees, the Mets are going to have to offer Dickey something in that neighborhood to get him to stay in Flushing.  Otherwise, Dickey might be playing in another neighborhood sooner than fans would like.

Joey's Small Bites: Expect The Unexpected

Hello, everyone.  This is Joey Beartran checking in with my latest installment of Joey's Small Bites.  And if you're like me, you just want to take a huge bite out of this series, kind of like what the recently deceased Pedro Borbon did to Buzz Capra's cap during the 1973 National League Championship Series. 

Everything that you wouldn't expect to happen in this series has happened.  The Mets entered the series with more wins than the Yankees.  That is not the case anymore, as the Bronx Bummers have taken the first two games of the series to surpass the Mets in victories.  But let's look at some of the other things that have occurred in this series that no one saw coming.

Johan Santana took the mound in the first game of the series, making his first start since holding the National League's premier offensive team hitless.  Of course, he gave up seven hits in six innings to the Yankees, four of which left the park.  Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Hiroki Kuroda, who had never fared well against the Mets in his career (1-5, 5.75 ERA in seven starts prior to Friday night), retired 17 batters before allowing his first hit.  His line over seven innings (one hit, one walk, seven strikeouts) was completely the opposite of what he had produced against the Mets in seven previous starts against them (36 innings pitched, 48 hits, 15 walks, 15 strikeouts).

The Mets have been incredibly productive this year when they have batted with two outs.  Prior to Friday night's series opener, the Mets had scored 124 two-out runs, which accounted for almost half of the 254 runs they had scored on the season.  How many two-out runs have they scored in this series?  One.  And it came in the ninth inning Friday night after the Mets were already down by nine runs.  Not exactly a pressure situation, if you ask me.

Speaking of runs scored, can someone explain to me how the Mets have only scored three runs in two games in that bandbox in the Bronx?  What, did they all suddenly enroll at the Kelvin Torve School For Scoring Runs?  (For those who only know Kelvin Torve as the player who accidentally wore No. 24 for the Mets after it had been taken out of circulation out of respect for Willie Mays, he also holds an interesting team record regarding runs scored, or rather, runs NOT scored.  Torve has the most career at-bats in a Mets uniform (46) without ever scoring a run for the team, beating out pitchers Mike Bruhert and Livan Hernandez, who both compiled 40 career at-bats for the Mets without crossing the plate at least once.)

Last but not least, Dillon Gee entered last night's game with a 4-3 record.  Those three losses caught the eye of my Studious Metsimus colleague.  He went through the team's roster and noticed that no Mets starting pitcher had lost more than three games this year.  He then went through the rosters of the other 29 teams in the majors (He was doing this when he should have been paying attention to the game - some Mets fan he is!) and noticed that all of them had at least one starting pitcher with four losses.  So trying to show off his research skills, he tweeted the following:

No #Mets starting pitcher has lost more than three games this year.  They are the only team in baseball who can claim this.
— Ed Leyro (@Studi_Metsimus) June 10, 2012

Of course, that got the attention of his Twitter followers, who retweeted his sagelike observation ten times before the game ended.  That tweet instantly became false once last night's final pitch was delivered, as Dillon Gee was saddled with his fourth loss of the season.  If I've told him once, I've told him a thousand times.  You do NOT talk about no-hitters while they are still in progress in the late innings (he heeded my advice during Santana's historic start against the Cardinals) and you do NOT tweet about something that hasn't happened because it will end up happening once you tweet about it (obviously, he paid me no mind on that one).  Sigh.  He'll never learn.

Well, that's it for this edition of Joey's Small Bites.  Hopefully, today the Mets can eschew what they learned from Kelvin Torve and chew on the Yankees' pitchers' ERAs, a la Pedro Borbon.  I'm hungry for a win today (not the only thing I'm hungry for).  Let's salvage this series and take those Yankee brooms and shove them up their...

Ahem.  Let's just win today, okay.  You have no idea what all these losses are doing to me.

It's A Hard Luck Life (For R.A.)

Quick! Which starting pitcher on the Mets has the lowest ERA? If you said R.A. Dickey, you'd be correct. Now if I asked you which Mets hurler of the starting five has the fewest wins, you probably wouldn't think to say Dickey's name again. But it's true, with a 5-11 record, R.A. Dickey has the fewest wins of the five pitchers in the starting rotation, one less than Mike Pelfrey's six.

R.A. Dickey is this year's hard-luck pitcher on the Mets, the man who pitches well more often than not, yet never seems to get credit for the victory. The Mets are 11-14 in Dickey's 25 starts, including Monday night's extra-inning victory over the Padres. That means the bullpen is more apt to pick up the victory in a Dickey start than Dickey himself. It's enough to make you scratch your head in disbelief.

It's okay, R.A. You may not be getting the wins on your record, but you're a winner to Mets fans.

Dickey is not the only pitcher in the majors to be having trouble earning victories despite pitching relatively well. Fellow National Leaguer Hiroki Kuroda has an 8-14 record, leading the league with his 14 losses. However, he is currently eighth in the NL with a 2.88 ERA. Kuroda has given up three earned runs or less in 19 of his 24 starts, but the Dodgers have managed to lose ten of those 19 quality starts. Incredibly, Los Angeles has scored two runs or less in exactly half of Kuroda's 24 starts, giving the 26-year-old righty little room for error.

In the American League, Doug Fister has pitched relatively well this year, splitting his time between Seattle and Detroit. After 24 starts, Fister's ERA is 3.59 and has never been higher than 3.86 at any point this year. However, Fister's won-loss record (4-13) does not seem right compared to his ERA. Like Kuroda, Fister has been highly effective in most of his starts, allowing two earned runs or less 12 times. Incredibly, his teams have lost seven of those 12 starts. Trading the Pacific Northwest for the Motown Mashers has done little to change Fister's luck, as he gave up two earned runs in his second start for Detroit on August 9, only to get a no-decision in a 3-2 loss to the Indians.

It is not uncommon for a good pitcher to suffer hard times in the won-loss column despite pitching well enough to win most of his games. It's especially not uncommon for Mets pitchers to live the hard-luck life.

In 1978, Craig Swan led the National League with a 2.43 ERA. However, Swan only managed to win nine games in 28 starts (losing six and receiving a no-decision in a whopping 13 starts). In 17 of his 28 starts, Swan left the game with the Mets in the lead (12 times) or tied (5 times). Yet, the bullpen couldn't help Swan out. Neither could his offense, as the Mets scored three runs or less in 16 of his 28 starts.

If Swan's 1978 season was enough to make you shake your head, wait till you hear about Jon Matlack's 1974 season. In that year, Matlack pitched 14 complete games (5th in the NL), threw 265.1 innings (7th), had a 2.41 ERA (3rd), recorded a 1.12 WHIP (3rd), struck out 195 batters (4th) and led the league with seven shutouts. He also made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. Sounds like a Cy Young Award candidate, doesn't it? So how many votes did Matlack receive for the National League Cy Young Award in 1974?

Zero.

Perhaps it was one little stat that caused the voters to look away from Matlack at year's end. You know which one I'm talking about. In 1974, Jon Matlack's won-loss record was 13-15.

Since Matlack threw seven complete game shutouts in '74, that means more than half of his wins came in games in which he allowed no runs in nine innings of work. He basically had to be as close to perfect as possible in order to pick up a win. Of course, with the Mets scoring three runs or less in 19 of his 34 starts, it's no wonder why Matlack finished the season with a losing record.

So that brings us to R.A. Dickey. Why is Dickey allergic to victories despite leading the team in ERA for starting pitchers? It's actually a combination of three things. Dickey is being let down by his offense, the bullpen has been a little shaky, and he's been bitten by the bad luck bug.

In 26 games (25 starts), Dickey has left the game with the lead eight times (including Monday night versus the Padres). The bullpen has blown three of those leads. Dickey has also left four games with the score tied. He received no-decisions in all four starts, as the offense failed to take the lead in the next half-inning every time, thereby denying Dickey the possibility of earning the win. The Mets have also scored three runs or less in more than half of Dickey's appearances (14 times in 26 appearances), making it increasingly difficult for R.A. to chalk up the victory.

Luck also has something to do with it. In 2010, opposing hitters' BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) against Dickey was .280, well below the average number of .300. This year, Dickey's BABIP has risen to .293, which is more in line with the league average. Batters are finding more holes and placing their hits in better spots. It's all about luck with this statistic, and Dickey seems to be having nothing but the bad variety this year.

Sometimes all it takes is a clutch hit here or a solid bullpen performance there for a pitcher to rack up the victories. For R.A. Dickey in 2011, he's receiving none of that help. Baseball is a team sport. It's a shame that the team doesn't usually show up whenever R.A. Dickey is on the mound.