Is R.A. Dickey Getting (Shudder To Think) Greedy?

R.A. Dickey had a tremendous season for the Mets in 2012, winning 20 games and the Cy Young Award.  As a result, the Mets picked up his $5 million option for 2013, a team-friendly deal that's far below what most reigning Cy Young winners earn.

Now Dickey is looking for a two-year extension that would keep him in New York through the 2015 campaign.  What would it take to keep him in Flushing for the two seasons after his option year?  Approximately $26 million, give or take a few Susan B. Anthonys.  What are the Mets offering their knuckleballer?  $20 million for two years.  The $3 million per year difference might be enough to write an unwanted final chapter in Dickey's storybook career in New York.

For as much as I appreciate everything R.A. Dickey has done for the Mets, I advise him to take the money if he's smart (which he is) and doesn't want to tarnish his legacy (which he could).  Here's why.

In 2000, the Detroit Tigers offered free agent outfielder Juan Gonzalez what would have been a record eight-year, $140 million contract.  To put that into perspective, the Mets just signed David Wright to a team-record eight-year, $138 million contract.  Gonzalez was being offered his amount when David Wright was still popping pimples in high school.

Gonzalez certainly had earned that sizable contract, winning two American League Most Valuable Player Awards and averaging 43 HR and 140 RBI from 1996 to 1999 while leading the Texas Rangers to three division titles.  What did he do with the lucrative offer?

He turned the Tigers down.

At the time, Gonzalez was 30 years old.  He wasn't exactly a spry youth, but he certainly wasn't at the end of the line.  Or so he thought.

The slugger played six more seasons in the major leagues, with only one of them being All-Star caliber (2001, when he finished the year with 35 HR and 140 RBI as a member of the Cleveland Indians).  After the 2001 campaign, Gonzalez's production took a hard tumble, as he averaged nine home runs and 30 RBIs per season in each of his last four years in the big leagues.  He played one game in his second go-round with the Cleveland Indians in 2005, never playing again in the big leagues.  Had he signed the deal with the Tigers back in 2000, he still would have been paid through 2007.  Instead, he was out of baseball, carrying a much lighter wallet with him.

That brings us back to R.A. Dickey.

As stated before, Dickey is a smart man.  But that highly evolved brain of his is still 38 years old, as is his pitching arm.  If he were to sign the two year, $20 million extension that the Mets are offering him, he'd be earning $10 million in 2015, a season that would end approximately one month before his 41st birthday.  How many other pitchers who have already blown out 40 candles can say they make that type of money?  Not many.

Greg Maddux was a 40-year-old pitcher in 2006, winning 15 games for the Cubs and Dodgers.  His salary that year was $9 million.  The future Hall of Famer earned $10 million as a 41-year-old in 2007 and $10 million more as a 42-year-old in 2008.  His combined record during those final two seasons in which he earned $10 million per year was an un-Maddux-like 22-24. 

Greg Maddux was one of the best pitchers of all-time.  R.A. Dickey had a 41-50 won-loss record prior to his Cy Young-winning campaign.  It's like comparing apples and oranges.

Dickey had a great season in 2012.  He has earned the right to demand a higher salary.  But asking for a two-year, $26 million extension at his age is just plain silly, especially when Greg Maddux, a future Hall of Fame pitcher with a far more attractive résumé, was only making $10 million just four years ago at a similar age. 

In 2003, Juan Gonzalez would have been in the fourth year of his eight-year, $140 million contract.  Instead, he was missing 80 games for the Texas Rangers as a teammate of R.A. Dickey, earning a fraction of what he would have earned as a member of the Detroit Tigers.  Considering that Dickey saw firsthand what a mistake Gonzalez made when they were teammates, don't you think he wouldn't be as adamant with his contract demands, especially given his age and mediocre record prior to 2012?

Take the money, R.A.  There's no reason to roll the dice when you saw how easy it is for snake eyes to appear.

B.J. Upton's Offensive Numbers Remind Me Of...

B.J. Upton's bubble will never burst after signing a lucrative deal with the Braves.

The Atlanta Braves made quite a splash on Wednesday, signing former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million.  The 28-year-old is coming off a year in which he missed a 30/30 campaign by two homers (28 HR, 31 SB), but only hit .246 and reached base at a paltry .298 clip.

Upton is now the highest-paid Brave on a team that features veteran players like Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and Tim Hudson.  But let's look at his numbers since his breakout year in 2007, a year in which he hit .300 with 24 HR and 82 RBI.

In 2008, Upton only hit nine homers, but stole a career-high 44 bases.  He followed that up with a Beltran-like post-season, hitting seven homers and stealing six bases in 16 games for the American League champion Rays.  He also averaged exactly one run scored and one RBI per playoff game (16 runs, 16 RBI).  But over his next four seasons (2009-12), an average Upton season has consisted of a .242 batting average, .316 on-base percentage, 82 runs scored, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 stolen bases and 162 strikeouts.

Let's put those numbers together with the five and six-year averages of three other players who will remain nameless at the moment.

• Upton ('09-'12): .242 BA, .316 OBP, 82 runs, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 SB, 162 K
• Player #1 ('90-'95): .273 BA, .348 OBP, 95 runs, 95 RBI, 27 doubles, 29 HR, 30 SB, 103 K
• Player #2 ('99-'04): .252 BA, .347 OBP, 87 runs, 81 RBI, 30 doubles, 23 HR, 28 SB, 148 K
• Player #3 ('87-'91): .258 BA, .347 OBP, 96 runs, 95 RBI, 31 doubles, 31 HR, 32 SB, 113 K

Upton leads all three anonymous players in stolen bases and doubles, but not by much.  However, he has a lower batting average, lower on-base percentage, has scored fewer runs, driven in fewer runs, hit fewer homers and has struck out more than all three players.  In some cases, he trails the other players by quite a bit.

If Upton will be averaging a little over $15 million per season for the duration of his five-year contract with the Braves, then how much would Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson make in this era?  (And yes, those are the identities of the formerly unnamed players listed above.)

HoJo can't believe the amount of money B.J. Upton will be making with Atlanta.

Here are four more things you may not have known about Upton.  He's never been an All-Star, he's never won a Gold Glove, he's never earned a Silver Slugger Award and he's never received an MVP vote.  Meanwhile, Gant, Cameron and Johnson combined to make five All-Star teams, win three Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger Awards, while earning MVP votes in nine separate seasons.

Despite their impressive statistics and postseason accolades, neither player was considered the best player on his team nor was any of them the highest paid.  But Upton - who has a bunch of zeroes next to his All-Star selections, Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger Awards and MVP votes - can now brag about some more zeroes, namely the ones on his contract that make him the highest paid member of the Atlanta Braves.

Maybe B.J. Upton will play well in Atlanta.  But is he truly deserving of the $75-plus million he'll be receiving until he's 33, especially for a player who's never been the best at anything he does, and in various offensive categories, is well below average?

Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson are probably shaking their heads right now knowing how much they could have earned had they been in their prime in 2012.  B.J. Upton is just shaking his checkbook.

Will Kuroda's Contract Affect How Much Dickey Gets?

Earlier today, the Yankees re-signed pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal with $15 million.   The right-handed starter, who will be 38 by Opening Day, had a 16-11 record with a 3.32 ERA for the Yankees in 2012.

Kuroda's season was outstanding, especially considering that he was pitching in the American League East for the first time last season.  But prior to 2012, Kuroda was a sub-.500 pitcher in four years with the Dodgers.  From 2008-2011, Kuroda was 41-46 with a 3.45 ERA.  Those aren't the usual numbers posted by a $15 million pitcher.

Now let's look at R.A. Dickey, who, like Kuroda, will also be making his 2013 debut at the age of 38.  In 2012, Dickey had the best year of his career, going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA and a league-leading 230 strikeouts, five complete games and three shutouts.  He will be earning $5 million in 2013.

Both Kuroda and Dickey had career years last year, but let's compare what the two pitchers have done over the past three seasons.

• Kuroda: 96 starts, 40-40 record, 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 487 Ks, 3.29 K/BB
• Dickey: 91 starts, 39-28 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 468 Ks, 3.12 K/BB

Dickey has one less win and 19 fewer strikeouts than Kuroda since 2010, but Kuroda has five more starts.  Given five extra starts, it's not unreasonable to suggest that Dickey would have more wins and strikeouts than Kuroda over the past three seasons, to go with the better ERA and WHIP.  However, Kuroda's teams over the past three years have finished a combined 29 games above .500 (257-228), while the Mets have combined to finish 26 games below .500 (230-256).

If Kuroda is earning $15 million in 2013, then what's Dickey worth, especially after his Cy Young campaign?  After watching their crosstown rivals pony up for their 38-year-old starter, the Mets are going to have to break the bank to keep theirs.

Although Dickey is definitely the type of person who would give the Mets a hometown discount, especially since he's (in his own words) loyal to the team that gave him a chance in 2010, why should he settle for only $10 million per season?  If the Mets are going to offer Dickey a two-year extension that would keep him in New York until 2015, they might have to start with a $30 million offer for the two seasons, thereby having $35 million tied up in their knuckleballer ($5 million of that amount is for his 2013 salary) over the next three years.

R.A. Dickey is a loyal human being, but he's not a stupid one.  After watching Hiroki Kuroda get $15 million with the Yankees, the Mets are going to have to offer Dickey something in that neighborhood to get him to stay in Flushing.  Otherwise, Dickey might be playing in another neighborhood sooner than fans would like.