Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

It's Miller Time!  But are the Nationals going to shut down the Brew Crew's party?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is your favorite fearless forecaster, Joey Beartran.  And I don't know how effective I'll be picking other teams to win, especially since I'm still on a high from the Mets' season-ending walk-off victory.

Finishing ten games over .500 wasn't good enough to get the Mets into the playoffs, as they finished three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card.  But at least they're not the 93-win Cleveland Indians, who became a fringe playoff team themselves when they allowed the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics to beat them to the postseason party.

Speaking of fringe teams, the Philadelphia Phillies paid $330 million to Bryce Harper, who led them to the promised land of a .500 record.  That's over $100 million more than the Washington Nationals are offering Anthony Rendon, otherwise known as the player who was the real offensive leader of the Nats all these years.  And the player who could possibly be one of just 25 who can say they helped Washington advance in the postseason for the first time ever.

But will Washington finally celebrate something other than a division title or wild card berth?  Will Milwaukee continue to win one for the Yelich?  How about the Rays, who are making their first playoff appearance with a skipper not named Joe Maddon?  Or will the A's move on for the first time in five trips to the postseason under manager Bob Melvin?

I guess it's time for me to put on my thinking cap (or the hood from my Mets hoodie, since that's the only article of clothing I wear) and share my predictions for the American and National League Wild Card games.  And of course, there's no chance those picks will be biased.  Not at all.


National League Wild Card Game

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

We all know the Nationals' history in the postseason.  Four appearances, four quick exits.  Meanwhile, every time the Brewers have qualified for the postseason since moving to the National League in 1998, they've won more playoff games than they did in their previous playoff appearance.  Milwaukee won one postseason game in 2008, then followed that up with five playoff victories in 2011.  Last year, the Brewers fell one win short of their second-ever trip to the World Series.

Both teams are hungry.  Milwaukee is hungry for a pennant, while Washington is hungry for their first-ever October champagne celebration (which is weird because how can a team be hungry for a liquid?)

Let's look at the pitching matchup, because as we all know, pitching wins Wild Card Game championships.

The Nationals will trot out Max Scherzer, whose seven-year, $210 million contract has produced zero postseason wins in three starts and one relief appearance.  Scherzer will also be pitching on six days rest, which usually helps a pitcher.  However, this season Scherzer made four starts on six or more days rest.  He won none of them, producing a 3.28 ERA in those well-rested appearances, which was nearly half a run higher than the 2.86 ERA he put up in his other 23 starts.

Milwaukee's starter will be Brandon Woodruff, who has a lifetime 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career postseason appearances.  Those numbers look good on paper.  You know what looks better on paper?  His 0.96 ERA and 0.70 lifetime WHIP against the Nationals in four appearances.  And I haven't even mentioned that he's struck out 23 Washingtonians while walking just two.  (Okay, maybe I just did.)

The face of a philosopher. (Getty Images)

And the pièce de résistance?  The next extra-base hit a Nationals player collects against Woodruff will be the first.  You read that right.  In his four appearances against Washington, Woodruff has faced 68 batters and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to any of them.

I believe it was the great former Mets shortstop Rafael Santana who once said, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."  (I also believe my Studious Metsimus colleague is passing me a note saying that it was actually George Santayana who said this.  What does he know about famous quotes?)  With or without Bryce Harper, the Nationals will always be doomed to repeat their postseason failures.  Scherzer might be a future Hall of Famer, but 'Ol Blue Eye is not a future wild card game winner.  At least not until he signs with another team.

Prediction:  Milwaukee will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics

So remember what I said about pitching winning championships?  Well, we're going to get some pitching in this game.  Unless things change, Oakland will be going with Sean Manaea, who made just five starts this season, but posted a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his September to remember.  Tampa will be going with All-Star Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 and struck out 240 batters in just 194.2 IP.  And if you recognize his name, it's probably because you recall how great he was for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the seventh and deciding game to give Houston its first-ever championship.  In other words, he's got what it takes to pitch in a win-or-go-home game.

Manaea was great in September, but his last four starts were against the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers (twice) and Seattle Mariners.  Those three teams combined to finish 99 games under .500, meaning Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz could probably shut them down as well.

In addition, Tampa's lineup is as consistent as they come.  Nine players had 300 or more plate appearances.  Eight of those players had between 14 and 21 home runs.  (The one who didn't, Austin Meadows, hit 33 taters.)  No one on the Rays had as many as 90 RBI, but eight players drove in over 50 runs.  No player hit .300, but eight of the nine regulars hit over .250, and the one who didn't (Kevin Kiermaier) led the team in stolen bases.  How consistent were the Rays throughout the season?  They had 11 players with a bWAR of at least 2.0, but none with a WAR above 5.0.  And who is the one player worth exactly 5.0 WAR?  Why, it's wild card game starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

The game is in Oakland, but Tampa had the second-best road record in the majors at 48-33.  This team knows how to win on the road.  And their starting pitcher knows how to pitch when the team's season is on the line.

Touch 'em all, Travis.  (Scott Audette/AP)

Oh, and one more thing.  Travis d'Arnaud is on the Rays and he just had that breakout campaign (16 HR, 67 RBI in 92 games with Tampa Bay) we were told he'd have one day as a member of the Mets.  But in addition to his skills with the bat, d'Arnaud also made Charlie Morton better, as evidenced by the opponents' .202/.265/.361 slash line against Morton with d'Arnaud behind the plate.

The Coliseum hasn't seen a playoff victory in six years.  That streak isn't ending this year.  Right, Travis?

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS.

Joey's Post-Game: The Tejada/Collins Summit

Ruben Tejada showed up to camp yesterday on time, but on time wasn't good enough for manager Terry Collins, who expressed disappointment and called for a meeting with the new Mets shortstop this morning.

I'm Studious Metsimus roving reporter Joey Beartran and here is my report and commentary on the Ruben Tejada/Terry Collins Summit.

According to Adam Rubin, Tejada wanted to show up to camp early, as his manager wanted, but had problems obtaining his visa from the Panamanian embassy, which was closed for a few days.  Perhaps the embassy employees had to report to their own manager early or had to close the shop to play a hockey game on the roof.  Regardless, Tejada should have not left his visa issue to the last minute, especially since it was important to his manager for him to arrive early.

This wasn't the only time that Tejada didn't do what his manager asked him to do, as Collins wanted his shortstop to spend a chunk of the winter at the Mets' complex in Florida.  Collins was hoping for Tejada to work with his strength coach and to familiarize himself with Daniel Murphy, who will be his double play partner in 2012.

To this, Tejada responded that he already worked with Murphy as a double play partner in 2010, albeit for a brief 20-game stretch, when both players were members of the AAA-Buffalo Bisons.  As for getting stronger, Tejada said that he used his own personal trainer in Panama, and that he is now feeling "a little bit stronger".

This reporter would like to remind you that Ruben Tejada hit no home runs in 328 at-bats in 2011, and has one home run in 544 career at-bats in the major leagues.  His .314 lifetime slugging percentage is just slightly higher than former Met shortstops Rey Ordoñez (.310) and Rafael Santana (.307).  Therefore, if Tejada hits an inside-the-park homer in 2012, he will have surpassed his 2011 home run output and doubled his lifetime total.  He'll have to be a little more specific when he says he got "a little bit stronger".

For all we know, his quote could mean that he expects to elevate his power from Rey Ordoñez levels to Felix Millan levels.  (For those not in the know, Millan slugged .337 in five years as a Met from 1973 to 1977.  He did this by "blasting" eight home runs in 2,677 at-bats in New York.)  Who needs Terry Collins' strength coach when Tejada's own personal coach can give him one-in-a-Millan power?

That fearsome stance.  The way he holds his bat.  Nothing screams power more than Felix Millan.

Ruben Tejada is only 22 years old.  He was born on the same day Jonathon Niese and his original nose were celebrating their third birthday.  He has a lot to learn about what it takes to be in the major leagues.  Not all of that learning takes place on the field.  Some of it has to do with taking instructions from your manager.  Ruben Tejada failed his manager twice by not showing up to camp early and by not working with his double-play partner and the team's strength coach in Florida.

Tejada is not Jose Reyes, nor should anyone expect him to be.  But he is a major league baseball player, and major league baseball players are supposed to conduct themselves a little better than Tejada is right now.  Ruben Tejada might be feeling "a little bit stronger" now.  What he should also be doing is feeling "a little bit wiser".  He'll have to work on that as well if he wants to be an accepted part of Terry Collins' team.

Is Rick Astley To Blame For The Mets' Failures?

Long-time readers of Studious Metsimus might know the staff has a thing against Rick Astley. Now we hate him even more ever since we found out that the Wilpons have a secret love for him.

Remember back in 2008 when the Mets asked their fans to select a song for the eighth inning sing-along? They were supposedly Rick-Rolled when five million write-in votes were cast for Rick Astley's "Never Gonna Give You Up".

That was no ordinary Rick-Roll. That was the Wilpons' doing, hiding behind the scenes, trying to get the fans to commit to Clay Aiken's biological father.

They tried again this year by asking Astley to change his look to appeal to fans of much hipper 80s favorites, INXS. The first live concert at Citi Field was not supposed to feature Sir Paul McCartney. It was supposed to be INXS, fronted by Rick Astley. He may have tried to look like the late lead singer of INXS, but Rick Astley was no Michael Hutchence!


After the latest Astley rejection, the Wilpons got fed up with the constant badmouthing about their British boytoy. They figured something had to be done and so they fired Tony Bernazard.

Meanwhile, back at Ebbets Central, Studious Metsimus found a way to get into the offices of the Wilpons, looking for anything that could explain why they have such an infatuation with Astley and his music. After almost knocking over their comic book collection full of old issues of Jimmy Olsen comics (hmmm....young redhead again. Interesting...), we hid behind their autographed Sandy Koufax life-sized bobblehead doll (sorry, no photos of the bobblehead were taken so that the flash wouldn't alert the Wilpons to our presence), and heard a familiar voice singing this song:

Never gonna give Rick up
Never gonna let him down
Even if the fans don't like how I insert you
Never gonna make him cry
Never gonna stop my tryin'
You'll have that Santana cap and his shirt, too.

Okay, now I was intrigued. Apparently, there was something deeper going on here. Was Rick Astley blackmailing the Mets for Johan Santana memorabilia? Wasn't Bernie Madoff enough? Now Rick Astley was trying to get money from the Wilpons, too?

As we were considering our next move, something unexpected and unfortunate happened.

Joey farted.

It tripped off the SBD alarms all over the Wilpons' offices and we scurried to find the nearest exit. We accidentally knocked over an urn that appeared to contain the ashes of a late Brooklyn Dodger, but darkness prevented us from investigating which player it was. Although we could hear footsteps behind us, we were faster.

Then we pulled the old Scooby Doo trick where we'd go down a hall with many doors, entering through one door and coming out another. Our pursuers tried to do the same thing but they ended up using the wrong doors, crashing into each other face-to-face while we made our escape. Jinkies! It actually worked!

So we made it into a lobby area that we were unfamiliar with, but we were no longer being chased. After reprimanding Joey for his flatulent moment, we decided to catch our breath and sat next to an older man who appeared to be waiting for someone.

We struck up a conversation and he told us his name was Rafael. We discussed many topics, like what would hit the ground first if dropped from a third-story window, a pound of feathers or a pound of rocks? After getting a few confusing looks from him, the conversation switched to something Studious Metsimus knew a little something about, the 1986 Mets!

Rafael spoke about that team as if he knew them personally. He recalled wonderful moments about that World Series and even said that he popped a little bubbly in celebration himself.

When he started talking about being upset that Omar Minaya had brought in so many Hispanic players to the Mets but never gave him a call to represent the team, that's when it all hit me.

I asked Rafael about Rick Astley and he said that he knew him. Astley was a big fan of Dominican shortstops from his heyday in the 80s such as Tony Fernandez and Alfredo Griffin and collected memorabilia from those players. He was here to present the Wilpons with his autographed cap and T-shirt in exchange for a position on the team.

Duh!

I was talking to Rafael Santana, shortstop for the 1986 World Champion Mets. He was the Santana that was being sung about off-key, not Johan Santana.

Soon afterwards, we heard a voice say "Mr. Santana, the Wilpons will see you now" and we snuck in behind Rafael, unbeknownst to the attractive young receptionist dressed in Dodger Blue.

When Mutt (Fred) and Jeff (Jeff) introduced themselves to Rafael, I noticed the bruises on their faces from their collision during the Scooby Doo chase and I knew I had them!

I sprung out from behind the plastic plant and screamed out "I know what you're up to!", producing stares of bewilderment from Mutt and Jeff.

I told them that I knew about their secret love of Rick Astley. Because of that love, they gave Rafael Santana false hopes for a position within the team when all they wanted from him was a signed cap and T-shirt to present to Astley. They never gave a dang about Santana and were just using him to add more fuel to their unusual love affair with the "never-was" crooner.

When they finally admitted their not-so-secret love for Astley, I encouraged Santana to pursue legal action against the Wilpons for discrimination, but he respectfully declined, saying that the Wilpons had suffered enough this year. As we left Citi Field, we couldn't help but overhear Mutt say to Jeff under his breath,

"We would have gotten away with it if it weren't for that meddling kid and that farting bear."

The case was solved. The Wilpons not only had a love of the Brooklyn Dodgers, but they also had a secret bromance going on with Rick Astley. Astley wanted to become relevant again and the Wilpons were planning on using any means possible to put him back in the national spotlight, even if it meant using former Mets players from championship teams.

Because of all the time and effort put into the seduction of Rick Astley, the Wilpons did not try to help the team in 2009. That will change now that their secret is out. Expect the Mets to improve in 2010 now that the Wilpons will be able to focus more on the betterment of the franchise.

There will be no more Rick-Rolling here, thanks to the work of the Studious Metsimus staff, the bowels of Joey and the incessant cartoon watching we did as children. Everything is safe in Mets-ville and if you click here, you'll see the exclusive Studious Metsimus apology by the Wilpons.