Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

It's Miller Time!  But are the Nationals going to shut down the Brew Crew's party?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is your favorite fearless forecaster, Joey Beartran.  And I don't know how effective I'll be picking other teams to win, especially since I'm still on a high from the Mets' season-ending walk-off victory.

Finishing ten games over .500 wasn't good enough to get the Mets into the playoffs, as they finished three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card.  But at least they're not the 93-win Cleveland Indians, who became a fringe playoff team themselves when they allowed the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics to beat them to the postseason party.

Speaking of fringe teams, the Philadelphia Phillies paid $330 million to Bryce Harper, who led them to the promised land of a .500 record.  That's over $100 million more than the Washington Nationals are offering Anthony Rendon, otherwise known as the player who was the real offensive leader of the Nats all these years.  And the player who could possibly be one of just 25 who can say they helped Washington advance in the postseason for the first time ever.

But will Washington finally celebrate something other than a division title or wild card berth?  Will Milwaukee continue to win one for the Yelich?  How about the Rays, who are making their first playoff appearance with a skipper not named Joe Maddon?  Or will the A's move on for the first time in five trips to the postseason under manager Bob Melvin?

I guess it's time for me to put on my thinking cap (or the hood from my Mets hoodie, since that's the only article of clothing I wear) and share my predictions for the American and National League Wild Card games.  And of course, there's no chance those picks will be biased.  Not at all.


National League Wild Card Game

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

We all know the Nationals' history in the postseason.  Four appearances, four quick exits.  Meanwhile, every time the Brewers have qualified for the postseason since moving to the National League in 1998, they've won more playoff games than they did in their previous playoff appearance.  Milwaukee won one postseason game in 2008, then followed that up with five playoff victories in 2011.  Last year, the Brewers fell one win short of their second-ever trip to the World Series.

Both teams are hungry.  Milwaukee is hungry for a pennant, while Washington is hungry for their first-ever October champagne celebration (which is weird because how can a team be hungry for a liquid?)

Let's look at the pitching matchup, because as we all know, pitching wins Wild Card Game championships.

The Nationals will trot out Max Scherzer, whose seven-year, $210 million contract has produced zero postseason wins in three starts and one relief appearance.  Scherzer will also be pitching on six days rest, which usually helps a pitcher.  However, this season Scherzer made four starts on six or more days rest.  He won none of them, producing a 3.28 ERA in those well-rested appearances, which was nearly half a run higher than the 2.86 ERA he put up in his other 23 starts.

Milwaukee's starter will be Brandon Woodruff, who has a lifetime 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career postseason appearances.  Those numbers look good on paper.  You know what looks better on paper?  His 0.96 ERA and 0.70 lifetime WHIP against the Nationals in four appearances.  And I haven't even mentioned that he's struck out 23 Washingtonians while walking just two.  (Okay, maybe I just did.)

The face of a philosopher. (Getty Images)

And the pièce de résistance?  The next extra-base hit a Nationals player collects against Woodruff will be the first.  You read that right.  In his four appearances against Washington, Woodruff has faced 68 batters and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to any of them.

I believe it was the great former Mets shortstop Rafael Santana who once said, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."  (I also believe my Studious Metsimus colleague is passing me a note saying that it was actually George Santayana who said this.  What does he know about famous quotes?)  With or without Bryce Harper, the Nationals will always be doomed to repeat their postseason failures.  Scherzer might be a future Hall of Famer, but 'Ol Blue Eye is not a future wild card game winner.  At least not until he signs with another team.

Prediction:  Milwaukee will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics

So remember what I said about pitching winning championships?  Well, we're going to get some pitching in this game.  Unless things change, Oakland will be going with Sean Manaea, who made just five starts this season, but posted a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his September to remember.  Tampa will be going with All-Star Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 and struck out 240 batters in just 194.2 IP.  And if you recognize his name, it's probably because you recall how great he was for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the seventh and deciding game to give Houston its first-ever championship.  In other words, he's got what it takes to pitch in a win-or-go-home game.

Manaea was great in September, but his last four starts were against the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers (twice) and Seattle Mariners.  Those three teams combined to finish 99 games under .500, meaning Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz could probably shut them down as well.

In addition, Tampa's lineup is as consistent as they come.  Nine players had 300 or more plate appearances.  Eight of those players had between 14 and 21 home runs.  (The one who didn't, Austin Meadows, hit 33 taters.)  No one on the Rays had as many as 90 RBI, but eight players drove in over 50 runs.  No player hit .300, but eight of the nine regulars hit over .250, and the one who didn't (Kevin Kiermaier) led the team in stolen bases.  How consistent were the Rays throughout the season?  They had 11 players with a bWAR of at least 2.0, but none with a WAR above 5.0.  And who is the one player worth exactly 5.0 WAR?  Why, it's wild card game starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

The game is in Oakland, but Tampa had the second-best road record in the majors at 48-33.  This team knows how to win on the road.  And their starting pitcher knows how to pitch when the team's season is on the line.

Touch 'em all, Travis.  (Scott Audette/AP)

Oh, and one more thing.  Travis d'Arnaud is on the Rays and he just had that breakout campaign (16 HR, 67 RBI in 92 games with Tampa Bay) we were told he'd have one day as a member of the Mets.  But in addition to his skills with the bat, d'Arnaud also made Charlie Morton better, as evidenced by the opponents' .202/.265/.361 slash line against Morton with d'Arnaud behind the plate.

The Coliseum hasn't seen a playoff victory in six years.  That streak isn't ending this year.  Right, Travis?

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2018 Completely Unbiased Wild Card Game Picks

Remember, these are completely unbiased picks.  So this photo of me at gorgeous Coors Field is just a total coincidence.

Hey, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, your furry fearless forecaster.  And just like you, I'm only now starting to recover from the David Wright Kleenex Fest this past weekend at Citi Field.  It's sad that the Captain's career is over, just like it's disappointing that the Mets are not in the postseason for a second consecutive campaign.

Because the Mets are emptying out their lockers instead of packing for an October road trip, that means we all have to watch teams in which we have no interest competing for a championship that has eluded our squad for nearly a third of a century.

Some of those non-Metsian teams were forced to play a 163rd game to determine who would get the chance to celebrate a division title and who would have to play in the same do-or-die game the Mets lost the last time they made the playoffs two seasons ago.  The Cubs and Rockies both lost their 163rd and final regular season games, forcing them to play in a 164th and first postseason game against each other, with the loser not getting a chance to play in a 165th game.  Meanwhile, the Yankees and A's already knew their wild card fate for some time, allowing them to prepare for the inevitable Yankee defeat.  (Oops, I should've said "spoiler alert".)

As your prescient prognosticator, it's my duty to share my knowledge of what's going to happen in the American and National League Wild Card games.  And hopefully, I won't spoil anything for you too soon like I did in the previous paragraph.  (On an unrelated note, don't you just love the photo of me at the top of this post?  Looks like the photo of a winning ballpark, doesn't it?)


National League Wild Card Game

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs

Well, leave it to the Rockies to get so close to winning their first division title only to kiss it goodbye in their 163rd game.  Then again, the Rockies are no strangers to making it to the playoffs as a second-place team.  They've now qualified for the postseason five times in their quarter century of existence, with every appearance coming as the No. 2 team in the N.L. West.  Meanwhile, the Cubs surrendered the N.L. Central crown in their 163rd game but still made the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season; the first time they've ever done that in their long history, which dates back to 1876, or the year Scott Atchison was born.

The Cubs won four more games than the Rockies did during the regular season and have far more playoff experience than Colorado does.  Chicago manager Joe Maddon has taken his North Siders to the playoffs four times, immediately on the heels of taking his former team, the Tampa Bay Rays, to the postseason on four occasions.  Maddon has also won more pennants (two) than his counterpart, Bud Black, has managed postseason games (one).  And you can always expect the crowd at Wrigley Field to be raucous, especially in a do-or-die game.

Cole Hamels

Everything seems to suggest that the Cubs should easily dispose of the Rockies in the Wild Card game.  Colorado has to overcome a playoff-tested opponent managed by a potential future Hall of Famer.  They also have to play 4,683 feet closer to sea level than they're used to.

But the Rockies have one key advantage over the Cubs.  Colorado doesn't have Cole Hamels on their payroll.  Chicago does.  And really, that's all that matters to me.  Because no team that feels the need to fatten Hamels' wallet should ever be allowed to advance in the postseason.

Prediction: Colorado will advance to the NLDS.



American League Wild Card Game

Oakland A's vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees were expected to run roughshod over the rest of the American League this season.  They didn't quite do that, finishing eight games behind the rival Red Sox in the A.L. East.  Meanwhile, Oakland was expected to sell off their players at the trade deadline after a disappointing start.  Instead, they added pitchers Edwin Jackson, Shawn Kelley, Mike Fiers, Fernando Rodney and some guy named Jeurys Familia and went 63-29 in their last 92 games to comfortably secure the second wild card spot.

A's versus Yankees usually doesn't end up well for the team from the left coast.  The two teams have faced each other three times in the postseason (1981, 2000, 2001).  New York emerged victorious on each occasion.  (I have a selective memory, so I'm choosing to ignore what happened in the World Series in 1973.  If I ignore it, then it didn't happen.)

It's not just in baseball where New York takes care of Oakland in postseason affairs.  On December 29, 1968, the New York Jets defeated the Oakland Raiders in the AFL Championship Game on their way to their first and only Super Bowl title.

If it seems like no one can remember the last time Oakland defeated New York in anything (remember, 1973 never happened in my mind), that's because no one was allowed to see it when it happened.  I mean that literally, not figuratively.

Ever hear of "The Heidi Game"?  On November 17, 1968, the Jets held a 32-29 lead over the Raiders with under a minute to play.  The NBC television network was broadcasting the game, but because they were obligated to show the movie "Heidi" at 7:00pm, the game did not air to its conclusion and the football-loving audience instead saw the first few minutes of "Heidi" instead of two touchdowns by the Raiders, which turned an apparent New York victory into a bitter 43-32 defeat.

Sheldon, you're no Heidi.

The Heidi Game will be celebrating its 50th anniversary in less than seven weeks.  I can't think of a better way to celebrate that special moment in sports history - one in which no one saw a team from Oakland defeating a club that calls New York home - than by having the A's ending the Yankees' season, hopefully without TBS switching off the game to show reruns of "The Big Bang Theory."

Prediction: Oakland will advance to the ALDS.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2017 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

I wonder who I'm picking to win the N.L. Wild Card game.  If only I had a sign to help me...

Hey, how's everybody doing?  I'm playoff prognosticator Joey Beartran and I'm ready for some postseason baseball.  This is the first season since 2014 that the Mets were not invited to the playoff party but many players who called Flushing home at some point in 2017 did receive - and accept - their invitations.

The Indians and Dodgers, owners of the best regular season records in their respective leagues, are bringing Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, respectively, to the postseason.  Addison Reed will be coming out of the bullpen for the A.L. East champion Red Sox.  Even Rene Rivera could crack the defending World Series champion Cubs' 25-man postseason roster.

Last year, the Yankees stayed home and the Mets played past their 162nd game.  This year, New York (AL) is hosting the Minnesota Twins in the wild card game and New York (NL) is busy showing off videos of Jacob deGrom's haircut.  Seriously, that's how the Mets are making news this October.  (Well, that and Terry Collins saying adios to Mets fans.)

Say it ain't so, Jake!  (Screen grab courtesy of Jose Reyes' Snapchat)

So since we don't have meaningful Mets baseball games until next March 29, we should probably focus on the wild card games set for Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Will the Yankees win their first postseason game since Zach Lutz was a Met?  Will the Twins finally end their 12-game postseason losing streak?  Will the Rockies ride Chuck Nazty to the division series?  Or will Arizona get their revenge on Colorado for the 2007 NLCS?

There's only one way to know what's going to happen before it happens.  And that's by reading my wild card picks below; picks that are not biased at all.  Trust me.  I'm an expert.


American League Wild Card Game


Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

The Twins have never defeated the Yankees in a postseason series, having dropped the ALDS to the Bronx Bummers in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010.  More recently, New York won all three games played against Minnesota at Yankee Stadium in 2017.  And to make matters worse for the Twins, their starting pitcher for the wild card game - Ervin Santana - has an 0-5 record with a 6.43 ERA in six career starts at the new House That Juice Built.

For the Yankees, starting pitcher Luis Severino struck out 230 batters during the regular season, which was tied for the third-highest total in Yankees history.  In addition, his 153 ERA+ made him the first Yankees starting pitcher to register an ERA+ over 150 since David Cone had a 159 ERA+ in 1997.

I heart Bart.  (Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

The Yankees go into the postseason on a roll, having won 21 of their last 30 games.  The Twins were a .500 team in September, going 14-14 in the month.  New York has ten-foot tall Aaron Judge clubbing everything out of sight.  Minnesota's top home run hitter is Brian Dozier, who's half the size of Judge and hit 18 fewer homers.  Everything seems to be coming up Yankees in this game, right?

Nah.

Santana wins his first game at the new Yankee Stadium, Miguel Sanó does his best David Ortiz impression (but from the right side of the plate) and Bartolo Colón's career lives to see another round.

Prediction: Minnesota will advance to the ALDS.


National League Wild Card Game


Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Both Colorado and Arizona reversed their fortunes in 2017.  Literally.  The Rockies improved their record from 75-87 to 87-75, while the D-Backs went from 69-93 to 93-69.  But neither team came within striking distance of the first place Dodgers, necessitating this one-game face-off for the right to be swept by Justin Turner and Friends.

Last year, the Mets played in this game and ran into a buzzsaw on the mound in Madison Bumgarner.  This season, Jon Gray and Zack Greinke will try to be this year's Bumgarner.  It's too bad both pitchers will fail, as this game will be a Wild West shootout.

Gray will have to control the bats of Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez.  It will not go smoothly.  Greinke, on the other hand, will be staring down Nolan Arenado and batting champion Charlie Blackmon, among others.  Because of his reputation, Greinke will be left in the game a little too long.  Like five or six runs on the scoreboard too long.

Arizona may have finished ahead of Colorado in the standings, but the Rockies will finish ahead of the Diamondbacks in this game.  And if Arizona ordered a large number of churro dogs in anticipation of a lengthy postseason run, I know someone who can help them reduce their inventory.

#GIFparty + #tbt = Churro Dog! pic.twitter.com/chlMT4ezlC

— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) March 3, 2016

Prediction: Colorado will advance to the NLDS.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2016 Somewhat Biased Wild Card Game Picks

O, Canada!  Not my home nor my native land!  But it is a place where playoff baseball is about to be played.

Hey, buddy.  This is playoff prognosticator Joey Beartran and this is what I'm talking aboot, eh.  It's time for America's pastime to begin its postseason in Canada, with division rivals Baltimore and Toronto playing a do-or-die wild card game at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.  There's also another game being played on Wednesday featuring some National League teams, I think.

As recently as five years ago, the Blue Jays and Orioles were perennially at the bottom of the A.L. East division standings.  In fact, from 2008 to 2011, Toronto was next-to-last in the division every season.  The team that kept them out of the A.L. East cellar each year was Baltimore.

The Orioles suffered through 14 consecutive losing seasons from 1998 to 2011, while the Blue Jays were kept behind the postseason velvet rope for over two decades from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s.  But much has changed for both teams in recent years, as Baltimore just completed its fifth consecutive season playing .500 ball or better, qualifying for the playoff party for the third time in those five years.  Meanwhile, Toronto is making its second straight trip to the postseason after finishing no higher than third place in the division in 20 of 21 seasons from 1994 to 2014.

Speaking of teams tasting success three times in five years and clubs making back-to-back playoff appearances, the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets will be squaring off for the right to be Cub food, if the "experts" are to be believed.

Who will spray champagne this week?  Who will go home and feel like they never made the playoffs at all?  And who will actually think I'd pick San Francisco when I wear a Mets hoodie 24-7?

You want some Wild Card game picks?  I've got your Wild Card game picks right here!


American League Wild Card Game


Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Orioles and Blue Jays were very evenly matched in the regular season, with Toronto winning the season series, 10-9.  Eleven of the 19 contests were decided by no more than two runs, including eight one-run affairs.  So basically, what I'm saying is that this Wild Card game is a toss-up.

Baltimore will be sending Chris Tillman to the mound.  On paper, Tillman's 16-6 regular season record and 3.77 ERA look fairly impressive, especially considering that no qualifying pitcher in the American League posted an ERA south of 3.00.  There's only one problem with Tillman.  He's not very durable, averaging barely over 5⅔ innings per start.  And not once did he make it past the sixth inning in any of his four starts versus Toronto this season.  However, Baltimore had just enough offense in each of those four games, winning every one of the Tillman's starts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto will answer with third-year pitcher Marcus Stroman, who was just mediocre in 2016, going 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.289 WHIP after combining to go 15-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in his first two seasons.  Baltimore had its way with Stroman this season, scoring 18 runs (all earned) in 23 innings against him.

But the playoffs are a different animal, and as soon as either pitcher is in trouble, their respective managers will hop out of their dugouts, hooks in hand to remove them.  So Tillman may not even be allowed to reach his 5⅔-inning quota and Stroman won't come close to giving up a handful or two of runs, as he did during the regular season.

Baltimore may have a pitching edge, but their hitters are all-or-nothing.  The Orioles out-homered the Blue Jays, 253-221, but Toronto scored 15 more runs, walked 164 more times and struck out on 38 fewer occasions.

It looks like this game - just like during the regular season - will be a tight one.  So you'd think I'd have a tough time picking a winner, right?  Not at all.  You see, the winner of this game will play the Texas Rangers in the division series.  And I want to see a little more of this.

Sorry, Baltimore.  I love your city, but you're the undercard here.  I'm looking forward to the next round of heavyweight action between Texas and Toronto.

Prediction:  Toronto will advance to the ALDS.


National League Wild Card Game


San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets

Madison Bumgarner is 5-0 in six career starts against the Mets.  He's also the owner of a 0.62 lifetime ERA in four starts at Citi Field.  And don't forget he's part of a Giants team that always wins championships in even-numbered years.

You also may have heard that Bumgarner's manager, Bruce Bochy, has led his respective teams to eight postseason appearances, six division titles, four pennants, three World Series titles and has more playoff victories than all but four skippers in baseball history.

Whatever.

Prediction:  New York will advance to the NLDS.

Rogers Centre poutine > AT&T Park garlic fries.  Therefore, Toronto will advance and San Francisco will not.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2015 Obviously Biased Wild Card Game Picks

When in the state of Texas, you always have to wear your cowboy hat.

Howdy, pard'ner.  This here's Joey Beartran.  And if it's the beginning of October, then I reckon it must be time for my annual playoff picks.  (And how did I end up with this Texas twang?  Maybe it has something to do with my picks, y'all.)

Anyway, a lot has changed in the last few years of me making postseason prognostications.  Just two years ago, the Red Sox, Tigers and Athletics were all division champions.  This season, they were all cellar dwellers.  And the team with the most World Series championships (they shall remain nameless here) is back in the playoffs as a wild card, as is the team that's gone the longest without a title (they shall remain known as the Cubs).  That team I root for?  They crashed the playoff party for the first in nearly a decade, as did their 1962 expansion buddies from Houston.

But the Mets shall be discussed when it's time to share my division series picks.  You see, since they won the N.L. East, I don't have to worry about them potentially losing a do-or-die wild card game.  That's what the Astros, Yankees, Cubs and Pirates have to deal with.

So before my horse runs away without me on it, let me share my wild card game picks, which may or may not be biased, especially in one league.


American League Wild Card Game


Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

The last time the Astros made the playoffs, they still played in the National League and Hall of Famer Craig Biggio was still an active player.  That was 2005, when Houston was swept in their first-ever World Series appearance by the Chicago White Sox.  For those who like to keep track of meaningless things, if the Astros had been awarded a ring for every postseason game they won in their 54-year history, they'd still have six fewer rings than the Yankees have to commemorate each World Series title they've won.  (If you can't do the math in your head, just ask a Yankee fan to do it for you.  They know that number by heart and are more than happy to share it with you at all times.)

Carlos Gomez

The Astros led the A.L. West for most of the season, but settled for a wild card, although they did win six of their last eight games to finish the campaign on a high note.  Meanwhile, the Yankees had a supposedly comfortable lead in the A.L. East in early August, then stumbled to the finish line, losing six of their last seven games and 16 of their last 26.

One thing that stands out about this matchup is the fact that the Yankees were really bad at home over the final month and a half of the season.  New York was 10-15 in their last 25 home games, which included losing two out of three to the Astros in late August.  The Yankees were outscored, 21-4 in those three games.

Houston can beat you with power (230 HR - second in the A.L.) and speed (121 SB - tops in the league), and they'll be playing in a park that gives up its share of homers against a team that allows its share of stolen bases (base runners stole 50 bases against No. 1 catcher Brian McCann).  They also fared very well against Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka when they faced him earlier this year, scoring six runs in five innings against him.  And I haven't even mentioned Astros starter Dallas Keuchel, who won 20 games and is a top contender for the Cy Young Award.

As a Mets fan, it was obvious who my pick was going to be in this game, but I don't have to be a fan of a 1962 team to know that our brother in expansion is going to win this game.

Prediction: Houston will advance to the ALDS.


National League Wild Card Game


Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the third straight season that the Bucs are playing in the wild card game.  They won the one-game playoff in 2013, but fell to the eventual World Series champion Giants in last year's game.  Meanwhile, the Cubs are making their first trip to the postseason since 2008.  Chicago has not won a playoff since Game Four of the 2003 NLCS.  If you know who Steve Bartman is, you know how that series ended up.

Jake Arrieta

The Cubs have advanced in the playoffs just once since the advent of divisional play and are hoping to move on to the division series to take on their hated division rivals in St. Louis.  To do so, they'll have to defeat the Pirates - a team they beat 11 times during the regular season.  But the Cubs will have Jake Arrieta on the mound at PNC Park.  And how did he fare in Pittsburgh's ballpark in 2015?  How about a 0.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and just 12 hits allowed in three starts in Pittsburgh?  And considering that Arrieta had a 0.75 ERA after the All-Star Break against every team he faced (an MLB record), how could anyone pick against him?

Madison Bumgarner was the hottest pitcher on the planet last October and he began his run of dominance in Pittsburgh in the wild card game.  Arrieta - a native Texan, y'all - has already had a head start and there's no reason to think he won't continue to be great in this game.

The Pirates may have won 98 games, but that won't be enough against a blazing hot pitcher who only needs to win one game.

Prediction: Chicago will advance to the NLDS.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2014 Not-So-Biased Wild Card Game Picks

Greetings, salutations and howdy, everyone!  I'm Joey Beartran, your fav'rit Studious Metsimus prognosticator and masticator.  For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Yankees and Red Sox both failed to make the playoffs.  In addition, the Phillies finished in the cellar for the first time since the Mets' last World Series appearance in 2000.  (Unfortunately, the Mets finished below .500 for a sixth straight season, so not all of my prayers were answered.)

Ten teams qualified for the postseason, including five that haven't won a championship since the '80s (Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Dodgers and A's).  One hundred percent of teams that call Missouri home made it (Royals, Cardinals) and eighty percent of California teams are still playing (sorry, Padres).

Twenty percent of those ten playoff teams will be going home by the time I have breakfast on Thursday.  Will it be the Royals, who are in the playoffs for the first time since Buddy Biancalana led the team to a World Series title in 1985?  Will it be the Pirates, who just completed their second winning season in a row after two decades of futility?  Or will it be one of the Bay Area teams, who both have to go on the road for their wild card games?

Why am I asking so many questions?  And what am I having for breakfast on Thursday after the playoff field is down to eight?  Let's just got on with the wild card game predictions, shall we?


American League Wild Card Game


Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

Since 1986, the A's have made a dozen trips to the playoffs and been to three World Series, which is 12 postseason appearances and three pennants more than the Royals have over the same time period.  Experience usually prevails in these situations, right?  Not so fast.

The starting pitchers for Oakland and Kansas City will be Jon Lester and James Shields, respectively.  Lester and Shields have never faced each other in the playoffs, but their former teams have, as the Red Sox (Lester's team in 2008) and Rays (Shields' previous club) squared off in a classic seven-game American League Championship Series six years ago.

Lester won all three of his starts against the Royals in 2014, while Shields defeated the A's once and received a no-decision in his other appearance against Oakland, a game the Royals eventually won.  But this game is in Kansas City, where the Royals took three of four from Oakland in August.  And Oakland finished the year with a losing road record (40-41), which includes losses in 26 of their final 39 games away from home.

Shields isn't called "Big Game James" for nothing, and it's hard to overlook just how bad the A's have been outside of Oakland.  And although Lester did go 3-0 versus Kansas City this year, two of those wins came before he was traded to Oakland from Boston.

Prediction:  Kansas City will advance to the ALDS.


National League Wild Card Game


San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Giants have as many championships in the last four years as the Pirates have winning seasons in the last two-plus decades.  Which means absolutely nothing in this win-or-go-home game.  What does matter is the following.

Pittsburgh finished with a 51-30 record at PNC Park.  That was tied for the best home mark in the National League.  The Pirates also went 20-13 versus left-handed starters.  Only Washington and Los Angeles (owners of the two best records in the league) fared better.  Why are those facts important?

The wild card game will be played in Pittsburgh.  And San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner is a southpaw.

As good as Bumgarner was this year (18-10, 2.98 ERA), he had a very inconsistent season, allowing four runs or more in 12 of his 33 starts.  Meanwhile, Pirates starter Edinson Volquez posted a career-best 3.04 ERA and finished strongly, going 9-1 with a 1.85 ERA over his last 17 starts.

It's hard to ignore how dominant Volquez has been since late June.  It's also difficult to look past Pittsburgh's success at home and against left-handed pitchers.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh will advance to the NLDS.
  

Joey's Soapbox: My 2013 Unbiased Wild Card Game Picks

Greetings and salutations, everyone!  I’m Joey Beartran and I’m ready to give you my unbiased picks for the upcoming wild card round of the baseball playoffs.  In the past, my picks have occasionally been biased because I would never pick the Yankees or the Phillies to advance to the next round.  But this October, the Yankees and Phillies are only fighting for who gets the first tee time on the golf course.

Do you know how long it’s been since the Yankees and Phillies both missed out on October baseball?  Well, this is only the second time since the Yankees started sending out invitations to their annual postseason party in 1995 that they forgot to invite themselves.  The only other time in that nearly two-decade period that they failed to make the playoffs was in 2008, when the Phillies won the World Series.  Now if you recall, because of the players’ strike, the World Series was canceled in 1994, but the year before the strike, the Phillies won the National League pennant.  They didn’t win the World Series in 1993 because Mitch Williams served up a fat pitch that made Joe Carter’s eyes get as big as Cole Hamels’ ego.

You have to go back to 1992 to find the last postseason that didn’t have the Yankees or Phillies in it to torment Mets fans, making them root for whoever was matched up against them.  And 1992 was also the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates received a playoff invite until this year.  Hmmm.  Maybe all we have to do is make sure the Pirates make it to the playoffs every year and then we won’t have to worry about seeing the only two teams whose players make Scott Atchison look like a young whippersnapper.

On that Geritol-sponsored note, let’s get to my picks for the National and American League wild card games, where we can talk some more about the Pittsburgh Pirates.


National League Wild Card Game


Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Last week at this time, this wild card game had a chance to be played at Great American Ballpark in the Queen City.  But then the Mets socked it to the Reds once again, just as they did in the 1973 NLCS and the 1999 wild card play-in game.  The Mets took two out of three from the Reds in Cincinnati, starting a season-ending five-game losing streak for Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the Shama-Lama-Ding-Dong crew.  That, combined with the Pirates’ three-game sweep of the Reds to close out the season, moved this do-or-die game to the Steel City.  Clearly, the hotter of the two teams is Pittsburgh.  However, as the old saying goes, you’re only as hot as that day’s starting pitcher, and Cincinnati’s starter is Johnny Cueto.

Because of injuries, Cueto only made 11 starts this year, but with a 5-2 mark and a 2.82 ERA, the Reds are confident he’s the man to lead them to the NLDS.  Pittsburgh, for all the success they’ve had this year, have rarely done well against Cueto over the years.  The Pirates have faced him 21 times and have only pinned four losses on him.  They’ve also had a difficult time scoring against the right-hander, as evidenced by Cueto’s 2.37 lifetime ERA against the Bucs.

Of course, Pittsburgh is sending their ace, Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02 ERA) to the mound, giving them their best chance to advance in the postseason for the first time since 1979.  But you don’t have to remind Liriano that three of his eight losses came at the hands of the Reds.  I’m sure he's already quite aware of that.

That being said, PNC Park will be rocking on Tuesday, hosting its first ever playoff game.  In a city known for the more successful Steelers and Penguins, the Pirates are finding their way back into the hearts of Pittsburgh sports fans.  And with two members of the Mets’ 2013 Opening Day roster now toiling for the Buccos (Marlon Byrd, John Buck), they have an extra rooter in myself.  The Pirates won’t let their success-starved fan base down.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game


Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians

Earlier today, I was listening to the radio and heard ESPN’s Mike Lupica mention that over the last six years, the Tampa Bay Rays have spent as much money on their entire roster as the Yankees spent on Alex Rodriguez.  Tampa has now made the playoffs four times in the last six years, while the Yankees have also made the playoffs four times in six years.   Clearly, the Rays are a team that knows how to get the most of their players.

Unlike Tampa, Cleveland was willing to spend money this past offseason, signing outfielders Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to free agent contracts.  Both Bourn and Swisher had typical seasons (which for Swisher means 20 or more homers, lots of walks, even more strikeouts and the ire of opposing fans who pray on a nightly basis that he’s stricken with a severe case of laryngitis).  But one of the big finds for the Indians was former Mets’ first round draft pick, Scott Kazmir.  The Mets saw firsthand how dominant Kazmir can be when he had a 12-strikeout, no-walk performance against New York on September 6.  But Kazmir won’t be starting the wild card game for Cleveland.  Neither will ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who won 13 games for the Tribe.  Rather, it will be rookie non-sensation Danny Salazar.  Salazar will facing Alex Cobb, who was brilliant for the Rays in 2013, going 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA.

Basically, this matchup is the equivalent of Al Leiter facing Steve Parris in 1999 for the right to advance to the National League Division Series.  And we all know who get the better of who in that game.

It doesn’t matter that Tampa has to travel to Cleveland to play this game.  They traveled to Texas on Monday to play one game against a team they historically couldn’t beat after Game No. 162.  That history is now … uh … history.  Tampa has the right pitcher on the hill for this game while Cleveland does not.  Fans of “Bro-hio” will be singing “Bro-hi-NOOOOO!!” after this game is over.

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS. 

Pennant Races Are Heating Up On Labor Day

Photo by William Perlman/The Star-Ledger

Today is Labor Day, a day that celebrates the sacrifices and contributions of the men and women in the American work force.  But to baseball fans, it's a different kind of holiday, as it marks the unofficial beginning of the final month of the season, a time when pennant races and wild card chases heat up just as summer temperatures cool down.

No one will soon forget the incredible final month of the 2011 season, especially Game No. 162, when four games decided the wild card winners in each league.  It seemed like the entire country was going back and forth between Cardinals-Astros, Braves-Phillies, Rays-Yankees and Red Sox-Orioles.

With the addition of an extra wild card team in each league this year, those games would have been meaningless, as both the Cardinals and Braves would have made the playoffs in the National League and the Rays and Red Sox would have qualified in the American League, regardless of the outcomes of their 162nd games.  But just because there is an extra wild card to be won in either league doesn't mean this September is going to be any less exciting than last September.  In fact, it might be more compelling this year.

In the American League, the upstart Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles currently hold the two wild card spots.  But the Rays are only 1½ games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, while the Angels are only 3½ games back.  In the American League Central, the Tigers and White Sox are both two games behind the Orioles, but both teams are fighting it out for the division title.

No first-place team in the junior circuit has a lead in their division of more than three games.  The Yankees lead the East by two games over Baltimore.  The Tigers and White Sox are deadlocked atop the Central.  The two-time defending American League champion Texas Rangers have the best record in the league, but are clinging to a three-game division lead over the A's.

This is how tight the division and wild card races are.  The Rangers currently have the top seed in the American League with a 79-54 record.  The Tampa Bay Rays are only 6½ games behind them with a 73-61 mark.  But the Rays would fail to qualify for the postseason if the season ended today, while the Rangers would have home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.

Half of the fourteen teams in the American League are either in first place or within 3½ games of first.  Another team, the Los Angeles Angels, are not as close to the division lead, but are within 3½ games of the second wild card.  That's eight of the 14 teams still very much alive in the American League playoff race.

Both leagues have plenty of teams fighting it out for playoff spots.

The National League division races aren't as tight as the ones in the American League, with Washington leading the East by 6½ games, Cincinnati holding a 9½-game lead in the Central and San Francisco taking command of the West by 4½ games, but there are still many teams alive for the wild card spots.

As of today, the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals are the holders of the two wild card spots in the National League.  But the 72-62 Cardinals have two teams appearing in their rear view mirror, as the 72-63 Dodgers (a mere half-game back) and 70-63 Pirates (1½ games back) are trying to send the defending World Series champions home.

Speaking of the defending World Series champions, on Labor Day last year, the Cardinals were 8½ games behind the Braves for the wild card.  As we all know, the Cardinals made up that entire deficit and passed the Braves on the final day of the regular season on their way to an unexpected World Series title.  Why is this relevant in 2012?  Because that gives hope to the Milwaukee Brewers (6½ games behind St. Louis), Arizona Diamondbacks (also 6½ games back) and yes, even the New York Mets, who are currently eight games behind St. Louis for the second wild card spot entering their three-game series against the Redbirds today.

Thirty teams.  Ten playoff spots.  Including the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Mets, there are 16 teams within eight games of one of those ten playoff spots.  That's more than half of major league baseball still trying to crash the postseason party.

Summer might be coming to an end, but the heat isn't going away from the playoff races in both leagues.  In fact, it looks like it's only going to get hotter between now and Game No. 162.  Fasten your seatbelts.  It's going to be one heck of a ride.

Need A Right-Handed Bat? Call Carlos Quentin

Entering the final game before the All-Star Break, the Mets are 46-39, tied with the San Francisco Giants for the second and final wild card spot.  However, after the Washington Nationals, there are seven teams separated by 2½ games vying for four playoff spots, with the Mets smack-dab in the middle of that crowded pack.

There are too many teams jockeying back and forth for playoff positions, so the Mets are going to need to do something to help them pull away from the competition.  Clearly, their top need remains in the bullpen, but Bobby Parnell has been stepping up recently.  Tim Byrdak has been solid all year.  Since returning from the DL two weeks ago, Ramon Ramirez has not given up an earned run in 5⅓ innings.  And Frank Francisco was finally doing well before he got hurt last month (1.35 ERA, .176 BAA in his last 13 appearances prior to his DL stint).  The bullpen could use a lefty here, a pitcher not named Miguel Batista there.  But getting a right-handed bat might be just as pressing a need for the Mets.

Earlier today, Twitter and radio personality (not to mention podcaster extraordinaire) Mike Silva tweeted the following:

Mets have scouts following Padres big interest in Carlos Quentin. Pads want a couple prospects back. Name mentioned most is Michael Fulmer.
— Mike Silva(@MikeSilvaMedia) July 8, 2012

Carlos Quentin has always had a strong bat.  However, he is prone to injuries.  Ever since his first taste of the big leagues as a 23-year-old in 2006, Quentin has never played more than 131 games in a season.  However, when healthy (as he is now), he can be quite productive.

Quentin began the season on the disabled list, not making his debut with the Padres until May 28.  But once he returned to the team, his bat came along with him.  In 32 games this year, Quentin has batted .273 with 7 doubles, 7 HR and 17 RBI.  He makes excellent contact, striking out 18 times in 110 at-bats, and also has a keen eye at the plate, as evidenced by his .403 on-base percentage.  He is also not afraid to lean in on the plate.  In 2011, Quentin led the majors when he was hit by pitches 23 times.  Despite the fact that he has yet to reach his 30th birthday, Quentin has been hit by 105 pitches, which would make Ron Hunt and Craig Biggio proud.

Although Quentin has a .253 career batting average, he has always been at his best in clutch situations.  With runners in scoring position, he has a lifetime .281 batting average.  He is also a .324 career hitter with a runner on third and less than two outs, meaning he doesn't just make productive outs to drive in runs - he extends rallies by getting run-scoring hits.

There is always a question mark with Quentin when it comes to his health.  But when he's on the field, he's an above-average player who makes solid contact and can hit the ball out of any ballpark.  Think about this.  In only 110 at-bats, Quentin has hit seven home runs playing half of his games at Petco Park.  That's second on the team in homers, one behind team leader Chase Headley, who has hit eight home runs in 311 at-bats.  Headley has needed almost three times the number of at-bats Quentin has to hit one more home run.  Imagine what Quentin can do playing half of the season's remaining games at the more hitter-friendly Citi Field than in spacious Petco Park.

Finally, as a right-handed hitter, Quentin would help improve the Mets' chances against left-handed pitchers.  The Mets are an awful 12-20 in games started by southpaws, as opposed to a 34-19 record when facing a right-handed starter.  Quentin would combine with David Wright and Scott Hairston (who would move over to right field to give Lucas Duda a day off against a left-handed starter) to form a potent right-handed middle of the batting order against southpaws.

Carlos Quentin is available and the Padres are serving him up on a trade bait platter.  The Mets should reel him in before someone else snags him away.  He could be the equalizer the Mets need whenever their opponent starts a left-handed pitcher.

Mets Must Conquer The Four Games Over .500 Hump

On the morning of July 20, 2010, the Mets' record stood at 49-44, five games over .500.  They then proceeded to lose their next game, a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks, to fall to four games above .500.  Why is that game from almost two years ago significant?  Because that was the last time the Mets entered a game five games above .500.  And believe me, they've had their chances to get back.

Since dropping to 49-45 on July 20, 2010, the Mets have reached the four games over .500 mark on several occasions, yet have failed to get over the hump to five over.  Here are the results of all games the Mets have played since July 20, 2010 when they began the day four games above the break-even point.

• July 21, 2010: Entered the day with a 49-45 record.  Lost to Arizona, 8-3.
• July 29, 2011: Entered the day with a 55-51 record.  Lost to Washington, 3-0.
• April 10, 2012: Entered the day with a 4-0 record.  Lost to Washington, 6-2.
• April 15, 2012: Entered the day with a 6-2 record.  Lost to Philadelphia, 8-2.
• April 30, 2012: Entered the day with a 13-9 record.  Lost to Houston, 4-3.

That's five cracks to get five games over .500 over the past two seasons.  That's also five losses in those five attempts.  Why am I making such a big deal of this?  Because only two teams in major league history have ever qualified for the postseason without being at least five games above .500.

In 1973, the Mets won a very mediocre National League East with an 82-79 record.  They were the only team to finish with a winning record in the division, as the St. Louis Cardinals were the runner-up in the East with an 81-81 mark.  At no point during the 1973 season were the Mets at least five games over .500.  However, they were four games above the break-even point on three occasions during the season, at 4-0, 12-8 and 19-15.

Thirty-two years later, the San Diego Padres replaced the 1973 Mets as the division champion with the poorest record.  The 2005 Padres won the National League West with an 82-80 mark, taking the division by five games over the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Padres needed to win five of their final six games to finish with a winning record, as they were 77-79 (but had a three-game lead in the division) after 156 games.  San Diego did, however, conquer the four games over .500 hump during the first half of the season.  In fact, entering the month of June, the Padres had a 33-19 record.  Only the St. Louis Cardinals (33-18) and the eventual World Series champion Chicago White Sox (35-17) had better records than the Padres entering the month of June.  But as the Padres slumped, so did the rest of the division.  From June 1 until the end of the season, the Padres were 49-61.  But no team was able to take advantage of San Diego's slump (the San Francisco Giants had the best record in the NL West after June 1, if you can ever call a 52-60 record the "best") and the Padres held on to win the division crown.

The 1973 Mets and the 2005 Padres are the exceptions to the rule.  And that rule is that a team has to climb above .500 and keep climbing after they pass the break-even point.  The Mets and Padres needed the rest of the division to play poorly for them to come out on top.  Current teams can't even count on the wild card if they're barely better than mediocre.

In 1995, the Colorado Rockies won the wild card in a strike-shortened season with a 77-67 record.  Their .535 winning percentage is the lowest of any wild card winner.  Over a full 162 game season, no team in either league has won the wild card with fewer than 88 victories.  (The 1996 Baltimore Orioles and the 2006 Los Angeles Dodgers both seized their respective league's wild card with an 88-74 record.)  Simply stated, if you want to crash the playoff party, you better not settle for mediocrity.

Entering the month of May, this year's Mets have not spent a single day below the .500 mark.  However, they have also not been able to surpass the four games over .500 hump in three tries this year.  Going back to the summer of 2010, that number increases to five attempts.

Despite being one of the surprise teams in baseball over the first month of the season, the Mets still have a long way to go to truly be considered contenders in the National League East.  There may be a second wild card in the National League this year, but that doesn't mean the Mets should settle for mediocrity in their attempt to reach the postseason.  1973 and 2005 were aberrations.  The Mets have to conquer the four games over .500 hump if they're going to stay in contention for the entire season.

Joey's Soapbox: Why I Don't Like The Extra Wild Card

Earlier this week, Bud Selig announced the addition of two extra wild card teams that would be crashing the postseason party in 2012.  Although he used his index finger to point out why this would be good for baseball, what he really did was give real baseball fans such as myself the middle finger. (By the way, my Studious Metsimus colleague also believes extra wild card teams are a good thing.  It's okay.  He's allowed to make mistakes every once in a while.)

Why do I think baseball should not have changed its current playoff format?  I'm Joey Beartran and I'm about to get on my soapbox to tell you why.

Do you remember the last day of the 2011 regular season?  Sure you do.  You were watching the MLB Network or ESPN to see if Mr. Testosterone (Ryan Braun) would edge out Mr. Marlin (Jose Reyes) for the National League batting title.  But even after Mr. T fell short in denying the Mets their first-ever batting champion (I pity the fool who tries the take the batting title away from any Met), we didn't change the channel, as we were mesmerized by the Phillies-Braves, Cardinals-Astros, Red Sox-Orioles and Rays-Yankees games that would decide which teams would earn their league's wild card berth and which teams would go home.

Of course, under the new playoff format, none of those games would have had any impact on the wild card races, as every team's playoff destiny would have already been written.  Why mess with a good thing?  Because that's what Bud Selig does.  Isn't that right, Mr. This Time It Counts?

Also, by adding an extra playoff team in each league, our wonderful commissioner flipped us the bird by making it a one-game "series", rather than making it a best-of-three.  Just think of this scenario, using the Mets as an example.

In 2000, the Mets won the wild card by a wide margin.  With a 94-68 record, the Mets finished the year 26 games above .500.  No other competitor for the wild card finished more than 10 games above the break even point.  Of course, under the new system, the 86-76 Dodgers would have qualified for the playoffs as the NL's second wild card team.  Clearly, the Mets had an excellent season, as they finished only one game behind the first place Atlanta Braves in the NL East.  But anything can happen in a one-game playoff, a game they would have been forced to play under the new rules.

What if the Mets had used their best pitchers to try to win the division and then had to use their No. 5 starter in the one-game wild card playoff?  The 86-win Dodgers could definitely have ended the Mets' season in 2000, especially if they would be able to use either of their top two pitchers (Kevin Brown and Chan Ho Park combined to go 31-16 with a 2.92 ERA in 2000) in the do-or-die matchup.  The Mets might still be searching for their fourth pennant had these new rules been in place at the dawn of the millennium.

My colleague is a good man, and he usually has great baseball sense.  But by agreeing with Bud Selig and saying that the extra wild card teams will be good for baseball, he has as much sense as Jerry Manuel had during his post-game laugh-a-paloozas after the latest Mets' blowout loss.

I'm not your typical baseball traditionalist, but I do know that changing the current playoff format will not be good for baseball.  It will dilute the playoff punch and may lead to good wild card teams being knocked out by mediocre wild card teams because they couldn't win one game.

In football, any team can win on any given Sunday.  In baseball, any team will now be able to win in any given one-game wild card playoff game.  It's not good for those deserving wild card teams and as a result, it won't be good for baseball.

Why I Like The Extra Wild Card

With a wave of his mighty finger, Bud Selig recently announced that Major League Baseball has expanded its playoff format, going from an eight-team postseason to ten.  Fans everywhere have been discussing why they like or dislike the change.  I am on the "like" side of the fence, although my Studious Metsimus colleague, Joey Beartran, is not.  (That's okay.  We're still cool.)

I have a few reasons why I believe the addition of two wild card teams will be beneficial for baseball.  Hopefully, after you read them, you'll be on my side of the fence as well.

In all of the other major sports, mediocre teams are constantly winning championships or making it to the final round or game.  Just this past month, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl after going 9-7 in the regular season.  This came one year after the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record and defeated the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints in the playoffs.

In the NBA, the 1980-81 Houston Rockets advanced to the NBA Finals despite finishing the regular season with a losing record (40-42).  Had the Rockets lost to their opponent in the Western Conference Finals, the Kansas City Kings, there still would have been a team in the finals with a losing record, as the Kings finished the regular season with an identical 40-42 mark.  The Rockets' magical ride ended in the NBA Finals, where they lost to the Boston Celtics in six games.  The '80-'81 Rockets were one-upped by two teams in hockey.

The 1948-49 Toronto Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup after finishing the 60-game regular season with a 22-25-13 record.  But eleven years before their unlikely Stanley Cup victory, they lost the championship round to a team that was even worse during the regular season.  In 1938, the Chicago Black Hawks (they didn't become the one-word Blackhawks until the 1986-87 campaign) defeated the Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup.  This unlikely title came on the heels of a 14-25-9 regular season.  That's right.  The Black Hawks won only 14 of their 48 regular season games, yet they still skated away with the Cup.

While I don't think teams with losing records should win championships, I do think teams with excellent regular seasons should be allowed to compete for the title.  In 1993, the last non-strike season before the advent of the wild card in baseball, the San Francisco Giants failed to make the playoffs despite finishing the regular season with a 103-59 record.  Six years later, the Cincinnati Reds won 96 regular season games, but failed to win their division or the wild card.  (The Mets defeated them in a one-game playoff to clinch the wild card berth.  Yay!)

Even with the two extra playoff teams, Major League Baseball will still have the fewest teams qualifying for the playoffs in the four major sports.  Only one-third of the teams in baseball will be invited to the postseason party, as opposed to 12 in football and 16 each in basketball and hockey.  For most teams, a 90-win season would be considered a success.  But I'm sure the 90-win Braves would not consider 2011 to be a successful season.  Good teams deserve to be rewarded for their performance over the full 162-game campaign.  The extra wild card should provide that.

Another reason why I'm in favor of the second wild card is that it will encourage teams to win their division as opposed to just settling for the wild card.

Too many teams in the past have given up on the division title (cough cough, 2010 Yankees, cough cough) to rest their players if they had the wild card to fall back on.  Now, with the possibility of their season ending in a one-game, do-or-die wild card game, teams that can still win their division will go all out to win that hat and T-shirt awarded to division champions.  Those clothes will not only signify that the team has won a championship (in this case, a division title), but will give them a chance to play in an actual playoff SERIES instead of a playoff GAME, which will give them a better chance to win the World Series.

Division champions should have an easier route to the World Series, as too many wild card teams have won it all over the years.  (Since 1995, a total of ten wild card teams have played in the Fall Classic, with five of them winning it all, including last year's Cardinals.)  Now, if a wild card team wins the World Series, they will have truly earned it, needing to win an extra postseason game and having to do so without being able to set up their starting rotation in the way they would want.

Without question, the addition of an extra wild card team in each league is a good thing for baseball.  It'll provide fans with more excitement during the season's final month and give division champions a better chance to win the World Series.  I can't be more in favor of this new playoff format.

What If There Had Been Two Wild Cards Since 1995?

Beginning with this year's postseason, more teams will be getting wild in the fall.  Major League Baseball has approved the addition of two playoff teams, with one extra team in each league crashing the playoff party in October.

There will now be a total of ten teams qualifying for the postseason, with each of the six division winners receiving a first-round bye.  The remaining wild card teams (two in each league) will face each other in a one-game do-or-die playoff for the right to advance to the division series, where they will play a best-of-five series against the team with the league's best record.

Last year, in a scintillating final day of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention after leading their respective leagues' wild card races for most of September.  Under the new postseason format, both teams would have been involved in the new one-game playoff.

The last time baseball expanded its playoff format was in 1994, although the players' strike delayed its implementation until the following season.  So how would the Mets have fared had this year's new playoff format been in place since 1995?  And which team would have made the most playoff appearances since the National League split up into three divisions?

Expansion of the playoffs calls for expansion of our research, and we found some interesting information on what the National League playoffs would have looked like going back to 1995.  We'll begin with the most recent season (2011) and work our way backwards, with the team that won the wild card listed first followed by the team that didn't make the playoffs, but would have made it under the new system.  We'll also list the team or teams that were directly behind the club that would've been the second wild card and how many games back they were to determine if there would have been a tight race for the second wild card spot.  We'll begin now before we end up confusing ourselves.


2011: St. Louis vs. Atlanta.  Runner-up: San Francisco (3 GB)

2010: Atlanta vs. San Diego.  Runner-up: St. Louis (4 GB)

2009: Colorado vs. San Francisco.  Runners-up: Florida (1 GB), Atlanta (2 GB)

2008: Milwaukee vs. New York.  Runners-up: Houston (2½ GB), St. Louis (3 GB)

2007: Colorado vs. San Diego.  Runner-up: New York (1 GB)

2006: Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia.  Runner-up: Houston (3 GB)

2005: Houston vs. Philadelphia.  Runners-up: New York (5 GB), Florida (5 GB)

2004: Houston vs. San Francisco.  Runner-up: Chicago (2 GB)

2003: Florida vs. Houston.  Runners-up: Philadelphia (1 GB), St. Louis (2 GB), Los Angeles (2 GB)

2002: San Francisco vs. Los Angeles.  Runner-up: Houston (8 GB)

2001: St. Louis vs. San Francisco.  Runner-up: Chicago (2 GB)

2000: New York vs. Los Angeles.  Runners-up: Cincinnati (1 GB), Arizona (1 GB)

1999: New York vs. Cincinnati.  Runner-up: San Francisco (10 GB)

1998: Chicago vs. San Francisco.  Runner-up: New York (1 GB)

1997: Florida vs. New York/Los Angeles.  Runner-up: New York/Los Angeles (Even)

1996: Los Angeles vs. Montreal.  Runner-up: Colorado (5 GB)

1995: Colorado vs. Houston.  Runner-up: Chicago (3 GB)

The Mets' run to the playoffs in 1999 would have been much easier under the new format.

Opponents of the extra wild card point to the final day of the 2011 season.  Had the dual wild card format been in place last year, both the Cardinals and Braves would have qualified for the postseason, with the Giants finishing three games behind the Braves for the second wild card spot.  There would have been no drama on the season's final day because both St. Louis and Atlanta would have already clinched a spot in the wild card playoff game.  But looking at what the National League wild card races would have looked like under 2012 playoff rules, there would have a number of instances of Game No. 162 being for all the marbles.

In five seasons (1998, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009), the second wild card team finished a mere one game ahead of the team directly behind them.  In one instance (2000), two teams finished a game behind the team that would have been the second wild card.

There still would have been a season in which two teams would have tied for the second wild card berth.  In 1997, the Mets and Dodgers would have played a Game No. 163 to determine who would face the Florida Marlins in the wild card playoff game.

In 12 of the last 17 years, the race for the second wild card would have gone down to the season's final weekend, as the second wild card team had no more than a three-game lead over their closest competitors at season's end. 

Only twice (1999, 2002) in the 17-year history of the wild card would there have been no race for the second wild card during the final week of the regular season.  In each of the other 15 seasons, the team that finished directly behind the second wild card team finished within five games of that coveted spot.

The San Francisco Giants would have benefited the most had the two wild card format been in place since 1995, as they would made four extra trips to the playoffs (1998, 2001, 2004, 2009).  No other team would have been guaranteed more than two additional trips to the postseason.  (The Dodgers would have won the second wild card in 2000 and 2002, but they would have finished tied with the Mets for the additional wild card berth in 1997, needing to win a play-in game against New York to make the playoffs.)

More teams will be celebrating like this beginning in October.

 
In the mid-'90s, baseball purists denounced the wild card, claiming that if a team wasn't good enough to win their division, then they shouldn't be allowed to play for a World Series title.  A decade and a half later, those same people were overwhelmingly in favor of the format.

This year a second wild card team will be added to the mix.  Yet again, some people are not in favor of the change.  But looking at what this change would have done for pennant races had it been in place since 1995, it shouldn't take long for these new opponents to change their minds.  After all, you can never get too wild in baseball.