Daniel Murphy Could Win a Batting Title by Default

By not swinging his bat, Daniel Murphy could become the Mets' second batting champion in four seasons. (AP Photo)

Prior to being placed on the disabled list with a strained right calf, Daniel Murphy was having one of the best years of his career at the plate, leading the Mets in several offensive categories, including batting average, hits, runs scored and doubles.  Murphy wasn't just one of the best hitters on his own team, as he also ranked in the league's top ten in all four of those categories.

Although Murphy's .301 batting average wouldn't normally contend for a batting crown or even rank him in the league's top ten, the abundance of quality pitching in the National League has made Murphy an unlikely contender for a batting title.  And as unusual as it may seem, he's become a bigger contender since he got hurt.

Prior to his calf injury, Murphy played in 126 of the Mets' first 131 games before missing Tuesday's affair against the Atlanta Braves.  Two days later, the second baseman was placed on the 15-day disabled list.  On Tuesday, Murphy stood 16 percentage points behind National League batting leader Justin Morneau, who was hitting .317 for the Colorado Rockies.  The next seven players in the batting race were Ben Revere (.311), Andrew McCutchen (.307), Aramis Ramirez (.304), Yasiel Puig (.303), Matt Adams (.303), Jonathan Lucroy (.302) and Josh Harrison (.302).  Those players were all ahead of Daniel Murphy, who ranked ninth in the NL with his .301 batting average.

But since August 26, everyone but Josh Harrison has gone into a mini-slump.  Whereas Harrison has increased his batting average from .302 to .308, a 1-for-11 skid has dropped Morneau to .311, which still leads the very weak-hitting National League.  Similarly, Ben Revere has fallen from .311 to .307, while Andrew McCutchen has dropped two points from .307 to .305.

The other four hitters who were ahead of Daniel Murphy in the batting race have also fallen on hard times, with Ramirez (1-for-his-last-14), Puig (1-for-22), Adams (3-for-25) and Lucroy (3-for-18) all slipping under .300 since Murphy got hurt.

Without playing a game all week, Murphy has gone from ninth in the NL batting race to fifth, trailing only Morneau, Harrison, Revere and McCutchen.  He has also shaved six percentage points off Morneau's lead, as his .301 average is now only ten points behind Morneau's league-leading .311 mark.

Daniel Murphy is eligible to come off the disabled list on Tuesday, September 9.  But his strained right calf may not be healed by then.  Should Murphy be done for the season, perhaps his .301 average might be enough to earn him the National League's batting title.  Murphy's 568 plate appearances are already 66 more than the minimum required to qualify for the crown.  Plus, he's already passed four players who were ahead of him in the race without adding a single at-bat to his totals.  He just needs to pass four more, three of whom are dropping back in the pack.

It would be a strange way to win it, but Daniel Murphy's injury could help him attain an unexpected batting title.  In other words, Murphy's calf strain could end up being his best break.

Cutch and Go (Big Pelf)

Andrew McCutchen would've looked good in orange and blue, right?  It could've happened...

When the Mets lose in heartbreaking fashion, as they did Friday night in Pittsburgh, I tend to think of what might have been.  Did Daniel Murphy's caught stealing prevent the Mets from a potential big inning?  Could a Terry Collins ejection in the 10th provide the spark for an extra-inning rally?  Tonight I'm not thinking of those questions.  Instead, I'm going back a decade to see what might have been had the Mets not gotten swept by the Pirates in a doubleheader in late September.  Confused?  You won't be after reading this.

On September 19, 2004, the Mets and Pirates were both finishing out the season knowing that they were all going to playing golf in October rather than baseball.  New York and Pittsburgh were both near the bottom of their respective divisions entering the Sunday doubleheader at PNC Park.  Aaron Heilman and Ricky Bottalico combined to pitch a two-hitter against Pittsburgh in the first game.  The Mets lost, 1-0.  In the second game, New York's Kris Benson (the Bucs' first overall pick in 1996) got rocked for six runs against his former team.  The Mets lost both games to the Pirates, and ended the season with a 71-91 record.  Pittsburgh ended up with one more win than the Mets, finishing the year at 72-89 (they did not make up an earlier rainout).

The Mets earned the ninth overall draft pick by finishing 20 games under .500, while the Bucs got to select 11th in the 2005 June amateur draft.  New York drafted Mike Pelfrey.  Two picks later, Pittsburgh chose Andrew McCutchen.  Yeah.

So had the Mets split that late-season doubleheader with the Pirates in 2004, they would have finished the year with a 72-90 record, while the Bucs would have posted a 71-90 mark.  New York would have picked after Pittsburgh, rather than before them.

Would the Mets have drafted McCutchen had Pelfrey been taken off the board?  Would the Pirates have gone with Big Pelf had they been presented with that opportunity?  No one will ever know.  But it sure is interesting to consider how different these teams could have been had they flip-flopped their draft choices in 2005.  And that could have happened had the Mets played better in just one of two "meaningless" games against the Pirates at the tail end of the 2004 campaign.

We should all hope McCutchen doesn't continue to haunt the Mets the way he did Friday night at PNC Park.  And more importantly, we should all hope the Mets don't have any more heartbreaking losses that make me come up with crazy "what might have been" scenarios such as the one presented here.

Let's go Mets.  And go Big Pelf...

Wow, someone actually bought that shirt?

Fool's Gold For Juan Lagares

Earlier today, Rawlings announced their nominees for this year's Gold Glove Awards at each position.  Two Mets were nominated for the prestigious defensive excellence award.  Two-time winner David Wright will compete with Colorado's Nolan Arenado and Los Angeles' Juan Uribe for the prize at third base, while Eric Young, Jr. will go up against fellow left field nominees Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies) and Starling Marte (Pittsburgh).

But perhaps the Mets' best defensive player was mysteriously left off the list of nominees.  Hey, Rawlings!  Where in the world is Juan Lagares?

One of these Mets outfielders was nominated for a Gold Glove Award.  It's not the one you think.

The three finalists for the Gold Glove in center field are Carlos Gomez of the Milwaukee Brewers, Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Denard Span of the Washington Nationals - all worthy candidates.  But Juan Lagares may have the better defensive numbers, especially when considering the sabermetric stats, which are now part of the voting process.

Juan Lagares was second in the league behind Gomez with 26 defensive runs saved (DRS).  Meanwhile, McCutchen and Span combined to save just ten runs defensively.  (A.J. Pollock saved 15 runs for the Diamondbacks in center field and he was also snubbed as a nominee.)

Another stat used to measure a player's defensive value is UZR (ultimate zone rating).  Once again, Gomez led the league in that category with a 24.4 UZR, just slightly ahead of Lagares, who posted a 21.5 UZR.  And yup, McCutchen and Span together couldn't match what Lagares produced, as their UZR added up to 17.1.

Have you ever heard of ARM?  That's another sabermetric stat which measures the amount of runs above average an outfielder saves with his arm by preventing the advancement of base runners.  (This factors into the calculation of UZR.)  In common English, it shows how much opposing runners are afraid of running on an outfielder's arm.  Juan Lagares had a 12.3 ARM.  The three center field Gold Glove nominees (Gomez, McCutchen, Span) combined for a 9.0 ARM.

What else did Juan Lagares lead the league in?  Let's see.  There was Range Factor/9Inn, which measures putouts and assists per nine innings.  Lagares led the league with a 2.98 Range Factor/9Inn as a centerfielder.  He also led all outfielders, regardless of position, in that category.  There was also that handy, dandy assists thing.  Lagares led all centerfielders with 14 outfield assists, and added another one as a rightfielder.  His 15 total assists set a new Mets rookie record.

Not bad for a player who didn't become the team's regular centerfielder until the Rick Ankiel experiment was deemed a failure in early June.

I don't disagree that Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen and Denard Span are all excellent defensive players.  But how can a list of the top three centerfielders in the National League in 2013 not include Juan Lagares?  The kid will win a Gold Glove or ten before his career is over.  He should have been considered for his first this year.