Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Magic Fortune Cookie Predicts the 2019 Mets Season

Last season, the Mets produced a Cy Young Award recipient in Jacob deGrom.  They also saw Zack Wheeler finally turning the corner and Noah Syndergaard emerging victorious in 13 of his 17 decisions.  And that's not to mention Michael Conforto setting career highs in home runs and RBI, Jeff McNeil continuing to rake at sea level after tearing up the Pacific Coast League and Brandon Nimmo reaching base in over 40% of his plate appearances, all while making a good case to play Guy Smiley in a live action Sesame Street movie.

What did all this individual success get them?  Just a measly 77-85 record and a fourth place finish for the sixth time in the Citi Field era.

But new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen insists that this year's Mets will be different than the previous two seasons.  This year's squad has All-Stars galore in new additions Robinson Canó, Edwin Díaz and Wilson Ramos.  Throw in Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (when his boo boo heals) and the greatest first baseman in Mets history who still hasn't played a game at the major league level, Pete Alonso, and the Mets should easily tack on a few wins to last year's total, especially if none of their games against Derek Jeter's Marlins are postponed and not made up.

Of course, I'm not an expert on anything.  But I do know a good Mets prognosticator when I see one.  That's why, back by popular demand, I give you our resident Studious Metsimus soothsayer.  Please put your hands together for the one and only Magic Fortune Cookie.




Why would you say that?  I just paid you a compliment and if people want to applaud you for being good at what you do, you shouldn't tell them not to do so.




Because you're a fortune cookie.  Got it.  Well, I think you're great.  Except when you're insulting me.  Which I'm sure you won't be doing this time around, right?




I'll try to not ask silly questions then.  Let's begin.  How do you feel about Jacob deGrom finally being given the contract extension that every big leaguer and their mothers were getting this off-season?




Wait, what?  What kind of answer is that?  That has nothing to do with my question.




Well, you certainly did that.  Now can you answer my question?  And please leave the insults back at the restaurant.




Thank you for your honest response.  And why do you think it needed to be done?  Were you afraid he'd take a dip in the free agent waters after the 2020 campaign without the extension?




Moving on to his fellow moundsman, do you feel Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler will ever put up a season similar to the one deGrom completed last year?  And if so, which one has the potential to parlay such a season into a similar nine-figure deal with the team?




And how can you be so certain it's Thor and not Wheeler who gets the big payday from the team?




It most certainly isn't.  Moving on to the bullpen, is the one-two punch of Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz going to mean lights out for the opposition if the Mets have the lead through seven innings?




Hate to break it to you, but the 2010 team wasn't very good.  Not only that, but they didn't really have an eighth inning guy.  I mean, nearly half of Fernando Nieve's relief appearances that year came in the eighth inning and his ERA was an even 6.00.




Well, that was an unfortunate and embarrassing incident in club history.  Speaking of unfortunate and embarrassing, what do you think about the Wilpons' decision to finally have a Tom Seaver statue at Citi Field, announcing the news after his family revealed that he was retiring from the public life and would not be able to join his 1969 teammates for their 50th anniversary reunion at the ballpark?




I can understand your feelings for Seaver, but why do you feel happy for the men who caught Seaver in 1969?




Travis d'Arnaud probably won't be pleased to find out that you believe a couple of septuagenarians and an octogenarian are currently better equipped to handle the team's backup catcher's position.




Fair point.  Let's continue talking about up-the-middle players.  Why do you think Fred Wilpon agreed to take on the contract of Robinson Canó?  He's usually allergic to spending money.  Why did he change his ways for Canó?




I don't get it.




Oh, now I get it.  Papa Smirk was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan growing up.




Har-de-har-har.  Let's move on to the outfield.  Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo had strong seasons in 2018.  But teams need three outfielders.  Who will see the bulk of the playing time as the team's third outfielder?




Uh, you do know that Céspedes will start the season on the injured list and may not play until very late in the season, if he plays at all, right?




I suppose that could happen.  At least you didn't say Dominic Smith, so I can breathe a sigh of relief there.  And while I'm on the topic of first basemen, what numbers do you think Pete Alonso will produce at the position?




That's not very impressive.  Loney and González combined for just 15 HR and 60 RBI during their time with the Mets.  Pretty much any first baseman can produce those numbers over a full season.




That's promising news indeed!  Next-to-last question.  Do you think new hitting coach Chili Davis will help the team improve their putrid .234 team batting average, which was the Mets' lowest mark since the 1972 campaign?




Wait, you're not a sportswriter.  How does a fortune cookie have sources?




That was awful.




Your predictions might be good, but your jokes - for a fortune cookie - are a little stale.




Fine.  Last question.  What do you think the Mets' final record will be and where will they finish in the National League East?




And here I was, thinking the Mets had improved their team enough to make it into October.




Well, I oughta...




On that note, I'd like to thank the Magic Fortune Cookie for doing the best it could at making difficult predictions about an unpredictable team.  I'd also like to thank myself for exhibiting the self-control needed not to break open the fortune cookie every time it insulted me.  There's only so much a non-sleep inducing blogger can take.

Until next time, I hope you enjoy Opening Day, the 1969 reunion weekend and the rest of the season.  And remember, if the Mets purchase the contract of Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the Long Island Ducks, we're all in trouble.


LET'S GO METS!!


Hey, kids!  Prior to last year's hiring of the Magic Fortune Cookie, it was the Magic 8-Ball that was making predictions for Studious Metsimus, doing its job every season since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the eight seasons it was on the Studious Metsimus payroll from 2010 to 2017, and what the Magic Fortune Cookie said in its debut in 2018, please click on the links below:




Friday, March 22, 2019

Milestones Within Reach For Members of the 2019 Mets

We all want to reach a certain number when we set out to do things.  Some people want to walk 10,000 steps in a day.  Others want to consume no more than 2,000 calories on a daily basis.  And a select few want a minimum of five engagement rings in a lifetime.  (I may or may not be talking to you, J-Lo.)

Our obsession with hitting a round number is no different than a major league baseball player's quest to do the same thing.  The guys who will forever be known as members of the 2019 Mets are no exception, as several of the team's players could reach and - dare I say it - surpass various career milestones during the course of the season.

So which of the everyday players are going to reach a lofty numerical mark this season?  Is there a member of the I-work-once-every-five-days fraternity who will look at his Baseball Reference page and see a nice round number next to one of his cumulative stats?  And why does Jason Vargas look like he just attempted to rescue a struggling swimmer on the beach before he himself needed to be saved by the lifeguard on duty?  At least two of those questions will be answered below.  Enjoy!


Jason Vargas has nothing on David Hasselhoff or his hair stylist.  (Matt Ehalt/Twitter)


Attainable Individual Milestones (Position Players)


Michael Conforto:

  • Needs 24 home runs to reach 100 for his career.
  • Needs 150 hits to reach 500 lifetime base knocks.
  • Needs 20 doubles to reach triple digits in that category.
  • Needs to strike out less.  I mean, seriously, by the end of this season, he's going to be knocking on the door of the top ten whiffers in club history.  Make more contact, dude!


Robinson Canó:

  • Needs 30 hits for 2,500 in his career.
  • Needs 12 runs scored to reach 1,200.
  • Needs 93 RBI to become one of baseball's all-time top 100 run producers.
  • Needs to forget he's 36 and hit like he's 26.  Oh, and we're going to need him to play solid up-the-middle defense as well.  As the wise philosopher Bill Lumbergh once said, "That would be great".


Todd Frazier:

  • Needs seven home runs to reach 200.
  • Needs 93 hits to reach 1,000 for his career.
  • Needs 69 strikeouts to also reach a grand.
  • Needs to realize that no one is going to be lining up outside Citi Field two hours before the gates open to get his WWE bobblehead on Saturday, April 6.  Except maybe those fans who mistakenly think the Jacob deGrom Cy Young Award bobblehead is going to be given out that day instead of the following afternoon.


Brandon Nimmo:

  • Needs 26 RBI to reach 100 in his brief career.
  • Needs 81 walks for 200, a number attained by only three dozen Mets players.
  • Needs to get hit by 23 pitches to match Lucas Duda atop the Mets' all-time leaderboard.
  • Needs another solid year at the plate to become just the fifth player in Mets history to produce back-to-back seasons with a 5.0 oWAR or higher.  I'm not kidding.  Only Darryl Strawberry (1987-88), Edgardo Alfonzo (1999-2000), Mike Piazza (2000-01) and David Wright twice (2007-08, 2012-13) produced an offensive WAR of at least 5.0 in consecutive campaigns.  Hernandez, HoJo and Beltrán never did it.  I'm sure joining those franchise legends would finally give him a reason to smile.


Yoenis Céspedes:

  • Wait, he's still on the team?


Pete Alonso:

  • Needs 15 home runs to surpass the total Dominic Smith put up in parts of two seasons.
  • Needs to be on the Opening Day roster.
  • Needs to hit one up in the Budweiser Landing on May 25 since I'll be up there and I've never caught a home run ball (or foul ball for that matter) in the 700+ games I've attended in person.  Do it for this beleaguered blogger, Pete!


Do me a solid and hit one solidly on May 25, Pete!  (Photo by Gary Dunaier/Baseball Fever; Orange Text by Ed Leyro)



Attainable Individual Milestones (Pitchers)


Jacob deGrom:

  • Needs 102⅓ innings pitched to reach 1,000 in his career. 
  • Needs 173 strikeouts to move into the Mets' all-time top five in whiffs.
  • Needs 12 wins to finally knock Steve Trachsel out of the team's top ten in that category.
  • Needs to get a bigger wallet 'cause the man's about to get paid.  By someone.  Hopefully by the Mets.


Zack Wheeler:

  • Needs five starts to reach 100.
  • Needs 184 strikeouts to be knocking on the door of the team's top ten lifetime fan artists.
  • Needs 163 innings to enter the Mets' all-time top 25, an impressive feat considering he missed two full seasons due to injuries and surgeries.
  • Needs to read the last attainable individual milestone I mentioned for Jacob deGrom and react accordingly.  Especially if he continues to progress as he did last season and doesn't turn into another Matt Harvey.


Noah Syndergaard:

  • Needs 14 starts for 100 in his career.
  • Needs 256 strikeouts to become one of the Mets' all-time top ten whiffer snappers.
  • Needs 13 wins to reach 50, which would match Mike Pelfrey's total with the Mets and would continue to prove that wins are a meaningless stat for pitchers.
  • Needs to decide what he wants to do with his famously flowing locks.  Man bun?  Shaved on the side, longer in the back?  What's next, a spiky hairdo a la Poindexter in Revenge of the Nerds?

Poindexter's hair looks like it had a date with Thor's hammer.  (Revenge of the Nerds/20th Century Fox)


Steven Matz:

  • Needs 29 starts to reach triple digits.
  • Needs 137 strikeouts for 500 in his career.
  • Needs his grandpa to come out to more games.  He's fun to watch.
  • Needs to stop being so streaky and start being more consistent.  The Mets haven't had many great southpaw starters in their history and right now he's closer to being Jon Niese than he is to being Jon Matlack.


Jeurys Familia:

  • Needs 60 appearances to enter the team's all-time top five in that category.
  • Needs two saves whenever Edwin Díaz needs a rest to reach 125 as a Met.
  • Needs 40 strikeouts to have more Ks than any Mets reliever not named John Franco, Tug McGraw, Jesse Orosco or Armando Benitez.
  • Needs to once again come into games with "Danza Kuduro" playing as his entrance music just so I can continue to use the Tony Danza GIF on Twitter.


Edwin Díaz:

  • Needs 41 saves for 150 in his career.
  • Needs 99 strikeouts for 400 lifetime whiffs.
  • Needs to reproduce his 7.3 K/BB ratio from last year.  No Mets reliever has ever had such a season.  (Addison Reed's 7.0 ratio in 2016 - 91 K, 13 BB - is tops for Mets relievers.)
  • Needs 34 saves to enter the Mets' all-time top 15, which says pretty much all you need to know about how few great closers this team has had in their nearly 60-year history.  I mean, Braden Looper and Doug Sisk are currently in the top 15, while Díaz has yet to throw a regular season pitch for the team.  Enough said.


Jason Vargas:

  • No, seriously, what's up with that hair and why is he still a member of the team?


Borrowing Tim Teufel's old glasses isn't going to fool us, Vargas!  (SNY screenshot)


Saturday, March 2, 2019

Pete Alonso Could Rewrite the Mets Rookie Record Book

This could be a familiar sight at Citi Field very soon.  (Michael Reeves/Getty Images)

Pete Alonso has dropped the "r" from his first name.  If he plays the way we all think he's capable of, he might soon be dropping several well-known Mets first-year hitters down a spot in the team's rookie record books.

As with most rookies in this era of baseball, Alonso stands a chance to not make the Opening Day roster.  Instead, he would be called up by the team shortly after the start of the season to give the Mets an extra year of control before Alonso becomes eligible for free agency.  That could hamper his ability to catch some of the Mets' best offensive neophytes in some categories.  But then again, Alonso did manage eye-popping totals in just 132 games at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2018.

Which players could Alonso supplant atop the Mets' rookie leaderboard if he continues to mash at the major league level?  The names are among the best in franchise history.


Home Runs

Player
Year
HR
Darryl Strawberry
1983
26
Ron Swoboda
1965
19
Ike Davis
2010
19
John Milner
1972
17
Jay Payton
2000
17




 Runs Batted In
 
Player
Year
RBI
Darryl Strawberry
1983
74
Ty Wigginton
2003
71
Ike Davis
2010
71
Steve Henderson
1977
65
Jay Payton
2000
62




 Runs Scored

Player
Year
Runs
Cleon Jones
1966
74
Ty Wigginton
2003
73
Ike Davis
2010
73
Gregg Jefferies
1989
72
Steve Henderson
1977
67



 
Base Hits

Player
Year
Hits
Ty Wigginton
2003
146
Ron Hunt
1963
145
Jay Payton
2000
142
Ike Davis
2010
138
Cleon Jones
1966
136




 Doubles

Player
Year
Doubles
Ty Wigginton
2003
36
Ike Davis
2010
33
Kaz Matsui
2004
32
Justin Turner
2011
30
Ron Hunt
1963
28
Gregg Jefferies
1989
28
 




 On-Base Percentage (Min. 350 PA)

Player
Year
OBP
Jason Phillips
2003
.373
Steve Henderson
1977
.372
Ike Davis
2010
.351
Hubie Brooks
1981
.345
Kevin Mitchell
1986
.344
 


  

Slugging Percentage (Min. 350 PA)

Player
Year
SLG
Darryl Strawberry
1983
.512
Steve Henderson
1977
.480
Kevin Mitchell
1986
.466
Jay Payton
2000
.447
Jason Phillips
2003
.442
 


  

On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (Min. 350 PA)
  
Player
Year
OPS
Steve Henderson
1977
.852
Darryl Strawberry
1983
.848
Jason Phillips
2003
.815
Kevin Mitchell
1986
.811
Ike Davis
2010
.791





Offensive Wins Above Replacement (Min. 350 PA)

Player
Year
oWAR
Ron Hunt
1963
3.9
Darryl Strawberry
1983
2.8
Steve Henderson
1977
2.6
Gregg Jefferies
1989
2.4
John Milner
1972
2.2
Hubie Brooks
1981
2.2



Pete Alonso finished the 2018 campaign with 36 home runs and 119 RBI, scoring 92 runs in 132 games.  He also produced 31 doubles out of his 136 hits, while reaching base at a .395 clip, slugging .579 and putting up a .975 OPS.  Looking above at the numbers produced by the Mets' top hitting rookies in club history, Alonso has the potential to be the best neophyte of them all.

One other thing about Mets rookies.  The six guys listed above on the oWAR chart all placed in the top three in the National League Rookie of the Year vote, with Milner, Brooks and Jefferies finishing third in their respective rookie campaigns.  Meanwhile, Hunt and Henderson were runners-up to baseball's all-time hits leader (Pete Rose) and a five-tool Hall of Famer (Andre Dawson), respectively.  And then there's Strawberry, who won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1983.

To this day, the Straw Man is the only everyday player to win the coveted award, as the other four Mets to take home the prize were all pitchers (Tom Seaver, Jon Matlack, Dwight Gooden, Jacob deGrom).  That means Alonso could join a very exclusive club if he approaches the numbers he put up in the minors last year.  Even without reaching those lofty figures, Alonso still has an excellent opportunity to become one of the best first-year hitters in club annals.

All he needs is a chance and his bat.  With those two things, the Mets rookie record books could soon be adding a new name.