Matt Harvey Is The Bizarro Bobo Newsom

When Matt Harvey left Friday night's game after pitching seven outstanding innings, it appeared as if he had a great chance for a victory.  After all, the Mets were nursing a 4-1 lead and only needed six outs from the bullpen to wrap up their 33rd win of the season.  But how quickly things changed.  The Nationals scored five runs in the final two innings to complete a 6-4, come-from-behind victory, denying Harvey his eighth win of the year.

The not-so-shocking turn of events gave Harvey his ninth no-decision of the year.  Going back to his major league debut last July, Harvey now has more no-decisions (11) in his career than wins (10), despite posting a spectacular 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 176⅓ innings.

Eventually, Matt Harvey will get his share of wins.  But seeing spectacular performance after spectacular performance wasted by a lack of offense or a faulty bullpen has got to be weighing on him.

Harvey is not the first pitcher whose win total doesn't jibe with his other statistics.  In fact, there was one particular pitcher whose numbers were so awful, he should have lost 20 games.  But he won 20 instead.  Such was the 1938 season of Bobo Newsom.

Everything Matt Harvey has been, Bobo Newsom wasn't - except for one thing.

Bobo Newsom was a well-traveled pitcher nearly four decades before the advent of free agency allowed players to change teams at will.  Newsom played for nine teams during his 20-year career, a rather impressive feat considering there were only 16 teams in the majors at the time.

When Newsom was good, he was very good, as evidenced by his 211 career victories and four All-Star Game selections.  When Newsom was bad, he was downright awful (222 defeats, led the league in losses four times).  And at times, the Jekyll and Hyde-like Newsom was both.  Never was that more evident than in 1938, when Newsom was a member of the St. Louis Browns.

Seventy-five years ago, Newsom became a 20-game winner for the first time in his career.  He also led the league in starts (40), complete games (31) and innings pitched (329⅔), making his first All-Star team and finishing fifth in the MVP vote.   Most pitchers would love to have those numbers and accolades.  But not if they had to take some of Newsom's other numbers.

In addition to his many impressive statistics, Newsom's bizarre 1938 season also saw him lead the league in hits allowed (334), earned runs allowed (186) and home runs allowed (30), while posting an unsightly 5.08 ERA.  In doing so, Newsom became the first pitcher in American League history (and third pitcher overall) to cough up 30 dingers in a season in the modern era of baseball (post-1900).  And to this day, his 5.08 ERA remains the highest ever for a 20-game winner, while his 186 earned runs allowed are still the most given up by a pitcher since 1900.  You read that right.  The most runs yielded by a pitcher in a single season was accomplished by a pitcher who won 20 games in that season.

Newsom's season can be summarized by a start he made on June 19 against the Yankees.  In that start, Newsom allowed a whopping nine earned runs.  A total of 17 Yankees reached base against Newsom, with eight of them drawing a walk.  Of course, Newsom was the winning pitcher in that game, a 10-9 victory for the Browns.

That brings us back to Matt Harvey.  (Remember him?)  As mentioned before, Harvey has started 27 games in his career, receiving credit for a win in ten of them, while getting socked with a no-decision 11 times.  Harvey has allowed three earned runs or less in 24 of those 27 starts.  The Mets have lost 11 of them.

This year alone, Harvey has allowed one run or less in 11 of his 17 starts.  He has five no-decisions and one loss in those games, meaning that he has less than a 50-50 chance to earn a win when he allows no more than one run.  Meanwhile, Bobo Newsom allowed three runs or more in 31 of his 40 starts in 1938.  He earned a win in 11 of them.  That's one more win than Harvey has in his career.

Matt Harvey is not the first pitcher to have a low ERA and a smaller-than-expected win total.  He's not even the first Met to do this.  In 1978, Craig Swan led the National League with a 2.43 ERA, but only won nine games.  Swan was victimized by 13 no-decisions.  Nine years later, a former Met wished he had a few more no-decisions when he won an ERA title.  In 1987, Nolan Ryan finished atop the Senior Circuit with a 2.76 ERA.  But Ryan only had an 8-16 record to show for it.  He allowed two runs or less in 22 of his 34 starts for the Houston Astros, but was the losing pitcher in nine of those games and received a no-decision in six others.

In 1938, Bobo Newsom had a season in which he was easily hittable and allowed more runs than any pitcher in the modern era of baseball.  His reward for a lousy year was his first 20-win campaign.  Matt Harvey is doing everything better than Bobo Newsom did 75 years ago.  He's just not being rewarded for it in wins.  It's a bizarre story indeed.

Mike Pelfrey: Standing Tall At Home

Look at the photo to the left. That was the linescore from last night's game, a complete game victory by Mike Pelfrey in which Big Pelf was voted co-player of the game with Carlos Beltran (who hit a monster two-run homer that was estimated at 460 feet).

It was the first complete game of the season for a Mets pitcher and the first by Pelfrey since 2008, when he pitched all nine innings in back-to-back starts on August 20 and August 25. What do those games in 2008 and last night's game have in common? All three efforts came at home. In fact, over his career, Big Pelf has stood quite tall at home, while wilting on the road.

Since coming up to the Mets in 2006, Mike Pelfrey has made 128 starts, going 47-46 with a 4.35 ERA, numbers that suggest a mediocre pitcher. However, his home/road splits suggest that Pelfrey is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type pitcher, as he performs surgery in his home uniform, but hides his talent in his road grays.

In 71 career home starts, Big Pelf is 29-21 (.580 winning percentage) with a 3.53 ERA. At Shea Stadium and Citi Field, he has given up fewer hits than innings pitched (446 hits in 450.2 innings) and has allowed only 24 home runs. The road is an entirely different story.

Mike Pelfrey has made 57 starts on the road. In those games, Pelfrey is 18-25 with a whopping 5.50 ERA. He has given up 392 hits in 322.1 innings and has allowed 38 home runs. Opposing batters hit .307 against him on the road, as opposed to .260 at home.

The home/road disparity has been more pronounced this year, as Pelfrey is undefeated at home (3-0) with a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Opponents hit .220 against him at Citi Field and he has allowed four home runs in 48.2 innings. On the road, Pelfrey becomes Little Pelf, going 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, allowing a .308 batting average and nine home runs in 41.1 innings.

Pelfrey's home/road splits are reminiscent of John Maine, the former Met right-hander who finished his career in New York with a 39-32 record and a 4.17 ERA. However, Maine was 22-14 with a 3.61 ERA at Shea Stadium/Citi Field and 17-18 on the road with an ERA a shade under 5.00.

Mike Pelfrey was regarded as a top prospect when he was first called up to the Mets in 2006. But while he has shown flashes of brilliance (13-11, 3.72 ERA in 2008, 15-9, 3.66 ERA in 2010), he has never been able to sustain that brilliance for an entire season's worth of games.

Pelfrey is the dictionary definition of a streaky pitcher. When he's hot, he's unhittable (see April 2010). When he's not, he makes fans wonder why he's still on the team (see April 2011).

If Mike Pelfrey is ever going to become a true ace (not the de facto ace because the team's true ace is out until who knows when), he must be able to translate his brilliance at home into road success. He can't forget to pack his talent in his suitcase when he's about to board a plane to another city. To be fully successful, a pitcher has to be consistently good all of the time. If a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey is going to be a success half of the time, then he's going to be the first syllable of the word "success" the other half.

Mike Pelfrey is better than that. He just has to stand tall on the road to fully realize his potential.

The Strange Case Of Dr. Jekyll And Mr. Maine

Since becoming a Met in 2006, John Maine has shown signs of greatness, such as his near no-hitter on Sept 29, 2007. However, he has never been able to maintain the consistent level of pitching that a pitcher of his talent needs to be a top of the rotation starter.

Never was this more apparent than during his 2009 season. In fact, you might say Maine's home-road splits last season suggest a case of the Jekyll and Hyde syndrome.

After losing his first start at Citi Field in 2009 to the San Diego Padres on April 16, John Maine took the mound at his home park six more times. These are the lines for those six starts:

• Apr. 27 vs. FLA: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 4 K
• May 9 vs. PIT: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K
• May 25 vs. WAS: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K
• May 31 vs. FLA: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K
• Sept. 20 vs. WAS: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K
• Oct. 2 vs. HOU: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K

Maine's totals over those six starts were outstanding. In 36 innings pitched, he gave up only three earned runs for a microscopic 0.75 ERA. He also allowed 18 hits and walked 11 batters, giving him a 0.81 WHIP.

Even if you include his performance in his April 16 loss to the Padres, Maine's overall numbers at Citi Field remained eye-popping. For the season, Maine was 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP at home.

Although Mets pitchers allowed 81 HR to opposing batters in 81 home games, Maine barely contributed to that number. In his seven starts at Citi Field, Maine gave up one measly home run.

Clearly, John Maine performed at his Dr. Jekyll-like best when toeing the rubber at Citi Field. However, all it took was a change in venue for Maine to make his Mr. Hyde-like transformation.

In eight starts away from Citi Field, John Maine went 1-6, with a bloated 6.92 ERA and an embarrassing 1.64 WHIP. He gave up seven home runs on the road even though he pitched fewer innings in his road grays than he did in his home whites (41.0 IP at Citi Field, 40.1 IP on the road).

Even his sole road victory in 2009 wasn't particularly impressive. On May 4 at Turner Field in Atlanta, Maine defeated the Braves. However, in his six innings of work, he gave up three runs, while allowing three hits and walking a whopping six batters. Fortunately, the Mets' offense showed up in the 6-4 victory.

Three runs in six innings is acceptable, but those three runs matched the TOTAL number of runs given up by Maine in his last six starts at Citi Field.

So which Maine will show up for the Mets in 2010? John claims to be fully recovered from his injury-shortened 2009 season. Will he regain his 15-victory form that he exhibited during the 2007 season, the year that featured his near no-hitter against the Marlins? Or will he continue to take one step forward and two steps back, all coinciding with his starts at home and on the road?

If he wants to escape from the Four Rainouts part of Johan Santana and The Four Rainouts, he'll need to be Dr. Jekyll for 30-plus starts. Then the only transformation Maine will make is the one where he becomes an All-Star.