The Mets Need Home Run Hitters At Home

Photo by Clayton Collier/Mets Merized Online

One of Sandy Alderson's top priorities this offseason is to acquire a legitimate power hitter.  After all, Marlon Byrd led the team this past season with 21 homers despite the fact that he finished the year in Pittsburgh.  It was the second time in three seasons that the team's home run leader closed out the year on another team, as Carlos Beltran led the Mets with 15 homers in 2011 before he was traded to San Francisco.

Since the Mets moved from Shea Stadium to Citi Field in 2009, the only players to hit more than 21 home runs in a season are David Wright (29 HR in 2010) and Ike Davis (32 HR in 2012).  Meanwhile, the Oakland A's and Atlanta Braves each had four players with at least 21 homers this past season alone.  Both teams won division titles in 2013.

When Citi Field first opened its doors nearly five years ago, the baseball cognoscenti deemed it a pitchers' park.  With the high walls in left field and the deep power alleys (it was 415 feet to one spot just to the right of straightaway center field), fly ball pitchers would not have to worry about opposing hitters taking them deep as often as they would at various other ballparks around the league.

But after two seasons of the pitcher-friendly dimensions, it was decided by the Mets' brass that the heights of the walls should be lowered and those walls should also be moved closer to home plate.  The Mets had averaged 56 home runs per season at Citi Field in 2009 and 2010 and the team felt the more fair dimensions would help its players produce more long balls.  Since the walls were moved in, they've certainly seen more balls leave the yard.  They're just seeing them come off their opponents' bats.

Let's look at the home run production by the Mets and their opponents compiled over the last two seasons of Citi Field's old dimensions and compare that to the power production for the first two seasons of the new, more fair dimensions of the park.

Year	Mets HR (Citi Field)	Mets HR (Road)	Opponents HR (Citi Field)	Opponents HR (Road)
2010	63	65	47	88
2011	50	58	58	87
2012	67	72	88	73
2013	59	71	90	62

During the last two seasons of the old dimensions (2010 and 2011), both the Mets and their opponents hit more home runs away from Citi Field than they did in Flushing.  In fact, Mets pitchers allowed 70 more home on the road than they did at Citi Field in 2010 and 2011.  But once the fences were lowered and moved in, the opposition took full advantage of the change while Mets' hitters barely noticed the dimensional differences.

In 2010 and 2011, the Mets hit 12 more home runs on the road than they did at home.  In the two years since the dimensional switch at Citi Field, the difference in home runs on the road versus home runs at home has actually increased to 17, meaning the Mets have been finding it more difficult to hit home runs at Citi Field even with the outfield walls lowered and moved in.  Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case for the Mets' opponents.

After holding opponents to 105 home runs at Citi Field in 2010 and 2011, Mets' pitchers allowed a whopping 178 homers in Flushing in 2012 and 2013.  Meanwhile, they've only given up 135 home runs on the road over the same time period.

Let's look at that again from a different angle.  In the last two years of the old dimensions at Citi Field, the Mets outhomered their opponents, 113-105.  But in the first two years under Citi Field's new outfield wall configurations, the Mets were outhomered by their opponents, 178-126.

Joey and Iggy Beartran let it be known that they want more homers at Citi Field by Mets hitters, not their opponents.

Clearly, the change in dimensions at Citi Field was made to help the Mets score more runs via the long ball.  But all it has done so far is make opposing hitters salivate every time they come to the plate.  After allowing 70 more home runs on the road than at home in 2010 and 2011, Mets' pitchers have given up 43 fewer homers away from Citi Field than they have in their home ballpark.  That's an alarming difference.

The Mets need to improve their offense in 2014, especially in the home run department.  But perhaps they should also reconsider what they thought was a good plan going into the 2012 campaign.  The new dimensions have only been advantageous to hitters wearing road grays.
 

The Walking's Dead

When Sandy Alderson came aboard as the Mets' general manager three years ago, he was known as an executive who encouraged his players to draw more walks.  More walks mean more base runners.  More base runners mean more runs.  And more runs mean more wins.  Additionally, taking more pitches causes the opposing starting pitcher to reach a high pitch count at an earlier stage of the game, causing him to exit the game earlier even if he's pitching fairly well.

But in 2013, the Mets had many more free swingers in their everyday lineup than they had in the past.  Players like Juan Lagares (20 walks in 421 plate appearances), Marlon Byrd (25 walks in 464 PA) and even Daniel Murphy (32 walks in 697 PA) spent more time trying to get four hits than four balls.  The end result was fewer big innings and fewer opposing pitchers being removed early.

Let's put this season's lack of patience at the plate in perspective.  There were only three players on the team who drew more than 40 bases on balls.  Those players were Lucas Duda (57 walks), David Wright (55 walks) and Ike Davis (55 walks).  Omar Quintanilla finished fourth on the team with 38 free passes.

Do you know when the last time was that the Mets had as little as three players draw 40 or more walks?  You'd have to go back to 2003, when Cliff Floyd (51 walks) and Ty Wigginton (46 walks) were the only two Mets to take ball four at least 40 times.  And for those who have a short memory, the Mets finished 66-95 in 2003 - the only year in the last two decades that the team finished with fewer than 70 victories (not including the strike-shortened 1994 and 1995 seasons).

Does that mean having fewer players drawing walks on a regular basis contributes to poor seasons?  Let me put on my mad statistician's cap (which is pretty much just a Mets cap with cat hair on it) and present to you some of my research.  Below is the list of seasons in which the Mets failed to have more than three players draw as many as 40 walks in a season (excluding all strike seasons).  Keep an eye on each team's final won-loss record, which is listed at the end of each line.

Year	Players With 40+ Walks	Record
1963	Duke Snider (56), Jim Hickman (44), Ron Hunt (40)	51-111
1964	Joe Christopher (48)	53-109
1965	Johnny Lewis (59), Bobby Klaus (45)	50-112
1967	Bud Harrelson (48), Ron Swoboda (41)	61-101
1968	Ron Swoboda (52), Jerry Grote (44)	73-89
1975	Rusty Staub (77), Wayne Garrett (50)	82-80
1983	Keith Hernandez (64), Ron Hodges (49), Darryl Strawberry (47)	68-94
1993	Bobby Bonilla (72), Howard Johnson (43), Eddie Murray (40)	59-103
1996	Todd Hundley (79), Bernard Gilkey (73)	71-91
2003	Cliff Floyd (51), Ty Wigginton (46)	66-95
2013	Lucas Duda (57), David Wright (55), Ike Davis (55)	74-88

There have been eleven seasons in Mets history in which three or fewer players were able to draw at least 40 walks.  The Mets failed to win 75 games in all but one of those seasons.  Their average record in those eleven campaigns was 64-98.

In case you think other factors were involved in those teams' lack of success, let's take a look at the walk totals for players on some of the most successful teams in franchise history.

The 1969 World Series champion Mets had five players who took 40 or more free passes (Cleon Jones, Tommie Agee, Bud Harrelson, Ron Swoboda, Wayne Garrett).  Seventeen years later, the 1986 champs were also able to produce five such hitters (Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, Gary Carter, Lenny Dykstra, Ray Knight).  In addition, seven other players on the '86 team walked 30 or more times.  But wait, there's more.

Half of the starting eight in 1988 walked 40 or more times, with three of them (Howard Johnson, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Magadan) drawing 60 or more bases on balls.

The 1999 squad had seven players with 40 or more walks.  Five of the seven reached base freely 60 times.  One year later, Benny Agbayani drew 54 walks.  That total would have led the 1964, 1967, 1968 and 2003 squads.  But in 2000, that was just the sixth-highest total on the team.

Finally, in 2006, David Wright was one of four Mets to make it to 40 walks.  His 66 bases on balls would have led most Mets teams.  But in 2006, that was only good for the bronze medal in the walk-a-lympics behind Carlos Delgado (74 walks - silver medal winner) and Carlos Beltran (95 walks - gold medal winner).

What do those six teams have in common besides having lots of players with lofty walk totals?  All six of them won 94 or more games and made it to the postseason.  And for those of you asking about the 1973 National League champion Mets - well, they also drew their share of walks, with four players reaching the 40-walk mark and three of those four surpassing 60.

Benny Agbayani showed a lot of life for someone who was a walker.

So let's recap.  Eleven teams in franchise history did not have more than three players draw 40 or more walks.  Ten of those teams finished with fewer than 75 victories and all eleven teams combined to finish 365 games under .500.

Meanwhile, the seven Mets teams to reach the postseason combined to produce a total of 35 players who walked 40 or more times.  Twenty-two of those 35 players drew 60-plus free passes.

Having many players with the capability and willingness to draw walks leads to more big innings.  If a team only has two or three players who can get on base regularly via the walk, that makes it more difficult to put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard because fewer players are drawing walks in the same inning.  That's not so hard to understand, is it?

When Sandy Alderson came on board following the 2010 season, he professed patience for his hitters.  In 2013, the Mets didn't listen to their professor, as most of the players adopted a "hack now, take pitches later" approach.  For anyone familiar with Mets history (or the chart ten paragraphs above), that approach is a recipe for disaster.  And that recipe has produced some of the worst seasons the team has ever seen.

The walking is dead at Citi Field.  And until more batters learn how to take ball four, nothing - especially pennants - will rise in Flushing.
 

Marlon Byrd Could Do What No Met Has Done Before

Power hitters don't usually run very well.  And speedsters aren't prone to hitting home runs.  So it would be reasonable to say that players who are among the league leaders in home runs don't usually find their names near the top of the triples leader board.  Of course, there have been some exceptions over the years.

Hall of Famer Stan Musial led the league in triples in 1948, 1949 and 1951.  He hit 39, 36 and 32 homers in those years, respectively.  More recently, in 2007, Jimmy Rollins led the league with 20 triples while hitting 30 homers to capture the National League Most Valuable Player Award.

Only three players in the modern era of baseball (since 1900) have led their respective leagues in triples and homers in the same season.  Those players are Willie Mays (13 triples, 51 homers in 1955), Mickey Mantle (11 triples, 37 homers, also in 1955) and Jim Rice (15 triples, 46 homers in 1978).  All three are in the Hall of Fame.

As you can see, it's quite rare for a player to be among the league leaders in both triples and home runs.  Just nine players have finished in his league's top ten in triples and homers over the past 20 years, as seen in the chart below.

Player	Year	Triples	Place	Home Runs	Place
Sammy Sosa	1994	6	T-6th	25	9th
Ellis Burks	1996	8	T-5th	40	T-5th
Vladimir Guerrero	1998	7	T-8th	38	T-6th
Barry Bonds	1998	7	T-8th	37	9th
Nomar Garciaparra	1998	8	T-4th	35	T-10th
Vladimir Guerrero	2000	11	T-2nd	44	T-4th
Luis Gonzalez	2001	7	T-8th	57	3rd
Ryan Braun	2007	7	T-6th	37	T-4th
Carlos Gonzalez	2010	9	6th	34	4th
Curtis Granderson	2011	10	3rd	41	2nd

Of the nine players in the last 20 years who have finished in the top ten in both three-base hits and homers, only Vladimir Guerrero accomplished the feat twice, doing so for the Expos in 1998 and 2000.  But notice that none of the nine players played for the Mets.  That shouldn't be surprising.  After all, only 16 Mets have ever cracked the year-end top ten in triples.  And of those 16 players, none of them hit as many as 20 homers. (Jose Reyes' 19 homers in 2006 are the most.)  Obviously, that means no Met has ever finished in the top ten in both triples and homers in the same season.

But that could all change this season.  And it might be done by an unlikely candidate.

Word.

Marlon Byrd currently has five triples and 20 home runs.  His five triples are good for a ninth place tie in the National League, while his 20 homers are tied for the eighth highest total in the Senior Circuit.  Should Byrd finish in the top ten in the league in triples, he would become the first Met to hit 20 homers in a season in which he cracked the top ten in triples.  In addition, should Byrd remain in the top ten in both triples and homers, he'd also become the first Met ever to do so.

Not Jose Reyes.  Not David Wright.  Not Darryl Strawberry.

Marlon Freakin' Byrd.

No one expected Marlon Byrd to do much for the Mets this year.  He was supposed to be part of a rotating outfield who could perhaps hit well against left-handed pitching.  But instead, he's become the team leader in home runs, runs batted in, and slugging percentage.  He also has a chance to be among the league leaders in both triples and homers.  That's something very few players can claim over the past 20 years.  That's something no Met has ever been able to claim.  Until now.  Maybe.

This has truly been a remarkable season for Marlon Byrd.  And it also has a chance to be an historic one.

Marlon Byrd: The Almost All-Star

Photo by Eric Risberg/AP

To say Marlon Byrd has resuscitated his career in New York would be a gross understatement.  Byrd was supposed to be a small piece in a puzzling outfield situation.  But instead, he has become one of the top run-producing outfielders in the National League.

After a grand slam on Tuesday and a two-run homer in yesterday's sweep-completing victory over the Giants, Byrd now has 15 home runs and 49 RBI, making him the team leader in both categories.  In addition, Byrd's 15 homers are tied for sixth-most in the N.L. and his 49 RBI are also the sixth-highest total in the Senior Circuit.

The only National League hitters with more home runs and runs batted in than Byrd are Carlos Gonzalez (24 HR, 63 RBI), Domonic Brown (23 HR, 64 RBI), Carlos Beltran (19 HR, 52 RBI) and Jay Bruce (18 HR, 62 RBI).  Justin Upton's 16 homers are one more than Byrd's total, but Upton only has 44 RBI - five less than Byrd.  Similarly, Michael Cuddyer's 52 RBI are three more than Byrd's output, but Cuddyer is tied with Byrd with his 15 homers.

In case you didn't know, Gonzalez, Brown, Beltran and Cuddyer are all going to be at Citi Field on Tuesday as members of the National League All-Star team.  Byrd, who plays half his games at Citi Field, will not be joining them.  But it's not as if he hasn't earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as those fine players.

Marlon Byrd's most productive season in the majors occurred in 2009, when he swatted 20 homers and drove in 89 runs for the Texas Rangers.  Naturally, it was in that campaign that Byrd achieved a career high in RBI before the All-Star Break, with 44.  The following year, as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Byrd was selected to his only All-Star team.  At the break, he was hitting .317 with 27 doubles, nine homers and 40 RBI.  The nine homers were a career-best for Byrd at the midsummer hiatus.

Those career highs in homers (9) and RBI (44) by the break have been wiped out, courtesy of Byrd's unexpected first-half performance for the Mets in 2013.  And Byrd reached his new highs in homers (15) and RBI (49) in fewer at-bats (265) than he needed to achieve his previous career highs in those marks (287 AB in 2009, 331 AB in 2010).

As seen in the chart below, which details Marlon Byrd's first-half performances since his first full season in the majors in 2003, Byrd had never been much of a run producer in the season's first half.  His 2009 and 2010 campaigns were the only ones in which he hit more than five homers and drove in more than 25 runs.  You can now add the 2013 season to the short list of All-Star caliber first halves for Marlon Byrd.

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	65	198	31	57	14	0	2	18	3	.288	.362	.389	.750
2004	58	214	25	48	7	2	2	18	2	.224	.297	.304	.600
2005	48	144	5	37	6	1	0	16	1	.257	.311	.313	.623
2006	78	197	28	44	8	1	5	18	3	.223	.317	.350	.667
2007	40	143	23	54	8	3	3	25	0	.378	.438	.538	.976
2008	59	175	28	43	9	2	4	15	2	.246	.328	.389	.717
2009	77	287	36	82	28	1	8	44	3	.286	.327	.474	.801
2010	87	331	47	105	27	0	9	40	4	.317	.365	.480	.845
2011	53	205	27	62	9	1	3	13	2	.302	.347	.400	.747
2012	47	143	10	30	2	0	1	9	0	.210	.243	.245	.488
2013	76	265	37	71	14	2	15	49	1	.268	.313	.506	.818
Career Total	688	2302	297	633	132	13	52	265	21	.275	.333	.412	.745

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/10/2013.

Marlon Byrd is not going to the All-Star game this season.  In fact, Byrd wasn't even one of the top 24 vote-getters among National League outfielders.  Players such as Jason Heyward (.221, 7 HR, 21 RBI in 249 AB) and Gregor Blanco (.274, 1 HR, 27 RBI in 263 AB) received more support from the fans than Byrd did.  Even B.J. Upton, who had an Ike Davis-like first half (.179, 8 HR, 20 RBI in 273 AB) got more votes than Byrd.

Byrd might not have the name recognition or track record that Heyward and Upton have in Atlanta.  He also doesn't play for a team that has won two of the last three World Series, a la Gregor Blanco.  But there's no denying that he has put up the best run-producing first-half numbers in his career.  And there's also no denying that he has quietly become one of the best run-producing outfielders in the National League.  But he's also performed well in clutch and late-inning situations.

Going into the ninth inning of their game on June 16, the Mets were down 3-0 to the Cubs and were three outs away from having a 24-40 record.  As many Mets fans know, Kirk Nieuwenhuis' three-run walk-off homer gave the Mets an unlikely victory at Citi Field, but it was Marlon Byrd's homer to start the inning that set the stage for Nieuwenhuis' game-ending heroics.  Byrd's blast was the catalyst for the Mets' resurgence over the last month, as the team has gone 16-9 since the morning of June 16.

Byrd's ninth-inning shot on June 16 should come as no surprise to fans who have been Byrd-watching all season.  Of the 29 extra-base hits (14 doubles, 15 homers) collected by Byrd in 2013, more than half of them (eight doubles, seven homers) have taken place in the seventh inning or later.

Photo by Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus

The Mets are 10-4 when Byrd hits a home run and they are 18-12 when he drives in a run (10-4 when he drives in more than one run).  That means the Mets are 14 games under .500 when Byrd doesn't produce a homer or RBI.

Marlon Byrd may have been overlooked as an All-Star, but he has certainly not been overlooked by his teammates, his manager and by those who have a vested rooting interest in the team.  His teammates know how instrumental he has been to their recent success.  His manager can't take him out of the lineup (Byrd has played in each of the last 40 games).  And his fans go crazy on Twitter after every big hit or RBI ("Byrd is the word", "There goes another Byrd dropping in the outfield seats", etcetera).

Byrd is most definitely the word.  And those words are part of wonderful narrative for a career that looked dead after the 2012 season.  Byrd may not be an All-Star this year, but he's certainly been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in 2013.  Word.