Marlon Byrd: The Almost All-Star

Photo by Eric Risberg/AP

To say Marlon Byrd has resuscitated his career in New York would be a gross understatement.  Byrd was supposed to be a small piece in a puzzling outfield situation.  But instead, he has become one of the top run-producing outfielders in the National League.

After a grand slam on Tuesday and a two-run homer in yesterday's sweep-completing victory over the Giants, Byrd now has 15 home runs and 49 RBI, making him the team leader in both categories.  In addition, Byrd's 15 homers are tied for sixth-most in the N.L. and his 49 RBI are also the sixth-highest total in the Senior Circuit.

The only National League hitters with more home runs and runs batted in than Byrd are Carlos Gonzalez (24 HR, 63 RBI), Domonic Brown (23 HR, 64 RBI), Carlos Beltran (19 HR, 52 RBI) and Jay Bruce (18 HR, 62 RBI).  Justin Upton's 16 homers are one more than Byrd's total, but Upton only has 44 RBI - five less than Byrd.  Similarly, Michael Cuddyer's 52 RBI are three more than Byrd's output, but Cuddyer is tied with Byrd with his 15 homers.

In case you didn't know, Gonzalez, Brown, Beltran and Cuddyer are all going to be at Citi Field on Tuesday as members of the National League All-Star team.  Byrd, who plays half his games at Citi Field, will not be joining them.  But it's not as if he hasn't earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as those fine players.

Marlon Byrd's most productive season in the majors occurred in 2009, when he swatted 20 homers and drove in 89 runs for the Texas Rangers.  Naturally, it was in that campaign that Byrd achieved a career high in RBI before the All-Star Break, with 44.  The following year, as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Byrd was selected to his only All-Star team.  At the break, he was hitting .317 with 27 doubles, nine homers and 40 RBI.  The nine homers were a career-best for Byrd at the midsummer hiatus.

Those career highs in homers (9) and RBI (44) by the break have been wiped out, courtesy of Byrd's unexpected first-half performance for the Mets in 2013.  And Byrd reached his new highs in homers (15) and RBI (49) in fewer at-bats (265) than he needed to achieve his previous career highs in those marks (287 AB in 2009, 331 AB in 2010).

As seen in the chart below, which details Marlon Byrd's first-half performances since his first full season in the majors in 2003, Byrd had never been much of a run producer in the season's first half.  His 2009 and 2010 campaigns were the only ones in which he hit more than five homers and drove in more than 25 runs.  You can now add the 2013 season to the short list of All-Star caliber first halves for Marlon Byrd.

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	65	198	31	57	14	0	2	18	3	.288	.362	.389	.750
2004	58	214	25	48	7	2	2	18	2	.224	.297	.304	.600
2005	48	144	5	37	6	1	0	16	1	.257	.311	.313	.623
2006	78	197	28	44	8	1	5	18	3	.223	.317	.350	.667
2007	40	143	23	54	8	3	3	25	0	.378	.438	.538	.976
2008	59	175	28	43	9	2	4	15	2	.246	.328	.389	.717
2009	77	287	36	82	28	1	8	44	3	.286	.327	.474	.801
2010	87	331	47	105	27	0	9	40	4	.317	.365	.480	.845
2011	53	205	27	62	9	1	3	13	2	.302	.347	.400	.747
2012	47	143	10	30	2	0	1	9	0	.210	.243	.245	.488
2013	76	265	37	71	14	2	15	49	1	.268	.313	.506	.818
Career Total	688	2302	297	633	132	13	52	265	21	.275	.333	.412	.745

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/10/2013.

Marlon Byrd is not going to the All-Star game this season.  In fact, Byrd wasn't even one of the top 24 vote-getters among National League outfielders.  Players such as Jason Heyward (.221, 7 HR, 21 RBI in 249 AB) and Gregor Blanco (.274, 1 HR, 27 RBI in 263 AB) received more support from the fans than Byrd did.  Even B.J. Upton, who had an Ike Davis-like first half (.179, 8 HR, 20 RBI in 273 AB) got more votes than Byrd.

Byrd might not have the name recognition or track record that Heyward and Upton have in Atlanta.  He also doesn't play for a team that has won two of the last three World Series, a la Gregor Blanco.  But there's no denying that he has put up the best run-producing first-half numbers in his career.  And there's also no denying that he has quietly become one of the best run-producing outfielders in the National League.  But he's also performed well in clutch and late-inning situations.

Going into the ninth inning of their game on June 16, the Mets were down 3-0 to the Cubs and were three outs away from having a 24-40 record.  As many Mets fans know, Kirk Nieuwenhuis' three-run walk-off homer gave the Mets an unlikely victory at Citi Field, but it was Marlon Byrd's homer to start the inning that set the stage for Nieuwenhuis' game-ending heroics.  Byrd's blast was the catalyst for the Mets' resurgence over the last month, as the team has gone 16-9 since the morning of June 16.

Byrd's ninth-inning shot on June 16 should come as no surprise to fans who have been Byrd-watching all season.  Of the 29 extra-base hits (14 doubles, 15 homers) collected by Byrd in 2013, more than half of them (eight doubles, seven homers) have taken place in the seventh inning or later.

Photo by Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus

The Mets are 10-4 when Byrd hits a home run and they are 18-12 when he drives in a run (10-4 when he drives in more than one run).  That means the Mets are 14 games under .500 when Byrd doesn't produce a homer or RBI.

Marlon Byrd may have been overlooked as an All-Star, but he has certainly not been overlooked by his teammates, his manager and by those who have a vested rooting interest in the team.  His teammates know how instrumental he has been to their recent success.  His manager can't take him out of the lineup (Byrd has played in each of the last 40 games).  And his fans go crazy on Twitter after every big hit or RBI ("Byrd is the word", "There goes another Byrd dropping in the outfield seats", etcetera).

Byrd is most definitely the word.  And those words are part of wonderful narrative for a career that looked dead after the 2012 season.  Byrd may not be an All-Star this year, but he's certainly been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in 2013.  Word.

B.J. Upton's Offensive Numbers Remind Me Of...

B.J. Upton's bubble will never burst after signing a lucrative deal with the Braves.

The Atlanta Braves made quite a splash on Wednesday, signing former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million.  The 28-year-old is coming off a year in which he missed a 30/30 campaign by two homers (28 HR, 31 SB), but only hit .246 and reached base at a paltry .298 clip.

Upton is now the highest-paid Brave on a team that features veteran players like Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and Tim Hudson.  But let's look at his numbers since his breakout year in 2007, a year in which he hit .300 with 24 HR and 82 RBI.

In 2008, Upton only hit nine homers, but stole a career-high 44 bases.  He followed that up with a Beltran-like post-season, hitting seven homers and stealing six bases in 16 games for the American League champion Rays.  He also averaged exactly one run scored and one RBI per playoff game (16 runs, 16 RBI).  But over his next four seasons (2009-12), an average Upton season has consisted of a .242 batting average, .316 on-base percentage, 82 runs scored, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 stolen bases and 162 strikeouts.

Let's put those numbers together with the five and six-year averages of three other players who will remain nameless at the moment.

• Upton ('09-'12): .242 BA, .316 OBP, 82 runs, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 SB, 162 K
• Player #1 ('90-'95): .273 BA, .348 OBP, 95 runs, 95 RBI, 27 doubles, 29 HR, 30 SB, 103 K
• Player #2 ('99-'04): .252 BA, .347 OBP, 87 runs, 81 RBI, 30 doubles, 23 HR, 28 SB, 148 K
• Player #3 ('87-'91): .258 BA, .347 OBP, 96 runs, 95 RBI, 31 doubles, 31 HR, 32 SB, 113 K

Upton leads all three anonymous players in stolen bases and doubles, but not by much.  However, he has a lower batting average, lower on-base percentage, has scored fewer runs, driven in fewer runs, hit fewer homers and has struck out more than all three players.  In some cases, he trails the other players by quite a bit.

If Upton will be averaging a little over $15 million per season for the duration of his five-year contract with the Braves, then how much would Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson make in this era?  (And yes, those are the identities of the formerly unnamed players listed above.)

HoJo can't believe the amount of money B.J. Upton will be making with Atlanta.

Here are four more things you may not have known about Upton.  He's never been an All-Star, he's never won a Gold Glove, he's never earned a Silver Slugger Award and he's never received an MVP vote.  Meanwhile, Gant, Cameron and Johnson combined to make five All-Star teams, win three Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger Awards, while earning MVP votes in nine separate seasons.

Despite their impressive statistics and postseason accolades, neither player was considered the best player on his team nor was any of them the highest paid.  But Upton - who has a bunch of zeroes next to his All-Star selections, Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger Awards and MVP votes - can now brag about some more zeroes, namely the ones on his contract that make him the highest paid member of the Atlanta Braves.

Maybe B.J. Upton will play well in Atlanta.  But is he truly deserving of the $75-plus million he'll be receiving until he's 33, especially for a player who's never been the best at anything he does, and in various offensive categories, is well below average?

Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson are probably shaking their heads right now knowing how much they could have earned had they been in their prime in 2012.  B.J. Upton is just shaking his checkbook.

No One Can Have Just One (No-Hitter)

R.A. Dickey had the most amazing, most tremendous, most [insert your favorite superlative here] start of his career last night, coming within two David Wright muffs of pitching the first perfect game in Mets history.  His performance came less than two weeks after Johan Santana tossed the first no-hitter in club annals and on the same night that Matt Cain pitched the first perfect game in San Francisco Giants history.

Before Wright's error allowed Elliot Johnson to reach base safely in the ninth inning (which led to the only run scored off Dickey in the game, ending his franchise-record 32⅔ inning scoreless streak), the only base runner allowed by the Mets' knuckler was a first-inning infield hit off the bat of B.J. Upton.  Upton hit a slow roller near the third base line that Wright tried to field with his bare hand.  The ball tickled Wright's fingers before dropping to the artificial turf, allowing Upton to reach base on what was credited as a base hit.  It became the only hit allowed by Dickey in the game and gave him credit for pitching the 36th one-hitter in franchise history.

But stop the presses!  There's a new story to report!

Apparently, Terry Collins thinks that there's a chance an appeal could reverse the call on Upton's infield single to an error by Wright, allowing Dickey to be credited with the team's second no-hitter of the month.  Collins goes on to say,

"We said in the ninth inning that we've got to appeal that play.  We're probably not going to win it, but ... what the heck?  What do you got to lose except to have somebody say no?  You've just got to give him his due.  He deserves it." 

It's great that Collins is sticking up for his pitcher.  But in all honesty, the Mets should have just settled for a one-hitter without trying to get an after-the-fact no-hitter for Dickey.  Besides, earlier this month, when Santana pitched his no-hitter, a call by third base umpire Adrian Johnson took a base hit away from Carlos Beltran.  So this pretty much evens it out.  Santana got a no-hitter in a game that should have been a one-hitter and Dickey gets a one-hitter in a game that could have been a no-hitter.

Notice how I said that Santana "should" have had a one-hitter while I said Dickey "could" have had a no-hitter.  It was an umpire's error that allowed Santana to keep his no-hitter intact.  But it was David Wright's non-error in the first inning that rightfully gave the Rays their first and only hit of the night.  And it should remain an error after the appeal is reviewed.

I understand Terry Collins wanting to reward his pitcher for a tremendous pitching performance, a performance that might have been more dominant (career-high 12 Ks, no walks) than Santana's, as Johan allowed five Cardinals to reach base via the base on balls.  But trying to get him a no-hitter after the fact is taking it a little too far.  It's not going to happen and it should never have come to this.

Collins should see it for what it is and what will remain in the record books.  Dickey pitched a one-hitter, retired 22 batters in a row from the first to the ninth innings, struck out a career-high 12 batters and set the Mets' all-time record for consecutive scoreless innings, supplanting Jerry Koosman in the team's record book by one inning.  It was a fantastic pitching performance by R.A. Dickey.  It was not a no-hitter.

The Mets already got a no-hitter that shouldn't have been.  They shouldn't get greedy and try for a second.  I guess it's true that no one can have just one.