Has Bruce Bochy Punched His Ticket To The Hall of Fame?

"The Giants win the pennant" are words Bruce Bochy has heard quite often.  (Paul Kitagaki/Sacramento Bee)

On Thursday, the San Francisco Giants defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series to clinch their third pennant in five seasons.  In doing so, the Giants became the first National League team since the Atlanta Braves of the mid-to-late 1990s to make it to the World Series three times in a five-year span.  (Atlanta won pennants in 1995, 1996 and 1999.)

Bruce Bochy has managed each of the Giants’ three pennant-winning teams and has been the team’s skipper since 2007.  His eight seasons at the helm in San Francisco came on the heels of a 12-year run as manager of the San Diego Padres from 1995 to 2006.  In those dozen campaigns, Bochy led the Padres to 951 victories, the most of any manager in San Diego's 46 years in the National League.  During Bochy’s tenure in San Diego, the Padres won four division titles and the 1998 National League pennant.  The other 15 managers in Padres’ history have combined to lead the team to one postseason appearance in 34 seasons (Dick Williams in 1984).

All told, Bochy has won 1,618 regular season games in two decades as a manager in the big leagues, leading his teams to seven postseason appearances, six division titles, four pennants and two World Series championships.  So the question must be asked.  If Bruce Bochy retired today, is he a Hall of Famer?  Why don't we let his numbers answer the question?

• Bochy is one of 24 men to manage in the majors for at least 20 seasons.  Seventeen of the other 23 are in the Hall of Fame.

• Bochy’s total of 1,618 victories has been surpassed by just 17 managers.  Twelve of those managers are in the Hall of Fame.  (By the end of the 2015 season, Bochy should pass two of those 17 managers, as he is only one win behind Ralph Houk and 53 victories behind Dusty Baker, who is not managing a big league team at the moment.)

• Bochy has led his teams to the postseason seven times, making him one of 15 managers to accomplish that feat.  Ten of the other 14 are in the Hall of Fame.  One of the four who isn’t in the Hall is Mike Scioscia, who is still an active manager with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

As impressive as the above accomplishments are, it doesn’t guarantee Hall of Fame enshrinement.  It just makes it more likely that Bochy will someday get the call from the Hall.

However, pennants and World Series championships are what managers are most remembered for, and Bochy has had his share of those as well.  If Bochy’s longevity, regular season win total and postseason appearances have improved his chances of making it to Cooperstown, then his accomplishments in October have almost certainly cemented his enshrinement.  Take a look at the chart below and consider the following two tidbits.

Rk	Mgr	Yrs	W	L	W-L%	W (post)	L (post)	W-L% (post)	Plyof App	WSwon	PennWon ▾
1	John McGraw HOF	33	2763	1948	.586	26	28	.481	9	3	10
2	Casey Stengel HOF	25	1905	1842	.508	37	26	.587	10	7	10
3	Connie Mack HOF	53	3731	3948	.486	24	19	.558	8	5	9
4	Joe McCarthy HOF	24	2125	1333	.615	26	13	.667	9	7	9
5	Walter Alston HOF	23	2040	1613	.558	23	21	.523	7	4	7
6	Miller Huggins HOF	17	1413	1134	.555	18	15	.545	6	3	6
7	Tony La Russa HOF	33	2728	2365	.536	70	58	.547	14	3	6
8	Joe Torre HOF	29	2326	1997	.538	84	58	.592	15	4	6
9	Harry Wright HOF	23	1225	885	.581	0	0		0	0	6
10	Sparky Anderson HOF	26	2194	1834	.545	34	21	.618	7	3	5
11	Cap Anson HOF	21	1295	947	.578	0	0		0	0	5
12	Bobby Cox HOF	29	2504	2001	.556	67	69	.493	16	1	5
13	Ned Hanlon HOF	19	1313	1164	.530	0	0		0	0	5
14	Frank Selee HOF	16	1284	862	.598	0	0		0	0	5
15	Frank Chance HOF	11	946	648	.593	11	9	.550	4	2	4
16	Fred Clarke HOF	19	1602	1181	.576	7	8	.467	2	1	4
17	Charlie Comiskey HOF	12	840	541	.608	0	0		0	1	4
18	Tom Lasorda HOF	21	1599	1439	.526	31	30	.508	7	2	4
19	Bill McKechnie HOF	25	1896	1723	.524	8	14	.364	4	2	4
20	Billy Southworth HOF	13	1044	704	.597	11	11	.500	4	2	4
21	Earl Weaver HOF	17	1480	1060	.583	26	20	.565	6	1	4
22	Dick Williams HOF	21	1571	1451	.520	21	23	.477	5	2	4
23	Bruce Bochy	20	1618	1604	.502	38	27	.585	7	2	4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/17/2014.

Note:  Harry Wright, Cap Anson, Ned Hanlon, Frank Selee and Charlie Comiskey all won pennants before the advent of the modern World Series in 1903.  Comiskey's lone "World Series" victory came in 1886 in the American Association.

• Prior to the 2014 season, a total of 22 managers guided their teams to four of more league pennants.  Did you happen to notice the "HOF" next to their names?  That means all 22 of those managers are in the Hall of Fame.  By earning a World Series berth against the Royals, Bochy has just become the 23^rd manager to win four pennants, winning one in San Diego and three in San Francisco.

• Of the 22 managers who won four or more pennants, only nine of them won at least three World Series titles.  All nine are in the Hall of Fame.  With four wins against Kansas City in this year’s Fall Classic, Bochy will become the tenth manager to win three championships, doing so in just a five-year span with the Giants.

With 20 years of managerial experience, a ton of victories and more than a handful of trips to the playoffs, Bruce Bochy is certainly a viable candidate for the Hall of Fame.  But now that he’s won four pennants and is within a few wins of completing his trifecta of titles, enshrinement in Cooperstown is more than just likely.  It’s pretty much a certainty.

Bruce Bochy’s run as a big league manager isn’t quite over yet, but when he does decide to call it a career, he may as well pack his bags for Cooperstown.  The Hall of Fame should be the last stop in Bochy’s amazing post-playing career.
 

The Mets Foreshadowed a Potential World Series Matchup

Back in June, the Mets played a four-game series at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, losing three out of the four affairs.  But they did manage to win one game, taking the June 28 day game by the final score of 5-3.

The Mets failed to get swept by winning once in Pittsburgh, but they may have succeeded in something else.  They may have inadvertently predicted which teams were going to play each other in the World Series.

Let's go Royal Giants!  Let's go Royal Giants! (Getty Images)

Wearing throwback uniforms to commemorate Brooklyn's Negro League team from the 1920s, the Mets proudly displayed the team's name on their chests.  For one day, players like Eric Young, Jr., Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda were members of the Brooklyn Royal Giants, honoring their Negro League counterparts with a victory.

Four months later, the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants are leading their respective league championship series, with Kansas City two wins away from its first pennant in 29 years and San Francisco three victories shy of its third World Series appearance in five seasons.

The Mets will need some breakout seasons from their young players and a return to form for several of their veterans in order to reach a Fall Classic of their own.  Until they do, it appears as if last June's game against the Pirates will be as close as they will come to wearing a jersey that displays the team name of a potential World Series participant.

If only it were as easy to predict the Mets making it to the World Series next year as it was to foreshadow this year's possible World Series teams.
 

This Is What Blue and Orange Playoff Baseball Is Like

For over half a century, the Mets' traditional colors have been blue and orange.  For the past eight seasons, the Mets have not played a postseason game.  For the past six seasons, Citi Field has looked more green (as in the color of empty seats) than it has blue and orange (as in the color of Mets fans hootin' and hollerin' at their favorite team).

For those of you who don't remember how Amazin' it sounded whenever the Mets played deep into October...

For those of you who want to know what a sea of 42,000+ screaming fans clad in blue and orange would look like...

Heck, for those of you who just aren't into empty seats...

This is what Citi Field would look like when (if?) the Mets crash the postseason party.

Kudos to the Royals, Orioles and their fans for putting on a wonderful show during the month of October, a show that has still not ended (blame those pesky Royals for not knowing how to win a game in regulation).  Both fan bases have upped their game during the postseason and have made it a joy for non-Royals and non-Orioles fans to watch each team's push to win their first pennants in approximately three decades.

If only the Mets front office had their TVs tuned to these games, they'd know how beautiful a scene like the ones depicted above could be at Citi Field.  But alas, the front office isn't fond of a blue-and-orange October in Flushing.  They like all things green, as in the money they'd rather keep than spend on quality ballplayers who could lead them on a deep October run.  So until there's a drastic change from the way things have been done in the past, don't expect a sea of blue and orange at Citi Field anytime soon.

Kansas City's payroll in 2014 was $92,185,521, which is almost 150% more than the $38,176,000 the team doled out to players in 2011.  Baltimore's 2014 contractual obligations totaled $107,466,653, the first time in the 21st century the team passed the nine-figure mark in payroll.  Both teams play in small markets.  The Mets do not.  But despite playing in a market that dwarfs that of the Royals and Orioles, New York's 2014 payroll was lower than both Baltimore and Kansas City, as Mets players earned $84,951,365 this past season.

It's a blue October in Kansas City.  It's an orange month in Baltimore.  It's neither color at Citi Field.  Green is the new blue and orange in Flushing, because that's the only color you'll see in the stands in October there.  The empty green seats are far less exciting than the colors at Kauffman Stadium and Camden Yards.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2014 Not-So-Biased LCS Picks

How's it going, everyone?  This is Joey Beartran, and I'm happy to say that I correctly predicted three of the four division series winners.  The only things that kept me from being a perfect four-for-four were Clayton Kershaw allowing the Cardinals to do a couple of seventh inning conga lines around the bases and this little Puig-gy going wee-wee-wee all the way back to the bench.

But hey, I batted .750 in the division series round, which would probably make me too expensive to sign a contract with the Mets.

Players who weren't too expensive for their teams were members of the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals - two small market teams who spent wisely and are now just four wins from their first World Series appearance since Twisted Sister couldn't take it anymore.  (That's 1983 and 1985, for all you kids out there.)

As rare as it's been for Baltimore and Kansas City to play deep into October, it's become commonplace for the National League pennant chasers in St. Louis and San Francisco.  The last time a team other than the Cardinals or Giants represented the Senior Circuit in the Fall Classic was 2009, when the Phillies appeared in their final World Series before becoming a bunch of overpaid curmudgeons.

Who will I pick to square off in this year's Fall Classic?  Let's find out!


American League Championship Series


Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

As difficult as it may be to predict this series, there is one thing that I know for sure about it.  Neither team is going to escape with a sweep, as both the Royals and O's did in the division series.  That being said, both teams are going to win at least three games, just as they did against the Angels and Tigers.  So clearly, I'm saying this series will go the distance.  But who has the edge in Game 7?

The seventh game would be played at Camden Yards, where the Orioles won 50 games during the regular season.  But Kansas City's 47 road victories were the most of any team in the American League.  So let's toss that one aside.

What about those homers everyone keeps talking about?  Baltimore's 211 home runs led the major leagues, while Kansas City's total of 95 was the fewest.  Of course, the Royals hit some pretty big home runs in extra innings against the Angels, proving that what happened in the regular season didn't necessarily stay in the regular season.  So what are we going to use to determine who wins that seventh game?  The answer is something many talented prognosticators such as myself have used to determine the future.  We play checkers.

My Studious Metsimus colleague (who picked the Royals, by the way) cheated, trying to take advantage of the fact that I was sitting in an uncomfortable chair by moving his pieces twice while I was fidgeting in my seat.  Therefore, I'm saying that the Orioles are going to win a decisive Game 7.  It's not because I feel the Orioles' starting pitcher in the seventh game is going to pitch beautifully.  Nor is it because Nelson Cruz is going to continue to be as dominant as the Nationals were against the Mets.  (But just like the Mets, the Nats will be watching this series on TV - ha ha!)

The reason why I'm picking Baltimore is because no one takes advantage of Joey Beartran.  The Orioles will put the "O" in October and advance to the World Series.

Prediction:  Orioles in 7.


National League Championship Series


San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals

So tell me, baseball fans.  Aren't you tired of seeing the Giants and Cardinals play for a spot in the Fall Classic?  San Francisco and St. Louis have alternated World Series appearances since 2010, with the Giants playing for the title in the even-numbered years and the Cards representing the National League in odd-numbered years.  Two years ago, San Francisco defeated St. Louis in the NLCS to advance to the Fall Classic.  Revenge may be on the minds of the Redbirds, but that means nothing in this series.  In fact, St. Louis could have a tough time just winning one game.

For one thing, the Cards batted just .238 in the division series against the Dodgers and had a paltry .294 on-base percentage in the four games versus Los Angeles.  So how did they get by Don Mattingly's squad?  Seven of their 30 hits left the park, including three by Matt Carpenter - the same Matt Carpenter who has just 25 regular season home runs in 1,785 lifetime plate appearances.  The Cardinals got some once-in-a-lifetime performances in the division series.  That's going to be hard to replicate in the league championship series.

In the four games against the Dodgers, St. Louis had a 3.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  Consider this.  In the other division series, Washington posted a 1.23 ERA and 1.04 WHIP versus the Giants.  San Francisco still won the series in four games.  Imagine what they could do against a team that's three times more likely to give up a run and allows nearly 50% more base runners.

St. Louis scored 18 runs in the four-game division series.  However, 15 of those runs scored in the seventh inning or later, with nine of the 15 late-inning tallies coming against Clayton Kershaw.  Meanwhile, San Francisco allowed eight runs to Washington in their four-game series, or one fewer run than Kershaw allowed in both of his seventh innings.  The Giants pitchers (all of them - starters and relievers) are ready for any hitter who dares to try to hit out of his mind in this series.

Finally, there's the Bruce Bochy factor.  The man is one of the most underrated managers of this or any other era.  Did you know that Bochy won four division titles as manager of the Padres?  He did that for a San Diego team has only won one other division title in its history.  And of course, Bochy was the manager for the only two Giants' World Series victories since the team moved to San Francisco in 1958.  In 20 seasons as a manager in the big leagues, Bochy has made the playoffs seven times, winning six division titles, three pennants and two championships.  With four wins over St. Louis, he will have guided his teams to four pennants.  To put that into perspective, there have been 22 managers who have won four pennants.  All of them are in the Hall of Fame.  Don't think the Giants players aren't aware of that.

Prediction:  Giants in 5.

Mr. Alderson, Don't Move In This Wall

"General Manager Alderson, if you seek pennants, if you seek prosperity for the New York Mets and their fans, if you seek a winning organization, come here to this screen.  Mr. Alderson, look at this screen.  Mr. Alderson, don't move in this wall!"

--what Ronald Reagan might have said had he been alive in 2014 and a Mets fan.

Photo by Robert Sabo/NY Daily News

Sandy Alderson likes home runs.  Always has.  Always will.  And now he's considering moving in the Citi Field outfield fences for the second time during his tenure as Mets general manager in search of the elusive home run for his hitters.  At first glance, it would seem to make sense, as the Mets have finished in the bottom half of the league in home runs since the team moved to Citi Field in 2009.

Also, take a look at the teams who made the playoffs in the National League in recent years.  In 2014, four of the top seven home-run hitting teams made the playoffs, while in 2013, three of the top four home-run launching squads advanced to the postseason.  Alderson knows that pitching wins championships, but he also knows that home runs puts fannies (as well as baseballs) in the seats.  The Mets already have good pitching.  They just need some big boppers to complement them.  There's only one problem with moving in the right field fence, as Alderson has suggested the Mets will do.  It could actually help opposing hitters more than it could help the Mets.

In a post-game press conference after the Mets finished out the season last week, Alderson discussed altering the dimensions of Citi Field.

"We made changes a couple of years ago and I think those have been received well", Alderson said.  "And anything we do will probably be limited to the center, right-center areas. But I think it’ll be good for the game, good for the fans, and I’m sure that one or two of our players will benefit as well.”

One or two of our players, he says?  Received well, he says?  Well, allow me to retort.

The Mets have eight everyday players on the team.  Helping one or two of them is not going to produce the ten or twelve extra wins the team probably needs to make the playoffs.  In fact, something Alderson neglected to mention is how many players on opposing teams this could benefit.  And judging by the numbers posted by the opposition since the last time the movers were called in to adjust the outfield fences, I'm sure these are the players who Alderson claims "received well" those altered dimensions.

Let's take a look at the home run numbers posted by the Mets at Citi Field over the last five seasons (we are discounting the 2009 team because just about everyone got hurt on that squad).  Let's also show how opponents fared at Citi Field over the same time period.  Look closely at the numbers posted after the 2011 season, when the fences were moved in for the first time.

Year	Mets’ HR (Citi Field)	Mets’ HR (Road)	Opponents’ HR (Citi Field)	Opponents’ HR (Road)
2010	63	65	47	88
2011	50	58	58	87
2012	67	72	88	73
2013	59	71	90	62
2014	59	66	71	70

In the two years prior to the walls being moved in, opponents struggled as much as the Mets did to hit home runs at Citi Field.  But the Mets actually hit eight more home runs at Citi Field in 2010 and 2011 than their opponents did.  New York rounded the bases 113 times, while opposing hitters hit just 105 long balls.  But since the outfield dimensions were adjusted prior to the 2012 season, opponents have taken full advantage while the Mets have not.

Over the last three seasons, the Mets have managed to hit 185 homers at Citi Field, while their opponents have feasted, blasting 249 bombs.  New York averaged 56.5 homers per season in each of the last two years prior to the realignment of the fences.  The team has averaged just five extra homers per season since the walls were moved in.  Meanwhile, the opponents who averaged 52.5 homers a year under the old configurations are now averaging 83 homers per season, or about 30 extra homers per campaign.

Let's put it this way.  If I noticed that over the past three years, players wearing their road jerseys have been six times more likely to hit a home run at Citi Field than players wearing their home duds, I'd probably be less inclined to move in the fences once again, especially since the explosion in opposing players' home runs came immediately after the last time the walls were brought closer to home plate.

Each of the last five seasons, regardless of the positioning of the outfield fences, the Mets have hit more home runs on the road than they have at Citi Field.  Meanwhile, opposing players who had difficulty hitting home runs at Citi Field prior to 2012 have welcomed trips to their new home run haven in Flushing.

The Mets don't have the money to pay a $20-million-a-year slugger to come play for the team.  They should also save their dough on wall-moving expenses.  It didn't help the team three years ago, so why should we expect it to help "one or two of our players" now?

Mr. Alderson, please don't move in the outfield walls next year.  By inflating the power numbers of opposing players, all you're doing is deflating the hopes and dreams of Mets fans who just want a taste of October baseball at Citi Field.  Is that too much to ask?