Mr. Alderson, Don't Move In This Wall

"General Manager Alderson, if you seek pennants, if you seek prosperity for the New York Mets and their fans, if you seek a winning organization, come here to this screen.  Mr. Alderson, look at this screen.  Mr. Alderson, don't move in this wall!"

--what Ronald Reagan might have said had he been alive in 2014 and a Mets fan.

Photo by Robert Sabo/NY Daily News

Sandy Alderson likes home runs.  Always has.  Always will.  And now he's considering moving in the Citi Field outfield fences for the second time during his tenure as Mets general manager in search of the elusive home run for his hitters.  At first glance, it would seem to make sense, as the Mets have finished in the bottom half of the league in home runs since the team moved to Citi Field in 2009.

Also, take a look at the teams who made the playoffs in the National League in recent years.  In 2014, four of the top seven home-run hitting teams made the playoffs, while in 2013, three of the top four home-run launching squads advanced to the postseason.  Alderson knows that pitching wins championships, but he also knows that home runs puts fannies (as well as baseballs) in the seats.  The Mets already have good pitching.  They just need some big boppers to complement them.  There's only one problem with moving in the right field fence, as Alderson has suggested the Mets will do.  It could actually help opposing hitters more than it could help the Mets.

In a post-game press conference after the Mets finished out the season last week, Alderson discussed altering the dimensions of Citi Field.

"We made changes a couple of years ago and I think those have been received well", Alderson said.  "And anything we do will probably be limited to the center, right-center areas. But I think it’ll be good for the game, good for the fans, and I’m sure that one or two of our players will benefit as well.”

One or two of our players, he says?  Received well, he says?  Well, allow me to retort.

The Mets have eight everyday players on the team.  Helping one or two of them is not going to produce the ten or twelve extra wins the team probably needs to make the playoffs.  In fact, something Alderson neglected to mention is how many players on opposing teams this could benefit.  And judging by the numbers posted by the opposition since the last time the movers were called in to adjust the outfield fences, I'm sure these are the players who Alderson claims "received well" those altered dimensions.

Let's take a look at the home run numbers posted by the Mets at Citi Field over the last five seasons (we are discounting the 2009 team because just about everyone got hurt on that squad).  Let's also show how opponents fared at Citi Field over the same time period.  Look closely at the numbers posted after the 2011 season, when the fences were moved in for the first time.

Year	Mets’ HR (Citi Field)	Mets’ HR (Road)	Opponents’ HR (Citi Field)	Opponents’ HR (Road)
2010	63	65	47	88
2011	50	58	58	87
2012	67	72	88	73
2013	59	71	90	62
2014	59	66	71	70

In the two years prior to the walls being moved in, opponents struggled as much as the Mets did to hit home runs at Citi Field.  But the Mets actually hit eight more home runs at Citi Field in 2010 and 2011 than their opponents did.  New York rounded the bases 113 times, while opposing hitters hit just 105 long balls.  But since the outfield dimensions were adjusted prior to the 2012 season, opponents have taken full advantage while the Mets have not.

Over the last three seasons, the Mets have managed to hit 185 homers at Citi Field, while their opponents have feasted, blasting 249 bombs.  New York averaged 56.5 homers per season in each of the last two years prior to the realignment of the fences.  The team has averaged just five extra homers per season since the walls were moved in.  Meanwhile, the opponents who averaged 52.5 homers a year under the old configurations are now averaging 83 homers per season, or about 30 extra homers per campaign.

Let's put it this way.  If I noticed that over the past three years, players wearing their road jerseys have been six times more likely to hit a home run at Citi Field than players wearing their home duds, I'd probably be less inclined to move in the fences once again, especially since the explosion in opposing players' home runs came immediately after the last time the walls were brought closer to home plate.

Each of the last five seasons, regardless of the positioning of the outfield fences, the Mets have hit more home runs on the road than they have at Citi Field.  Meanwhile, opposing players who had difficulty hitting home runs at Citi Field prior to 2012 have welcomed trips to their new home run haven in Flushing.

The Mets don't have the money to pay a $20-million-a-year slugger to come play for the team.  They should also save their dough on wall-moving expenses.  It didn't help the team three years ago, so why should we expect it to help "one or two of our players" now?

Mr. Alderson, please don't move in the outfield walls next year.  By inflating the power numbers of opposing players, all you're doing is deflating the hopes and dreams of Mets fans who just want a taste of October baseball at Citi Field.  Is that too much to ask?

Home Field Disadvantage

You don't have to be a numbers-obsessed Mets fan like me to realize that the team has been playing pretty badly at Citi Field over the past few years.  But sometimes the numbers help to advance and enhance the narrative.

For example, since the beginning of the 2011 campaign, the Mets have gone 105-145 in games played at Citi Field.  Meanwhile, over the same time period, the team has posted a winning mark (128-124) on the road.  Should the Mets finish the 2014 season with a losing record at home, it would be the team's fourth consecutive sub-.500 record in their home ballpark.  Not since the Mets posted six straight losing seasons at home from 1977 to 1982 has the team been so futile before its fans.

But as bad as it's been at Citi Field for the Mets over the past three seasons, it looks like it's getting worse before it's getting better.  Please allow me to explain.

Through their first seven home games in 2014, the Mets have been outhit, 70-34.  They have failed to collect more than seven hits in any game at Citi Field, but their opponents haven't had that problem, as they have mustered seven or more hits in EVERY GAME played at Citi Field this season.

The Mets have batted .160 at home this year, while reaching base at a .246 clip.  Never has any team in Mets history posted a lower batting average through its first seven home games.  To put those numbers into perspective, the league batting average is .248.  That's two points higher than the Mets' on-base percentage at home this year.  (And for the record, the average National League team is posting a .313 on-base percentage.)

But there is one thing the Mets do well at home.  They strike out.  A lot.

In seven games at home, the Mets have fanned 69 times in 212 at-bats.  That's practically one strikeout every three at-bats.  And before you say, "Well, their pitchers have a lot to do with that, smarty pants, because they're forced to bat in the National League", allow me to retort.  Mets hurlers have struck out just six times at Citi Field this season.  (First-place Atlanta has played one fewer home game than the Mets, but their pitchers have struck out eight times.)  So it's mainly the everyday players who have been heading back to the dugout soon after taking or swinging through strike three.

Shake Shack might have a tasty burger, but what Mets fans really want to taste at Citi Field are Big Kahuna victories.

Just four short years ago, the Mets believed in home field advantage so much, they used their Citi Field success as part of a marketing campaign.  But that was then and this is now.  For as bad as the Mets have been at home since 2011, they've become even more lethargic in 2014.

The trade of Ike Davis actually removed one of the few players who was hitting well at Citi Field and wasn't striking out.  Davis was 4-for-8 with just one strikeout at home.  The rest of the team has gone 30-for-204 (for a .147 batting average) with 68 strikeouts.  If those numbers look familiar to you (which they shouldn't), that's because they're almost identical to the ones put up by Oliver Perez at the plate in his five seasons with the Mets.  Perez hit .147 with 53 strikeouts in 156 at-bats as a Met.

So tell me, my astute Mets fans.  If it's considered an insult for a Mets pitcher to be compared in any way to Oliver Perez, then what is it considered when a Mets hitter is compared to him?

The Mets used to believe in home field advantage.  But Citi Field has become a home field disadvantage for the team since 2011.  The Mets simply don't hit at home.  And that translates into not winning at home.  Clearly, the only teams that are taking advantage of Citi Field are the ones who call the third base dugout home.
 

We Believed In Home Field Advantage

In 2010, the Mets were entering their second season at Citi Field.  After a brutal 2009 campaign in which they lost 92 games, the team needed something to get fans excited about the team.  That excitement came in a three-month stretch during the first half of the 2010 season, when the Mets were practically unbeatable at home.

Although the Mets were having tremendous difficulty winning on the road, they were 28-12 at home by the fourth of July.  After every home victory, the song "Uprising" by Muse blasted on the Citi Field sound system ("We will be victorious...") and CitiVision flashed its "We Believe In Home Field Advantage" graphic for all the smiling fans in attendance to be proud of.

That was then.  A lot has changed over the past two-plus seasons, especially when it comes to the Mets' performance at home.

Can you guess which home loss this photo is from?  Neither can I.  Too many to choose from.

During the second half of the 2010 campaign, the Mets returned to earth at Citi Field, going 19-22 at home to close out the season.  They followed that up in 2011 with a disappointing 34-47 record in front of the Flushing faithful.  Now, with tonight's 6-2 loss to the Rockies, the Mets have fallen to 28-32 at Citi Field in 2012.

Since Independence Day two years ago, the Mets lost their ability to win at home, going a combined 81-101 at home for a .445 winning percentage.  Even the woeful Houston Astros, who are an abysmal 105 games under .500 in all games since the beginning of the 2010 season (171-276) have been better at home over the same time period (100-124, for a .446 winning percentage).

There was a time when the Mets were a good team.  They played their home games at Shea Stadium then.  But as recently as the spring of 2010, the Mets were still a good team, as long as they were playing their games at home.  Sadly, that is also no longer the case, as the Mets have now lost 17 of their last 22 home games and are 20 games under .500 at Citi Field since the summer of 2010.

We believed in home field advantage.  Now that we don't have it anymore, in what should we believe?