Joey's Soapbox: LCS Picks That Appeal To All New York Sports Fans

Hello, everybody! I'm your sometimes prognosticator and always big masticator, Joey Beartran. Now that we've advanced to the American League and National League Championship Series, it's time for some new predictions.

I didn't do too well when I made my Division Series predictions last week, picking only one winner (San Francisco) correctly out of the four series. However, I'm not disappointed about it. After all, Oliver Perez can't even throw one strike every four pitches, so as long as I'm more effective than El Perez-idente, I know I can continue to be Studious Metsimus' resident baseball psychic.

So why is the title of the blog "LCS Picks That Appeal To All New York Sports Fans"? Read my predictions and you'll see exactly what I mean.

American League Championship Series

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

The Yankees have never lost to the Texas Rangers in the playoffs, defeating them in the ALDS in 1996, 1998 and 1999. Over those three seasons, both teams had explosive offenses, but the Rangers did not have the pitching to contain the Yankees' high-powered bats, finishing the regular season with ERAs of 4.65 in 1996, 4.99 in 1998 and 5.07 in 1999.

This year is another story, as the Rangers finished the regular season with a team ERA of 3.93. It was the first time since 1990 that the Rangers kept their ERA under 4.00, when Bobby Valentine was their manager.

Note: To this day, Valentine remains the Rangers' all-time leader in managerial wins, in addition to his second-place standing on the Mets' all-time ranks.

The previous Ranger teams that were disposed by the Yankees could not compete with their softball league pitching staff. This year's team has a legitimate ace in Cliff Lee, who sports a perfect 6-0 postseason record and a sparkling 1.44 ERA in seven career playoff starts. In addition, he was undefeated in three starts against the Yankees this year, including a complete game victory on June 29, when he was a member of the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Lee isn't the only Ranger starter who pitched well in 2010, as C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) and Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) also excelled during the regular season.

Consider this. If the series goes seven games, the Rangers will get two starts from Cliff Lee and one start against A.J. Burnett. That looks like three victories there. Also, one cannot expect that the tandem of Wilson and Hunter, who combined to go 28-12 this season, will go winless during the series.

The Yankees might have had the Rangers' number in previous postseason meetings, but this time Texas is armed and ready for them. It'll be a hard-fought series, but Cliff Lee in Game 7 (against a Yankee starter NOT named C(onstantly) C(hewing) Sabathia) will be the difference.

Rangers in 7.


National League Championship Series

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies may have the odds-on favorite to win this year's Cy Young Award in Roy Halladay, but the Giants have the pitcher who's won each of the last two Cy Young Awards in Tim "No, I Was Not In Dazed And Confused" Lincecum. Therefore, even a no-hitter by Halladay might not be enough against the Giants, who boast one of the best and most complete pitching staffs in baseball in Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan "I Threw A No-Hitter Before Halladay Did" Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner.

The difference in this series will come down to two things - who scores first and who has the better bullpen.

The Phillies and Giants had the two best records in the major leagues when they scored the first run of the game, with the Phillies going 64-13 and the Giants finishing 63-19 in games where they put up the first run. Since runs may be few and far in between, the team who scores the first run might be the team who scores the only run.

So once the starters come out of the game, it'll be up to the bullpens to keep the runs off the board. That's where the teams differ. The Phillies have Ryan Madson (6-2, 2.55 ERA) and Brad Lidge (27 saves, 2.99 ERA), but none of their other relievers posted an ERA under 3.34, and that ERA was claimed by 99-year-old Jose Contreras, who once chose Jackie Robinson as his idol because "he hit his changeup better than anyone else could".

The Giants, on the other hand, can trot out four excellent relievers. Ramon Ramirez gave up a two-run HR to leading NL MVP candidate Joey Votto on August 25. Those were the only earned runs he gave up as a San Francisco Giant. His 0.67 ERA in 25 appearances led the bullpen, but the three-headed monster of Sergio Romo (2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), Santiago Casilla (1.95 ERA in 52 appearances) and closer Brian Wilson (1.81 ERA and a major league leading 48 saves) aren't too far behind.

The Phillies may have a number of weapons on offense, but the old baseball adage of good pitching defeats good hitting will determine the series. The Phillies have excellent starting pitching, but the Giants have outstanding pitching both in their starting rotation and in their bullpen.

Philadelphia will not become the first National League team since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals to three-peat as pennant winners. They will leave their pennant in San Francisco.

Giants in 6.


So let's get back to why these picks will appeal to all New York sports fans. Clearly, if you're reading this, you're more than likely a Mets fan or a confused person who's wondering how on Earth you got to a site where a bear is making baseball predictions. Let's assume you're the former and not the latter.

No Mets fan is going to want another Doomsday Series in which the despised Phillies play the hated Yankees. Those Mets fans have probably turned off baseball for the season and have now moved to football and hockey. Perhaps the football fans root for the New York Giants. Maybe the hockey fans root for the New York Rangers.

Therefore, for those Mets fans, you can take comfort that this year's World Series will feature your Giants and your Rangers.



Say it with me. Let's Go Giants! Let's Go Rangers!

Maybe this won't be such a bad postseason after all.