Don't Give Arroyo a Blue & Orange Hooded Sweatshirt

The Mets need to add a starting pitcher or two.  That much is certain.  One of the names that keeps popping up as a potential target is Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo has been durable, making at least 32 starts in each of his last nine seasons.  And the Mets certainly need an innings-eater in 2014, especially with Matt Harvey not being able to feed himself any frames next year.  But should the Mets make Arroyo one of their top free agent targets this offseason?  If it were solely up to me, I think the Mets would be shama-lama-ding-dongs if they signed him.  Here's why.

Bronson Arroyo had excellent run support in Cincinnati.  From 2011 to 2013, Arroyo had a 4.19 ERA and allowed 104 home runs.  But he still posted a winning record (35-34) in those three seasons.  During those three seasons, Arroyo had the likes of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce in the starting lineup.  The Mets just added .235 career hitter Chris Young to become one of their top sluggers.  Needless to say, an ERA north of 4.00 won't cut it when you're depending on the Mets' lineup to give you run support.  Just ask Jeremy Hefner, who had a 4.34 ERA in 2013, but only won four of his 23 starts.

With Matt Harvey gone for the year, the Mets don't have a starting pitcher other than Zack Wheeler who can rack up strikeouts.  (Harvey and Wheeler were the only Mets starters who averaged better than 7.0 K/9 IP.)  Bronson Arroyo averaged exactly 7.0 K/9 IP during his first three seasons in Cincinnati.  But since 2009, Arroyo has failed to surpass 130 strikeouts in any season, averaging just 5.3 K/9 IP over his last 162 starts.  It's not as if Arroyo isn't throwing strikes.  It's just that his strikes aren't missing bats.  And that brings us to...

Those hits.  Oh, those hits.  From 2006 to 2010, Arroyo allowed opposing hitters to bat .259 against him.  That number jumped to .271 from 2011 to 2013.  He also failed to allow more than 31 homers in any season from 2006 to 2010.  But in the last three seasons, he has allowed more than 31 homers twice.  Arroyo gave up 46 dingers in 2011 and 32 long balls in 2013.  In both of those seasons, he led the league in taters served.

So let's talk about those taters.  Bronson Arroyo pitched eight years in Cincinnati.  That's two years short of a decade.  A total of 12 pitchers suited up for the Reds for at least a decade.  But none of them gave up as many homers as the 252 allowed by Arroyo.  In fact, prior to Arroyo, only one other pitcher had served up as many as 200 home runs as a member of the Reds.  That would be Tom Browning, who watched 234 balls sail over the wall.  However, Browning pitched 11 years in Cincinnati, making 33 more starts than Arroyo.  Yet Arroyo still gave up 18 more homers than Browning.  For a team that has been around since before the creation of the National League in 1876, Arroyo is the Reds' all-time gopher ball king.  That's not exactly something to be proud of.

Staying on the topic of home runs, it's true that Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark is a home run hitter's haven.  But Arroyo gave up nearly as many home runs on the road as he did at home.  Of the 252 homers Arroyo allowed as a member of the Reds, 130 were hit in Cincinnati, while 122 were slugged on the road.  He also has allowed five home runs at spacious Citi Field.  In just 31 innings of work.  To Mets hitters.  Former Met Jason Tyner could probably hit a home run against Arroyo if he was afforded the opportunity.

Bronson Arroyo has allowed five homers in 31 innings at Citi Field to guys who can't hit homers.

Finally, as great as Arroyo has been against the Mets in his career (8-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), he has been horrible versus the rest of the NL East.  Against the Braves, Marlins, Phillies and Nationals, Arroyo is 15-19 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  Arroyo has made 11 starts against the lowly Marlins.  He's beaten them once.  And remember that run support we were talking about before?  He had plenty of that against the Braves.  He holds a fairly impressive 7-4 career record versus Atlanta, but is also the owner of a 5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP against the team that would become his new division rival.  Should he become a Met, he'd lose the opportunity to face the team in the division he's had the most personal success against.  And he'd also gain more starts against the teams he's been below average against.

Without question, the Mets need to fill a few holes in the starting rotation prior to Opening Day.  But as consistent as Bronson Arroyo has been over the past decade, that consistency doesn't bode well for him should he become a Met.  He'd be losing that great offensive support he's had since 2006 in Cincinnati and he'd be moving to a division where he'd have to face some of his nemeses more often.

The Mets should look elsewhere when considering which starting pitcher they'd like to bring into the fold.  They should only sign Bronson Arroyo if they have a death wish for 2014.
 

A Year With No Harvey Days May Be A Good Thing

The 2013 season just ended for the Mets and their fans.  But the 2014 campaign has already come to a close for Matt Harvey before it even began.  The Mets' All-Star right-hander has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, which will be performed later this month by Dr. James Andrews.

Anytime a team loses its ace in the rotation, it's a tough blow to take.  But Harvey's absence might not be a bad thing for the Mets.  Allow me to explain.

Clearly, the Mets are going to need to acquire a starting pitcher to replace Harvey in the rotation, preferably an innings-eater.  Since Harvey is expected to be back in 2015, plus with the eventual call-up of Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, or both (assuming they're both not traded), the Mets only need to sign a starting pitcher to a team-friendly one-year deal.  If the Mets are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, that veteran starter suddenly becomes trade bait.  In 2013, Marlon Byrd (playing with the Mets on a one-year contract) and John Buck (in the last year of his three-year deal) parlayed fine seasons into an August deal with the playoff-bound Pirates.  That got the Mets a solid relief pitcher in Vic Black and a good infield prospect in Dilson Herrera.  The same thing can happen in 2014, but this time with a starting pitcher being traded instead of a right fielder and a catcher.

But what if the Mets actually compete for a playoff spot in 2014?  Well, then they just keep the starting pitcher to complement the younger, less experienced pitchers in the rotation.  Look at what the more experienced Bob Ojeda did to the younger Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez when he became a Met in 1986.  And don't forget the contributions by the late Don Cardwell as a member of the staff in 1969.

Without question, Matt Harvey will certainly be missed next year.  But his absence is not the end of the world, nor does it signify the end of the 2014 season six months before it has even begun.

The Mets will begin the season with Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler in the starting rotation.  The fourth starter's position can be filled by a veteran on a one-year deal (Dice-K Part Deux, maybe?  The Harang-atan?  Bronson Arroyo and his sweatshirt?), while the fifth starter can be either Carlos Torres or Jenrry Mejia (remember him?).  If the fourth and fifth starters perform reasonably well - great!  They'll immediately become attractive to other teams.  If they aren't dependable, Syndergaard and Montero will be more than happy to replace them by June.

Best case scenario - the Mets remain strong in the starting rotation and can trade some of their excess pitching for more pieces that will eventually make the team more complete in all facets of the game.

Worst case scenario - the fourth and fifth starters remind us of Shaun Marcum and Aaron Laffey and are quickly replaced by Syndergaard and/or Montero, who gain valuable experience before Harvey returns in 2015.

There will be no Harvey Days in 2014.  But that doesn't mean Mets fans will be left without happy days next season.  The rest of the starting rotation will make sure of that.