What Would Jose Reyes Think of the Jacoby Ellsbury Deal?

In a move that took this blogger by surprise, the Yankees and Jacoby Ellsbury agreed to a seven-year, $153 million deal, with an eighth year option that would increase the value of the contract to $169 million.  It would also take Ellsbury to his age 38 season.  That price tag seems a little high for a player who’s already in his 30s and whose main asset is his speed.  But it’s also much higher than what Jose Reyes got when he became a free agent following the 2011 season.  In fact, I wonder what Reyes is thinking right now.

When Reyes became a free agent two years ago, he was scooped up by the Miami Marlins for six years and $106 million.  If Ellsbury’s option year is picked up, he will be earning $63 million more than Reyes.  There are many reasons Reyes should be upset with this.

"How come Ellsbury got all that money and I didn't?"

One of the reasons why Reyes’ value wasn’t as high as it could have been was because he was considered injury prone.  In his final year with the Mets, he was placed on the disabled list twice and he also missed the majority of the 2003, 2004 and 2009 seasons because of various injuries.  But Ellsbury missed a total of 264 games from 2010 to 2013 – the equivalent of almost two full seasons in a four-year span.  Ellsbury spent just as much time on the disabled list as Reyes did, if not more.

Reyes was just 28 when he signed his nine-figure deal with the Marlins.  In other words, he was just entering his prime and would only be committed to Miami (and now Toronto) until he was 34.  Ellsbury has already entered his 30s and will only be halfway through his deal with the Yankees by the time he turns 34.  On the date of his 34^th birthday (September 11, 2017), Ellsbury will still be owed over $80 million, or about three-quarters of the entire amount of Reyes’ contract.

Ellsbury has played seven years in the major leagues, playing in just over 700 games.  In those seven seasons, Ellsbury has a .297 batting average and a .350 on-base percentage, numbers which were slightly higher than what Reyes produced in his first seven seasons with the Mets (.286 average, .337 OBP).  But Ellsbury doesn’t come close to Reyes in extra-base hits, runs scored and stolen bases – categories that are normally associated with speedsters and leadoff hitters.  In his first seven seasons in the big leagues, Reyes had 47 more extra-base hits, scored 75 more runs and stole 60 more bases than Ellsbury did in his first seven years.  Think about that for a moment.  Ellsbury has won three American League stolen base titles, averaging 57.3 steals in those three campaigns.  That’s still fewer stolen bases than the difference between him (241 SB in seven seasons) and Reyes (301 SB in his first seven seasons) at the start of their respective careers.

And last but not least, Reyes won a batting title in his final year before becoming a free agent.  He also scored 101 runs despite his two stints on the disabled list in 2011.  Meanwhile, Ellsbury has never won a batting title and has only scored 100 or more runs in a season once in his career.  Once.  A leadoff hitter with an explosive offense behind him has only had one season in which he crossed the plate 100 times.  And in that season (2011), he needed to drive himself in 32 times, as he hit that many home runs in what is now widely considered to be a fluke power season.  Ellsbury never managed to reach double digits in home runs in any of his other six major league seasons.  Reyes did it four times in a five-year span from 2006 to 2010.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a great major league player.  But he’s also a player who will turn 31 during the 2014 season, has only scored 100 or more runs as a leadoff hitter once in seven seasons, and has regularly suffered injuries that have caused him to miss months at a time.  If Ellsbury is worth up to $63 million more than Jose Reyes was two years ago when he was only 28 and coming off a season in which he won a batting title, then imagine what Reyes is feeling right now.

He certainly can’t be too happy about it.

Joey's Soapbox: My 2013 Unbiased LCS Picks

How's everybody doing?  This is Joey Beartran, your fearless and unbiased prognosticator and masticator.  (I'm having a delicious piece of cake right now, but typing with my mouth full is not as rude as talking with my mouth full.  After all, I wouldn't want to offend any of my readers.)

It's that time of year again - the League Championship Series is upon us!  Thirty teams began the season hoping to play for a pennant.  Four teams are left, including three teams I picked to lose in the division series.  (Why did you have to make me look bad, Tampa, Pittsburgh and Oakland?)

The Rays, Bucs and A's do not have a long tradition of advancing in the playoffs.  Tampa has won one division series in four attempts.  Pittsburgh hasn't won a postseason series since 1979.  And Oakland has been eliminated in the ALDS in six of their last seven playoff appearances.  The four remaining teams, however, have quite a history of being successful.

The Dodgers and Cardinals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the National League in terms of postseason appearances.  Los Angeles (and Brooklyn before 1958) has made 27 trips to the playoffs, which includes 12 division titles, 18 pennants and six World Series championships.  St. Louis has appeared in the postseason 26 times.  The Cardinals have won 11 division titles, 18 pennants and have won it all 11 times.

Meanwhile, Detroit and Boston have both won 11 American League pennants.  The Tigers have qualified for the postseason 15 times, winning three straight division titles (six overall).  They have also won the World Series four times.  The Red Sox, on the other hand, have won 11 American League pennants and seven Fall Classics.  They have appeared in the playoffs 21 times and have won seven AL East titles.

For those of you who aren't mathematically inclined, that's 89 playoff appearances, 36 division titles, 58 pennants and 28 World Series championships between the four teams that are still standing.  And by the time I'm done eating my Halloween candy corn, those numbers will be up to 60 pennants and 29 Fall Classic winners.  As great as the Yankees have been over the last century, even they can't boast those numbers.  (Sadly, neither can the Mets, but they will ... someday).

But enough with the baseball history lesson and me fawning for late October confectioneries.  It's time for me to give you a lesson on how to properly pick LCS winners.  Are you ready?  Here we go!


National League Championship Series


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

A smart person would never go against the Cardinals in October.  After all, St. Louis has been invited to ten of the last 14 postseasons, winning three pennants, two World Series and 13 playoff series.  But I'm not a person.  I'm a bear.  And I'm going against the Cardinals this October.

The Dodgers have the modern version of Koufax and Drysdale in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.  The current Dodger dynamic duo combined to allow three earned runs in three starts against the Braves in the division series, with only 14 Atlanta hitters reaching base in 19 innings.  Closer Kenley Jansen made a ninth inning appearance in each Dodger victory, retiring seven Braves hitters - all via the strikeout.

Meanwhile, St. Louis collected six hits in 11 at-bats versus A.J. Burnett in the first game of the NLDS.  After Burnett hit the showers, the Cardinals batted .184 (27-for-147) the rest of the series.  And that wasn't against the likes of Kershaw, Greinke and Jansen.

In the four games with Atlanta, the Dodgers batted .333 and had a .572 slugging percentage.  Los Angeles collected ten doubles, a triple and seven home runs against a formidable Braves pitching staff.  St. Louis has good pitching, but it's going to have a tough time keeping the Dodgers' bats under wraps.

Carlos Beltran has made four trips to the postseason in his career.  Each of his first three playoff appearances has ended with a loss in the seventh game of the League Championship Series.  Why mess with a good thing?

Prediction:  Dodgers in 7.


American League Championship Series


Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox

The Tigers have replaced the Yankees as the most consistent winner in the American League.  Detroit is making its third consecutive appearance in the ALCS - the first American League squad to accomplish the feat since the Yankees went to four straight from 1998 to 2001.  But they struggled at times to hit Oakland's young and inexperienced pitching staff.  Boston's staff has a little more experience.

Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz match up quite favorably with the Tigers' top two starters (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander).  But Verlander won't be available to pitch until Game 3 of the ALCS.  By then, Boston's lineup might have battered the Tigers into submission.

How balanced is Boston's lineup?  Consider this.  Eight players reached double digits in home runs, while two others ended the season with nine homers.  The two players who fell one homer short of reaching double digits combined to hit 73 doubles and 10 triples.  They also scored 183 runs, drove in 137 and stole 69 bases.  Those players were Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.  That's how good the Red Sox lineup is.  The Tigers are going to have their hands full in this series.

Detroit finished second in the league in runs scored during the regular season, but they only managed to score 17 runs in the five games versus Oakland.  Fortunately for them, the A's don't boast a Murderer's Row lineup.  Seventeen runs against Boston in the ALCS will just not get it done.

Prediction:  Red Sox in 5.
 

15 Years Later: The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre

It was 15 years ago today.  On March 31, 1997, the Mets made a trade from which they have yet to recover.  It rivals the Ryan-for-Fregosi trade in 1971 and the Midnight Massacre deal of Tom Seaver in 1977 for worst trades in Mets history.  You know the trade I'm talking about.

I'm talking about the Tim Bogar for Luis Lopez trade.

Tim Bogar, we hardly knew ye!

Tim Bogar came up to the Mets in 1993 and fit in immediately, hitting .184 over his first 22 games.  But then Bogar caught fire, hitting .364 over his next 24 games.  After cooling off in August (if such a thing is possible), Bogar saved his best for last.

On August 14, 1993, Tim Bogar started at second base for the Mets against the Phillies at Veterans Stadium.  The game looked like any other for Bogar, as he flied out to center in his first at-bat.  But what he did in his next four at-bats turned him into an instant Mets legend.

In the third inning, Bogar doubled to right and later scored on an error.  Two innings later, Bogar doubled again and scored on a Dave Gallagher hit.  It was only the second time in Bogar's career that he had picked up multiple extra-base hits in the same game, having accomplished the feat on June 19, 1993 against the Pirates.  But against the other team from Pennsylvania, Bogar wasn't quite finished.

With the Mets holding on to a slim 5-4 lead in the sixth, Bogar unloaded a three-run homer off reliever Mike "Mitch is the other guy" Williams.  It was Bogar's second career home run and gave the Mets and Bobby Jones (who was making his major league debut in the game) a four-run cushion. 

Finally, in the ninth inning, with the lead cut to 8-5, Bogar came up one last time.  And we do mean one LAST time, as he hit a fly ball that eluded centerfielder Lenny Dykstra.  By the time the play was over, Bogar had scored on an inside-the-park home run, giving him four extra-base hits on the day.  However, that would be Bogar's final at-bat of his rookie season, as he injured his hand sliding into home plate and did not play again until the following season.

Despite the fragile ending, Bogar did become the first Met to hit an inside-the-park and an outside-the-park home run in the same game.  He also became the third Met to collect two doubles and two home runs in the same game, joining second basemen Tim Teufel (July 5, 1987) and Gregg Jefferies (September 7, 1989) on that exclusive list.  Yes, you read that correctly.  All three men who accomplished the two-double, two-homer feat played second base for the Mets.  If this was an episode of Sesame Street, this paragraph would be brought to you by the number 2.

Sesame Street's favorite double play combo would appreciate Tim Bogar's signature game as a Met.

After his season-ending monster game, Bogar played three more years for the Mets, but only collected 286 at-bats over the three seasons, hitting a combined .241 from 1994 to 1996.  Since Bogar was just taking up a roster spot without giving much on the field, the Mets traded him to Houston for Luis Lopez.  What did Lopez do in his three seasons in New York?  Not much more than Bogar did.  Lopez (.250, 5 HR, 54 RBI in 548 at-bats) and Bogar (.241, 6 HR, 57 RBI in 491 at-bats) were basically the same player, except that Lopez was four years younger than Bogar.

Lopez didn't do much for the Mets, except become part of the Tim Bogar Trade Chain (popularized by Jon Springer in Mets By The Numbers).  Bogar went on to become a minor league manager before joining the Boston Red Sox as their first base coach after the 2008 season.  One year later, Bogar became the team's third base coach, and was present for Jacoby Ellsbury's inside-the-park homer, waving the Red Sox outfielder toward the plate as he rounded third.  This time, no hands were broken on the approach to home plate.

Currently, Bogar is the bench coach for Bobby Valentine and the Red Sox, reuniting with the last man to manage him as a member of the Mets.  With his minor league managing experience (Bogar had a .601 career winning percentage as a minor league manager) and his time as a coach in the majors, it would come as no surprise if Bogar were one day managing a team at the big league level.  Meanwhile, Luis Lopez has not been seen since retiring after the 2005 season.  Presumably, he is now walking the Earth like Caine in Kung Fu.

Tim Bogar was traded 15 years ago today, in what can now be called "The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre".  When Bogar was traded on March 31, 1997, an era in Mets baseball ended.  It was an era that featured beloved players like Jeff Kent, Bobby Bonilla, Carlos Baerga and others.  The Mets have not been the same since Bogar left.  Who knows when they'll ever be able to recover?