The Magic 8-Ball Predicts The 2016 Mets Season

Last year, for the first time in seven seasons, the Mets produced a winning record.  They also won their first division title since James Blunt told us that we were beautiful and Shakira claimed her hips didn't lie.  And of course, New York appeared in a World Series for the first time since a month before hanging chads opened our eyes and entered the lexicon.

But like Mark McGwire standing before Congress and unlike Yankees fans standing before Mets fans, we're not here to talk about the past.  Rather, we're here to discuss what we expect from the Mets during the upcoming 2016 campaign.  And who better to talk about future events than our old pal, the Magic 8-Ball?

Of course, our sarcastic sphere has been a persnickety prognosticator since we first used its services in 2010, quicker with an insult than with a prediction.  However, our round plastic friend has also been correct on several topics, meaning we can depend on it just as much as we can count on Jonathan Papelbon being a douche.

So let's stop yapping and let's bring in the ball that knows it all.  Straight outta the box, it's the Magic 8-Ball!  Welcome back, M8B!

Um ... yeah.  That's not quite the response I expected from you.  Is everything okay, my friend?

That's a very good reason for you to be happy.  Although "happy" and "Magic 8-Ball" don't usually go hand-in-hand.  Are you absolutely sure you're well enough to answer my questions today?  After all, Mets fans have been anxiously waiting all winter for what you have to say.  To them, you're like the Punxsutawney Phil of predictors.

That's absolutely right.  Although it sounds strange hearing that from you.  Anyway, let's just start with the questions.  I'll wonder whether you have a concussion or not after we're done.  Do you think the Mets' starting pitching will be as good on the field as it is on paper?

That's great to hear.  Who do you think will emerge as the top pitcher in the rotation?

And what has Syndergaard shown you to make you feel this way?

That's true.  Anyone who appreciates Bartolo Colon's veteran presence as much as Thor does should definitely pick up a thing or two on how to be a successful pitcher in the major leagues.  And speaking of successful pitchers, what are your thoughts on Jacob deGrom losing some of the velocity on his fastball?

Really?  Wouldn't that make it easier for opposing hitters to catch up to his heater?

Ergonomically correct?  I don't understand what you mean by that.

Ah, I gotcha now.  He'll be able to pinpoint his pitches better if his luscious locks don't flow freely across his face as he releases the ball.  That's some good outside the box thinking by you.

Good point.  Now, we've discussed Syndergaard and deGrom.  We also know from past experience that Matt Harvey will give you the finger if you believe he's not going to have a successful season.  But what about Steven Matz?  He only made six regular season starts last year and suffered his first loss at the big league level in the postseason.  Opposing hitters batted .283 against him in the playoffs, which was not very impressive.  Are you concerned about him as he enters his first full season in the majors?

That's incredibly optimistic of you.  I mean, he got hurt last year.  He was pitching in and out of jams in the postseason.  And he was inconsistent in Grapefruit League action this year.  What makes you so sure he'll able to pitch effectively for the Mets this season?

Don't mess with the family or you're gonna get whacked.  Got it.  (Even though I thought Grandpa Bert was a good fella.)

Let's move on to the offense now.  Sandy Alderson did what no sane person thought he could do; he re-signed Yoenis Cespedes to a team-friendly contract.  In addition to adding switch hitters Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera to the team, plus the first full season of Michael Conforto in a Mets uniform, does this make the Mets one of the top offensive teams in the National League?

Why does it have to?  No one can know for certain how Cespedes, Walker, Cabrera and Conforto will handle their first full seasons in Mets uniforms.

That's true.  The Mets should have a better lineup by default when they're competing against the likes of the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Padres, etc.

Speaking of bats that aren't healthy, what are your feelings on David Wright?  His lifetime supply of spinal stenosis will surely cause him to miss at least a month's worth of games.  Do you think the Mets will be able to withstand long stretches without their captain in the lineup?

You're very confident with your answer.  Do you really think players such as Wilmer Flores will be able to fill Wright's shoes both offensively and defensively?  What will the Mets do if Flores doesn't perform well when he eventually has to fill in for Wright?

It worked before.  Can't see why it wouldn't work again.  So let's get to the good part.  What's your final prediction for the Mets' record this year?

Wow!  After so many years of you predicting doom and gloom for the Mets, I certainly wasn't expecting that.  Do you truly think they're going to win it all this year?  What will propel them to October (and perhaps November) glory?

Wait, don't you mean Zack Wheeler?  He's the one returning from Tommy John surgery on or around the first of July.  And isn't Sidd Finch a fictional character?  If I recall, he was just part of an elaborate April Fool's joke.  What are you trying to say?

Wait, so you weren't being sincere with your answers?  Even after I voiced my pleasure at receiving honest responses from you?

I guess I'm the fool on this early April day.

And on that note, I think it's best if we bid adieu to the Magic 8-Ball for another season, as we wonder if the Mets are really going to win 98 regular season games and 11 more in the postseason to win their third World Series championship.  It's certainly possible that the team with the best starting rotation in baseball and an offense that's among the best and deepest in the National League can take the crown after coming within three wins of a title last year.  We'll just have to wait until the fall to see which of the Magic 8-Ball's predictions were a hoax and which, if any, were legitimate.  Because just like someone who claims to be a lifelong Marlins fan, it's tough to believe anything the Magic 8-Ball says.

That's all for this year's predictions.  Hopefully, you're all as ready for the upcoming regular season as I am, especially since the 2016 season is sure to be one of the most highly anticipated campaigns in the history of the franchise.  And before I forget, please help control the skullduggerous sphere population.  Have your Magic 8-Ball spayed or neutered.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  The Magic 8-Ball has been making predictions since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the previous six seasons, please click on the links below:

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

15 Years Later: The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre

It was 15 years ago today.  On March 31, 1997, the Mets made a trade from which they have yet to recover.  It rivals the Ryan-for-Fregosi trade in 1971 and the Midnight Massacre deal of Tom Seaver in 1977 for worst trades in Mets history.  You know the trade I'm talking about.

I'm talking about the Tim Bogar for Luis Lopez trade.

Tim Bogar, we hardly knew ye!

Tim Bogar came up to the Mets in 1993 and fit in immediately, hitting .184 over his first 22 games.  But then Bogar caught fire, hitting .364 over his next 24 games.  After cooling off in August (if such a thing is possible), Bogar saved his best for last.

On August 14, 1993, Tim Bogar started at second base for the Mets against the Phillies at Veterans Stadium.  The game looked like any other for Bogar, as he flied out to center in his first at-bat.  But what he did in his next four at-bats turned him into an instant Mets legend.

In the third inning, Bogar doubled to right and later scored on an error.  Two innings later, Bogar doubled again and scored on a Dave Gallagher hit.  It was only the second time in Bogar's career that he had picked up multiple extra-base hits in the same game, having accomplished the feat on June 19, 1993 against the Pirates.  But against the other team from Pennsylvania, Bogar wasn't quite finished.

With the Mets holding on to a slim 5-4 lead in the sixth, Bogar unloaded a three-run homer off reliever Mike "Mitch is the other guy" Williams.  It was Bogar's second career home run and gave the Mets and Bobby Jones (who was making his major league debut in the game) a four-run cushion. 

Finally, in the ninth inning, with the lead cut to 8-5, Bogar came up one last time.  And we do mean one LAST time, as he hit a fly ball that eluded centerfielder Lenny Dykstra.  By the time the play was over, Bogar had scored on an inside-the-park home run, giving him four extra-base hits on the day.  However, that would be Bogar's final at-bat of his rookie season, as he injured his hand sliding into home plate and did not play again until the following season.

Despite the fragile ending, Bogar did become the first Met to hit an inside-the-park and an outside-the-park home run in the same game.  He also became the third Met to collect two doubles and two home runs in the same game, joining second basemen Tim Teufel (July 5, 1987) and Gregg Jefferies (September 7, 1989) on that exclusive list.  Yes, you read that correctly.  All three men who accomplished the two-double, two-homer feat played second base for the Mets.  If this was an episode of Sesame Street, this paragraph would be brought to you by the number 2.

Sesame Street's favorite double play combo would appreciate Tim Bogar's signature game as a Met.

After his season-ending monster game, Bogar played three more years for the Mets, but only collected 286 at-bats over the three seasons, hitting a combined .241 from 1994 to 1996.  Since Bogar was just taking up a roster spot without giving much on the field, the Mets traded him to Houston for Luis Lopez.  What did Lopez do in his three seasons in New York?  Not much more than Bogar did.  Lopez (.250, 5 HR, 54 RBI in 548 at-bats) and Bogar (.241, 6 HR, 57 RBI in 491 at-bats) were basically the same player, except that Lopez was four years younger than Bogar.

Lopez didn't do much for the Mets, except become part of the Tim Bogar Trade Chain (popularized by Jon Springer in Mets By The Numbers).  Bogar went on to become a minor league manager before joining the Boston Red Sox as their first base coach after the 2008 season.  One year later, Bogar became the team's third base coach, and was present for Jacoby Ellsbury's inside-the-park homer, waving the Red Sox outfielder toward the plate as he rounded third.  This time, no hands were broken on the approach to home plate.

Currently, Bogar is the bench coach for Bobby Valentine and the Red Sox, reuniting with the last man to manage him as a member of the Mets.  With his minor league managing experience (Bogar had a .601 career winning percentage as a minor league manager) and his time as a coach in the majors, it would come as no surprise if Bogar were one day managing a team at the big league level.  Meanwhile, Luis Lopez has not been seen since retiring after the 2005 season.  Presumably, he is now walking the Earth like Caine in Kung Fu.

Tim Bogar was traded 15 years ago today, in what can now be called "The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre".  When Bogar was traded on March 31, 1997, an era in Mets baseball ended.  It was an era that featured beloved players like Jeff Kent, Bobby Bonilla, Carlos Baerga and others.  The Mets have not been the same since Bogar left.  Who knows when they'll ever be able to recover?

Tim Tebow Could Fill The Holiest of Holies In The Mets' Bullpen

With the uncertainty surrounding the lefty specialist role in the bullpen, the Mets have been considering a number of options.  Tim Byrdak was originally supposed to fill that position for the team.  Oops.  The Hulkamaniac needed surgery to repair a torn meniscus and was lost for the season opener faster than Randy Savage could snap into a Slim Jim.  Garrett Olson was then supposed to be the favorite to replace Thunder Lips.  Instead, he became a human baseball magnet, attracting line drives whenever he stepped onto a mound.  He has since been reassigned to the minors.  Robert Carson?  He was injured as well, plus no one really knew who he was when he wasn’t wearing his “Hi, my name is Robert Carson” nametag.

Remember Daniel Herrera?  He pitched well in his late-season tryout last year after the Mets acquired him for Francisco “Frankie Knuckles” Rodriguez.  But alas, the lilliputian lefty will only be considered for the specialist role as a last resort.

On Monday, Joe Beimel was released by the Texas Rangers.  The soon-to-be 35-year-old had been on the Mets’ radar for many years now, but he did not pitch well for the Pirates last year, finishing the year with a 5.33 ERA.  So who’s left to consider as the first lefty to come out of the bullpen when the situation presents itself?  No divine intervention needed here.  The answer to the Mets’ prayers might be across the Hudson River in New Jersey.

He wore blue and orange in Denver.  Might he do the same as the lefty specialist in Flushing?

Tim Tebow was traded to the New York Jets to be their backup quarterback.  Why should this news be of interest to the Mets?  Because...

• 1) He won’t be doing anything in April, as the Jets are in the middle of their offseason.
• b) He’s a quarterback, meaning he’s experienced using his arm.
• iii) He’s a lefty.

Considering that the Mets are in dire need of a lefty specialist in the bullpen while Byrdak recovers from his injury, why wouldn’t they consider the left-handed Tebow?  After all, he’s going to need to keep his arm in shape so it can be ready for clipboard-holding duties once Jets training camp opens.

As a quarterback, Tebow has been much maligned.  He throws too many incomplete passes.  He tends not to be able to throw passes of more than 30 yards.  He spends too much time running with the ball.  He drinks too much milk on the sidelines.  Yada yada yada.  But as a left-handed reliever?  Now that’s where his future might be.

As a pitcher, Tebow wouldn’t have to hit a moving receiver standing 30 yards away.  All he’d have to do is hit a stationary target (the catcher’s mitt) from a distance of 60 feet, 6 inches.  That’s only 20 yards.

Also, anyone who’s seen Tebow throw a pass knows that his balls tend to move quite a bit once his hand releases them.  (You do know I’m talking about footballs here.  Don’t blaspheme Tebow.)  Although the wobbliness of his balls would tend to be disadvantageous in football, as it’s harder for a receiver to catch a ball that’s not thrown in a perfect spiral, Tebow could work that to his advantage as a relief pitcher.  Pitches with movement would probably cause more swings and misses and could also induce the pitcher’s best friend, the double play grounder.

On the football field, a quarterback could get seriously hurt if he runs around too much.  The next time Tebow cuts left on the gridiron, he might experience a close encounter of the 300-pound lineman kind.  On the pitcher’s mound, however, being mobile can be beneficial.  Johan Santana has always possessed cat-like quickness on the mound.  So did former Met and public school enthusiast Mike Hampton.  To be able to move around quickly on and around the mound is tantamount to having a fifth infielder.  Ground balls up the middle aren’t always destined to go into center field.  A mobile pitcher is also the perfect foil for a batter who has a tendency to drop down bunts.  At the very least, a fast-moving pitcher can also get out of the way of line drives easier than one who doesn’t possess keen reflexes.

At Shea Stadium, fans would always get pumped whenever Billy Wagner came into the game to Metallica’s “Enter Sandman” from 2006 to 2008.  Some fans even paused on the Shake Shack line when J.J. Putz entered a game to AC/DC’s “Thunderstruck” in 2009.  Hard rock songs and relief pitchers go together like Bobby Bonilla and earplugs.  So it would seem like a match made in heaven if Tim Tebow would charge in from the bullpen to Stryper’s “To Hell With The Devil”.  Would the Shea Bridge be able to handle all the fans Tebowing in unison as he made his way to the mound?

"Hey, Tim Tebow's coming in from the bullpen!  Cue Stryper.  No, I'm not kidding.  Honestly."

The Mets improved their bullpen during the offseason, adding Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Frank Francisco.  But all three pitchers are right-handers.  The only southpaw in the bullpen mix was Tim Byrdak.  Now he more than likely won’t be ready for Opening Day and the Mets are left scrambling for his replacement.

Garrett Olson is back in the minors.  Robert Carson forgot his ID and is not being allowed into the ballpark.  Joe Beimel has cooties.  Daniel Herrera might become Tim Byrdak's replacement by default, but the best option for the interim lefty specialist job might be the guy who knows a thing or two about option plays.

Tim Tebow, left-handed reliever?  Hey, it could be worse.  At least the Mets aren’t thinking of signing Sidd Finch … yet.

Where's Sidd Finch When You Need Him?

It was twenty-five years ago today that the April 1, 1985 issue of Sports Illustrated hit newsstands across the country (see cover, left). Amongst all the extensive coverage of the NCAA Final Four and the upcoming Opening Day of the baseball season was one particular article that caught the eyes of many Mets fans.

The late, great George Plimpton had written an article for that particular issue called "The Curious Case of Sidd Finch". In the article, Plimpton went on to discuss how Finch was a rookie who was invited to Mets' spring training because he possessed a 168 MPH fastball. The backstory on Finch was as incredible as the blazing fastball. Alas, the story was just an elaborate April Fool's Day joke.

Astute readers who paid close attention to the subheading of the article ("He's a pitcher, part yogi and part recluse. Impressively liberated from our opulent life-style, Sidd's deciding about yoga.") would have noticed that the first letter of each word in the subheading spelled out "Happy April Fools Day".

With references to former Mets pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre and former Mets centerfielder Lenny Dykstra, many readers believed the article to be a true story, when in fact, Plimpton and the Mets organization collaborated on the hoax.

Now it's time to jump into the DeLorean and come back from 1985 to the present day. The 2010 Mets are struggling with their starting rotation. After Johan Santana, the rotation is full of question marks. John Maine is pencilled in as the #2 starter behind Santana, but he's coming off an injury-plagued season and after "hurling" his final pitch, had to leave today's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals with a particularly bad stomach virus.

Jonathon Niese is unproven in the major leagues, but has shown enough to Jerry Manuel for him to proclaim Niese as his #3 starter. Is this a testament to Niese's ability or is this Manuel's way of saying he doesn't trust Mike Pelfrey (#4 in the rotation) and Oliver Perez (numero cinco) enough to insert them behind Santana and Maine? Both Pelfrey and Perez are coming off awful seasons and neither pitcher has performed well in Spring Training.

It's too bad Sidd Finch was only an imaginary character. With all the question marks surrounding the Mets rotation in 2010, I'd take my chances on an imaginary pitcher before sending anyone not named Santana out to the mound.

Side note: Although the Sidd Finch article was a hoax, something quite real also happened 25 years ago today. That event is now very important to the Mets...

On April 1, 1985, Mets first baseman Daniel Murphy was born. Unfortunately, due to his MCL injury, Daniel wasn't able to celebrate the momentous occasion with his teammates on the field, but at least he didn't aggravate his injury when he blew out his candles.

Studious Metsimus would like to wish a happy 25th birthday to Daniel Murphy! We hope you get back on the field soon. (Joey would also like some of your cake if there is any left over.) Good luck with your recovery!

The Studious Metsimus Jinx Is Alive And Well

Back In January, Studious Metsimus proclaimed that the Mets should sign Ben Sheets and made a reference to his son, Seaver. That post mentioned how Omar Minaya would assume that the little Sheet was named after Tom Seaver, without considering that perhaps Ben Sheets was a fan of the Seaver Family on the show "Growing Pains". There was also a comparison between Omar Minaya and Boner, a dimwitted character on "Growing Pains". Since then, the Mets failed to sign Ben Sheets and Andrew Koenig (the actor who played Boner) passed away.

Last week, there was a piece on Studious Metsimus called "To Avoid Repeating History, Mets Shouldn't Dropkick Murphy". Yesterday, it was revealed that Daniel Murphy will miss two to six weeks with a Grade 1 sprained MCL. Apparently, history has repeated itself (injuries) and the Mets will have to go with another first baseman.

There appears to be a Studious Metsimus Jinx similar to the one that affects players and teams that appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Remember last year when Sports Illustrated predicted that the Mets would win the World Series? Well that didn't exactly happen. Not only that, but SI predicted that the Mets would finish with a 92-70 record. Instead, they finished 70-92.

Since there is clearly a hex surrounding people, places and Boners who are mentioned on Studious Metsimus, I'd like to spend the rest of this blog praising the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies are attempting to become the first National League team since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals to win three consecutive National League pennants. With the addition of ace pitcher Roy Halladay, who's going to stop them? Jimmy Rollins doesn't even have to open his mouth. Everyone already knows the Phillies are the team to beat.

Manager Charlie Manuel slimmed down during the off-season. He claimed to do it for his health, but we all know why he really did it. It's because a staff fronted by soon-to-be Cy Young Award winner Halladay, followed by Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and ageless wonder Jamie Moyer will require very few visits to the mound. Manuel certainly wasn't going to lose weight that way.

Last season, the Phillies finished at or near the top of the National League in most offensive categories. They hit more home runs with men on base (96) than the Mets hit home runs (95). Clearly, the Phillies are a juggernaut that cannot be stopped.

The Mets and the rest of the National League might as well raise the white flag now. The Phillies are clearly the team to beat and nothing will get in their way.

On that note, the Studious Metsimus staff would like to wish you all a Happy April Phools...uh...Happy April Fools Day! Perhaps this Studious Metsimus Jinx can be good for something!