The Magic 8-Ball Predicts The 2014 Mets Season

It's almost time to begin another 162-game journey with the Mets.  But will it be a journey that leads us to unexpected happiness or another season of "been there, done that"?

At Studious Metsimus, we always want to know in advance what the Mets are going to do prior to Opening Day.  We figure that if there's something to look forward to during the upcoming season, we should be prepared for it.  Similarly, if there's something we wish we didn't know, we should also share it with our readers.  Why should we keep all the yummy disappointment to ourselves?

Since the end of the 2013 campaign, the Mets have added two new outfielders in Chris Young and Curtis Granderson.  Young is signed to a one-year deal because the Mets want to be winners of this year's Marlon Byrd Award.  That's the honor given to the front office who gets lucky with a reclamation project for one year, then trades him away for prospects at the trade deadline, hoping he signs a multi-year deal the following season with a division rival (preferably the Phillies) who foolishly overpays for his services.  Granderson was brought aboard with a four-year contract because the Mets want to prove that not every power-hitting outfielder who comes to Citi Field on a four-year deal is going to turn into Jason Bay.

In addition to Young and Granderson, the Mets added 40-year-old Bartolo Colon to be the team's temporary replacement for the injured Matt Harvey, as well as the club's elder statesman and nutrition consultant.  This probably also explains why Harvey is adamant about returning before the end of the 2014 season.  Not because he wants to be the oldest guy in the clubhouse (which he won't be for many years), but because he doesn't want to trip over empty KFC buckets in the clubhouse.

Will the Mets' new additions cause the team's fans to party like it's 1986?  Or will they get over this off-season's acquisitions almost as quickly as Cole Hamels racks up losses against the Mets?

The answers to those questions and more are the reasons why we have awoken our Magic 8-Ball from its yearly hibernation.  So sit back, relax, make yourself some chicken nachos (not necessarily in that order - we realize it would be difficult to make yourself a snack after you've sat down and begun to relax), and prepare yourselves for the wise words that can only come from a quick shake of the Studious Metsimus Magic 8-Ball!  Take it away, M8B!

Oh, sorry about that.  I won't make that mistake again.  So let's jump right into it, Magic 8-Ball.  What are your thoughts on the team this year?  Do you think they'll be competitive in the NL East?

My bad.  How do you feel the Mets will fare in the division in 2014?

 You do realize there are only five teams in the NL East, right?

Let's move on.  The Mets signed Chris Young, Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon to free-agent contracts during the off-season.  Which of the three players do you think will have the greatest impact at Citi Field?

Wow, you seem quite sure of yourself.  Why do you think it's absolutely Chris Young?

I don't understand.  What does his proximity to Shake Shack have to do with his value on the team?

Okay.  I think we're beyond fat jokes here.  Everyone's doing them.  You're better than that.

I'll forget I ever asked that question.  Now, Magic 8-Ball, if you were manager Terry Collins, who would you want to have a bounceback season from the most?

Zack Wheeler?  Are you crazy?  Wheeler had a great rookie season, going 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA.  Why would you think Terry Collins would want him to bounce back?  What is he bouncing back from?

I see your point.  So let's shift back to the offense.  Ike Davis and Lucas Duda both spent extended periods of time at AAA-Las Vegas, yet still managed to strike out a combined 203 times at the major league level.  They drove in a total of 66 runs for the Mets, so for every RBI they produced, they struck out more than three times.  Now they're both vying for playing time at first base.  What's the easy solution for this conundrum?

If only the batting-helmeted one was still active and not about to turn 46 this coming August.

That's another outstanding point, Magic 8-Ball!  You're on a roll today!

Alas, Tejada is no Jose Reyes on the field.

You're quite the savvy sphere!  Let's try a lighter question now.  David Wright was just named the face of MLB.  If baseball named other players as the arm or leg of baseball, which players would those be?

Excuse me?  What are you talking about?  Did I say something wrong?

So because you're an armless, legless face, that means no one can ask you a question about those body parts?

You're a little too sensitive for a Magic 8-Ball, you know that?  So I'm not getting anything from you on this topic?

I guess that's better than nothing.  So one more question on an individual player before I ask you for your prediction for the Mets' record in 2014.  What do you think Matt Harvey will do to stay occupied during his year of rehab and recovery from Tommy John surgery?

What's that?

I didn't know he was trying to take your job.  Oh, wait.  You're talking about that tweet he put out predicting that Harvey Day would happen in 2014.  I honestly don't think you have to worry about him challenging you in the prognosticating profession.

>Snicker<  You really didn't just say you were "quite shaken" after reading Harvey's tweet, did you?  A Magic 8-Ball being shaken?  >Chuckle<

Okay, I'm sorry.  Final question.  What do you think will be the Mets' final record in 2014 and where will they finish in the NL East?

Aw, come on!  Can't you give the Mets an extra win so they can at least finish the year with a .500 record?

And on that note, I think it's time to pack away the Studious Metsimus Magic 8-Ball in a box, preferably a dark one with no air holes, and not let it out for another year at the very least.  Hmmm, I wonder what Matt Harvey is doing right now...

Enjoy the upcoming baseball season, Mets fans!  And as always, please help control the snarky sphere population.  Have your Magic 8-Ball spayed or neutered.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  The Magic 8-Ball has made predictions before.  To see what it said prior to each of the previous four seasons, please click on the links below:

2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

  

15 Years Later: The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre

It was 15 years ago today.  On March 31, 1997, the Mets made a trade from which they have yet to recover.  It rivals the Ryan-for-Fregosi trade in 1971 and the Midnight Massacre deal of Tom Seaver in 1977 for worst trades in Mets history.  You know the trade I'm talking about.

I'm talking about the Tim Bogar for Luis Lopez trade.

Tim Bogar, we hardly knew ye!

Tim Bogar came up to the Mets in 1993 and fit in immediately, hitting .184 over his first 22 games.  But then Bogar caught fire, hitting .364 over his next 24 games.  After cooling off in August (if such a thing is possible), Bogar saved his best for last.

On August 14, 1993, Tim Bogar started at second base for the Mets against the Phillies at Veterans Stadium.  The game looked like any other for Bogar, as he flied out to center in his first at-bat.  But what he did in his next four at-bats turned him into an instant Mets legend.

In the third inning, Bogar doubled to right and later scored on an error.  Two innings later, Bogar doubled again and scored on a Dave Gallagher hit.  It was only the second time in Bogar's career that he had picked up multiple extra-base hits in the same game, having accomplished the feat on June 19, 1993 against the Pirates.  But against the other team from Pennsylvania, Bogar wasn't quite finished.

With the Mets holding on to a slim 5-4 lead in the sixth, Bogar unloaded a three-run homer off reliever Mike "Mitch is the other guy" Williams.  It was Bogar's second career home run and gave the Mets and Bobby Jones (who was making his major league debut in the game) a four-run cushion. 

Finally, in the ninth inning, with the lead cut to 8-5, Bogar came up one last time.  And we do mean one LAST time, as he hit a fly ball that eluded centerfielder Lenny Dykstra.  By the time the play was over, Bogar had scored on an inside-the-park home run, giving him four extra-base hits on the day.  However, that would be Bogar's final at-bat of his rookie season, as he injured his hand sliding into home plate and did not play again until the following season.

Despite the fragile ending, Bogar did become the first Met to hit an inside-the-park and an outside-the-park home run in the same game.  He also became the third Met to collect two doubles and two home runs in the same game, joining second basemen Tim Teufel (July 5, 1987) and Gregg Jefferies (September 7, 1989) on that exclusive list.  Yes, you read that correctly.  All three men who accomplished the two-double, two-homer feat played second base for the Mets.  If this was an episode of Sesame Street, this paragraph would be brought to you by the number 2.

Sesame Street's favorite double play combo would appreciate Tim Bogar's signature game as a Met.

After his season-ending monster game, Bogar played three more years for the Mets, but only collected 286 at-bats over the three seasons, hitting a combined .241 from 1994 to 1996.  Since Bogar was just taking up a roster spot without giving much on the field, the Mets traded him to Houston for Luis Lopez.  What did Lopez do in his three seasons in New York?  Not much more than Bogar did.  Lopez (.250, 5 HR, 54 RBI in 548 at-bats) and Bogar (.241, 6 HR, 57 RBI in 491 at-bats) were basically the same player, except that Lopez was four years younger than Bogar.

Lopez didn't do much for the Mets, except become part of the Tim Bogar Trade Chain (popularized by Jon Springer in Mets By The Numbers).  Bogar went on to become a minor league manager before joining the Boston Red Sox as their first base coach after the 2008 season.  One year later, Bogar became the team's third base coach, and was present for Jacoby Ellsbury's inside-the-park homer, waving the Red Sox outfielder toward the plate as he rounded third.  This time, no hands were broken on the approach to home plate.

Currently, Bogar is the bench coach for Bobby Valentine and the Red Sox, reuniting with the last man to manage him as a member of the Mets.  With his minor league managing experience (Bogar had a .601 career winning percentage as a minor league manager) and his time as a coach in the majors, it would come as no surprise if Bogar were one day managing a team at the big league level.  Meanwhile, Luis Lopez has not been seen since retiring after the 2005 season.  Presumably, he is now walking the Earth like Caine in Kung Fu.

Tim Bogar was traded 15 years ago today, in what can now be called "The April Fools' Day Eve Massacre".  When Bogar was traded on March 31, 1997, an era in Mets baseball ended.  It was an era that featured beloved players like Jeff Kent, Bobby Bonilla, Carlos Baerga and others.  The Mets have not been the same since Bogar left.  Who knows when they'll ever be able to recover?

If You're Not Booing Jason Bay Yet, Perhaps This Will Help

Jason Bay is being paid $66 million by the New York Mets to suck. Judging by the boos at Citi Field, he is earning every penny of it. But what are they booing exactly? Is it the lack of home runs by Bay after smashing 36 longballs for Boston in 2009? Is it the failure to drive in runs after recording four 100 RBI seasons in the five seasons prior to becoming a Met? Or is it just that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are no longer around, so someone's gotta get the boo treatment.

Well, my fellow Mets fans, I think it's a combination of all those things. Jason Bay has been a disappointment. He's barely been worth $66, let alone $66 million. So feel free to boo him if you choose to do so. If you still don't see why he should be booed, let me throw some numbers at you about Jason Bay that you might not have known.

There have been 96 everyday players (non-pitchers) in history to strike out at least 125 times as members of the Mets. Of those 96, only one of them did not register at least 500 career at-bats for the Mets. That player is Jason Bay (127 Ks in 482 at-bats).

This year, Jason Bay has a slugging percentage of .291 in 134 at-bats. To put that into perspective, Jason Isringhausen has a .299 slugging percentage in 97 career at-bats for the Mets. Sticking on the Jason vs. Jason theme, Bay has 10 RBI this season in those 134 at-bats. In 37 fewer career at-bats, Izzy has 11 RBI.

Jason Bay has 38 extra-base hits in his Mets career (482 at-bats), which means he collects an extra-base hit every 12.7 at-bats. Here are former Mets with similar numbers:

• Victor Diaz: 39 XBH in 350 at-bats.
• Tsuyoshi Shinjo: 38 XBH, 514 at-bats.
• Luis Lopez: 37 XBH, 548 at-bats.
• Desi Relaford: 35 XBH, 301 at-bats.
• Marlon Anderson: 33 XBH, 446 at-bats.
• Dave Gallagher: 33 XBH, 376 at-bats.
• Eric Valent: 33 XBH, 313 at-bats.
• Marv Throneberry: 31 XBH, 371 at-bats.
• Tim Bogar: 30 XBH, 491 at-bats.
• Chico Walker: 30 XBH, 440 at-bats.

None of those hitters would be considered a great, or even good hitter. Similarly, none of those hitters ever earned anything near $66 million or a comparable amount for the era in which they played.

Let's face it. Power hitters are going to suffer when they sign with or are traded to the Mets. Citi Field is the park where home runs go to die. However, the dimensions of the park should not do anything to a player's extra base-hit total or strikeout total. Apparently, Jason Bay never got that memo.

So if you still don't think Jason Bay should be booed at Citi Field, perhaps the reasons listed above might cause you to rethink your booing strategy. $66 million bought the Mets a plate at Jason Bay's all-you-can-K buffet. All you have to do is buy a ticket for far less than that to let Bay know that he hasn't been worth the price of a Happy Meal.

...And Now A Word From Our Joey

Greetings, Mets fans! It's your roving Studious Metsimus correspondent, Joey Beartran getting a moment on the laptop. I have a few things to say, so BEAR with me as I get a few things off my hoodie.

Before tonight's victory against the Braves, the Mets had dropped five consecutive games. The rest of the NL East was putting New York in its rearview mirror, just like I was doing in the photo above.

No starter had won a game in May and Little Jeffy Wilpon thought it necessary to have tea and crumpets with Goofus and Gallant. (Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel. I'll let you figure out which one is which.)

Then April's best pitcher took the hill in Atlanta and played stopper for the night. The Mets' Big Kahuna used his Big Cojones to pitch the Mets to a 3-2 victory over the Braves. The losing streak was finally over and the Mets were out of last place. Sounds like everything's peachy in Georgia, right? Not so fast!

The Mets still haven't had much contributions from their bottom three guys in the rotation. After Big Pelf and 'Han the Man, every other start this season has been made by Mr. Niese, Mr. Maine and El Perez-idente. Those three starters have combined for a grand total of TWO WINS this year!

Now Jonathon Niese is going to miss his next start due to his ailing hammy, John Maine is at the library searching for a copy of Throwing Strikes For Dummies and El Perez-idente has been impeached from the rotation.

R.A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi will be taking the spots of Niese and Perez, respectively and John Maine is going to have to speed read his way back to respectability. If the month of May ends with Pelfrey, Maine and the vultures in the bullpen continuing to pick up all of the victories, then the Mets and Braves might be renewing their rivalry, but this time it'll be to see who can stay out of last place instead of fighting for a division title.

Tonight's victory was great, but the Mets must do far more to get back in the good spirits of fans, similar to the way they felt during the eight-game winning streak in late April. Big Pelf put the Mets on his 6' 7" frame and carried them out of the cellar. Johan Santana will try to do the same tomorrow night. What will happen after that? It better be a victory or three from one of the other starters. If not, Little Jeffy Wilpon might be setting up the firing squad for Goofus and Gallant.

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But wait, there's more! If you can make it to the Two Boots location in the lower dining concourse of Grand Central Terminal at 7 PM on Tuesday, May 18 (that's tomorrow night!), you will be part of a Mets-tacular celebration! Some of the best Mets writers and bloggers will be on hand sharing their Mets-cellent views, stories and opinions on our beloved Metsies!

On hand will be Greg Prince (Faith and Fear In Flushing), Jon Springer (Mets By The Numbers), Josh Wilker (Cardboard Gods) and my Aunt Coop (My Summer Family)!!

If you bring a Mets baseball card, you can get a free beer. That's right! You'll be able to tell all your friends that Mets legends Tim Bogar and Mark Carreon paid for your beer. You can even bring in that Mel Rojas card that you threw darts at after he gave up that home run to Paul O'Neill.

Of course, yours truly and my Studious Metsimus colleague will be there. Hope you can be a part of Amazin' Tuesday at the Grand Central Terminal location of Two Boots!