Michael Conforto Could Join an Exclusive OBP Club

Make way for Michael Conforto, the OBP Machine!  (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

In Wednesday's 10-5 victory over the Colorado Rockies, Michael Conforto reached base twice in five plate appearances, holding his on-base percentage at an impressive .401.  Despite Conforto's inability to crack the starting lineup early on (he started just four of the team's first 15 games), his 359 plate appearances currently qualify him for all full-season leaderboards, and as such, allow him to rank seventh in the National League in OBP.

Should Conforto maintain his .400-plus on-base percentage and reach the minimum 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title (or OBP title), he would join a very exclusive club of Mets players to accomplish that feat.  In fact, during the team's first 55 seasons, only seven players have reached base in at least 40% of their plate appearances when they had a sufficient number of trips to the plate.

Rk	Player	Year	OBP	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SH	SF	BA	SLG	OPS
1	Cleon Jones	1969	.422	558	483	92	164	25	4	12	75	64	7	1	3	.340	.482	.904
2	Keith Hernandez	1984	.409	657	550	83	171	31	0	15	94	97	1	0	9	.311	.449	.859
3	Keith Hernandez	1986	.413	652	551	94	171	34	1	13	83	94	4	0	3	.310	.446	.859
4	Dave Magadan	1990	.417	541	451	74	148	28	6	6	72	74	2	4	10	.328	.457	.874
5	John Olerud	1997	.400	630	524	90	154	34	1	22	102	85	13	0	8	.294	.489	.889
6	John Olerud	1998	.447	665	557	91	197	36	4	22	93	96	4	1	7	.354	.551	.998
7	Rickey Henderson	1999	.423	526	438	89	138	30	0	12	42	82	2	1	3	.315	.466	.889
8	John Olerud	1999	.427	723	581	107	173	39	0	19	96	125	11	0	6	.298	.463	.890
9	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	.425	650	544	109	176	40	2	25	94	95	5	0	6	.324	.542	.967
10	David Wright	2007	.416	711	604	113	196	42	1	30	107	94	6	0	7	.325	.546	.963
11	Michael Conforto	2017	.401	359	302	61	89	19	1	21	56	47	8	0	2	.295	.573	.974

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/3/2017.

Cleon Jones became the first Met to do so in 1969, reaching base at a .422 clip and propelling the team to a World Series title.  It wasn't until the Mets' 23rd season that Jones had company in this formerly one-man club, as Keith Hernandez produced a .409 on-base percentage in 1984; the Mets' first 90-win season since Jones and his teammates won it all 15 years prior.

Hernandez repeated his .400-plus OBP feat two years later, when he helped the Mets take home their second World Series trophy.  Keith's fill-in at first base in the 1986 division clincher became the third Met to play a full season with an on-base percentage greater than .400, as Dave Magadan flirted with a batting title in 1990 before settling for third place in that race, but still managed to produce a lofty .417 OBP in 541 plate appearances.

After Magadan's one-year wonder campaign, the Mets played musical chairs at first base.  From 1991 to 1996, the Mets had a plethora of players who became their everyday first baseman, including Magadan himself in '91, future Hall of Famer Eddie Murray in '92 and '93, David Segui in '94, Rico Brogna in '95 and Butch Huskey in '96.  It wasn't until they made one of the most one-sided trades in club history that they found a starter for more than two seasons, and he became the team's all-time OBP king.

John Olerud was a Met for only three seasons, but he reached base at least 40% of the time in all three campaigns.  In 1997, he became the first Met with a .400 OBP over a full season in seven years.  He then followed it up with a .447 OBP in 1998, which remains a single-season franchise record, and a .427 OBP in 1999, when he helped the team advance to within two victories of a World Series berth.  His 1999 teammate, Rickey Henderson, didn't want Olerud to party alone in the .400 club, so he crossed the velvet rope and put up a .423 on-base percentage of his own.

A year after Olerud and Henderson became the team's first pair of .400 OBP players, they were both gone, as Olerud signed a free-agent contract to return home to Seattle and Henderson played his way out of New York, earning his release from the team in May.  But a new man took over the reins as the team's resident .400 on-base guy in 2000, as Edgardo Alfonzo posted a career-high .425 OBP in helping the team win its fourth National League pennant.

In the 16 seasons since Fonzie went over .400 in the OBP column, only one Met has joined him in the .400 club.  That would be David Wright, who in 2007 became the most recent player to achieve an on-base percentage of .400 or greater, as he reached base at a .416 clip for the 88-win Mets.

For the past ten seasons, Cleon Jones, Keith Hernandez, Dave Magadan, John Olerud, Rickey Henderson, Edgardo Alfonzo and David Wright have been the only seven players to post a .400 OBP over a season of at least 502 plate appearances.  Now Michael Conforto and his .401 on-base percentage are threatening to make this an eight-man club.  But one other thing stands out among the members of the .400 club that Conforto could have a tough time duplicating.

When Jones became the first Met to post a .400 OBP over a full season in 1969, he did so for a 100-win team.  Hernandez had his .400 seasons in 1984 and 1986 when the Mets won 90 and 108 games, respectively.  Magadan's 1990 campaign ended with 91 Mets victories, while Olerud's three .400 OBP seasons occurred during 88, 88 and 97-win campaigns.  (Rickey's season gave us 97 wins as well.)  When Fonzie did it, the Mets won 94 regular season games.  And Wright's high OBP helped the Mets win 88 games.

See a pattern forming there?  Every player who produced a .400 OBP over a full season played for a Mets team that finished with a winning record.  In fact, the worst record by a Mets team that had such a player was 88-74.  That's a far cry from the current Mets team, which is currently seven games under .500 at 49-56.

This year has been an anomaly for the Mets; a year in which the pitching has been the team's greatest disappointment when it was supposed to be an asset.  If Michael Conforto finishes the season with an on-base percentage above .400, it will be anomaly for another reason.  Barring a late-season push in the standings, it would mark the first time a Mets team employed a player with a .400-plus OBP and failed to produce a winning record.  Even with a surge in August and September, the team would be hard pressed to reach 88 victories; the minimum number of wins produced a Mets club that had a .400 OBP player.

Michael Conforto has been a steady presence in the field and at the plate.  He's also been a steady presence on the basepaths, reaching base more than 40% of the time in 2017.  However, his team hasn't been able to take advantage of his keen ability to not make outs.  The potential to join an exclusive seven-man club that includes several all-time Mets greats is a fine accomplishment.  It would be far better if Conforto could match Jones, Hernandez, Magadan, Olerud, Henderson, Alfonzo and Wright by joining that club while playing for a competitive Mets team.

The Walking's Dead

When Sandy Alderson came aboard as the Mets' general manager three years ago, he was known as an executive who encouraged his players to draw more walks.  More walks mean more base runners.  More base runners mean more runs.  And more runs mean more wins.  Additionally, taking more pitches causes the opposing starting pitcher to reach a high pitch count at an earlier stage of the game, causing him to exit the game earlier even if he's pitching fairly well.

But in 2013, the Mets had many more free swingers in their everyday lineup than they had in the past.  Players like Juan Lagares (20 walks in 421 plate appearances), Marlon Byrd (25 walks in 464 PA) and even Daniel Murphy (32 walks in 697 PA) spent more time trying to get four hits than four balls.  The end result was fewer big innings and fewer opposing pitchers being removed early.

Let's put this season's lack of patience at the plate in perspective.  There were only three players on the team who drew more than 40 bases on balls.  Those players were Lucas Duda (57 walks), David Wright (55 walks) and Ike Davis (55 walks).  Omar Quintanilla finished fourth on the team with 38 free passes.

Do you know when the last time was that the Mets had as little as three players draw 40 or more walks?  You'd have to go back to 2003, when Cliff Floyd (51 walks) and Ty Wigginton (46 walks) were the only two Mets to take ball four at least 40 times.  And for those who have a short memory, the Mets finished 66-95 in 2003 - the only year in the last two decades that the team finished with fewer than 70 victories (not including the strike-shortened 1994 and 1995 seasons).

Does that mean having fewer players drawing walks on a regular basis contributes to poor seasons?  Let me put on my mad statistician's cap (which is pretty much just a Mets cap with cat hair on it) and present to you some of my research.  Below is the list of seasons in which the Mets failed to have more than three players draw as many as 40 walks in a season (excluding all strike seasons).  Keep an eye on each team's final won-loss record, which is listed at the end of each line.

Year	Players With 40+ Walks	Record
1963	Duke Snider (56), Jim Hickman (44), Ron Hunt (40)	51-111
1964	Joe Christopher (48)	53-109
1965	Johnny Lewis (59), Bobby Klaus (45)	50-112
1967	Bud Harrelson (48), Ron Swoboda (41)	61-101
1968	Ron Swoboda (52), Jerry Grote (44)	73-89
1975	Rusty Staub (77), Wayne Garrett (50)	82-80
1983	Keith Hernandez (64), Ron Hodges (49), Darryl Strawberry (47)	68-94
1993	Bobby Bonilla (72), Howard Johnson (43), Eddie Murray (40)	59-103
1996	Todd Hundley (79), Bernard Gilkey (73)	71-91
2003	Cliff Floyd (51), Ty Wigginton (46)	66-95
2013	Lucas Duda (57), David Wright (55), Ike Davis (55)	74-88

There have been eleven seasons in Mets history in which three or fewer players were able to draw at least 40 walks.  The Mets failed to win 75 games in all but one of those seasons.  Their average record in those eleven campaigns was 64-98.

In case you think other factors were involved in those teams' lack of success, let's take a look at the walk totals for players on some of the most successful teams in franchise history.

The 1969 World Series champion Mets had five players who took 40 or more free passes (Cleon Jones, Tommie Agee, Bud Harrelson, Ron Swoboda, Wayne Garrett).  Seventeen years later, the 1986 champs were also able to produce five such hitters (Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, Gary Carter, Lenny Dykstra, Ray Knight).  In addition, seven other players on the '86 team walked 30 or more times.  But wait, there's more.

Half of the starting eight in 1988 walked 40 or more times, with three of them (Howard Johnson, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Magadan) drawing 60 or more bases on balls.

The 1999 squad had seven players with 40 or more walks.  Five of the seven reached base freely 60 times.  One year later, Benny Agbayani drew 54 walks.  That total would have led the 1964, 1967, 1968 and 2003 squads.  But in 2000, that was just the sixth-highest total on the team.

Finally, in 2006, David Wright was one of four Mets to make it to 40 walks.  His 66 bases on balls would have led most Mets teams.  But in 2006, that was only good for the bronze medal in the walk-a-lympics behind Carlos Delgado (74 walks - silver medal winner) and Carlos Beltran (95 walks - gold medal winner).

What do those six teams have in common besides having lots of players with lofty walk totals?  All six of them won 94 or more games and made it to the postseason.  And for those of you asking about the 1973 National League champion Mets - well, they also drew their share of walks, with four players reaching the 40-walk mark and three of those four surpassing 60.

Benny Agbayani showed a lot of life for someone who was a walker.

So let's recap.  Eleven teams in franchise history did not have more than three players draw 40 or more walks.  Ten of those teams finished with fewer than 75 victories and all eleven teams combined to finish 365 games under .500.

Meanwhile, the seven Mets teams to reach the postseason combined to produce a total of 35 players who walked 40 or more times.  Twenty-two of those 35 players drew 60-plus free passes.

Having many players with the capability and willingness to draw walks leads to more big innings.  If a team only has two or three players who can get on base regularly via the walk, that makes it more difficult to put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard because fewer players are drawing walks in the same inning.  That's not so hard to understand, is it?

When Sandy Alderson came on board following the 2010 season, he professed patience for his hitters.  In 2013, the Mets didn't listen to their professor, as most of the players adopted a "hack now, take pitches later" approach.  For anyone familiar with Mets history (or the chart ten paragraphs above), that approach is a recipe for disaster.  And that recipe has produced some of the worst seasons the team has ever seen.

The walking is dead at Citi Field.  And until more batters learn how to take ball four, nothing - especially pennants - will rise in Flushing.