Colón Blows Off Mets to Become Part of Braves' Quadragenarian Effort

Bartolo Colón will be taking his big sexiness down south for the 2017 season.  According to multiple reports, the fan-favorite former Met has signed a one-year deal worth $12.5 million to pitch for the Atlanta Braves.

This comes just a day after the Braves signed another 40-something one-time Met in R.A. Dickey, giving Atlanta the two oldest pitchers in baseball.  (The only non-pitcher older than Dickey is Ichiro Suzuki.)

The two signings also give hope to pitchers such as Scott Atchison (Atchison spent the 2016 season as a Cleveland Indians' advanced coach and staff assistant) that they can still play for a major league team, although in all honesty, Atchison may be out of the Braves' age range.

With Atlanta opening up its new ballpark next season, perhaps they're looking to put fannies in the seats with a bunch of quadragenarian players, especially now that soon-to-be 40-year-old catcher A.J. Pierzynski has retired.  But why stop there?  Why not bring back 58-year-old utility man Julio Franco, who in 5½ seasons with the Braves (2001-05, second half of 2007) put up an incredible .291/.363/.424 slash line in nearly 1,400 plate appearances - all while he was in his mid-to-late 40s.  Or better yet, how about franchise legend Phil Niekro?  He'll be 78 by Opening Day, but he's a knuckleballer, and you know that knucklers can pitch much later in life than their hard-throwing brethren can.  Plus, it would give Dickey a close friend on the team.

But in all seriousness, there was no way Sandy Alderson was going to commit $12.5 million to Colón in his age-44 season when he didn't give that to him in any of Colón's three seasons with the Mets.  As good and as entertaining as Colón was as a Met from 2014 to 2016, the Mets needed to pay him less than that amount if they wanted to keep players such as Yoenis Céspedes around.

The emergence of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman has given the Mets hope, albeit in a small sample size, that they still have some kind of depth in the starting pitcher department in the event that the Fab Five of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler never materializes because of their constant injury issues.

If the Mets use the money they would have given to Colón to sweeten the pot for Céspedes and he ends up re-signing with the team, then great.  We'll miss Bart, but we'd have missed Yo more.  If one or all of the starting five miss a significant part of the season, then oops, the Mets will have crapped their pants; Colón blowing off the team for the money in Atlanta will come back to haunt New York.

The Mets begin the 2017 season at Citi Field next year.  Their opponent will be the Atlanta Braves.  More than likely, the Opening Day starter for the Braves will be Met-killer Julio Teheran.  But don't be surprised if Bartolo Colón and R.A. Dickey start the other two games of the series.  And you also shouldn't be surprised if the fans give both pitchers the same kind of welcome that Mike Piazza received when he returned to Flushing for the first time as a former Met in 2006.

I just hope both pitchers don't become Met-killers themselves, regardless of their Atchisonian age.

I have faith that the Mets will not make these SNL references come true.  Ya gotta believe, right?

Mets Already Have Enough Offense to Win 90+ Games

There's a veritable All-Star team of unsigned free agent hitters heading into the new year.  Players like Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Denard Span, Dexter Fowler and yes, even Yoenis Cespedes are still available for any team to sign.  The Mets have signed two free agents in shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Alejandro De Aza.  They also traded for second baseman Neil Walker.

All signs point to the Mets being done as far as bringing in another big-name hitter is concerned.  This has made a number of Mets fans unhappy, as they claim that the team is not much better than it was last spring and early summer, when it struggled to stay above .500 until Sandy Alderson acquired Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cespedes.  But I disagree with those complaining fans.  In fact, as long as the Mets don't have a 1987-like epidemic of injuries to their pitchers, the team as constructed today should surpass last season's 90-win total.  Here's why.

Three men and a beanie.  (Screen shot courtesy of ESPN E:60)

In 2015, the brilliant quartet of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz combined to start 89 of the team's 162 games.  The Mets' record in those games was 55-34.  When someone other than the fearsome foursome started, the team went 35-38.  But several of those games occurred after Michael Conforto was promoted from the minors, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe were acquired and most importantly, Yoenis Cespedes was brought into the fold.  Once those four hitters joined the team, the team's offense was far better.

Conforto made his major league debut on July 24.  Johnson and Uribe made their first appearances with the Mets a day later.  And Cespedes wore blue and orange for the first time on August 1.  The day before Conforto made his debut, the Mets' record was 49-47.  So let's look at how the team fared in those 96 pre-offensive upgrade games when deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz were on the mound and compare it to how they did in the team's final 66 games.  Let's also see what the club's record was when the other starting pitchers (Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, etc.) took the hill in both instances.

• Jacob deGrom - First 96 games: (11-7);  Last 66 games: (9-3)
• Matt Harvey - First 96 games: (10-8);  Last 66 games: (7-4)
• Noah Syndergaard - First 96 games: (6-7);  Last 66 games: (7-4)
• Steven Matz - First 96 games: (2-0);  Last 66 games: (3-1)

In the days before Conforto, Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes were on the team, the young core of homegrown starting pitchers combined to start 51 of the club's 96 games.  The Mets had a 29-22 record in those games, for a .569 winning percentage.  The team did not fare as well when the other starters were on the mound in the first 96 games, going 20-25 (.444 winning percentage) in those 45 contests.

In the final 66 games, when the offense was among the best in the game, the Mets went 26-12 in games started by deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz.  They also had a winning record in games not started by those four hurlers, going 15-13 in those 28 affairs.

Think about that for a moment.  The Mets were 90-72 during the 2015 regular season.  That's a .556 winning percentage.  Yet through July 24, when the likes of Michael Cuddyer, Eric Campbell, John Mayberry Jr., Darrell Ceciliani and Kevin Plawecki were starting games regularly, the team had a .569 winning percentage when deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz started games with those offensively-challenged players in the lineup.  That's a 92-win pace.

After starting just 89 games for the Mets in 2015, the big four may combine to start around 120 games for the team in 2016, with deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard no longer having innings limits, which could allow them to make 32 or 33 starts each.  Although Cabrera, Walker and De Aza are not going to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers the way Cespedes did in August and September, those three players are clearly better with the bat than Campbell, Cuddyer and Mayberry were during the first four months of the 2015 campaign.

(Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports)

While it's true that Daniel Murphy is no longer a Met, don't forget that Michael Conforto is going be a Met for the entire 2016 season instead of just the final third of the campaign as he was in 2015.  Conforto should hit for a high average, have more power and draw more walks than Murphy did (Conforto drew 57 walks in 597 plate appearances between the majors and minors in 2015; Murphy never walked more than 39 times in any season).  And also don't forget that Syndergaard and Matz didn't begin the year with the Mets either.  They're both poised to begin their first full season in New York in 2016.

So let's review.

When deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz started games for the Mets in 2015 with their offensively-challenged lineup backing them up, the team won nearly 57% of its games.  But they only started 51 of the team's first 96 games, or barely more than half of those games.  Now, barring unexpected injuries, those four pitchers are going to start 80% of the team's games in 2016, with Zack Wheeler ready to contribute by mid-season.  The offense doesn't have the Daniel Murphys and Yoenis Cespedeses of this world, but it will have a full season of Conforto, as well as Cabrera, Walker and De Aza taking at-bats that would have gone to lesser hitters during the first four months of the 2015 campaign.

Just repeating the .569 winning percentage the Mets had in starts made by deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz during the pre-Cespedes portion of 2015 would give the team 92 wins in 2016.  But more starts from those four pitchers in 2016, plus Zack Wheeler's return, which makes the bullpen deeper once Bartolo Colon moves there, added to a full season of Michael Conforto's production, while subtracting Cuddyer, Campbell, Mayberry, et al., from the equation should give the Mets a wonderful chance to have a higher win total than they did when they captured the N.L. East crown by seven games in 2015.

So you see, the Mets don't need to add any more top bats to what some people still consider a weak lineup.  They already have what it takes to improve upon last season's memorable performance and make another triumphant return to the postseason.

A Tale of Two Michaels: Should The Mets Have Gone For Morse Instead of Cuddyer?

Michael Morse will be dancing to A-Ha in 2015, but not at Citi Field.  (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

In early November, the Mets pulled off a stunningly quick free agent signing, inking Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21 million contract to play the outfield and fill in for Lucas Duda at first base whenever a tough left-handed pitcher was facing New York.  The Mets made this move even though they knew they would have to part ways with their first round draft pick in 2015, as Cuddyer was given a qualifying offer by his former employers in Colorado that he chose not to accept.  The signing reunites Cuddyer with his childhood friend, David Wright, as the two All-Stars grew up near each other in Virginia.

Cuddyer has an injury history, played his last three seasons in the thin air of the Mile High city and will be 36 years old by the time the curtains open on the 2015 season.  Clearly, there are lots of question marks with this deal, but if Cuddyer stays healthy, he should still be a serviceable player who will make positive offensive contributions to the team.  With that being said, why didn't the Mets make a stronger push for a fellow Michael who just won a World Series ring in San Francisco?

Michael Morse is coming off a season in which he missed 31 games.  However, he still managed to produce 32 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 61 RBI in 438 at-bats, averaging an extra-base hit every 8.6 at-bats.  In doing so, Morse was one of just six players in the majors who had at least 50 extra-base hits in fewer than 500 plate appearances.  Morse's .811 OPS was quite good in a season where just nine National League players posted an OPS of .850 or higher.

In three seasons with the Rockies, Cuddyer produced an .886 OPS.  However, that number was clearly inflated by playing his home games at Coors Field.  From 2012 to 2014, Cuddyer's OPS at home (.984) was far superior to his road OPS (.795).  His OPS on the road while with the Rockies was very similar to the overall .794 OPS he posted in 11 seasons with Minnesota, leading one to believe that he will produce around the same figure with the Mets.  Morse, on the other hand, has played the majority of his career in home parks that are not among the best for sluggers (Safeco Field, Nationals Park, AT&T Park).  However, he has been very consistent at home and on the road, posting an .809 lifetime OPS in his home parks, while producing an .807 OPS on the road

Going back to Cuddyer's injury history, the new member of the Mets has played 140 or more games in a season just four times since making his major league debut in 2001.  And since 2011, Cuddyer has missed a total of 229 games.  Morse is not the healthiest of players either, surpassing 130 games played just twice since becoming a regular player in 2010.  However, Morse has missed "only" 181 games since 2011, meaning he remains on the field more than Cuddyer does.

When considering what a player - especially one who is injury-prone - would do over the course of a full season, a valuable tool to use is baseball-reference.com's "per 162 games" stat.  Let's look at what Cuddyer and Morse have done per 162 games since both became everyday players in the big leagues.

• Cuddyer (since 2004): .280 BA, .468 SLG, .816 OPS, 37 doubles, 22 HR, 89 RBI
• Morse (since 2010): .279 BA, .479 SLG, .816 OPS, 32 doubles, 27 HR, 83 RBI

Basically, they're the same player when healthy.  But Cuddyer (born March 27, 1979) is three years older than Morse (born March 22, 1982) and could be on the decline sooner than Morse, especially now that he's left the thin-aired confines of Coors Field.

Now let's consider what Cuddyer has done against the NL East teams he will now be playing more regularly and compare that to what Morse has done against the same teams.  Since Cuddyer has less experience playing National League teams than Morse does, we will only consider non-cumulative stats for both players.

• Cuddyer (vs. ATL, MIA, PHI, WAS): .302 BA, .484 SLG, .846 OPS
• Morse (vs. ATL, MIA, PHI, WAS): .307 BA, .512 SLG, .870 OPS

Unlike the "per 162 games" stat, in this case Morse clearly has an edge over Cuddyer.  The experience factor (all but 612 of Morse's 2,296 career at-bats have come as a National League player) also gives Morse an advantage over Cuddyer, who spent over a decade in Minnesota.

Finally, and this has always been important in the Sandy Alderson scheme of things, Michael Morse was not given a qualifying offer by the Giants when his contract expired at the end of the 2014 season.  Therefore, had the Mets chosen to sign Morse, they would not have lost their first round draft pick next season as they did when they signed Cuddyer.  Furthermore, Cuddyer was finishing up a three-year, $31.5 million deal with the Rockies, meaning the Mets were going to have to dole out over $10 million per season to a player of Cuddyer's talent and experience, even with his recent injury history.  Meanwhile, Morse was coming off a one-year, $6 million deal with the Giants, just one season after finishing off a two-year, $10.5 million contract originally signed with Washington in 2012 (Morse was later traded to Seattle and Baltimore during those two seasons).  Given Morse's injury history, he probably would not command more than a two-year deal.  However, his average annual value would certainly not exceed $10 million per season.  Perhaps a two-year, $18 million contract would have been enough to lure him to Flushing.

So let's summarize.  Cuddyer is three years older than Morse, has similar offensive production to Morse (per 162 games) and is coming off a three-year stay in hitter-friendly Colorado to play at sea level in New York.  And although Cuddyer hits well against his new division rivals, Morse's numbers are better against those teams and Morse has more experience playing those clubs.  Oh, and lest we forget, Morse would probably have had a lower price tag than Cuddyer and would not have cost the Mets next year's first round draft pick - a pick they could have given up for another quality player in addition to Morse.

David Wright and Michael Cuddyer are friends.  So it's entirely possible Wright had a big say in the team's hasty decision to sign Cuddyer.  But had the team waited it out a little longer, they could have come up with a better deal in the still-unsigned Michael Morse.  Like Cuddyer, Morse is a right-handed hitting outfielder who has experience at first base and could play there in place of Lucas Duda whenever a tough lefty was on the mound.  But the Mets decided Cuddyer would be a better fit for the team.  Let's just hope Morse doesn't turn into a good fit for one of the Mets' main rivals.
 

Bartolo Colon Is Always In Control

Photo by Jeff Chiu/AP

With Matt Harvey sidelined for the 2014 season, the Mets needed to add a quality arm to the starting rotation.  Today they got their man, as the team signed veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon to a two-year, $20 million contract.

Colon has been an excellent pitcher for a decade and a half.  He has a 189-128 record in the major leagues with a 3.94 ERA and 1,950 strikeouts in just under 2,600 innings.  Colon is a three-time All-Star who has four top-six Cy Young Award finishes on his résumé.  He has also had five years with 18 or more wins, including this past season, when he went 18-6 for the AL West champion Oakland A's.  Just seven pitchers have ever won as many as 18 games in a season for the Mets and only Tom Seaver (six times), Dwight Gooden (three times) and Jerry Koosman (two times) have ever accomplished the feat more than once as a Met.

It's true that Bartolo Colon will be 41 next May.  It's also true that last season was the first time since 2005 that Colon made as many as 30 starts in a season.  But when Colon is on the mound, he gives his team something that very few pitchers can provide.  He hardly ever walks a batter.  Ever.  And over the past two seasons, his pinpoint control has put him in a special class.

In 2012, Colon made 24 starts for the A's.  He walked 23 batters.  In 2013, Colon took the hill 30 times, walking just 29 batters.  That's two straight seasons in which Colon has had more starts than walks.  How rare is it for a pitcher to do that in consecutive years?  Well, the last pitcher to do it was Greg Maddux in 2007 (34 starts, 25 walks) and 2008 (33 starts, 30 walks) and he's up for Hall of Fame consideration next month.

There has never been a Mets pitcher who has posted back-to-back seasons with more starts than walks.  In fact, since the Mets came into existence in 1962, only three pitchers have ever completed a season of 20 starts or more with fewer walks than starts.  Those pitchers are Ed Lynch (1985), Bret Saberhagen (1994) and Rick Reed (1998, 2001).

Bartolo Colon brings a lot of experience and talent to the mound.  He also brings a lot of control.  Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler combined to walk 141 batters in 73 starts, an average of almost two walks per start.  Colon has averaged less than one walk per start over the last two years.

Control is contagious.  Or at least that's what the Mets hope for now that Bartolo Colon is on the staff.  His fellow moundsmen will certainly benefit from having a teammate who's always in complete control.

Curtis Granderson Is About To Join An Exclusive Club

Photo by Paul J. Bereswill

I am on board with Curtis Granderson becoming an outfielder for the Mets over the next four seasons.  But not everyone is.  So I decided to generate a chart that lists all the players in baseball history who have produced 200 doubles, 200 homers, 80 triples and 100 stolen bases in their respective careers.

For the record, Curtis Granderson's first double for the Mets will be the 200th in his career.  When he gets it, he will join this group of players in the 200 double, 200 homer, 80 triple, 100 steal club.  See if you recognize any of the names listed below.

Rk	Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Hank Aaron	3298	12364	2175	3771	624	98	755	2297	239	.305	.374	.555	.929
2	Willie Mays	2992	10881	2060	3283	523	140	660	1903	336	.302	.384	.557	.942
3	Dave Winfield	2973	11003	1669	3110	540	88	465	1833	223	.283	.353	.475	.827
4	Robin Yount	2856	11008	1632	3142	583	126	251	1406	271	.285	.342	.430	.772
5	George Brett	2707	10349	1583	3154	665	137	317	1596	201	.305	.369	.487	.857
6	Paul Molitor	2683	10835	1782	3319	605	114	234	1307	504	.306	.369	.448	.817
7	Joe Morgan	2649	9277	1650	2517	449	96	268	1133	689	.271	.392	.427	.819
8	Andre Dawson	2627	9927	1373	2774	503	98	438	1591	314	.279	.323	.482	.806
9	Steve Finley	2583	9397	1443	2548	449	124	304	1167	320	.271	.332	.442	.775
10	Johnny Damon	2490	9736	1668	2769	522	109	235	1139	408	.284	.352	.433	.785
11	Vada Pinson	2470	9644	1365	2757	485	127	256	1169	305	.286	.327	.442	.769
12	Babe Ruth	2457	8297	2156	2842	495	135	710	2193	123	.343	.475	.691	1.167
13	Roberto Alomar	2379	9073	1508	2724	504	80	210	1134	474	.300	.371	.443	.814
14	Goose Goslin	2287	8658	1482	2735	500	173	248	1619	175	.316	.387	.500	.887
15	Rogers Hornsby	2241	8115	1574	2916	539	169	301	1460	135	.359	.435	.579	1.014
16	Lou Gehrig	2164	8000	1888	2721	534	163	493	1997	102	.340	.448	.633	1.080
17	Curtis Granderson	1187	4438	780	1157	199	80	217	606	122	.261	.340	.488	.828

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/7/2013.

Thirteen of the players listed above are in the Hall of Fame.  Three others (Steve Finley, Johnny Damon, Vada Pinson) had outstanding careers that warranted Hall of Fame consideration.  The 17th member of that group - once he legs out his first two-bagger for the Mets - is Curtis Granderson.  And if he gets that double before his 13th game with the team, he will have joined that exclusive club before playing in his 1,200th career game.  Everyone else on the list played in at least 2,164 games.

Granderson already has as many triples and just seven fewer homers than Roberto Alomar, who is one of the players on the list.  Another player on the list (Lou Gehrig) had 20 fewer stolen bases than Granderson already has.  In addition, Granderson's on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS (.340/.488/.828) are all higher than the numbers put up by Hall of Famer Andre Dawson (.323/.482/.806). And his .488 slugging percentage is higher than ten of the 16 other players on the list.

Many home run hitters can produce doubles.  But they don't usually don't have the speed to leg out triples or steal bases.  Similarly, great triples hitters who also steal bases aren't usually among the league's best power hitters.  That's why only 16 players have ever produced 200 doubles, 200 homers, 80 triples and 100 stolen bases in their careers.  That's also why all but three of those players have their plaques hanging in Cooperstown.

Curtis Granderson is about to become the 17th player to reach those career marks.  And now he has four years to add to those numbers as a member of the New York Mets.  Get used to it, Mets fans.  Come March 31st, you'll be cheering for a very special player.

What Would Jose Reyes Think of the Jacoby Ellsbury Deal?

In a move that took this blogger by surprise, the Yankees and Jacoby Ellsbury agreed to a seven-year, $153 million deal, with an eighth year option that would increase the value of the contract to $169 million.  It would also take Ellsbury to his age 38 season.  That price tag seems a little high for a player who’s already in his 30s and whose main asset is his speed.  But it’s also much higher than what Jose Reyes got when he became a free agent following the 2011 season.  In fact, I wonder what Reyes is thinking right now.

When Reyes became a free agent two years ago, he was scooped up by the Miami Marlins for six years and $106 million.  If Ellsbury’s option year is picked up, he will be earning $63 million more than Reyes.  There are many reasons Reyes should be upset with this.

"How come Ellsbury got all that money and I didn't?"

One of the reasons why Reyes’ value wasn’t as high as it could have been was because he was considered injury prone.  In his final year with the Mets, he was placed on the disabled list twice and he also missed the majority of the 2003, 2004 and 2009 seasons because of various injuries.  But Ellsbury missed a total of 264 games from 2010 to 2013 – the equivalent of almost two full seasons in a four-year span.  Ellsbury spent just as much time on the disabled list as Reyes did, if not more.

Reyes was just 28 when he signed his nine-figure deal with the Marlins.  In other words, he was just entering his prime and would only be committed to Miami (and now Toronto) until he was 34.  Ellsbury has already entered his 30s and will only be halfway through his deal with the Yankees by the time he turns 34.  On the date of his 34^th birthday (September 11, 2017), Ellsbury will still be owed over $80 million, or about three-quarters of the entire amount of Reyes’ contract.

Ellsbury has played seven years in the major leagues, playing in just over 700 games.  In those seven seasons, Ellsbury has a .297 batting average and a .350 on-base percentage, numbers which were slightly higher than what Reyes produced in his first seven seasons with the Mets (.286 average, .337 OBP).  But Ellsbury doesn’t come close to Reyes in extra-base hits, runs scored and stolen bases – categories that are normally associated with speedsters and leadoff hitters.  In his first seven seasons in the big leagues, Reyes had 47 more extra-base hits, scored 75 more runs and stole 60 more bases than Ellsbury did in his first seven years.  Think about that for a moment.  Ellsbury has won three American League stolen base titles, averaging 57.3 steals in those three campaigns.  That’s still fewer stolen bases than the difference between him (241 SB in seven seasons) and Reyes (301 SB in his first seven seasons) at the start of their respective careers.

And last but not least, Reyes won a batting title in his final year before becoming a free agent.  He also scored 101 runs despite his two stints on the disabled list in 2011.  Meanwhile, Ellsbury has never won a batting title and has only scored 100 or more runs in a season once in his career.  Once.  A leadoff hitter with an explosive offense behind him has only had one season in which he crossed the plate 100 times.  And in that season (2011), he needed to drive himself in 32 times, as he hit that many home runs in what is now widely considered to be a fluke power season.  Ellsbury never managed to reach double digits in home runs in any of his other six major league seasons.  Reyes did it four times in a five-year span from 2006 to 2010.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a great major league player.  But he’s also a player who will turn 31 during the 2014 season, has only scored 100 or more runs as a leadoff hitter once in seven seasons, and has regularly suffered injuries that have caused him to miss months at a time.  If Ellsbury is worth up to $63 million more than Jose Reyes was two years ago when he was only 28 and coming off a season in which he won a batting title, then imagine what Reyes is feeling right now.

He certainly can’t be too happy about it.

Omar Infante Could Be A Smart Pickup For The Mets

Jhonny Peralta has signed a four-year, $52 million contract to play shortstop for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Stephen Drew is still out there, but is surprisingly not getting much attention. (Injury history, anyone?)  Ben Zobrist could be traded for, but Tampa Bay really loves him and would more than likely ask for a king's ransom in exchange for Zobrist.

But there is one veteran middle infielder out there who isn't getting much attention, but he should be getting lots of attention from the Mets.  That infielder is Omar Infante.  And despite the fact that he's played only 225 games at shortstop in his career (he's played over 700 games at second base), he might be the guy to target for the vacant shortstop position at Citi Field.

It would certainly not be considered baby steps for the Mets if they chose to sign Omar Infante.

Omar Infante has played 12 seasons in the major leagues, but is still relatively young (he'll be 32 in December).  He became a regular in the big leagues in his third season, when he hit .264 with 27 doubles, 16 homers, 55 RBI and 13 stolen bases for the Tigers.  But his first go-round in Detroit didn't end well, and he was traded to the Cubs, who traded him to the Braves prior to the 2008 season.

In Atlanta, Infante became an All-Star.  He also quietly became one of the best contact hitters in the game.  From 2008 to 2010, Infante hit .309 for the Braves, striking out just 134 times in over 1,000 plate appearances.  But he didn't hit for much power or steal many bases for the Braves, so Atlanta decided to move him to the Marlins for power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla.

Infante hit with more power and stole more bases in 2012, splitting the season between Miami and Detroit.  Although his average dipped to .274, he hit 12 home runs, drove in 53 runs and stole a career-high 17 bases for the Marlins and Tigers.  He also legged out seven triples and produced his first 30-double campaign.

In 2013, Infante overcame a mid-season injury that kept him out of the lineup for six weeks.  Had he not been hurt, he might have had his best season yet.  Infante played in 118 games for the AL Central division champion Tigers, batting .318 with 24 doubles, 10 HR and 51 RBI.  Had he not been hurt, he probably would have surpassed his 30-double, 12-HR, 53-RBI totals from 2012.  He also would've finished fourth in the American League batting race had he qualified for it, as his 476 plate appearances kept him 26 short of being considered among the leaders in batting average.

So why am I making such a big deal about a soon-to-be 32-year-old middle infielder being a smart pickup for the Mets to take over at short?  One reason is economical.  The other is all about the ballpark.

Omar Infante made just $4 million as a member of the Tigers in 2013.  The two-year, $8 million contract he signed with the Marlins after the 2011 campaign was the richest he had ever agreed to.  That means he'd be a cheap signing for the Mets, as they could give him two years for less money than the Cardinals are committing to Jhonny Peralta per season.  Signing Infante would also leave approximately $15-$20 million for Sandy Alderson to spend on a starting pitcher and another outfielder.  Had they signed Peralta or continued to be in the mix for Stephen Drew, that dollar amount would be far smaller, as would the talent level of the players Alderson would have to settle for.

It wouldn't be that much of a stretch to think Omar Infante could be a fine player at Citi Field.

The main reason why Infante would be a wise choice for the Mets is because of the ballpark he would call home for 81 games a year.  Do you know which opposing player has the highest batting average at Citi Field for all players who have played at least 15 games there?  Would you believe the answer is Omar Infante?  And we're not even talking about a small sample size, as the players with the second and third highest batting averages for visiting players at Citi Field (Matt Kemp, Reed Johnson) combined have 14 fewer at-bats at the park than Infante has by himself.

In 117 career at-bats at Citi Field, Infante is a .402 hitter, picking up 47 hits in 30 games (27 starts).  Infante has 11 extra-base hits, 13 RBI and 17 runs scored at the Mets' home ballpark.  His batting average is nearly 100 points higher than the Met with the highest average at Citi Field (Jose Reyes hit .319 at the park before joining the Marlins in 2012).

Infante also has the second-most number of hits of any opposing player at Citi Field, four behind Jimmy Rollins, who has 47 more at-bats than Infante has at the ballpark.  And for a player who is not a slugger and isn't among the league leaders in walks, Infante's .995 OPS at Citi Field has been bested by just two players, Joey Votto and Matt Kemp, both of whom are considered to be among the best players in the game.  The Met with the highest OPS at Citi Field is David Wright, but his .842 mark is nowhere near Infante's OPS.

Mets fans have been waiting for years for Sandy Alderson to make a splash in the free agent market.  But it's not always the free agent with the highest price tag that has the biggest positive impact on the team.  Sometimes, it's the smart move that pushes a team in the right direction (see Red Sox, Boston, circa 2013).  Omar Infante isn't a sexy signing.  But he'd sure be a smart one.  And he may just be the right guy at short and the player who would give the Mets the most bang for their buck in 2014.
 

The Corey Hart Conundrum

Earlier today, while I was perusing through various Mets blogs, I came across this recent post by Kirk Cahill on Mets Merized Online.  I actually hadn't been thinking much about the Mets potentially signing Corey Hart, but after reading Señor Cahill's piece, I now have to consider him as one of the players Sandy Alderson should definitely be looking at this offseason.

Corey Hart has been a top-notch player for the Milwaukee Brewers for many years.  He has also been somewhat of a silent Met killer.  Whereas players such as Chipper Jones and Pat Burrell tormented the Mets with dozens of home runs, Corey Hart found other ways to beat the Mets.  For example, in 2008, Hart almost single-handedly defeated the Mets in a game won by the Brewers at Shea Stadium.  Hart went 4-for-5 in the game, igniting a four-run game-tying rally in the fourth inning.  Two innings later, Hart had a run-scoring single that gave the Brewers their eighth run of the game.  The hit proved to be the game-winner in Milwaukee's 9-7 victory over the Mets.  And for those with short memories, the Brewers finished one game ahead of the Mets for the wild card in 2008.

Two years later, Hart demolished the Mets, driving in a dozen runs against New York in just seven games.  Hart delivered a two-run, walk-off homer off Mets' reliever Ryota Igarashi to break a scoreless tie on May 28, then followed it up with a six-RBI performance the next day, which included a grand slam off Oliver Perez.  Finally, during the season's last week, Hart helped end the Mets' chase for a .500 record.  On September 29, the Mets stood two games under .500 with six games to play.  After spotting the Brewers a 6-0 cushion in the first game of a doubleheader at Citi Field (Hart drove in the first run in the Brewers' six-run third inning), the Mets roared back to take a 7-6 lead.  But with the Mets just four outs away from claiming a dramatic come-from-behind victory and putting themselves a game under the .500 mark, Corey Hart delivered a game-tying RBI single, then scored the go-ahead run two batters later in the Brewers' 8-7 victory.

Unlike Chipper Jones and Pat Burrell, Corey Hart has only hit six home runs against the Mets.  But in 30 starts against New York, Hart has delivered 12 extra-base hits, scored 24 runs and driven in 24.  He's also been a .303 career hitter versus the Mets (Hart has a lifetime .277 batting average) and has delivered in the clutch repeatedly at Miller Park, Shea Stadium and Citi Field.  So signing Hart would obviously turn a Met killer into a Met.  But a Hart signing would do much more than just take away a potential lethal bat against the Mets' staff.

Hart can play two defensive positions - first base and right field.  Although much of his time in the majors has been spent playing right, Hart transitioned into Milwaukee's first baseman in 2012 after Prince Fielder moved on to Detroit.  Hart is not a smooth fielder, as evidenced by his -1.3 defensive WAR in 2012.  But that's still better than Lucas Duda's -2.1 dWAR from last season.  Hart's dWAR would place him smack dab in the middle of Duda's dWAR and Ike Davis' -0.6 dWAR from 2013.

Now you may have noticed that I've been comparing Duda and Davis' numbers from last year to Corey Hart's defensive metrics from 2012.  That's because Hart missed the entire 2013 season recovering from surgeries performed on both of his knees.  And you know what that means.  It means Corey Hart is the classic Sandy Alderson player, meaning he won't be expensive, he could be a "high-reward" player (a la Marlon Byrd) and can be dealt at the trade deadline if the team doesn't compete.  Of course, if they do compete, Hart could be one of the main contributors to the team's success.

In his last three healthy seasons (2010-2012), Hart's average slash line was .279/.343/.514.  Hart also averaged 31 doubles, four triples, 29 homers, 83 RBI and 87 runs scored.  No Mets player - not even David Wright - has posted a .514 slugging percentage over the last three seasons.  The last Met to even come close was Carlos Beltran, who slugged .510 from 2007 to 2009.  And the only players to hit as many as 29 homers over the past five seasons were Wright (29 HR in 2010) and Ike Davis (32 HR in 2012).

The Mets need outfielders.  They could also use a first baseman.  And they also need to give smart contracts to players.  They can have it all in Corey Hart.  Would they be taking a chance signing a player with recent knee problems?  Absolutely.  But if that player's knees hold up, would that chance be worth it?  You betcha!  That's the Corey Hart conundrum.  And it'll be up to Sandy Alderson to see if it's a conundrum worth solving.
 

Bourn To Run (In Cleveland)

Maybe Justin Turner can play the outfield at Citi Field now that Michael Bourn will not.

It looks like the Mets will be keeping their 11th pick in the 2013 amateur draft after all.  Reports are flooding Twitter that former Braves outfielder Michael Bourn has agreed to a four-year, $48 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  The deal includes a vesting option that could make the deal worth $60 million over five years.

Cleveland has been very active recently signing reclamation projects.  They have added Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jason Giambi over the past few days, to name a few.  But Bourn is far from being a reclamation project.  Bourn will join new acquisition Nick Swisher in the outfield to give the Indians a nice blend of power, speed and douchiness.

The Mets will now be left with David Wright as the team's main speed threat and no outfielders with any significant major league experience.  But at least they got rid of Jason Bay, eh?

The Real Reason Why The Mets Should Bring Back Scott Hairston

Earlier this week, I wrote a humor piece on the real reason why the Yankees want Scott Hairston.  Today, I felt like shifting gears.  The Yankees may secretly want Scott Hairston because they still long for Joe Torre, or someone who looks like him, but the Mets should make no secret about why they should re-sign Scott Hairston.  All they have to do is read their team history books for the reason why.

This site has reported in the past that Scott Hairston set a team record by finishing the season with at least 20 homers and 20 doubles in only 377 at-bats.  Only Mike Piazza had reached the 20/20 mark in both figures in fewer than 400 at-bats prior to Hairston.  (Piazza accomplished the feat in 1998 when he compiled 394 at-bats after his trade to the Mets.)

Hairston's record came on the heels of a 2011 season in which he collected 16 extra-base hits (eight doubles, one triple, seven home runs) in 132 at-bats.  With 48 extra-base hits in 2012 (25 doubles, three triples, 20 homers), Hairston now has accumulated 64 extra-base hits in only 509 at-bats as a Met, meaning he's collected an extra-base hit in 12.57% of his at-bats.

That got me thinking.  How many other Mets players over the years have gotten an extra-base hit in at least 10% of their at-bats?  Not many.  And who has the highest percentage?  I think you can figure that out by the title of this post.

 

Player	Extra-Base Hits	At-Bats	Percentage
Scott Hairston	64	509	12.57%
Mike Cameron	98	801	12.23%
Darryl Strawberry	469	3903	12.02%
Carlos Beltran	374	3133	11.94%
Mike Piazza	415	3478	11.93%
Carlos Delgado	207	1754	11.80%
David Wright	545	4742	11.49%
Bobby Bonilla	201	1779	11.30%
Rico Brogna	89	814	10.93%
Jose Valentin	60	550	10.91%
Ike Davis	127	1171	10.85%
Cliff Floyd	178	1643	10.83%
Bernard Gilkey	146	1353	10.79%
Howard Johnson	424	3968	10.69%
John Olerud	177	1662	10.65%
Ramon Castro	74	701	10.56%
Robin Ventura	159	1513	10.51%
Ty Wigginton	104	1001	10.39%

Only 18 players in team history (min. 500 at-bats) have collected an extra-base hit in at least 10% of their at-bats.  Some of the team's all-time greats are there (Darryl Strawberry, Carlos Beltran, Mike Piazza, Howard Johnson), as is one of the team's least popular players (Bobby Bonilla).  In addition, there are fan-favorites who had short careers in New York (Rico Brogna, John Olerud, Ty Wigginton), as well as current players (David Wright, Ike Davis).

All of those players were exceptional when it came to getting extra-base hits in a Mets uniform.  And all of those players have a lower percentage than the team's all-time leader in extra-base hit percentage, Scott Hairston.

When some of the team's greatest hitters such as Jose Reyes (402 XBH in 4,453 AB), Edgardo Alfonzo (346 XBH in 3,897 AB), Cleon Jones (308 XBH in 4,223 AB) and Keith Hernandez (249 XBH in 3,164 AB) fail to make this type of list, you can imagine how exclusive it is.

The numbers don't lie.  No player in Mets history with at least 500 at-bats has given the team a better chance at collecting an extra-base hit than Scott Hairston.

And yet despite this, the Mets are reluctant to offer Hairston anything more than a one-year deal, even though Kevin Burkhardt believes that all it would take to bring Hairston back is a two-year, $9 million deal.  That's not a lot of money or commitment to a 32-year-old who's clearly one of the team's best right-handed power threats, along with the recently signed David Wright (who, in case the team has already forgotten, required $129 million more than Hairston would to stay in New York).

Sandy Alderson recently said at the Winter Meetings that the team is in need of more power at the plate.  He doesn't have to look very far to find it.  His power source has been wearing No. 12 for the Mets each of the past two seasons, stroking extra-base hits at a rate that no Met has ever reached before him.