Joey's Soapbox: My 2015 Obviously Biased LCS Picks

I'm a bear, not a Cub.

What's shaking, everyone?  This is Joey Beartran, back with more postseason predictions that may or may not be biased.  Have you been following along with my prognostications since the playoffs began?  If so, you would know that I correctly picked both wild card game winners and three of the four division series winners (stupid Cardinals had to put a blemish on my record).

It's now time to continue sharing my expert picks with you, as tonight we'll kick off the first of two league championship series.  But first, here's a little tidbit that is sure to make your brain explode like Marvin in Pulp Fiction.

The four participants in this year's league championship series (Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs, Mets) have each not raised the World Series trophy in over 20 years, with Toronto being the most recent champion, having won it all in 1993.  That's the first time since the advent of divisional play in 1969 that none of the final four teams had won a championship in more than two decades.  (The 2006 final four teams - Tigers, Athletics, Cardinals, Mets - had their most recent champion in 1989, when Oakland won it all.)  And the odd thing about that 20-plus year drought is that prior to this season, the Blue Jays had gone the longest without a postseason appearance - 22 long years.  But they're still the most recent World Series champion of the four remaining teams, as the Royals and Mets haven't won it all since they won consecutive championships in 1985 and 1986, respectively, and the Cubs haven't worn the World Series crown in about a thousand years, give or take a couple of campaigns.

This year, someone will end an over two-decade dry spell.  But before we get to that point, we have to whittle down the contestants from four to two.  And these are the teams that will be left standing in late October and perhaps early November.


American League Championship Series


Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals

Let's get one thing out of the way quickly.  The Blue Jays played their home games outside of this country.  But their offense was completely out of this world.

Toronto led the American League in home runs, doubles, runs scored, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and spectacular bat flips.  Their pitching wasn't as potent, but it wasn't that bad either, as the Blue Jays were fifth in the league in ERA, third in WHIP and issued the fewest walks of any staff in the league.  But I did find one problem with their pitching.

Will the A.L. flag rise in K.C. again?

Four of the team's five starting pitchers produced FIPs above 4.00.  That's not good.  At all.  The only starter under 4.00 was David Price, and he produced his exceptional 2.22 FIP in only 11 starts with the team.  And because the team regularly bludgeoned its opponents, they pitched in fewer save situations than most teams.  But when games were tight, the bullpen did not come through as well as they would have liked.  Toronto's bullpen had a combined 4.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in save situations, which contributed to the Blue Jays' awful 15-28 record in one-run games.  When Toronto blew out the opposition (winning by five or more runs), the team won 37 of 49 games.  When their opponents kept the game relatively close (within four runs), the Blue Jays were a sub-.500 team (56 wins, 57 losses).

Meanwhile, Kansas City had an exceptional bullpen that recorded 56 saves (second in the A.L.) and posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in save situations, which pretty much explains the high save total.  That allowed the Royals to win tight contests (23-17 in one-run games) as well as affairs that were not very competitive (26-17 in blowouts).

Pitching wins championships, and as long as the Royals and Blue Jays are keeping the score close, that will swing the pendulum in Kansas City's favor dramatically.  Well, that and the fact that the Blue Jays had a losing record on the road, Kansas City was 51-30 at Kauffman Stadium and the Royals have home field advantage in the series.

Prediction: Royals in 7.


National League Championship Series


Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Dude, do you really have to ask?  No analysis necessary.  And you can not throw out the narrative of the Mets losing all seven regular season games to the Cubs.  That was pre-Cespedes, pre-Conforto, d'Arnaud and Wright were on the disabled list, and players like Eric Campbell, Johnny Monell, John Mayberry Jr. and Darrell Ceciliani all started games against Chicago.  Any team could be a world beater against those guys.

The Mets are a different team now.  A better team.  They just won a series in which former and future Cy Young Award winners started four of the five games.  Jake Arrieta might be the Cubs' Mike Scott (minus the scuffing), but the rest of the staff is not that impressive to me.

The Mets have several aces, and Cubs hitters will be introduced to all of them just minutes before they return to their dugouts after making yet another out against them.

New York will make Chicago fly the "L" flag.

Prediction: Mets in 5.

I ain't 'fraid of no Cubs.  And neither should the Mets.

Home Field Disadvantage

You don't have to be a numbers-obsessed Mets fan like me to realize that the team has been playing pretty badly at Citi Field over the past few years.  But sometimes the numbers help to advance and enhance the narrative.

For example, since the beginning of the 2011 campaign, the Mets have gone 105-145 in games played at Citi Field.  Meanwhile, over the same time period, the team has posted a winning mark (128-124) on the road.  Should the Mets finish the 2014 season with a losing record at home, it would be the team's fourth consecutive sub-.500 record in their home ballpark.  Not since the Mets posted six straight losing seasons at home from 1977 to 1982 has the team been so futile before its fans.

But as bad as it's been at Citi Field for the Mets over the past three seasons, it looks like it's getting worse before it's getting better.  Please allow me to explain.

Through their first seven home games in 2014, the Mets have been outhit, 70-34.  They have failed to collect more than seven hits in any game at Citi Field, but their opponents haven't had that problem, as they have mustered seven or more hits in EVERY GAME played at Citi Field this season.

The Mets have batted .160 at home this year, while reaching base at a .246 clip.  Never has any team in Mets history posted a lower batting average through its first seven home games.  To put those numbers into perspective, the league batting average is .248.  That's two points higher than the Mets' on-base percentage at home this year.  (And for the record, the average National League team is posting a .313 on-base percentage.)

But there is one thing the Mets do well at home.  They strike out.  A lot.

In seven games at home, the Mets have fanned 69 times in 212 at-bats.  That's practically one strikeout every three at-bats.  And before you say, "Well, their pitchers have a lot to do with that, smarty pants, because they're forced to bat in the National League", allow me to retort.  Mets hurlers have struck out just six times at Citi Field this season.  (First-place Atlanta has played one fewer home game than the Mets, but their pitchers have struck out eight times.)  So it's mainly the everyday players who have been heading back to the dugout soon after taking or swinging through strike three.

Shake Shack might have a tasty burger, but what Mets fans really want to taste at Citi Field are Big Kahuna victories.

Just four short years ago, the Mets believed in home field advantage so much, they used their Citi Field success as part of a marketing campaign.  But that was then and this is now.  For as bad as the Mets have been at home since 2011, they've become even more lethargic in 2014.

The trade of Ike Davis actually removed one of the few players who was hitting well at Citi Field and wasn't striking out.  Davis was 4-for-8 with just one strikeout at home.  The rest of the team has gone 30-for-204 (for a .147 batting average) with 68 strikeouts.  If those numbers look familiar to you (which they shouldn't), that's because they're almost identical to the ones put up by Oliver Perez at the plate in his five seasons with the Mets.  Perez hit .147 with 53 strikeouts in 156 at-bats as a Met.

So tell me, my astute Mets fans.  If it's considered an insult for a Mets pitcher to be compared in any way to Oliver Perez, then what is it considered when a Mets hitter is compared to him?

The Mets used to believe in home field advantage.  But Citi Field has become a home field disadvantage for the team since 2011.  The Mets simply don't hit at home.  And that translates into not winning at home.  Clearly, the only teams that are taking advantage of Citi Field are the ones who call the third base dugout home.
 

Mets "Catch" A Break By Signing Willie Harris

Willie Harris. The name alone is enough to make Mets fans sick to their stomachs. For years, he has been a constant thorn in the Mets' collective sides. Whether making a highlight reel catch in a late inning pressure situation or delivering a key base hit, Harris has been directly responsible for a number of Met losses since 2007.

Therefore, it is with great pleasure that we announce that Willie Harris will not be making any rally-killing catches or producing timely hits against the Mets in 2011. No, he did not retire from baseball to walk the Earth (you know, like Caine in Kung Fu). Willie Harris is now property of the New York Mets.

According to ESPNNewYork.com, the man who played the outfield against the Mets like a modern-day Garry Maddox, will now be doing so for his former enemies. Willie Harris has signed a minor league deal with the Mets and will be invited to Spring Training. He is a clear favorite to become the club's fourth outfielder, providing excellent defense and versatility not seen in the Mets' outfield since the days of Endy Chavez at Shea Stadium.

Harris first became a nemesis to the Mets in 2007, when as a member of the Atlanta Braves, he robbed Carlos Delgado of a potential game-tying home run in the ninth inning. The catch allowed the Braves to hold on to the lead in a game they eventually won 7-6. It was one of many "what might have been" games for the Mets in their infamous 2007 season.

The following season, Harris was a member of the Washington Nationals when he arrived at Shea Stadium for an afternoon tilt against the Mets. Mike Pelfrey carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but the Mets were putting up zeroes on the board as well.

Washington scored a run in the eighth inning to go up 1-0, which was the score when the Mets came up to bat in the ninth inning. After Carlos Beltran led off the inning with a single, Ryan Church sliced a ball down the left field line that had extra-base hit written all over it. Of course, left field is Willie Harris territory, and he made the spectacular diving catch to preserve the Nats' victory.


The fielding trifecta was made complete this past season, as Willie Harris brought his defensive skills over from Shea Stadium to Citi Field. On April 10, the Mets were rallying against the Nationals. They were down 4-3 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning and had the bases loaded for April übermensch Rod Barajas. The Mets' catcher lined a ball to left field that looked like a game-winning base hit.

Um, no. I'll let the photo below describe what happened.


Despite the fact that Willie Harris is a career .159 batter against the Mets, he doesn't just put on his Mets-killer shoes on defense. On July 3, 2010, he helped defeat the Mets with the bat as well.

The Mets were ahead 5-3 going to the bottom of the ninth inning at Nationals Park. Francisco Rodriguez (in his pre-Frankie Knuckles days) was on the mound with one out and a runner on second base. Willie Harris came up to bat as the tying run.

No, he didn't hit a homer (D'oh!), but he did smoke a line drive single to right. He later came around to score the tying run in a game the Mets eventually lost 6-5.


So now Willie Harris is a Met, and stands a good chance to win the fourth outfielder's job out of Spring Training. The staff at Studious Metsimus is torn about how to react to this news. We'll now have to cheer Harris when he takes the field for the Mets after years of hating the ground he walked on.

Harris is hated even more in the Studious Metsimus offices because of one particular fact. We were present for all four games mentioned above, including the game in Washington where his bat did the talking.

Will we attend any games at Citi Field this year when Harris makes a spectacular play? We sure hope so. After all, he owes us for four years of dashed hopes. Of course, with our luck he'll probably do something like this (see photos below) when we see him in person.



Willie Harris is now property of the New York Mets. Maybe he'll be Citi Field's version of Endy Chavez. At the very least, he won't be breaking our hearts (hopefully) in the ninth inning of ballgames.

Mr. Harris, we hope you brought your "Catch-22" glove with you to Flushing. If not, the same fans that booed you when you wore the uniforms of the Braves and Nationals will do the same when you're in orange and blue.