Mets Shouldn't Be So Evenly Matched With the Marlins ... But They Are

The Mets and Marlins never seem to budge when they face each other.  (Photo by Andy Marlin.  Seriously, that's his name.)

When you think of the Marlins, you think of fire sales and less-than-mediocre baseball.  After all, other than their store-bought championships, the team Jeffrey Loria built (then dismantled) has only surpassed 84 victories three times since their inaugural season in 1993 and has finished in last place or next-to-last in 13 of their 23 campaigns.  The Marlins have also never won a division title - joining their '93 expansion mates in Colorado as the only MLB teams never to do so - even though they won two titles as wild card teams.

Since the Marlins came into the league nearly a quarter century ago, the Mets have secured two wild cards, two division titles and two National League pennants.  New York has also finished above .500 ten times since becoming N.L. East rivals with Florida/Miami and has finished in first or second place in the division on nine occasions.

Finally, the Mets have posted a worse record than the Marlins in just eight of their 23 seasons.  And from 1993 to 2015, New York has gone a collective 28 games under .500, while their division rivals in Florida are a combined 230 games below the break-even point.

Just by reading the three paragraphs above, it certainly appears as if the Mets should have an easy time with the Marlins when they play each other.  But they never have.  In fact, the two teams are so evenly matched when they square off against one another that a single run usually decides their contests.  And no other team in the division is even close to the Marlins when it comes to one-run affairs played against the Mets.

Since 2009, when Citi Field first opened its doors, the Mets and Marlins have played each other 67 times in Flushing.  Incredibly, the two teams have played a whopping 32 one-run games at Citi Field in those seven-plus seasons seasons - or almost half of all the games they've played against each other in New York.  In the same time period, the Mets have played a similar number of games against the other teams in the division - Atlanta, Philadelphia and Washington - and haven't had nearly as many contests decided by the slimmest of margins.  In fact, according to this tweet by a supposed Mets blogger, the disparity between Mets/Marlins one-run games and Mets/Other Division Rivals single-tally affairs was enough to make his fingers stick to the CAPS LOCK button.

One-run games vs. NL East teams at Citi Field since 2009:
Braves - 15 games
Phillies - 16 games
Nats - 19 games
Marlins - 32 GAMES!!!

— Ed Leyro (@Studi_Metsimus) April 13, 2016

In addition to the plethora of tight ballgames at Citi Field, the Mets and Marlins have also played their share of one-run games at Marlins Park, Florida/Miami's previous stadium and Hiram Bithorn Stadium in Puerto Rico.  In total, the two squads have played 26 one-run games (out of 65 total games) in the state of Florida and the commonwealth of Puerto Rico since 2009, giving the clubs an incredible 58 one-run affairs against one another in the last seven-plus seasons, which include the back-to-back single-tally decisions that closed out this week's series between the two teams at Citi Field.

And why just stop at one-run games?  Since 2009, the Mets and Marlins were tied after nine innings in 14 different contests.  One of those games, played in 2013, lasted 15 innings and resulted in a 4-3 win by Miami.  Another, played just 40 days later, took a little longer to complete, as the somewhat blurry photo below confirms.

Just like the Energizer Bunny, Mets/Marlins games just keep going and going and going...

Let's recap, shall we?  Since 2009, the Mets have played the Marlins 132 times.  In 58 of those games, the two teams were separated on the scoreboard by just one run.  (For all you kids out there, that's 43.9% of their showdowns.)  When the two teams have dueled each other at Citi Field, they've played one-run games in 32 of those 67 affairs, or an incredible 47.8% of their matchups in the Big Apple.  No other team has even come close to approaching the frequency of one-run games that the Mets and Marlins have had over the past few years.

Look at the final season records since 1993 and you'll see that the Mets have an advantage over the Marlins in won-loss record, postseason appearances and number of times finishing near the top of the division standings.  But when the two teams play each other, it seems as if no team has the advantage.  If you've come to a Mets/Marlins game with the hopes of watching a blowout, you've picked the wrong game to attend (although Steven Matz might disagree with that statement).

Here's one final note on how evenly matched the two teams are.  As mentioned before, the two teams have played 58 one-run games against each other since 2009, with 32 of those games taking place at Citi Field and the other 26 occurring at whatever named park the Marlins have been playing in at the time.  In New York, the Mets have won 21 of those 32 games.  In Florida and Puerto Rico, the Marlins have emerged victorious in 18 of the 26 contests.  Put that together and what do you get?  You guessed it.  The two teams are 29-29 in their 58 one-run games.

The Mets and Marlins have 16 games left against each other in 2016 that will probably end up with eight wins for each team and several one-run tilts and extra-inning affairs for your viewing pleasure.  Would you expect anything else from the two squads?

The Mets Look to the Future by Trying to Avoid a Repeat of the Past

Matt Harvey and his teammates hope to turn their frowns upside down in 2016.  (David J. Phillip/AP)

The 2015 Mets had a wonderful season that ended in disappointment, as the team's fifth World Series appearance resulted in their third Fall Classic defeat.  The two previous times the Mets won the pennant but lost the title, they had poor seasons in the year immediately following their World Series appearance, with the 1974 squad going 71-91 and the 2001 club needing a sizzling September to barely finish the year with a winning record (82-80).

Clearly, the 1974 and 2001 squads are not the the same as the team that what will become the 2016 Mets.  But there are some similarities with the '74 squad that should be looked at if the Mets want to avoid regressing to the style of play that permeated Citi Field from 2009 to 2014.

During the 2015 regular season, Mets pitchers were decent at keeping opponents off the scoreboard from the eighth inning until the game's conclusion.  They allowed 139 runs in 331 innings after the seventh frame - an average of 3.78 runs per nine innings.  (The team as a whole allowed 613 runs in 1,462⅔ IP, an average 3.77 runs per nine innings.)  But that changed in the postseason, as Mets pitchers combined to give up 22 runs in 34 innings in the eighth frame and beyond - an average of 5.82 runs per nine innings.

Now let's compare this to what happened in 1973 and 1974.  The 1973 Mets allowed 112 runs after the seventh inning.  In 1974, the pitching staff combined to give up 150 runs from the eighth inning on.  That's nearly a 34% increase in runs allowed in the late innings and in extra frames from their pennant-winning season to their lackluster 71-91 followup campaign.

The 2015 postseason began to show a crack in the late inning armor.  That cannot continue in 2016 if the Mets don't want a repeat of what happened in 1974.  Making sure the bullpen - especially Jeurys Familia - is not overworked, is critical to the success of next year's team.

Speaking of Familia, let's look at the closer in 1973 - Tug McGraw.  McGraw recorded 25 saves in the Mets' pennant-winning season and allowed runs in 18 of his 58 relief appearances.  A year later, McGraw struggled, giving up runs in 20 of his 37 relief efforts and recording a mere four saves.  (The Mets bullpen as a whole had just 14 saves in 1974 - the lowest total by any Mets team since the save became an official statistic in 1969.)  It should be noted that between the regular season and the playoffs, McGraw pitched a whopping 137⅓ innings in 1973, which was 26⅓ innings more than his previous career high.  Similarly, Familia reached a career high in innings pitched in 2015, tossing 92⅔ innings last season after never having pitched more than 77⅓ innings in parts of three major league seasons before 2015.  Familia's workload cannot be as heavy in 2016 if the Mets want him to continue to be one of the most reliable closers in the game.

Do I have to get on my knees for the Mets not to overuse Familia in 2016?  (John Starks/Daily Herald)

Moving on to the hitting, the 2015 Mets batted .244 as a team, which was only one percentage point ahead of the San Diego Padres, who finished the season with a league-worst .243 team batting average.  However, the Mets finished near the league average in on-base-plus-slugging (OPS), posting a .712 OPS which was just under the league average of .713.  Both numbers improved when there were runners in scoring position, as the Mets batted .252 with a .736 OPS in RISP situations.

The same thing could be said for the 1973 squad, a team that batted .246 overall with a .653 OPS in all situations during the regular season.  But when there were runners in scoring position, those numbers increased to .254 and .702, respectively.  A year later, the 1974 club could only manage a .238 batting average and .644 OPS with runners in scoring position.  Both of those numbers were worse than what the 1973 squad put up in all situations.

By not being able to drive in runners from second or third base, the 1974 team put more pressure on their pitchers to allow fewer runs and the moundsmen were not up to the task, as Tom Seaver posted the first non-winning season of his career and Jon Matlack had a 13-15 won-loss record despite his 2.41 ERA and seven complete-game shutouts.  The 2016 Mets must continue to drive in runners when they reach scoring position.  If they lose Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the two players must be replaced with guys who are effective in RISP situations.

Another crucial hitting situation is the one that involves a runner on third base with two outs, where a hitter cannot settle for a fly ball to drive in the runner as he would when there are fewer than two men out.  In 2015, the Mets were not very good in these situations, batting .209 with a .648 OPS.  However, the 1974 squad would have loved to have had that type of production with two outs and a runner on third.  That team batted just .198 and had a measly .547 OPS when those situations occurred - a far cry from the .236/.652 marks the team put up in its pennant-winning 1973 campaign.  The .209/.648 performance by the 2015 club with a runner on third and two outs was not very good and must be improved in 2016 if the team wants to compete for another postseason berth.  If those numbers get any worse, the team could be looking at a sequel to the 1974 season.

Finally, let's look at the Mets' ability to win close games.  The 2015 team was 25-24 in games decided by one run, went 9-6 in extra-inning affairs and only lost four games via the walk-off.  All of those numbers are quite acceptable.  The 1973 pennant-winning Mets - a team that finished the regular season with an 82-79 record - wasn't nearly as good as their 2015 counterparts in close games, as they went 31-32 in one-run contests, 7-12 in extra innings and 6-9 in walk-off games.  However, those numbers were superior to what the Mets produced in 1974 - a year in which they finished 17-36 in one-run games, 4-16 in extra-inning contests and 3-14 in games that ended on a walk-off.  Clearly, the 2016 club must continue to play well in tight ballgames.  To fall as far as the 1974 squad did in the late innings and in extra innings would be disastrous.

The 2015 Mets went places that no one expected them to go.  Although they fell just short of a World Series title, they have the pieces in place to make another run at the team's third championship.  But they can't fall into the trap that befell the 1974 Mets.  That team had a closer that was overused in the previous pennant-winning campaign, could not keep opponents off the scoreboard in the late innings, had difficulty driving in runs with runners in scoring position and was absolutely useless in getting runners in from third base when the other team needed one out to get out of the inning.  The 1974 club followed up their World Series-losing season by winning 71 games.

The 2016 squad still has many players who participated in all or most of the six straight losing seasons the team recorded from 2009 to 2014.  Although those players have wonderful memories of 2015, the memories of those sub-.500 campaigns are also still fresh in their minds.  Next year's team should look at what happened in 1974 and learn from that team's mistakes so as not to repeat history.  Terry Collins cannot overuse Jeurys Familia next year.  Sandy Alderson has to put together a bullpen that will not give up run after run in the late innings, a la the 1974 squad.  And the team has to show that even with the potential loss of Murphy and Cespedes, it can drive in runs in critical situations.

A dropoff in several key categories and positions killed the Mets' chances to return to the World Series in 1974.  It can do the same for the 2016 team.  Alderson, Collins and the players have to make sure the Mets don't repeat the past if they want to be successful in the future.

Don't Blame The Bullpen, Blame The Bats

Don't worry, Jenrry.  It's not you or your armpit that stinks.  It's the team's hitters. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Saturday night, the Mets took a 4-3 lead against the Giants into the bottom of the ninth inning.  Closer Jenrry Mejia was called upon to protect the precarious lead, but he proceeded to allow two runs to San Francisco, turning what would have been a satisfying victory into an ugly defeat.

The loss was the 16th suffered by a Mets bullpen that has combined to record 15 saves.  The Mets are one of just four teams in baseball whose relievers have more losses than saves.  The other three are the Colorado Rockies (12 losses, 11 saves), Chicago Cubs (12 losses, 11 saves) and Tampa Bay Rays (12 losses, 9 saves).  Prior to last night's victory over the Dodgers, Colorado had lost eight straight games and 18 of their last 24.  As for the Cubs and Rays, no team in the National League has fewer wins than Chicago, and Tampa has the worst record in all of baseball.  But as unfortunate as the Rockies, Cubs and Rays have been with their bullpens, none of them can match the Mets' 16 relief losses, which are the most by any bullpen in the big leagues.

In addition, last night's game was the Mets' 17th one-run loss of the year.  That's 17 losses by the smallest margin out of their 34 overall defeats, or half of their losses.  The Mets lead all of baseball with their 17 one-run setbacks.  No other club has more than 14 losses by a single run.  And the team with exactly 14 one-run losses is Cincinnati, a team that made the postseason last year but is one of this year's biggest disappointments with a 28-32 record entering Sunday's game.  Another of baseball's most disappointing teams is the Boston Red Sox, who are also under .500 after winning the World Series in 2013.  Not by coincidence, the Red Sox have the most one-run losses (13) in the American League.  But neither Cincinnati, Boston nor any other major league team can say half of their losses have come by a single run.  Only the Mets can claim that.

Six different pitchers (Jenrry Mejia, Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Valverde, Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Daisuke Matsuzaka) have recorded at least one save for the Mets this year.  All six have also been saddled with at least one blown save in 2014.  And that's not including Bobby Parnell, the team's closer going into the season, who blew his only save opportunity before being lost for the year.

With all that negative statistical analysis, you'd think I'm blaming the bullpen for the Mets' inability to put up a few extra wins this year.  But it's the exact opposite.  It's not the bullpen I'm blaming, it's the bats.

Unlike recent seasons, the relievers are actually posting a lower ERA (3.51) than the starting pitchers (3.74).  And many of the relievers' losses this year have come when they've pitched beautifully.  For example, when the Mets lost to the Phillies in 14 innings a week ago, seven relievers combined to allow two runs (one earned) in 9⅓ innings.  But the bullpen got tagged with a loss in the Phillies' eventual triumph.  And yes, it was one of the Mets' MLB-leading 17 one-run losses.

Similarly, on May 9, when the Mets entertained the Phillies at Citi Field, the bullpen was stellar, allowing just one run on three hits in 6⅓ innings of work.  But that lone run was the decisive tally in the Mets' 11-inning loss to Philadelphia.  A one-run loss.  Again.

Those games are just two examples of how the Mets bullpen has been more than adequate this season even if the boxscore continues to show losses for the relievers and one-run defeats for the team.  The two losses to the Phillies have another thing in common.  The bats went to sleep after the starter was taken out of the game.  In the May 9 contest, New York scored one run on just four hits in the seven innings following the departure of starter Jenrry Mejia.  The team was 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position once Mejia was sent to the showers.  Similarly, in last week's 14-inning loss to Philadelphia, the Mets were shut out over the last nine innings, going 0-for-7 when they batted with runners in scoring position.

Last night's game was no different, as the Mets went 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position.  However, all three hits came when starter Bartolo Colon was still in the game.  Once the bullpen was called upon to protect the Mets' lead, the hitters decided to call it a night, going 0-for-9 over the last three innings.  As a result, the lack of an insurance run or two allowed the Giants to chip away at the Mets' lead.  And the end result was a loss by the bullpen and another one-run loss for the team.

Here is the Mets' recipe for playing baseball these days, a recipe that has left a sour taste in the mouths of many Mets fans.

• Get an early lead.
• Mix in a hit with a runner in scoring position.
• Add a relatively strong effort by the bullpen.
• Stop hitting when the lead appears safe.
• Watch the bullpen allow no more than two runs in a one-run loss.
• Repeat.

No team should have more losses from their bullpen than saves.  But the Mets can claim that dubious distinction.  Furthermore, no team should lose half of its games by just one run.  The Mets are alone in that regard.

New York's bullpen is not perfect.  No team's bullpen is.  But the relief corps shouldn't have to shoulder the blame for what the real problem is with the Mets this year.  The team is just not hitting.  They hit enough to put several men on base, then they hit the snooze button just as it appears they're putting a rally together.

Last night's loss and the two losses to the Phillies in May were microcosms of what's plagued the Mets all year.  The bullpen does its job, but the hitters don't do theirs.  It's the reason why players like Travis d'Arnaud (the only player in baseball with 125+ plate appearances who has yet to reach double digits in both runs scored and RBI) get sent down to the minors.  And it's the reason why the Mets are struggling to remain relevant in an otherwise mediocre NL East.

If the Mets were 14-11 in one-run games instead of 8-17, they'd be alone atop the division.  Instead, they're struggling to stay ahead of the Phillies for last place.  Batting .231 with runners in scoring position and having more strikeouts (143) than hits (129) in those situations have a lot to do with the Mets' shortcomings this year.  And don't get me started on the Mets' .159 batting average with the bases loaded or their .128 average with runners on second and third - a situation that is easier to score a run on because there is no force play at any base, unlike the bases loaded situation.

Don't blame the bullpen for the Mets' late-inning losses.  The relief pitchers have done their job better than you think.  Direct your vitriol straight at what passes for the Mets' offense these days.  The team's lack of timely hitting is leaving a bad taste in all of our mouths.  And that's most certainly a recipe for disaster.