This Is How Close The Mets Are To Being Crazy Good

Matt Harvey smiles as he realizes just how good this team could be very soon.  (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

On Friday, Jonathon Niese allowed three runs in six innings of work in a game that was eventually lost by the Mets, 7-2.  The game marked just the sixth time all season that the Mets lost when their starting pitcher was credited with a quality start (six or more innings pitched, no more than three earned runs allowed).  By contrast, the Mets have won 27 times in games where the starter recorded a quality start.  That gives the team a 27-6 record in quality starts and a lowly 3-20 mark when the starting pitcher failed to give a quality performance.

To put this in layman's terms, the Mets have won over 80% of the time when their starting staff has kept them in games.  But once the starter falls apart, it becomes nearly impossible for the offense to bail him out.

I wanted to know how important quality starts have been for the Mets in determining where the team has finished in the season's final standings, so I did some research on the topic.  My findings were not only stunning, but proved just how close the Mets currently are to being one of the top teams in the league, as long as the offense doesn't let them down.

First, I wanted to see how many Mets teams have recorded 100 or more quality starts in a single season.  There were a dozen such teams, as shown by the chart below.

Of the 12 teams to reach triple digits in quality starts, nine finished with winning records and four reached the postseason, including both World Championship teams and all three 100-win squads.  The three teams that posted 100 or more quality starts, but still finished below .500 did so in 1968, 1974 and 2012.

Clearly, all three of those sub-.500 teams had excellent pitching, as evidenced by the overwhelming numbers of quality starts.  But one other thing they had in common was their anemic offense.

The 1968 campaign was known as "The Year of the Pitcher", as hurlers such as Bob Gibson (1.12 ERA; the lowest mark in the modern era of baseball) and Denny McLain (31 wins; the last pitcher to win 30 or more games) posted career years on the mound.  But as much as hitters struggled against pitchers in 1968, no team fared worse at the plate than the New York Mets.

In the final season before the leagues split up into divisions, the Mets finished dead last in the National League in team batting average (.228), on-base percentage (.281) and slugging percentage (.315), scoring just 473 runs - which remains the fewest tallies in club history in a non-strike shortened campaign.

Similarly, the 1974 club made most of the pitchers they faced look like Sandy Koufax on the mound.  The Mets finished the year in last place or next-to-last place in nearly every offensive category, including hits, doubles, triples, stolen bases, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and of course, runs scored.  The pitcher who suffered the most for the Mets in 1974 was Jon Matlack, who incredibly tossed seven shutouts and posted a 2.41 ERA, but only managed a 13-15 won-loss record.  More than half of his wins in 1974 came in those seven shutouts, meaning that once he allowed a single run, his team's chances of winning went down the drain.

The third club with 100 quality starts that failed to post a winning record did it fairly recently.  In 2012, the Mets had the National League Cy Young Award winner in R.A. Dickey, who led the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched and strikeouts, as well as recording quality starts in 27 of his 33 starts.  They also had a staff that included Johan Santana, who pitched the team's first and only no-hitter, and Jonathon Niese, who quietly had the best season of his career, going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 22 quality starts.  In addition, the 2012 campaign saw the debut of Matt Harvey, who dazzled in his ten late-season starts (2.73 ERA, 70 Ks in 59.1 IP).  Of course, none of that could help the team achieve a winning record.  While it's true that the bullpen was part of the reason for the team's failure to have many happy recaps, the offense didn't help much either.  The team batted .249 and finished outside of the league's top ten in home runs, stolen bases, runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Now let's take a look at the teams that posted the highest winning percentages in games where a starting pitcher recorded a quality start.

Once again, the teams that took advantage of quality starts were among the best in franchise history.  Eight of the top ten teams won 88 or more games and six of those eight teams made the playoffs.  The two teams that didn't win at least 88 games were the 1994 Mets, who never finished their 162-game schedule due to the players strike and this year's club, who are on pace for just under 87 victories.

The 1994 squad had a wonderful one-two tandem atop the rotation in Bret Saberhagen and Bobby Jones.  The two right-handers combined to go 26-11 with a 2.93 ERA, accounting for nearly half of the team's 55 victories.  However, the team's offense sputtered for most of the abbreviated season finishing at or near the bottom of the league in hits, doubles, triples, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  New York also had no speed to speak of, as bench player John Cangelosi led the team with five stolen bases.  Also, making contact wasn't exactly the team's forte, as the Mets led the league in strikeouts and were next-to-last in walks.

And that brings us to this year's squad, who currently is one of just two teams in franchise history to win 80% of their quality starts - the other is the 1986 World Championship team.  With a rotation led by Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, the 2015 Mets have been wonderful at limiting runs scored by the opposition.  Unfortunately, the hitters have prevented the team from winning games when the starting pitchers haven't been on top of their games.

The Mets have averaged 3.79 runs per game in the 56 contests they've played this year.  The last Mets team to score fewer runs per game was the 1992 squad, who crossed the plate 3.70 times per affair and famously became known as "The Worst Team Money Could Buy".  This year's team is also averaging 7.73 strikeouts per game.  The only teams with a higher strikeout rate were the last two - the 2013 and 2014 clubs.  It also doesn't help that the Mets are batting .241 and reaching base at a .305 clip.

It wouldn't take much for the 2015 Mets to win on a more consistent basis.  In fact, they don't even need a bunch of superstars to push them over the top.  They just need to be average at the plate.

The average National League hitter is putting up a .253/.314/.392 slash line.  Those numbers aren't spectacular, but they're much better than the current .241/.305/.367 slash line posted by the Mets.  In addition, the average National League team has 91 doubles, nine triples, 49 homers, 31 stolen bases and has scored 225 runs.  All of those numbers are greater than the 82 doubles, five triples, 47 homers, 19 stolen bases and 212 runs scored by the Mets.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to postulate that quality starts usually help a team win ballgames.  But even having a staff that produces quality starts by the bunches doesn't guarantee a playoff berth or even a winning record.  The 1968, 1974 and 2012 Mets know all about that.  And despite the season-ending players strike that put the kibosh on the 1994 campaign, Jeff Kent, his epic mustache, and rest of the '94 club could attest that winning the majority of the team's quality starts doesn't mean very much if the team can't win its non-quality starts.

The best teams in Mets history had great starting pitchers and could also hit the ball around the park.  That's why the 1969, 1986 and 1988 squads are the only ones to appear on both of the above charts.  Neither of those three teams were offensive juggernauts, but they each had a balanced attack at the plate.  The '69 squad finished in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories, yet still won 100 games.  That's all the 2015 Mets need.  If they're just mediocre at the plate, their starting pitching will carry them to places they've rarely been.

All the quality starts in the world won't produce a memorable season if the team's hitters are less than average at the plate.  A little mediocrity may be just what the doctor ordered to prescribe a successful season at Citi Field in 2015.

It's Early, But The Mets Offense Has Been Offensive

Earlier this morning, the MetsBlog Twitter account delivered this yummy bit of somewhat fictional information to its tens of thousands of followers.

Although the .196 team batting average is correct, the team had actually hit two homers during the season's first five games, with David Wright and John Mayberry connecting off Braves starter Eric Stults on back-to-back pitches during Friday night's game.

But perhaps the lack of extra-base hits produced by the Mets during the first week of the new season confused the fact checkers at MetsBlog.  After all, with just four extra-base hits in five games, the Mets are dead last in the majors in that category.  Let's put the anemic offense into perspective.

New York has 32 hits this season.  That's just four more safeties than the Colorado Rockies have extra-base hits.  The N.L. West leaders have hit 21 doubles and seven homers through their first five contests.

Speaking of the Rockies, their pitchers have accounted for two of their league-leading 21 doubles, as starting pitchers Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Matzek have both ripped two-baggers during the season's first week.  Therefore, Colorado's pitchers have produced more doubles than the entire Mets team, as Lucas Duda is the only Met to stroke a double so far in 2015.

As previously mentioned, the Mets have four extra-base hits this season.  How anemic is that?  Let me count the ways.

1. The Detroit Tigers have as many triples as the Mets have extra-base hits.
2. There are 15 players in baseball with as many or more extra-base hits than the entire Mets team.
3. Nineteen of the other 29 teams have as many homers as the Mets have extra-base hits.

No extra-base production means no slugging percentage, and the Mets are dead last in the majors with a .252 slugging percentage.  New York is one of just three teams in baseball with a higher on-base percentage (.264) than slugging percentage.  The other two teams are the Miami Marlins (.285 OBP, .259 SLG) and the Minnesota Twins (.258 OBP, .256 SLG).  It should be noted that the Marlins and Twins are tied for the worst record in baseball, as both teams are 1-4.

The Mets have more bearded players than they have extra-base hits.  (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

If the Mets offense is not going to produce, then the onus rests on the starting pitchers to keep the team's opponents off the scoreboard.  But even the starting pitchers aren't going very deep during the first week of the season.  The Mets are one of three teams who have not yet had one of its starters pitch into the seventh inning this year, joining the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees.  And why are Mets starters not going deeper into games?  Some of it is ineffectiveness (see Niese, Jon and Gee, Dillon) and some of it is because of an innings limit (see Knight, Dark).  But another reason why the starters have not pitched past the sixth inning is because the team has needed to pinch-hit for them earlier in games because the offense has not been effective.

On Opening Day, Bartolo Colon was cruising, allowing one run on three hits in six innings.  But with the Mets holding on to a slim 2-1 lead in the top of the seventh, manager Terry Collins replaced Colon with pinch-hitter Kirk Nieuwenhuis, even though Colon had only thrown 86 pitches to that point.  Nieuwenhuis failed to drive in Travis d'Arnaud, who had hit a triple two batters earlier, and Colon was out of the game.

Two nights later, it was Jacob deGrom's turn to be taken out of the game for a pinch-hitter.  DeGrom had thrown just 92 pitches through six innings, shutting down the Nationals after allowing a two-run homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the first inning.  But deGrom was trailing by a run when he was due to bat in the seventh.  Once again, Collins pinch-hit Nieuwenhuis for his starting pitcher and the Mets failed to score.

Both Colon and deGrom could have pitched into the seventh inning had the Mets been more productive with their bats.  But they weren't.  And because of that, the bullpen has gotten a lot of early work and two starters have gotten early showers.

Look, I know it's only five games.  I also know it's very possible the Mets might hit the stitches off the ball over their next five games and this blog post will be moot.  But it's just frustrating that the lineup looked halfway decent coming into the season and they're struggling to produce a slugging percentage that resembles a typical batting average.

Mario Mendoza, whose name is so synonymous with a low batting average that a .200 hitter is said to be at the Mendoza Line - never mind that Mendoza actually had a .215 lifetime batting average - would look at the 2015 Mets and shake his head in disgust.  That's what happens when an entire team can only muster a .196 batting average.  And it's not just the lack of hits that would upset Mendoza.  It's the lack of long hits.  The Mets' .252 slugging percentage is also lower than Mendoza's .262 career mark.

All you have to know about the early season offensive production of the 2015 Mets is this.  In last night's game, the Atlanta Braves produced three doubles and one triple in the sixth inning.  The Braves' extra-base hit production in that one inning matched the total number of extra-base hits produced by the Mets in their first five games combined.

The offense is doing just enough to offend and not enough to contend.  Let's hope "it's still early" doesn't turn into "it's getting late" for the team's lumber to awaken from its slumber.

This is what most Mets hitters have looked like in 2015.  (Adam Hunger/USA TODAY)

Don't Blame The Bullpen, Blame The Bats

Don't worry, Jenrry.  It's not you or your armpit that stinks.  It's the team's hitters. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Saturday night, the Mets took a 4-3 lead against the Giants into the bottom of the ninth inning.  Closer Jenrry Mejia was called upon to protect the precarious lead, but he proceeded to allow two runs to San Francisco, turning what would have been a satisfying victory into an ugly defeat.

The loss was the 16th suffered by a Mets bullpen that has combined to record 15 saves.  The Mets are one of just four teams in baseball whose relievers have more losses than saves.  The other three are the Colorado Rockies (12 losses, 11 saves), Chicago Cubs (12 losses, 11 saves) and Tampa Bay Rays (12 losses, 9 saves).  Prior to last night's victory over the Dodgers, Colorado had lost eight straight games and 18 of their last 24.  As for the Cubs and Rays, no team in the National League has fewer wins than Chicago, and Tampa has the worst record in all of baseball.  But as unfortunate as the Rockies, Cubs and Rays have been with their bullpens, none of them can match the Mets' 16 relief losses, which are the most by any bullpen in the big leagues.

In addition, last night's game was the Mets' 17th one-run loss of the year.  That's 17 losses by the smallest margin out of their 34 overall defeats, or half of their losses.  The Mets lead all of baseball with their 17 one-run setbacks.  No other club has more than 14 losses by a single run.  And the team with exactly 14 one-run losses is Cincinnati, a team that made the postseason last year but is one of this year's biggest disappointments with a 28-32 record entering Sunday's game.  Another of baseball's most disappointing teams is the Boston Red Sox, who are also under .500 after winning the World Series in 2013.  Not by coincidence, the Red Sox have the most one-run losses (13) in the American League.  But neither Cincinnati, Boston nor any other major league team can say half of their losses have come by a single run.  Only the Mets can claim that.

Six different pitchers (Jenrry Mejia, Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Valverde, Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Daisuke Matsuzaka) have recorded at least one save for the Mets this year.  All six have also been saddled with at least one blown save in 2014.  And that's not including Bobby Parnell, the team's closer going into the season, who blew his only save opportunity before being lost for the year.

With all that negative statistical analysis, you'd think I'm blaming the bullpen for the Mets' inability to put up a few extra wins this year.  But it's the exact opposite.  It's not the bullpen I'm blaming, it's the bats.

Unlike recent seasons, the relievers are actually posting a lower ERA (3.51) than the starting pitchers (3.74).  And many of the relievers' losses this year have come when they've pitched beautifully.  For example, when the Mets lost to the Phillies in 14 innings a week ago, seven relievers combined to allow two runs (one earned) in 9⅓ innings.  But the bullpen got tagged with a loss in the Phillies' eventual triumph.  And yes, it was one of the Mets' MLB-leading 17 one-run losses.

Similarly, on May 9, when the Mets entertained the Phillies at Citi Field, the bullpen was stellar, allowing just one run on three hits in 6⅓ innings of work.  But that lone run was the decisive tally in the Mets' 11-inning loss to Philadelphia.  A one-run loss.  Again.

Those games are just two examples of how the Mets bullpen has been more than adequate this season even if the boxscore continues to show losses for the relievers and one-run defeats for the team.  The two losses to the Phillies have another thing in common.  The bats went to sleep after the starter was taken out of the game.  In the May 9 contest, New York scored one run on just four hits in the seven innings following the departure of starter Jenrry Mejia.  The team was 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position once Mejia was sent to the showers.  Similarly, in last week's 14-inning loss to Philadelphia, the Mets were shut out over the last nine innings, going 0-for-7 when they batted with runners in scoring position.

Last night's game was no different, as the Mets went 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position.  However, all three hits came when starter Bartolo Colon was still in the game.  Once the bullpen was called upon to protect the Mets' lead, the hitters decided to call it a night, going 0-for-9 over the last three innings.  As a result, the lack of an insurance run or two allowed the Giants to chip away at the Mets' lead.  And the end result was a loss by the bullpen and another one-run loss for the team.

Here is the Mets' recipe for playing baseball these days, a recipe that has left a sour taste in the mouths of many Mets fans.

• Get an early lead.
• Mix in a hit with a runner in scoring position.
• Add a relatively strong effort by the bullpen.
• Stop hitting when the lead appears safe.
• Watch the bullpen allow no more than two runs in a one-run loss.
• Repeat.

No team should have more losses from their bullpen than saves.  But the Mets can claim that dubious distinction.  Furthermore, no team should lose half of its games by just one run.  The Mets are alone in that regard.

New York's bullpen is not perfect.  No team's bullpen is.  But the relief corps shouldn't have to shoulder the blame for what the real problem is with the Mets this year.  The team is just not hitting.  They hit enough to put several men on base, then they hit the snooze button just as it appears they're putting a rally together.

Last night's loss and the two losses to the Phillies in May were microcosms of what's plagued the Mets all year.  The bullpen does its job, but the hitters don't do theirs.  It's the reason why players like Travis d'Arnaud (the only player in baseball with 125+ plate appearances who has yet to reach double digits in both runs scored and RBI) get sent down to the minors.  And it's the reason why the Mets are struggling to remain relevant in an otherwise mediocre NL East.

If the Mets were 14-11 in one-run games instead of 8-17, they'd be alone atop the division.  Instead, they're struggling to stay ahead of the Phillies for last place.  Batting .231 with runners in scoring position and having more strikeouts (143) than hits (129) in those situations have a lot to do with the Mets' shortcomings this year.  And don't get me started on the Mets' .159 batting average with the bases loaded or their .128 average with runners on second and third - a situation that is easier to score a run on because there is no force play at any base, unlike the bases loaded situation.

Don't blame the bullpen for the Mets' late-inning losses.  The relief pitchers have done their job better than you think.  Direct your vitriol straight at what passes for the Mets' offense these days.  The team's lack of timely hitting is leaving a bad taste in all of our mouths.  And that's most certainly a recipe for disaster.