The Mets Look to the Future by Trying to Avoid a Repeat of the Past

Matt Harvey and his teammates hope to turn their frowns upside down in 2016.  (David J. Phillip/AP)

The 2015 Mets had a wonderful season that ended in disappointment, as the team's fifth World Series appearance resulted in their third Fall Classic defeat.  The two previous times the Mets won the pennant but lost the title, they had poor seasons in the year immediately following their World Series appearance, with the 1974 squad going 71-91 and the 2001 club needing a sizzling September to barely finish the year with a winning record (82-80).

Clearly, the 1974 and 2001 squads are not the the same as the team that what will become the 2016 Mets.  But there are some similarities with the '74 squad that should be looked at if the Mets want to avoid regressing to the style of play that permeated Citi Field from 2009 to 2014.

During the 2015 regular season, Mets pitchers were decent at keeping opponents off the scoreboard from the eighth inning until the game's conclusion.  They allowed 139 runs in 331 innings after the seventh frame - an average of 3.78 runs per nine innings.  (The team as a whole allowed 613 runs in 1,462⅔ IP, an average 3.77 runs per nine innings.)  But that changed in the postseason, as Mets pitchers combined to give up 22 runs in 34 innings in the eighth frame and beyond - an average of 5.82 runs per nine innings.

Now let's compare this to what happened in 1973 and 1974.  The 1973 Mets allowed 112 runs after the seventh inning.  In 1974, the pitching staff combined to give up 150 runs from the eighth inning on.  That's nearly a 34% increase in runs allowed in the late innings and in extra frames from their pennant-winning season to their lackluster 71-91 followup campaign.

The 2015 postseason began to show a crack in the late inning armor.  That cannot continue in 2016 if the Mets don't want a repeat of what happened in 1974.  Making sure the bullpen - especially Jeurys Familia - is not overworked, is critical to the success of next year's team.

Speaking of Familia, let's look at the closer in 1973 - Tug McGraw.  McGraw recorded 25 saves in the Mets' pennant-winning season and allowed runs in 18 of his 58 relief appearances.  A year later, McGraw struggled, giving up runs in 20 of his 37 relief efforts and recording a mere four saves.  (The Mets bullpen as a whole had just 14 saves in 1974 - the lowest total by any Mets team since the save became an official statistic in 1969.)  It should be noted that between the regular season and the playoffs, McGraw pitched a whopping 137⅓ innings in 1973, which was 26⅓ innings more than his previous career high.  Similarly, Familia reached a career high in innings pitched in 2015, tossing 92⅔ innings last season after never having pitched more than 77⅓ innings in parts of three major league seasons before 2015.  Familia's workload cannot be as heavy in 2016 if the Mets want him to continue to be one of the most reliable closers in the game.

Do I have to get on my knees for the Mets not to overuse Familia in 2016?  (John Starks/Daily Herald)

Moving on to the hitting, the 2015 Mets batted .244 as a team, which was only one percentage point ahead of the San Diego Padres, who finished the season with a league-worst .243 team batting average.  However, the Mets finished near the league average in on-base-plus-slugging (OPS), posting a .712 OPS which was just under the league average of .713.  Both numbers improved when there were runners in scoring position, as the Mets batted .252 with a .736 OPS in RISP situations.

The same thing could be said for the 1973 squad, a team that batted .246 overall with a .653 OPS in all situations during the regular season.  But when there were runners in scoring position, those numbers increased to .254 and .702, respectively.  A year later, the 1974 club could only manage a .238 batting average and .644 OPS with runners in scoring position.  Both of those numbers were worse than what the 1973 squad put up in all situations.

By not being able to drive in runners from second or third base, the 1974 team put more pressure on their pitchers to allow fewer runs and the moundsmen were not up to the task, as Tom Seaver posted the first non-winning season of his career and Jon Matlack had a 13-15 won-loss record despite his 2.41 ERA and seven complete-game shutouts.  The 2016 Mets must continue to drive in runners when they reach scoring position.  If they lose Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the two players must be replaced with guys who are effective in RISP situations.

Another crucial hitting situation is the one that involves a runner on third base with two outs, where a hitter cannot settle for a fly ball to drive in the runner as he would when there are fewer than two men out.  In 2015, the Mets were not very good in these situations, batting .209 with a .648 OPS.  However, the 1974 squad would have loved to have had that type of production with two outs and a runner on third.  That team batted just .198 and had a measly .547 OPS when those situations occurred - a far cry from the .236/.652 marks the team put up in its pennant-winning 1973 campaign.  The .209/.648 performance by the 2015 club with a runner on third and two outs was not very good and must be improved in 2016 if the team wants to compete for another postseason berth.  If those numbers get any worse, the team could be looking at a sequel to the 1974 season.

Finally, let's look at the Mets' ability to win close games.  The 2015 team was 25-24 in games decided by one run, went 9-6 in extra-inning affairs and only lost four games via the walk-off.  All of those numbers are quite acceptable.  The 1973 pennant-winning Mets - a team that finished the regular season with an 82-79 record - wasn't nearly as good as their 2015 counterparts in close games, as they went 31-32 in one-run contests, 7-12 in extra innings and 6-9 in walk-off games.  However, those numbers were superior to what the Mets produced in 1974 - a year in which they finished 17-36 in one-run games, 4-16 in extra-inning contests and 3-14 in games that ended on a walk-off.  Clearly, the 2016 club must continue to play well in tight ballgames.  To fall as far as the 1974 squad did in the late innings and in extra innings would be disastrous.

The 2015 Mets went places that no one expected them to go.  Although they fell just short of a World Series title, they have the pieces in place to make another run at the team's third championship.  But they can't fall into the trap that befell the 1974 Mets.  That team had a closer that was overused in the previous pennant-winning campaign, could not keep opponents off the scoreboard in the late innings, had difficulty driving in runs with runners in scoring position and was absolutely useless in getting runners in from third base when the other team needed one out to get out of the inning.  The 1974 club followed up their World Series-losing season by winning 71 games.

The 2016 squad still has many players who participated in all or most of the six straight losing seasons the team recorded from 2009 to 2014.  Although those players have wonderful memories of 2015, the memories of those sub-.500 campaigns are also still fresh in their minds.  Next year's team should look at what happened in 1974 and learn from that team's mistakes so as not to repeat history.  Terry Collins cannot overuse Jeurys Familia next year.  Sandy Alderson has to put together a bullpen that will not give up run after run in the late innings, a la the 1974 squad.  And the team has to show that even with the potential loss of Murphy and Cespedes, it can drive in runs in critical situations.

A dropoff in several key categories and positions killed the Mets' chances to return to the World Series in 1974.  It can do the same for the 2016 team.  Alderson, Collins and the players have to make sure the Mets don't repeat the past if they want to be successful in the future.

Cram All You Want, You'll Still Lose With The Mets

Every once in a while, I'll find a statistic or story about a Mets player that's so far out there, I have to share it.  Similarly, on occasion I'll think of a title for a blog post that will go over everyone's head until they actually read the piece.  And sometimes those two worlds collide.  Today is one of those days.

About a month and a half ago, I wrote a piece on Anthony Young, the Mets pitcher who set a major league record by losing 27 consecutive decisions.  However, the Mets didn't lose every game he appeared in during his losing streak.  From the time his skein began on May 6, 1992 until he recorded his 27th straight loss on July 24, 1993, Young appeared in 77 games, making 17 starts and appearing in relief 60 times.  The Mets actually won 25 of those 77 games, but Young did not receive credit for a victory in any of those contests.

This morning, I woke up with Young on my mind and decided to do some research on which Mets player appeared in the most games without ever celebrating a victory after any of those affairs.  Well, thanks to the good folks who run the Baseball Musings Day-By-Day Database, I have my answer.  Now excuse me while I "cram" this information into your brain.

The name is Cram.  Jerry Cram.

Entering the 2015 season, a total of 62 players have appeared in at least one game for the Mets without ever going out for a winning hot dog and soda afterwards.  Of those 62 players, more than half of them (37) appeared in no more than three games for the team - all losses, of course.  But only four of those 62 players found their way into a game's boxscore at least 11 times.  And of those four, the Met who appeared in the most losses without ever seeing a win did so 14 times.  The unfortunate player's name was Jerry Cram.

Jerry Cram made his major league debut for the expansion Kansas City Royals in 1969, appearing in five games.  The Royals actually won two of those games, probably spoiling Cram for life.  He didn't appear in another major league game until 1974, a year after he had been traded to the Mets.

Cram pitched beautifully for the Mets in two seasons with the team, posting a 2.30 ERA in 14 relief appearances, tossing 27⅓ innings in those outings.  His greatest effort came on September 11, 1974, when he pitched eight shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals.  Cram entered the game in the 17th inning and pitched through the 24th frame, scattering seven hits and two walks.  He also went 1-for-3 at the plate, collecting the only hit of his career in the 18th inning.

Once Cram was taken out of the game for pinch-hitter Rusty Staub in the bottom of the 24th, the Cardinals took advantage, as speedy center fielder Bake McBride led off the top of the 25th inning with a single, then came all the way around to score on an errant pickoff throw by reliever Hank Webb, who was making his first appearance of the season for the Mets.  Webb's battery mate, Ron Hodges, was charged with the team's second error on the play, as he was unable to hold on to the throw by first baseman John Milner, allowing McBride to score the go-ahead run.

The Mets lost the game in 25 innings, which to this day remains the longest game in National League history that did not end in a tie.  (Brooklyn and Boston played a 26-inning affair in 1920 that ended in a 1-1 tie.)  The game was also Cram's fifth appearance for the Mets in 1974, with all of them ending in losses.  Cram appeared in five more games that month following his eight-inning relief effort and never celebrated a victory with his teammates.  The Mets went 0-10 in Cram's ten appearances in 1974.

Cram didn't appear in as many games during his second season with the Mets in 1975, making just four relief appearances for the team in April and May.  Once again, the Mets failed to win any of those games.  In fact, in all 14 of his games during his two-year tour of duty in Flushing, Cram never pitched with the lead.  Three times he entered a game with the score tied - the Mets eventually lost each game - and 11 times he came into a game with the Mets trailing.  They were trailing at the end of those games as well.

Three pitchers in Mets history appeared in exactly 11 games with nary a happy recap to show for it.  Jerry Hinsley made two starts and seven relief appearances for the Mets in 1964, then came out of the bullpen twice in 1967.  The only constant in Hinsley's career was that he only pitched in games the Mets lost.  Hinsley was a teammate of Joe Grzenda in 1967.  Like Hinsley, Grzenda was also used exclusively in relief during the 1967 campaign, making 11 appearances.  Each of those contests ended with the other team shaking hands after the game.  Finally, we have Collin McHugh, who made five starts and appeared in relief six times for the Mets between 2012 and 2013.

Collin McHugh fell short of Cram's mark.

McHugh pitched seven shutout innings in his major league debut, becoming the second Met to strike out as many as nine batters in his first big league start (Matt Harvey set the record with 11 strikeouts a month before McHugh.)  But unlike Harvey's effort in his debut, McHugh didn't earn a win in his, as no Mets hitter was able to cross the plate while McHugh - or any other Mets pitcher - was in the game.  That was as close as McHugh came to appearing in a Mets victory, as his next ten appearances in a Mets uniform resulted in ten losses for the team.  Now pitching for the Houston Astros, McHugh has left the losing behind, as he won 11 games in 2014 and posted a stellar 2.73 ERA in 25 starts.  Although the Astros finished 22 games under .500 in 2014, they posted a winning record (13-12) in McHugh's starts.

Hinsley, Grzenda and McHugh never appeared in a game won by the Mets, but at least they weren't as unlucky as Jerry Cram.  He and his teammates all experienced the agony of defeat in each of Cram's 14 appearances in a Mets uniform.  And for those of you curious about what happened to Cram after he pitched his final game for the Mets in 1975, well, he went back to Kansas City to pitch for a much-improved Royals team in 1976.  Kansas City won its division in 1976, finishing the year with a 90-72 record.  Cram appeared in four games for the A.L. West champions.  What happened in those games?  The Royals lost them all, meaning Cram never got to experience a victory in a game he pitched after the 1969 season.

Anthony Young lost 27 straight decisions, but at least his teams won 25 times when he took the mound during his 14-month streak of individual futility.  Jerry Cram probably wished he could have had Young's good fortune as a Met.
 

Hoping The 2013 Mets Don't Turn Into The 1974 Mets

In 1973, the Mets won the National League pennant despite a mediocre 82-79 record.  They did so with a light-hitting catcher in Jerry Grote (.256, 1 HR, 32 RBI), a first baseman (John Milner) who led the team in home runs but left a lot to be desired in the batting average department (.239, 23 HR, 72 RBI) and a 29-year-old with multiple All-Star Game appearances (Rusty Staub) who led the team in doubles, RBIs and on-base percentage.  They also played musical chairs in the outfield, with only one player (Staub) collecting more than 400 at-bats.

On the pitching side of things, the Mets had that year's Cy Young Award winner on their starting staff (Tom Seaver) who led the league in strikeouts and complete games.  Unfortunately, they also had a bullpen that left a lot to be desired, as closer Tug McGraw's ERA was near 4.00 (a high number for that era) and six other relievers had ERAs north of 6.00.

The team did not do much to improve their roster that off-season, despite obvious flaws with the offense and bullpen.  As a result, the 1974 Mets faded miserably, finishing the year with a 71-91 record - their first losing mark since 1968 and their first 90-loss campaign since Tom Seaver's rookie season one year earlier.

Although the Mets recovered to post two winning seasons in 1975 and 1976, the cracks were clearly visible on a team that had won two pennants and one World Series championship over a five-year stretch.  The death of Joan Whitney Payson and the rise of M. Donald Grant to power ushered in a dark era in Mets baseball that lasted for almost a decade.

Why is this important now in 2012?  Because if the Mets aren't careful, history could repeat itself in 2013.

Like their 1973 counterparts (minus the pennant, of course), the 2012 Mets employed a light-hitting catcher (Josh Thole), a first baseman who led the team in homers but had a low batting average (Ike Davis) and a 29-year-old All-Star who paced the team in a number of the major offensive categories (David Wright).  In the outfield, only one player (Lucas Duda) reached the 400 at-bat plateau.  Similarly, the 2012 Mets also produced the Cy Young Award winner who led the league in strikeouts and complete games (R.A. Dickey) and had a bullpen that left a lot to be desired (you name him, he probably sucked).

Let's look at the 1973 and 2012 Mets, position by position, to see the eerie similarities in their production:


Catcher
Jerry Grote: .256, 1 HR, 32 RBI, .294 OBP
Josh Thole: .234, 1 HR, 21 RBI, .290 OBP

First Base
John Milner: .239, 23 HR, 72 RBI, team leader in strikeouts
Ike Davis: .227, 32 HR, 90 RBI, team leader in strikeouts

Second Base
Felix Millan: .290, 3 HR, 37 RBI, .332 OBP
Daniel Murphy: .291, 6 HR, 65 RBI, .332 OBP

Shortstop
Bud Harrelson: .258, 0 HR, 20 RBI, .348 OBP
Ruben Tejada: .289, 1 HR, 25 RBI, .333 OBP

Third Base
Wayne Garrett: .256, 16 HR, 58 RBI, team leader in stolen bases
David Wright: .306, 21 HR, 93 RBI, team leader in stolen bases

Outfield
Cleon Jones, Don Hahn, Rusty Staub, Willie Mays (combined stats): .254, 34 HR, 170 RBI
Jason Bay, Andres Torres, Lucas Duda, Scott Hairston (combined stats): .233, 46 HR, 169 RBI

Starting Pitcher (Ace)
Tom Seaver: 19-10, 2.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 251 Ks, Cy Young Award
R.A. Dickey: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 230 Ks, Cy Young Award

Starting Pitcher (Next Three)
Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, George Stone (combined stats): 40-34, 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 438 Ks
Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, Dillon Gee (combined stats): 25-25, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 363 Ks

Closer
Tug McGraw: 25 saves, 3.87 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Frank Francisco: 23 saves, 5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP



Pretty similar in many categories, huh?  The 1973 Mets were fortunate to play in one of the weakest divisions of all time and used it to their advantage.  The 2012 Mets were not as lucky, as they were stuck in the same division as the team with the best regular season record in baseball (Washington) and the top wild card team (Atlanta).

After coming within one win of their second World Series title, the Mets went into the 1974 season with high expectations but the same players.  Almost all of them underachieved.

John Milner had fewer homers and RBIs in 1974 even though he had 57 more plate appearances.  Wayne Garrett's numbers went down across the board, except for his strikeouts, which went up by 30%.  Rusty Staub's batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all decreased from his 1973 numbers.  No starter hit higher than Cleon Jones' .282, and Felix Millan was the only other starter who hit higher than .258.  The team finished last or next-to-last in the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs scored, hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases.  In other words, they stunk more than the swamp Shea Stadium was built on.

Even during the 1973 World Series, John Milner could tell that things were going to stink in 1974.

Because of the lack of hitting, Tom Seaver finished with his first non-winning season, going 11-11 despite a 3.20 ERA and his standard 200-plus strikeout season.  Jon Matlack tossed seven shutouts and had a stellar 2.41 ERA.  All that got him was a 13-15 record.  The bullpen was atrocious, with Harry Parker and Tug McGraw combining to pitch 61 games in relief.  They finished with seven saves and 23 losses.

The combination of weak hitting and subpar relief pitching caused the Mets to go from the penthouse to the outhouse in the span of one season.  The 2012 Mets were nowhere near the penthouse.  However, they only won eight fewer regular season games than their 1973 counterparts with a lineup and bullpen that was eerily similar to the pennant winners.

The 2013 Mets won't begin their season for another four months, but already there are rumblings that the team will go through another losing season.  The front office has to improve the offense.  They also have to put together a relief corps that will at the very least be serviceable instead of the human land mines that trotted out to the mound in 2012.

The 1974 team was a portent of things to come.  The 2013 team can't repeat history.  It's already been a dark first four seasons at Citi Field.  The light switch has to come on sooner or later (preferably sooner).

A Look Back At Other Poor Starts In Mets History

The Mets have started the 2011 season on a low note, to say the least. After suffering their seventh consecutive defeat last night (their 10th loss in 11 games), the Mets dropped to 4-11 on the year. The last place Metropolitans now stand six games behind the first place Phillies and three games behind fourth place Washington.

For only the fifth time in franchise history, the Mets have failed to win at least five of their first 15 games. It is the first time the Mets have accomplished this feat in 30 years (see list below).

• 1962: 3-12
• 1964: 3-12
• 1974: 4-11
• 1981: 4-11

The 1962 Mets were the first team to start off poorly. That pattern continued throughout the season, as the team finished with a major league record 120 losses. They finished 60 games behind the first place San Francisco Giants in the National League. (The league was not split up into divisions until 1969.)

In 1964, the Mets replicated their start from their inaugural season, losing 12 of their first 15 games. This time, the Mets were able to turn it around and finish with the best record in franchise history up to that point. Of course, when a 53-109 record represents your best season, that's not saying much.

The 1974 Mets were coming off their second National League pennant. After overachieving for the final five weeks of the 1973 regular season and the postseason, the Mets took underachieving to a new level in 1974. Despite boasting a pitching staff of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack, the offense hit the snooze button all year, finishing last or next-to-last in the league in batting average, runs scored, doubles, triples and stolen bases. They parlayed that poor start into a 71-91 season, their first losing season since 1968.

The 1981 season was cut short by the players' strike, but the season didn't stop soon enough for the Mets. A year after the Mets proclaimed that the magic was back, the same old Mets popped out of the magician's hat in 1981. The Mets finished 41-62 in the strike-shortened 1981 season, their fifth consecutive season with a losing record.

No Met team since 1981 had started out with a record of 4-11 or worse until this year's edition. All four of the previous teams to start off so poorly finished at least 20 games under .500 and in last place or next-to-last place.

The 2011 Mets are now the fifth team in franchise history to win no more than four of their first 15 games. If they don't turn it around quickly, it looks as if the team that was supposed to pay homage to the 1986 Mets will end up honoring their 1962, 1964, 1974 and 1981 counterparts instead.