Matt Harvey Could Make History, and Not In a Good Way

Looks like an Unhappy Harvey Day.  (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Matt Harvey's fall from All-Star Game starting pitcher to oft-injured, in-game batting practice pitcher has been well documented.  A year after going 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.468 WHIP, Harvey has somehow gotten worse.  Much, much worse.  In fact, if he doesn't show any kind of progress in his final few starts, he stands to make Mets history, and it's not the kind of history any pitcher would ever want to be associated with.

In 16 starts this season, Harvey has seen his ERA and WHIP go up to 6.14 and 1.574, respectively.  Should Harvey fail to lower his ERA under 6.00 before the end of the campaign, he would join an exclusive club.  How exclusive would it be?  Let's just say no one has been allowed to enter it yet.

Thanks to the baseball-reference.com Play Index, Pete Schourek and Matt Harvey can be mentioned in the same sentence.

Prior to Harvey's 2017 campaign, Pete Schourek was the Mets pitcher who came closest to posting an ERA north of 6.00 with at least 16 starts.  But Schourek's 5.96 ERA in 1993 was crafted as both a starter and reliever.  In Schourek's eighteen starts, he posted a 5.47 ERA, compared to the embarrassing 7.86 ERA he had in 23 relief appearances for the last Mets team to reach triple digits in losses.

Now if we only consider those Mets hurlers who made all of their appearances in a starting role, the closest one to Harvey is a another former ace whose career in New York was beleaguered by injuries.

What is it with guys named Pete or the Spanish equivalent of Pete and high ERAs?  Is Harvey secretly a Pete in disguise?

Harvey is not the only Mets starter this season to suffer from injuries, poor performance or a combination of the two.  Zack Wheeler had a 5.21 ERA in 17 starts before injuries curtailed his season.  Robert Gsellman is the owner of an unsightly 5.58 ERA in 19 starts and three relief appearances.  And had Steven Matz's season not come to a close after just 13 starts, he'd be in line to join Harvey in the Mile High ERA club (Matz finished the year with a 6.08 ERA).

But as awful as Mets pitchers have been this year, no pitcher in the 56-year history of the franchise who made as many as 16 starts has ever finished a season with an ERA higher than 6.00.  That may change when the curtain falls on the 2017 baseball season in a couple of weeks.  And a former Dark Knight could be facing some dark nights of his own during the off-season as he reflects upon his historically bad campaign.

 

The Magic 8-Ball Predicts The 2016 Mets Season

Last year, for the first time in seven seasons, the Mets produced a winning record.  They also won their first division title since James Blunt told us that we were beautiful and Shakira claimed her hips didn't lie.  And of course, New York appeared in a World Series for the first time since a month before hanging chads opened our eyes and entered the lexicon.

But like Mark McGwire standing before Congress and unlike Yankees fans standing before Mets fans, we're not here to talk about the past.  Rather, we're here to discuss what we expect from the Mets during the upcoming 2016 campaign.  And who better to talk about future events than our old pal, the Magic 8-Ball?

Of course, our sarcastic sphere has been a persnickety prognosticator since we first used its services in 2010, quicker with an insult than with a prediction.  However, our round plastic friend has also been correct on several topics, meaning we can depend on it just as much as we can count on Jonathan Papelbon being a douche.

So let's stop yapping and let's bring in the ball that knows it all.  Straight outta the box, it's the Magic 8-Ball!  Welcome back, M8B!

Um ... yeah.  That's not quite the response I expected from you.  Is everything okay, my friend?

That's a very good reason for you to be happy.  Although "happy" and "Magic 8-Ball" don't usually go hand-in-hand.  Are you absolutely sure you're well enough to answer my questions today?  After all, Mets fans have been anxiously waiting all winter for what you have to say.  To them, you're like the Punxsutawney Phil of predictors.

That's absolutely right.  Although it sounds strange hearing that from you.  Anyway, let's just start with the questions.  I'll wonder whether you have a concussion or not after we're done.  Do you think the Mets' starting pitching will be as good on the field as it is on paper?

That's great to hear.  Who do you think will emerge as the top pitcher in the rotation?

And what has Syndergaard shown you to make you feel this way?

That's true.  Anyone who appreciates Bartolo Colon's veteran presence as much as Thor does should definitely pick up a thing or two on how to be a successful pitcher in the major leagues.  And speaking of successful pitchers, what are your thoughts on Jacob deGrom losing some of the velocity on his fastball?

Really?  Wouldn't that make it easier for opposing hitters to catch up to his heater?

Ergonomically correct?  I don't understand what you mean by that.

Ah, I gotcha now.  He'll be able to pinpoint his pitches better if his luscious locks don't flow freely across his face as he releases the ball.  That's some good outside the box thinking by you.

Good point.  Now, we've discussed Syndergaard and deGrom.  We also know from past experience that Matt Harvey will give you the finger if you believe he's not going to have a successful season.  But what about Steven Matz?  He only made six regular season starts last year and suffered his first loss at the big league level in the postseason.  Opposing hitters batted .283 against him in the playoffs, which was not very impressive.  Are you concerned about him as he enters his first full season in the majors?

That's incredibly optimistic of you.  I mean, he got hurt last year.  He was pitching in and out of jams in the postseason.  And he was inconsistent in Grapefruit League action this year.  What makes you so sure he'll able to pitch effectively for the Mets this season?

Don't mess with the family or you're gonna get whacked.  Got it.  (Even though I thought Grandpa Bert was a good fella.)

Let's move on to the offense now.  Sandy Alderson did what no sane person thought he could do; he re-signed Yoenis Cespedes to a team-friendly contract.  In addition to adding switch hitters Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera to the team, plus the first full season of Michael Conforto in a Mets uniform, does this make the Mets one of the top offensive teams in the National League?

Why does it have to?  No one can know for certain how Cespedes, Walker, Cabrera and Conforto will handle their first full seasons in Mets uniforms.

That's true.  The Mets should have a better lineup by default when they're competing against the likes of the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Padres, etc.

Speaking of bats that aren't healthy, what are your feelings on David Wright?  His lifetime supply of spinal stenosis will surely cause him to miss at least a month's worth of games.  Do you think the Mets will be able to withstand long stretches without their captain in the lineup?

You're very confident with your answer.  Do you really think players such as Wilmer Flores will be able to fill Wright's shoes both offensively and defensively?  What will the Mets do if Flores doesn't perform well when he eventually has to fill in for Wright?

It worked before.  Can't see why it wouldn't work again.  So let's get to the good part.  What's your final prediction for the Mets' record this year?

Wow!  After so many years of you predicting doom and gloom for the Mets, I certainly wasn't expecting that.  Do you truly think they're going to win it all this year?  What will propel them to October (and perhaps November) glory?

Wait, don't you mean Zack Wheeler?  He's the one returning from Tommy John surgery on or around the first of July.  And isn't Sidd Finch a fictional character?  If I recall, he was just part of an elaborate April Fool's joke.  What are you trying to say?

Wait, so you weren't being sincere with your answers?  Even after I voiced my pleasure at receiving honest responses from you?

I guess I'm the fool on this early April day.

And on that note, I think it's best if we bid adieu to the Magic 8-Ball for another season, as we wonder if the Mets are really going to win 98 regular season games and 11 more in the postseason to win their third World Series championship.  It's certainly possible that the team with the best starting rotation in baseball and an offense that's among the best and deepest in the National League can take the crown after coming within three wins of a title last year.  We'll just have to wait until the fall to see which of the Magic 8-Ball's predictions were a hoax and which, if any, were legitimate.  Because just like someone who claims to be a lifelong Marlins fan, it's tough to believe anything the Magic 8-Ball says.

That's all for this year's predictions.  Hopefully, you're all as ready for the upcoming regular season as I am, especially since the 2016 season is sure to be one of the most highly anticipated campaigns in the history of the franchise.  And before I forget, please help control the skullduggerous sphere population.  Have your Magic 8-Ball spayed or neutered.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  The Magic 8-Ball has been making predictions since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the previous six seasons, please click on the links below:

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

Mets Already Have Enough Offense to Win 90+ Games

There's a veritable All-Star team of unsigned free agent hitters heading into the new year.  Players like Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Denard Span, Dexter Fowler and yes, even Yoenis Cespedes are still available for any team to sign.  The Mets have signed two free agents in shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Alejandro De Aza.  They also traded for second baseman Neil Walker.

All signs point to the Mets being done as far as bringing in another big-name hitter is concerned.  This has made a number of Mets fans unhappy, as they claim that the team is not much better than it was last spring and early summer, when it struggled to stay above .500 until Sandy Alderson acquired Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cespedes.  But I disagree with those complaining fans.  In fact, as long as the Mets don't have a 1987-like epidemic of injuries to their pitchers, the team as constructed today should surpass last season's 90-win total.  Here's why.

Three men and a beanie.  (Screen shot courtesy of ESPN E:60)

In 2015, the brilliant quartet of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz combined to start 89 of the team's 162 games.  The Mets' record in those games was 55-34.  When someone other than the fearsome foursome started, the team went 35-38.  But several of those games occurred after Michael Conforto was promoted from the minors, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe were acquired and most importantly, Yoenis Cespedes was brought into the fold.  Once those four hitters joined the team, the team's offense was far better.

Conforto made his major league debut on July 24.  Johnson and Uribe made their first appearances with the Mets a day later.  And Cespedes wore blue and orange for the first time on August 1.  The day before Conforto made his debut, the Mets' record was 49-47.  So let's look at how the team fared in those 96 pre-offensive upgrade games when deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz were on the mound and compare it to how they did in the team's final 66 games.  Let's also see what the club's record was when the other starting pitchers (Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, etc.) took the hill in both instances.

• Jacob deGrom - First 96 games: (11-7);  Last 66 games: (9-3)
• Matt Harvey - First 96 games: (10-8);  Last 66 games: (7-4)
• Noah Syndergaard - First 96 games: (6-7);  Last 66 games: (7-4)
• Steven Matz - First 96 games: (2-0);  Last 66 games: (3-1)

In the days before Conforto, Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes were on the team, the young core of homegrown starting pitchers combined to start 51 of the club's 96 games.  The Mets had a 29-22 record in those games, for a .569 winning percentage.  The team did not fare as well when the other starters were on the mound in the first 96 games, going 20-25 (.444 winning percentage) in those 45 contests.

In the final 66 games, when the offense was among the best in the game, the Mets went 26-12 in games started by deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz.  They also had a winning record in games not started by those four hurlers, going 15-13 in those 28 affairs.

Think about that for a moment.  The Mets were 90-72 during the 2015 regular season.  That's a .556 winning percentage.  Yet through July 24, when the likes of Michael Cuddyer, Eric Campbell, John Mayberry Jr., Darrell Ceciliani and Kevin Plawecki were starting games regularly, the team had a .569 winning percentage when deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz started games with those offensively-challenged players in the lineup.  That's a 92-win pace.

After starting just 89 games for the Mets in 2015, the big four may combine to start around 120 games for the team in 2016, with deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard no longer having innings limits, which could allow them to make 32 or 33 starts each.  Although Cabrera, Walker and De Aza are not going to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers the way Cespedes did in August and September, those three players are clearly better with the bat than Campbell, Cuddyer and Mayberry were during the first four months of the 2015 campaign.

(Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports)

While it's true that Daniel Murphy is no longer a Met, don't forget that Michael Conforto is going be a Met for the entire 2016 season instead of just the final third of the campaign as he was in 2015.  Conforto should hit for a high average, have more power and draw more walks than Murphy did (Conforto drew 57 walks in 597 plate appearances between the majors and minors in 2015; Murphy never walked more than 39 times in any season).  And also don't forget that Syndergaard and Matz didn't begin the year with the Mets either.  They're both poised to begin their first full season in New York in 2016.

So let's review.

When deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz started games for the Mets in 2015 with their offensively-challenged lineup backing them up, the team won nearly 57% of its games.  But they only started 51 of the team's first 96 games, or barely more than half of those games.  Now, barring unexpected injuries, those four pitchers are going to start 80% of the team's games in 2016, with Zack Wheeler ready to contribute by mid-season.  The offense doesn't have the Daniel Murphys and Yoenis Cespedeses of this world, but it will have a full season of Conforto, as well as Cabrera, Walker and De Aza taking at-bats that would have gone to lesser hitters during the first four months of the 2015 campaign.

Just repeating the .569 winning percentage the Mets had in starts made by deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard and Matz during the pre-Cespedes portion of 2015 would give the team 92 wins in 2016.  But more starts from those four pitchers in 2016, plus Zack Wheeler's return, which makes the bullpen deeper once Bartolo Colon moves there, added to a full season of Michael Conforto's production, while subtracting Cuddyer, Campbell, Mayberry, et al., from the equation should give the Mets a wonderful chance to have a higher win total than they did when they captured the N.L. East crown by seven games in 2015.

So you see, the Mets don't need to add any more top bats to what some people still consider a weak lineup.  They already have what it takes to improve upon last season's memorable performance and make another triumphant return to the postseason.

Jeers: Where Everybody Knows Your Trainer's Name

A week ago, the Mets embarked on a West Coast road trip after being swept by the Chicago Cubs at home.  The trip began with the Mets sitting a season-high 4½ games out of first place in the National League East.  However, after a 4-2 sojourn in Los Angeles and San Francisco, coupled with Friday night's "welcome home" win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets now find themselves just two games behind the first place Washington Nationals with two games to play before the All-Star Break.

Normally, that would be enough to cause even the most pessimistic Mets fans to crack a smile, or at the very least show off their best Lucas Duda grin.  But no.  The Mets just had to mess up Steven Matz's first month in the big leagues by allowing him to pitch last Sunday at Dodger Stadium after he complained of stiffness near his left armpit following his masterful debut appearance on June 28.

That's the left one.  The armpit he pitches with.  (Well, you know what I mean.)

Some of the blame for the injury could be placed on Terry Collins, who allowed Matz to throw 110 pitches in his debut and 101 more in his second start, after Matz had yet to surpass 100 pitches in any of his 15 starts with AAA-Las Vegas earlier this year.  But that would be the easy person to blame.  It's a lot more fun to blame Mets trainer Ray Ramirez.

See that press release up there?  That snippet was at the very bottom of the formal announcement made by the Mets when Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph decided on the team's coaching staff shortly after both men were hired to be the club's general manager and manager, respectively.  It was just an afterthought.  And look at some of the pertinent information on it.

• Ramirez earned a Master's Degree in Sports Medicine.

• Ramirez was certified by the National Athletic Trainers Association three decades ago.

Ramirez got a Master's Degree to do what he's doing for a living.  And he's been certified to put Mets players on the disabled list since a time when most of his current Mets victims weren't even alive.  No wonder this was all listed at the bottom of the press release.  The Mets didn't want us to know they were bringing in Dr. Death himself.

Dr. Death (as he's been called on Twitter by many trainer-phobic Mets fans) has never been liked by the masses since the team moved to Citi Field in 2009.  Anyone who has attended the Mets' home opener each year can vouch for that, as the most thunderous boos are usually reserved for Ramirez during the pre-game introductions.

But even if the plethora of injuries or the misdiagnosis of other maladies have nothing to do with Ramirez (let's just say they do), it's obvious that there's something wrong with the team's strength and conditioning practices when they lead to so many trips to the disabled list for those unfortunate souls who wear a Mets uniform for a living.

Let's just say this about Ray Ramirez.  People know his name.  And if you're doing your job correctly as a team trainer, no one should know who you are by name, even if you have your own baseball card that says your name is "Ray Ramirez, Trainer".

Dr. Death before receiving his PhD in deathdom.

When Gary Portnoy and Judy Hart Angelo wrote "Where Everybody Knows Your Name", the song that became the classic theme to the long-running television show, "Cheers", they had no idea that the song could also be applied to Ray Ramirez.

The song's co-writers began the catchy ditty with the following lyric:

"Making your way in the world today

takes everything you've got.

Taking a break from all your worries

sure would help a lot.

Wouldn’t you like to get away?"

Ramirez took everything he had to make his way in the world today.  The problem is that now he's adding to Mets fans' worries by breaking Mets players.  To be honest, it would sure help a lot if Ray Ramirez just got away.

Mets fans know Ray Ramirez's name even though he's just the team's head trainer.  Fans shouldn't know his name.  And unlike the song, those fans are not always glad he came.  When Ramirez tends to a fallen Met, the troubles are all the same.  We just want to go back to a time when no one knew the trainer's name.  (For the record, the trainer prior to Ramirez was Scott Lawrenson.  I'll bet you had forgotten his name.  It's probably because he did his job properly.)

Like many other players who have been knocked to the mat and stayed down, Steven Matz won't be coming off the 15-day disabled list in 15 days.  As a result, there will be no cheers for Matz at Citi Field anytime soon.  But there will continue to be jeers directed at the Mets and Ray Ramirez in particular for the way the team conditions its players.

Sometimes it seems as if Dr. Death is the only person on the team who never gets injured.

 *************

On a related and sad note, Roger Rees, who played Robin Colcord on "Cheers", passed away last night at the age of 71.  The late actor gained fame as the title character in "The Life and Adventures of Nicholas Nickleby", a role that earned him the Tony Award for Best Actor in a Play in 1983.  Everybody will always remember Roger Rees's name.  May he rest in peace.

*************

The Future Is Now For The Mets

The recent past has not been kind to the New York Mets.  Since opening its new ballpark in 2009, the team has given its fan base a state-of-the-art facility, delicious food options, Free Shirt Fridays and six consecutive losing seasons. 

The Mets left Shea Stadium in 2008 and apparently also left their winning ways in the rubble of their former home.  General managers Omar Minaya and Sandy Alderson tried to give fans hope by signing veteran players like Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Bay, Jose Valverde and both Chris Youngs.  But none of those players were able to repeat the successes they had as younger players.  Other than the Bartolo Colon signing by Alderson, neither general manager had much success when it came to the veteran players they chose to sign as free agents.  Fortunately, they had success in other areas.  And those areas are now paying great dividends for the Mets.

They may not have always looked sure of themselves, but at least Minaya and Alderson got something right.

Omar Minaya may have been responsible for some off-the-wall signings and inexcusable long-term deals, but no one can complain about his skills at drafting amateur players.  Gold Glove winner Juan Lagares was a Minaya guy, as was 30-homer hitter Lucas Duda.  From a pitching standpoint, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Jeurys Familia are all pitching at an All-Star level for the Mets.  All three standout pitchers were brought aboard by Minaya.

Similarly, Sandy Alderson has tried throwing a potpourri of players on the proverbial wall to see which ones will stick, but most of them have turned into former pitcher and current semi-pro football player Kyle Farnsworth.  Where Alderson has excelled is in the wheeling and dealing department, as he has completed several shrewd trades of veteran players for young talent.

Zack Wheeler was Alderson's first big acquisition, and although Wheeler will not pitch in 2015 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, he was a key contributor in 2014 and figures to continue to bolster the starting rotation once he returns in 2016.  Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard became property of the Mets following Alderson's second year as the team's GM, even though the team had to part with a popular Cy Young Award winner in R.A. Dickey.  Dickey has since become the definition of mediocre in Toronto (29-29, 4.00 ERA in 74 starts), while d'Arnaud has established himself as an offensive threat for the Mets behind the plate and Syndergaard is about to make his major league debut on Tuesday after blasting his way through Triple-A lineups in 2015.

But the Alderson guy who has given the most to the Mets even after he announced his retirement from baseball is John Buck.  Buck was a throw-in in the same deal that brought d'Arnaud and Syndergaard to the Mets.  A tremendous first month with the team in 2013 - Buck had ten homers and 29 RBI in his first 23 starts - made Buck trade bait in July, as Alderson sent Buck and right fielder Marlon Byrd, who was having an offensive renaissance of his own in New York, to Pittsburgh in exchange for reliever Vic Black and second baseman Dilson Herrera.  Black pitched beautifully out of the bullpen for the Mets in 2014 (2.60 ERA, 8.3 K/9 IP in 41 appearances) and figures to continue in that role once he recovers from a herniated disc in his neck.  Meanwhile, Herrera is currently the team's second baseman until David Wright returns from the disabled list.  But after collecting three homers and 11 RBI in an 18-game tryout last season, Herrera is doing even better in his first week back with the Mets, posting a .263/.333/.474 slash line in six games after torching Triple-A pitchers to the tune of a .370 batting average and nine extra-base hits in 20 games prior to his call-up.

William Shakespeare wrote in "The Tempest" that "what's past is prologue".  The past has certainly been quite tempestuous for the Mets and their fans, especially since the team moved from Shea Stadium to Citi Field.  But events of that past, particularly the amateur drafts and international signings overseen by Omar Minaya and the trades orchestrated by Sandy Alderson for top prospects, are now serving as a prologue for the winning baseball that is currently being seen at Citi Field.  With an 18-11 record, the Mets have been in first place for most of the season.  Their lead in the National League East has not been below 3½ games since April 21.  And most of their success has been due to young players who project to be part of the team's future for years to come.

The Mets struggled to be relevant for six long years.  Those tumultuous half-dozen seasons are now in the past.  Fans have looked forward to the future for much too long.  The future is now meeting the present with the call-up of Noah Syndergaard, who joins players like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Juan Lagares and Dilson Herrera to form what could be the core of winning Mets teams well into the next decade.  (And let's not forget Steven Matz, who should also make his major league debut at some point in 2015.)

It's a good time to be a Mets fan.  And the present success of the team bodes well for the club as it continues to march toward what appears to be more and more like a bright future.