Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Division Series Picks

Minnesota hit the target (the outfield seats) a major-league record 307 times.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

Hey, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, and it's time to share my picks for the American and National League Division Series.  As usual, none of these picks will be biased because I'd lose all my credibility if they were.  You know, kinda like when the Wilpons lose their credibility as big-market owners every year during free agent signing season.

All my picks will be based as endless data that I've pored over for days.  I've considered pitching matchups, weather factors, if a stadium favors one team over another, and who's playing that team from the Bronx.  All of that information has led me to pick four winners who will compete in the League Championship Series.

Who will advance?  Will Minnesota do what no Twins team has done before in October against the Yankees?  Will the Nationals finally win a playoff series?  (Don't you dare say they just did.  They won the Wild Card Game, not the Wild Card Series.)  Will Houston have a problem against Tampa Bay?  And will I watch any games in the series featuring the last two teams to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS (Braves in 1999, Cardinals in 2006)?

The time has come for me to share my Division Series picks.


National League Division Series

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

I'm only picking the winner of this series because I have to, not because I want to.  Both teams have been a thorn in the Mets' side over the years, so I'm not particularly thrilled that one of them is going to play for the right to represent the National League in the World Series.  But I'm a professional, so I'll actually pick a team to win for a reason other than a meteor striking the other team's dugout, frying every player on the roster to a crisp and causing a forfeit.

The Cardinals made the playoffs as a division champion despite having the tenth-best record in the majors.  Their team batting average was only .245 and they had the fourth-fewest homers in the National League.  Their starting rotation is Jack Flaherty and the Mediocre Men.  If you want to argue that Dakota Hudson had a 16-7 record, I'll respond by pointing at his 1.41 WHIP.  Bring up Adam Wainwright and his Death-To-Beltran curveball and I'll show you his 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .782 OPS against him.  Plus, Yadier Molina is playing in his 20th postseason series.  I've had enough of seeing him in October.

Meanwhile, Atlanta earned their trip to the playoff party, winning 97 games and graciously allowing the Mets to sweep them at the end of the season so that New York could finish ten games above .500.  Now that's southern hospitality right there.

Up, up and away. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) 
The Braves have Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr, Ozzie Albies and Josh Donaldson leading the offense, while the rotation of Mike Soroka, Dallas Keuchel, Max Fried and Julio Teheran is among the best in the league.  But those players aren't why I'm leaning towards picking Atlanta.

#VoteMarkakis.  It was cool in 2013.  It's still cool now.  And Nick Markakis - who's advanced to the League Championship Series just once in his 14-year career - is going to make the Cardinals buckle before him.  You know, kinda like what Adam Wainwright did to that future Hall of Famer in 2006.

I'm voting Braves in this series.

Prediction: Braves in 4.


Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Let me begin by bringing up something I mentioned before.  The Nationals have never won a postseason series.  Ever.  They won the Wild Card GAME, not the Wild Card SERIES.  Plus, Wikipedia told me they haven't won a playoff series, and as we all know, if Wikipedia says so, then it must be true.

That being said, the Dodgers have too many weapons for Washington to handle.

Whatever.  (David Crane/LA Daily News)
Cody Bellinger led the Dodgers in hits, walks, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and probably put on a vendor uniform and sold some Dodger Dogs between innings when no one was looking.  He's that talented.  And even when Bellinger had a rare bad night (like going 1-for-4 with a walk), his teammates were there to pick him up.  Joc Pederson and Max Muncy combined for 71 homers.  Corey Seager ripped 44 doubles and drove in 87 runs despite missing 28 games.  And Justin Turner was magically delicious as always, batting .290 and tying a career high with 27 homers.

The Nationals may have the three-headed pitching monster of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, but it was the Dodgers who led the league in ERA and WHIP.  Los Angeles also allowed just 185 home runs, which was the fewest given up by any National League staff.

If that's not enough for you to figure out who I'm picking in this series, consider this.  In using Scherzer for five innings in the Wild Card Game (still not a series) and Strasburg for three frames, neither pitcher will be available to pitch in the first two games of the Division Series, with Scherzer due to start Game Three and Strasburg toiling in Game Four.

In 2012, the Nationals famously shut down Strasburg before he got a chance to pitch in the Division Series.  He's not pitching in this series either, but this time it'll be because the Dodgers are shutting down Strasburg's team.

Prediction: Dodgers in 3.


American League Division Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

The Rays are a great story.  On a budget that would make the Wilpons proud, they've managed to lead the American League in ERA and allowed the fewest long balls in the majors in a year when baseball went homer happy.  They've continued to use an "opener" instead of a starting pitcher to great success, which allowed Tampa to limit its starters' innings to keep their arms fresh.  (Only Charlie Morton worked more than 150 innings this season.)

On the offensive side, the Rays got an incredible year from Austin Meadows, who launched 33 homers in 138 games after hitting just six in 59 games prior to the 2019 campaign.  They also got Travis d'Arnaud to come out of his shell, as he finally reached his potential with the bat just months after he played his final game with the Mets.

As I said, the Rays have been a fantastic story in 2019.  But dude, they're playing the Houston Astros.  And no one is beating a team that has Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke putting up zeroes and Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel blasting balls all over the field.  Oh, and let's not forget shortstop Carlos Correa, who's been injured for most of the season, but still managed to hit 21 homers and put up a .926 OPS in 75 games.  Correa is expected to be ready for Game One of the Division Series.

It was fun while it lasted, Tampa.  But the Astros are a team of destiny.

Prediction: Astros in 4.

Is Jose Altuve trying to give Cody Bellinger a run for his money as part-time All-Star, part-time hot dog vendor?


Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

I'll make this one quick and painless.  The Yankees are 13-2 all-time against the Twins in the postseason.  But they've never faced a Minnesota team that can beat them at their own game.

The Yankees hit 306 home runs to shatter their major league home record, which was 267.  Except that the Twins hit 307 to erase the Yankees from the record book.

New York's starting pitchers don't miss bats, as evidenced by James Paxton's team-leading 186 strikeouts.  With Domingo German out for the postseason, no other Yankee on the postseason roster reached 150 Ks.  Pitching to contact against a team that makes powerful contact isn't a recipe for success for any team, no matter how many ringzzzzz they have.

By the time this series is over, the Yankees will have lost five postseason games to the Twins all-time.  Which will give them plenty of time to treat their necks for whiplash from watching all of Minnesota's home runs.

Prediction: Twins in 5.

Smile!  The Twins are finally going to (boom) stick it to the Yankees.  (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)


Monday, September 30, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

It's Miller Time!  But are the Nationals going to shut down the Brew Crew's party?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is your favorite fearless forecaster, Joey Beartran.  And I don't know how effective I'll be picking other teams to win, especially since I'm still on a high from the Mets' season-ending walk-off victory.

Finishing ten games over .500 wasn't good enough to get the Mets into the playoffs, as they finished three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card.  But at least they're not the 93-win Cleveland Indians, who became a fringe playoff team themselves when they allowed the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics to beat them to the postseason party.

Speaking of fringe teams, the Philadelphia Phillies paid $330 million to Bryce Harper, who led them to the promised land of a .500 record.  That's over $100 million more than the Washington Nationals are offering Anthony Rendon, otherwise known as the player who was the real offensive leader of the Nats all these years.  And the player who could possibly be one of just 25 who can say they helped Washington advance in the postseason for the first time ever.

But will Washington finally celebrate something other than a division title or wild card berth?  Will Milwaukee continue to win one for the Yelich?  How about the Rays, who are making their first playoff appearance with a skipper not named Joe Maddon?  Or will the A's move on for the first time in five trips to the postseason under manager Bob Melvin?

I guess it's time for me to put on my thinking cap (or the hood from my Mets hoodie, since that's the only article of clothing I wear) and share my predictions for the American and National League Wild Card games.  And of course, there's no chance those picks will be biased.  Not at all.


National League Wild Card Game

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

We all know the Nationals' history in the postseason.  Four appearances, four quick exits.  Meanwhile, every time the Brewers have qualified for the postseason since moving to the National League in 1998, they've won more playoff games than they did in their previous playoff appearance.  Milwaukee won one postseason game in 2008, then followed that up with five playoff victories in 2011.  Last year, the Brewers fell one win short of their second-ever trip to the World Series.

Both teams are hungry.  Milwaukee is hungry for a pennant, while Washington is hungry for their first-ever October champagne celebration (which is weird because how can a team be hungry for a liquid?)

Let's look at the pitching matchup, because as we all know, pitching wins Wild Card Game championships.

The Nationals will trot out Max Scherzer, whose seven-year, $210 million contract has produced zero postseason wins in three starts and one relief appearance.  Scherzer will also be pitching on six days rest, which usually helps a pitcher.  However, this season Scherzer made four starts on six or more days rest.  He won none of them, producing a 3.28 ERA in those well-rested appearances, which was nearly half a run higher than the 2.86 ERA he put up in his other 23 starts.

Milwaukee's starter will be Brandon Woodruff, who has a lifetime 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career postseason appearances.  Those numbers look good on paper.  You know what looks better on paper?  His 0.96 ERA and 0.70 lifetime WHIP against the Nationals in four appearances.  And I haven't even mentioned that he's struck out 23 Washingtonians while walking just two.  (Okay, maybe I just did.)

The face of a philosopher. (Getty Images)
And the pièce de résistance?  The next extra-base hit a Nationals player collects against Woodruff will be the first.  You read that right.  In his four appearances against Washington, Woodruff has faced 68 batters and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to any of them.

I believe it was the great former Mets shortstop Rafael Santana who once said, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."  (I also believe my Studious Metsimus colleague is passing me a note saying that it was actually George Santayana who said this.  What does he know about famous quotes?)  With or without Bryce Harper, the Nationals will always be doomed to repeat their postseason failures.  Scherzer might be a future Hall of Famer, but 'Ol Blue Eye is not a future wild card game winner.  At least not until he signs with another team.

Prediction:  Milwaukee will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics

So remember what I said about pitching winning championships?  Well, we're going to get some pitching in this game.  Unless things change, Oakland will be going with Sean Manaea, who made just five starts this season, but posted a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his September to remember.  Tampa will be going with All-Star Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 and struck out 240 batters in just 194.2 IP.  And if you recognize his name, it's probably because you recall how great he was for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the seventh and deciding game to give Houston its first-ever championship.  In other words, he's got what it takes to pitch in a win-or-go-home game.

Manaea was great in September, but his last four starts were against the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers (twice) and Seattle Mariners.  Those three teams combined to finish 99 games under .500, meaning Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz could probably shut them down as well.

In addition, Tampa's lineup is as consistent as they come.  Nine players had 300 or more plate appearances.  Eight of those players had between 14 and 21 home runs.  (The one who didn't, Austin Meadows, hit 33 taters.)  No one on the Rays had as many as 90 RBI, but eight players drove in over 50 runs.  No player hit .300, but eight of the nine regulars hit over .250, and the one who didn't (Kevin Kiermaier) led the team in stolen bases.  How consistent were the Rays throughout the season?  They had 11 players with a bWAR of at least 2.0, but none with a WAR above 5.0.  And who is the one player worth exactly 5.0 WAR?  Why, it's wild card game starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

The game is in Oakland, but Tampa had the second-best road record in the majors at 48-33.  This team knows how to win on the road.  And their starting pitcher knows how to pitch when the team's season is on the line.

Touch 'em all, Travis.  (Scott Audette/AP)
Oh, and one more thing.  Travis d'Arnaud is on the Rays and he just had that breakout campaign (16 HR, 67 RBI in 92 games with Tampa Bay) we were told he'd have one day as a member of the Mets.  But in addition to his skills with the bat, d'Arnaud also made Charlie Morton better, as evidenced by the opponents' .202/.265/.361 slash line against Morton with d'Arnaud behind the plate.

The Coliseum hasn't seen a playoff victory in six years.  That streak isn't ending this year.  Right, Travis?

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS.




Saturday, November 23, 2013

If Only The Mets Could Trade For Ben Zobrist...

The Mets are looking for a shortstop.  The names that constantly pop up as potential free agent acquisitions at the position are Jhonny Peralta and Stephen Drew.  But Peralta is asking for a minimum of four years and $52 million and is supposedly getting attention from teams willing to give him that type of deal.  Stephen Drew could be had for less money and years, but he has an injury history that has caused him to miss nearly 200 games since 2011.  His production at the plate has also gone down, as his slash line has been .245/.322/.403 during those three injury-plagued seasons.

So if the Mets can't acquire a free agent shortstop (which would not require them to lose their protected first round draft pick), they might have to look to make a trade.  And there's one player who would fit in very nicely at short if the Mets could find a way to engineer a trade with his current team.

What do you think of Ben Zobrist starting at shortstop for the New York Mets?

Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Ben Zobrist is the longest tenured player on the Tampa Bay Rays.  He is the only member of the Rays currently under contract who has been with the team when they were still known as the Devil Rays.  He is also 32 years old and is earning $7 million in 2014.  The Rays have a $7.5 million option for Zobrist in 2015.  And we all know that Tampa doesn't keep their players around once they enter free agency.  They failed to re-sign and/or were forced to trade players like Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, B.J. Upton and James Shields.  They're also considering trading David Price - the only pitcher to win a Cy Young Award in a Rays uniform.

At $7 million, Zobrist would cost the Mets far less than the amount they would have to lock up to ink Peralta or Drew to deals.  But they would have to part ways with a few prospects and/or a major league player.  I have a deal in mind that might get it done.  Tell me, Mets fans.  Would you trade Rafael Montero and Ike Davis for Ben Zobrist?

Montero is an excellent control pitcher, averaging nearly five strikeouts per walk in three minor league seasons.  With half a season of Triple-A experience, he should be in the starting rotation very early in the 2014 season.  But the Mets have a surplus of good, young starting pitchers.  They can certainly afford to trade one of those hurlers, especially with a rotation that will include Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and a veteran starter or two yet to be acquired.  At some point during the year, Noah Syndergaard will also be a part of the starting rotation.  That makes a pitcher like Montero expendable.  And we all know how Tampa Bay values quality arms.

Ike Davis clearly needs a change of scenery.  And Tampa has a hole at first base, as veteran James Loney is a free agent who will more than likely seek a multi-year deal and a big raise after hitting .299 with 33 doubles, 13 homers and 75 RBI for the Rays on a one-year, $2 million deal in 2013.  First base is normally a power position, something James Loney is not known for.  Ike Davis would certainly give the Rays a powerful bat at first base.  Of course, Davis hasn't been the same since the season-ending injury he suffered in May 2011.  But even with two poor first halves in 2012 and 2013, Davis has done fairly well after the All-Star Break in both seasons.  His second-half performances in 2012 (.255, 20 HR, 41 RBI in 66 starts) and 2013 (.290, 4 HR, 15 RBI in 32 starts) show that Davis can be a big power threat if he could ever combine those numbers over a full season.  Another plus is that Davis won't be 27 until a week before Opening Day, while Loney will be 30 in May.  Davis will also be under team control until 2017, and team control are two important words in Tampa's front office.

Sandy Alderson should not turn his back on my idea to trade for Ben Zobrist.

Ben Zobrist is 32 years old and will soon be pricing himself out of the Rays' future plans.  But he can play both middle infield positions and all three outfield positions.  He is also a switch-hitter who can be a great contributor at the plate.  Since 2009 - when he became an everyday player for the first time - Zobrist has produced three 30-double and three 20-HR campaigns.  He has also reached double digits in stolen bases every year, with a career high of 24 in 2010.  And of course, he draws a lot of walks, having surpassed 90 walks in a season three times since 2009.  Just eight players in Mets history have walked 90 or more times in a season.  Of those eight, only Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Carlos Beltran and David Wright had multiple 90-walk campaigns.  None of them did it three times, as Zobrist has done for the Rays.

Now let's look at the numbers for Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew and Ben Zobrist since 2009 and compare them to see which player has performed better at the plate for his respective team.

  • Peralta: 702 G, .267/.325/.414, 152 doubles, 71 HR, 368 RBI, 293 R, 5 SB, 535 K, 228 BB
  • Drew: 575 G, .257/.329/.424, 125 doubles, 52 HR, 266 RBI, 293 R, 26 SB, 469 K, 232 BB
  • Zobrist: 773 G, .269/.366/.446, 177 doubles, 89 HR, 402 RBI, 432 R, 85 SB, 533 K, 429 BB

It's not even close.  Of the three players, Zobrist has the highest batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  He also has the most doubles, homers, RBI and runs scored.  He has drawn almost as many walks as Peralta and Drew have combined and he has nearly three times the combined stolen base total posted by the other two.  Zobrist does have 64 more strikeouts than Drew, but it took him almost 200 more games to accomplish that whiff total.  And remember, Zobrist is only making $7 million in 2014, which is half of what Peralta will probably earn and surely less than the amount the injury-plagued Drew would command.  Oh, and did I mention that Zobrist plays five positions?  I did?  Well, it's worth repeating.

Finally, let's look at WAR, and show what it's good for in the case of Ben Zobrist.  Since 2009, Zobrist's 32.9 WAR is the third-highest in baseball.  The only players above him are Robinson Cano (34.2 WAR) and Miguel Cabrera (33.7 WAR).  Directly behind Zobrist are teammate Evan Longoria (31.5 WAR) and Joey Votto (30.5 WAR).  Cano, Cabrera, Zobrist, Longoria and Votto are the only players in baseball with a combined WAR of 30.0 or greater over the past five seasons, as Adrian Beltre has the sixth-highest WAR since 2009 at 29.4.  For the record, David Wright's 20.7 WAR since 2009 is the highest of any Mets position player.  The second-highest WAR on the Mets over the same time period is 10.3, which is what Angel Pagan produced despite not playing for the team after 2011.  Needless to say, the Mets haven't had many position players with high WARs since they moved to Citi Field.

If I were Sandy Alderson, I'd seriously consider doing more than just kicking the tires on this deal.  Tampa Bay has always prided itself on having lots of young talent in its starting rotation.  Rafael Montero would certainly qualify as a talented arm, something the Rays would need should they choose to trade David Price.  And Tampa could definitely use more power, as Evan Longoria was the only player on the team who hit more than 18 homers in 2013.  Ike Davis could provide a left-handed power bat to complement Longoria's right-handed pop.

Jhonny Peralta is pricing himself off the Mets' radar.  Stephen Drew is too much of an injury risk.  If only the Mets could trade for Ben Zobrist, they wouldn't have to worry about the almighty dollar or the training room.  Zobrist has been a great, versatile player for a number of years now.  He'd be wonderful as a Met.
 

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Joey's Soapbox: My 2013 Unbiased Division Series Picks


What's going on?  Have you been enjoying the baseball playoffs yet?  In case you don't know who I am, I'm Joey Beartran, your fav'rit Studious Metsimus prognosticator.  And if I'm not your fav'rit, I should be.  After all, who correctly predicted that Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay would win their respective wild card games, huh?  Me, that's who!

So let's not waste any more time on idle chitchat and dive right into my picks for the four division series.  Will I be right on all four?  Does a bear poop in the woods?  (Actually, I poop in the bathroom of a Citi Field luxury suite, as you can see here.)  Here are my unbiased division series picks!


National League Division Series


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

How great was it to see the Pirates win the wild card game in front of a packed house at PNC Park?  And how sweet was it to have former Met Marlon Byrd get the action started with a home run?  Word indeed!

Every few years, we see a team of destiny.  The 1969 season had the Miracle Mets.  Thirty-five years later, the Red Sox said goodbye to the Curse of the Bambino.  And who can forget the Rockies and Rays making unlikely runs to the World Series in back-to-back seasons just a few years ago?

This year, the Pirates appear to be that team, swashbuckling their way through the NL's best teams.  Despite hitting just .245 as a team, Pittsburgh showed great power (161 HR - 3rd in the league) and tremendous pitching.  Six pitchers made at least a dozen starts.  All of them had ERAs under 3.60.  Six relievers appeared in 50 or more games.  Only one of them had an ERA above 2.81, and it wasn't that much higher (Bryan Morris had a 3.46 ERA in 55 appearances).  Top that with a league-leading 55 saves from the bullpen and you have a team that can beat you in all kinds of ways.

Yes, St. Louis has far more playoff experience.  And yes, they also have home field advantage in the series.  But despite St. Louis going 46-30 against the NL Central, Pittsburgh won the season series, 10-9, giving the Cardinals one-third of their losses within the division.  The Pirates took one more game than St. Louis did in their head-to-head matchups during the regular season.  They'll do the same in the postseason.

Prediction:  Pirates in 5.


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

After winning 14 consecutive division titles in the '90s and '00s, the Atlanta Braves did not win another division crown until this year, eight years after their last one.  But the Braves won the NL East despite having two everyday players (Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton) fail to hit .200 for the season.  They also had very little speed on the team, as only two players (Upton, Jordan Schafer) stole more than eight bases.  And how about their hefty strikeout total, as five players struck out 116 or more times, contributing to their league-leading total of 1,384 whiffs.

Basically, a case can be made that Atlanta won the division because of their 13-2 start and their 14-game winning streak shortly after the All-Star Break.  They went 69-64 in all other games.  But they also won because they hit a lot of home runs (a league-leading 181 HR) and had an unreal bullpen (Craig Kimbrel, David Carpenter and Luis Avilan combined to go 13-4 with 50 saves, a 1.50 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP).

But the Dodgers have a few good pitchers of their own in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, who will add a few more strikeouts to the Braves' already-embarrassing totals.  And Los Angeles can also hit.  A lot.  Even without Matt Kemp and a fully healthy Andre Ethier, the Dodgers still have a multidimensional lineup with speed (Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig) and power (Ramirez, Puig, Adrian Gonzalez).

The Braves are too one-dimensional with their offense to expect to beat the Dodgers.  If they can't hit the ball out of the park, they can't score.  And if they can't score, their vaunted bullpen can't protect any leads.  Los Angeles should have no problem handling Atlanta.

Prediction:  Dodgers in 4.


American League Division Series


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Can both teams win this series?  Absolutely.  And I wish both teams could.  But since only one can, it will come down to which team has destiny on its side (see Pirates, Pittsburgh).

Boston had the best record in the American League.  They also defeated Tampa in 12 of their 19 regular season meetings.  But most of that came during the first half of the season, when Tampa was struggling to stay above .500 (Boston won nine of 12 meetings prior to the All-Star Break).

Tampa Bay is red hot right now.  Including the wild card tiebreaker game against Texas and the wild card game versus Cleveland, the Rays have won 15 of their last 20 games.  Meanwhile, Boston took it easy over the season's final three weeks, going 10-8 after September 7.

Take out Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74 ERA) and the rest of Boston's starting rotation is just slightly better than mediocre (48-37, 4.01 ERA).  And Buchholz is only slated to start one game of the ALDS, as manager John Farrell is going to use Jon Lester and John Lackey in the first two games.

Meanwhile, Tampa has three aces in their starting rotation in Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29 ERA), David Price (10-8, 3.33 ERA) and Alex Cobb (11-3, 2.76 ERA and a scoreless outing against the Cleveland Indians in the wild card game.  Pitching wins championships.  But before you win a championship, you have to win a division series, and Tampa Bay will ride their starting pitchers into the ALCS.

Prediction:  Rays in 4.


Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland A's

Last year, the Tigers won a hard-fought division series against the A's, going the distance before defeating Oakland in Game 5.  This year, they'll have to put up a bigger fight if they want to return to the ALCS and World Series.  But how much fight does a wounded team have?

Detroit's big bopper, Miguel Cabrera, has been battling aches and pains over the last month.  And Justin Verlander, although seemingly healthy, has not looked like himself this year, going 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA.  As a result of Cabrera's maladies and Verlander's inconsistencies, the Tigers went 16-16 over their final 32 games, barely holding off the Indians in the AL Central race.

Oakland, on the other hand, finished strongly, going 25-10 in their last 35 games.  The A's might not have the sexy names in their starting rotation, but a staff comprised of 18-game winner Bartolo Colon, 14-game winner A.J. Griffin and 12-game winners Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone can certainly get the job done.

The A's have power (seven players hit 12+ homers) and are willing to wait for their pitch, even if it means taking a walk (ten players walked 36 or more times).  They also have a great bullpen, as the four-headed monster of Grant Balfour, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Cook and Jerry Blevins combined to post 17 wins, 42 saves and a 2.85 ERA, while holding opposing batters to a .219 batting average.  That's something the Detroit Tigers just don't have.  It cost them last year and it will cost them this year.

Prediction:  A's in 5.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Joey's Soapbox: My 2013 Unbiased Wild Card Game Picks


Greetings and salutations, everyone!  I’m Joey Beartran and I’m ready to give you my unbiased picks for the upcoming wild card round of the baseball playoffs.  In the past, my picks have occasionally been biased because I would never pick the Yankees or the Phillies to advance to the next round.  But this October, the Yankees and Phillies are only fighting for who gets the first tee time on the golf course.

Do you know how long it’s been since the Yankees and Phillies both missed out on October baseball?  Well, this is only the second time since the Yankees started sending out invitations to their annual postseason party in 1995 that they forgot to invite themselves.  The only other time in that nearly two-decade period that they failed to make the playoffs was in 2008, when the Phillies won the World Series.  Now if you recall, because of the players’ strike, the World Series was canceled in 1994, but the year before the strike, the Phillies won the National League pennant.  They didn’t win the World Series in 1993 because Mitch Williams served up a fat pitch that made Joe Carter’s eyes get as big as Cole Hamels’ ego.

You have to go back to 1992 to find the last postseason that didn’t have the Yankees or Phillies in it to torment Mets fans, making them root for whoever was matched up against them.  And 1992 was also the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates received a playoff invite until this year.  Hmmm.  Maybe all we have to do is make sure the Pirates make it to the playoffs every year and then we won’t have to worry about seeing the only two teams whose players make Scott Atchison look like a young whippersnapper.

On that Geritol-sponsored note, let’s get to my picks for the National and American League wild card games, where we can talk some more about the Pittsburgh Pirates.


National League Wild Card Game


Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Last week at this time, this wild card game had a chance to be played at Great American Ballpark in the Queen City.  But then the Mets socked it to the Reds once again, just as they did in the 1973 NLCS and the 1999 wild card play-in game.  The Mets took two out of three from the Reds in Cincinnati, starting a season-ending five-game losing streak for Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the Shama-Lama-Ding-Dong crew.  That, combined with the Pirates’ three-game sweep of the Reds to close out the season, moved this do-or-die game to the Steel City.  Clearly, the hotter of the two teams is Pittsburgh.  However, as the old saying goes, you’re only as hot as that day’s starting pitcher, and Cincinnati’s starter is Johnny Cueto.

Because of injuries, Cueto only made 11 starts this year, but with a 5-2 mark and a 2.82 ERA, the Reds are confident he’s the man to lead them to the NLDS.  Pittsburgh, for all the success they’ve had this year, have rarely done well against Cueto over the years.  The Pirates have faced him 21 times and have only pinned four losses on him.  They’ve also had a difficult time scoring against the right-hander, as evidenced by Cueto’s 2.37 lifetime ERA against the Bucs.

Of course, Pittsburgh is sending their ace, Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02 ERA) to the mound, giving them their best chance to advance in the postseason for the first time since 1979.  But you don’t have to remind Liriano that three of his eight losses came at the hands of the Reds.  I’m sure he's already quite aware of that.

That being said, PNC Park will be rocking on Tuesday, hosting its first ever playoff game.  In a city known for the more successful Steelers and Penguins, the Pirates are finding their way back into the hearts of Pittsburgh sports fans.  And with two members of the Mets’ 2013 Opening Day roster now toiling for the Buccos (Marlon Byrd, John Buck), they have an extra rooter in myself.  The Pirates won’t let their success-starved fan base down.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game


Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians

Earlier today, I was listening to the radio and heard ESPN’s Mike Lupica mention that over the last six years, the Tampa Bay Rays have spent as much money on their entire roster as the Yankees spent on Alex Rodriguez.  Tampa has now made the playoffs four times in the last six years, while the Yankees have also made the playoffs four times in six years.   Clearly, the Rays are a team that knows how to get the most of their players.

Unlike Tampa, Cleveland was willing to spend money this past offseason, signing outfielders Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to free agent contracts.  Both Bourn and Swisher had typical seasons (which for Swisher means 20 or more homers, lots of walks, even more strikeouts and the ire of opposing fans who pray on a nightly basis that he’s stricken with a severe case of laryngitis).  But one of the big finds for the Indians was former Mets’ first round draft pick, Scott Kazmir.  The Mets saw firsthand how dominant Kazmir can be when he had a 12-strikeout, no-walk performance against New York on September 6.  But Kazmir won’t be starting the wild card game for Cleveland.  Neither will ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who won 13 games for the Tribe.  Rather, it will be rookie non-sensation Danny Salazar.  Salazar will facing Alex Cobb, who was brilliant for the Rays in 2013, going 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA.

Basically, this matchup is the equivalent of Al Leiter facing Steve Parris in 1999 for the right to advance to the National League Division Series.  And we all know who get the better of who in that game.

It doesn’t matter that Tampa has to travel to Cleveland to play this game.  They traveled to Texas on Monday to play one game against a team they historically couldn’t beat after Game No. 162.  That history is now … uh … history.  Tampa has the right pitcher on the hill for this game while Cleveland does not.  Fans of “Bro-hio” will be singing “Bro-hi-NOOOOO!!” after this game is over.

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS. 

Sunday, September 1, 2013

A Rock N' Roll Pitching Matchup In Cleveland

In 2004, general manager Jim Duquette thought the Mets were a playoff contender, as the team was just three games out of first place on July 22.  But one week later, the Mets were seven games off the pace and falling fast.  Not wanting to give up on the season, Duquette traded away the team's top pitching prospect, Scott Kazmir, to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for pitcher Victor Zambrano.

The Mets finished the year with a 71-91 record, a full 25 games behind the division-winning Atlanta Braves.  Kazmir went on to become a two-time All-Star (2006, 2008), strikeout champion (2005) and helped lead the Rays to an unexpected American League pennant in 2008.  Duquette was replaced by Omar Minaya by the end of the 2004 campaign.

Fast forward seven years later.  The San Francisco Giants were the defending World Series champions and had a 4½-game lead in the NL West on July 20.  A week later, the lead was down to three games.  At the time, Pablo Sandoval was the only player on the team with more than nine homers.  The Giants were also last in the league in runs scored.  They needed an offensive upgrade, and they needed it fast, especially with the high-scoring Arizona Diamondbacks closing ground.  They thought they had that upgrade when general manager Brian Sabean acquired Carlos Beltran from the Mets on July 27.  To complete the trade, Sabean sent the Giants' top pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, to New York.

Beltran performed well for the Giants, batting .323 with 20 extra-base hits in just 44 games, but his teammates did not.  San Francisco went 25-32 over the final two months of the season to finish eight games behind the Diamondbacks.

Both Jim Duquette and Brian Sabean parted ways with their best young hurlers, each of whom were former first-round draft picks, to acquire players they thought would help them in the short term.  Neither move worked.  But they did work for the teams who dealt for the minor leaguers.

Although Kazmir's wildness cost him a job in Tampa in 2009, he finally made it back to the majors this year with the Cleveland Indians.  Kazmir is 7-7 with his new team and is posting the lowest walk ratio (3.0 BB/9 IP) of his career.  He is also playing for a team that has remained in contention for a postseason berth all season.  Meanwhile, Wheeler is off to a fast start with the Mets, going 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA in his first 14 starts.  Wheeler has been particularly effective over his last five starts, striking out 31 batters and walking only six.  The Mets have won four of those five games.

On Friday night, the Mets will be traveling to Cleveland to take on the Indians in their final interleague series of the season.  Barring injury or bad weather, the pitching matchup for the series opener will be Scott Kazmir vs. Zack Wheeler.  Yeah.


Kazmir will be making his first start against the team that traded him before giving him a chance in the majors.  Wheeler will be taking his unblemished 5-0 road record (and 2.19 ERA) to Cleveland to face the Mets' former hotshot prospect.

Scott Kazmir was once traded away by the Mets to acquire a player who was supposed to help the team make a playoff run.  That move failed for the Mets.  Seven years later, the Mets fleeced the Giants by sending them a player who was supposed to help them defend their World Series title.  That moved failed for the Giants.

Friday night, both storylines will collide in Cleveland, when the phenom the Mets traded away in 2004 faces the phenom the Mets traded for in 2011.  Huey Lewis used to remind us in song form that "the heart of rock n' roll is in Cleveland".  Well, from what I see for Friday's pitching matchup, I believe him.

Scott Kazmir vs. Zack Wheeler.  It will truly be a rock n' roll pitching matchup Friday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

Monday, March 25, 2013

The Mets That Got Away: Ty Wigginton

Suppose you're an everyday player in the big leagues.  You're young.  You play hard.  You play multiple positions on the field.  Basically, you do whatever it takes to help your team win.  Then you get traded away because the team feels that a younger player would be even better for them than you are.  I think it's safe to assume that you'd be pretty miffed about that.  You'd also want to show your former team just how much you could have contributed to their success by doing well against them every time you faced them.

Stories like that occur every so often in the big leagues.  It happened to one particular player on the Mets in 2004.

This player was never viewed as a top prospect when the Mets drafted him in 1998, but he worked his way through the Mets' minor league system and forced his way into the starting lineup.  He played at five different defensive positions when he was first called up and showed the same determination to succeed on the field that he exhibited throughout his four-year rise through the minors.

But the Mets had a top prospect who was also climbing the ladder to the major leagues.  And once he got there, no one was going to stand in his way - not even a scrappy, versatile player who had proven that he belonged in the major leagues.  The writing was on the wall for Ty Wigginton, and he has repeatedly done his best to make the Mets pay for their decision to trade him.

Even as a 20-year-old, Ty Wigginton looked like he was going to run you over at the plate.

Ty Allen Wigginton was selected by the Mets in the 17th round of the 1998 June amateur draft.  Wigginton wasn't particularly impressive in his first professional season, batting .239 with eight homers and 29 RBIs in 70 games with the Pittsfield Mets.  But after getting the bugs out of his system, Wigginton blossomed.

With St. Lucie in 1999, Wigginton batted .292, leading the team in home runs (21) and RBIs (73).  Wigginton continued to excel in 2000, leading the Binghamton Mets to a division title.  The infielder finished first on his team in hits (129), doubles (27), home runs (20) and RBIs (77), while maintaining a solid .285 batting average.

Injuries provided a minor setback to Wigginton's advancement in 2001, as he managed only seven homers and 25 RBIs in 89 games.  But at Norfolk in 2002, Wigginton flew out of the gate, batting .374 through mid-May as a member of the Tides.  It was only a matter of time before the Mets would need his services at the big league level, and when infielder John Valentin was placed on the disabled list with a torn rotator cuff, the call for Wigginton finally came.

Although Wigginton only stayed in the majors for the two weeks Valentin was out, he got a chance to experience big league action for the first time.  Used mostly as a pinch-hitter and in double switches, Wigginton only got into six games during his initial time with the parent club, scoring one run and collecting one hit in four at-bats.  By the end of May, Wigginton was back in Norfolk, where he remained for the next two months.  Once he got back to the majors in early August, he never looked back.

As the summer progressed, it was becoming clear that the Mets were going nowhere in 2002.  Subpar performances by offseason acquisitions Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeño doomed the Mets by the beginning of August.  Injuries to second baseman Roberto Alomar (another failed addition to the team) and third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo created a gaping hole for the Mets in the infield.  To patch that hole, the Mets recalled Ty Wigginton from Norfolk and inserted their versatile neophyte into the starting lineup on August 4 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Wigginton's first major league start would become one of the best by a rookie in team history.

Wigginton went 4-for-5 in his first Shea Stadium start, providing a game-tying three-run homer in the third inning to erase a 5-2 deficit.  Wigginton also singled twice and hit a double in the 12-7 loss to Arizona.  It was the fourth loss in the Mets' franchise-record 15-game home losing streak.  The Mets failed to win a home game in August 2002, but they also failed to find a reason to take Wigginton out of the starting lineup.

After his auspicious debut as an everyday player, Wigginton continued to tear the cover off the ball.  He batted .500 (11-for-22) with four multi-hit games and five RBIs in his first five starts, then proceeded to have a tremendous month of September.  It was truly a September to remember for Wigginton, as the utility player batted .358 with six doubles, four homers, 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored in only 53 at-bats.  Wigginton accomplished this while playing five different positions, spending time at first base, second base, third base, left field and right field.

By season's end, Wigginton had left his mark on the team.  Although he had just 116 at-bats for the Mets in 2002 (thereby retaining his rookie status for 2003), Wigginton finished the year with a .302 batting average and .526 slugging percentage.  Forty percent of his hits went for extra bases, as Wigginton pounded eight doubles and six homers out of of his 35 total hits.  Wigginton also drove in 18 runs and crossed the plate 18 times, with some of those runs coming at the expense of the opposing catcher.

Wigginton was never shy about bowling over the catcher, doing so on numerous occasions with the Mets.  He got plenty of those opportunities in 2003, as the Mets gave him the starting third baseman's job after fan-favorite Edgardo Alfonzo signed a free agent contract with the San Francisco Giants.  Now guaranteed an everyday job from Day 1 of the new campaign, Wigginton went on to post one of the most unheralded rookie seasons in franchise history.

The Mets' new third baseman played in all but five of the team's 161 games in 2003 (one game was rained out and was not made up), setting numerous rookie records.  No Met rookie had ever played in as many games as Wigginton did in 2003.

In addition to his 156 games, Wigginton also set new club marks for rookies in at-bats (573), hits (146), extra-base hits (53) and doubles (36).  Wiggy scored 73 runs, which was one short of Cleon Jones' rookie record of 74, set in 1966.  His 71 RBIs fell three short of Darryl Strawberry's total of 74, which he accomplished during his Rookie of the Year campaign in 1983.  (Wigginton himself finished eighth in the 2003 National League Rookie of the Year vote, tied with teammate and fellow infielder Jose Reyes.)

But Wigginton wasn't just etching his name atop the Mets' all-time rookie leaders.  He was also becoming a top offensive threat over his non-rookie teammates, leading the 2003 Mets in every cumulative offensive category except home runs and stolen bases.  And he didn't do poorly in either of those categories, as Wigginton was only player on the '03 squad to reach double digits in home runs (11) and stolen bases (12). 

Prior to the 2004 season, the Mets signed Kazuo Matsui to a three-year deal, moving Jose Reyes to second base to accommodate the Japanese shortstop.  Wigginton remained at the hot corner for the Mets, but also started 22 games at second base, filling in at the position while Jose Reyes was on the disabled list.  But things were starting to get crowded for the Mets in the infield once Reyes returned.

Wigginton played all over the infield for the Mets in 2004, starting games at first base, second base and third base.  But veteran corner infielder Todd Zeile was being given an opportunity to start more games at third.  Manager Art Howe was also giving Zeile occasional starts at first base whenever Mike Piazza needed a day off or was catching.  Reyes was back in the starting lineup at second base and was not getting many days off.  And then, there was this kid named David Wright.

Wright was the Mets' top minor league prospect prior to the 2004 season.  The 21-year-old had dominated minor league pitching and was about to be called up to the major leagues.  There was only one problem.  Wright played third base.  So did Ty Wigginton.  Something had to give.  Something finally did.

Nine days after Wright made his major league debut for the Mets, Wigginton was sent packing.  General manager Jim Duquette, in a misguided effort to be a buyer at the July 31 trade deadline despite the team losing ground in the wild card race, jettisoned Wigginton, Jose Bautista and a minor leaguer to Pittsburgh for infielder Jeff Keppinger and former No. 1 overall draft pick Kris Benson.

Keppinger played in only 33 games with the Mets before being traded in 2006.  Since leaving New York, Keppinger has become one of the best contact hitters in baseball, batting .288 and striking out just 166 times in 2,343 at-bats.  Benson won 14 games as a Met and rarely showed the ability that made him the most coveted player in the 1996 June amateur draft.  (His wife, however, was coveted by more than just amateur baseball scouts.)

Meanwhile, Jose Bautista spent a few seasons bouncing around from team to team before finally finding a home in Toronto, where he became a three-time All-Star and two-time American League home run champion.

Ty Wigginton did his own share of bouncing around after leaving the Mets, but unlike Bautista, who waited many years before achieving success, Wigginton made positive contributions to his teams almost immediately.

Wigginton played in 115 games with the Pirates between 2004 and 2005, spending a few months in the minors in 2005.  Once he returned from his temporary minor league exile, Wigginton caught fire.  In 14 late-season starts, Wigginton batted .383 with seven extra-base hits and 13 RBIs.  Two months after his scalding finish, Wigginton was released by the Pirates.

The next stop for Wigginton was in Tampa, playing for the perennial cellar-dwelling Devil Rays.  Wigginton played everywhere for manager Joe Maddon, starting 37 games at first base, 37 games at second base and 32 games at third base.  Despite not having a steady position on the field, Wigginton was as steady as they came at the plate.  Wiggy got off to a tremendous start in 2006, batting .302 with eight homers and 20 RBIs in his first 16 games.  After another wonderful month in July (.317, 5 HR, 11 RBI, .650 slugging percentage in 60 at-bats), Wigginton missed the entire month of August with an injury but returned to hit .300 with six homers and 22 RBIs in the season's final month.

Wigginton had his finest season in the majors in 2006, setting career highs with 24 homers and 79 RBIs.  He continued to thrive in Tampa, collecting 21 doubles, 16 homers and 49 RBIs through the first four months of the 2007 season.  The Devil Rays then traded Wigginton to the Houston Astros on July 28, dealing him for his former Met teammate, Dan Wheeler.  Wigginton continued his strong season in Houston, batting .284 with 18 extra-base hits in 50 games.

In 2008, Wigginton began his first full season in Houston and quickly became a fan-favorite.  He also was finally playing for a winning team.  After six consecutive years playing for sub-.500 teams in New York, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, Wigginton got his first taste of a pennant race in Houston, although it didn't look like the Astros were going to be playing meaningful games in September for most of the season.

As July turned to August, Houston's record stood at 50-57, leaving them 11½ games behind the wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers.  But over the final two months of the season, Houston posted the best record in baseball, winning 36 of their last 54 games.  The main reason for their resurgence was the record-breaking performance of Ty Wigginton.

Wigginton tied Jeff Bagwell's team record by blasting 12 home runs in August.  The Astros' third baseman also hit .379 during the month and drove in 26 runs.  By September 11, Houston had moved to within three games of Milwaukee for the wild card lead.  But Ty Wigginton had injured himself running out a ground ball five days earlier and did not play again until September 17.  By the time he returned to the lineup, Houston was in the middle of a costly five-game losing streak that effectively put an end to their playoff dreams.  That wasn't the only thing that ended in the fall of 2008.

In a move that was quite unpopular with Astros fans, Wigginton was not tendered a contract for the 2009 season.  General manager Ed Wade cited financial reasons for the split, but Wigginton was still taken aback by Houston's decision not to offer him a contract.


“I was thinking all along there was no way I would be non-tendered, to be honest with you.  It’s one of those things.  The last three years I’ve been as consistent as anybody out there, and I’ve hit 70 home runs or something like that in the last three years.  I’ve been consistent average-wise, and my on-base percentage keeps getting higher.”


Wigginton was right.  His numbers across the board were getting better and he was one of the most consistent players in the majors.  The Baltimore Orioles were looking for a player like Wigginton, hoping his consistently good play would help the O's end their streak of 11 consecutive losing seasons.  Baltimore signed Wigginton to a two-year, $6 million deal in 2009, using him at third base (a position already held by another former Met, Melvin Mora), first base and designated hitter.  But for the first time since 2005, Wigginton did not have a good season.

After averaging 27 doubles and 23 homers per season with Tampa Bay and Houston, Wigginton managed only 19 doubles and 11 homers with Baltimore in 2009.  Wigginton also scored 44 runs and collected 41 RBIs despite playing in 122 games.  Had the 32-year-old Wigginton not signed a two-year deal prior to the season, he might have had a tough time finding a new team in 2010.  But given a second chance in year two of the deal, Wigginton proved that his 2009 season was a fluke.

In 2010, Wigginton became an All-Star for the first time, leading the Orioles with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs by the Fourth of July.  Wigginton played in 154 games in his second year with Baltimore - his highest total since his first full season with the Mets in 2003.  By season's end, Wigginton was back to being his old consistent self, finishing the year with 29 doubles, 22 homers and 76 RBIs.  One other consistency returned to Wiggy's career - he became a free agent and signed with another team.

Colorado became Wigginton's sixth team in 2011, as the 33-year-old Wigginton once again replaced Melvin Mora as the team's versatile infielder.  Although Wigginton only had 401 at-bats with the Rockies, he still managed 21 doubles, 15 homers and 47 RBIs.

But once again, Wigginton was piling up his numbers with a non-contending team.  He thought that would finally change when he signed a one-year deal to play for the five-time NL East champion Phillies in 2012.  It did not, as the Phillies finished with the year with an 81-81 record.  But Wigginton did get to show the Mets what they had been missing over the years, batting .412 with four doubles, three homers and an incredible 15 RBIs in only 34 at-bats versus New York.


Video courtesy of MLB.com

Ty Wigginton has played 11 years in the major leagues, but has only been involved in one pennant race.  But the final chapter in Wigginton's book has not yet been written, as the veteran utility man signed a two-year, $5 million contract to play for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013 and 2014.   The Redbirds have had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years and have made the playoffs nine times in that stretch, winnings three pennants and two World Series titles.

After years of playing games in September to earn a job the following season, Wigginton might finally be playing for a postseason berth instead.  A player who has fought so hard to achieve everything he has accomplished since receiving that first call-up to the major leagues in 2002 deserves that chance.

Ty Wigginton was never supposed to make it to the big leagues, let alone succeed in the majors for over a decade.  Most 17th round picks don't.  But the gritty, hard-nosed player did make it to the big show, doing it through sheer determination and a strong will to win (even if his teams had trouble doing so).  Although Wigginton only played parts of three seasons in New York, he still played more games with the Mets (288) than he has with any other team.  Yet despite that, Wigginton has still hit 176 doubles and 140 homers (and counting) after the Mets let him get away.

Two years before Jim Duquette traded Wigginton to Pittsburgh, he had this to say about the infielder:


''When we got him, he wasn't where he needed to be, defensively, at the professional level.  But through his work ethic alone, he's turned himself into a solid second baseman.  He hasn't been exposed as much at third, but we're going to look at him.''



Duquette thought the Mets had a solid second baseman in Wigginton, but manager Art Howe played him at third in 2003.  Wigginton remained at third base in 2004 because Jose Reyes was the team's second baseman.  For the record, Wigginton has played a total of 168 games at second base in his career, making 14 errors at the position.  But the Mets never thought to play him there.  Meanwhile, the team used Kaz Matsui at the position from 2004 to 2006 and Luis Castillo from 2007 to 2010.  That's seven seasons of boos at the second base position.  And seven seasons of wondering what might have been had the Mets just given the position to Wigginton.

Ty Wigginton has made a career out of being a consistent performer.  But the Mets delivered a knockout blow to his career in New York when they sent him to Pittsburgh in 2004.  Wigginton has been doing his best to knock out Mets pitchers and their battery mates since then, batting .313 with 14 extra-base hits and 27 RBIs in only 96 career at-bats against the team that originally drafted him in 1998.  Of course, former Mets catcher Josh Thole wouldn't know a thing about that.  He's still recovering from his close encounter of the Wigginton kind.

Ouch.


Note:  The Mets That Got Away is a thirteen-part weekly series that spotlights those Mets players who established themselves as major leaguers in New York, only to become stars after leaving town.  For previous installments, please click on the players' names below:

January 7, 2013: Nolan Ryan
January 14, 2013: Melvin Mora  
January 21, 2013: Kevin Mitchell 
January 28, 2013: Amos Otis
February 4, 2013: Jeff Reardon
February 11, 2013: Lenny Dykstra
February 18, 2013: Jeff Kent
February 25, 2013: Randy Myers
March 4, 2013: Ken Singleton 
March 11, 2013: Mike Scott
March 18, 2013: Jeromy Burnitz


Thursday, November 29, 2012

B.J. Upton's Offensive Numbers Remind Me Of...

B.J. Upton's bubble will never burst after signing a lucrative deal with the Braves.

The Atlanta Braves made quite a splash on Wednesday, signing former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million.  The 28-year-old is coming off a year in which he missed a 30/30 campaign by two homers (28 HR, 31 SB), but only hit .246 and reached base at a paltry .298 clip.

Upton is now the highest-paid Brave on a team that features veteran players like Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and Tim Hudson.  But let's look at his numbers since his breakout year in 2007, a year in which he hit .300 with 24 HR and 82 RBI.

In 2008, Upton only hit nine homers, but stole a career-high 44 bases.  He followed that up with a Beltran-like post-season, hitting seven homers and stealing six bases in 16 games for the American League champion Rays.  He also averaged exactly one run scored and one RBI per playoff game (16 runs, 16 RBI).  But over his next four seasons (2009-12), an average Upton season has consisted of a .242 batting average, .316 on-base percentage, 82 runs scored, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 stolen bases and 162 strikeouts.

Let's put those numbers together with the five and six-year averages of three other players who will remain nameless at the moment.

  • Upton ('09-'12): .242 BA, .316 OBP, 82 runs, 69 RBI, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 38 SB, 162 K
  • Player #1 ('90-'95): .273 BA, .348 OBP, 95 runs, 95 RBI, 27 doubles, 29 HR, 30 SB, 103 K
  • Player #2 ('99-'04): .252 BA, .347 OBP, 87 runs, 81 RBI, 30 doubles, 23 HR, 28 SB, 148 K
  • Player #3 ('87-'91): .258 BA, .347 OBP, 96 runs, 95 RBI, 31 doubles, 31 HR, 32 SB, 113 K

Upton leads all three anonymous players in stolen bases and doubles, but not by much.  However, he has a lower batting average, lower on-base percentage, has scored fewer runs, driven in fewer runs, hit fewer homers and has struck out more than all three players.  In some cases, he trails the other players by quite a bit.

If Upton will be averaging a little over $15 million per season for the duration of his five-year contract with the Braves, then how much would Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson make in this era?  (And yes, those are the identities of the formerly unnamed players listed above.)

HoJo can't believe the amount of money B.J. Upton will be making with Atlanta.

Here are four more things you may not have known about Upton.  He's never been an All-Star, he's never won a Gold Glove, he's never earned a Silver Slugger Award and he's never received an MVP vote.  Meanwhile, Gant, Cameron and Johnson combined to make five All-Star teams, win three Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger Awards, while earning MVP votes in nine separate seasons.

Despite their impressive statistics and postseason accolades, neither player was considered the best player on his team nor was any of them the highest paid.  But Upton - who has a bunch of zeroes next to his All-Star selections, Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger Awards and MVP votes - can now brag about some more zeroes, namely the ones on his contract that make him the highest paid member of the Atlanta Braves.

Maybe B.J. Upton will play well in Atlanta.  But is he truly deserving of the $75-plus million he'll be receiving until he's 33, especially for a player who's never been the best at anything he does, and in various offensive categories, is well below average?

Ron Gant, Mike Cameron and Howard Johnson are probably shaking their heads right now knowing how much they could have earned had they been in their prime in 2012.  B.J. Upton is just shaking his checkbook.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

No One Can Have Just One (No-Hitter)


R.A. Dickey had the most amazing, most tremendous, most [insert your favorite superlative here] start of his career last night, coming within two David Wright muffs of pitching the first perfect game in Mets history.  His performance came less than two weeks after Johan Santana tossed the first no-hitter in club annals and on the same night that Matt Cain pitched the first perfect game in San Francisco Giants history.

Before Wright's error allowed Elliot Johnson to reach base safely in the ninth inning (which led to the only run scored off Dickey in the game, ending his franchise-record 32⅔ inning scoreless streak), the only base runner allowed by the Mets' knuckler was a first-inning infield hit off the bat of B.J. Upton.  Upton hit a slow roller near the third base line that Wright tried to field with his bare hand.  The ball tickled Wright's fingers before dropping to the artificial turf, allowing Upton to reach base on what was credited as a base hit.  It became the only hit allowed by Dickey in the game and gave him credit for pitching the 36th one-hitter in franchise history.

But stop the presses!  There's a new story to report!

Apparently, Terry Collins thinks that there's a chance an appeal could reverse the call on Upton's infield single to an error by Wright, allowing Dickey to be credited with the team's second no-hitter of the month.  Collins goes on to say,





"We said in the ninth inning that we've got to appeal that play.  We're probably not going to win it, but ... what the heck?  What do you got to lose except to have somebody say no?  You've just got to give him his due.  He deserves it." 




It's great that Collins is sticking up for his pitcher.  But in all honesty, the Mets should have just settled for a one-hitter without trying to get an after-the-fact no-hitter for Dickey.  Besides, earlier this month, when Santana pitched his no-hitter, a call by third base umpire Adrian Johnson took a base hit away from Carlos Beltran.  So this pretty much evens it out.  Santana got a no-hitter in a game that should have been a one-hitter and Dickey gets a one-hitter in a game that could have been a no-hitter.

Notice how I said that Santana "should" have had a one-hitter while I said Dickey "could" have had a no-hitter.  It was an umpire's error that allowed Santana to keep his no-hitter intact.  But it was David Wright's non-error in the first inning that rightfully gave the Rays their first and only hit of the night.  And it should remain an error after the appeal is reviewed.

I understand Terry Collins wanting to reward his pitcher for a tremendous pitching performance, a performance that might have been more dominant (career-high 12 Ks, no walks) than Santana's, as Johan allowed five Cardinals to reach base via the base on balls.  But trying to get him a no-hitter after the fact is taking it a little too far.  It's not going to happen and it should never have come to this.

Collins should see it for what it is and what will remain in the record books.  Dickey pitched a one-hitter, retired 22 batters in a row from the first to the ninth innings, struck out a career-high 12 batters and set the Mets' all-time record for consecutive scoreless innings, supplanting Jerry Koosman in the team's record book by one inning.  It was a fantastic pitching performance by R.A. Dickey.  It was not a no-hitter.

The Mets already got a no-hitter that shouldn't have been.  They shouldn't get greedy and try for a second.  I guess it's true that no one can have just one.