Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts

Monday, October 21, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased World Series Pick


I'm either looking at the yummy food in Houston or I'm following the flight of Jose Altuve's home run.


How is everyone doing?  I'm Joey Beartran and like Tony the Tiger, I'm feeling GRRRRRRRREAT!!  And I have Jose Altuve to thank for me being so upbeat.

I had always been a fan of Altuve, mainly because he's the only major leaguer who's my height.  But now, after hitting a walk-off, pennant-winning homer against the Yankees, I love him even more.  His blast allowed me to go 2-for-2 in my League Championship Series predictions, and that's the only reason why I'm this excited today.  Not because the Yankees lose, thaaaaaaaaaa Yankees loooooose.  That would be biased of me, and I'm not at all biased.

Thanks to Altuve's heroics, we now have a World Series that will be anything but boring, with intriguing pitching matchups in practically every game.  The Fall Classic will also feature teams that had combined to win just two pennants prior to this year, which hadn't happened since 1980, when the Philadelphia Phillies (who had previously won pennants in 1915 and 1950) faced the Kansas City Royals (who had never won a pennant).

Will the Washington Nationals win their first championship?  Will the Houston Astros tie the Mets for most titles for teams that played their first game in 1962?  Will the Yankees ever learn how to count past twenty-seven?  The answers to the first two questions will be revealed below.  The answer to third question is no, they will not.


The people who made this shirt should be happy they never have to update it.


World Series

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

For the opening act, we have Max Scherzer vs. Gerrit Cole.  Then we have Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander in Game Two.  And if that's not enough to whet your pitching appetite, it's Patrick Corbin vs. Zack Greinke in Game Three.  How's that for must-see TV?

The Astros batted just .179 against the Yankees in the ALCS, which doesn't bode well for them against the vaunted Nationals staff.  That Nats staff didn't throw a single pitch in the NLCS with the team trailing, as Washington led throughout their four-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.  That might change in the World Series if Houston continues to jump on top early.  Of the 22 runs scored by the Astros in the ALCS, ten of them crossed the plate in the first three innings.

Washington is a very streaky team.  During their current six-game winning streak, they've outscored the opposition, 33-10.  They also scored 166 runs during a 21-game stretch in late August and early September.  But the Nats can also go cold at the plate, as evidenced by the 61 times this year (58 regular season and three postseason games) they failed to score more than three runs in a game.  By comparison, the Mets scored three runs or fewer in 54 games this season.

If the Nationals could be held in check that many times this year when they didn't face past, present and future Cy Young Award winners every game, imagine what they'll look like against Cole, Verlander and Greinke.

Then there's the case of the bullpens.  Washington's bullpen is such a mess that manager Dave Martinez went with his starters in relief on various occasions to navigate through the playoffs.  Meanwhile, Houston's bullpen was one of the team's many strengths, posting a 3.75 ERA during the regular season.  That's nearly two full runs lower than the Washington's 5.68 ERA for its relievers.  If a game comes down to Altuve and his brothers facing the Nats' relief corps, I'll put my lunch money on Mini-Me and the 'Stros.

I think it's clear who I'm picking to win the World Series.  But if it still isn't obvious to you, please think about this.

The Washington Nationals play their home opener next year on April 2.  Their opponent that day will be the New York Mets.  Do you really want to see them rub their World Series rings in our faces?  I think not.  Let them raise their National League pennant against us in 2020.  For this season, it'll be the Astros who will #TakeItBack.

Prediction: Astros in 6.

Little man on paper.  Big man on campus.  (Photo by F. Carter Smith)

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased LCS Picks


Please read my picks while I make a pit stop at Walgreens.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)


What's good, kids?  This is Joey Beartran and we've reached baseball's final four.  And unfortunately, this year's pair of League Championship Series feature quite a few teams that I did not predict to advance this far.  In fact, the only team that did make it to the LCS as I foretold was the Houston Astros.

Batting .250 in the division series round means that I have some work to do to improve as a fearless forecaster.  But at least I can make myself feel better by saying I had a better chance of picking a winner in the last round than Hall of Famer and franchise legend Gary Carter had of collecting a base hit as a member of the New York Mets.  (He hit .249 while wearing the racing stripes and shooting Ivory Soap commercials.)

This year's National and American League Championship Series feature intriguing matchups.  In the Senior Circuit, we have the Washington Nationals, who are making their first NLCS appearance since moving to our nation's capital from Montreal and just the second final four appearance in the 51-year history of the Expos/Nationals franchise.  Their opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, have appeared in 14 League Championship Series since the Expos/Nats last played in one.  The Redbirds are also making their 11th NLCS appearance in the last 24 seasons.

Moving over to the A.L., we have the New York Yankees, who are playing in their 1,000th League Championship Series in club history, according to what their fans say.  They'll be taking on the Houston Astros, a team which is appearing in its third consecutive ALCS.  This is also a rematch of the 2017 battle for the American League pennant, a series won by Houston in seven games.

Will the Cardinals win their 20th National League pennant or will the Nationals win their first?   Can Houston make its third World Series appearance of the 21st century and second in three seasons?  And how many times will Yankee fans remind us of their ringzzzzz?

You can either watch these four-plus hour contests that feature starters pitching in relief and 20,000 or so home runs (by coincidence, that's the same number of division titles the Yankees have, which must be true because I was assured of that fact by a long-time Yankee fan who said he knows everything about the team since he became a fan in 1996) or you can just read my predictions below while pondering just how many words I can fit in one sentence.  (Run-on sentence much?)

I'd take the "read my predictions" option if I were you.


National League Championship Series

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Although the Cardinals have home field advantage because they were a division champion, the Nationals actually finished with the better record (93-69, while the Cards were 91-71).  However, it was St. Louis that won the season series in this matchup, taking five of seven against Washington.

Nationals ace Max Scherzer was defeated twice by the Cardinals by identical 5-1 scores, while Washington's bats hit the snooze button in their regular season meetings with St. Louis, scoring just 17 runs in the seven games.

But that was a different Nationals team.  This group of Nats come back from two-run, eighth-inning deficits in wild card games instead of choking postseason advancement away as per the usual Washington script.  This group of Nationals erase two-games-to-one deficits in a best-of-five series and take future Hall of Fame pitchers deep on back-to-back pitches in the late innings of do-or-die games.  For everything this group of Washingtonians does now, there's one thing the team no longer does.

They don't pay Bryce Harper's salary.

These Nats don't choke.  (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Harper's .211 lifetime postseason batting average in a Nationals uniform is long gone, as he is now helping the Philadelphia Phillies underachieve.  But you know who is in Washington?  Anthony Rendon and his .412 batting average and 1.219 OPS in the just-completed series against the Dodgers.  So is Juan Soto and his 1.020 OPS in the same series.

Basically, all the Nationals had to do was cut ties with the hair-flipping Papelbonian punching bag and they were destined to win a playoff series and perhaps two.

The Nationals won't win this series because the pitching firm of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin will keep the Cardinals' already low .245 batting average in check.  They also won't win because their relievers won't get the chance to blow leads if they're hardly ever used.  Nope.  All they need is the knowledge that Bryce Harper is busy playing golf and getting another one of his managers fired (the 2020 season will see Harper playing under his sixth different skipper in nine seasons) and that'll be enough to advance to the franchise's first World Series.

Prediction: Nationals in 7.


American League Championship Series

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

The Yankees can only win when they outslug you.  It's true.  When they scored five runs or fewer, their record was 31-53.  We're not talking about being 22 games under .500 when they score no more than two runs.  We're talking FIVE RUNS OR FEWER.  And even when they scored half a dozen runs or more, they still managed to lose six times.

Considering that New York will now be facing a dominant Houston pitching staff that held its opponents to four runs or fewer in 112 games (for all you kids out there, that's more than two-thirds of the games they played), it's going to be very difficult for the Yankees to keep up with the Astros.

Oh, and since we're on the topic of pitching, allow me to remind you that the Yankees allowed five runs or more in nearly half of their games (72 out of 162) and will now be facing an Astros lineup that averaged 5.7 runs per contest.

The Yankees have a great past.  But it's the Astros who have a great present and future.  And looking a week into the future, I see the Astros playing in the World Series.

Predictions: Astros in 6.


If S.I. says it, then it has to be true.  (courtesy Sports Illustrated)


Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Division Series Picks

Minnesota hit the target (the outfield seats) a major-league record 307 times.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

Hey, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, and it's time to share my picks for the American and National League Division Series.  As usual, none of these picks will be biased because I'd lose all my credibility if they were.  You know, kinda like when the Wilpons lose their credibility as big-market owners every year during free agent signing season.

All my picks will be based as endless data that I've pored over for days.  I've considered pitching matchups, weather factors, if a stadium favors one team over another, and who's playing that team from the Bronx.  All of that information has led me to pick four winners who will compete in the League Championship Series.

Who will advance?  Will Minnesota do what no Twins team has done before in October against the Yankees?  Will the Nationals finally win a playoff series?  (Don't you dare say they just did.  They won the Wild Card Game, not the Wild Card Series.)  Will Houston have a problem against Tampa Bay?  And will I watch any games in the series featuring the last two teams to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS (Braves in 1999, Cardinals in 2006)?

The time has come for me to share my Division Series picks.


National League Division Series

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

I'm only picking the winner of this series because I have to, not because I want to.  Both teams have been a thorn in the Mets' side over the years, so I'm not particularly thrilled that one of them is going to play for the right to represent the National League in the World Series.  But I'm a professional, so I'll actually pick a team to win for a reason other than a meteor striking the other team's dugout, frying every player on the roster to a crisp and causing a forfeit.

The Cardinals made the playoffs as a division champion despite having the tenth-best record in the majors.  Their team batting average was only .245 and they had the fourth-fewest homers in the National League.  Their starting rotation is Jack Flaherty and the Mediocre Men.  If you want to argue that Dakota Hudson had a 16-7 record, I'll respond by pointing at his 1.41 WHIP.  Bring up Adam Wainwright and his Death-To-Beltran curveball and I'll show you his 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .782 OPS against him.  Plus, Yadier Molina is playing in his 20th postseason series.  I've had enough of seeing him in October.

Meanwhile, Atlanta earned their trip to the playoff party, winning 97 games and graciously allowing the Mets to sweep them at the end of the season so that New York could finish ten games above .500.  Now that's southern hospitality right there.

Up, up and away. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) 
The Braves have Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr, Ozzie Albies and Josh Donaldson leading the offense, while the rotation of Mike Soroka, Dallas Keuchel, Max Fried and Julio Teheran is among the best in the league.  But those players aren't why I'm leaning towards picking Atlanta.

#VoteMarkakis.  It was cool in 2013.  It's still cool now.  And Nick Markakis - who's advanced to the League Championship Series just once in his 14-year career - is going to make the Cardinals buckle before him.  You know, kinda like what Adam Wainwright did to that future Hall of Famer in 2006.

I'm voting Braves in this series.

Prediction: Braves in 4.


Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Let me begin by bringing up something I mentioned before.  The Nationals have never won a postseason series.  Ever.  They won the Wild Card GAME, not the Wild Card SERIES.  Plus, Wikipedia told me they haven't won a playoff series, and as we all know, if Wikipedia says so, then it must be true.

That being said, the Dodgers have too many weapons for Washington to handle.

Whatever.  (David Crane/LA Daily News)
Cody Bellinger led the Dodgers in hits, walks, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and probably put on a vendor uniform and sold some Dodger Dogs between innings when no one was looking.  He's that talented.  And even when Bellinger had a rare bad night (like going 1-for-4 with a walk), his teammates were there to pick him up.  Joc Pederson and Max Muncy combined for 71 homers.  Corey Seager ripped 44 doubles and drove in 87 runs despite missing 28 games.  And Justin Turner was magically delicious as always, batting .290 and tying a career high with 27 homers.

The Nationals may have the three-headed pitching monster of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, but it was the Dodgers who led the league in ERA and WHIP.  Los Angeles also allowed just 185 home runs, which was the fewest given up by any National League staff.

If that's not enough for you to figure out who I'm picking in this series, consider this.  In using Scherzer for five innings in the Wild Card Game (still not a series) and Strasburg for three frames, neither pitcher will be available to pitch in the first two games of the Division Series, with Scherzer due to start Game Three and Strasburg toiling in Game Four.

In 2012, the Nationals famously shut down Strasburg before he got a chance to pitch in the Division Series.  He's not pitching in this series either, but this time it'll be because the Dodgers are shutting down Strasburg's team.

Prediction: Dodgers in 3.


American League Division Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

The Rays are a great story.  On a budget that would make the Wilpons proud, they've managed to lead the American League in ERA and allowed the fewest long balls in the majors in a year when baseball went homer happy.  They've continued to use an "opener" instead of a starting pitcher to great success, which allowed Tampa to limit its starters' innings to keep their arms fresh.  (Only Charlie Morton worked more than 150 innings this season.)

On the offensive side, the Rays got an incredible year from Austin Meadows, who launched 33 homers in 138 games after hitting just six in 59 games prior to the 2019 campaign.  They also got Travis d'Arnaud to come out of his shell, as he finally reached his potential with the bat just months after he played his final game with the Mets.

As I said, the Rays have been a fantastic story in 2019.  But dude, they're playing the Houston Astros.  And no one is beating a team that has Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke putting up zeroes and Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel blasting balls all over the field.  Oh, and let's not forget shortstop Carlos Correa, who's been injured for most of the season, but still managed to hit 21 homers and put up a .926 OPS in 75 games.  Correa is expected to be ready for Game One of the Division Series.

It was fun while it lasted, Tampa.  But the Astros are a team of destiny.

Prediction: Astros in 4.

Is Jose Altuve trying to give Cody Bellinger a run for his money as part-time All-Star, part-time hot dog vendor?


Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

I'll make this one quick and painless.  The Yankees are 13-2 all-time against the Twins in the postseason.  But they've never faced a Minnesota team that can beat them at their own game.

The Yankees hit 306 home runs to shatter their major league home record, which was 267.  Except that the Twins hit 307 to erase the Yankees from the record book.

New York's starting pitchers don't miss bats, as evidenced by James Paxton's team-leading 186 strikeouts.  With Domingo German out for the postseason, no other Yankee on the postseason roster reached 150 Ks.  Pitching to contact against a team that makes powerful contact isn't a recipe for success for any team, no matter how many ringzzzzz they have.

By the time this series is over, the Yankees will have lost five postseason games to the Twins all-time.  Which will give them plenty of time to treat their necks for whiplash from watching all of Minnesota's home runs.

Prediction: Twins in 5.

Smile!  The Twins are finally going to (boom) stick it to the Yankees.  (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)


Monday, September 30, 2019

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

It's Miller Time!  But are the Nationals going to shut down the Brew Crew's party?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is your favorite fearless forecaster, Joey Beartran.  And I don't know how effective I'll be picking other teams to win, especially since I'm still on a high from the Mets' season-ending walk-off victory.

Finishing ten games over .500 wasn't good enough to get the Mets into the playoffs, as they finished three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card.  But at least they're not the 93-win Cleveland Indians, who became a fringe playoff team themselves when they allowed the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics to beat them to the postseason party.

Speaking of fringe teams, the Philadelphia Phillies paid $330 million to Bryce Harper, who led them to the promised land of a .500 record.  That's over $100 million more than the Washington Nationals are offering Anthony Rendon, otherwise known as the player who was the real offensive leader of the Nats all these years.  And the player who could possibly be one of just 25 who can say they helped Washington advance in the postseason for the first time ever.

But will Washington finally celebrate something other than a division title or wild card berth?  Will Milwaukee continue to win one for the Yelich?  How about the Rays, who are making their first playoff appearance with a skipper not named Joe Maddon?  Or will the A's move on for the first time in five trips to the postseason under manager Bob Melvin?

I guess it's time for me to put on my thinking cap (or the hood from my Mets hoodie, since that's the only article of clothing I wear) and share my predictions for the American and National League Wild Card games.  And of course, there's no chance those picks will be biased.  Not at all.


National League Wild Card Game

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

We all know the Nationals' history in the postseason.  Four appearances, four quick exits.  Meanwhile, every time the Brewers have qualified for the postseason since moving to the National League in 1998, they've won more playoff games than they did in their previous playoff appearance.  Milwaukee won one postseason game in 2008, then followed that up with five playoff victories in 2011.  Last year, the Brewers fell one win short of their second-ever trip to the World Series.

Both teams are hungry.  Milwaukee is hungry for a pennant, while Washington is hungry for their first-ever October champagne celebration (which is weird because how can a team be hungry for a liquid?)

Let's look at the pitching matchup, because as we all know, pitching wins Wild Card Game championships.

The Nationals will trot out Max Scherzer, whose seven-year, $210 million contract has produced zero postseason wins in three starts and one relief appearance.  Scherzer will also be pitching on six days rest, which usually helps a pitcher.  However, this season Scherzer made four starts on six or more days rest.  He won none of them, producing a 3.28 ERA in those well-rested appearances, which was nearly half a run higher than the 2.86 ERA he put up in his other 23 starts.

Milwaukee's starter will be Brandon Woodruff, who has a lifetime 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career postseason appearances.  Those numbers look good on paper.  You know what looks better on paper?  His 0.96 ERA and 0.70 lifetime WHIP against the Nationals in four appearances.  And I haven't even mentioned that he's struck out 23 Washingtonians while walking just two.  (Okay, maybe I just did.)

The face of a philosopher. (Getty Images)
And the pièce de résistance?  The next extra-base hit a Nationals player collects against Woodruff will be the first.  You read that right.  In his four appearances against Washington, Woodruff has faced 68 batters and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to any of them.

I believe it was the great former Mets shortstop Rafael Santana who once said, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."  (I also believe my Studious Metsimus colleague is passing me a note saying that it was actually George Santayana who said this.  What does he know about famous quotes?)  With or without Bryce Harper, the Nationals will always be doomed to repeat their postseason failures.  Scherzer might be a future Hall of Famer, but 'Ol Blue Eye is not a future wild card game winner.  At least not until he signs with another team.

Prediction:  Milwaukee will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics

So remember what I said about pitching winning championships?  Well, we're going to get some pitching in this game.  Unless things change, Oakland will be going with Sean Manaea, who made just five starts this season, but posted a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his September to remember.  Tampa will be going with All-Star Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 and struck out 240 batters in just 194.2 IP.  And if you recognize his name, it's probably because you recall how great he was for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the seventh and deciding game to give Houston its first-ever championship.  In other words, he's got what it takes to pitch in a win-or-go-home game.

Manaea was great in September, but his last four starts were against the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers (twice) and Seattle Mariners.  Those three teams combined to finish 99 games under .500, meaning Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz could probably shut them down as well.

In addition, Tampa's lineup is as consistent as they come.  Nine players had 300 or more plate appearances.  Eight of those players had between 14 and 21 home runs.  (The one who didn't, Austin Meadows, hit 33 taters.)  No one on the Rays had as many as 90 RBI, but eight players drove in over 50 runs.  No player hit .300, but eight of the nine regulars hit over .250, and the one who didn't (Kevin Kiermaier) led the team in stolen bases.  How consistent were the Rays throughout the season?  They had 11 players with a bWAR of at least 2.0, but none with a WAR above 5.0.  And who is the one player worth exactly 5.0 WAR?  Why, it's wild card game starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

The game is in Oakland, but Tampa had the second-best road record in the majors at 48-33.  This team knows how to win on the road.  And their starting pitcher knows how to pitch when the team's season is on the line.

Touch 'em all, Travis.  (Scott Audette/AP)
Oh, and one more thing.  Travis d'Arnaud is on the Rays and he just had that breakout campaign (16 HR, 67 RBI in 92 games with Tampa Bay) we were told he'd have one day as a member of the Mets.  But in addition to his skills with the bat, d'Arnaud also made Charlie Morton better, as evidenced by the opponents' .202/.265/.361 slash line against Morton with d'Arnaud behind the plate.

The Coliseum hasn't seen a playoff victory in six years.  That streak isn't ending this year.  Right, Travis?

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS.




Monday, January 23, 2017

The Thrill of Victory, The Agony of the Mets: Daniel Murphy

When a young player experiences a pennant race for the first time, he's told to savor the moment because there's no guarantee that it'll happen again.  For one former Met who was thrust into the spotlight from the moment he first set foot on a major league diamond, he relished every opportunity to play meaningful games in September.  Alas, the calendar was only thing that made it to October that season, as the Mets fell short of their postseason quest.

The bright-eyed neophyte who tasted the sweet nectar of a playoff chase so early in his career became a grizzled veteran just six years later, one who played for a losing Mets team in each of those half-dozen seasons.  But just as the sun appeared to have set on another season, the Mets shocked the baseball cognoscenti by winning an unlikely pennant, giving their veteran second baseman a chance to finally play in the postseason after having just missed during his rookie campaign.  And once he got there, he turned October into his own personal stage.

Daniel Murphy's good side will always feature a bat in his hands.  (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Daniel Thomas Murphy was drafted by the Mets in the 13th round of the 2006 June Amateur Draft.  Murphy, who played third base at Jacksonville University, was a college teammate of Tony Bernazard's son when Bernazard was the Mets' vice president of player development.  Murphy's development in the Mets' minor league system began slowly, as the infielder batted just .213 during his first season as a professional.  Murphy's second year showed a marked improvement in his hitting ability, as he batted .285 for the St. Lucie Mets and led the team with 34 doubles and 78 RBI.  His defensive skills, however, were another story.

Flash back a few years to when Murphy was a student-athlete at Jacksonville.  While attending a team meeting, Murphy was once asked to state his name and defensive position.  Without hesitating, Murphy answered the question.

"I'm Daniel Murphy," he said, "and I bat third."

Defense was never one of Murphy's strong suits, which became quite obvious during his time in St. Lucie, as the third baseman committed 35 errors in 131 games with the team.  But as long as Murphy kept on hitting, his name would always find a way to be included on the lineup card.

In 2008, Murphy began the season playing above A-ball for the first time in his career.  He ended the year in the middle of a playoff race at Shea Stadium.  At Double-A Binghamton, Murphy batted .308 with an .870 OPS and spent time at every infield position except shortstop.  He even played four games in left field while in Binghamton, which came in handy later that summer when the Mets were looking for an injury replacement with some experience at the position.

The Mets began the 2008 campaign with Angel Pagan in left field filling in for the injured Moises Alou.  By the time the dog days of summer began in August, the Mets had used more left fielders than Spinal Tap used drummers.  Through the end of July, the Mets had played 108 games.  Incredibly, a total of 11 players had started in left field for the team by then, with none of them playing more than 20 games at the position.  Players such as Brady Clark, Trot Nixon, Andy Phillips and Chris Aguila all "earned" starts in left field for a team that was considered one of the best in the game.  Another participant in the season-long game of left field musical chairs was Marlon Anderson, who started 20 games before pulling his left hamstring on August 1.  The following night, left fielder No. 12 made his debut for the Mets, and his name was Daniel Murphy.

"I'm ecstatic to be here," Murphy said prior to the game.  "It'll probably hit me when I'm out in left field with 40,000 people around me."

Tony Bernazard, who was instrumental in the Mets' signing of Murphy in 2006, knew that Murphy was the right man to call up at that time.

"(Murphy's) the one who is most ready," Bernazard said.  "He will give you good at-bats all the time."

Put a bat in his hands and Murphy could do anything with the ball, even bunting it.  (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

For years, Bernazard knew how great a hitter Murphy was, but even he couldn't have expected the start Murphy would have in the majors.  In his first three weeks with the Mets, Murphy started 11 games in left field and appeared in seven games as a pinch-hitter, batting .404 with a .491 OBP in those 18 games.  Murphy also collected two doubles, a triple, two homers and 11 RBI in his first 55 plate appearances.  A reason for Murphy's early success was his ability to make the pitcher throw many pitches per at-bat, allowing him to see the pitcher's full repertoire.  In fact, Murphy worked a full count in more than 20% of his plate appearances (Murphy saw a 3-2 pitch in 31 of his 151 times at the plate).

Without question, Murphy's promotion gave the Mets a spark they hadn't experienced for the first two-thirds of the season.  When Murphy played his first game with the team on August 2, the Mets were in third place in the N.L. East and stood 3½ games behind the wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers.  A month and a day later, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the Brew Crew that gave them a 21-9 record since Murphy's debut.  Heading into the final week of the season, the Mets were in a race with the Phillies for the division title and the Brewers for the wild card.  They began the week with a four-game series against the N.L. Central champion Chicago Cubs.

Chicago had already wrapped up the best record in the National League by the time they arrived at Shea Stadium, but manager Lou Piniella continued to trot out his best players for the critical series.  The Mets and Cubs split the first two games and were knotted in the third contest as it went to the bottom of the ninth.  Murphy then brought the Shea Stadium crowd to its feet by leading off the inning with a triple off veteran reliever Bob Howry.  The 54,416 fans in attendance were eagerly anticipating a thrilling walk-off victory, especially with David Wright about to bat, Carlos Delgado on deck and Carlos Beltran in the hole, but Piniella continued to manage the game as if it were the seventh game of the World Series instead of a meaningless game for his club.

Wright struck out.  Delgado and Beltran were intentionally walked.  Ryan Church grounded out, with Murphy being forced out at the plate.  Ramon Castro fanned on three pitches.  Inning over.  Rally over.

Murphy tried to be the hero, and he would have been had the Mets defeated the Cubs in the bottom of the ninth inning on September 24.  But the Mets didn't win.  And they also didn't win their season-ending series against the Florida Marlins.  The Brewers won the wild card.  The Phillies clinched the division title and went on to win the World Series.  The Mets got nothing, other than the start of Daniel Murphy's major league career.

Although Murphy started only 30 games in left field for the Mets after his August call-up, that somehow led the injury-riddled team at the position.  Murphy entered the 2009 season hoping to give the Mets more stability at the position after the team saw a dozen players patrol left field in 2008.  It did not take long for the Mets to realize that perhaps Murphy wasn't the best option for the job.

On the first Sunday of the season, Johan Santana dominated the Marlins, striking out 13 batters in seven masterful innings.  But Santana was pinned with the loss, as Florida scored two unearned runs in the third inning after Murphy dropped a routine fly ball.  After the game, a clearly frustrated Santana was quick to throw Murphy under the bus for the loss.

Whoomp, there it isn't.  (Rothstein/Daily News)
"It's one mistake that he made," Santana said.  "It cost us the whole ballgame, but it's part of the game."

Not mentioned by Santana was the fact that he walked Jeremy Hermida prior to Murphy's gaffe and then allowed an RBI single to No. 8 hitter Ronny Paulino after the miscue.  Nor did Santana mention that the Mets' offense failed to show up for the game, as the team was shut out by Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson for 8⅔ innings.  Santana very well may have been speaking out of frustration, but the stigma of being a bad fielder, regardless of the position he was playing, stuck with Murphy for the rest of his career as a Met.

After starting 13 of the first 14 games of the 2009 season in left field, the lefty-swinging Murphy began to platoon at the position with the right-handed batting Gary Sheffield, who had played the majority of his career in the outfield.  But when starting first baseman Carlos Delgado suffered what became a career-ending injury on May 10 and after Jeremy Reed - who had played all of three games in his career at first base - made a crucial error at first that cost the Mets a game in Los Angeles a week later, the Mets decided to move Murphy back to the infield.

Murphy adjusted well to the infield life.  But once Murphy stopped worrying about dropping fly balls, it would be his teammates who would start dropping like flies.  In addition to Delgado, Jose Reyes' season also ended in May.  Carlos Beltran, who was among the league's leading hitters during the first two months of the 2009 campaign, eventually missed half of the season with a knee injury.  David Wright remained healthy until he was felled by a Matt Cain fastball to the noggin.  Sheffield, who for a while was the team leader in home runs, missed extended periods of time late in the season.  And how can we forget Luis Castillo falling down the Citi Field dugout steps in August, just two months after he dropped a fly ball of his own?  When everyone else went down, sometimes literally, Murphy remained the last Met standing.

The Mets could not overcome the rash of injuries that befell them in 2009, finishing the year with a 70-92 record, but Murphy's first full season in the majors was one of the few success stories for the team.  Although his batting average dipped to .266, Murphy managed to hit 38 doubles and a team-leading 12 homers.  He also led the club in games played and finished second to Wright in runs batted in.  But Murphy's injury-free campaign caught up with him over the next two seasons.

The 2010 season opened with Murphy on the disabled list due to a right knee sprain suffered at the end of spring training.  Due to the emergence of rookie first baseman Ike Davis, Murphy began to play games at second base during his minor league rehab assignment.  Unfortunately, a hard takeout slide while covering second caused Murphy to tear the MCL in his right knee, ending his season before he could return to the majors.  A year later, Murphy's season ended prematurely once again, and for the second straight year, it involved a collision at second base.

In 2011, Murphy was among the league leaders in hitting, boasting a robust .320 batting average in early August.  But after Braves' outfielder Jose Constanza spiked Murphy at second base on a stolen base attempt on August 7, Murphy suffered his second medial collateral ligament tear in a span of 14 months and would miss the rest of the season.

Murphy finally stayed healthy in 2012 and 2013, playing in 317 of a possible 324 games, and took over the everyday job at second base.  In 2012, Murphy became the first left-handed hitter in club history to hit 40 doubles in a single season and followed that up with a brilliant 2013 campaign, setting new career highs in homers (13), runs batted in (78), runs scored (92) and stolen bases (23).  And yet, for all the progress Murphy had made as a hitter, the focus still remained on his defense, as Murphy posted a -0.8 dWAR in 2012 and an even worse -1.5 dWAR in 2013.

The 2013 season also marked the fifth consecutive season that Murphy played for a losing team.  But things started to change for the Mets in 2014 and for Murphy as well.  The Mets won five more games in 2014 than they did in the previous season and finished in a tie for second place in the N.L. East.  They also outscored the opposition by 11 runs and saw an improvement in attendance at Citi Field for the first time since the park opened in 2009.  As for Murphy, he was finally recognized for his offensive talents by earning his first All-Star selection.  By the end of June, Murphy was batting .303 with 19 doubles, six homers, 32 RBI, 51 runs scored and 11 stolen bases.   He maintained a .300 batting average until late August, when a strained quad led to a stint on the disabled list.  The injury caused Murphy to struggle upon his return, as he ended the year with a .289 average.

Despite the slow finish, Murphy still led the Mets in hits, doubles and runs scored.  His recognition as a first-time All-Star capped a six-year period in which Murphy pushed himself to improve every facet of his game.  And when he finally received the All-Star nod, Murphy was humbled by the honor.

"It's a blessing," Murphy said.  "And I don't work any harder on this ballclub than anyone else does.  There's no doubt about that.  There's 24 men in here who work really hard.  It's just an honor.  It's humbling.  It's a fantastic blessing."

Daniel Murphy, All-Star.  (Elsa/Getty Images)

Murphy wasn't the only Met in 2014 to receive national attention, as pitcher Jacob deGrom ended a three-decade Rookie of the Year drought for the Mets, becoming the first Met to win the award since Dwight Gooden in 1984.  The emergence of deGrom, plus the return of fellow moundsman Matt Harvey from Tommy John surgery and the forthcoming debut of top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard gave the Mets hope that they would finally turn the corner in 2015.

The 2015 season would also be Murphy's final season before becoming a free agent for the first time, giving him extra incentive to have a solid season.  But even though the Mets got off to a fast start, tying a franchise record with an 11-game winning streak in April, Murphy did not.  When the calendar turned from April to May, Murphy was batting just .198.  But Murphy became a one-man hitting machine over the team's next 29 games, batting .352 with an .869 OPS.  Unfortunately, just like it did in 2014, a quad injury caused Murphy to miss 22 games in June.  And faster than you can say abracadabra, the Mets' offense disappeared.

In the three weeks they played without their second baseman, the Mets batted .217 as a team and scored an average of 2.8 runs per game.  The low point of Life Without Murphy occurred on June 9, when the Mets were no-hit by Giants' starter Chris Heston, who had just 12 major league starts prior to his gem at Citi Field.

Murphy eventually returned from his injury and three weeks later, the Mets returned to relevance with the acquisitions of Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and Yoenis Céspedes.  While all the attention was placed on the team's new members - which also included the team's top hitting prospect, Michael Conforto - Murphy quietly began to rake at the plate, batting .309 over the next two months.  Murphy also added something Mets fans weren't accustomed to seeing from him - power.

From July 25 through September 26, Murphy slammed eight homers and posted a .549 slugging percentage.  Included in his home run barrage was a mammoth blast into the Pepsi Porch during a nationally televised game against the Washington Nationals on August 2 and a game-tying, three-run homer in Atlanta on September 13 when the Mets were down to their final out of the game.  And of course, the Mets won both games.  In fact, the Mets had a 33-14 record when Murphy was in the starting lineup from July 25 (the night Johnson and Uribe made their Mets debuts) to September 26 (the day the team clinched the N.L. East division title).

From the night Murphy made his debut on August 2, 2008 until the final regular season game of the 2015 campaign, Murphy had played in 903 games for the Mets and had never appeared in the postseason, breaking Ed Kranepool's club record of 887 games played to start a career without a playoff game in the mix.  But that streak would end in 2015, as the Mets advanced to the National League Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.  It wouldn't take long for Murphy to begin a different kind of streak.

In Game One, Murphy was responsible for the series' first run, homering off three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw in the Mets' 3-1 victory.  Murphy took Kershaw deep again in Game Four, but the Mets lost that game to force a fifth and deciding game - a game that was single-handedly won by Murphy's bat and brain.

In the first inning, Murphy delivered an RBI double to give the Mets an early lead.  But the Dodgers proceeded to take the lead in the bottom of the first, a lead that remained intact until Murphy came up to the plate in the fourth frame.  On the first pitch delivered by Zack Greinke, himself a former Cy Young Award recipient, Murphy pulled a single to right.  Two batters later, Lucas Duda drew a walk, moving Murphy to second.  But with the Dodgers' infield employing a shift for the pull-happy Duda, third base was left vacated.  An observant Murphy noticed the lack of a fielder near the bag and took off for third, arriving safely without a throw.  Murphy then scored the tying run on a sacrifice fly by Travis d'Arnaud, literally stealing a run.

Murphy had already contributed to both of the Mets' runs in his first two at-bats.  When he faced Greinke for the third time in the sixth, he introduced the baseball to the right field seats.  On a 3-2 pitch from the Dodgers right-hander, Murphy lined a home run down the right field line, giving the Mets a 3-2 lead.  Starter Jacob deGrom and the bullpen (including Noah Syndergaard, who pitched a scoreless seventh) combined to keep the Dodgers hitless in their last four turns at bat to preserve the one-run lead and send the Mets to the National League Championship Series.

Flip that bat, Daniel!  You just sent the Mets to the NLCS!  (Harry How/Getty Images)

For five games, Murphy teed off against the best the Dodgers had to offer, clubbing three homers off Kershaw and Greinke.  Murphy would face another challenge in the NLCS, facing Jon Lester and Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta.  Challenge accepted.

  • Game One, first inning vs. Jon Lester:  Home run.  Mets lead, 1-0, and go on to win, 4-2.
  • Game Two, first inning vs. Jake Arrieta:  Home run.  Mets lead, 3-0, and go on to win, 4-1.

With the Cubs' top two starting pitchers out of the way, Murphy and the Mets coasted in the next two games at Wrigley Field.  With Game Three knotted in the fourth inning, Murphy delivered a tie-breaking blast against Kyle Hendricks to give the Mets a 2-1 lead.  The Mets held on to win, 5-2.  Murphy had now hit home runs in five straight postseason games.  Former teammate Carlos Beltran had been the only player to ever accomplish the feat in the playoffs, doing so with the Houston Astros in 2004.  And just one Met had ever homered in five consecutive games prior to Murphy.  That was Richard Hidalgo, who turned the trick during the 2004 regular season.  Both records would fall in a memorable Game Four.

The Mets were one win away from their first National League pennant in 15 years.  It took just 15 batters for the game to turn into a laugher.  New York scored six runs in the first two innings to take a commanding 6-0 lead.  The Mets scored their final two runs of the game in the eighth inning on a home run by - who else? - Daniel Murphy.

Murphy had homered in six straight games - a postseason record and a Mets' all-time mark - to lead the Mets to the World Series.  The former 13th round draft pick who had been with the Mets since they called Shea Stadium home had finally reached the promised land.  But alas, Murphy's dream postseason turned into a nightmare in the Fall Classic.  Not only did Murphy fail to hit a home run, he was also held without an RBI by the Kansas City Royals.  In addition, Murphy struck out seven times in the five-game series after being the toughest player to strike out in the National League during the regular season (38 Ks in 538 plate appearances).  And of course, his costly error in the eighth inning of Game Four allowed the tying run to score and led to the eventual winning run crossing the plate.

The Royals ended the Mets' season in Game Five, winning their first championship in three decades.  Kansas City also ended Murphy's tenure in New York, as the Washington Nationals gave Murphy 37.5 million reasons to leave the only team he had ever known.

"I've seen plenty of Daniel Murphy, believe me, as a general manager - often from the other side of the field," Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said.  "He is a player that plays the game the right way.  We love his attitude, his grit.  When the bright lights - not only in New York City - are on, (Murphy) shines the brightest." 

In 2008, rookie Daniel Murphy joined a Mets team that was poised to make it to the postseason, but fell short on the season's final day.  He then suffered through a number of personal injuries, several defensive position changes and more than enough losing baseball for six seasons before finally enjoying another September to remember as a 30-year-old veteran.  This time, Murphy and the team made it to the postseason party and extended their season all the way to November before the glass slippers finally came off.  And along the way, Murphy etched his name into the record books in a way no one could have expected.

Before he became a postseason hero for the Mets, Murphy was criticized for just about everything.  He wasn't a good defensive player.  He didn't hit with enough power.  He was a poor base runner.  Even off-the-field issues like missing Opening Day in 2014 to attend the birth of his first child and his comments about homosexuality due to his religious beliefs left Murphy open for criticism from fans and the media.

But with one amazing and unexpected postseason appearance, Murphy became the brightest star in a city full of them.  No one will ever be able to question his role in one of the most unlikely pennant runs in recent history.  And no one will ever be able to forget the story of the Met who once claimed his defensive position was batting third.

Daniel Murphy and his son, Noah, celebrate a memorable 2015 campaign.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)


Note: The Thrill of Victory, The Agony of the Mets is a thirteen-part weekly series spotlighting those Mets players and personnel who experienced the best of times and the worst of times with the team.  For previous installments, please click on the names below:

January 2, 2017: Tom Seaver
January 9, 2017: Mike Piazza
January 16, 2017: Wally Backman

 

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Joey's Soapbox: My 2016 Somewhat Biased Division Series Picks

Hope you're ready for my wicked awesome Division Series picks.

Hey you guys!  It's your fav'rit sports soothsayer, Joey Beartran, and I'm ready to share my division series picks with you.  And if the division series games are anything like the wild card games, you're in for quite a treat.  (Even if the Mets aren't one of the teams doing the treating.  #BlameBumgarner)

In this week-long wall-to-wall baseball extravaganza, we have a division series rematch that I'd love to have a ringside seat for (Blue Jays vs. Rangers), a matchup of two original American League teams (Red Sox vs. Indians), a series that will rack up plenty of frequent flyer miles for all involved (Dodgers vs. Nationals) and the beginning of the Cubs' quest to end their thousand-year drought without a title (give or take a few hundred years).

I considered many factors in determining my winners for each series.  Some of them required asking my Studious Metsimus colleague/nerd for statistical assistance, while some were just gut feelings (or maybe that gut feeling was my stomach growling; they kinda sound alike).

Now it's time to share those picks with you.  Will my picks agree with yours?  Maybe.  Will my reasons for those picks be similar to yours?  Probably not.  Am I wasting your time by asking so many questions?  Definitely.  (No more dilly-dallying, here are my picks.)


American League Division Series


Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers

This is the series everyone wanted to see.  Last year in the division series, Joey Bats (no relation) took time out from following everyone on Twitter to produce the Greatest Bat Flip of All-Time.  And earlier this season, his face became the recipient of the Greatest Slow Motion Punch of All-Time.

Odor's punch certainly did not stink.

That being said, both teams have to trade in the fisticuffs for other stuff, like actually playing baseball.

The two teams squared off (pun kinda sorta intended) seven times during the regular season, with Toronto taking four of the seven contests.  The three games won by Texas were all by the slimmest of margins - one run.  That shouldn't be surprising, as the Rangers finished the year with a jaw-dropping 36-11 record in one-run games.  That means the 95-win Texas team managed to go just 59-56 when their games were decided by two or more tallies.

So clearly the key for Toronto in this series is to make sure the game never gets to one-run status, right?  As a perfectly strange television character from the island of Mypos once said to his fictional cousin Larry, "Don't be ridiculous."

The key is clearly who can manage to out-slug the other (okay, that pun was pretty obviously intended).  Toronto won its wild card game against Baltimore with a three-run homer in extra innings.  Meanwhile, Texas was no slouch in the home run department either, as they managed to sock 215 homers.  The team leader in this department was part-time second baseman/part-time pugilist Rougned Odor, who socked 33 balls out of the yard.  Odor was one of five Rangers to hit 20 or more homers, while second-half acquisitions Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez combined to hit 26 HR in just 461 at-bats with Texas.

Now we all know good pitching beats good hitting, and Toronto had two starting pitchers (J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez) who combined to go an incredible 35-6 in 41 decisions.  But as my Studious Metsimus colleague/nerd tells me, that means the rest of the team's pitchers combined to go 54-67 in their 121 decisions.  So all Texas has to do is be patient, foul off a pitch or twelve, and someone will find a way to blow it for Toronto.  And don't be surprised if they turn it into a one-run game while they're in the process of blowing it.

Prediction:  Rangers in 5.


Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Here's a question for you.  After the Cubs' thousand-year drought without a World Series title, which team has gone the longest without sipping the championship champagne?  That would be the Cleveland Indians, who last won it all in 1948.

Prior to 2016, the city of Cleveland was known for three things - the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, the Christmas Story House, and non-championship winning sports teams.  In addition to the title-starved Indians, the Cleveland Browns had never played in a Super Bowl.  The Cleveland Cavaliers had never won an NBA title.  And the Cleveland Barons hockey team played two seasons in the NHL (winning 47 of the 160 games they played) before merging with the Minnesota North Stars in 1978.

That all changed this year, as the Cavaliers finally won their first championship after two previous unsuccessful appearances in the NBA Finals.  In addition, the Lake Erie Monsters (an American Hockey League team now known as the Cleveland Monsters) won their first Calder Cup in 2016 after having never won a postseason series in team history.

Two championships for Cleveland in one calendar year?  They've reached their quota for the century.  Sorry, Indians.

Prediction:  Red Sox in 4.


National League Division Series


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals

The Dodgers are one of the storied franchises in baseball history.  Their 29 postseason appearances are the most by a National League team and trail only the New York Yankees (52 playoff trips) in that department.  The Nationals began their existence as the Montreal Expos in 1969 and have won just one playoff series as a franchise (accomplished by the Expos in 1981).

The Dodgers have a now-healthy Clayton Kershaw (1.69 ERA, 0.725 WHIP in 21 starts) and Rookie of the Year candidate Kenta Maeda (16 wins, 3.48 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 179 Ks in 175.2 IP) atop their rotation.  They also have closer Kenley Jansen (47 saves, 1.83 ERA, 1.44 FIP, 0.67 WHIP, 104 Ks in 68.2 IP) to finish things up for the several hundred or so Dodger fans that decided not to beat the freeway traffic home.

The Nationals have a not-healthy Stephen Strasburg who is out of the NLDS.  They also have Tanner Roark, who had a good ERA (2.83), but the highest FIP (3.79) in the starting rotation.  Granted, the Nats have Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer atop their rotation, but he's pretty much the only sure thing in Washington.  As far as their bullpen goes, Washington had ten relievers pitch 35 or more innings this year.  Six of the ten had an ERA north of 4.00, including Oliver Perez, who was just a hair under 5.00.

Non-batting champion Daniel Murphy may have had a career year, but he's butt-hurt right now, literally, and he hasn't homered since August 26.  He also has just six RBI in his last 85 plate appearances.

Including Murphy and his problematic posterior, a total of eight players on the Nationals had 375 or more at-bats.  Five of the eight batted .244 or lower.  Murphy (.347 batting average) and rookie Trea Turner (.342 batting average in 307 AB) were the main reasons why the Nationals' .256 team batting average wasn't near the bottom of the league.

And then there's Bryce Harper.  The 2015 National League Most Valuable Player batted just .231 with a .382 slugging percentage and 108 strikeouts from April 27 to the end of the season.  That's in 128 games, bro.  And I'm pretty sure he's responsible for the rash of creepy clown sightings across the country.  Isn't that right, Bryce?

Leave it to Bryce Harper to be Captain Literal.

When in doubt, don't pick the team with Oliver Perez on its payroll, its best hitter experiencing a real life pain in the butt, and its superstar creating massive clown hysteria across the land.

Prediction:  Dodgers in 4.


San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs

Here are four reasons why even a person without a brain would call this pick a no-brainer.

The Giants will be down by two games and facing elimination by the time Madison Bumgarner gets a chance to pitch in Game Three.

The Cubs will be looking to erase the bitter taste left in their mouths by their 2015 postseason experience.  You know, the postseason that ended for them after not having a single lead in the four-game NLCS against the Mets.

The Giants' even-numbered year thing is getting old.  It's like 2015 old, or 2013 old, or even 2011 old.  In other words, the fact that people are still using that as a reason to pick them is pretty odd.

And how could I ever pick a team to win after they just ended the Mets' season?  I mean, really!  It's like picking Ray Ramirez to be your kid's gym teacher.  You wouldn't even do that if you have your kid fully insured. 

Prediction:  Cubs in 3.

Sorry, Ray.  A joke about you was needed to cheer me up after the Mets' bitter season-ending defeat.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Matt Harvey and the Mets' Mediocrity in His Starts

Until last night, the Mets hadn't won a regular season game started by Matt Harvey since last season's division clincher.  (Photo by Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

Matt Harvey earned his first regular season victory in last night's 6-3 win over the Atlanta Braves.  But more importantly, the Mets earned their first win in a Matt Harvey start since last year's division clincher.  Harvey had made four regular season appearances since the team won the N.L. East crown on September 26.  Those four contests included his un-Harvey-like three-game start to this season and the next-to-last regular season game of 2015 - a game in which the Mets were no-hit by Max Scherzer.

All told, Harvey has made 69 starts in his Mets career and the team has lost more than half of them, going 34-35 in the Dark Knight's appearances.  There are many reasons for the Mets' mediocrity in starts made by the pitcher many deemed to be the future of the franchise.

Harvey's bullpen has failed to protect his leads.  Like Johan Santana in 2008, who had seven leads blown by the team's bullpen, turning a potential 23-win, Cy Young campaign into a 16-win, third place finish in the balloting for top pitcher in the National League, Harvey has been occasionally victimized by his relief corps as well.  It all began in his final start in 2012, when Harvey pitched seven innings of one-hit ball against the Phillies, leaving the game with a 2-1 lead, only to see Josh Edgin surrender a two-run homer to Ryan Howard with two outs in the ninth.  The Mets lost that game, 3-2.

In 2013, the Mets won each of Harvey's first five starts, but then went 8-13 in his next 21 starts before his season was cut short in August due to the injury that caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery.  In three of those 13 losses, the Mets were leading the game when Harvey was removed by Terry Collins, only to see the bullpen become BFFs with opposing hitters, giving up Harvey's leads in eventual Mets losses.

Upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015, Harvey finally had some success helping the Mets earn victories, but the team still lost a dozen times in Harvey's 29 starts.  Once again, New York dropped three games in which Harvey left them with a lead to protect.  Add it all up and the Mets have lost seven games when Harvey was removed with the lead - or the same number of times the Mets' bullpen blew leads for Johan Santana in 2008 alone.  Had the bullpen been more successful for Harvey and the Mets in those seven instances, the team's 34-35 record in Harvey's starts could have been a more impressive 41-28.

But don't just blame the bullpen for the team's mediocrity in Harvey's starts.  In fact, the team has saved Harvey from a number of losses several times during his career as well.

On April 24, 2013, Harvey allowed three runs to the Dodgers in six innings.  When he left the game, the Mets trailed Los Angeles, 3-1.  New York tied the game in the ninth, then won it in the tenth on Jordany Valdespin's walk-off grand slam.  A month later, Harvey was all set to pick up a hard-luck loss when he pitched eight masterful innings against the Yankees but left the game with his team down, 1-0.  The Mets rallied for two runs in the ninth, marking the only time in Mariano Rivera's career that he came into a save situation and earned the loss without retiring a batter.

Fast forward two years later during the Mets' run to the N.L. East title in 2015.  On September 8, Harvey pitched an awful game in Washington, allowing seven runs to the Nats before he was removed with one out in the sixth and his team trailing by six.  Then Wilmer Flores happened (RBI single).  Then Curtis Granderson happened (bases-loaded walk).  Then Yoenis Cespedes joined the party (three-run bases-clearing double).  Then Lucas Duda remained patient (game-tying bases-loaded walk).  Finally, an inning later, Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit his final homer as a Met, taking Jonathan Papelbon deep for what became the winning run in the Mets' 8-7 victory.

There were also a game in 2015 where Harvey was actually helped out by his bullpen to help the Mets earn a victory.  On July 31, Harvey was removed from a 1-1 game against the Nationals with two runners on base.  But Tyler Clippard won a 13-pitch battle against Jayson Werth, striking out the hirsute slugger to preserve the tie.  Had Werth driven in a run or two against Clippard, those runs would have been charged to Harvey and the game might never have gone to extra innings.  But because Clippard and the rest of the bullpen (and eventually Wilmer Flores in the 12th inning) did their jobs, Harvey escaped with a no-decision and the Mets escaped with a much-needed win.

So that's four wins where Harvey could very well have been saddled with a loss, but the Mets stormed back to victory.  That 34-35 overall record by the team could have been a more disturbing 30-39 had those rallies not ensued.

It's true that Harvey has been more effective than not.  His 2.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his career says that's the case.  It's also true that the Mets' bats have had a tendency to hit the snooze button more than they've hit baseballs in too many of Harvey's starts.  Harvey has allowed two runs or fewer in 45 of his 69 starts, or 65.2% of the time.  In those starts, the Mets are just 27-18, for a .600 winning percentage.  That might seem okay until you look at how the Mets have fared when Jacob deGrom has allowed two runs or fewer.  DeGrom has held opponents to two runs or fewer in 36 of his 53 starts, or 67.9% of the time, which is not much higher than Harvey's percentage.  However, New York has a phenomenal 29-7 record when deGrom holds opponents to no more than two tallies.  That's good for an .806 winning percentage, which is far higher than Harvey's mark in similar outings.

To summarize, Matt Harvey has been a victim of everything that can contribute to his team's mediocre record in his starts.  He's been a victim of an occasionally shoddy bullpen.  He's also had his teammates take several days off at the plate when he's been on the mound.  But on the flip side, both the bullpen and the offense have also bailed Harvey out a few times.

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good.  In Matt Harvey's case, he's been very good throughout his career, but he also hasn't had the best of luck.  Put it all together and you have a four-year career that has produced just 34 victories by his team in his 69 starts.  It's a trend that's been going on for far too long and needs to change very soon if Harvey is ever going to be the type of pitcher everyone expects him to be.  His win against Atlanta last night needs to be the stepping stone for bigger and better things in the future.