17 Games Left: Third Is The Word

With today's loss to the Cubs, the Mets fell to 71-74 on the season.  They remain two thousand games behind the first place Phillies (that will change after tonight's Phillies-Brewers matchup has been completed) and a few hundred games behind the wild card-leading Braves (also pending tonight's game).  However, they do remain four games ahead of the fourth place Nationals and 5½ games in front of the lowly Marlins.

So the question is not whether the Mets can catch the Braves for the wild card or cut the Phillies' lead in the NL East to one thousand games (even though a three-game sweep of Philadelphia in two weeks would certainly help), it's whether or not the Mets can forget that there are 17 games left in the season and hold off the Nats and Fish to finish higher than fourth place for the first time since moving across the parking lot to Citi Field.

The 2007 and 2008 Mets famously went 5-12 and 7-10, respectively, in their final 17 games to lose their not-so-firm grip on first place and the wild card, failing to make the playoffs each year.  The 2009 Mets also went 7-10 in their final 17 games, but managed to hold off the Washington Nationals in their quest for fourth place in the NL East (mission accomplished - yes!)

Last year's team was 72-73 at the 145-game mark, as they were duking it out with the Marlins for third place.  They then proceeded to go (you guessed it) 7-10 in their final 17 games, finishing in fourth place, a game behind the Marlins, but at least ahead of the last place Nats.

So what can we expect the Mets to do this year now that they've reached the dreaded "17 to play" mark of the season?

For one thing, the Mets have what should be a comfortable lead in the NL East over the Nationals and Marlins.  But then again, being four games up on Washington doesn't guarantee anything.  The Nationals still have something to play for.  Since moving to Washington from Montreal following the 2004 season, the Nats have finished last in every year but one (2007, when they finished two games ahead of the cellar-dwelling Marlins).  With the potential for their highest finish in the NL East, the Nationals will surely be playing hard over their final 17 games.  The Marlins, on the other hand, just lost six games over the past two weeks to the Mets.  The demons of 2007 and 2008 have been exorcised and the Marlins should pose no threat to the Mets over their final 17 games (we hope).

A quick look at my once shiny, now falling apart Mets pocket schedule reveals that the Mets will be playing a four-game series with the fourth place (and hungry) Nationals next week at Citi Field.  The Mets cannot lose this series if a) they want to finish .500 or better and 2) they don't want to choke away third place to Jayson Werth and his cohorts.  They must split this series at the very least.  Taking three of four would all but eliminate the Nats from third place contention and a four-game sweep plus drilling Werth in his $126 million @$$ would be the cherry on top of the mediocre sundae.

It would behoove the Mets to do well against Washington because after that series, the Mets will be playing the wild card-leading Braves in Atlanta (they have a worse winning percentage at Turner Field than the Washington Generals have against the Harlem Globetrotters), followed by a trip to St. Louis against the somehow-still-in-it Cardinals, and topped off with a three-game set against the team with the best record in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies, who somehow are on their way to the best record in franchise history, even without the aforementioned Jayson Werth (guess their key off-season acquisition of Juan Samuel to be their third base coach really panned out for them).

Should the Mets falter against the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies, they'll need to sweep the Reds at Citi Field to close out the regular season to have any realistic hope of finishing ahead of the Nationals for third place.  The lowly Reds surely remember the Mets' first-ever four-game sweep in Cincinnati a few months ago, so they will not be an easy opponent, despite what the won-loss records say.

The Mets have gone 7-10 over their final 17 games in each of the last three seasons (and it's four out of five seasons if you go back to 2006; even that team went 7-10 over their final 17 regular season games).  Doing the same this year would produce a 78-84 record, a one-game dropoff from their 2010 final record.  It would also put them in jeopardy of being passed by the Washington Nationals for third place in the NL East.  Finishing .500 or better should be the ultimate goal for this year's Mets, but finishing in third place is the more likely (and attainable) goal.  It's time to show the rest of the National League East (meaning those teams not named Los Phillies or Los Braves) that this Mets team has had enough of late-season chokes and fourth place finishes.  Say it loud and say it proud!  Third is the word!  And nothing else will be acceptable!

17 Games To Decide The Season

In 2007, the New York Mets were sitting pretty atop the National League East, owners of a seven game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies with 17 games to play. They failed to make the playoffs.

The following year, they held a 3½ game lead in the division when the season was down to its final 17 games. Once again, the Mets did not advance to the postseason.

Everything changed for the Mets in 2007 and 2008 during those two 17-game stretches. Hopes were dashed as seasons crashed. Now the Mets are heading into another critical 17-game stretch. Although this one won't decide the outcome of an individual season, it might end up determining the direction of the entire franchise for years to come.

Beginning with tonight's second-half opener against the Phillies, the Mets play 17 games between now and July 31, the date of the trade deadline. The Mets have already traded away closer Francisco Rodriguez and have numerous teams interested in rightfielder Carlos Beltran.

Sandy Alderson has publicly stated that whether or not the Mets trade Beltran by July 31 rests on the performance of the team between tonight and the trade deadline. Should the team do well and inch closer to the Braves in the race for the wild card, Beltran might remain with the Mets past July 31. Should the team falter over the next two and a half weeks...well...you get the picture.

The Mets have already failed on two occasions when all they needed to do was play decently over a do-or-die 17-game stretch. Had the Mets gone 6-11 over the last 17 games of the 2007 season, they would have won the division title. Instead, they went 4-13 and found their way into the darkest pages of the history books. If they had only gone 8-9 over their final 17 games in '08, Milwaukee would have come to Shea Stadium for a one-game playoff to determine the NL Wild Card. Instead, the Mets went 7-10 and we Shea'd Goodbye earlier than we would have liked.

Failure over the next 17 games won't end the season. The Mets will still be playing baseball over the next two months. But losing over the next 2½ weeks would be tantamount to raising the proverbial white flag. If the Mets don't do well, Carlos Beltran will be traded for a prospect who may or may not be a part of the Mets' future, Jose Reyes might entertain thoughts of packing his bags once the season ends, and fans will come to Citi Field in August and September dressed as empty seats.

The Mets haven't had a winning season since they moved to Citi Field. They haven't won when the games have mattered the most for longer than that. Isn't it time for the Mets to scratch that 17-game itch?

Tom Glavine Officially Retires; Mets Fans Aren't Devastated

According to Mark Bowman at mlb.com, Tom Glavine has retired from baseball after 22 years in the major leagues. He will reportedly return to the Braves as a special assistant to team president John Schuerholz and will participate in Braves' radio and television broadcasts.

To baseball fans, Glavine was one of the best pitchers of his generation. He won 305 games over his career, including five 20-win seasons. He finished in the top three in Cy Young Award balloting six times, winning the award twice (1991, 1998).

Mets fans might remember him for something different. Some will remember Glavine for picking up his 300th career victory in 2007 as a member of the Mets. Others will remember his outstanding 2006 campaign; a year in which he finished with a 15-7 record in the regular season and followed that up with two more victories in the postseason, which included a sparkling 1.59 ERA.

Some of us (myself included) will only remember Glavine for his final appearance in a Mets uniform. On September 30, 2007, just one day after John Maine pitched his near no-hitter against the Marlins to help the Mets tie the Phillies in the standings going into the regular season finale, Glavine was only able to record one out against Florida. Sandwiched around that out were seven runs by the Marlins. Coupled with the Phillies' victory over the Washington Nationals, the Mets failed to repeat as division champions in 2007.

If his poor performance against the Marlins wasn't enough to enrage Mets fans, his post-game comments surely managed to do the trick. After the season-ending loss, Glavine offered this tidbit to reporters.

“I’m not devastated. I’m disappointed, but devastation is for much greater things in life. I’m disappointed, obviously, in the way I wanted to pitch. I can’t say there is much more I would have done differently.”

As a baseball fan, I appreciate what Tom Glavine did on the baseball field. He will be a first ballot Hall of Famer (and since he threw his last pitch in the majors in 2008, he is eligible to be enshrined with former Braves teammate Greg Maddux in 2014). He was a quality postseason pitcher. He was not a cancer in the clubhouse. He also taught us (with the help of the aforementioned Maddux) that "chicks dig the longball".

Chicks might dig the long ball, but Mets fans dig season-ending victories.

However, as a Mets fan, every time I think of the final 17 games of the 2007 season, instead of the frequent losses to the Nationals and Marlins, I think of Tom Glavine. Mets fans suffered a great deal as they watched their team lose the division title to the Phillies. We could not fathom that the Mets were part of an historic collapse. So when Tom Glavine did not echo the sentiments of Mets fans by saying he wasn't devastated by his performance and the outcome of the game, it came as no surprise that Mets fans had had enough of Glavine.

Congratulations on your retirement, Mr. Glavine. I'm happy that you had a successful and lengthy career in the major leagues. Based on your career achievements, you deserve to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I'm just not devastated to see you go.

17 Games Left: Can The Mets Hold Off The Nats?

We have reached the most critical stretch of games for the Mets this season. The Mets now have 17 games left in the season after tonight's loss to the Braves. Even a casual Mets fan knows the significance of that number. The Mets held their biggest divisional leads in 2007 and 2008 after their 145th games of each season. They had a 7-game lead with 17 games left in 2007 and a 3½-game lead in 2008 at the same point. In 2007 and 2008, the Mets finished 5-12 and 7-10, respectively. Those poor finishes kept the Mets from crashing the playoff party each year.

Now, we're in 2009 and the Mets have a 12½-game lead over the Washington Nationals with 17 games to play. That might seem like a big lead but remember, the Nats still have six head-to-head games left with the Mets. Those games could erase almost half of the lead should the Mets lose them all. The pressure is now on. Can they hold on to their lead or will they blow it again this year and fail to hold on to their stranglehold on fourth-place?

Studious Metsimus was able to locate some of the most famous 17s in franchise history for their opinions on the topic. The results were quite varied, to say to the least.

Jose Lima

"The Mets wouldn't have choked in '07 and '08 had I been there. Remember '06, when they let me go? What happened then? Did they make the World Series? The Red Sox had the Curse of the Bambino and the Cubs have the Curse of the Billy Goat. I gave the Mets the Curse of Lima Time! Also, had I still been there, we would have had more Merengue Nights! Buy my CD, dropping next Tuesday!"

Mr. Koo

"Why do you call me Mr. Koo? My name is Dae Sung. I have no opinion about the Mets and the Nats. I'm still hurt from when I slid into the bat against the Yankees."

Graeme Lloyd

"I wore #17 for the Mets? I don't even remember being on the Mets! Everything is a blur since I was in that fight against the Orioles when I was a Yankee. I hope you don't show the picture of me missing with a right hook."

Felix Millan

"As a member of teams that did well (1973 pennant-winning Mets) and teams that didn't do so great (1977 Midnight Massacre Mets), I think the Mets will hold off the Nats and at the same time, they will not hold off the Nats. By the way, I'm now bipolar and have identity problems. For some reason, when I go out, people think of I'm some guy named Keith Hernandez. Who's this Keith Hernandez guy? I'm Felix Millan!"

Keith Hernandez

"I'm Keith Hernandez."

There you have it, SMFs. It looks like no one knows where the Mets will finish this year. The magic number to clinch fourth place is now down to 6. If the Mets can split their remaining six games against Washington, they can go back to their losing ways that they've become so fond of.

I'm not holding my breath waiting for that to happen. If I did that, I might start looking like Brainy Smurf before they clinch (if they clinch?) fourth place. The Mets have teased us too many times before. I won't rest easy until that magic number is down to zero. Then and only then will I pop the cork!