Jonathan Lucroy Isn't Yoenis Céspedes, Or Is He?

Jonathan Lucroy may not be Yoenis Cespedes, but he sure looks a lot like Daniel Murphy.  (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

No one is going to confuse Jonathan Lucroy with Yoenis Céspedes.  Céspedes is a slugger who has never hit fewer than 22 homers in any of his five seasons in the majors, averaging 31 homers and 103 RBI for every 162 games played, while Lucroy's career high in home runs is 18.  Céspedes is also a left fielder, while Lucroy squats behind the plate.

But despite the obvious differences, Lucroy has the potential to be an impact player just like Céspedes was last year for the Mets.  Allow me to explain.

The Mets have two problems.  When they're on offense, especially with runners in scoring position, they turn into a Mario Mendoza cover band.  And believe me, they've covered him very well, batting .202 (148-for-732) with runners in scoring position.

The team's other problem occurs when they're on defense.  They allow too many [expletive deleted] stolen bases!  New York has allowed 84 steals in 111 attempts, allowing opposing base runners to steal at a 76% success rate.  The average major league team has allowed just 52 stolen bases and a 71% success rate, so yeah, I'd call this a problem for the Mets.

So how do the Mets fix these two problems with just one player?  All they have to do is make a trade for Jonathan Lucroy.

For the season, Lucroy is batting .300 with 17 doubles, 13 homers and 50 RBI.  He also has a .360 on-base percentage and a .484 slugging percentage to give him an .844 OPS.  Now consider this.  Lucroy's .300 batting average and .844 OPS are both higher than the marks Céspedes was producing at the time the Mets acquired him last year.  (La Potencia was batting .293 and had an .829 OPS when he was traded to New York.)

It's true that Céspedes had driven in more runs at the time of the swap, as Yoenis had amassed 61 RBI before coming to the Mets, or 11 more than Lucroy has now.  But remember that Lucroy is a catcher and therefore did not have all the plate appearances that an outfielder like Céspedes would have.  Lucroy's 50 RBI in 324 at-bats this year (an RBI every 6.5 AB) is comparable to the 61 RBI produced by Céspedes last year in 403 at-bats prior to becoming a Met (an RBI every 6.6 AB).

Lucroy also excels at driving in runners in scoring position when there are two outs, batting .289 in those situations.  That would be a marked improvement over the paltry .164 batting average the Mets currently have under those circumstances, which includes the .308 mark put up by Céspedes.  (Take out Céspedes and the team would have a .152 batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position.  Yeah, it's really that bad.)  Imagine a lineup with two players hitting back-to-back who can produce when the team is down to its last out in an inning!  That's what Lucroy would bring to the Mets.

Now, as great as Céspedes was with the bat both last year and in 2016, there's nothing he can do about the plethora of stolen bases being registered against the Mets.  If you recall, earlier this week Céspedes hit a home run against the Cardinals that gave the Mets a late-inning lead.  However, a two-run rally by the Cardinals in the ninth inning, which included a stolen base by Jeremy Hazelbaker to set up the tie-breaking hit by Kolten Wong, caused a potential wonderful win by the Mets to turn into a devastating defeat.

Céspedes couldn't do it all in that game against St. Louis.  That's where Jonathan Lucroy comes in.

Do you know which catcher is leading the league in most base runners caught stealing?  That would be one Jonathan Charles Lucroy.  Lucroy has gunned down 32 would-be base stealers, or five more than Travis d'Arnaud, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki have been able to throw out ... combined!  In addition, Lucroy has thrown out 40% of the runners trying to steal a base against him.  The National League average is just 28%.

So let's review.

Have bat, will travel - hopefully to New York.  (Rob Tringali/Getty Images)

Jonathan Lucroy has produced just as much with the bat this year with the Brewers as Céspedes did last year with the Tigers prior to Yoenis being traded to the Mets.  Lucroy is just as likely to drive in a run as Céspedes is.  It just doesn't show up in the cumulative numbers because Lucroy plays fewer games due to the fact that he is a catcher.

Lucroy is batting 125 points higher than the Mets are in two out/RISP situations, meaning that he is much more likely to collect the two-out hit needed to drive in a runner from second or third base than your typical Met is.  This would put an end to those frustrating innings when the Mets put multiple men on base but don't bring them home.

And finally, Lucroy would cause the running at will against Mets pitchers to slow down a bit once opposing base runners realize that he's actually quite adept at throwing them out.  That would thwart potential rallies and keep runs off the board.

When Rene Rivera is leading Mets catchers in home runs and RBI with four and 17, respectively, and there is the potential to acquire another catcher with a 13 and 50 in those categories, you know the Mets have to pull the trigger on this deal.

Jonathan Lucroy isn't the sexy name that Yoenis Céspedes was last year and he probably can't hit balls into the third deck at Citi Field like the Mets' outfielder has, but Lucroy can help the Mets in so many ways that even Céspedes can't.  And he could be the difference between the Mets playing meaningful games in October again or the Mets watching other teams doing the same.

Fun Facts About Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe

Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe were traded by the Atlanta Braves to the New York Mets yesterday for minor leaguer pitchers John Gant and Robert Whalen.  The trade instantly gives the Mets a credible third baseman who can actually hit in Uribe.   (Sorry, Soup.  You may be good food, but you're a lousy hitter.)  It also gives the Mets versatility with Johnson, who can play multiple infield positions as well as the outfield.

Okay, all that you know.  It's not my duty to regurgitate what others have already written about the two newest Mets.  Rather, it falls upon me to share what you didn't know or what you would not have thought of asking, mainly for fear that someone would think you were a weirdo or a forty-something who lives in your mom's basement and craves more meat loaf.

So let's not dilly-dally any longer.  Ladies and gentle-Mets, I present to you some fun facts about Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe.

Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson celebrate a home run by Uribe against Washington.  Uribe loves to face N.L. East pitchers.  (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)

Out of the first 1,000 Mets to appear in a Mets uniform, Johnson was one of the most common surnames, while Uribe had never been seen on the back of a Mets jersey.  In fact, when Kelly Johnson makes his Mets debut, he will be the eighth Johnson to play for the Mets (this doesn't include all-time club leader in managerial wins and division titles, Davey Johnson).  Kelly Johnson will join Bob W. (1967), Bob D. (1969), Howard (1985-93), Lance (1996-97), Mark (2000-02), Ben (2007) and Rob (2012) in the fellowship of the Johnson ring.  The surname Johnson will also tie Jones as the most common last name in club history.  For all you kids out there who like to keep up with the Joneses, those players' first names were Sherman (1962), Cleon (1963, 1965-75), Randy (1981-82), Ross (1984), Barry (1992), Bobby J. (1993-2000), Chris (1995-96) and Bobby M. (2000, 2002).

Newton's Third Law of Motion states that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."  The same can be said for the two newest Mets.  For every Johnson that has donned a Mets uniform, there have been no Uribes.  In fact, Juan Uribe will become just the third Met to have his last name begin with the letter "U", joining Del Unser (1975-76) and Lino Urdenata (2007).  When Uribe plays his third game for the Mets, he will pass Urdenata into second place for games played by a "U" player, as Lino appeared in only two games as a reliever and amassed a grand total of one inning pitched for the 2007 Mets.  How uncommon has it been for a Met to have his last name begin with the letter "U"?  Let's just say there have been as many Mets players to have surnames beginning with a lower case "d" (Matt den Dekker, Travis d'Arnaud, Jacob deGrom) as there have been upper case "U" guys.

Even in this era of free agency, it's rare to have a player suit up for every team in the same division.  Octavio Dotel, who began his career as a Met in 1999 and played for a major league record 13 teams, couldn't manage this feat.  Neither could Mike Morgan, Ron Villone or Matt Stairs, despite the fact that each player played for a dozen different franchises.  But not only has Kelly Johnson accomplished this rare achievement, he played for all five teams within a division in a span of less than two years.

The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays on August 23, 2011.  He then signed as a free agent with the Tampa Bay Rays on February 5, 2013.  Ten months later, he signed a free-agent contract with the New York Yankees, who then traded him to the Boston Red Sox on July 31, 2014.  Thirty days later, on August 30, 2014, he was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles.

So let's review the stops made on Le Tour de Johnson.  On Closing Day 2012, he was a member of the Blue Jays.  He then played the entire 2013 season with the Rays, followed by a three-team pit stop in 2014, splitting time between the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles.  That's all five American League East teams in exactly 23 months (his last game with Toronto was on October 2, 2012 and his first game with Baltimore was on September 2, 2014).  Perhaps his familiarity with the A.L. East is one of the reasons the Mets acquired him, as the team plays the Rays, Orioles and Red Sox in August and square off against the Yankees in September.  Johnson can exact a modicum of revenge against the A.L. East squads that spurned him.

Speaking of reasons why the Mets acquired these two players, Juan Uribe has always been a good major league hitter, smacking 20+ homers in four separate seasons.  (By comparison, only six players in Mets history have produced four or more 20-HR campaigns while in a Mets uniform - Darryl Strawberry, Mike Piazza, David Wright, one of the eight Johnsons [Howard], Dave Kingman and Kevin McReynolds.)  But in addition to his prowess in power, Uribe has always handled N.L. East pitching extremely well.

Uribe has started 155 games in his career against the four teams he will now face the most (Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington).  That's just about a full season's worth of games.  Against those four teams, Uribe has a .279 batting average and a .439 slugging percentage, which is higher than the lifetime .255/.419 numbers he has put up against all the other teams he's faced.  He's also produced 62 extra-base hits in 606 at-bats against the four teams - an average of one extra-base hit every 9.77 at-bats.  He averages an extra-base hit every 11.0 at-bats against every other team.  It should be noted that beginning next Friday, 35 of the Mets' last 60 games are against N.L. East teams.

Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe have been brought aboard to fill a few holes in the offense, which has been downright offensive at times.  Anyone can spit out numbers (kinda like I just did in that last paragraph), but who's going to tell you about the abundance of Johnsons and the dearth of Uribes in Mets lore?  How are you going to compete against Gary Cohen and Howie Rose in next year's edition of "Beat The Booth" if you don't know about the Tour de Johnson?  And before you say that Uribe's an old fart who will only be competitive in a hot dog eating contest against Bartolo Colon, not only is Uribe a slayer of cured meats, but he's also a slayer of the N.L. East, having terrorized pitchers in the division for the equivalent of a full season.

Hey, at least if Uribe doesn't work out as a hitter, he can always manage the team for a day, as he did last year for the Dodgers. 

The Mets Should Just Say No to Justin Upton

Stop making eye contact, you guys.  You might make us think something's brewing here.

With less than two weeks to go until the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, the Mets are in sore need of a bat or three.  Well, duh.  That's all anyone is talking about these days.  And one team that keeps popping up as a potential trade partner for the Mets is the underachieving San Diego Padres.  The Padres supposedly upgraded their entire outfield this past off-season, adding Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton in an attempt to give a quick adrenaline boost to their offense.  The only problem was that the rapid shot of energy faded before the season began.

San Diego ranks 20th in the majors in runs scored and only the Mets (.233) and Seattle Mariners (.235) have a lower team batting average than the Padres (.238).  And no one - not even the Mets - can claim a lower team on-base percentage than the .294 OBP being produced by the Padres.  Because of their putrid offense and middle-of-the-pack pitching (3.91 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.30 WHIP), the Padres enter the day with a 42-49 record, just two games ahead of the last-place Colorado Rockies in the NL West and 3½ games in front of the Miami Marlins for the second-worst record in the entire league.

Without question, the Padres will be sellers at the trade deadline, just months after first-year general manager A.J. Preller bought the farm, the cows and both Upton brothers.  One player who might appeal to the Mets is the younger (and better) Upton sibling, Justin, whose 15 homers and 49 RBI are more than any current Met has recorded this season.  And although his .254 batting average is just okay, it would be only be surpassed by Daniel Murphy's .272 mark out of all the everyday players on the team.

On the surface, this seems like a no-brainer, even though Upton would just be a rental player, as he is in the final year of a six-year contract he originally signed with Arizona back in 2010.  The Mets wouldn't be committed to paying him beyond this season, just as outfield prospect Michael Conforto inches his way closer and closer to the big league squad.

But there are many reasons why the Mets should just say no to Justin Upton.  Here are a few of them.

Do you remember Richard Hidalgo?  He was traded to the Mets in mid-June 2004 and became an overnight sensation.  New York won its first four games with Hidalgo in the lineup, pushing the team above .500 for the season.  A week later, Hidalgo embarked upon a one-month home run tear.  From June 27 to July 29, Hidalgo batted .308 with 12 HR and 24 RBI.  He hit home runs in five consecutive games to begin the month of July, making him the first and only Met to homer in five straight contests.

Hidalgo sounded like a good buy, but before long, it was the Mets saying goodbye to him.  Take away his hot month and Hidalgo batted .189 with nine homers and 28 RBI during the rest of his short Mets career.  Hidalgo was the epitome of the streaky hitter, much like Justin Upton is today, and Hidalgo's cold streaks - like Upton's - tend to last longer than his hot ones.

During his first two months as a Padre, Upton was one of the best hitters in the league, batting .307 with 12 HR and 37 RBI.  Upton also posted a .545 slugging percentage, a .913 OPS and collected hits in 38 of his first 51 games, which included 15 multi-hit games.  But since the calendar turned to June, Justin has hit more like his brother Melvin, batting .179 with three home runs and 12 RBI in 37 games.  In the same time period, Upton (Justin, not Melvin) has nearly twice as many strikeouts (45) as he has hits (24).

This is nothing new for Upton, as he batted .301 with 13 homers in his first 53 games last year with Atlanta, then proceeded to bat .252 with 15 homers over his next 100 games.  The year before that, in his first season as a Brave, Upton tore the cover off the ball in his first 25 games, batting .304 with 12 HR and 19 RBI.  He then faded over the next four months, batting .244 with 12 HR and 45 RBI over his next 109 games.

Upton was a product of his ballpark when he played in Arizona.  From his first full season with the Diamondbacks in 2008 until his final year in the desert in 2012, Upton batted .311 in his home ballpark.  He managed just a .244 batting average on the road in those five seasons.  He also had just 41 homers in nearly 1,300 at-bats on the road from 2008 to 2012, while taking advantage of his home park in Arizona to hit 65 home runs in 63 fewer at-bats.

Ever since he left Chase Field, his strikeout totals have gone through the roof.  In his six seasons as a Diamondback, Upton surpassed 140 strikeouts just once, fanning 152 times in 2010.  Once he left Arizona, Upton became a human whiff machine, striking out 161 times in 2013 and topping that with 171 Ks in 2014.  So far in 2015 with the Padres, Upton has fanned 96 times, putting him on pace to strike out a career-high 173 times this season.  To put that in perspective, half of the Mets' everyday players are on pace to reach triple digits in strikeouts, but none of those players are whiffing at an Uptonian pace, as Lucas Duda leads the team with 92 punchouts.

Finally, check out this stat provided to us by the incomparable Michael Baron on Twitter.

The #Mets are a completely useless 0-36 when trailing after 7 innings this season.

— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) July 18, 2015

One of the reasons the Mets are winless when they trail late in ballgames is the fact that as bad as they've been at the plate throughout the entire season, they're even worse in the late innings.  In the first six innings of games, the Mets are collectively batting .242 with a .391 slugging percentage.  That's not very good, but it gets progressively worse from innings seven through nine.

In the seventh inning, the Mets have a .215 batting average and a .310 slugging percentage.  That goes down slightly to .214/.307 in the eighth inning.  And in the ninth inning, those numbers go down to .197 and .281, respectively.  We're not talking about just the ninth innings when the Mets are facing the opposing team's hard-to-hit closer.  We're talking about every ninth inning situation - when the Mets have the lead, when they're tied and not facing the closer, when they're being blown out.  In every possible situation, the Mets just can't hit in the late innings of games.  And adding Justin Upton wouldn't change that very much.

Upton was a very good late-inning hitter in Arizona, batting .282 and posting a .460 slugging percentage in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings from 2008 to 2012.  Since 2013 - his first year away from the desert - Upton has batted .240 in late inning situations and has seen his slugging percentage in those spots drop from .460 in 2013 to .404 in 2014 to just .389 this year.  While it is true that a .240 batting average and .389 slugging percentage are better than what the average Met has done this year in the late innings of games, it's still not an acceptable mark for a player making over $14 million this year.  (Upton's .240/.389 marks in innings seven through nine are also slightly lower than what the Mets have produced in innings one through six.)  More importantly, it's not nearly enough production for a player who would be brought in to recharge the batting order's batteries, costing the Mets several good minor league prospects to acquire a player of his caliber.

Justin Upton is an above-average major league player.  But he's just not good enough to give the Mets what they need to overcome the season-long doldrums they've had at the plate.  He's not the same hitter he was in Arizona, he's too streaky and he's no longer a good hitter when the game is potentially on the line.

What the Mets need is a player who hits in any park, is consistent at the plate and does not wilt under the late-inning pressure.  The onus to find that player or players will fall on Sandy Alderson's shoulders.  The player who should not be at the top of his shopping list is Justin Upton.  The team would be better served to shop at a different store as the trade deadline approaches.

Joey's Soapbox: I'm Okay With Sandy Standing Pat

Hello, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran.  Today's trade deadline combined with my Studious Metsimus colleague having a fever has allowed me to get on my soapbox for the first time since Scott Atchison was still a Met.  Needless to say, I've had a lot of things on my mind since my last soapbox rant, but today is not about ranting.  In fact, it's about giving praise to Sandy Alderson.

You see, while teams like the Tigers have been trying to employ every Cy Young Award winner on the planet and the Red Sox have been involved in two blockbuster trades involving all their John/Jons (Beantown says goodbye to Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and John Lackey, while Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig are all shipping up to Boston), the Mets decided they're better off not forcing any deals.  And that's just fine with me.

Ten years ago yesterday, then-general manager Jim Duquette pulled the trigger on two ill-advised deals, sending Ty Wigginton and Jose Bautista (yes, THAT Jose Bautista) to the Pirates for Jeff Keppinger, Kris Benson and Anna Benson.  Duquette also sent Jose Diaz and former No. 1 draft pick Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato.

Keppinger played just 33 games as a Met before being traded to Kansas City, while the Bensons combined for 14 wins, a 4.23 ERA, a sexy Santa and a whole lot of controversy.  Meanwhile, Wigginton and Bautista have combined to produce 371 homers and 1,098 RBI since removing their "Property of the New York Mets" T-shirts.

Although the loss of Jose Diaz didn't hurt the Mets much, the loss of Scott Kazmir did.  Kazmir has been wobbly at various points of his career, but he has still reached double digits in wins in seven seasons and is currently having the best year of his career, going 12-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his first year with the Oakland Athletics.  He also earned his third All-Star selection in 2014.  What legacy did Zambrano and Fortunato leave behind?  Well, Zambrano failed to be "fixed in ten minutes" by pitching coach Rick Peterson and posted ten wins and a 4.42 ERA in three mostly uneventful seasons with the Mets.  Meanwhile, Fortunato had a 7.06 ERA in 17 relief appearances, which is the sixth-highest ERA for a Mets pitcher with that many appearances.

Duquette made these deals while the Mets were four games under .500, seven games out of first place in the NL East and seven-and-a-half games out of the wild card spot.  If those numbers look familiar, that's because this year's Mets are four games under .500, seven-and-a-half games out of first place in the division and six games out of the second wild card spot.

The 2004 Mets went 22-38 after their two trade deadline deals, finishing 25 games out of first and costing Jim Duquette his job.  Ten years later, Sandy Alderson has decided to stand pat and continue with his plan, a plan that includes players like Lucas Duda, Jon Niese, Jacob deGrom, et al.  Alderson has also finally handed over the keys to the bullpen to younger players like Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia, a move that has the Mets steering in the right direction.

It is obvious that there are still some positions that could be improved, but there is no need to force anything now.  Deals for a shortstop can be made in the winter, as can an upgrade to the outfield.  After all, anything will be better than the Chris Young Experiment.

The Mets have players to trade.  They just don't need to trade them now.  They most certainly don't need a repeat of the 2004 trade deadline fiasco.  At least the Mets had the funds then to buy their way out of that hole.  They don't have those funds now.  So it is wiser to be prudent now, especially with Matt Harvey coming back next season to bolster an already strong starting rotation.

I probably would have had more to rant about on my soapbox had Alderson pulled the trigger on a deal today.  But he did not.  And I think the Mets are better off because of it.  The future is bright at Citi Field.  It did not to get cloudy with an unnecessary trade.  Bravo to Sandy Alderson for standing pat at this year's trade deadline.

Blame Beltran For Me Wanting Johan Santana To Take His Time

The Mets have announced that Johan Santana will not break camp with the Mets when the team heads north next weekend.  Santana has still not been able to pitch off a mound and only today will begin long-tossing, albeit from a distance of just 90 feet.

As much as I would like to see Santana tantalize hitters at Citi Field with his signature change-up, I wouldn’t mind if he took a little extra time before joining the team in New York.  Why would I ever want the Mets’ ace to take it slow when the Mets could use his services in Flushing?  The answer to that can be summed up in two words.

Blame Beltran.

Even now, Carlos Beltran might still be able to give a hand to the recovering Johan Santana.

In 2011, Carlos Beltran was entering the final year of his seven-year, $119 million contract.  The outfielder had not played a full season in the major leagues since 2008 because of an assortment of injuries.  When the 2011 campaign opened, the Mets didn’t expect much from Beltran.  They were just hoping he could stay healthy so that he would have some value at the trade deadline.  Beltran went on to post outstanding offensive numbers, collecting 32 doubles, 15 homers and 66 RBIs by late July.  His power and run production were far and away the best of any player on the team, as he remained the team leader in home runs and RBIs at season's end even though he played the final two months of the year as a member of the San Francisco Giants.

Despite missing large chunks of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Beltran was able to put together several good months in 2011.  Those months of solid production made Beltran a valuable trade chip and netted the team über-pitching prospect Zack Wheeler at the trade deadline.

Fast forward two years later.  Now it’s Johan Santana’s turn to be in the final year of his lucrative multi-year contract.  Like Beltran, Santana is coming off a number of injury-plagued seasons.  And like Beltran, the Mets are hoping Santana can provide some flashes of his former brilliance so he can become a valuable trade commodity come late July.

After missing the entire 2011 campaign, Santana was excellent for the first two months of the 2012 season.  The southpaw pitched the team’s first no-hitter and was among the league leaders in ERA and strikeouts through early June.  But everything began to unravel for Santana prior to the All-Star Break and he was shut down for the season in mid-August.

If Santana were ready to pitch for the Mets on Opening Day, he could break down once again before the trade deadline.  Then he would have no value at the trade deadline.  But by slowing him down and not pushing him back into the starting rotation too soon, it might keep him healthy, and most importantly, productive through the All-Star Break.

No one thought the Mets would be able to trade Beltran because of his injury history and his high salary.  But Beltran was able to stay healthy and productive through the first half of 2011, and San Francisco was desperate to defend their 2010 World Series championship.  Desperate times called for desperate measures.  And desperate times forced the Giants to call Sandy Alderson, giving in to the general manager's demands for the outfielder.

Don't look back, Carlos.  Sandy Alderson might be there.

With the addition of a second wild card in each league, more teams will think of themselves as contenders as the trade deadline approaches.  Those teams will be looking for anything to push them over the top.  Some teams will be looking for hitters, while other teams will be inquiring about bullpen help.  But all the Mets need is one team to have a hole in their starting rotation – a hole that can be plugged by a healthy and productive left-handed veteran.

Zack Wheeler was pitching in A-ball when the Mets acquired him in the Carlos Beltran deal.  Two years later, he is within a few months of earning his first call-up to the major leagues.  If all goes well, perhaps he’ll receive that call in late July.  Perhaps Wheeler will be called upon to replace Johan Santana in the rotation because the Mets found a suitor willing to part ways with a prospect for his services.  And perhaps it’ll all happen because Santana was able to give the Mets a few productive months in 2013.

The Mets have capable starting pitchers in their starting rotation.  They do not need to rush Johan Santana back before he’s 100% ready to go.  In 2011, Carlos Beltran gave the Mets a productive four months.  Because of it, the Mets might get a productive decade from Zack Wheeler.  All the Mets need from Santana is a few productive months and they might get another Zack Wheeler type from a team that believes it has a shot to play in October this year.

Former Mets general manager Jim Duquette once traded away his team’s top pitching prospect for the never-an-ace Victor Zambrano.  Even a less-than-100% Johan Santana is better than Zambrano ever was.  Imagine the prospects the Mets can fleece if Santana is anywhere near 100% in June and July.

Carlos Beltran has been unfairly blamed for everything that has gone wrong for the Mets since Game 7 in 2006.  But if Johan Santana can follow his example and become healthy and productive at the right time, perhaps other teams might blame Beltran for something.  Better them than us.

As The Trade Winds Blow, The Mets Just Say No

Today is July 31, the day circled on baseball calendars as the non-waiver trade deadline.  Many teams took advantage of the situation.  Some sold off their players to add young pieces to a puzzle not meant to be put together until next year at the earliest.  Others added talent, hoping that their new acquisitions can push them, as they say in the baseball vernacular, over the top.

After a surprisingly good start, the Mets thought they would be one of the latter teams, buying spare parts in order to put together a machine that would still be running in October.  But then they lost 13 of their first 15 games after the All-Star Break, going from six games over .500 and half a game out of the second wild card spot to five games below mediocrity and 8½ lengths behind the final playoff horse.

The question then became, “will Sandy Alderson still be a buyer come July 31 or will he be a seller?”  It turns out he was neither, as the clock struck four without any changes being made to the Mets.

The Marlins and the Phillies both became poster children for underachievement, spending the majority of the season at the bottom of the National League East, the chunk of real estate that was supposed to be inhabited by the Mets in 2012.  As a result, both teams pretty much had to become sellers at the trade deadline, with Miami dealing away half of their team and the Phillies air-mailing Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to the Dodgers and Giants, respectively.

The Mets, on the other hand, did not fold.  Nor did they go for broke.  Instead, they decided to step away from the table and watch the game in front of them unfold.  And that’s not such a bad thing.

In 2012, the Mets didn’t have any players on the roster they had to get rid of.  Last year, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran had to be dealt.  The former could not stay with the team for fear that has bazillion dollar option would kick in and the latter was not going to be re-signed at season’s end, meaning he would walk away for basically nothing.  By July 31, 2011, the Mets had rid themselves of the potential payroll-busting Rodriguez by trading him to the Milwaukee Brewers.  They also fleeced the Giants, acquiring their top pitching prospect in Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, who ended up being a two-month rental.  This year, things are different.

The Mets’ payroll is now under $100 million.  They do not have any players about to reach an eight-figure vesting option.  They also do not have any high-priced potential free agents (a la Beltran) that they have to trade for prospects.  Instead, all they have are the relatively low-salaried Scott Hairston and Tim Byrdak as potential trade-bait.  Both veteran players could have potentially helped other teams, but the Mets weren’t going to get a top prospect for either of them and neither player was breaking the bank anyway, so there was no urgency to move them.  Teams inquired, but the Mets said “thanks, but no thanks.” 

Let other fringe contenders sell off their future in an attempt to defy the odds and make the playoffs.  The Mets will be just fine as they are.  The offseason will be the time for Sandy Alderson to carefully move pieces into place, not July 31.  The team will be better off in the future by not making unnecessary moves in the present.

Joey's Soapbox: Sandy Alderson Should Be Buy-Curious At The Trade Deadline

Hello, everyone.  This is Joey Beartran and although you can’t see it right now, I’m standing on my soapbox.  However, it might be time to get a new soapbox soon as this one is about to give way.  No, it’s not because I’ve been having too many of the new nacho selections at Citi Field (mmm, bacon cheeseburger nachos).  It’s because the Mets have been providing the fodder for me to rant on, necessitating multiple moments of soapbox climbing.

And why am I risking life and paw to climb on my battered soapbox today?  It’s simple, really.  Today I’ll be discussing the upcoming trade deadline and what Sandy Alderson should do as July 31 approaches.  But before I do that, I’d like to give you a little history lesson.

In 2004, the Mets came out of the All-Star Break in the middle of the playoff race, but then went into a sudden tailspin.  General manager Jim Duquette insisted the team was still in playoff contention, but instead of looking for help from within the organization, he acquired two veteran starting pitchers in Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano.  The key player from within the organization that was dealt away turned out to be Scott Kazmir, who went on to lead the Tampa Bay Rays to their first World Series appearance in 2008.  The other players involved were Ty Wigginton and Jose Bautista, who are both still active and quite productive at the major league level.  Needless to say, Benson and Zambrano did not lead the Mets to October glory in 2004.  In fact, they’re not leading anyone right now as both pitchers are out of baseball.

Let’s now fast forward to this season.  In 2012, the Mets went into the All-Star Break with a 46-40 record, half a game behind the Atlanta Braves for the second wild card spot.  Since returning from their midsummer hiatus, the current Mets have made the 2004 team look good in comparison, winning once in a dozen attempts.  Their 1-11 record is worse than the 2-9 record they posted two years ago, when they also came out of the break in the thick of the wild card race.  Then, it was a West Coast swing that put the kibosh on their postseason aspirations.  This time, they didn’t even wait to go out west to start their annual whimper to the finish line.

Before entering this seemingly fatal stretch of games, current general manager Sandy Alderson insisted the Mets were going to be buyers at the trade deadline.  But much has changed over the past two weeks.  Should the Mets pull a Duquette and be buyers before July 31 or should they sell off whatever valuable pieces they have, essentially raising the white flag on the 2012 season?  I have the perfect solution for our GM, who has been quite mum on the topic since the All-Star Break.

Sandy Alderson should just come out already and announce that he is buy-curious.

Don't let the gruff exterior fool you.  Beneath that scowl is one buy-curious general manager.

It’s no secret that Alderson has been talking to some potential partners as the deadline approaches.  These partners might have what Sandy is looking for, while others are probably asking for Sandy to give up too much in return.  Some of these other partners might also be hanging on the playoff fence, making them buy-curious as well.  No one’s telling Sandy to meet up with these fellow buy-curious general managers, but perhaps they have something to offer that the Mets could use to assist them in the future, without having to give up the farm.

The Mets are not the Miami Marlins, who this year basically jumped up and down on the couch to announce they were going to be more than just buy-curious.  They just came out and proclaimed loud and proud that they were buy, buy, buy.  Unfortunately, everyone doesn’t love the Marlins anymore and it’s more like bye, bye, bye these days in South Beach, with the Marlins selling off everything but their autographed Rue McClanahan poster.  (But I’m still watching eBay daily hoping they decide to list it.)

Sandy Alderson has done a good job putting this Mets team together with the chips he’s been given.  The present might be full of dark clouds, but the future is looking bright.  Matt Harvey will not become this trade deadline’s Scott Kazmir.  Instead of packing his bags to head for another organization, Harvey is packing his bags for Arizona, where he will be making his major league debut tonight against the Diamondbacks.  The only names being tossed around at this year’s trade deadline are Scott Hairston and Tim Byrdak, neither of whom have the potential to become this year’s Ty Wigginton and Jose Bautista.

The Mets are seven games behind the Braves for the final wild card spot.  They were closer to the wild card leader in 2004 when Duquette became Trader Jim.  They’re still close enough that they don’t have to follow the example learned by those who attend the Miami Marlins School of Business.  But they’re not close enough where they have to trade off their future to acquire a player who may or may not get them over the top in the present.

For now, being buy-curious might be the safe way for Sandy Alderson to operate.  There’s no shame in making it public.  And he’s surely not the only buy-curious general manager out there.  In fact, if a good trade that will help the Mets in 2013 and beyond pops up, don’t be surprised if Sandy’s trade partner is also buy-curious.  That’s how Frank Cashen operated in the ‘80s (think Neil Allen and friends for Keith Hernandez, Lee Mazzilli for Ron Darling and Walt Terrell (who was traded for Howard Johnson), or Ed Hearn, Rick Anderson and Mauro Gozzo for David Cone), and he was the most buy-curious general manager of them all.

So Sandy, if you’re reading this, you’ve done a fine job so far.  Don’t mess things up by doing something the Mets might regret.  Be buy-curious if you feel it’s best for you and the team’s future.  Just don’t force things to happen.  It didn’t work for Dan Duquette and it didn’t work for those fried fish in Florida.  Let’s make it work this time around, okay?

Now let me get off this soapbox before it collapses faster than the Phillies’ NL East dynasty.  I should probably be a little buy-curious myself about a new soapbox before the Mets give me another reason to hop back onto it.

July 31 Has Provided Many Infamous Days In Mets History

Before 1986, the trade deadline used to be June 15, a date Mets fans most associated with the Midnight Massacre in 1977 and the acquisition of Keith Hernandez in 1983. Over the past 25 years, teams have been allowed to make non-waiver trades up to the July 31 deadline.

This year, there have been a frenzy of deals in the last days and hours before the non-waiver trade deadline. Carlos Beltran was traded by the Mets to the Giants. Kosuke Fukudome was dealt to the Indians by the Cubs. Hunter Pence, born and raised in Texas, was shipped off by the Astros to the one place in America that's the polar opposite to the politeness of the Lone Star State, Philadelphia. Michael Bourn became a Brave, Derrek Lee became a Pirate and Ubaldo Jimenez pitched one inning for the Rockies, was traded to Cleveland during his start, and was spared getting his final loss as a Rockie while being a member of the Indians when Colorado rallied to defeat the Padres.

Got that? Those were only a few of the dozens of trades made throughout major league baseball over the past few days. Even Joey Beartran considered trading away his colleague (yours truly) to a different Mets blog for Rich Harden and a toasted bagel with cream cheese, but that trade was pulled back once Joey realized that Harden would probably get injured picking up that bagel.

The Mets haven't been strangers to the last-minute deal since the trade deadline was pushed back to July 31. In fact, the team has made 13 deals on July 31 in the last 25 years. Unfortunately, most of the 13 have proven to be unlucky for the Mets. Let's review some of these trades (with thanks to Ultimate Mets Database for providing the trade details).

On July 31, 1989, the Mets engineered two deals, neither of which worked in the long run. They traded Rick Aguilera, David West, Kevin Tapani, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage to the Minnesota Twins for former Cy Young Award winner and Long Island native Frank Viola.

Those shades can't hide you, Frank Viola. We know you weren't worth Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani.

Although Viola went on to win 20 games for the Mets in 1990, becoming the last Met pitcher to accomplish that feat, his stay in New York was short. Viola finished 38-32 in 2½ seasons with the Mets. In his final year in New York (1991), Viola struggled, going 13-15 and leading the major leagues in hits allowed (259). He also lost the ability to strike out batters, finishing the season with 132 strikeouts, after registering at least 182 whiffs in each of his previous five seasons.

Meanwhile, two of the players he was traded for flourished in Minnesota. Kevin Tapani won 75 games in six seasons as a Twin, finishing fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1990 and seventh in the Cy Young Award balloting in 1991 when he finished 16-9 with a 2.99 ERA. Rick Aguilera was turned into the Twins' closer and became the franchise's all-time saves leader. (His 254 saves have since been tied by Joe Nathan.) Aguilera's 42 saves in 1991 tied Jeff Reardon's club record and was one of the main reasons why the Twins went from worst to first, as they won the World Series that year over the Atlanta Braves. The 1991 season also marked the first of three consecutive years that Aggie was selected to the American League All-Star team. Aguilera's 318 career saves (of which only seven came as a Met) rank 15th on the all-time saves list.

On the same day the Mets traded away the winning pitcher in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, they also dealt the man who hit the little roller up along first that enabled Aguilera to be credited with the win, as fan-favorite Mookie Wilson was sent to Toronto for Jeff Musselman.

This picture is wrong, just wrong.

Mookie would end up helping the Blue Jays win the 1989 American League East division title, even garnering consideration for the 1989 AL MVP award. Jeff Musselman, on the other hand, didn't do quite as well with his new team. After a decent end to the 1989 season (3-2, 3.08 ERA for the Mets), Musselman was downright atrocious in 1990, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA for a Mets team that won 91 games. Although he was only 27 years old in 1990, Musselman never pitched again in the major leagues following that awful season.

Ten years to the day after the trade for Frank Viola and the trading of Mookie Wilson, the Mets conducted another ill-fated deal, sending Jason Isringhausen (and Greg McMichael) to the Oakland Athletics. In return, the Mets received A's closer Billy Taylor, who was 37 at the time. After coming to the Mets, Taylor showed his age, appearing in 18 games for New York and registering an ungodly 8.10 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. In only 13.1 innings, he allowed 29 baserunners (20 hits, 9 walks) and opponents hit .345 against him.

Meanwhile, Jason Isringhausen became one of the best closers in baseball over the next decade. He pitched two years in Oakland, saving 33 games (and making the All-Star team) in 2000 and 34 games in 2001. He then signed a free-agent contract with the St. Louis Cardinals following the 2001 season and became the all-time saves leader of that storied franchise, surpassing such greats as former all-time saves leader Lee Smith and Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter.

Isringhausen is now back with the Mets, becoming the de facto closer after the trade of Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers. Interestingly enough, Izzy's next save will be the seventh of his Mets career (he saved one game in his first stint as a Met), which will tie him for 31st on the Mets' all-time saves list. Who will he tie? None other than Rick Aguilera, the other player the Mets traded away on a July 31st who became his new team's all-time saves leader.

At least we got Izzy back, even if it was a decade too late.

We could stop here, ending this piece with the symmetry of the Aguilera and Isringhausen deals, but there's one more July 31 non-waiver trade deadline deal we have to discuss. It happened only five years ago, but the Mets are still paying for it today. In this case, they're paying for it quite literally.

On July 31, 2006, the Mets traded rightfielder Xavier Nady to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Roberto Hernandez and some guy you might have heard of. His name is Oliver Perez.

At the time of the deal, which was only made because Duaner Sanchez had a case of the midnight munchies and was injured in a taxicab accident on his way to sate his grumbling tummy, Nady appeared to be on his way to his finest season in the major leagues. He had 30 extra-base hits (15 doubles, one triple and 14 home runs) and had driven in 40 runs. All of those numbers were compiled in only 75 games and 265 at-bats with the Mets. To put this into perspective, two years earlier, a Mets player was called up from the minor leagues in July and also picked up exactly 14 and 40 RBI, doing so in 263 at-bats, or two less than Xavier Nady needed to achieve the same statistics in 2006. That player was David Wright.

Over the next two full seasons after the trade, Nady blossomed, hitting .278 with 20 HR and 72 RBI in 2007 for Pittsburgh. He followed that up with an All-Star-caliber year in 2008, splitting his year between the Pirates and Yankees, and hitting .305 with 37 doubles, 25 HR and 97 RBI, all of which were career-highs. Meanwhile, while Nady was having excellent years in 2007 and 2008, the Mets were choking away their seasons, employing rightfielders Shawn Green (.291, 10 HR, 46 RBI) in 2007 and Ryan Church (.276, 12 HR, 49 RBI) to replace Xavier Nady. Green and Church combined to produce 22 HR and 95 RBI over those two seasons, numbers that were surpassed by Nady in 2008 alone.

As for the pitchers the Mets received in the Nady trade, Roberto Hernandez pitched in only 22 games for the Mets before signing a free-agent contract with the Cleveland Indians following the 2006 season, while Oliver Perez...ah, you know the rest.

Because Duaner Sanchez wanted the plate on the right, we got a plateful of Ollie.

Sure, the Mets made some decent deals on July 31, like the trade that brought them Shawon Dunston in 1999, who engineered one of the most important at-bats in franchise history, leading off the bottom of the 15th inning in Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS with a base hit, setting up the inning that ended with Robin Ventura's Grand Slam Single.

That same day, they also traded for Darryl Hamilton, whose biggest moment as a Met came in Game 2 of the 2000 NLDS against the Giants, when he ripped a two-out double in the 10th inning and eventually scored the winning run on Jay Payton's single.

You know what? Come to think of it, if the only good trades the Mets have made on July 31 have involved players who were only known for one at-bat with the team, then maybe the Mets shouldn't make last-minute trades at the non-waiver trade deadline. Let other teams make moves for the Hunter Pences, Ubaldo Jimenezes and Michael Bourns of the world. We'll make do with what we have. We don't need any more Billy Taylors, Jeff Musselmans or that Other Pitcher whose name escapes me at the moment.

17 Games To Decide The Season

In 2007, the New York Mets were sitting pretty atop the National League East, owners of a seven game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies with 17 games to play. They failed to make the playoffs.

The following year, they held a 3½ game lead in the division when the season was down to its final 17 games. Once again, the Mets did not advance to the postseason.

Everything changed for the Mets in 2007 and 2008 during those two 17-game stretches. Hopes were dashed as seasons crashed. Now the Mets are heading into another critical 17-game stretch. Although this one won't decide the outcome of an individual season, it might end up determining the direction of the entire franchise for years to come.

Beginning with tonight's second-half opener against the Phillies, the Mets play 17 games between now and July 31, the date of the trade deadline. The Mets have already traded away closer Francisco Rodriguez and have numerous teams interested in rightfielder Carlos Beltran.

Sandy Alderson has publicly stated that whether or not the Mets trade Beltran by July 31 rests on the performance of the team between tonight and the trade deadline. Should the team do well and inch closer to the Braves in the race for the wild card, Beltran might remain with the Mets past July 31. Should the team falter over the next two and a half weeks...well...you get the picture.

The Mets have already failed on two occasions when all they needed to do was play decently over a do-or-die 17-game stretch. Had the Mets gone 6-11 over the last 17 games of the 2007 season, they would have won the division title. Instead, they went 4-13 and found their way into the darkest pages of the history books. If they had only gone 8-9 over their final 17 games in '08, Milwaukee would have come to Shea Stadium for a one-game playoff to determine the NL Wild Card. Instead, the Mets went 7-10 and we Shea'd Goodbye earlier than we would have liked.

Failure over the next 17 games won't end the season. The Mets will still be playing baseball over the next two months. But losing over the next 2½ weeks would be tantamount to raising the proverbial white flag. If the Mets don't do well, Carlos Beltran will be traded for a prospect who may or may not be a part of the Mets' future, Jose Reyes might entertain thoughts of packing his bags once the season ends, and fans will come to Citi Field in August and September dressed as empty seats.

The Mets haven't had a winning season since they moved to Citi Field. They haven't won when the games have mattered the most for longer than that. Isn't it time for the Mets to scratch that 17-game itch?