The Best On The Worst: Craig Swan

Hard-luck pitchers.  The majors have seen many of them in recent years.  Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners led all of baseball in 2010 with a 2.27 ERA.  He also paced the American League in innings pitched and allowed the fewest hits per nine innings.  His won-loss record for the year was a rather mediocre 13-12.  Similarly, in Matt Harvey's final 22 starts in 2013, he pitched to a 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and had an astounding 159 strikeouts to only 22 walks.  Harvey won just five of those 22 starts and the Mets' record in those appearances was 9-13.

Matt Harvey has only been in the big leagues for a year and a half, so he should have plenty of opportunities to become a big winner.  Meanwhile, at age 27, Felix Hernandez has already won 110 games and is 24 games over .500 for his career.

Decades before Harvey and Hernandez had their hard-luck seasons, there was a pitcher who spent a dozen seasons in Flushing making a career out of getting tough losses and no-decisions despite pitching better than most of his fellow moundsmen.  In fact, he may just be the most unfortunate pitcher in Mets history.

Craig Swan was one of the unluckiest pitchers in Mets history.

Craig Steven Swan was selected by the Mets in the third round of the 1972 June amateur draft - the same round that produced future Hall of Famers Dennis Eckersley and Gary Carter.  Swan pitched for four years at Arizona State University, winning the national championship in his freshman year in 1969 and allowing just one run in 18 innings as a senior for the Sun Devils in the 1972 College World Series.  With all his college experience, Swan needed very little minor league seasoning before making his debut with the Mets in 1973.  But the Mets of the mid-1970s had Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack making 100-plus starts per season, leaving very few starts for a young pitcher like Swan, even though he dominated minor league hitters in 1972 and 1973 (14-8, 2.29 ERA in 28 starts).  Because of the Mets' strong rotation, Swan was only afforded 12 starts at the big league level between 1973 and 1975, winning just twice and posting a 5.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.  Finally, in 1976, as the country was celebrating its bicentennial, Craig Swan had a different reason to celebrate.  He had finally earned his first extended stay in the big leagues.

The 1976 Mets finished the year with an 86-76 record, which at the time represented the second-highest win total in franchise history.  The big three of Seaver, Koosman and Matlack combined to win 52 games for the Mets.  Meanwhile, Craig Swan made 22 starts in his first full season with New York.  He got off to a quick start, notching his first-ever complete game shutout against the Atlanta Braves on April 28, adding a career-high 11 strikeouts to his masterpiece.  Swan won his next start as well, allowing just two runs to the defending World Series champion Cincinnati Reds.  But Swan's next four starts were not nearly as graceful, and by early June, his ERA had risen to 5.44.  That's when Swan turned his season around and perhaps saved his career.

In a seven-start stretch from June 7 to July 9, Swan was practically untouchable, posting a 1.59 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and holding opposing hitters to a .193 batting average.  But an elbow injury kept Swan out of action for the entire month of August, putting a damper on the 25-year-old's first full season.  Swan returned in early September and allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts.  However, despite the strong September efforts, Swan was only able to win one of those five starts.  It was a trend that haunted him for the rest of his career.

After not pitching well in limited action from 1973 to 1975, Swan broke through in 1976, finishing the year with a 3.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  But not even a solid season in those departments could prevent Swan from posting a low victory total.  Swan won just six games in 1976, as the Mets managed to score three runs or less in half of his 22 starts.

It wasn't much better for Swan or the team in 1977.  Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman were traded as part of the infamous "Midnight Massacre" on June 15, leaving the team without its best pitcher and greatest power threat.  Swan made 24 starts in 1977, making him one of seven pitchers on the Mets to start at least ten games.  Although the right-hander finished the year just one win off the club lead (Nino Espinosa led the team with ten victories), he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.23 and 1.43, respectively.  After five seasons in the major leagues, Swan was no longer part of a contending team, as the Mets ended the 1977 campaign in last place with a 64-98 record.  His team may have waved goodbye to its best days, but Swan was about to say hello to a tremendous five-year stretch, a period in which he became one of the most unlikely dependable pitchers in the National League. 

The 1978 season began with Tom Seaver in Cincinnati and Jon Matlack in Texas.  Jerry Koosman was still a Met, but he was coming off an 8-20 season (the first 20-loss campaign for a Mets pitcher since 1965) and was quite unhappy about the direction of the team.  After another terrible year on the mound, one in which he lost 15 of 18 decisions, Koosman was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Jesse Orosco.  The pitching staff of Seaver, Koosman and Matlack - the rotation that kept Swan out of a regular spot until 1976 - was no more.  And Swan took full advantage of being the new go-to guy on the staff.

Despite nagging injuries that kept him out of action for two-week spells in June and September, Swan managed to make 28 starts for the Mets in 1978.  Swan was brilliant in the first half of the season.  He won his first start of the season by pitching a complete-game shutout against the Cubs (although hardly anyone can claim to have witnessed Swan's gem in person, as the announced attendance at Shea Stadium that day was only 3,751).  Swan continued to pitch beautifully throughout the first half of the season.  Through games of July 15, Swan had a 2.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and had limited opposing batters to a .221 batting average and .281 on-base percentage.  In addition, Swan allowed two runs or less in 11 of his first 16 starts.  Unfortunately, by July 15, Swan was still searching for his second victory of the season.  As incredible as it may seem, despite allowing just 32 earned runs in 15 starts following his shutout in his first start, Swan did not win any of those 15 games, as he was saddled with five losses and ten no-decisions.

Part of the reason why Swan appeared to be allergic to victories was his bullpen.  During a six-start stretch from April 15 to May 12, Swan left three games with the Mets in front.  The bullpen coughed up the lead all three times.  Then on July 15, Swan was removed the game with Mets holding a three-run lead.  But the relief corps of Paul Siebert, Dale Murray and Skip Lockwood combined to allow six runs over the next two innings in a game the Mets lost the Reds, 7-5.

The bullpen wasn't the only reason for Swan's low win total.  The offense also failed to show up when Swan was on the mound.    The Mets were shut out three times in Swan's first 16 starts and scored three runs or less in eight others.  As a result, half of Swan's first 16 starts resulted in one-run games.  And of course, with an offense that couldn't extend leads and a bullpen that couldn't hold them, the Mets were unable to give Swan the "W" in the 15 starts following his first-start shutout.  But after July 15, things finally started going right for the Mets whenever Swan took the hill.

From July 19 to August 30, Swan was a perfect 7-0 with just two no-decisions.  The offense clicked for Swan, scoring eight runs or more in four of those nine starts, and the bullpen was more efficient, holding opponents scoreless in six of the nine contests.  Swan continued to keep opposing batters off the bases (.287 OBP) and actually had a lower ERA during the nine-start stretch (2.33) than he had during his 15-start winless streak.  Swan bookended his season-opening victory with a win in his final start, a 3-1 gem over the St. Louis Cardinals in which he allowed one run on just three hits in seven innings.  It was the sixth time Swan allowed three hits or less in 1978 and the 12th time he gave up no more than one earned run.

Swan finished the year with a league-leading 2.43 ERA, making him just the second Met ever to lead the league in that category (Tom Seaver won ERA titles in 1970, 1971 and 1973).  Swan also finished second in the league with a 1.07 WHIP and surpassed 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career.  But of course, his inability to secure a win for three months kept his record at 9-6, one of the lowest win totals for an ERA champion in major league history.  Swan's unluckiness was a team-wide problem, as the Mets finished in last place in the NL East for a second straight season in 1978 with a 66-96 record.

As good as Swan's 1978 season was, his 1979 campaign may have been his best.  It certainly was the weirdest season for a Mets pitcher when compared to his fellow starters.

 In 1979, if you didn't see Craig Swan pitch at Shea Stadium, you probably didn't go home with a win.

The 1979 Mets were a team in complete disarray.  They bumbled, fumbled and stumbled their way to a league-worst 63-99 record, winning their last six games to avoid their first 100-loss season since 1967.  It was also the first time since 1967 that the team was outscored by 100 or more runs, as the '79 squad allowed 706 runs while scoring just 593 times.  The Mets used 15 different starting pitchers in 1979, which was the highest number of starters used by the squad since they needed 20 in - you guessed it - 1967.  But despite being on the team that was the laughingstock of the league, Craig Swan continued to be one of the NL's most consistent pitchers, even when his teammates were not.

Swan finished the 1979 season by setting new career highs in just about every pitching category.  Among his new highs were starts (35), innings pitched (251⅓), complete games (10), shutouts (3) and strikeouts (145).  Those career-high numbers placed Swan in the league's top ten in all five categories.  In addition, Swan's first full season of good health saw him finish in the league's top ten in WHIP (1.19; 8th in the NL) and K/BB ratio (2.54; 4th), as well as completing the year with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage (no errors in 46 chances).  And on a team level, Swan's 251⅓ innings made him just the fifth Mets pitcher to surpass 250 innings pitched in a single season, joining Jack Fisher (1965), Tom Seaver (1967-73, 1975-76), Jerry Koosman (1968, 1973-74) and Jon Matlack (1974, 1976).

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Swan's 1979 campaign was not what he did on the mound, but what he did compared to what his fellow moundsmen did.  Swan won 14 games in 1979.  No other Mets pitcher won more than six.  Swan pitched ten complete games.  No one else had more than one.  Swan pitched three shutouts in '79.  The rest of the team combined to pitch two.  As much as the 1979 Mets stunk, they couldn't even draw flies to Shea Stadium, let alone fans, as only 788,905 fans came to Flushing to watch the team play.  Those die-hards didn't see many wins that year, but at least they knew they had their best chance to leave Shea Stadium in a victorious mood whenever Craig Swan was on the mound.

As the Mets entered a new decade in 1980, the team embarked on a new philosophy.  Gone was the "Grant's Tomb" version of the Mets, as new owners Fred Wilpon and Nelson Doubleday vowed to do whatever it took to make the Mets competitive again.  The new owners also brought in general manager Frank Cashen, who promised that the team would be turned around within five years.  One of Cashen's first moves as the Mets' new GM was to sign Craig Swan for five years and $3 million, which at the time was the most lucrative deal for a pitcher in franchise history.

Swan thanked the team by remaining one of the toughest pitchers to score against.  In his first 12 starts in 1980, Swan recorded a 2.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, limiting opposing hitters to a .203 batting average and an almost unheard-of .244 on-base percentage.  During the last seven starts of his two-month streak of excellence, Swan authored four complete-game victories, including a ten-inning gem won on a walk-off grand slam by Mike Jorgensen on June 11.

But Swan struggled over his next nine starts, going 0-5 with a 6.28 ERA.  A sore right shoulder was the original reason given for Swan's struggles, which landed him on the disabled list for a month after a loss to the Braves on July 16.  When Swan returned to the team on August 16, he continued to pitch in pain and was forced to end his season prematurely two starts later as the result of a torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder.  The Mets were flirting with the .500 mark and the division lead when Swan first went on the disabled list in mid-July.  They were an NL-worst 24-52 after July 17, never recovering from the loss of their ace pitcher, who finished the year winning just five of his 21 starts.

The injury bug afflicted Swan once again in 1981, as a rib fracture (caused on a throw by his own catcher, Ron Hodges) and shoulder discomfort caused him to miss most of the season.  Swan made only three starts and two relief appearances in the strike-shortened '81 campaign and did not pick up a win.  However, when Swan was able to pitch, he was vintage Swan, allowing only 11 base runners in 13⅔ innings and posting a 3.29 ERA.  Through the first two years of his team-record contract, Swan had given the team just five victories, making it seem like the deal was a bust.  But a return to form in 1982 brought relief to Swan and the front office.  The only problem was that the team's new manager insisted on using all of his starters in relief.

After nearly five seasons at the helm of a struggling Mets team, Joe Torre was replaced by new manager George Bamberger prior to the start of the 1982 season.  Bamberger already had a strong relationship with the Mets' general manager, as he was the pitching coach in Baltimore during Cashen's tenure as the Orioles' general manager in the 1960s and 1970s.  Naturally, Bamberger's strength would help mold the Mets' staff into a rotation full of solid starters, which included the injury-prone Craig Swan.  At least, that's what was supposed to happen.

The team started the year well under Bamberger.  As late as June 20, the Mets were just three games out of first place with a 34-30 record.  But Bamberger was using all of his starters in relief, sometimes because of injuries and at other times because of poor performances as starting pitchers.  As a result, no pitcher made more than 24 starts for the Mets in 1982 and seven pitchers made at least ten starts.  All seven of those starters made at least eight relief appearances for the team and all but one of them (Randy Jones) recorded at least one save.  But despite the disarray in the rotation and bullpen, Craig Swan managed to keep it together - at least while he was on the mound.

Swan began the season by making two starts before he was moved to the bullpen for 15 consecutive relief appearances.  Swan was brilliant out of the pen, going 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA and holding batters to an incredible .180/.209/.288 slash line.  As a result of his dominance out of the pen, Swan was moved back into the starting rotation in early June.  But Swan struggled in his return to the starting rotation.  Not helping his case, Swan got into an altercation with his manager in late June that stemmed from the team's travel arrangements - the team refused to switch from commercial flights to chartered flights, even after a long flight delay.  Swan and Bamberger had to separated during the shoving match, causing an upset Bamberger to say: "In my mind, he was out of line.  There were 30 or 40 people on that plane who didn't complain.  If he wants a charter, let him charter it himself."

Clearly, the altercation left Swan shaken, as he lost his next two starts after the scuffle, allowing a total of 12 runs in 9⅓ innings.  But in his first start in July, Swan was back to his usual self, and almost accomplished something that no Mets pitcher had ever done before.

On July 2, Swan took the mound against the Phillies, a team that had shelled him for seven runs and nine hits in just 2⅓ innings in his previous start.  But Swan was not going to allow Philadelphia's veteran hitters repeat the feat a second time.  Swan mowed down the potent Phillies lineup, retiring 17 batters without allowing a hit.  But Pete Rose broke up the no-hitter with two out in the sixth inning on a clean single to right.

Swan was cognizant of what was going on throughout his entire effort, which he admitted after the game.  But he was not too disappointed that he didn't notch the team's first no-hitter.  Rather, he was encouraged because his effort indicated that he was back to his usual form after years of pitching through injuries and spending extended periods of time on the disabled list.


 

"I was aware of it.  The scoreboard was there telling me every time I turned around.  But I was not pitching any differently because of it. ... They told me it would be midseason before I would reach my form.  That's been true.  I wanted to throw a little harder each time out.  Now, the rehabilitation is over."

 


Beginning with his near no-hitter, Swan finished the year by winning six of his last ten decisions, earning his first major league save along the way.  But Swan was the only pitcher who won regularly during the season's final three months, as the Mets went 27-58 after Swan's victory over the Phillies on July 2.

For the second time in four seasons, Swan was the only pitcher on the Mets to reach double digits in victories.  Swan led the team's main core of starters in ERA (3.35) and WHIP (1.21), while issuing the fewest walks (37).  His return to prominence almost earned him the Comeback Player of the Year Award, as he finished second to Joe Morgan of the San Francisco Giants.  But that was the last good season Swan would have for New York, as Swan would once again flip-flop between the starting rotation and the bullpen in 1983.  This time, however, he faltered in both roles, finishing the year with a 2-8 record and an un-Swan-like 5.51 ERA.  The Mets then protected Swan in the free-agent compensation pool during the '83-'84 off-season instead of Tom Seaver, who had returned to the team in 1983.  Seaver became a member of the Chicago White Sox in 1984 and won his 300th game in the majors a year later.  By that time, Swan was already out of baseball, as he made just ten relief appearances (no starts) for the Mets in 1984 before he was released in early May.  Swan then signed with the California Angels but only pitched five innings for the Halos.  His last game in the majors came just six days after he signed with the Angels.

The oft-injured Swan is now helping others from getting hurt, as he is currently a practicing physical therapist specializing in rolfing, a technique named after its creator, Dr. Ida Rolf.  Rolfing attempts to  rid the body of pain through alignment and lengthening the tissues that cover the body's muscles.

Craig Swan pitched twelve seasons in the majors, with all but two of big league appearances coming as a member of the New York Mets.  His final record with the Mets (59-71, 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) suggests that he was just average at best, but he was much better than average for a five-year stretch from 1978 to 1982.  He just didn't have the wins to show for it.  Then again, neither did the team.

From '78 to '82, Swan was the owner of a 3.12 ERA and 1.147 WHIP.  He also held opposing hitters to a .288 on-base percentage.  Swan was one of only seven National League pitchers to post an ERA under 3.15 during those five seasons (minimum 700 innings pitched).  He was also one of just three NL hurlers to have a sub-1.15 WHIP from 1978 to 1982, as well as one of three to keep opposing hitters below a .290 on-base percentage.  The other two pitchers in both categories were Hall of Famers Steve Carlton and Don Sutton.  Of the seven pitchers who kept their earned run averages under 3.15, all but Swan won at least 56 games during the five seasons.  Similarly, the other two pitchers who had a WHIP under 1.15 and OBP under .290 both won at least 64 games from 1978 to 1982.  Swan could only manage a 39-37 record.

It's true that Craig Swan didn't win many games.  But he did have a winning record during his best five seasons, a time in which the Mets had a combined record of 302-449.  Felix Hernandez has been a great pitcher for the Mariners since making his major league debut in 2005.  But his greatness has produced just one season of more than 14 victories.  Similarly, Matt Harvey has only won 12 games in 36 big league starts despite a stellar 2.39 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and more than one strikeout per inning.

If Hernandez and Harvey ever get frustrated with their lack of wins, they have a former Met they can contact who can relate to their pain.  After all, Craig Swan knows what it's like to be the best pitcher on some of the worst Mets teams.  

Craig Swan couldn't help himself to more wins, but now he's helping others feel like winners.

(Photo by Richard Harbus/NY Daily News)

Note:  The Best On The Worst is a thirteen-part weekly series spotlighting the greatest Mets players who just happened to play on some not-so-great Mets teams.  For previous installments, please click on the players' names below:

January 6, 2014: Todd Hundley 
January 13, 2014: Al Jackson
January 20, 2014: Lee Mazzilli
January 27, 2014: Steve Trachsel
February 3, 2014: Rico Brogna
February 10, 2014: Skip Lockwood 
February 17, 2014: Ron Hunt
  

Matt Harvey Pitches With The Grace of a Swan

You've heard it coming at you from every angle and every media outlet.  Matt Harvey is a bloody good pitcher.  Since coming into the league less than 11 months ago, Harvey been the darling of the Mets' pitching staff.  In 25 starts, Harvey has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.  He has also struck out 185 batters in 163⅓ innings, while holding the opposition to a measly .196 batting average.  Unfortunately, that success on the mound has not translated to victories, as Harvey has only earned nine wins in those 25 starts.

Harvey's inability to earn a "W" is reminiscent of another ace who pitched for the Mets during a time when the team was struggling to win ballgames.  In fact, other than the strikeouts, Matt Harvey's career numbers so far are quite similar to the numbers posted by one Craig Steven Swan in 1978.

One of the best pitchers in Mets history with some of the worst luck.

Craig Swan was a second round draft pick out of Arizona State University in 1972 and made his major league debut with the Mets during their "Ya Gotta Believe" stretch run in 1973.  Swan pitched briefly for the Mets from 1973 to 1975 before getting his first extended look as a starter in 1976.  Unfortunately for Swan, by the time he was ready to make his mark in the rotation, the team was making a beeline for the bottom of the NL East standings.

Swan got off to a poor start in 1977, going 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA through late May.  But beginning with his start on May 31, Swan pitched beautifully on a team that was about to trade its best pitcher (Tom Seaver).  In 14 appearances (13 starts) from May 31 to August 15, Swan was 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA.  The Mets were 9-5 in those 14 appearances.  Meanwhile, they were 24-34 in all other games during Swan's graceful stretch.

That was enough to make Swan the ace of the staff in 1978, especially with Jerry Koosman coming off a lackluster 8-20 campaign in 1977.  And what a year it was for Swan in '78.  He led the league with a 2.43 ERA and was runner-up in WHIP (1.071) and fewest hits per nine innings (7.119).  Opposing batters hit .219 against Swan in 1978, and were only able to reach base against him at a .275 clip.

Surely, Swan must have contended for the Cy Young Award, right?  Not exactly.  In fact, he didn't even receive a single vote.  So why was he overlooked by the voting panel?  Perhaps it had something to do with the fact that he only won nine of his 28 starts.

After allowing a season-high six earned runs to the Phillies on May 7, causing his ERA to "balloon" to 3.02, Swan was brilliant for the rest of the season.  The right-hander went 8-4 with a 2.28 ERA over his last 23 games (22 starts), but the team lost seven of his 11 no-decisions during that time.

Although Swan allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 28 starts in 1978, the Mets lost ten of those 19 games.  Furthermore, Swan did not allow any earned runs in five of his starts, but of course, the Mets somehow found a way to lose three of those contests.  Unlike Matt Harvey, Craig Swan was not a strikeout pitcher, but he did reach double digits in strikeouts in two games in 1978.  Naturally, the Mets lost both of those games.

Matt Harvey's reaction says it all.  Here comes another no-decision.

Matt Harvey should know a thing or two about frustrating no-decisions.  Through 25 career starts, Harvey has not received a decision ten times.  That includes his current stretch in which he's received a no-decision in eight of his last 11 starts, despite posting a 2.64 ERA and holding the opposition to a .260 on-base percentage over that period.  And like Swan before him, the Mets have lost six of those 11 starts.  For his career, Harvey has allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 25 starts.  Not unexpectedly, the Mets have lost nine of those starts.

Let's just stop right now and give you the comparison I've been leading up to.  Here are Craig Swan's 1978 numbers followed by Matt Harvey's career numbers through his first 25 starts.

• Craig Swan: 28 starts, 9-6 record, 2.43 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, Mets won 12 of his starts
• Matt Harvey: 25 starts, 9-6 record, 2.37 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, Mets won 12 of his starts

Craig Swan was a very good pitcher on some bad Mets teams.  When he played his last game for the Mets, his 59 wins were fourth-most in franchise history behind Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack.  (Swan is now tied for 12th with Rick Reed.)

Matt Harvey has a long way to go to reach the pitching heights scaled by Seaver, Koosman and Matlack.  But right now, his career numbers (other than strikeouts) are looking more like Craig Swan's 1978 season than anything else.  Like Swan before him, Harvey has been the victim of a poor offense, where putting up a bunch of zeroes on the scoreboard still doesn't guarantee a victory.

Craig Swan pitched a lot better than his numbers show.  So has Matt Harvey.  But for now, Harvey still has a long way to go to earn those comparisons to Seaver, especially in the win column.  Until the offense starts producing for him, Harvey will just have to settle for being known as a hard-luck pitcher - a hard-luck pitcher who pitches with the grace of a Swan.
  

Hoping The 2013 Mets Don't Turn Into The 1974 Mets

In 1973, the Mets won the National League pennant despite a mediocre 82-79 record.  They did so with a light-hitting catcher in Jerry Grote (.256, 1 HR, 32 RBI), a first baseman (John Milner) who led the team in home runs but left a lot to be desired in the batting average department (.239, 23 HR, 72 RBI) and a 29-year-old with multiple All-Star Game appearances (Rusty Staub) who led the team in doubles, RBIs and on-base percentage.  They also played musical chairs in the outfield, with only one player (Staub) collecting more than 400 at-bats.

On the pitching side of things, the Mets had that year's Cy Young Award winner on their starting staff (Tom Seaver) who led the league in strikeouts and complete games.  Unfortunately, they also had a bullpen that left a lot to be desired, as closer Tug McGraw's ERA was near 4.00 (a high number for that era) and six other relievers had ERAs north of 6.00.

The team did not do much to improve their roster that off-season, despite obvious flaws with the offense and bullpen.  As a result, the 1974 Mets faded miserably, finishing the year with a 71-91 record - their first losing mark since 1968 and their first 90-loss campaign since Tom Seaver's rookie season one year earlier.

Although the Mets recovered to post two winning seasons in 1975 and 1976, the cracks were clearly visible on a team that had won two pennants and one World Series championship over a five-year stretch.  The death of Joan Whitney Payson and the rise of M. Donald Grant to power ushered in a dark era in Mets baseball that lasted for almost a decade.

Why is this important now in 2012?  Because if the Mets aren't careful, history could repeat itself in 2013.

Like their 1973 counterparts (minus the pennant, of course), the 2012 Mets employed a light-hitting catcher (Josh Thole), a first baseman who led the team in homers but had a low batting average (Ike Davis) and a 29-year-old All-Star who paced the team in a number of the major offensive categories (David Wright).  In the outfield, only one player (Lucas Duda) reached the 400 at-bat plateau.  Similarly, the 2012 Mets also produced the Cy Young Award winner who led the league in strikeouts and complete games (R.A. Dickey) and had a bullpen that left a lot to be desired (you name him, he probably sucked).

Let's look at the 1973 and 2012 Mets, position by position, to see the eerie similarities in their production:


Catcher
Jerry Grote: .256, 1 HR, 32 RBI, .294 OBP
Josh Thole: .234, 1 HR, 21 RBI, .290 OBP

First Base
John Milner: .239, 23 HR, 72 RBI, team leader in strikeouts
Ike Davis: .227, 32 HR, 90 RBI, team leader in strikeouts

Second Base
Felix Millan: .290, 3 HR, 37 RBI, .332 OBP
Daniel Murphy: .291, 6 HR, 65 RBI, .332 OBP

Shortstop
Bud Harrelson: .258, 0 HR, 20 RBI, .348 OBP
Ruben Tejada: .289, 1 HR, 25 RBI, .333 OBP

Third Base
Wayne Garrett: .256, 16 HR, 58 RBI, team leader in stolen bases
David Wright: .306, 21 HR, 93 RBI, team leader in stolen bases

Outfield
Cleon Jones, Don Hahn, Rusty Staub, Willie Mays (combined stats): .254, 34 HR, 170 RBI
Jason Bay, Andres Torres, Lucas Duda, Scott Hairston (combined stats): .233, 46 HR, 169 RBI

Starting Pitcher (Ace)
Tom Seaver: 19-10, 2.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 251 Ks, Cy Young Award
R.A. Dickey: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 230 Ks, Cy Young Award

Starting Pitcher (Next Three)
Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, George Stone (combined stats): 40-34, 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 438 Ks
Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, Dillon Gee (combined stats): 25-25, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 363 Ks

Closer
Tug McGraw: 25 saves, 3.87 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Frank Francisco: 23 saves, 5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP



Pretty similar in many categories, huh?  The 1973 Mets were fortunate to play in one of the weakest divisions of all time and used it to their advantage.  The 2012 Mets were not as lucky, as they were stuck in the same division as the team with the best regular season record in baseball (Washington) and the top wild card team (Atlanta).

After coming within one win of their second World Series title, the Mets went into the 1974 season with high expectations but the same players.  Almost all of them underachieved.

John Milner had fewer homers and RBIs in 1974 even though he had 57 more plate appearances.  Wayne Garrett's numbers went down across the board, except for his strikeouts, which went up by 30%.  Rusty Staub's batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all decreased from his 1973 numbers.  No starter hit higher than Cleon Jones' .282, and Felix Millan was the only other starter who hit higher than .258.  The team finished last or next-to-last in the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs scored, hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases.  In other words, they stunk more than the swamp Shea Stadium was built on.

Even during the 1973 World Series, John Milner could tell that things were going to stink in 1974.

Because of the lack of hitting, Tom Seaver finished with his first non-winning season, going 11-11 despite a 3.20 ERA and his standard 200-plus strikeout season.  Jon Matlack tossed seven shutouts and had a stellar 2.41 ERA.  All that got him was a 13-15 record.  The bullpen was atrocious, with Harry Parker and Tug McGraw combining to pitch 61 games in relief.  They finished with seven saves and 23 losses.

The combination of weak hitting and subpar relief pitching caused the Mets to go from the penthouse to the outhouse in the span of one season.  The 2012 Mets were nowhere near the penthouse.  However, they only won eight fewer regular season games than their 1973 counterparts with a lineup and bullpen that was eerily similar to the pennant winners.

The 2013 Mets won't begin their season for another four months, but already there are rumblings that the team will go through another losing season.  The front office has to improve the offense.  They also have to put together a relief corps that will at the very least be serviceable instead of the human land mines that trotted out to the mound in 2012.

The 1974 team was a portent of things to come.  The 2013 team can't repeat history.  It's already been a dark first four seasons at Citi Field.  The light switch has to come on sooner or later (preferably sooner).

Stars The Mets Drafted But Couldn't Sign (Part One)

In a recent piece, I discussed the possibility of Jonathon Niese being the third-best homegrown left-handed starting pitcher in Mets history, after Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack.  Niese ranks in the team's top three in each of the following categories for homegrown lefty pitchers - starts, wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The other two players in the top three for those categories are Koosman and Matlack.

Of course, although Niese's numbers have improved from year to year, he might be No. 3 only because the Mets have not had much success drafting and developing left-handed starting pitchers, as can be seen by the inclusion of such non-legends as Eric Hillman, Pete Schourek and Bill Pulsipher in the team's top five in various categories.  Even promising left-handed starters like Jason Jacome (drafted by the Mets in 1991; made his debut for the team in 1994) couldn't maintain any early success they had in the big leagues.

Jacome made eight starts for the Mets in 1994 and pitched very well, going 4-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings, averaging nearly seven innings per start.  But the young southpaw couldn't duplicate his rookie success in his sophomore season.  Jacome went 0-4 with a 10.29 ERA in 1995, throwing only 21 innings in five starts for the Mets.  His slow start caused the Mets to give up on his once-promising potential.  In July, Jacome was traded to the Kansas City Royals for three players, including Derek Wallace, whose sole claim to fame with the Mets came on September 13, 1996, when he became the first pitcher in team history to strike out four batters in one inning.  Jacome would go on to win six more games in the majors with the Royals and Indians before bouncing around the minor league systems of the Diamondbacks, Astros, Cardinals and Giants.

Simply stated, the Mets have fared poorly when it comes to drafting and developing left-handed starters.  But that's not the point of this blog post.  What I'd like to discuss is something I came across when doing my research on the Jonathon Niese piece, particularly something I uncovered when looking back at who the Mets have drafted since 1965.

Did you know Roger Clemens was originally drafted by the Mets, but chose not to sign because he wanted to become a Texas Longhorn?  Did you also know that '80s nemesis John Tudor was also drafted by New York but said "no thanks" when he was asked for his signature on the dotted line?  They're not the only ones who said no to the Mets before saying yes somewhere else.

The following are a select group of players who were originally drafted by the Mets, but did not sign with the team, finding success elsewhere while the Mets and their fans were left shaking their heads at what might have been:

Ron Cey

The man lovingly known as the Penguin was originally drafted by the Mets out of high school in 1966, but chose not to sign and instead enrolled at Washington State University.  Two years later, he was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers, making his major league debut for them in 1971.  Cey became part of the famous infield that also included Steve Garvey at first, Davey Lopes at second and Bill Russell at shortstop.  Along with Cey at third base, the quartet played eight and a half seasons together, the longest of any infield in major league history.

Over his 17-year career spent with the Dodgers, Cubs and A's, Cey launched 316 HR and had 1,139 RBI.  Cey was also selected to six All-Star teams and played in four World Series while in Los Angeles, winning his only World Series ring as a member of the 1981 Dodgers.

In 1984, Cey helped the Cubs reach the postseason for the first time in 39 years by collecting 25 HR and 97 RBI for the long-suffering franchise.  Cey had more RBIs against the Mets that year (13) than he had against any other National League squad, as the Cubs held off the team that originally drafted Cey 28 years earlier for their first-ever NL East title.

Burt Hooton

Like Cey, Burt Hooton also spent the majority of his career with the Dodgers and Cubs, but he played for the two teams in reverse, making his major league debut with the Cubs, before spending the majority of his career with the Dodgers.  Also like Cey, Hooton was originally drafted by the Mets, but did not sign with the team that drafted him in 1968.  Instead, he increased his draft value by going 35-3 at the University of Texas at Austin before being drafted by the Cubs in 1971.  Hooton didn't do much with the Cubs, going 34-44 from 1971 to 1975.  But his stock went way up once he was traded to the Dodgers in May 1975.

In ten seasons with the Dodgers, Hooton went 112-84 with a 3.14 ERA.  Hooton pitched in three World Series for Los Angeles (1977, 1978, 1981), with the latter year being his best in the postseason.  In five October starts that year, Hooton went 4-1 with a 0.82 ERA.  Hooton did not give up an earned run against the Expos in the 1981 NLCS, earning him the MVP award for that series.  Hooton was also the winning pitcher for the Dodgers in the sixth and deciding game of the 1981 World Series, which gave the Dodgers their first championship since 1965.

Hooton finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 1985, which was fine with Mets fans.  After all, over his long career in the big leagues, Hooton wore more games against the Mets (21) than any other team he faced.  In 43 appearances (37 starts) against the team that couldn't get him to sign in 1968, Hooton went 21-14 with a 2.62 ERA, holding the Mets to a .218 batting average against him, his lowest mark against any team he faced.

John Tudor

John Tudor was drafted by the Mets in 1975 but did not sign with New York.  Instead, he hung around for the January 1976 secondary draft, where he was picked by the Boston Red Sox.  Tudor had several good seasons for the Red Sox, despite Fenway Park being notoriously unkind to left-handed pitchers.  From 1979 to 1983, Tudor went 39-32 with a 3.96 ERA for Boston.  He was then traded to the Pirates for Mike Easler and won 12 games for Pittsburgh in 1984.  After one season in the Steel City, Tudor was then flipped to St. Louis for George Hendrick.  It was in St. Louis that Tudor experienced his best seasons in the majors.

In 1985, John Tudor had arguably the best season by a Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1968.  Tudor finished the year with a 21-8 record and a 1.93 ERA.  He also led the league in WHIP (0.938), while holding opposing batters to a .209 batting average.  Furthermore, Tudor led the league with 10 complete game shutouts in 1985.  No pitcher has reached double digits in shutouts since then.  But Tudor finished second to Dwight Gooden in the Cy Young Award vote, as Doc won the pitching Triple Crown in 1985.  Tudor got the last laugh, however, as his Cardinals team edged out the Mets for the division title in 1985.  The Cardinals went on to win the NL pennant, but were denied a World Series title when umpire Don Denkinger blew a call at first base in Game 6.  Tudor then lost Game 7 (after winning Games 1 and 4) to the Royals, giving Kansas City their first and only World Series championship.

Tudor returned to the World Series in 1987, going 10-2 in an injury-plagued regular season and finally won a World Series ring in 1988 as a member of the Dodgers.  Tudor had been involved in a mid-season trade with Los Angeles that sent Pedro Guerrero to St. Louis (the third time Tudor had been traded for a veteran slugger, following the Mike Easler trade and the George Hendrick deal).  After one more injury-plagued season in L.A. in 1989, Tudor became a free agent and returned to St. Louis, where he went 12-4 with a 2.40 ERA in his final season in the big leagues.  Tudor finished his career with a .705 career winning percentage with the Cardinals and a 2.52 ERA.  Both numbers place Tudor in the top three all-time in Cardinals history.  As good as his ERA was against the rest of the league, it was even better against the Mets, as Tudor finished his career with a 2.41 ERA vs. New York in 22 starts.

Roger Clemens

Mets fans will always hate Roger Clemens for a number of reasons.  Whether it was his headhunting incident with Mike Piazza in 2000 or his inability to determine the difference between a broken bat shard and a baseball in that year's Fall Classic ("I thought it was the ball"), there was never any love lost between those who root for the Mets and Clemens.  But perhaps those same fans would have loved him had he chosen to sign with the Mets after they drafted him out of San Jacinto College in 1981.  But he didn't, choosing to go to the University of Texas before signing with the Boston Red Sox two years later.  The rest, as they say, is history.

Roger Clemens struck out more batters than any other Red Sox pitcher and his 192 wins in Boston tie him with Cy Young (the man, not the award named after him) for most in club history.  Speaking of Cy Young, Clemens won his award a record seven times, winning it thrice in Boston, twice in Toronto, once as a Yankee and once as an Astro.

The baseball history books might have looked completely different had the Mets been able to sign Clemens in 1981, but looking back, would we really want that negative publicity surrounding Clemens for his subsequent "alleged" steroid use?  I'd much rather remember Clemens for all the home runs Piazza hit off him, the homer Shawn Estes hit off him in 2002 after the Mets pitcher failed to plunk Clemens in an earlier inning, and most importantly, I'm quite fond of the memory of a clean-shaven Clemens waiting to celebrate a World Series title in 1986 that never happened.  Looks like Roger Clemens never got over '86.

Rafael Palmeiro

The Mets couldn't sign Roger Clemens in 1981, who was accused of taking steroids but never tested positive for them.  One year later, they tried to sign another player who would end up becoming linked to performance enhancing drugs.  However, unlike Clemens, this player eventually did test positive for steroid use.  That player was Rafael Palmeiro, who said thanks but no thanks to the Mets in 1982 before signing with the Cubs one year later.

Rafael Palmeiro wasn't much of a power hitter when he was called up by the Cubs in 1986, but he did hit his second career homer against Dwight Gooden in the game that clinched the Mets the National League East title on September 17.  After two-plus seasons in Chicago in which he only managed to hit 25 HR, the Cuban-born Palmeiro was traded along with Jamie "I'm Never Retiring" Moyer to the Texas Rangers.  It was in Texas that Palmeiro's power fully developed.  Whether it was artificially assisted is another question.

In each of his first three seasons in Arlington, Palmeiro's extra-base hit total increased rapidly.  Palmeiro went from 35 extra-base hits in 1989 to 55 extra-base hits in 1990 to 78 extra-base hits in 1991.  In the latter year, Palmeiro hit 26 HR and led the majors with 49 doubles.  But that was just the beginning.  From 1995 to 2003, Palmeiro hit at least 38 HR in every season, after only topping 30 HR once in his first nine seasons in the majors.  Then in 2005, after wagging his finger before Congress claiming that he had never done steroids - period - MLB drug tests proved otherwise, putting an exclamation point on his career.  Palmeiro finished his career with 3,020 hits, 569 HR and 1,835 RBIs, but no support for the Hall of Fame.


(To read the second part of this lengthier-than-expected blog post, where we reveal the next five stars the Mets drafted but couldn't sign, please click here.)

Top 3 Lefty Homegrown Starters: Koosman, Matlack ... Niese?

On Friday night, Jonathon Niese made his 30th and final start of the season for the Mets, holding the Braves to one run in seven innings to collect his career-high 13th win.  Niese also held Chipper Jones hitless in three at-bats on the night the Braves were celebrating the future Hall of Famer's career in Atlanta.  This was nothing new for Niese, as he held Jones to a .174 career batting average against him (4-for-23), with half of those hits coming before Niese became a regular in the Mets' starting rotation.

Since Niese joined the staff for good in 2010, Jones has batted 21 times against the Mets' southpaw and has only reached base twice for a .095 on-base percentage.  Niese has also never walked Jones in 24 career plate appearances.  That's not a typo, as every Niese-Jones confrontation has ended without the home plate umpire telling Jones to take his base.

Jonathon Niese's ability to retire Chipper Jones is one that eluded many Mets pitchers over the years.  But Jones is not the only batter who has struggled against Niese.  In fact, as Niese has matured from a 21-year-old rookie pitching at Shea Stadium in 2008 to one of the most reliable arms on the staff as a 25-year-old, many hitters have gone back to the dugout shaking their heads after failing to reach base against him.

In 2012, Niese enjoyed his finest season to date, establishing career highs across the board.  Niese achieved personal bests in wins (13), ERA (3.40), WHIP (1.17), innings pitched (190⅓), strikeouts (155), batting average against (.241), walks per nine innings (2.3) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.2).  At age 25, Niese has been a Met for all or parts of five seasons, making his way up the franchise's all-time pitching leaderboards with every start he makes.

Those leaderboards are loaded with names like Seaver, Gooden, Darling, Cone, etc.  What do all of those pitchers have in common?  They were all right-handed starters.  Similarly, left-handed starting pitchers Sid Fernandez, Al Leiter and (ahem) Tom Glavine are also all over the Mets' all-time leaderboards for pitchers but none of them came up through the Mets' farm system and all of them made their major league debuts pitching for another team.

If not for Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack, the Mets' all-time pitching leaderboards would be bereft of homegrown southpaws.  So if Koosman and Matlack are the two best homegrown left-handed starters in franchise history, then who would be third?  Believe it or not, that third member might just be Jonathon Niese.  Don't believe it?  Let's look at where Niese ranks among all other homegrown left-handed starting pitchers in Mets history who had a minimum of 20 starts and made at least half of his appearances in a starting role.

Starts:

Jerry Koosman

1. Jerry Koosman - 346 
2. Jon Matlack - 199
3. Jonathon Niese - 94
4. Pete Schourek - 47
5. Eric Hillman - 36

Wins:

Jon Matlack

1. Jerry Koosman - 140
2. Jon Matlack - 82
3. Jonathon Niese - 35
4. Pete Schourek - 16
5. Bill Pulsipher - 5

ERA:

Jonathon Niese

1. Jon Matlack - 3.03
2. Jerry Koosman - 3.09
3. Jonathon Niese - 4.06
4. Bill Pulsipher - 4.63
5. Pete Schourek - 4.65

WHIP:

Eric Hillman

1. Jon Matlack - 1.195
2. Jerry Koosman - 1.219
3. Jonathon Niese - 1.360
4. Eric Hillman - 1.422
5. Bill Pulsipher - 1.442

Strikeouts:

Pete Schourek

1. Jerry Koosman - 1,799
2. Jon Matlack - 1,023
3. Jonathon Niese - 470
4. Pete Schourek - 199
5. Bill Pulsipher - 101

K/BB Ratio:

Bill Pulsipher

1. Jonathon Niese - 2.73
2. Jon Matlack - 2.44
3. Jerry Koosman - 2.19
4. Eric Hilman - 2.13
5. Bill Pulsipher - 1.80

Did you notice anything interesting about each top five list?  In each list, the top three pitchers were always Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack and Jonathon Niese, although not necessarily in that order.  Also, when players such as Pete Schourek, Bill Pulsipher and Eric Hillman start cracking all-time top five lists for the Mets, it's fairly obvious that the Mets haven't had much success drafting, developing and calling up left-handed starters.

Say what you what about Jonathon Niese.  Say he's only a middle-of-the-rotation starter.  Say he hasn't fully realized his potential.  Say all of that, but then don't forget to say that he's also one of the best homegrown left-handed starting pitchers in team history.  And with the improvement he continues to show year after year, we may have to remove the word "left-handed" from the previous sentence before long.  Not bad for a southpaw who has yet to reach his 26th birthday.