The Magic Fortune Cookie Predicts the 2018 Mets Season

Your friendly neighborhood Metsies are coming off their first 90-plus loss campaign since the dark days of 2009, when Omar Minaya was employed by the team, David Wright had his first trip to the disabled list and Terry Collins wasn't in the dugout at Citi Field.  The 2018 squad looks to be quite different, except for the fact that Omar Minaya is back with the team, David Wright is setting up a residency on the D.L. and Terry Collins is no longer in the dugout at Citi Field.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

On a related note, this off-season saw Jay Bruce re-sign with the team after spending a few months in Keith Hernandez's favorite city, Cleveland.  The club also decided to bring back Jason Vargas to the fold, 11 years after he posted a 12.19 ERA in two starts for the Mets.  The team is crossing its fingers that his lifetime ERA in orange and blue will go down this season.  But we won't know the fortunes and misfortunes of either former and current Met until the season starts.  Or will we?

In the past, we employed a Magic 8-Ball to help us predict the upcoming campaign for the Mets.  But in protest of the Mets parting ways with its favorite target, Ray Ramirez, the Magic 8-Ball has decided to retire from its prognosticating post.  Fortunately, it didn't take long to find its replacement, mainly because only one applicant showed up for an interview.  Let's give a warm hand to our new teller of Mets fortunes...

Of course you do.  We went through an interview process.  I told you I'd ask you questions about the Mets' upcoming season and you'd give me something that resembles an answer.  If you wanted to add a little attitude to your responses to show off your personality, that was very much recommended, even if it meant insulting the team or me.

Thank you for being so supportive of the Mets and not the guy who pays your salary.  It's much appreciated.  Now let's move on to the first question.  After a year in which the team's pitchers posted a collective 5.01 ERA, do you think the Mets did enough to improve their pitching in 2018?

Already looking forward to going to my local liquor store for some.  Now what do you think of the upgrades at the corner infield positions, namely Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier?  Are they going to remind us of Carlos Delgado and David Wright, circa 2006?  Or perhaps Robin Ventura and John Olerud from 1999?  Maybe they remind you of another corner infield duo.

You're talking about Willie Montañez (.234, 5 HR, 47 RBI in 109 games) and Richie Hebner (.268, 10 HR, 79 RBI and a John Rocker-like hatred of New York).  How is it that your memory goes back to the 1970s?  Just how long were you in that restaurant before you came out to be interviewed for this position?

Oy, vey.  Calgon, take me away!  Anyway, what do you think of the team potentially playing Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes in the outfield?  Is that something that intrigues you?

Not exactly a vote of confidence for the two long-time infielders.  Is there any other position on the team you're not confident about heading into the season?

I see you're referring to the man who oversees the team's strength and conditioning program.  That's an interesting choice.  Speaking of strength and conditioning, now that Ray Ramirez is no longer able to be on the receiving end of boos during Opening Day introductions, who do you think will be subject to the wrath of Mets fans at Citi Field during the pre-game ceremonies?

Of course.  I should have known better than to ask that question.  After all, the Mets are playing the Cardinals on Opening Day.

Valid point.  Speaking of relievers, Mickey Callaway suggested that he might use a closer-by-committee approach.  Do you think this has a chance of working out for the team and the players involved?

Wow, you sound pretty confident about that.  Why do you think this move by the manager will fail?

Ah, so this is personal for you.  And why, pray tell, would any reliever on the 2004 Mets be a favorite of yours?

Wait, a former misused Mets reliever paid homage to a family of fortune cookies with his last name.  Okay, I have to know.  Which pitcher are you referring to?

I never claimed to be.  But I do know that Fortunato wasn't misused at all.  He was just "the other guy" who came to the Mets with Victor Zambrano in the much-maligned trade for former No. 1 overall draft pick Scott Kazmir.

Fair enough.  Now let's move on to my last question before I ask you to predict the team's final record in 2018.  Will Yoenis Céspedes ever stay on the field long enough to challenge the Mets' single season home run record?  He's averaged nearly 40 homers per 162 games played as a Met and the team record is 41 home runs, set by Todd Hundley in 1996 and matched by Carlos Beltrán ten years later.

So are you saying there's a chance we could potentially see home run history at Citi Field in 2018 as long as Céspedes shields himself from injuries?

Wait, what?  Okay, that's enough of that.  Just tell me what you think the Mets' final record will be and where they'll finish in the N.L. East.

Ya gotta love fortune cookies that stand up for those who stand up for them.  Even if said fortune cookies insult you by making off-color mom jokes.

And on that note, we'd like to thank the Magic Fortune Cookie, who did its best not to be just like the Magic 8-Ball used to be.  I didn't say the fortune cookie succeeded; I just said it did its best.  And if its predictions are on point, Mets fans can look forward to a season of high octane offense, Swarzak and Vargas coming through for the team and a healthy dose of boos for Yadier Molina.  Unless if Aaron Heilman makes a guest appearance at Citi Field.

Until next time, I hope you enjoy Opening Day and the upcoming season and please lay off the MSG; something I wish the Magic Fortune Cookie had done before I brought it in for the interview.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  Prior to this year's hiring of the Magic Fortune Cookie, it was the Magic 8-Ball that was making predictions for Studious Metsimus, doing its job every season since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the previous eight seasons, please click on the links below:

2017 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2016 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

Lucas Duda Is Finally Looking Like An Everyday Player

Duda may lumber around the bases, but it's his other lumber we care most about.  (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Coming into the season, Lucas Duda found himself in the awkward position of being in a platoon at first base with a player who, like him, batted from the left side of the plate.  Over the first two-plus weeks of the season, Duda and Ike Davis shared starting duties at first base, with Duda penciled into the starting lineup eight times and Davis five.

Davis accomplished little during the first two weeks of the season.  Other than a walk-off grand slam he hit as a pinch-hitter on April 5, Davis managed to go 4-for-23 with no homers and one RBI.  Meanwhile, Duda managed a two-homer game on April 4, driving all four runs scored by the Mets in a one-run victory.  Eleven days later, Duda collected four hits and drove in two runs in another Mets victory.  It was clear that Duda was flourishing as a run producer during the first few weeks of the season, while Davis was not.  Before one-tenth of the season had been completed, Ike Davis was a former Met and Lucas Duda was the team's everyday first baseman.

Duda is now thriving at the position.  In Friday night's game, his two-run opposite-field homer off All-Star pitcher Yu Darvish gave the Mets a two-run lead over the Rangers.  It also gave him the team lead in home runs (13) and RBI (43).  Duda also leads the team in slugging percentage (.472) and OPS (.817).  Since taking over the position for himself in mid-April, Duda has not just become one of the Mets' top offensive threats, he's also become one of the top run-producing first basemen in the entire National League.

Through Friday's games, Duda's 13 homers and 43 RBI rank highly among NL first basemen.  The only players at the position with more home runs and RBI than Duda are Anthony Rizzo (17 HR, 45 RBI), Paul Goldschmidt (15 HR, 55 RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (14 HR, 53 RBI) and Ryan Howard (14 HR, 51 RBI).  Duda's slugging percentage and OPS (.472/.817) are higher than Gonzalez (.447/.769) and Howard (.398/.708) and he compares favorably to young sluggers Rizzo (.493/.880) and Freddie Freeman (.497/.883).  And in case you were wondering, Duda's former platoon partner in New York, Ike Davis, falls outside the league's top ten in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage and OPS for first basemen.

Ike Davis started out well in Pittsburgh, but has fallen off over the past five weeks.  Since June 2, Davis is batting .197 with just four extra-base hits in 27 games (21 starts).  In addition, Davis has put up a pedestrian .276 slugging percentage and .602 OPS since the beginning of June.  Davis has fallen so quickly that he is now part of another first base platoon, this time with the right-handed hitting Gaby Sanchez.  As Davis has struggled in Pittsburgh, Duda has been a bright star in the Mets' lineup.

Since June 13, Duda has batted .313 with seven doubles, five homers and 12 RBI in 18 games (17 starts).  Duda is also the proud owner of a .656 slugging percentage and a whopping 1.045 OPS over that time period.  In addition, Duda has been one of the team's best clutch hitters this season, producing a .609 slugging percentage and 1.036 OPS with runners in scoring position, unlike Davis, whose numbers in those situations (.420/.877) aren't even close to what Duda has produced.

(Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)

Finally, of Duda's 13 HR this year, five have either tied the game or given the Mets the lead.  Why is five so important?  Because that number represents the total number of home runs hit by Ike Davis all season.  In other words, Davis has as many home runs this season as Duda has clutch homers.

There's a difference between hitting a home run and hitting a key home run.  Since April 21, Ike Davis has hit three homers - all of them have been solo shots and none of them tied the game or gave his team the lead.  Over the same time period, Duda has hit ten home runs, with six of them coming with men on base and three of them tying the game or giving the Mets the lead.

Simply stated, the Mets traded the right player when they dealt Ike Davis to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  In doing so, they finally removed the chains that had shackled Lucas Duda since he arrived at the big league level for the first time in 2010.  This is Duda's fifth season with the Mets, but it appears that this will be the first year he doesn't get sent back to the minor leagues for extra seasoning.  (Playing out of position in the outfield had a lot to do with that "extra minor league seasoning" as well.)  Duda has proven he belongs at the big league level and is quietly establishing himself as one of the top run-producing first basemen in the league.  All Ike Davis has done is become part of yet another platoon in Pittsburgh.

It may have taken him a while, but Lucas Duda looks like he's finally here to stay.  Opposing pitchers in the National League are going to wish he wasn't.
 

Buy This Book! (Because We're In It!)

Hello, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, your favorite Studious Metsimus roving reporter / culinary expert / book critic.  Welcome to a special edition of Bears On Books.  Today, instead of reviewing a book, we're just going to tell you to buy it without a formal review.

I know, I know.  As a respected book critic, it's unprofessional of me to just tell you to buy a book without actually offering a critique on said book, but trust me.  There's a good reason for my behavior.  You see, my Studious Metsimus colleague had one of his blog posts quoted and used as the basis for one of the chapters.

The book is called "So You Think You Know Baseball? : A Fan's Guide To The Official Rules" by Peter E. Meltzer (available for purchase on amazon.com or at your bookstore of choice).  In the book by the noted Phillies fan (but we won't hold that against him), Mr. Meltzer takes various scenarios and explains how umpires would handle them according to the official baseball rule book.  Mr. Meltzer does such a fine job of explaining difficult rules that even the two Adrians (that's umpires Adrian Johnson and Adrian Gonzalez) would have a tough time misinterpreting them.

But the chapter that I recommend highly is Chapter 18.  This is the chapter on base hits that explains when batters should get credit for them.  A piece written by my colleague, Ed Leyro, was considered to help answer a few questions about base hits.  If you haven't purchased the book, I took the liberty of taking some photos of the pages in question, which you can read below.  (I hope Mr. Meltzer doesn't sue me for that.  After all, he is an attorney when he's not writing books.)

 Click on the photos to enlarge in case your vision is as bad as Adrian Johnson's.

For the record, we know that Tom Seaver once pitched 8⅔ innings of no-hit ball against the Chicago Cubs on September 24, 1975.  But he was not one out away from a no-hitter, as the game was scoreless in the ninth.  Since the game was played at Wrigley Field, had Seaver completed nine hitless innings, the game would not have ended with the 27th out.  Seaver would have needed the Mets to take the lead in the top of the 10th and then he could have completed the no-hitter with a hitless tenth.  Therefore, my colleague's hypothetical situation in the left photo above was correct when he stated that Santana would have become the first Mets pitcher to come within one out of a no-hitter.

So what do you think, Mets fans?  Not bad, huh?  And in case you're asking "hey, it just says 'a New York Mets fan blogger' wrote that piece.  Where does it say that it was your colleague who wrote it?", allow me to show you another photo.  This is a photo of the "sources" section of Mr. Meltzer's book and should remove all doubt as to the identity of the so-called "New York Mets fan blogger".

Well, that does it for this special edition of Bears on Books.  My colleague would like to thank Peter E. Meltzer for finding his work worthy enough to be included in his book.  He'd also like to offer his thanks to Joe D. at Mets Merized Online for allowing him to write the original piece on his site.  Hopefully, the mention of MMO as a source in Mr. Meltzer's book will bring additional traffic to a truly wonderful site.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to get back to my reading.  There are 27 other chapters in the book that I need to read.  Happy reading and never stop believing.  Let's go Mets!

Joey's Small Bites: Dodgers & Padres & Bears, Oh My! (Part Two: Petco Park Tour)

Howdy doody, fellow Mets fans!  This is Joey Beartran, taking a break from dreaming about chicken nachos at Citi Field (a dream I have daily during the offseason) to share my experiences with you on our recent trip to the National League ballparks in Southern California.

In part one of this two-part series, I discussed our tour of Dodger Stadium (which you can read for yourself by clicking here), where there is plenty of love for the Brooklyn Dodgers and Fred Wilpon's high school sweetheart (Sandy Koufax) and hero (Jackie Robinson), in addition to all the Gil Hodges memorabilia that should be at Citi Field.

Part two of the Studious Metsimus Southern California tour took us to Petco Park in beautiful San Diego.  The ballpark is visually stunning from the outside, but it is inside where the beauty fully comes out to play.  Let's take a look!

Everything is beautiful in San Diego, which is why I fit in so well.

Our tour guide took us into the ballpark behind home plate, up the staircase that is adjacent to a cascading waterfall (which was not on at the time - water conservation is important everywhere, my friends).  He explained that Petco Park has some of the widest concourses for fans in the major leagues and has the most plants found in any major league ballpark.  The plants were carefully selected because San Diego doesn't get much rain (approximately 10-15" of precipitation falls in San Diego annually, according to our tour guide), so only plants that can withstand drought were planted in and around the ballpark.

One of the great things about watching a game at Petco Park is that you can purchase a Standing Room Only ticket behind the last row of seats in the field level behind home plate.  The price of the ticket is only $5.  Compare that to the last row of seats behind home plate, which are $69 and only two feet in front of the Standing Room Only section, and you have the best bargain in the ballpark.  Of course, you might not be able to see high fly balls from that area (see photo below of the view from the Standing Room Only section), but no Padre can hit high fly balls anyway.

Ryan Ludwick led the 2011 Padres with 11 HR, meaning that you probably have a better chance of catching a baseball in the Standing Room Only area than you do in the outfield seats at Petco Park.

From the Standing Room Only area, we moved along the right field side of the ballpark, taking note of the Padres dugout as we walked to one of the unique aspects of the park - the Western Metal Supply Co. building.

Construction of Petco Park was delayed for two seasons because of the building, which has been declared a historic landmark in San Diego.  After a court hearing, it was determined that only the exterior of the building was considered a landmark, so the Padres were able to incorporate it into the ballpark, change and add things to the inside of the building, as long as they kept the exterior intact.  The Western Metal Supply Co. building now provides a unique viewing perspective in the left field corner.  (Here are the pics to prove it.  Among them is a photo that features my sister (Iggy Beartran) and Ballapeño, who is the mascot of the Padres' AA team, the San Antonio Missions.)

Inside the Western Metal Supply Co. building, you will find all the San Diego baseball history you can digest.  We're not just talking about the San Diego Padres major league franchise, which came into existence in 1969.  We're also talking about the San Diego Padres of the Pacific Coast League, which started play in 1936.

The minor league San Diego Padres team was most known for one teenaged player who went on to become one of the best hitters in the major leagues as a member of the Boston Red Sox.  Perhaps you've heard of this native San Diegan.  His name was Ted Williams.

The Splendid Splinter got his professional start in San Diego as a member of the PCL's Padres.

The Padres are very proud of their history, even though they've never won a World Series title in two trips to the Fall Classic.  The team has retired the numbers of five of their former players (Randy Jones, Steve Garvey, Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn and Trevor Hoffman) and isn't shy to show off their love for these players.

All over the ballpark, you will see tributes to these great players, even though Winfield and Gwynn are the only two to make it to Cooperstown.  From a Tony Gwynn statue (more on that later) to a baseball jersey made out of baseball cards to glass-enclosed "lockers" dedicated to their legendary players, coaches and front office personnel, Petco Park has no shortage of tributes to those who gave their all for the Padres.

By the way, your eyes weren't deceiving you up there.  That really was Babe Ruth in a "Bustin' Babes" jersey.  When the man who never knew a hot dog he couldn't eat was a player, he was part of a barnstorming team that played a few games in San Diego.  That made the Bambino part of San Diego baseball history and got him a spot on their wall.  See, I wasn't kidding when I said San Diego is proud of their baseball history!

Speaking of "never knowing a hot dog he couldn't eat", by this point in the tour, I was getting a little hungry (like you weren't expecting me to say that eventually), but I was disappointed that just like in the Dodger Stadium tour, the concession stands weren't open for business.  It's too bad because I really wanted to try one of their famous Friar Franks.  (Keeping the concession stands closed was not suh-WEET in my book.)  At least they have all-you-can-eat seats, so I'll definitely be making a trip back to Petco Park when there are games to be played.

After the Western Metal Supply Co. building and closed concession stand tour, we went back into the ballpark to check out the press box, suites and lounges (where were large and had great menus, but not unlike any we've ever seen before).  On the way there, we stopped at the Padres Hall of Fame Bar and Grill and noticed a couple of interesting jerseys that belonged to two former Padres.  However, the two uniforms did not have "San Diego" or "Padres" written across the front.

They were the WBC jerseys of former Met (and a Padre for one season) Mike Piazza and former Padre Adrian Gonzalez.  Piazza wore No. 31 as a coach for Team Italy in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, while Gonzalez wore No. 23 for Team Mexico.  The jerseys were there because both players suited up for the Padres at one time and because several of the WBC games were played at Petco Park.  (Ballapeño clearly has a fav'rit player, according to the photos below.)

From there, it was time to get some on-field action.  The tour guide was quite informative when telling us about the special advantages the Padres have on the field.  For example, the Padres' home dugout is 57 feet long and the bench in front of the dugout fences has a back for players and coaches to lean back on while they're sitting on it.  The visiting team's dugout is only 46 feet long and the bench in front of their dugout fence has no back for leaning purposes.  I suppose a player could lean back while sitting on that bench, but then he'd risk an injury, as the bench is a few feet above the dugout floor.  Of course, if it was a Mets player, it would cause him to miss the entire season.

In addition, the Padres have heaters and coolers in their dugout, while the visiting team has none.  Also, the Padres' bullpen is situated on grass behind the left field fence.  The road team has to warm up their pitchers on a makeshift mound in foul territory along the right field foul line, where they're subjected to the wrath (or what passes for wrath in laid-back San Diego) of the fans.  More importantly, members of the visiting team can be struck by screaming line drives that curve foul at the last moment.

I'm sure all that information is keeping you wide awake, but what you really want to see are the pictures of us on the field and in the dugout, right?  Without further ado, here they are!

Most of the time, the tour of the dugout and the field represents the end of the tour.  However, at Petco Park, there is much more to see!

Just beyond the center field fence is an area called "Park at the Park", which is open from sunrise to sunset on non-game days.  From there, you can go down a flight of steps (where the Petco Park center field bleacher seats are located) to an area that resembles a beach.  This is where kids can play during the game while their parents watch the action on the field.

Behind this seating area is a small park that contains a whiffle ball field (for kids and adults) and a statue of Mr. Padre himself, Tony Gwynn.  (See, I wasn't lying when I said "more on that later" ten paragraphs and 22 photos ago.)  We didn't take a photo of the homeless man sleeping behind the statue (or was it the San Diego chapter of "Occupy Wall Street", called "Occupy Tony Gwynn Drive"?) but we did get some great shots of the statue, beach and playing field.

Well, that about does it, Mets fans.  I hope you enjoyed our recap of the Studious Metsimus Southern California ballpark tour.  Both Dodger Stadium and Petco Park should be on your list of ballparks to visit whenever you want to make a trip to the West Coast to see the Mets play.  If you can't make it out to these cities during the baseball season, then I highly recommend taking the tours that we took.

At each park, the tour guides were informative, knew their team's history (unlike the tour guides at Citi Field - isn't that right, Mr. Prince?) and they didn't try to sell you suites (a la the Citi Field tour), making it a pleasurable experience for our entire staff.

Oh, one more thing before I sign off, since I know you were wondering.  Remember how I said none of the concession stands were open at Dodger Stadium and Petco Park?  Well, that part was true, but I did make a friend inside the Petco Park Team Store.  It wasn't edible, but the slice of Padres Pizza (see photo below) was a perfect ending to a fantastic Southern California baseball trip.

On behalf of Iggy Beartran and Ballapeño, I'm Joey Beartran, reminding you that it sometimes does rain in Southern California, but it should never dampen your feelings on the New York Mets.  Let's go Mets!

Hungry bears and a Padres pepperoni pizza pillow always go hand-in-hand!