The Magic Fortune Cookie Predicts the 2018 Mets Season

Your friendly neighborhood Metsies are coming off their first 90-plus loss campaign since the dark days of 2009, when Omar Minaya was employed by the team, David Wright had his first trip to the disabled list and Terry Collins wasn't in the dugout at Citi Field.  The 2018 squad looks to be quite different, except for the fact that Omar Minaya is back with the team, David Wright is setting up a residency on the D.L. and Terry Collins is no longer in the dugout at Citi Field.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

On a related note, this off-season saw Jay Bruce re-sign with the team after spending a few months in Keith Hernandez's favorite city, Cleveland.  The club also decided to bring back Jason Vargas to the fold, 11 years after he posted a 12.19 ERA in two starts for the Mets.  The team is crossing its fingers that his lifetime ERA in orange and blue will go down this season.  But we won't know the fortunes and misfortunes of either former and current Met until the season starts.  Or will we?

In the past, we employed a Magic 8-Ball to help us predict the upcoming campaign for the Mets.  But in protest of the Mets parting ways with its favorite target, Ray Ramirez, the Magic 8-Ball has decided to retire from its prognosticating post.  Fortunately, it didn't take long to find its replacement, mainly because only one applicant showed up for an interview.  Let's give a warm hand to our new teller of Mets fortunes...

Of course you do.  We went through an interview process.  I told you I'd ask you questions about the Mets' upcoming season and you'd give me something that resembles an answer.  If you wanted to add a little attitude to your responses to show off your personality, that was very much recommended, even if it meant insulting the team or me.

Thank you for being so supportive of the Mets and not the guy who pays your salary.  It's much appreciated.  Now let's move on to the first question.  After a year in which the team's pitchers posted a collective 5.01 ERA, do you think the Mets did enough to improve their pitching in 2018?

Already looking forward to going to my local liquor store for some.  Now what do you think of the upgrades at the corner infield positions, namely Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier?  Are they going to remind us of Carlos Delgado and David Wright, circa 2006?  Or perhaps Robin Ventura and John Olerud from 1999?  Maybe they remind you of another corner infield duo.

You're talking about Willie Montañez (.234, 5 HR, 47 RBI in 109 games) and Richie Hebner (.268, 10 HR, 79 RBI and a John Rocker-like hatred of New York).  How is it that your memory goes back to the 1970s?  Just how long were you in that restaurant before you came out to be interviewed for this position?

Oy, vey.  Calgon, take me away!  Anyway, what do you think of the team potentially playing Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes in the outfield?  Is that something that intrigues you?

Not exactly a vote of confidence for the two long-time infielders.  Is there any other position on the team you're not confident about heading into the season?

I see you're referring to the man who oversees the team's strength and conditioning program.  That's an interesting choice.  Speaking of strength and conditioning, now that Ray Ramirez is no longer able to be on the receiving end of boos during Opening Day introductions, who do you think will be subject to the wrath of Mets fans at Citi Field during the pre-game ceremonies?

Of course.  I should have known better than to ask that question.  After all, the Mets are playing the Cardinals on Opening Day.

Valid point.  Speaking of relievers, Mickey Callaway suggested that he might use a closer-by-committee approach.  Do you think this has a chance of working out for the team and the players involved?

Wow, you sound pretty confident about that.  Why do you think this move by the manager will fail?

Ah, so this is personal for you.  And why, pray tell, would any reliever on the 2004 Mets be a favorite of yours?

Wait, a former misused Mets reliever paid homage to a family of fortune cookies with his last name.  Okay, I have to know.  Which pitcher are you referring to?

I never claimed to be.  But I do know that Fortunato wasn't misused at all.  He was just "the other guy" who came to the Mets with Victor Zambrano in the much-maligned trade for former No. 1 overall draft pick Scott Kazmir.

Fair enough.  Now let's move on to my last question before I ask you to predict the team's final record in 2018.  Will Yoenis Céspedes ever stay on the field long enough to challenge the Mets' single season home run record?  He's averaged nearly 40 homers per 162 games played as a Met and the team record is 41 home runs, set by Todd Hundley in 1996 and matched by Carlos Beltrán ten years later.

So are you saying there's a chance we could potentially see home run history at Citi Field in 2018 as long as Céspedes shields himself from injuries?

Wait, what?  Okay, that's enough of that.  Just tell me what you think the Mets' final record will be and where they'll finish in the N.L. East.

Ya gotta love fortune cookies that stand up for those who stand up for them.  Even if said fortune cookies insult you by making off-color mom jokes.

And on that note, we'd like to thank the Magic Fortune Cookie, who did its best not to be just like the Magic 8-Ball used to be.  I didn't say the fortune cookie succeeded; I just said it did its best.  And if its predictions are on point, Mets fans can look forward to a season of high octane offense, Swarzak and Vargas coming through for the team and a healthy dose of boos for Yadier Molina.  Unless if Aaron Heilman makes a guest appearance at Citi Field.

Until next time, I hope you enjoy Opening Day and the upcoming season and please lay off the MSG; something I wish the Magic Fortune Cookie had done before I brought it in for the interview.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  Prior to this year's hiring of the Magic Fortune Cookie, it was the Magic 8-Ball that was making predictions for Studious Metsimus, doing its job every season since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the previous eight seasons, please click on the links below:

2017 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2016 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

Joey's Soapbox: I'm Okay With Sandy Standing Pat

Hello, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran.  Today's trade deadline combined with my Studious Metsimus colleague having a fever has allowed me to get on my soapbox for the first time since Scott Atchison was still a Met.  Needless to say, I've had a lot of things on my mind since my last soapbox rant, but today is not about ranting.  In fact, it's about giving praise to Sandy Alderson.

You see, while teams like the Tigers have been trying to employ every Cy Young Award winner on the planet and the Red Sox have been involved in two blockbuster trades involving all their John/Jons (Beantown says goodbye to Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and John Lackey, while Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig are all shipping up to Boston), the Mets decided they're better off not forcing any deals.  And that's just fine with me.

Ten years ago yesterday, then-general manager Jim Duquette pulled the trigger on two ill-advised deals, sending Ty Wigginton and Jose Bautista (yes, THAT Jose Bautista) to the Pirates for Jeff Keppinger, Kris Benson and Anna Benson.  Duquette also sent Jose Diaz and former No. 1 draft pick Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato.

Keppinger played just 33 games as a Met before being traded to Kansas City, while the Bensons combined for 14 wins, a 4.23 ERA, a sexy Santa and a whole lot of controversy.  Meanwhile, Wigginton and Bautista have combined to produce 371 homers and 1,098 RBI since removing their "Property of the New York Mets" T-shirts.

Although the loss of Jose Diaz didn't hurt the Mets much, the loss of Scott Kazmir did.  Kazmir has been wobbly at various points of his career, but he has still reached double digits in wins in seven seasons and is currently having the best year of his career, going 12-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his first year with the Oakland Athletics.  He also earned his third All-Star selection in 2014.  What legacy did Zambrano and Fortunato leave behind?  Well, Zambrano failed to be "fixed in ten minutes" by pitching coach Rick Peterson and posted ten wins and a 4.42 ERA in three mostly uneventful seasons with the Mets.  Meanwhile, Fortunato had a 7.06 ERA in 17 relief appearances, which is the sixth-highest ERA for a Mets pitcher with that many appearances.

Duquette made these deals while the Mets were four games under .500, seven games out of first place in the NL East and seven-and-a-half games out of the wild card spot.  If those numbers look familiar, that's because this year's Mets are four games under .500, seven-and-a-half games out of first place in the division and six games out of the second wild card spot.

The 2004 Mets went 22-38 after their two trade deadline deals, finishing 25 games out of first and costing Jim Duquette his job.  Ten years later, Sandy Alderson has decided to stand pat and continue with his plan, a plan that includes players like Lucas Duda, Jon Niese, Jacob deGrom, et al.  Alderson has also finally handed over the keys to the bullpen to younger players like Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia, a move that has the Mets steering in the right direction.

It is obvious that there are still some positions that could be improved, but there is no need to force anything now.  Deals for a shortstop can be made in the winter, as can an upgrade to the outfield.  After all, anything will be better than the Chris Young Experiment.

The Mets have players to trade.  They just don't need to trade them now.  They most certainly don't need a repeat of the 2004 trade deadline fiasco.  At least the Mets had the funds then to buy their way out of that hole.  They don't have those funds now.  So it is wiser to be prudent now, especially with Matt Harvey coming back next season to bolster an already strong starting rotation.

I probably would have had more to rant about on my soapbox had Alderson pulled the trigger on a deal today.  But he did not.  And I think the Mets are better off because of it.  The future is bright at Citi Field.  It did not to get cloudy with an unnecessary trade.  Bravo to Sandy Alderson for standing pat at this year's trade deadline.

Sandy Can't "Duquette" Out For Help This Year

Eight years ago today, the Mets came out of the All-Star Break with a win against the Philadelphia Phillies in extra innings.  Although they were only two games above .500 at the time, the Mets were in the thick of a tight four-team race in the National League East, with one game separating the Braves (46-42), Phillies (46-42), Marlins (45-43) and Mets (45-43).  The Mets then proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games, losing some ground to their division rivals, but still only five games behind the division-leading Braves.

Despite their struggles, general manager Jim Duquette considered the Mets to be contenders for the division title (at the time, the Padres and Giants were tied atop the wild card standings, with both teams ten games above .500) and decided to upgrade the team in a last-ditch effort to stay in the playoff hunt.  "Last-ditch" ended up being an appropriate term for the trades orchestrated by Duquette, as the Mets dug themselves a "ditch" that they could not climb out of, while Duquette didn't "last" as Mets' GM, replaced before season's end by Omar Minaya.

Although there were three trades made by Duquette on July 30, 2004, two of them were connected.  The first trade sent top prospect Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for starting pitcher Victor Zambrano and reliever Bartolome Fortunato.  Although Zambrano had a 35-27 career mark for the perennial basement dwellers in Tampa, his 4.47 ERA and 1.49 WHIP were not exactly top-of-the-rotation caliber.

In 2003, Zambrano led the American League in walks (106), hit batsmen (20) and wild pitches (15).  Prior to his trade to the Mets, he was once again leading the league in walks (96) and had hit 16 batters in 22 starts.  Clearly, Duquette thought a change in scenery and ten minutes with pitching coach Rick Peterson (as Peterson infamously claimed would be all he would require to "fix" Zambrano) would do the trick.  He thought wrong.

Injuries and poor performances limited Zambrano to 35 starts as a Met, as he went 10-14 for the team with a nearly identical ERA (4.42) and WHIP (1.49) as he had in Tampa.  Similarly, Bartolome Fortunato suffered from injuries (he missed the entire 2005 season) and poor performances on the mound (7.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 17 career relief appearances for the Mets) and was out of baseball by 2006.

Scott Kazmir, although not as successful as a first round draft pick should have been, still became the Rays' all-time leader in wins, strikeouts, starts and innings pitched (he has now dropped to No. 2 in those categories, supplanted by current Rays pitcher James Shields).  Kazmir also led the Rays to their only World Series appearance in 2008, the same year the Mets finished a game short of the playoffs for the second consecutive season.  With a productive Kazmir on the pitching staff instead of fill-ins and journeymen, who knows where the Mets could have gone in 2006, 2007 and 2008?

The other two trades orchestrated by Duquette on that fateful late July day in 2004 featured a player who was barely a Met and a player who now kills his former team with regularity.  First, Duquette traded minor leaguer Justin Huber to the Royals for a little-known prospect named Jose Bautista.  The Mets then sent Bautista and infielder Ty Wigginton to the Pirates for former No. 1 overall draft pick Kris Benson and infielder Jeff Keppinger.

Bautista has since become one of the most feared sluggers in the major leagues, leading all players with 124 HR since the beginning of the 2010 campaign.  Wigginton is not just the last Met to bowl over a catcher at the plate, but he has also become a pretty good hitter in his own right.  Since leaving the Mets in 2004, Wigginton has hit 138 HR for six teams.  In 30 games (24 starts) against his former team, Wigginton is batting .308 with five HR and 26 RBI.  He also owns a .390 on-base percentage and a .560 slugging percentage against the Mets.  In 2012, Wigginton has become a one-man wrecking crew versus the Mets in more ways than one.  In only 29 at-bats, Wigginton has three home runs and 14 RBIs against the team that sent him packing eight years ago.  He also wrecked Josh Thole's head, sidelining him with a concussion in a (you guessed it) home plate collision with the Mets' catcher.

Jose Bautista slugs baseballs.  Ty Wigginton slugs catchers.  Just ask Josh Thole, assuming he can remember.

The two players received for Bautista and Wigginton did not have the greatest success for the Mets during their time in New York.  Jeff Keppinger only played in 33 games for the Mets in 2004, spending the entire 2005 season at AAA-Norfolk, before being traded to the Royals in 2006 for Ruben Gotay.  Keppinger has become a solid utility player since then.  He hit .332 in 241 at-bats for the Reds in 2007, and is now hitting .312 for the Rays in 138 at-bats this season.  In six-plus seasons since leaving the Mets, Keppinger is a .283 career hitter.

Kris Benson was never horrible as a Met (14-12, 4.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 39 starts).  He just wasn't what the Mets hoped they were getting.  Although Benson was only 30 when he pitched his last game for the Mets in 2005, he went on to win 13 more games in the majors for three teams (Baltimore, Texas, Arizona) before calling it a career to become a successful businessman following the 2010 season.

That brings us to Sandy Alderson and the 2012 Mets.  (Finally!)  This year's Mets came out of the All-Star Break a half-game out of the second wild card spot and 4½ games behind the first place Washington Nationals.  One sweep to the Braves later, and the Mets find themselves 3½ games out of the final wild card spot and 6½ games out of first.

With all the talk about improving the league's worst bullpen, maybe Alderson should hold off on making a trade that would only serve to help the team this year.  If he is to make a trade, it has to be one that can also help the Mets in the future, not just one that might be too little, too late to help them succeed in 2012.

If the Mets continue to fall in the standings, similar to the way the 2004 Mets did after the All-Star Break, it would behoove Sandy Alderson not to make any drastic moves.  There's no need to sell off the future in a last-ditch effort to remain in contention in the present.  The 2004 Mets were around .500 when Duquette became Trader Jim.  They finished the season 20 games under .500.  This year's squad might not contend as long as we'd like them to, but they're also not the type of team who will finish so far under .500 that the general manager will be canned.

That was then.  This is now.  And Sandy Alderson is a better GM than Jim Duquette.  If the Mets don't gain ground in the standings prior to the trade deadline, I have full faith in Sandy Alderson that he will either not make any trades or he will only deal for a player who will help the team beyond this season.  Buying for the sake of buying doesn't get you anything but the door slammed behind you on the way out.  Sandy Alderson knows this, and that's why he won't "Duquette" out with other teams for players.  He's a better general manager than that.