The Mets Outfield Is Showing Life Without Being Bourn

Remember when the Mets were trying to land Michael Bourn during the offseason?  Bourn decided to take the money and run to Cleveland instead.  So how's that going for him?  Well, his new team is doing well in the American League Central, just three games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers.  But they're not succeeding because of Bourn.  In fact, other than a decent batting average (.291), Bourn's other numbers are far less than what Cleveland bargained for when they signed him.

Earlier this season, Bourn had a short stint on the disabled list, but he has still managed to rack up 306 at-bats.  In those at-bats, he's collected 14 doubles, one triple, four homers and 29 RBI.  He's also scored 43 runs and stolen 13 bases, while striking out 74 times and drawing 20 walks.

Think about this.  Bourn was signed for his defensive prowess (he's won two Gold Gloves) and for his speed.  Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to steal many bases, as well as leg out many doubles and triples.  Yet Bourn is seventh on his own team in doubles (Asdrubal Cabrera has eight more doubles than Bourn even though Bourn has one more at-bat than Cabrera) and five teammates, including backup catcher Yan Gomes, have more triples than Bourn.  Bourn isn't even leading the team in stolen bases.  That honor goes to Jason Kipnis, who has 21 steals in 26 attempts.

And let's look at those stolen base numbers for Bourn.  He has 13 steals in 21 attempts.  In 2011, he led the league in times caught stealing with 14.  But he also stole a league-leading 61 bases that year, which made it easy to overlook the times he was erased on the bases.  Last year, he was once again the caught stealing champion with 13.  He was successful on 42 stolen base attempts, a noticeable decline from his 2011 numbers, but still not something to be worried about.  This year, Bourn has just 13 thefts, which is a significant dropoff.  Despite the drastic decrease in stolen bases, Bourn is still the league leader in caught stealing with eight.  Clearly, he is not the player he once was in the stolen base department, as his success rate has been taking a tremendous hit in 2013.

In addition to stealing bases, a leadoff hitter is supposed to get on base and score runs.  Although Bourn has never been a threat to lead the league in on-base percentage, he has still managed to maintain an OBP above .340 in each of the last four seasons.  This year, despite his .291 batting average, Bourn is only reaching base at a .338 clip, which would be his lowest on-base percentage since 2008.  After averaging 61 walks per season since 2009, including a career-high 70 walks last season, Bourn has only seen ball four 20 times this year in 330 plate appearances.

The combination of his poor stolen base success rate and his inability to draw a walk has limited Bourn to only 43 runs scored, which is tied for fifth-most on the Indians.  Prior to this year, Bourn had surpassed 90 runs scored in three of his last four seasons.  The one year he failed to score 90, he missed the last three weeks of the season due to an oblique injury.  He still managed to score 84 runs in 2010 despite missing 21 games.

So that's what Michael Bourn has done in his first year with the Indians.  Now let's compare his numbers to the ones posted by Mets center fielder Juan Lagares.  You might notice some similarities between the two.

• Bourn: .291/.338/.382, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 43 runs, 13 SB, 74 K, 20 BB, 1.9 WAR
  
• Lagares: .263/.294/.398, 15 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 17 runs, 2 SB, 47 K, 7 BB, 1.9 WAR

Juan Lagares looks better in blue and orange than Michael Bourn, don't you think?

Now what if I told you that Bourn has almost twice as many plate appearances (330) than Lagares has with the Mets (171)?  Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that if Lagares had come to the plate 330 times, his cumulative offensive statistics would be equal to or would surpass many of the numbers posted by Bourn.

There are two things, however, that Bourn has a commanding edge over Lagares.  First, he is more than six years older than Lagares.  Bourn will turn 31 in December, while Lagares won't turn 25 until next April.  And second, Bourn is in the first year of a four-year, $48 million contract.  A vesting option could turn that into a five-year, $60 million deal.  Lagares is playing for the major league mininum salary.

The Mets came close to paying Michael Bourn tens of millions of dollars to play center field for the team until his mid-30s.  Instead, they just handed over the job to a player in his mid-20s whose numbers are rivaling those being put up by Bourn in Cleveland.  The only numbers Lagares is not rivaling Bourn in is age and salary.

When the season began, the Mets were playing musical chairs in the outfield, hoping to find a set of three players that would be around when the music stopped.  With nearly two-thirds of the season complete, the Mets have finally found those three players.  With Eric Young, Jr. and Marlon Byrd flanking him in left field and right field, respectively, Juan Lagares has taken over as the field general in the outfield.  He's done everything that's been asked of him, including playing stellar defense.  That's what the Mets were hoping to get from Michael Bourn before the season started.  It's good to know that the outfield has shown signs of life without ever being Bourn.
 

Bourn To Run (In Cleveland)

Maybe Justin Turner can play the outfield at Citi Field now that Michael Bourn will not.

It looks like the Mets will be keeping their 11th pick in the 2013 amateur draft after all.  Reports are flooding Twitter that former Braves outfielder Michael Bourn has agreed to a four-year, $48 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  The deal includes a vesting option that could make the deal worth $60 million over five years.

Cleveland has been very active recently signing reclamation projects.  They have added Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jason Giambi over the past few days, to name a few.  But Bourn is far from being a reclamation project.  Bourn will join new acquisition Nick Swisher in the outfield to give the Indians a nice blend of power, speed and douchiness.

The Mets will now be left with David Wright as the team's main speed threat and no outfielders with any significant major league experience.  But at least they got rid of Jason Bay, eh?

Q & A Highlights With Sandy Alderson & Pals

On Wednesday night, the Studious Metsimus staff was invited to attend a special Q & A session for Mets season ticket holders at Citi Field.  Master of ceremonies Kevin Burkhardt was there, as well as general manager Sandy Alderson and his merry men (from left to right - John Ricco, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi).

For 45 minutes, the front office foursome fielded questions from the audience, which included yours truly, Studious Metsimus roving reporter/culinary expert Joey Beartran, and my Gal For All Seasons (The Coop).

Kevin Burkhardt began the session by introducing the four members of the Mets' front office, then gave the floor to Sandy Alderson.  Alderson opened the evening's events with a thoughtful and well-rehearsed monologue, which included this zinger after he started to discuss the state of the bullpen as it currently stands:

"I'm not sure how we can end up with a not-improved bullpen."




Alderson and his Super Best Friends tackled a rapid barrage of questions from concerned season ticket holders.  From questions about the outfield to how long it was taking for the team to improve to a shocker about whose idea it was not to spend exorbitant amounts of money during the off-season, the members of the front office did not shy away from any of the fans' questions.

When asked about the reason why it's taking so long for the team to be competitive, Alderson said that he doesn't want to buy, buy, buy just to satisfy the short-term needs of the team.  He summarized by saying:

"We don't want to be there one year and gone the next."




A concerned fan asked Alderson why the team is still unwilling to spend money, to which the general manager gave an unexpected answer:

"The reason we haven't spent the money is not because of Fred Wilpon or Saul Katz.  It's because of me."






Of course, one of the hot topics of the evening was the status of the Mets' outfield.  In responding to one fan's question on the outfield, Alderson said the team created a list of all available outfielders that they would consider.  Entering this week, only two outfielders remained on that list.  One was Michael Bourn, who Alderson admitted would not become a Met if the team was forced to give up its 11th pick in next year's amateur draft.  The other was just signed by the Yankees.  Who was that coveted outfielder?  Sandy, take it away!

"Juan Rivera"




Yup, you heard him right.  Apparently, Juan Rivera was on the shrinking list of outfielders the Mets were considering.  That's the same Juan Rivera who hasn't had a productive season since 2009.  Kinda sounds like Jason Bay.

It wasn't just a Sandy Party at the Q & A session.  His three assistants/associates/yes men also got a chance to field questions.  They were asked which players they were excited to see in spring training that might be flying under the radar.  Their responses?

J.P. Ricciardi

"Jack Leathersich.  He reminds me of Josh Edgin ... he struck out well over a batter per inning last year at two minor league levels."

Paul DePodesta

"Rafael Montero.  He can throw 92 or 93 [miles per hour], but if there's a guy on second base and two outs, he can throw 95.  Also, 70% of his pitches went for strikes.  The major league average is in the low 60s."

John Ricco

"Collin Cowgill.  T.C. [Terry Collins] will like him.  He can play all three outfield positions.  Zzzzzzzzz."







I don't know what to think of Ricciardi's assessment of Leathersich.  He says Leathersich reminds him of a pitcher who had a 4.56 ERA with the Mets in 2012 and allowed a homer every five innings he pitched.  I'd like someone a little better than that in my bullpen, please.

DePodesta painted an impressive picture of Montero.  It's too bad he's due to begin the season at AA-Binghamton.  He might not make an impact at the major league level until 2014. 

As for Ricco's "review" of Cowgill ... uh ...he didn't exactly say much or give us anything to get excited about.  Then again, he looked a little like the fifth Beatle when he was up on stage, perhaps wondering what his former crony, Omar Minaya, was up to.  Then he fell asleep.

Finally, my Gal For All Seasons got to ask her question.  She asked Alderson what the status of Dillon Gee was, especially considering that he was shut down early in 2012 and that very little news of his recovery effort has been documented in the media.  Alderson made her and the audience smile when he said:

 "We're very confident that he's going to be ready to go, that he'll be on the staff on Opening Day."




Sandy Alderson, John Ricco, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi were forthright in their responses to some difficult questions by the fans.  They did not hide from any of the questions and seemed to create a positive buzz for the team when the night was over.

After the session was over, the foursome posed for pictures and had one-on-one conversations with various members of the audience (myself included).  Alderson admitted to me that he does read Mets blogs, but usually sticks to ones that are well-researched (ahem).  He was not a fan of Mets blogs written by people who speak negatively of the team and its operations without backing up their claims.

He then posed for one photo with a certain member of the Studious Metsimus staff.  Upon taking the photo, he gulped and said "I'm sure this is going to go viral."

The Studious Metsimus staff would like to thank Sandy Alderson and his Super Best Friends for sharing part of their evening with the fans.  Now it's up to them to put together a team we can all be thankful for.

Pros And Cons For Signing Michael Bourn

So far this off-season, three outfielders have said their final goodbyes to the Mets.  Jason Bay took his strikeouts and pop-ups to Seattle.  Andres Torres left in search of a ring in San Francisco.  And my wife's ass is now on new Cubs outfielder Scott Hairston's Wikipedia page.  It goes without saying that the Mets are in serious need of some outfield help.

With Justin Upton joining brother B.J. and second baseman Dan Uggla in Atlanta to form the Underachieving U's (quick, contact Ugueth Urbina's agent - Urbina's out of jail and needs a place to fail!), the Mets have now set their sights on former Braves outfielder Michael Bourn.  His acquisition would instantly give the Mets a proven major league outfielder.  It would also give the Mets a number of problems.

Here are three pros and three cons that have to be considered by Sandy Alderson in a potential signing of free agent outfielder Michael Bourn:

Goodbye Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Scott Hairston.  Hello, Michael Bourn?

Pros:

1)  Michael Bourn would instantly give the Mets a legitimate stolen base threat.  In 2011, both Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan surpassed the 30-steal mark.  Last year, David Wright led the team with only 15 thefts.  As a team, the Mets' 79 stolen bases in 2012 marked the first time they failed to steal 100 bases since the Art Howe era.  In addition, no Met has stolen 40 bases in a season since Reyes swiped 56 bags in 2008, the same year Michael Bourn began his current streak of five straight 40+ steal seasons.

2)  The Mets have only had two outfielders win a Gold Glove Award.  Tommie Agee was the first in 1970 and Carlos Beltran won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2006 to 2008.  Bourn has a Gold Glove pedigree, taking home the hardware in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the Houston Astros.  It should be noted that Houston's Minute Maid Park has one of the most spacious and trickiest center fields in baseball, with Tal's Hill, a flagpole and various outfield wall angles to contend with.

3)  Lucas Duda is pegged to be a corner outfielder.  That's bumbling, stumbling, "I can't move furniture without injuring myself" Lucas Duda.  How bad is Duda in the outfield?  Let's just say George "The Stork" Theodore shakes his head whenever he sees Duda chasing a fly ball.  In other words, the Mets desperately need an outfielder that can cover all the ground that Lucas Duda won't.  That's where Michael Bourn will help the team the most.

Citi Field might see lots of this if the pros outweigh the cons.

Cons:

1)  For a leadoff hitter, Bourn doesn't have the most impressive on-base percentage.  He has compiled a .350 on-base percentage just once in six full seasons in the majors and has maintained a .339 career OBP.  He also averages nearly 2½ strikeouts for every walk he draws, a number that is far too high for a player who is expected to be a table setter at the top of the lineup.

2)  In 2011, Bourn batted .294 with 61 stolen bases and 140 strikeouts in 656 at-bats.  Last season, Bourn's average dropped to .274 and he only swiped 42 bases.  His strikeouts also increased to a career-high 155 while his at-bat total shrank to 624.  Although he stole 19 fewer bases in 2012, Bourn still led the majors by being caught stealing 13 times.

3)  Michael Bourn has been an All-Star and a Gold Glove winner because of his legs.  But all of his accolades and stolen base totals were achieved while Bourn was in his 20s.  Bourn is now running on 30-year-old legs.  As shown above, it has become easier to throw him out on the basepaths, and Bourn is also taking off fewer times after reaching base.  His natural decrease in speed will eventually affect him in center field as well, as fly balls he used to track down with ease can now potentially elude his glove.

A quick strike by Sandy Alderson might lead to quick strikeouts by Michael Bourn.

Every player has pros and cons.  Michael Bourn is no exception.  But with the Mets trying to build a contending team without sacrificing their future, every pro and every con has to be considered before making any player decision, including whether or not Bourn is worth the potential loss of a first-round draft pick.

Michael Bourn is clearly an above-average centerfielder.  But is he an eight-figure a year player, especially now that he's on the wrong side of age 30?  Bourn also saw decreases in his stolen base total, as well as a lower batting average and higher strikeout rate.  Is his play in 2012 the sign of a decline or was it just a blip on an otherwise successful career chart?

Clearly, the Mets cannot go into the 2013 season with an outfield of Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter.  But is Michael Bourn worth the money he'll be seeking to play at Citi Field?  Is he the short-term answer that will lead to long-term success?  It's certainly going to be an interesting couple of weeks for Sandy Alderson as he weighs all the pros and cons of a potential Michael Bourn signing.