The Magic Fortune Cookie Predicts the 2019 Mets Season

Last season, the Mets produced a Cy Young Award recipient in Jacob deGrom.  They also saw Zack Wheeler finally turning the corner and Noah Syndergaard emerging victorious in 13 of his 17 decisions.  And that's not to mention Michael Conforto setting career highs in home runs and RBI, Jeff McNeil continuing to rake at sea level after tearing up the Pacific Coast League and Brandon Nimmo reaching base in over 40% of his plate appearances, all while making a good case to play Guy Smiley in a live action Sesame Street movie.

What did all this individual success get them?  Just a measly 77-85 record and a fourth place finish for the sixth time in the Citi Field era.

But new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen insists that this year's Mets will be different than the previous two seasons.  This year's squad has All-Stars galore in new additions Robinson Canó, Edwin Díaz and Wilson Ramos.  Throw in Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (when his boo boo heals) and the greatest first baseman in Mets history who still hasn't played a game at the major league level, Pete Alonso, and the Mets should easily tack on a few wins to last year's total, especially if none of their games against Derek Jeter's Marlins are postponed and not made up.

Of course, I'm not an expert on anything.  But I do know a good Mets prognosticator when I see one.  That's why, back by popular demand, I give you our resident Studious Metsimus soothsayer.  Please put your hands together for the one and only Magic Fortune Cookie.

Why would you say that?  I just paid you a compliment and if people want to applaud you for being good at what you do, you shouldn't tell them not to do so.

Because you're a fortune cookie.  Got it.  Well, I think you're great.  Except when you're insulting me.  Which I'm sure you won't be doing this time around, right?

I'll try to not ask silly questions then.  Let's begin.  How do you feel about Jacob deGrom finally being given the contract extension that every big leaguer and their mothers were getting this off-season?

Wait, what?  What kind of answer is that?  That has nothing to do with my question.

Well, you certainly did that.  Now can you answer my question?  And please leave the insults back at the restaurant.

Thank you for your honest response.  And why do you think it needed to be done?  Were you afraid he'd take a dip in the free agent waters after the 2020 campaign without the extension?

Moving on to his fellow moundsman, do you feel Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler will ever put up a season similar to the one deGrom completed last year?  And if so, which one has the potential to parlay such a season into a similar nine-figure deal with the team?

And how can you be so certain it's Thor and not Wheeler who gets the big payday from the team?

It most certainly isn't.  Moving on to the bullpen, is the one-two punch of Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz going to mean lights out for the opposition if the Mets have the lead through seven innings?

Hate to break it to you, but the 2010 team wasn't very good.  Not only that, but they didn't really have an eighth inning guy.  I mean, nearly half of Fernando Nieve's relief appearances that year came in the eighth inning and his ERA was an even 6.00.

Well, that was an unfortunate and embarrassing incident in club history.  Speaking of unfortunate and embarrassing, what do you think about the Wilpons' decision to finally have a Tom Seaver statue at Citi Field, announcing the news after his family revealed that he was retiring from the public life and would not be able to join his 1969 teammates for their 50th anniversary reunion at the ballpark?

I can understand your feelings for Seaver, but why do you feel happy for the men who caught Seaver in 1969?

Travis d'Arnaud probably won't be pleased to find out that you believe a couple of septuagenarians and an octogenarian are currently better equipped to handle the team's backup catcher's position.

Fair point.  Let's continue talking about up-the-middle players.  Why do you think Fred Wilpon agreed to take on the contract of Robinson Canó?  He's usually allergic to spending money.  Why did he change his ways for Canó?

I don't get it.

Oh, now I get it.  Papa Smirk was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan growing up.

Har-de-har-har.  Let's move on to the outfield.  Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo had strong seasons in 2018.  But teams need three outfielders.  Who will see the bulk of the playing time as the team's third outfielder?

Uh, you do know that Céspedes will start the season on the injured list and may not play until very late in the season, if he plays at all, right?

I suppose that could happen.  At least you didn't say Dominic Smith, so I can breathe a sigh of relief there.  And while I'm on the topic of first basemen, what numbers do you think Pete Alonso will produce at the position?

That's not very impressive.  Loney and González combined for just 15 HR and 60 RBI during their time with the Mets.  Pretty much any first baseman can produce those numbers over a full season.

That's promising news indeed!  Next-to-last question.  Do you think new hitting coach Chili Davis will help the team improve their putrid .234 team batting average, which was the Mets' lowest mark since the 1972 campaign?

Wait, you're not a sportswriter.  How does a fortune cookie have sources?

That was awful.

Your predictions might be good, but your jokes - for a fortune cookie - are a little stale.

Fine.  Last question.  What do you think the Mets' final record will be and where will they finish in the National League East?

And here I was, thinking the Mets had improved their team enough to make it into October.

Well, I oughta...

On that note, I'd like to thank the Magic Fortune Cookie for doing the best it could at making difficult predictions about an unpredictable team.  I'd also like to thank myself for exhibiting the self-control needed not to break open the fortune cookie every time it insulted me.  There's only so much a non-sleep inducing blogger can take.

Until next time, I hope you enjoy Opening Day, the 1969 reunion weekend and the rest of the season.  And remember, if the Mets purchase the contract of Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the Long Island Ducks, we're all in trouble.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  Prior to last year's hiring of the Magic Fortune Cookie, it was the Magic 8-Ball that was making predictions for Studious Metsimus, doing its job every season since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the eight seasons it was on the Studious Metsimus payroll from 2010 to 2017, and what the Magic Fortune Cookie said in its debut in 2018, please click on the links below:

2018 Magic Fortune Cookie Predictions

2017 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2016 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

It's Early, But The Mets Offense Has Been Offensive

Earlier this morning, the MetsBlog Twitter account delivered this yummy bit of somewhat fictional information to its tens of thousands of followers.

Although the .196 team batting average is correct, the team had actually hit two homers during the season's first five games, with David Wright and John Mayberry connecting off Braves starter Eric Stults on back-to-back pitches during Friday night's game.

But perhaps the lack of extra-base hits produced by the Mets during the first week of the new season confused the fact checkers at MetsBlog.  After all, with just four extra-base hits in five games, the Mets are dead last in the majors in that category.  Let's put the anemic offense into perspective.

New York has 32 hits this season.  That's just four more safeties than the Colorado Rockies have extra-base hits.  The N.L. West leaders have hit 21 doubles and seven homers through their first five contests.

Speaking of the Rockies, their pitchers have accounted for two of their league-leading 21 doubles, as starting pitchers Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Matzek have both ripped two-baggers during the season's first week.  Therefore, Colorado's pitchers have produced more doubles than the entire Mets team, as Lucas Duda is the only Met to stroke a double so far in 2015.

As previously mentioned, the Mets have four extra-base hits this season.  How anemic is that?  Let me count the ways.

1. The Detroit Tigers have as many triples as the Mets have extra-base hits.
2. There are 15 players in baseball with as many or more extra-base hits than the entire Mets team.
3. Nineteen of the other 29 teams have as many homers as the Mets have extra-base hits.

No extra-base production means no slugging percentage, and the Mets are dead last in the majors with a .252 slugging percentage.  New York is one of just three teams in baseball with a higher on-base percentage (.264) than slugging percentage.  The other two teams are the Miami Marlins (.285 OBP, .259 SLG) and the Minnesota Twins (.258 OBP, .256 SLG).  It should be noted that the Marlins and Twins are tied for the worst record in baseball, as both teams are 1-4.

The Mets have more bearded players than they have extra-base hits.  (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

If the Mets offense is not going to produce, then the onus rests on the starting pitchers to keep the team's opponents off the scoreboard.  But even the starting pitchers aren't going very deep during the first week of the season.  The Mets are one of three teams who have not yet had one of its starters pitch into the seventh inning this year, joining the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees.  And why are Mets starters not going deeper into games?  Some of it is ineffectiveness (see Niese, Jon and Gee, Dillon) and some of it is because of an innings limit (see Knight, Dark).  But another reason why the starters have not pitched past the sixth inning is because the team has needed to pinch-hit for them earlier in games because the offense has not been effective.

On Opening Day, Bartolo Colon was cruising, allowing one run on three hits in six innings.  But with the Mets holding on to a slim 2-1 lead in the top of the seventh, manager Terry Collins replaced Colon with pinch-hitter Kirk Nieuwenhuis, even though Colon had only thrown 86 pitches to that point.  Nieuwenhuis failed to drive in Travis d'Arnaud, who had hit a triple two batters earlier, and Colon was out of the game.

Two nights later, it was Jacob deGrom's turn to be taken out of the game for a pinch-hitter.  DeGrom had thrown just 92 pitches through six innings, shutting down the Nationals after allowing a two-run homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the first inning.  But deGrom was trailing by a run when he was due to bat in the seventh.  Once again, Collins pinch-hit Nieuwenhuis for his starting pitcher and the Mets failed to score.

Both Colon and deGrom could have pitched into the seventh inning had the Mets been more productive with their bats.  But they weren't.  And because of that, the bullpen has gotten a lot of early work and two starters have gotten early showers.

Look, I know it's only five games.  I also know it's very possible the Mets might hit the stitches off the ball over their next five games and this blog post will be moot.  But it's just frustrating that the lineup looked halfway decent coming into the season and they're struggling to produce a slugging percentage that resembles a typical batting average.

Mario Mendoza, whose name is so synonymous with a low batting average that a .200 hitter is said to be at the Mendoza Line - never mind that Mendoza actually had a .215 lifetime batting average - would look at the 2015 Mets and shake his head in disgust.  That's what happens when an entire team can only muster a .196 batting average.  And it's not just the lack of hits that would upset Mendoza.  It's the lack of long hits.  The Mets' .252 slugging percentage is also lower than Mendoza's .262 career mark.

All you have to know about the early season offensive production of the 2015 Mets is this.  In last night's game, the Atlanta Braves produced three doubles and one triple in the sixth inning.  The Braves' extra-base hit production in that one inning matched the total number of extra-base hits produced by the Mets in their first five games combined.

The offense is doing just enough to offend and not enough to contend.  Let's hope "it's still early" doesn't turn into "it's getting late" for the team's lumber to awaken from its slumber.

This is what most Mets hitters have looked like in 2015.  (Adam Hunger/USA TODAY)

Daniel Murphy's Fielding Cycle and Kirk Nieuwenhuis' Offensive Outburst

On Friday night, the Mets hammered the Milwaukee Brewers, defeating them by the final score of 12-5.  The Bad News Brewers committed three errors on the field and a number of mental errors on the bases.  Despite the Brew Crew's valiant effort to become the butt of David Letterman's next Top Ten list, it was two Mets players who really stood out.  One went 0-for-6 but took part in a fielding oddity, while the other reached base all six times he came up to the plate, something very few Mets had ever accomplished.

Daniel Murphy did not have a good night at the dish, going hitless in six plate appearances on a night the Mets collected 14 hits.  But he did make up for it on the field, especially after committing what appeared to be a costly error in the first inning.

In the second inning, with the Mets holding a 5-2 lead, pitcher Zack Wheeler got his Brewers' counterpart Johnny Hellweg to hit a ground ball to Murphy.  Murphy threw out Hellweg at first base to end the inning.

One inning later, Murphy was involved in a huge play, one that helped the Mets maintain their three-run lead.  With Norichika Aoki on third base and Carlos Gomez on first, the Brewers attempted a double steal.  But Murphy wisely cut off catcher John Buck's throw to second and fired a strike back to Buck, who tagged out Aoki as he was trying to score.  Murphy's heads-up assist kept the Brewers off the scoreboard in the third.

Murphy's defensive acumen was showcased in the seventh inning, when he participated in two consecutive key plays.  With the Mets holding on to an 8-4 lead, Aoki led off the inning with a single off reliever Greg Burke.  The next batter, Jean Segura, then hit a grounder to Murphy, who threw out Aoki at second base.  Carlos Gomez then followed with a long fly ball to deep center that bounced off the wall.  Segura scored easily to cut the Mets' lead to three.  But Murphy, after taking the relay throw from centerfielder Juan Lagares, threw a laser to third baseman David Wright, who placed the tag on the sliding Gomez for the second out of the inning.

So did you notice what Murphy did?  He threw out Johnny Hellweg at first base, Norichika Aoki at home plate, Aoki again at second base, and Carlos Gomez at third base.  Murphy may not have gotten a hit at the plate, but he was a big hit on the field, collecting a rare "fielding cycle" by throwing out runners at every base.  No records on fielding cycles are kept (after all, I just created the term), but it must be a rarity and is certainly an oddity.

Speaking of rarities, Mets' rightfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis also had a wonderful game at the plate.  Nieuwenhuis had six plate appearances and reached base in every one of them, collecting four hits and two walks.  He also stole a base, scored three runs and had a career-high five RBI.

In reaching base six times, Nieuwenhuis accomplished a feat that hadn't been done by a Met in 13 seasons.  The last Met to reach base six times in a nine-inning game was Mike Piazza, who went 2-for-6 with four walks in a 12-8 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on May 27, 2000.  That came less than a year after Edgardo Alfonzo also reached base six times in a nine-inning game against the Houston Astros, although Alfonzo collected six hits in his special game.

Prior to last night, only three Mets had ever had a game in which they collected four hits, three runs, five RBI and a stolen base.  The first Met to do so was Claudell Washington, who went 4-for-5 with three runs, five RBI and a steal against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 22, 1980.  Seven years later, Darryl Strawberry torched the Chicago Cubs for four hits, five runs, five RBI and threw in a stolen base for good measure on August 16, 1987 - the same game in which the Mets scored a team record 23 runs.  Finally, David Wright joined the club on August 10, 2005, when he lit up Padres pitchers for four hits, three runs, six RBI and a steal.  But none of those players reached base six times in their memorable games.  Washington and Wright reached base four times, while Strawberry was a baserunner five times.  Nieuwenhuis is now the fourth player in this exclusive club, and the only one who reached base six times in his club-making effort.

The Mets had a number of contributors in Friday night's 12-5 victory over the Brewers.  Zack Wheeler got out of a one-out, bases loaded jam in the fifth inning to qualify for the victory.  Ike Davis, in his first game back from his one-month Vegas vacation, went 3-for-5 with two runs scored and two RBI.  Eric Young, Jr. collected two hits, scored three runs and stole a base as the Mets' table setter.  And Juan Lagares continued to contribute defensively while recording his first three-RBI game in the majors.

All of those players had outstanding games against Milwaukee.  But Daniel Murphy and Kirk Nieuwenhuis had performances that had rarely, if ever, been seen before by a player wearing a Mets uniform.  As the old saying goes, if you watch this game long enough, you may see something you've never seen before.  With their performances on the field last night, Daniel Murphy and Kirk Nieuwenhuis certainly did their part to make that statement true.

Celebrating Pi Day - Studious Metsimus Style!

Happy π Day, everyone!  For those of you who do not know what that squiggly symbol is, it's the Greek letter "pi".  Math geeks such as myself know that in geometry, pi is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter.  In numbers, the value of this constant is approximately 3.14, or 3.14159265359 if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

Since today is 3/14, that makes today Pi Day.  (Get it?  Just say you do so we can move on.)  As a lover of all things statistical and mathematical, I decided to have some fun with today's celebration of Pi Day by coming up with Mets players who have pi in their eyes - and it has nothing to do with Justin Turner sneaking up behind them.

It's always a good time for pie ... and Pi!

Three pitchers have posted a 3.14 career ERA as Mets.  Those three "pi"-tchers are:

• Sid Fernandez (1984-93): 553 earned runs in 1,584⅔ innings.
• Willie Blair (1998): 10 earned runs in 28⅔ innings.
• Mike Hampton (2000): 76 earned runs in 217⅔ innings.

No pitcher has ever had a .314 winning percentage as a Met.  But four pitchers came painfully close, as Willard Hunter (1962, 1964), Randy Jones (1981-82) and Shawn Estes (2002) finished their Met careers with a .308 winning percentage, while Ray Burris (1979-80) and Frank Tanana (1993) were slightly better at .318.

Turk Wendell once pitched in nine consecutive games for the Mets, but had he pitched 1⅓ more innings, he would have finished his Met career with exactly 314 innings pitched.  Similarly, no Met has ever pitched in exactly 314 games, but if Bobby Parnell appears in exactly 65 games in 2013, he will go into the 2013-14 offseason with 314 pitching appearances as a Met.

Speaking of the Mets' closer-in-waiting, should Parnell make those 65 appearances, while pitching exactly 57⅔ innings and striking out 79 batters, he would win the Triple Crown of Pi, as he would finish the year with 314 lifetime innings pitched and 314 strikeouts, to go with his 314 games pitched.

And what about the hitters, you ask?  Well, ask and ye shall receive.

John Olerud has the highest career batting average of any Mets player (minimum 2,000 plate appearances), collecting 524 hits in 1,662 at-bats.  But if the official scorer had changed two of his hits to errors, Olerud would have finished his career with a .314 batting average as a Met.  I'm sure no one except pi enthusiasts are complaining about his .315 average while wearing orange and blue.

Remember Larry Elliot and Bill Spiers?  No?  Well, they both finished their Met careers with a .314 on-base percentage.  Elliot achieved his relatively low OBP from 1964 to 1966, while Spiers was fortunate to have been with the Mets in 1995 and not a decade and a half later when Sandy Alderson would have chastised him for not taking more pitches.

If Bill Spiers had fought to get on base as hard as he fought this fan on the field, perhaps he would have had a higher OBP.

Rey Ordoñez (.310) and Buddy Harrelson (.287) both had notoriously low slugging percentages.  But only Billy Cowan finished his Mets career with a .314 slugging percentage.  Almost half (13) of his 28 hits as a Met went for extra bases, which usually translates to a high slugging percentage.  Of course, having a .179 overall batting average can tend to keep a slugging percentage down.  (Ordoñez and Harrelson hit like batting champions compared to Cowan.)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jerry Grote have almost nothing in common.  But a quick look at their cumulative stats reveals their one commonality.  No Met hitter has ever collected exactly 314 doubles, 314 homers, 314 RBIs, 314 stolen bases, 314 walks or 314 strikeouts.  But Nieuwenhuis currently has exactly 314 plate appearances as a Met while Grote scored 314 runs for New York.  They are the only two players in Mets history to have a "314" under any of the cumulative stats.


Okay, kids.  That's it for your Pi Day lesson.  Let's recap what we learned today:

• Sid Fernandez was really good for a really long time.
• Shawn Estes couldn't win and couldn't hit Roger Clemens with a pitch.
• Bobby Parnell could be living the Life of Pi after this season.
• John Olerud didn't need Bobby Bonilla to call the official scorer to change an error to a hit.
• Larry Elliot and Bill Spiers would have made Sandy Alderson angry.
• Billy Cowan couldn't hit his weight as a Met.
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis has as many plate appearances as he has vowels in his last name.

I hope you were able to celebrate Pi Day responsibly with your friends and family.  Now if only the Mets could win 3.14 games for every game they lose this season, then we'd all have a good reason to celebrate.

Happy π Day!

Why Collin Cowgill Needs To Start

So far this offseason, the Mets have parted ways with Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Scott Hairston.  They also tried and failed to sign Michael Bourn, who chose to sign a multi-year deal with the Cleveland Indians.  To say the Mets are going to have a hodgepodge outfield in 2013 would be a serious understatement.

Going into March, the only outfielder assured of an everyday job is Lucas Duda, who's swinging and missing in spring training as if the pitcher was throwing furniture at him.  The other two outfield spots will be split between Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Marlon Byrd and Collin Cowgill.  Basically, the Mets are holding open tryouts for two-thirds of their outfield, with two right-handed hitters and two lefties battling it out for outfield supremacy.

All four players have their reasons for starting.  But I believe one player should start before the others, regardless of the position he ends up getting.

Collin Cowgill photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Collin Cowgill has played 423 games in the minor leagues, which is approximately three full seasons worth of games.  In that time, he has an impressive .291/.371/.470 slash line.  Cowgill has amassed 100 doubles, 22 triples, 51 homers and 80 stolen bases since he played his first professional game in 2008.  He has also been an exceptional defensive outfielder, racking up 44 assists while committing only 18 errors in five minor league seasons.

Cowgill's time in the majors has been limited, as he indulged in a cup of coffee with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011 and had a refill with the Oakland A's in 2012.  Between the two stints, he has collected 196 at-bats, batting .255 with five doubles, two homers, 18 RBIs, 18 runs scored and seven stolen bases.  But a closer look at the numbers reveals that Cowgill is not at all suited to coming off the bench.

In 25 career games off the bench, Cowgill has racked up a total of three hits.  Three might be a magic number to some, but it's downright tragic when that number represents a player's hit total off the bench in parts of two seasons.  I mean, Jordany Valdespin had two more HOME RUNS off the bench in 2012 than Cowgill had BASE HITS in 2011 and 2012 combined.  However, as a starting player, Cowgill has been much more effective.

In his first go-round in the majors in 2011, Cowgill started 21 games and batted .250 (19-for-76) with three doubles, one homer and nine RBIs.  Last season, he earned more starts and showed great improvement, raising his batting average to .283 in 28 starts.  He also showed more patience at the plate, as evidenced by his .351 on-base percentage in his starts.  (Cowgill had a .321 OBP as a starter in 2011.)

Let's consider Cowgill's career batting average and on-base percentage as a starter and bench player and compare them to those of the Mets' other three outfield candidates:

• Collin Cowgill:       .250/.321 (as a starter); .188/.188 (off the bench)
• Mike Baxter:          .232/.332 (as a starter); .321/.418 (off the bench)
• Marlon Byrd:         .278/.335 (as a starter); .272/.351 (off the bench)
• K. Nieuwenhuis:    .255/.316 (as a starter); .217/.308 (off the bench)

Going by those numbers, it would appear as if Cowgill and Nieuwenhuis should get the bulk of the starts, saving Baxter and Byrd as the top left-handed and right-handed pinch hitters, respectively.

Terry Collins will have to consider all the variables when it comes to filling out his lineup card every day.  Will he need a better defensive outfield?  Does he need an extra lefty in the lineup?  What about an extra right-handed hitter?

Any one of the four outfielders not named Duda can get the bulk of the starts in center field or right field.  But of the four, Collin Cowgill should be the one who remains on the bench the least.  Not only is he an exciting player who can hit, run and field, but he's most valuable when his name is in the starting lineup.

If Collin Cowgill can continue to produce as a starting player as he has in the past, then Mets fans will be seeing a lot of him at Citi Field in 2013.

Pros And Cons For Signing Michael Bourn

So far this off-season, three outfielders have said their final goodbyes to the Mets.  Jason Bay took his strikeouts and pop-ups to Seattle.  Andres Torres left in search of a ring in San Francisco.  And my wife's ass is now on new Cubs outfielder Scott Hairston's Wikipedia page.  It goes without saying that the Mets are in serious need of some outfield help.

With Justin Upton joining brother B.J. and second baseman Dan Uggla in Atlanta to form the Underachieving U's (quick, contact Ugueth Urbina's agent - Urbina's out of jail and needs a place to fail!), the Mets have now set their sights on former Braves outfielder Michael Bourn.  His acquisition would instantly give the Mets a proven major league outfielder.  It would also give the Mets a number of problems.

Here are three pros and three cons that have to be considered by Sandy Alderson in a potential signing of free agent outfielder Michael Bourn:

Goodbye Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Scott Hairston.  Hello, Michael Bourn?

Pros:

1)  Michael Bourn would instantly give the Mets a legitimate stolen base threat.  In 2011, both Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan surpassed the 30-steal mark.  Last year, David Wright led the team with only 15 thefts.  As a team, the Mets' 79 stolen bases in 2012 marked the first time they failed to steal 100 bases since the Art Howe era.  In addition, no Met has stolen 40 bases in a season since Reyes swiped 56 bags in 2008, the same year Michael Bourn began his current streak of five straight 40+ steal seasons.

2)  The Mets have only had two outfielders win a Gold Glove Award.  Tommie Agee was the first in 1970 and Carlos Beltran won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2006 to 2008.  Bourn has a Gold Glove pedigree, taking home the hardware in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the Houston Astros.  It should be noted that Houston's Minute Maid Park has one of the most spacious and trickiest center fields in baseball, with Tal's Hill, a flagpole and various outfield wall angles to contend with.

3)  Lucas Duda is pegged to be a corner outfielder.  That's bumbling, stumbling, "I can't move furniture without injuring myself" Lucas Duda.  How bad is Duda in the outfield?  Let's just say George "The Stork" Theodore shakes his head whenever he sees Duda chasing a fly ball.  In other words, the Mets desperately need an outfielder that can cover all the ground that Lucas Duda won't.  That's where Michael Bourn will help the team the most.

Citi Field might see lots of this if the pros outweigh the cons.

Cons:

1)  For a leadoff hitter, Bourn doesn't have the most impressive on-base percentage.  He has compiled a .350 on-base percentage just once in six full seasons in the majors and has maintained a .339 career OBP.  He also averages nearly 2½ strikeouts for every walk he draws, a number that is far too high for a player who is expected to be a table setter at the top of the lineup.

2)  In 2011, Bourn batted .294 with 61 stolen bases and 140 strikeouts in 656 at-bats.  Last season, Bourn's average dropped to .274 and he only swiped 42 bases.  His strikeouts also increased to a career-high 155 while his at-bat total shrank to 624.  Although he stole 19 fewer bases in 2012, Bourn still led the majors by being caught stealing 13 times.

3)  Michael Bourn has been an All-Star and a Gold Glove winner because of his legs.  But all of his accolades and stolen base totals were achieved while Bourn was in his 20s.  Bourn is now running on 30-year-old legs.  As shown above, it has become easier to throw him out on the basepaths, and Bourn is also taking off fewer times after reaching base.  His natural decrease in speed will eventually affect him in center field as well, as fly balls he used to track down with ease can now potentially elude his glove.

A quick strike by Sandy Alderson might lead to quick strikeouts by Michael Bourn.

Every player has pros and cons.  Michael Bourn is no exception.  But with the Mets trying to build a contending team without sacrificing their future, every pro and every con has to be considered before making any player decision, including whether or not Bourn is worth the potential loss of a first-round draft pick.

Michael Bourn is clearly an above-average centerfielder.  But is he an eight-figure a year player, especially now that he's on the wrong side of age 30?  Bourn also saw decreases in his stolen base total, as well as a lower batting average and higher strikeout rate.  Is his play in 2012 the sign of a decline or was it just a blip on an otherwise successful career chart?

Clearly, the Mets cannot go into the 2013 season with an outfield of Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter.  But is Michael Bourn worth the money he'll be seeking to play at Citi Field?  Is he the short-term answer that will lead to long-term success?  It's certainly going to be an interesting couple of weeks for Sandy Alderson as he weighs all the pros and cons of a potential Michael Bourn signing.

R.A. Dickey Goes From Cy Young To C-Ya

On June 1, 2012, Gary Cohen uttered the now-famous three-word sentence, "it has happened", after Johan Santana recorded the final out of the first no-hitter in Mets history.  Those words can now be repeated, although this time the sentiment is a little bit different.

After days of speculation and hours of hammering out names and details, Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey has been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays.  It has happened.

R.A. Dickey will be taking his celebrity and his knuckleball north of the border in 2013.

Dickey will now be moving to the American League East, a division he has dominated since his renaissance with the Mets began in 2010.  Over the past three seasons, Dickey has gone 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings against his new division rivals.  He also has a sparkling 0.74 WHIP and 45 strikeouts against the Orioles, Rays and Yankees (he never faced the Red Sox as a member of the Mets).

In return, the Mets acquired Toronto's top offensive prospect in catcher Travis d'Arnaud.  The Mets also received Toronto's top pitching prospect (Noah Syndergaard) and a second catcher, veteran John Buck.  In addition to Dickey, the Blue Jays received the man who was behind the plate on the night "it has happened" happened.  Josh Thole, who has plenty of experience catching Dickey's knuckleball, is now a Blue Jay as well, after spending the last four seasons with the Mets.  Two other mid-level prospects were swapped as well, with one going to Toronto and one coming to New York.

Dickey's departure is reminiscent of Frank Viola, but in reverse.  Viola won the Cy Young Award in 1988 as a member of the Minnesota Twins, then was traded to New York the following season.  In his first full year as a Met (1990), Viola won 20 games.  Dickey did it in reverse, winning 20 games in his last full year as a Met.  Instead of being traded to the Mets after winning the Cy Young, Dickey was dealt away from the team following his award-winning campaign.

Since Travis d'Arnaud is coming off a knee injury that limited him to 67 games at AAA-Las Vegas in 2012 (his only games above the AA level), it wouldn't come as a surprise if he began the season at Las Vegas (which is now a Mets triple-A affiliate) in 2013, with John Buck becoming this decade's Rey Sanchez.  Sanchez began the 2003 season as the Mets' shortstop before Jose Reyes was called up in June to take over the position.  Similarly, Buck would be the stopgap at catcher until d'Arnaud was deemed ready for big league action behind the plate.

Noah Syndergaard (who, coupled with Kirk Nieuwenhuis, would represent the final two names in any 2013 Mets spelling bee) would likely begin the 2013 season at AA-Binghamton.  In three professional seasons, Syndergaard has never pitched above the single-A level.  However, in 45 appearances (35 starts), he has been dominant, pitching to the tune of a 2.35 ERA and 1.085 WHIP.  He has also held opposing batters to a .211 batting average while striking out 196 batters in 176 innings.

R.A. Dickey was a beloved figure in Mets history.  But a trade for two top prospects was too hard to pass up, especially when those players could become major contributors for the Mets long after Dickey has retired from baseball.

Cy Young Award or not, the Mets did the right thing to trade Dickey when his value was at its highest.  Dickey was part of the team's past and present.  Syndergaard and d'Arnaud are part of the team's future, a future that looks much brighter now.

It's okay to be sad today.  Because if these prospects pan out, there will be plenty of happiness at Citi Field in the near future.  And then there will be plenty more of the good "it has happened" moments that we can all celebrate together.

Song Parody: Centerfield

So far this off-season, Mets outfielders are leaving New York faster than Vince Coleman can light a firecracker.  First, we saw the departure of Jason Bay, who recently signed a one-year deal with the Seattle Mariners.  Today we didn't see a Bay leave, but we did see an outfielder leave one Bay for another, as centerfielder Andres Torres was spotted leaving on a jet plane flying over Flushing Bay on his way to the west coast and his old haunts in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Torres signed a one-year deal worth $2 million to return to the Giants, the team that traded him to New York last off-season for Angel Pagan.  Torres will become Pagan's neighbor in the outfield, playing left field alongside the newest member of the "former Mets who won a World Series ring after leaving New York" club.

With two-thirds of the Mets' 2012 outfield now playing out west and part of the remaining third (Scott Hairston) considering his options, the outfield is beginning to resemble John Rocker's brain.  Basically, it's empty.  And there's less than four months to go until the curtain rises on the 2013 campaign.

Will the Mets go with their highly flawed current cast of backups and bench players in the outfield?  Will fans clamor for the days of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Derek Bell?  Will Vince Coleman and John Rocker join Mensa?

Those questions will all be answered by April 1, 2013.  (Spoiler alert: Coleman and Rocker were just seen shopping for a "Mensa For Dummies" book.)  For now, please join me as I present to you the latest Studious Metsimus song parody, based on - you guessed it - the lack of outfielders at Citi Field.  I'd like to thank John Fogerty for singing the original version of "Centerfield".  Without him, I would never be able to butcher his lyrics the way Lucas Duda butchers routine pop-ups.  Enjoy!

The season’s done, Sandy’s on the phone to see who he can trade 
To war again with new guys on the field 
He gave the word, Bay’s got a new home - it’s a part of Sandy’s plan
Andres Torres is gone as well, so here’s the deal

Oh, put me in coach – no one else can play today 
Put me in coach – the outfield’s empty at New Shea 
Look at the
Tumbleweeds
In center field

Well, your fielders have to add up to nine – I’m countin’ 'em from the bench 
You got rid of some chumps when Torres and Bay skipped town 
So listen, Sandy, sign Hairston – oh, please don’t let him go 
Don’t save all the dough, it’s time to pay him now

Oh, put me in coach – no one else can play today 
Put me in coach – the outfield’s empty at New Shea 
Look at the
Tumbleweeds 
In center field

Hey!  Who’s got it?  Who’s got it?

Got Lucas Duda, a homegrown Bax, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis too 
You know it’s almost time for den Dekker to arrive 
Who will get the call to defend that wall – what’s our outfield become? 
(CRAP!) Pagan just won after he said goodbye!

Oh, put me in coach – no one else can play today 
Put me in coach – the outfield’s empty at New Shea 
Look at the
Tumbleweeds 
In center field

Oh, put me in coach – no one else can play today 
Put me in coach – the outfield’s empty at New Shea 
Look at the
Tumbleweeds 
In center field

Danger In The Outfield

Although the Mets bullpen was the worst in the majors this year, the top priority for Sandy Alderson this offseason (after resolving the David Wright/R.A. Dickey contract extension issues) should be to improve the outfield.  No Met outfielder has reached 70 RBI in a season since the team moved to Citi Field (Scott Hairston and Lucas Duda tied for the team lead in RBIs by outfielders with 57).  How sad is it that Angel Pagan's 69 RBI in 2010 represent the highest RBI total for a Met outfielder since Shea Stadium closed its doors for good?

Remember in 2000 when everyone said the Mets won the pennant despite having an offensively-challenged outfield?  Well, the trio of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Derek Bell all hit at least 15 HR and drove in a minimum of 60 runs that year.  Believe it or not, that's the last time the Mets had three outfielders reach those numbers in the same season.

Bullpens are unpredictable from year to year.  As bad as the relievers were this year, they could be better than expected next year. But a revolving outfield of Scott Hairston, Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter (and perhaps Andres Torres if he's re-signed) just can't compete with the more powerful outfields in the league.  The Mets need a significant change in the outfield if they want to improve in 2013.

The Mets' competition in the division all have at least one, if not more, solid outfielders.  The Nationals have the best outfield in the NL East, with Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper.  The Braves have 20/20 man Jason Heyward (betcha didn't know Heyward stole 21 bases to go with his 27 HR), while the Phillies have a tremendous outfield prospect in Darin Ruf, whose minor league numbers (.317, 38 HR, 104 RBI) carried over into the majors last September after he was called up (.333, 3 HR, 10 RBI in 12 games with the Phillies).  Even the depleted Marlins have a top slugger in Giancarlo Stanton.  The Mets have the guy whose Wikipedia page proudly features my wife's ass.  And that's only if the Mets can re-sign him.

It's been said that pitching wins championships.  That's true, as the Giants have won two of the last three World Series with a strong pitching corps.  But they had outfielders that came through more often than not.  In 2010, it was Cody Ross, Pat Burrell and Andres Torres (with Torres producing a career year for the Giants).  This past season, the names of the outfielders may have changed, but the productivity did not, as Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco and Hunter Pence all contributed to the Giants' latest title.

The Mets did not have great outfielders when they advanced to the World Series in 2000.  But as a unit, they were more productive than any other outfield the team has put on the field ever since.  It's not a surprise that the Mets have failed to return to the World Series since the days of Agbayani, Payton and Bell.

Assuming the Mets don't trade R.A. Dickey before the beginning of the 2013 season, they'll have a formidable staff.  With Dickey leading the way, followed by the combination of a healthy Johan Santana, the ever-improving Jonathon Niese, the wünderkind Matt Harvey and the return of Dillon Gee (or even Mike Pelfrey if the Mets choose to go that route), starting pitching won't be a problem in 2013.

We know the Mets need to upgrade their bullpen.  But what the Mets truly need are dependable outfielders who are going to be out there 162 games a year.  The rest of the division already has them.  The Mets need to follow suit.  The 2000 pennant winners have been the team's most complete outfield for way too long.

Will Reese Havens Ever Put It Together For The Mets?

In 2008, the Mets had one of their better drafts in recent years.  That year they selected five players who have since made their major league debuts.  With the 18th overall pick, the Mets took Ike Davis, who rewarded them with a 32 HR, 90 RBI campaign in 2012.  They also selected Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3rd round), Josh Satin (6th round), Collin McHugh (18th round) and Chris Schwinden (22nd round).

Nieuwenhuis and McHugh contributed to the team this year and are expected to continue to be a part of the team's future, while Satin and Schwinden may be able to fill in for injured players in 2013.  There was another player who was drafted by the Mets in that year's draft who was expected to be a regular on the major league team by now.  Instead, he's become a regular on the disabled list and has not advanced past AA-Binghamton.  That player is Reese Havens.

Will we ever see Reese Havens wearing this uniform at Citi Field?

David Reese Havens was selected by the Mets in the first round of the 2008 draft, four picks after the team yanked Ike Davis from the amateur pot.  After a stellar final year at the University of South Carolina (.359, 76 runs, 18 HR, 57 RBI in 63 games), Havens was projected to be a power-hitting middle infielder.  But once the Mets drafted Havens, the injuries soon followed.

Havens missed nearly two months of his first professional baseball season with injuries to his elbow and groin.  As a result, he only played in 23 games for the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2008.  The following season, Havens collected 430 plate appearance for the St. Lucie Mets, showing some of his power potential with 19 doubles and 14 homers.  Although he hit .247, he showed great plate discipline with a .361 on-base percentage and only 73 strikeouts.  But over the next two seasons, the injury bug came back to haunt Havens and stunted his development.

In 2010, Havens played in only 32 games for St. Lucie and AA-Binghamton, followed by a 61-game effort for the same two teams in 2011.  When Havens was healthy, he played well, combining to hit .297 with 21 doubles, 15 HR and 47 RBI in those 93 games.  But Havens was rarely healthy, losing time with oblique and back problems.

The 2012 season began with Havens once again on the disabled list with back problems, but he returned to Binghamton in April and played 94 games for the B-Mets.  Despite playing most of the season, he had a poor year at the plate, batting .215 and struck out an alarming 113 times in 325 at-bats.

Reese Havens has been in the Mets' minor league system for five seasons now, but has only appeared in 307 games.  His .253 batting average in the minors has not been impressive, but he has shown outstanding extra-base hit potential (60 doubles, six triples, 42 HR) in what amounts to two major league seasons' worth of games.  He also draws a lot of walks, as evidenced by his .358 career on-base percentage.  But all of this has been accomplished with Havens not having played a single game above the Double-A level.

Yesterday was Reese Havens' 26th birthday.  He will probably play at AAA-Las Vegas in 2013, reaching the top rung of the minor league level for the first time in his sixth professional baseball season.  He is no longer considered a top minor league prospect.  But he is still on the Mets' radar, especially since the team has still not fully committed to Daniel Murphy as their second baseman of the future.

It's quite possible that last year's poor performance at AA-Binghamton could have been because Havens was concealing an injury.  After all, the former first round draft pick was already 25 and wanted to prove to the organization that he could stay on the field for an entire season.  But what if Havens stays healthy in 2013 and continues to hit under .250 while striking out every three at-bats?

The Mets have already given Ike Davis, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Josh Satin, Collin McHugh and Chris Schwinden a shot at the majors.  They've also given Reese Havens every opportunity to become the sixth player from the draft class of 2008 to advance to the big show.  It's up to Havens to stay on the field and produce on it if he wants to show the team that they were right in drafting him alongside a handful of other future major leaguers.  2013 may be his final chance to do so.

Why We Like Kirk Nieuwenhuis Despite All The Ks

Kirk Nieuwenhuis has two Ks in his first name.  Unfortunately, more often than we'd like, he's also had that many Ks on his daily stat sheet.

Nieuwenhuis has seen action in every game the Mets have played since he was called up to the big leagues following the season opener, starting 43 games and coming off the bench in the other 11.  In those 54 games, the Mets' rookie outfielder has struck out 58 times in 177 at-bats, an average of approximately one strikeout every three at-bats.

One whiff every third at-bat is quite high, don't you think?  But it's worse than Ike Davis' strikeout rate (53 K in 171 AB, an average of one K every 3.2 at-bats).  It's also much worse than the strikeout rate posted by David Wright in 2010 when he set the team record for most strikeouts in a season (161 Ks in 587 AB, an average of one K every 3.6 at-bats).

Ike Davis has been booed quite a bit at Citi Field this year, just as David Wright was by a smattering of fans in 2010.  But Kirk Nieuwenhuis hasn't received the boo treatment from fans at all.  Why is that?  A quick look at the numbers will explain it all.

Two years ago, David Wright batted a then-career-low .283, after hitting over .300 in the five campaigns prior to 2010.  Despite driving in 103 runs that season, Wright could have done much more, as shown below:

• Batting average with men on base: .261 (79 strikeouts in 264 at-bats)
• Batting average with the bases loaded: .250 (6 strikeouts in 12 at-bats)
• Batting average with a runner on third, 2 outs: .211 (8 strikeouts in 19 at-bats)

In all three scenarios listed above, Wright hit far below his seasonal average, while striking out at a more prolific pace than he did in other, less pressure-packed situations.  It can be understood why fans booed Wright in 2010, especially since he didn't come through as much as he could and should have.  Ike Davis' woes in 2012 are far worse (see below):

• Batting average with men on base: .181 (29 strikeouts in 94 at-bats)
• Batting average with the bases loaded: .000 (2 strikeouts in 6 at-bats)
• Batting average with a runner on third, 2 outs: .158 (8 strikeouts in 19 at-bats)

That brings us to Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  Yes, he's struck out at a higher rate than David Wright in 2010 and Ike Davis this year.  But when we look at the same numbers we considered for Wright and Davis above, you'll see exactly why his strikeouts are being overlooked.

• Batting average with men on base: .323 (16 strikeouts in 65 at-bats)
• Batting average with the bases loaded: .600 (no strikeouts in 5 at-bats)
• Batting average with a runner on third, 2 outs: .385 (4 strikeouts in 13 at-bats)

In addition to Nieuwenhuis' exceptional numbers in the three scenarios listed above, he is hitting .345 with a .400 on-base percentage when leading off an inning, thereby setting the table for the players behind him.  He's even better in "late and close" situations (baseball-reference.com defines "late and close" as plate appearances in the 7th inning or later in a tie game, one-run game, or with the tying run on deck), batting a whopping .474 and reaching base at a .560 clip.

David Wright heard a few boos in 2010 after every strikeout, just as Ike Davis is hearing now.  But Kirk Nieuwenhuis hasn't heard a negative peep from fans at Citi Field despite having a higher strikeout rate than both Wright and Davis.  And why should he?  Wright and Davis seemed to whiff almost every time the Mets needed them to contribute.  It's been the exact opposite for Nieuwenhuis, as he's made better contact when the stakes have been raised.  Of course, it hasn't hurt that he's also been spectacular defensively.

Its not how often Kirk Nieuwenhuis strikes out; it's when he's doing it.  Or more appropriately, it's when he's NOT doing it.  David Wright and Ike Davis heard boos because they were producing empty outs when the situation didn't call for it.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis is just producing.  Period.  And as long as he does, he will not hear a boo directed toward him at Citi Field.

Mad Men

Jonathon Niese pitched six shutout innings.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis started yet another rally.  Mike Baxter got well-deserved respect as a premier pinch-hitter.  Justin Turner won another battle against Heath Bell.

And the Mets still lost.

After Nieuwenhuis started a two-run inning for the Mets in the fourth inning with a single, Niese continued to pitch shutout ball before being lifted for a pinch-hitter in the seventh.  Ramon Ramirez relieved Niese hoping to protect the lead.

Triple.

Home run.

Game tied at 2.

The Mets regrouped as they have been wont to do during the first month and a half of the season.  Against Marlins' closer Heath Bell in the ninth, the Mets got a one-out double from Daniel Murphy, Doubles Machine.  Two walks later (including an intentional walk to Mike Baxter, who carried a .438 batting average as a pinch-hitter into the at-bat), Justin Turner whacked a double to right to score two runs.  Then Frank Francisco came into the game to save it and give the Mets a series victory.

Triple.

Walk.

Single.

Hit the showers, Frank.

Stop sniffing yourself, Frank.  We all know you stink.

That was all for Armando Benitez-lite.  Frank Francisco was removed from the game by manager Terry Collins, but not before he stopped by home plate umpire Todd Tichenor to wish his mother a Happy Mother's Day.  (At least I thought I heard him say something about Tichenor's mother.)  Manny Acosta was summoned into the game to stop the bleeding but was "Acosta-ed" by the Marlins.

Sacrifice fly.

Tie game.

Pop out.  (I guess you can't put 'em all on base.)

Walk.

Hit by pitch.

Giancarlo Stanton.

Say hello to my little friend.

The Mets will now retreat to Citi Field after a 4-2 road trip against the Phillies and Marlins.  If you had asked me before the season started that the Mets would win four out of six against the two teams expected to compete for the NL East title, I would have been thrilled.  But I'm not.

I'm mad.

Very mad.

Smoke coming out of my ears mad.

Paul LoDuca mad.

Paul LoDuca SMASH!!!

Something has to be done about the bullpen situation.  Sandy Alderson did not have much money to work with during the off-season.  But what money he had, he used to upgrade the bullpen.  That "upgrade"  has now had a part in several late-inning meltdowns.

Both losses to the Marlins this weekend were charged to Frank Francisco.  Prior to Friday night's loss, the Mets' last loss was a 5-4 setback to Arizona on May 4.  That game was lost by Jon Rauch, who allowed three hits, two inherited base runners to score and a run of his own.  What about Ramon Ramirez?  He's allowed 31 base runners (21 hits, 10 walks) in only 19⅓ innings.

Even a certain holdover, wearing Oliver Perez's old No. 46, has pitched like dookie.  (And I'm not talking about Orlando "The Dookie" Hernandez, although I think he'd have better success right now than the current members of the Gasoline Brigade.)  Including today, Manny Acosta has faced 85 batters this year.  Almost half of them (36) have reached base.  Four of them reached base and then continued running around them.  That includes Giancarlo Stanton, who touched Acosta for a game-ending grand slam today.

The Mets have done quite well so far.  That doesn't mean they shouldn't play angry after games like today.  There should be 25 mad men in the dugout tomorrow against Milwaukee.  They should let it be known to each other that losses like today's will no longer be tolerated.  The bullpen must improve.  The team must improve.  They're better than that.  And they should know it.