The Mets Outfield Is Showing Life Without Being Bourn

Remember when the Mets were trying to land Michael Bourn during the offseason?  Bourn decided to take the money and run to Cleveland instead.  So how's that going for him?  Well, his new team is doing well in the American League Central, just three games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers.  But they're not succeeding because of Bourn.  In fact, other than a decent batting average (.291), Bourn's other numbers are far less than what Cleveland bargained for when they signed him.

Earlier this season, Bourn had a short stint on the disabled list, but he has still managed to rack up 306 at-bats.  In those at-bats, he's collected 14 doubles, one triple, four homers and 29 RBI.  He's also scored 43 runs and stolen 13 bases, while striking out 74 times and drawing 20 walks.

Think about this.  Bourn was signed for his defensive prowess (he's won two Gold Gloves) and for his speed.  Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to steal many bases, as well as leg out many doubles and triples.  Yet Bourn is seventh on his own team in doubles (Asdrubal Cabrera has eight more doubles than Bourn even though Bourn has one more at-bat than Cabrera) and five teammates, including backup catcher Yan Gomes, have more triples than Bourn.  Bourn isn't even leading the team in stolen bases.  That honor goes to Jason Kipnis, who has 21 steals in 26 attempts.

And let's look at those stolen base numbers for Bourn.  He has 13 steals in 21 attempts.  In 2011, he led the league in times caught stealing with 14.  But he also stole a league-leading 61 bases that year, which made it easy to overlook the times he was erased on the bases.  Last year, he was once again the caught stealing champion with 13.  He was successful on 42 stolen base attempts, a noticeable decline from his 2011 numbers, but still not something to be worried about.  This year, Bourn has just 13 thefts, which is a significant dropoff.  Despite the drastic decrease in stolen bases, Bourn is still the league leader in caught stealing with eight.  Clearly, he is not the player he once was in the stolen base department, as his success rate has been taking a tremendous hit in 2013.

In addition to stealing bases, a leadoff hitter is supposed to get on base and score runs.  Although Bourn has never been a threat to lead the league in on-base percentage, he has still managed to maintain an OBP above .340 in each of the last four seasons.  This year, despite his .291 batting average, Bourn is only reaching base at a .338 clip, which would be his lowest on-base percentage since 2008.  After averaging 61 walks per season since 2009, including a career-high 70 walks last season, Bourn has only seen ball four 20 times this year in 330 plate appearances.

The combination of his poor stolen base success rate and his inability to draw a walk has limited Bourn to only 43 runs scored, which is tied for fifth-most on the Indians.  Prior to this year, Bourn had surpassed 90 runs scored in three of his last four seasons.  The one year he failed to score 90, he missed the last three weeks of the season due to an oblique injury.  He still managed to score 84 runs in 2010 despite missing 21 games.

So that's what Michael Bourn has done in his first year with the Indians.  Now let's compare his numbers to the ones posted by Mets center fielder Juan Lagares.  You might notice some similarities between the two.

• Bourn: .291/.338/.382, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 43 runs, 13 SB, 74 K, 20 BB, 1.9 WAR
  
• Lagares: .263/.294/.398, 15 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 17 runs, 2 SB, 47 K, 7 BB, 1.9 WAR

Juan Lagares looks better in blue and orange than Michael Bourn, don't you think?

Now what if I told you that Bourn has almost twice as many plate appearances (330) than Lagares has with the Mets (171)?  Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that if Lagares had come to the plate 330 times, his cumulative offensive statistics would be equal to or would surpass many of the numbers posted by Bourn.

There are two things, however, that Bourn has a commanding edge over Lagares.  First, he is more than six years older than Lagares.  Bourn will turn 31 in December, while Lagares won't turn 25 until next April.  And second, Bourn is in the first year of a four-year, $48 million contract.  A vesting option could turn that into a five-year, $60 million deal.  Lagares is playing for the major league mininum salary.

The Mets came close to paying Michael Bourn tens of millions of dollars to play center field for the team until his mid-30s.  Instead, they just handed over the job to a player in his mid-20s whose numbers are rivaling those being put up by Bourn in Cleveland.  The only numbers Lagares is not rivaling Bourn in is age and salary.

When the season began, the Mets were playing musical chairs in the outfield, hoping to find a set of three players that would be around when the music stopped.  With nearly two-thirds of the season complete, the Mets have finally found those three players.  With Eric Young, Jr. and Marlon Byrd flanking him in left field and right field, respectively, Juan Lagares has taken over as the field general in the outfield.  He's done everything that's been asked of him, including playing stellar defense.  That's what the Mets were hoping to get from Michael Bourn before the season started.  It's good to know that the outfield has shown signs of life without ever being Bourn.
 

Bad Outfield? What Bad Outfield?

Mike Baxter and Lucas Duda were supposed to be part of a lousy Mets outfield.  Take that, non-believers!

Prior to the start of the season, the biggest weakness for the Mets was not in the bullpen, but in the outfield.  Lucas Duda was the only player assured of an everyday job in the outfield just one year after his inconsistent play in the field and at the plate got him demoted to the minors.

But less than two weeks into the season, the various outfielders jockeying for playing time have collectively surpassed the low expectations set for them.  Six players have played in the outfield for the Mets through the season's first 11 contests.  Of those six, all but Kirk Nieuwenhuis have played in at least eight games.  Below are those five players' hitting statistics in 2013:

• Lucas Duda (10 games):  .276 average, .655 slugging percentage, 6 runs, 6 RBI, 5 XBH
• Marlon Byrd (10 games):  .270 average, .432 slugging percentage, 5 runs, 7 RBI, 3 XBH
• Mike Baxter (9 games):  .294 average, .455 on-base percentage, 5 runs
• Jordany Valdespin (9 games):  .381 average, .458 on-base percentage, 6 runs, 2 SB
• Collin Cowgill (8 games):  .407 slugging percentage, 4 runs, 6 RBI, 3 XBH

Collectively, the five main outfielders for the Mets have hit .263 with five doubles, two triples, six homers, 20 RBIs, 26 runs scored and three stolen bases through the team's first 11 games.  The fearsome fivesome has also combined to post a .368 on-base percentage and .466 slugging percentage during the Mets' 7-4 start.

There are no Upton brothers in the Mets outfield this season, nor is there a disgruntled Miami Marlin, but there might not need to be.  With the surprising production the team has gotten from Duda, Byrd, Baxter, Valdespin and Cowgill, the Mets have been doing just fine with their jigsaw puzzle outfield.

Perhaps the Mets will need to add a piece here or there to fix whatever problems they encounter during the season.  But as of right now, the outfield is not in need of repairs.  Who would have thought that just two weeks ago?
 

Danger In The Outfield

Although the Mets bullpen was the worst in the majors this year, the top priority for Sandy Alderson this offseason (after resolving the David Wright/R.A. Dickey contract extension issues) should be to improve the outfield.  No Met outfielder has reached 70 RBI in a season since the team moved to Citi Field (Scott Hairston and Lucas Duda tied for the team lead in RBIs by outfielders with 57).  How sad is it that Angel Pagan's 69 RBI in 2010 represent the highest RBI total for a Met outfielder since Shea Stadium closed its doors for good?

Remember in 2000 when everyone said the Mets won the pennant despite having an offensively-challenged outfield?  Well, the trio of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Derek Bell all hit at least 15 HR and drove in a minimum of 60 runs that year.  Believe it or not, that's the last time the Mets had three outfielders reach those numbers in the same season.

Bullpens are unpredictable from year to year.  As bad as the relievers were this year, they could be better than expected next year. But a revolving outfield of Scott Hairston, Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter (and perhaps Andres Torres if he's re-signed) just can't compete with the more powerful outfields in the league.  The Mets need a significant change in the outfield if they want to improve in 2013.

The Mets' competition in the division all have at least one, if not more, solid outfielders.  The Nationals have the best outfield in the NL East, with Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper.  The Braves have 20/20 man Jason Heyward (betcha didn't know Heyward stole 21 bases to go with his 27 HR), while the Phillies have a tremendous outfield prospect in Darin Ruf, whose minor league numbers (.317, 38 HR, 104 RBI) carried over into the majors last September after he was called up (.333, 3 HR, 10 RBI in 12 games with the Phillies).  Even the depleted Marlins have a top slugger in Giancarlo Stanton.  The Mets have the guy whose Wikipedia page proudly features my wife's ass.  And that's only if the Mets can re-sign him.

It's been said that pitching wins championships.  That's true, as the Giants have won two of the last three World Series with a strong pitching corps.  But they had outfielders that came through more often than not.  In 2010, it was Cody Ross, Pat Burrell and Andres Torres (with Torres producing a career year for the Giants).  This past season, the names of the outfielders may have changed, but the productivity did not, as Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco and Hunter Pence all contributed to the Giants' latest title.

The Mets did not have great outfielders when they advanced to the World Series in 2000.  But as a unit, they were more productive than any other outfield the team has put on the field ever since.  It's not a surprise that the Mets have failed to return to the World Series since the days of Agbayani, Payton and Bell.

Assuming the Mets don't trade R.A. Dickey before the beginning of the 2013 season, they'll have a formidable staff.  With Dickey leading the way, followed by the combination of a healthy Johan Santana, the ever-improving Jonathon Niese, the wünderkind Matt Harvey and the return of Dillon Gee (or even Mike Pelfrey if the Mets choose to go that route), starting pitching won't be a problem in 2013.

We know the Mets need to upgrade their bullpen.  But what the Mets truly need are dependable outfielders who are going to be out there 162 games a year.  The rest of the division already has them.  The Mets need to follow suit.  The 2000 pennant winners have been the team's most complete outfield for way too long.

Beltran And Pagan Take Center Stage In The NLCS

Earlier today, the one and only Metstradamus wrote a piece on the last two centerfielders who played regularly for the Mets before 2012.  Those players were Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan.  Neither player helped the Mets reach the World Series.  But now they will both be trying to help their respective teams reach the Fall Classic.

So how do I feel about this bit of news, especially considering that I was a big fan of both players and continued to follow their daily exploits on their current teams?  I'm happy for them, but all I can think about is how they're being successful, while the Mets' current outfield situation is one big, giant clusterfudge.

Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan as Mets, when there was a lot more stability in the team's outfield.

Here's a quick trivia question for you.  Since the Mets moved to Citi Field in 2009, which Met outfielder has collected the most RBIs in a single season?  Was it Carlos Beltran?  No, he was hurt most of the time and never played more than 98 games in a season for the Mets since the team left Shea Stadium.  Was it Jeff Francoeur?  Negative, as he played his way out of Citi Field during the 2010 season and never even reached 100 career RBIs as a Met.  How about Jason Bay?  How about "no"?

Believe it or not, the answer to the trivia question is Angel Pagan.  In 2010, Pagan drove in 69 runs for the Mets, a number that has not been reached by any other Met outfielder over the past four seasons.  The second-highest total belongs to ... you guessed it ... Carlos Beltran, who drove in 66 runs in 2011, playing in his first season as a rightfielder and his last year with the Mets.

With Angel Pagan traded to San Francisco and Carlos Beltran signing a two-year contract with St. Louis, it was a mishmash of mismatched Mets rotating in the outfield for Terry Collins in 2012.  Seven different players started at least one game in left field, with no one player starting more than 54 games at the position.  Seven players also started in right, with Lucas Duda leading the way despite starting only 77 games there.  Center field was the most stable position for the Mets, with "only" five players taking a turn as the team's starting centerfielder.

How much of a hodgepodge was the Mets' outfield situation in 2012?  Only Andres Torres started more than half of the team's games in the same position, trotting out to center field to start a game 101 times.  No other Met started more than 77 games (Duda) in the same outfield position.

While the Mets were struggling to find the right players to throw into their outfield cocktail, Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan were sipping up the good life in St. Louis and San Francisco, respectively, as both former Met outfielders played in over 150 games for their respective teams.

Carlos Beltran has been all smiles in St. Louis, leading the Cardinals to the 2012 NLCS.

Beltran enjoyed his finest season since 2008, clubbing 32 homers while driving in 97 runs.  He even started to run again, stealing 13 bases for the Cardinals.  In the postseason, Beltran has been on fire, batting .444 (8-for-18) with five extra-base hits (three doubles, two homers).  In the five-game NLDS versus Washington, Beltran reached base 13 times for a .542 on-base percentage.  He also had a Ruthian 1.486 OPS.

Similarly, Pagan was outstanding for the Giants in 2012, setting career highs in hits (174), doubles (38), triples (15 - most by any MLB player) and runs scored (95).  Pagan wasn't as dominant in his division series as Beltran was, but that doesn't mean he didn't contribute to the Giants' NLDS victory.  In five games, Pagan reached base five times and drove in four runs out of the leadoff spot.  His home run to lead off Game 4 set the tone for San Francisco's series-tying win and his diving catch to end the eighth inning of Game 5 was critical in preserving the lead and the eventual series victory for the Giants.

Like Carlos Beltran, Angel Pagan is just one series victory away from playing for the top prize in baseball.

Now Beltran and Pagan will be squaring off in the National League Championship Series to determine which former Met centerfielder will be playing in the World Series for the first time.  Meanwhile, Andres Torres (101 starts in CF), Lucas Duda (77 starts in RF, 23 starts in LF), Jason Bay (54 starts in LF), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (43 starts in CF, 20 starts in LF, 6 starts in RF), Scott Hairston (38 starts in RF, 37 starts in LF, 11 starts in CF), Mike Baxter (33 starts in RF, 10 starts in LF, 1 start in CF) and Jordany Valdespin (15 starts in LF, 6 starts in CF, 5 starts in RF) will be watching Beltran and Pagan play for the National League pennant.

Mets fans knew that Carlos Beltran's days were numbered in New York.  And if Zack Wheeler turns out to be the ace pitcher he's projected to be, then Beltran's mid-season trade to San Francisco in 2011 will be considered one of the best in team history.  Pagan also was certain to go, as he was considered to be an aloof player who constantly made errors in judgment on the field and on the bases.  But before the Mets said goodbye to both players, couldn't they have figured out who was going to replace them?

Had the Mets formulated a good plan for their replacements in center and right, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.  But they didn't.  And so now instead of watching the future of the team in the outfield, we're left to watch the team's past still playing in the present, with a chance to play in the World Series on the line.

Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan combined to play in 1,232 games as members of the Mets.  But now, they'll play four to seven games against each other to determine if they can lead their new teams to a place they never reached as Mets.  They'll both be taking center stage long after the Mets exited stage right.  And who knows what they'll give us for an encore.