Bad Outfield? What Bad Outfield?

Mike Baxter and Lucas Duda were supposed to be part of a lousy Mets outfield.  Take that, non-believers!

Prior to the start of the season, the biggest weakness for the Mets was not in the bullpen, but in the outfield.  Lucas Duda was the only player assured of an everyday job in the outfield just one year after his inconsistent play in the field and at the plate got him demoted to the minors.

But less than two weeks into the season, the various outfielders jockeying for playing time have collectively surpassed the low expectations set for them.  Six players have played in the outfield for the Mets through the season's first 11 contests.  Of those six, all but Kirk Nieuwenhuis have played in at least eight games.  Below are those five players' hitting statistics in 2013:

• Lucas Duda (10 games):  .276 average, .655 slugging percentage, 6 runs, 6 RBI, 5 XBH
• Marlon Byrd (10 games):  .270 average, .432 slugging percentage, 5 runs, 7 RBI, 3 XBH
• Mike Baxter (9 games):  .294 average, .455 on-base percentage, 5 runs
• Jordany Valdespin (9 games):  .381 average, .458 on-base percentage, 6 runs, 2 SB
• Collin Cowgill (8 games):  .407 slugging percentage, 4 runs, 6 RBI, 3 XBH

Collectively, the five main outfielders for the Mets have hit .263 with five doubles, two triples, six homers, 20 RBIs, 26 runs scored and three stolen bases through the team's first 11 games.  The fearsome fivesome has also combined to post a .368 on-base percentage and .466 slugging percentage during the Mets' 7-4 start.

There are no Upton brothers in the Mets outfield this season, nor is there a disgruntled Miami Marlin, but there might not need to be.  With the surprising production the team has gotten from Duda, Byrd, Baxter, Valdespin and Cowgill, the Mets have been doing just fine with their jigsaw puzzle outfield.

Perhaps the Mets will need to add a piece here or there to fix whatever problems they encounter during the season.  But as of right now, the outfield is not in need of repairs.  Who would have thought that just two weeks ago?
 

The Magic 8-Ball Predicts The 2013 Mets Season

Well, hello again, everyone!  In a few days, we'll be able to take the "off" out of "offseason", as the curtain will rise on yet another Major League Baseball season.  Over the past few months, the National League East has undergone some changes.

The Washington Nationals got stronger in the bullpen, adding Rafael Soriano, and the Atlanta Braves acquired every Upton not named Kate.  The Philadelphia Phillies got another year closer to the retirement home and the Miami Marlins decided to turn to Groupon to sell tickets to see Giancarlo and the Blowfish.

And the Mets?  They waved goodbye to Jason Bay, Andres Torres and the player who makes a guest appearance on the Wikipedia page of my wife's ass.  (Or is it the other way around?)  To replace those dearly departed outfielders, the Mets have auditioned everyone except Gary Matthews, Jr. and his old man.  The team has also added several future Hall of Fame pitchers, or at least they are in the Laffey, Marcum and Lyon households.

So will those additions and subtractions encourage a divisive fanbase to multiply in the Citi Field seats?  For the answer to that question and many more, we turn to our fav'rit spherical prognosticator.  Ladies and gentle-Mets, give it up for the Magic 8-Ball!

Thanks for stopping by.  So how do you feel about the team this year?  Can they compete for one of the five playoff spots in the National League?

Really?  That’s as optimistic an answer as I’ve ever gotten from you.  To what do you attribute this hope for the Mets in 2013?

I don’t understand.  Why the Astros?

And how does that affect the Mets?  They won’t be matched up against the Astros at all this year.

So you’re just optimistic because each team in the National League now has a 5 in 15 chance to make the playoffs instead of 5 in 16?

You sound like a GEICO commercial when you say that.

Okay, let’s move on.  With R.A. Dickey now knuckling for Canadian dollars, which pitcher in the starting rotation do you expect to have a breakthrough season?

My thoughts exactly!

You just can’t agree with me on anything, can you?
 

Whoa, there’s no need for that kind of language here.  This is a family-friendly site.  And the beginning of a new baseball season should bring out the best in everyone, including you.  Why are you always so hostile?

Shaking?  I don’t get what you’re trying to say.

Oh, you're the one that gets shaken.  Now I get it.

Sure.  Just two more questions and then you can do what Magic 8-Balls do when they’re not being shaken up.  Speaking of which, what exactly do you do when you’re not being asked questions?

Fine.  Anyway, how do you see the Mets’ outfield this season?

You know what I mean!

You think that highly of Cowgill?

I seriously have to get myself a new Magic 8-Ball next season.

Oh, so you don’t have eyes, but you’ve got ears tucked away somewhere.

Uh … well … you see … actually, I have no point.  Last question then.  What do you think the Mets’ final record will be and where will they finish in the National League East?

Wow!  You think they’ll be that good?

I knew your prediction was too good to be true.

And on that note, I'd like to wish all of you a very happy baseball season.  As the great Bob Barker would say, "please help control the snarky sphere population - don't forget to have your Magic 8-Ball spayed or neutered."  (I know I'm taking mine to get neutered right now!)

Have fun this season, and as always ... LET'S GO METS!!



Hey, kids!  The Magic 8-Ball has made predictions before.  To see what it said prior to each of the previous three seasons, please click on the links below:

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

Why Collin Cowgill Needs To Start

So far this offseason, the Mets have parted ways with Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Scott Hairston.  They also tried and failed to sign Michael Bourn, who chose to sign a multi-year deal with the Cleveland Indians.  To say the Mets are going to have a hodgepodge outfield in 2013 would be a serious understatement.

Going into March, the only outfielder assured of an everyday job is Lucas Duda, who's swinging and missing in spring training as if the pitcher was throwing furniture at him.  The other two outfield spots will be split between Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Marlon Byrd and Collin Cowgill.  Basically, the Mets are holding open tryouts for two-thirds of their outfield, with two right-handed hitters and two lefties battling it out for outfield supremacy.

All four players have their reasons for starting.  But I believe one player should start before the others, regardless of the position he ends up getting.

Collin Cowgill photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Collin Cowgill has played 423 games in the minor leagues, which is approximately three full seasons worth of games.  In that time, he has an impressive .291/.371/.470 slash line.  Cowgill has amassed 100 doubles, 22 triples, 51 homers and 80 stolen bases since he played his first professional game in 2008.  He has also been an exceptional defensive outfielder, racking up 44 assists while committing only 18 errors in five minor league seasons.

Cowgill's time in the majors has been limited, as he indulged in a cup of coffee with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011 and had a refill with the Oakland A's in 2012.  Between the two stints, he has collected 196 at-bats, batting .255 with five doubles, two homers, 18 RBIs, 18 runs scored and seven stolen bases.  But a closer look at the numbers reveals that Cowgill is not at all suited to coming off the bench.

In 25 career games off the bench, Cowgill has racked up a total of three hits.  Three might be a magic number to some, but it's downright tragic when that number represents a player's hit total off the bench in parts of two seasons.  I mean, Jordany Valdespin had two more HOME RUNS off the bench in 2012 than Cowgill had BASE HITS in 2011 and 2012 combined.  However, as a starting player, Cowgill has been much more effective.

In his first go-round in the majors in 2011, Cowgill started 21 games and batted .250 (19-for-76) with three doubles, one homer and nine RBIs.  Last season, he earned more starts and showed great improvement, raising his batting average to .283 in 28 starts.  He also showed more patience at the plate, as evidenced by his .351 on-base percentage in his starts.  (Cowgill had a .321 OBP as a starter in 2011.)

Let's consider Cowgill's career batting average and on-base percentage as a starter and bench player and compare them to those of the Mets' other three outfield candidates:

• Collin Cowgill:       .250/.321 (as a starter); .188/.188 (off the bench)
• Mike Baxter:          .232/.332 (as a starter); .321/.418 (off the bench)
• Marlon Byrd:         .278/.335 (as a starter); .272/.351 (off the bench)
• K. Nieuwenhuis:    .255/.316 (as a starter); .217/.308 (off the bench)

Going by those numbers, it would appear as if Cowgill and Nieuwenhuis should get the bulk of the starts, saving Baxter and Byrd as the top left-handed and right-handed pinch hitters, respectively.

Terry Collins will have to consider all the variables when it comes to filling out his lineup card every day.  Will he need a better defensive outfield?  Does he need an extra lefty in the lineup?  What about an extra right-handed hitter?

Any one of the four outfielders not named Duda can get the bulk of the starts in center field or right field.  But of the four, Collin Cowgill should be the one who remains on the bench the least.  Not only is he an exciting player who can hit, run and field, but he's most valuable when his name is in the starting lineup.

If Collin Cowgill can continue to produce as a starting player as he has in the past, then Mets fans will be seeing a lot of him at Citi Field in 2013.

Where Have You Gone, Lastings Milledge?

A few days ago, my fav'rit Gal For All Seasons continued her new weekly series on a topic near and dear to her - what she likes to call post-traumatic Mets disorder - by discussing her survival of Lastings Milledge.   For those of you who have tried to block out the Omar Minaya era or were never a card-carrying member of the Milledge People, allow me to refresh your memory on who Lastings Milledge was (technically, he still is Lastings Milledge, as far as I know).

Lastings Milledge was a flashy prospect for the Mets who had five-tool talent - a latter-day Darryl Strawberry, if you will.  Although he didn't possess Strawberry's prodigious power (the type of power that would make you wait until after his at-bat to get your Shea Stadium souvenir cup soda), he was supposed to be the future in the Mets outfield.  However, when Milledge first got called up to the Mets in 2006, he was more Throneberry than Strawberry.

Milledge batted .241 in 56 games for the division champs, with four homers, 22 RBIs and one stolen base.  As a 21-year-old enjoying his first call-up to the big leagues, Milledge looked overmatched at times, taking awkward hacks at the plate.  A .300 hitter in the minor leagues, Milledge barely cracked a .300 on-base percentage for the Mets in 2006, finishing the season at .310.

In 2007, Milledge made the team out of spring training, but was sent back down to the minors after playing in only three games in April.  He didn't make it back to the big show until July, but when he did, he finally showed some of the potential the Mets expected to see when they drafted him as the 12th overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft.  From July 21 to August 15, Milledge played in 20 games, batting .389 (28-for-72) with nine extra-base hits, 12 RBIs, 14 runs scored and two stolen bases.

Milledge only played in 59 games for the Mets in 2007 (three more than he played in 2006), but improved in most offensive categories.  He finished the season with a .272 batting average, .341 on-base percentage and .446 slugging percentage.  Milledge belted seven homers, drove in 29 runs and stole three bases in 184 at-bats.  Those numbers made it seem like Milledge was settling in for a long career in New York.  But unfortunately, he did have one thing in common with Darryl Strawberry.  He made the front office uncomfortable with his off-the-field habits.

Instead of settling in as the team's starting rightfielder in 2008, Milledge was dealt to the Washington Nationals for rightfielder Ryan Church and catcher Brian Schneider.  When Church wasn't getting concussed, he was a decent offensive player.  Schneider wasn't a bad catcher, but his offensive production was a far cry from what Paul LoDuca gave the Mets in 2006 and 2007.  Heck, Schneider wasn't even Ramon Castro when it came to his hitting prowess.

As Church and Schneider settled in with their new team, Milledge had a career year in Washington.  Milledge played in 138 games for the Nationals in 2008 and batted .268 with 24 doubles, 14 homers, 61 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. A slow start in 2009 earned Milledge a return trip to the minors and eventually got him traded to Pittsburgh.  Milledge performed decently in the Steel City, but nagging injuries never allowed him to settle into the everyday lineup.  In 1½ seasons as a Pirate, Milledge only collected 599 at-bats, but managed to hit .282 with 32 doubles, eight homers, 54 RBIs and 11 stolen bases.  When the Pirates failed to offer Milledge a contract following the 2010 season, he signed a free agent deal with the Chicago White Sox.  Milledge only played in two games with Chicago in 2011 and then couldn't get another job with a major league team.

After realizing that his talents were not wanted stateside, Milledge packed his bags, dusted off his passport, and took his game to Japan on a one-year deal with the Yakult Swallows.  Finally healthy, Milledge played in 125 games for the Swallows and batted .300 with 23 doubles, 21 homers, 65 RBIs, 73 runs scored and nine stolen bases.  He also showed much-improved discipline at the plate, striking out 79 times in 546 plate appearances and drawing a career-high 57 walks.  Milledge's .865 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) would have been second on the 2012 Mets, after David Wright's .883 OPS.  And that's where the point of this piece finally makes itself known.

Sandy Alderson has been in search of an outfielder since the season ended.  So far Alderson has signed Andrew Brown and Marlon Byrd to minor league contracts, and he's traded for outfielder Collin Cowgill. He's also doing his best to romance Michael Bourn into a discounted deal with the Mets.  But when Lastings Milledge's contract with the Swallows expired following the 2012 campaign, Alderson didn't even notice.  As a result, Milledge chose to stay in Japan, signing a three-year, $4.4 million contract with a fourth year mutual option.

So now the Mets are still trying to figure out which combination of outfielders they're going to use in 2013, while Milledge will be playing the prime years of his career (he won't be 28 until April) overseas.  The Mets didn't want to give Scott Hairston $4 million per year because he wanted a two-year deal.  But Yakult was able to keep Milledge away from the major leagues with $4.4 million over three years.

Lastings Milledge might have been a pain for the Mets front office five years ago, but now he's only a pain for opposing pitchers in Japan.  It's too bad Sandy Alderson didn't take notice when he had the chance.

Q & A Highlights With Sandy Alderson & Pals

On Wednesday night, the Studious Metsimus staff was invited to attend a special Q & A session for Mets season ticket holders at Citi Field.  Master of ceremonies Kevin Burkhardt was there, as well as general manager Sandy Alderson and his merry men (from left to right - John Ricco, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi).

For 45 minutes, the front office foursome fielded questions from the audience, which included yours truly, Studious Metsimus roving reporter/culinary expert Joey Beartran, and my Gal For All Seasons (The Coop).

Kevin Burkhardt began the session by introducing the four members of the Mets' front office, then gave the floor to Sandy Alderson.  Alderson opened the evening's events with a thoughtful and well-rehearsed monologue, which included this zinger after he started to discuss the state of the bullpen as it currently stands:

"I'm not sure how we can end up with a not-improved bullpen."




Alderson and his Super Best Friends tackled a rapid barrage of questions from concerned season ticket holders.  From questions about the outfield to how long it was taking for the team to improve to a shocker about whose idea it was not to spend exorbitant amounts of money during the off-season, the members of the front office did not shy away from any of the fans' questions.

When asked about the reason why it's taking so long for the team to be competitive, Alderson said that he doesn't want to buy, buy, buy just to satisfy the short-term needs of the team.  He summarized by saying:

"We don't want to be there one year and gone the next."




A concerned fan asked Alderson why the team is still unwilling to spend money, to which the general manager gave an unexpected answer:

"The reason we haven't spent the money is not because of Fred Wilpon or Saul Katz.  It's because of me."






Of course, one of the hot topics of the evening was the status of the Mets' outfield.  In responding to one fan's question on the outfield, Alderson said the team created a list of all available outfielders that they would consider.  Entering this week, only two outfielders remained on that list.  One was Michael Bourn, who Alderson admitted would not become a Met if the team was forced to give up its 11th pick in next year's amateur draft.  The other was just signed by the Yankees.  Who was that coveted outfielder?  Sandy, take it away!

"Juan Rivera"




Yup, you heard him right.  Apparently, Juan Rivera was on the shrinking list of outfielders the Mets were considering.  That's the same Juan Rivera who hasn't had a productive season since 2009.  Kinda sounds like Jason Bay.

It wasn't just a Sandy Party at the Q & A session.  His three assistants/associates/yes men also got a chance to field questions.  They were asked which players they were excited to see in spring training that might be flying under the radar.  Their responses?

J.P. Ricciardi

"Jack Leathersich.  He reminds me of Josh Edgin ... he struck out well over a batter per inning last year at two minor league levels."

Paul DePodesta

"Rafael Montero.  He can throw 92 or 93 [miles per hour], but if there's a guy on second base and two outs, he can throw 95.  Also, 70% of his pitches went for strikes.  The major league average is in the low 60s."

John Ricco

"Collin Cowgill.  T.C. [Terry Collins] will like him.  He can play all three outfield positions.  Zzzzzzzzz."







I don't know what to think of Ricciardi's assessment of Leathersich.  He says Leathersich reminds him of a pitcher who had a 4.56 ERA with the Mets in 2012 and allowed a homer every five innings he pitched.  I'd like someone a little better than that in my bullpen, please.

DePodesta painted an impressive picture of Montero.  It's too bad he's due to begin the season at AA-Binghamton.  He might not make an impact at the major league level until 2014. 

As for Ricco's "review" of Cowgill ... uh ...he didn't exactly say much or give us anything to get excited about.  Then again, he looked a little like the fifth Beatle when he was up on stage, perhaps wondering what his former crony, Omar Minaya, was up to.  Then he fell asleep.

Finally, my Gal For All Seasons got to ask her question.  She asked Alderson what the status of Dillon Gee was, especially considering that he was shut down early in 2012 and that very little news of his recovery effort has been documented in the media.  Alderson made her and the audience smile when he said:

 "We're very confident that he's going to be ready to go, that he'll be on the staff on Opening Day."




Sandy Alderson, John Ricco, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi were forthright in their responses to some difficult questions by the fans.  They did not hide from any of the questions and seemed to create a positive buzz for the team when the night was over.

After the session was over, the foursome posed for pictures and had one-on-one conversations with various members of the audience (myself included).  Alderson admitted to me that he does read Mets blogs, but usually sticks to ones that are well-researched (ahem).  He was not a fan of Mets blogs written by people who speak negatively of the team and its operations without backing up their claims.

He then posed for one photo with a certain member of the Studious Metsimus staff.  Upon taking the photo, he gulped and said "I'm sure this is going to go viral."

The Studious Metsimus staff would like to thank Sandy Alderson and his Super Best Friends for sharing part of their evening with the fans.  Now it's up to them to put together a team we can all be thankful for.

Deep Thoughts With Sandy Alderson

Earlier today, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson appeared on WFAN, talking to Mike Francesa on the state of the team.  He regurgitated stuff we already knew (Scott Hairston is Plan B in the outfield), some things we didn't want to know (Brian Wilson left his velocity in San Francisco), and apparently has a fever, and the only prescription is more Cowgill (as in Collin Cowgill).

He also revealed three little nuggets that I'd like to chew on for a moment, if I may.

Like a master chess player, Sandy Alderson is always contemplating his next move.

Zack Wheeler will more than likely start the season at AAA-Las Vegas.  However, if the Mets can't acquire a starting pitcher to join Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey in the rotation, and if the trio of Jeremy Hefner, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia fail to impress in spring training, then it wouldn't be out of the question for the team to consider having Wheeler on the Opening Day roster.

Alderson also revealed a very interesting tidbit about catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud. Apparently, prior to trading R.A. Dickey to Toronto, Alderson tried to swing a deal with another unnamed team. The Mets' general manager was asking for two top prospects in return for the Cy Young Award winner, but was turned down. However, after Alderson acquired d'Arnaud from the Blue Jays, the same team that wouldn't send their two prospects to the Mets for Dickey, asked if the Mets would be interested in those same prospects for d'Arnaud, to which Alderson told them "d'Ar-NO!"

Finally, Alderson stated that Matt Harvey would not have an innings limit imposed upon him in 2013. Last year, Harvey was two outs short of pitching 170 innings between AAA-Buffalo and the Mets before he was shut down for the season. Alderson admitted that the reason why Harvey was shut down before season's end in 2012 was because he had advanced so rapidly, moving through the Mets' minor league system in less than two years. Harvey is expected to remain in the Mets' rotation throughout the entire 2013 campaign and as a result, will not need to have his innings scaled back. If he pitches well enough to throw 200 innings, then he will throw 200 innings.

Regarding Zack Wheeler, I would rather he pitch part of the season at the Triple-A level before being called up to New York. Harvey made 20 starts at AAA-Buffalo before making a successful transition to the big leagues.  Wheeler has already made six starts in Triple-A.  That's not a large enough sample for the Mets to say he's ready to face hitters at the major league level. However, since he does have some Triple-A experience, he should receive his first promotion to the majors before the All-Star Break, assuming he continues to progress at Las Vegas.

The Travis d'Arnaud news was impressive. Clearly, the unnamed team (aren't they all unnamed when news like this surfaces?) thought so highly of d'Arnaud that they'd rather have him than the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Alderson must have loved rejecting their offer after they turned their noses up at his.

The one topic that caught my attention more than anything else (other than Francesa's constant interruptions) was the news that Matt Harvey will not be on an innings limit, to which I say "it's about ding-dong time!"

There will be no summer vacation for Matt Harvey this year. Just lots and lots of innings.

Every highly-touted young pitcher coming up to the big leagues seems to have an innings limit these days. Stephen Strasburg was not allowed to pitch more than 160 innings in 2012 and it might have cost the Washington Nationals a chance to play in the NLCS. Granted, Strasburg was coming off Tommy John surgery, but that was in 2010. He made a total of 11 starts in 2011 (six rehab, five at the major league level) and was deemed healthy at the start of 2012. Much closer to home, the Yankees came up with "Joba Rules" for their can't-miss pitching prospect, Joba Chamberlain, during his first few years in the majors.  Chamberlain has rewarded his team with various injuries and a 4.43 ERA in 154 games since 2009.

When Dwight Gooden broke camp with the Mets in 1984, he was just a teenager. But he still managed to throw 218 innings during his Rookie of the Year campaign and followed that up with two seasons of 250+ innings pitched. Injuries didn't contribute to his downfall in 1987. Drugs did. Prior to his first stint in rehab, Gooden was 58-19 with a 2.28 ERA. More importantly, he didn't spend a single day on the disabled list from 1984 to 1986. Although he was still only 21 after he had completed his third major league season in 1986, he had already proven to the team and the rest of the league that he didn't need to have his innings curtailed.

Matt Harvey will be 24 by Opening Day. He has already tossed over 300 innings of professional baseball. He's not in diapers, so the team shouldn't treat him like he is. Harvey is ready to bust out in a major way in 2013, and the Mets are right not to put any restrictions on him.

Rome wasn't built in a day. The powerhouse Mets of the '80s weren't built in a year. The same can be said for the current incarnation of the Mets.

Sandy Alderson has a plan. That plan includes the continued development of Matt Harvey, Travis d'Arnaud and Zack Wheeler. (I haven't forgotten about Noah Syndergaard. Neither has Sandy.)  It takes time to put together a well-crafted machine. And Sandy Alderson is doing his best to put all the pieces together so that they can run smoothly and effectively for many years to come.