Curtis Granderson's Resurgence Keeps the Naysayers at Bay

Curtis Granderson is rarely without a smile.  His 2015 production is making everybody smile.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus) 

Curtis Granderson did not have a good year offensively in 2014 - the first of four campaigns he was under contract with the Mets.  In his first season in Flushing, Granderson posted a .227/.326/.388 slash line.  The right fielder failed to record 50 extra-base hits and did not reach double-digit stolen bases after having seven straight seasons with 50+ XBH and six consecutive campaigns with 10+ SB through 2012, averaging 66 XBH and 18 SB per season.  (Granderson played just 61 games in 2013, notching 22 extra-base hits and eight steals.)  Granderson did lead the team in one offensive category in his first year, striking out 141 times in 564 at-bats.

But unlike the other free agent outfielder signed to a long-term deal by the Mets in the post-Shea Stadium era (Jason Bay), Granderson has turned things around quite nicely in his second season at Citi Field.  Through the team's first 133 games in 2015, Granderson has produced a .258/.351/.457 slash line, racking up 52 extra-base hits (28 doubles, one triple, 23 homers) and stealing 11 bases.  He has also scored 77 runs, has 59 RBI - a high number for a leadoff hitter - and has drawn 69 walks.

A year after he had fans wishing the team had never signed him to a four-year deal, Granderson is now leading the team in hits, walks, runs scored, home runs, RBI and stolen bases.  And that's not something that has happened much in team history.  Here are the players who have led the Mets in all six categories over a full season, with Granderson's numbers included in the mix.

Player	Year	Hits	Walks	Runs	HR	RBI	SB
Lee Mazzilli	1980	162	82	82	16	76	41
Howard Johnson	1989	164	77	104	36	101	41
Curtis Granderson	2015	128	69	77	23	59	11

In addition to Mazzilli, HoJo and Granderson, only two other players have led the team in five of the six categories in one season.  Darryl Strawberry's 1987 campaign saw him lead the Mets in walks (97), runs (108), home runs (39), RBI (104) and stolen bases (36).  However, the Straw Man finished third on team in hits behind Keith Hernandez and Kevin McReynolds.  David Wright has twice led the team in five of the six categories in a season.  The team's all-time leader in several offensive categories led the club in everything but home runs in 2009, finishing two taters behind unlikely team leader Daniel Murphy.  Three years later, Wright once again led the Mets in hits, walks, runs scored, RBI and stolen bases, but finished second to Ike Davis in home runs.

Should Granderson remain the team leader in the six offensive categories over the final month of the 2015 campaign, he would become just the third Met in franchise history to finish first in all six over a full season.  And he'd accomplish something never accomplished by Strawberry, Wright, Tommie Agee, Cleon Jones and other five-tool players that have worn a Mets uniform over the years.

Last year was widely considered to be a subpar season for Granderson, even though he hit 20 HR and drew 77 walks - the two categories coveted by Mets general manager Sandy Alderson.  The next time Granderson takes ball four in 2015, he will have his second consecutive 20 HR/70 BB campaign, which would make him just the tenth Met to have multiple seasons reaching both totals, joining Strawberry (1984-88, 1990), Johnson (1987-89, 1991), Todd Hundley (1996-97), John Olerud (1997-98), Edgardo Alfonzo (1999-2000), Robin Ventura (1999-2001), Wright (2005, 2007-08, 2012), Carlos Beltran (2006, 2008) and Carlos Delgado (2006, 2008).  You may know some of those players as among the best offensive stars in team history.

Granderson has two years left on the four-year, $60 million contract he signed prior to the 2014 season.  His first year left a lot to be desired.  But his second season has seen him lead the team's offensive charge in ways that have rarely been seen in club annals.  It remains to be seen how the rest of his tenure in Flushing will unfold.  But one thing is for sure.  Curtis Granderson is earning every penny of his contract this season.  He's regularly reaching base with hits and walks.  He's driving the ball out of the park.  He's running the bases with aplomb.  And he's hitting in the clutch, driving in his teammates from a spot in the batting order not usually known for its run-production.

The Mets owe their resurgence to a player whose renaissance couldn't have come at a better time.
 

Joey's Soapbox: My 2014 Not-So-Biased World Series Pick

Hello, everyone.  This is your favorite Studious Metsimus prognosticator, Joey Beartran.  Today, I'm sad to report that it's that time of year again.  The end of the baseball season is upon us, and it'll be the 28th consecutive year that doesn't end with the Mets raising the World Series trophy and Keith Hernandez recovering from a hangover.

But just because the Mets aren't playing for all the marbles doesn't mean I can't suggest which team you should wager your marbles on.

The 2014 World Series features a playoff-experienced San Francisco Giants team and the new kids on the playoff block, the Kansas City Royals, a team that has shown the right stuff in becoming the first team to win eight straight games to start a postseason.  It's the second time that both World Series participants are wild card teams (the Angels and Giants played in the first all-wild card Fall Classic in 2002) and the first time any wild card team has advanced to the World Series since the two-wild card format was instituted in 2012.

It's the culmination of everything the Giants and Royals have played for since the start of the season.  It's the 2014 World Series.  And it's time I stop rambling and give you my expert pick to help you make an educated wager on the winner.  Just remember to compensate me properly when my pick wins you lots of dough.  (And for the record, I prefer my dough in the form of pizza.)

You take my World Series pick and I'll take sausage and extra cheese on my pizza.

World Series


San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals

This is the third time the Giants have played in the World Series since the Mets moved to Citi Field.  The last time the Royals played in the Fall Classic, the Mets had just one championship to their credit.  Needless to say, this is a matchup between two completely different teams when it comes to playoff experience.  But they're quite similar in just about everything else.

Neither team was known for the home run ball, as both the Giants and Royals had just two players with more than 16 homers.

Both teams had great starting pitchers and even better bullpens, as the Giants and Royals' bullpen ERA was nearly half a run lower than what their starters produced.

San Francisco and Kansas City also hit better with runners in scoring position (.267 for SF, .271 for KC) than they did overall (.255 for SF, .263 for KC).

Both teams advanced to the World Series by winning a plethora of close games.  The Giants won all three of their games against the Nationals in the division series by one run, then defeated the Cardinals by three runs or less in each of their four NLCS wins against them.  Meanwhile, seven of the Royals' eight postseason victories were either one-run wins or games in which Kansas City scored the winning run in its final at-bat.

Finally, both San Francisco and Kansas City have played excellent defense during their respective postseason runs, as the Giants have made three errors in ten games and the Royals have committed three miscues in eight contests.

But there is one HUGE difference between the two teams.  And it's in their legs.  San Francisco stole 56 bases during the regular season, good for last place in the National League.  No Giants player swiped more than 16 bags, and one of them was team co-leader Angel Pagan, who is inactive for the postseason.  Meanwhile, Kansas City's 153 steals led the American League.  Speedsters Jarrod Dyson (36 SB), Alcides Escobar (31 SB), Lorenzo Cain (28 SB) and Nori Aoki (17 SB) all would have led the Giants with their stolen base totals.

The Giants allowed 107 stolen bases during the regular season, a number that was surpassed by just four National League teams.  All four of those teams (San Diego, Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami) finished the season with losing records.  Giants catchers threw out a mere 32 would-be base stealers and had plenty of trouble with Royals' runners during their interleague matchup with Kansas City in August, throwing out just one base stealer in nine attempts.  In fact, in the final game of the three-game series sweep by the Royals, the Giants allowed seven stolen bases with nary a caught stealing to their credit.  It was just the seventh time in the last century that the Giants allowed as many as seven steals in one game and the fifth time it happened without any base stealers being caught.

Rk	Date	Team	Opp	Result	SB	CS
1	2014-08-10	KCR	SFG	W 7-4	7	0
2	2009-05-14	NYM	SFG	W 7-4	7	0
3	1999-04-13	HOU	SFG	W 7-3	7	1
4	1988-04-18	CIN	SFG	L 3-6	7	0
5	1983-07-27	STL	SFG	W 7-6	9	0
6	1946-09-08	BRO	NYG	W 11-3	8	1
7	1919-07-07 (1)	PHI	NYG	L 5-10	7	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/19/2014.

Jarrod Dyson is one of many Royals who should make the Giants nervous.  (Denny Medley/USA Today Sports)

It goes without saying that Buster Posey and all Giants pitchers will have to keep an eye on Kansas City's speedsters once they reach base.  And if too many of them reach base, it'll be sayonara for San Francisco.

The Giants can win their third championship if they continue their timely hitting and keep the Royals off first base.  It's hard enough to continue to come up with clutch hits.  It's almost impossible to keep the Royals from running wild on the bases.  San Francisco tried in August and was embarrassed in a three-game sweep.  This won't be a sweep by the Royals, but it also won't be a third title in five years for the Giants either.

Prediction:  Royals in 6.
 

Band On The Run

AP Photo by Frank Franklin II

Since Jose Reyes left town to be part of the Marlins' semi-annual fire sale, the Mets have not been very dependent on the stolen base.  The team stole just 79 bases in 2012.  It was the first time since 2003 (the year Reyes was called up to the big leagues) that the Mets failed to steal 100 bases in a season.

Over the first two and a half months of the 2013 campaign, the Mets' lethargy on the bases continued, as the team stole 29 bases in their first 67 games - a 70-steal pace over 162 games.  But then the Mets acquired Eric Young, Jr. from the Colorado Rockies in mid-June, and the team became a band on the run.

Since Young played his first game for the Mets on June 19, the team has stolen 25 bases in 26 games.  Not only are the Mets stealing more bases, they're doing it with an incredible success rate.  Through June 18 (the pre-Young days), the Mets stole 29 bases in 43 attempts for a 67.4% success rate.  The last time the Mets had a lower stolen base success rate was in 2001, when utility player Desi Relaford led the team with 13 steals.  (The team stole 66 bases in 114 attempts in 2001 - a 57.9% success rate.)

Once Young donned a Mets jersey for the first time, the team was off and running (and smarter, too).  In 26 games since June 19, New York has stolen 25 bases in 35 attempts for a 71.4% success rate.  Today marked the sixth time in the last ten games that the Mets stole at least two bases.  Prior to Young's arrival, the Mets had six games with two or more steals all year.

Young himself has swiped ten bags since he became a Met, but the rest of team has followed in his speedy footsteps, specifically Daniel Murphy, who is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts since June 19.

The focus on stolen bases as an offensive weapon has given the Mets a new dimension to their game.  Not coincidentally, it has also given them a few more wins.  Including today's 5-4 win over the Phillies, the Mets have gone 15-11 since Eric Young, Jr. joined the Mets.  Without question, his arrival has helped invigorate a moribund team.

Prior to June 19, the Mets were a station-to-station team who depended mostly on the long ball to score runs.  (Remember the team-record 12-game homer streak to start the season?)  They still hit home runs (14 homers in their last 14 games), but now they can beat you with their legs as well.

After a 25-40 start, the Mets have used their wings to fly from base to base, making them a true band on the run.  Let's see if their new offensive weapon can take them running up the NL East standings as well.
 

Do The Hustle!

Some people say that as Jose Reyes goes, so do the Mets. Even SNY has gotten into the argument by constantly posting the Mets' record when Reyes scores at least one run as opposed to when he doesn't. (The Mets are 18-5 when he scores at least one run and 8-20 when he doesn't, for those keeping score at home.)

But why do the Mets have to depend on one catalyst to score runs? All nine players in the lineup should contribute towards victories (unless if you're the Phillies and you can only win games when Harry LeRoy Halladay starts).

That is why Studious Metsimus is going above and beyond to find a stat no one else is mentioning that is relevant to wins and losses.

Teams that score runs by advancing one base at a time need multiple hits to score their runs. Is it no wonder that these teams have difficulty winning games? Stealing bases puts runners in scoring position or advances runners to third base where they can score without needing a base hit.

The St. Louis Cardinals of the 1980s perfected the art of stealing bases and used it as a weapon. Their pilfering prowess allowed them to win three National League pennants (1982, 1985, 1987) and one World Series (1982).

So let's see what the Mets have done this year when they've felt frisky on the bases.


Over the first 51 games, the Mets have stolen bases in 34 of them. That leaves them with 17 games in which they did not steal a base. Their record is those 17 games is a disappointing 5-12. When they do steal at least one base, their record is 21-13. In games where they steal multiple bases, the Mets are 8-3.

To find the last time the Mets won a game in which they did not steal a base, you have to go back almost a full month to May 4, when the Mets defeated the Cincinnati Reds by the score of 5-4. Since then, the Mets have played seven games in which they failed to swipe a base and lost all of them.

So the moral of this story is quite simple, really. If the Mets are fleet on their feet, they stand a much better chance of winning ballgames. If they're stagnant on the bases, you'll see many more unhappy recaps.

Over the past few years, the Mets have not played particularly well in San Diego. If the Mets want to continue on their march towards first place, they have to remember to do the hustle once they're on the bases. Winning is contagious. Losing is as cool as Shane Victorino in a leisure suit. (Only he could turn Tony Manero into Tony Manure.)

To quote (and slightly alter) one-hit wonder Matthew Wilder's 1983 song, "Ain't nothin' gonna break their stride. Nobody's gonna slow them down. Oh no! They've got to keep on movin'!" Movin' on the bases, that is.