The Dog Days of Summer Might Be Happy Days For the Mets

The Mets hope to provide both bark and bite in the month of August.

The dog days of summer are upon us.  And while the month after the All-Star break is usually the time when some baseball teams start to fade, this is the time when the Mets have to heat up if they want to pass the Washington Nationals to claim an unlikely division title.

The month of July was supposed to be the big test for the Mets.  New York faced all three National League division leaders in the month (Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles) and two of the league's wild card contenders (San Francisco, Chicago), yet still managed to record more wins than losses in the month, going 13-12 to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Mets managed to gain 1½ games on the Nationals in July, as Washington stumbled to an 11-13 record in the month.

Now that the calendar has shifted to August, the schedule becomes much softer for the Mets.  They began the month with a thrilling, come-from-behind, Duda-powered victory over the Nationals, and after tonight's series finale against Washington, the schedule is loaded with sub-.500 team after sub-.500 team.

Beginning with Monday's game against the Miami Marlins, the Mets play 31 games over the next five weeks.  The only teams they face that currently have a winning record between tomorrow and Labor Day are the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles.  New York will host Pittsburgh from August 14-16, followed by a two-game series in Baltimore on August 18 and 19.  However, it should be noted that the Pirates have a losing record on the road (25-26), which is where they would find themselves when they take on the Mets at Citi Field in two weeks, while the Orioles are above .500 with a 53-50 record, or half a game behind the Mets, who are 54-50.

That leaves 26 out of 31 games against the likes of the Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox between tomorrow and September 6.  The combined record of those five teams is 225-296, which suits the Mets just fine, as they have been feasting this season against teams they have a better record than, going 35-20 against those clubs.

While the Mets play just five of their next 31 games against teams that are currently below .500, the Nationals have to play ten games against the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals - all on the road - between tomorrow and Labor Day.  Those three teams are a combined 53 games above .500 and are 105-57 in their home games.  It should be noted that the Nationals are three games under .500 on the road this year.

The Mets have suffered some heartbreaking losses this year, but have still managed to remain in the hunt for their first division title since 2006.  They survived July, gaining ground on the first place Nationals despite playing an arduous schedule.  Over the next five weeks, the pendulum swings decidedly in their favor, as they face second division team after second division team - teams that shipped off several of their best players at the trade deadline - while the Nats have to travel to face some of the best teams the league has to offer.

The hottest days of the year could feature some of the best baseball played by the Mets since the team moved to Citi Field in 2009.  The Mets must take advantage of their upcoming soft schedule if they don't want to melt away in the N.L. East standings.

The Mets Can Win The N.L. East

This scene isn't as impossible as you might think for the Mets in 2013
(other than the Shea Stadium location, of course).

Stop laughing at the title of this post.  I truly mean it when I say the Mets can win the N.L. East.  Sure, the team is still eight games under .500 after splitting a four-game series with the division-leading Atlanta Braves.  And yes, the Mets remain ten games behind the Braves for the top spot in the East.  But there is no reason to think the Mets can't end up on top of their division come September 29, and I have several reasons why.

On the morning of June 18 (otherwise known as "Super Tuesday"), the Mets woke up with a 25-40 record, 14½ games behind the Braves for first place in the eastern division.  They were also seven games behind the second place Nationals and six games behind the third place Phillies.  In the six weeks since Zack Wheeler made his major league debut and Eric Young, Jr. was acquired from the Colorado Rockies, the Mets have a 20-13 record.  The only teams in baseball with more wins than the Mets during that time period are the Los Angeles Dodgers (24-8) and Tampa Bay Rays (24-9).  No other team in the N.L. East has more than 15 wins since June 18.

New York also has many games remaining against teams with losing records.  After their 7-4 victory over the Braves on Thursday, the Mets have 64 games left on their schedule.  Each of their next 14 games is against a team with a losing record.  In all, 44 of their last 64 games are against teams with sub-.500 records.  The Mets play just six series over the next two-plus months against teams that currently have winning records.  Two of those six series are against the Atlanta Braves - a team the Mets have defeated seven times this year, which is the most victories they have against any team in 2013.  Another of those six series is against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that is 18-24 since June 5 and has relinquished first place after holding on to the top spot in the N.L. West for most of the season.

Consider this.  Since their 12-1 start, the Braves are 45-44.  That's over half a season of being mediocre.  Meanwhile, the Phillies and Nationals have been mediocre all season.  The Mets, on the other hand, have been far better than a break-even team for well over a month now.

Shaun Marcum has been released, thereby freezing his record for all eternity at 1-10.  Zack Wheeler has replaced him in the rotation with a 4-1 mark.  Dillon Gee has been brilliant over his last ten starts, going 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA.  And the bullpen has finally found its groove, posting a 1.98 ERA in the soon-to-be-completed month of July.  (Matt Harvey is Matt Harvey, so you know he's going to be good.)

The offense has finally clicked as well.  After hitting .229 from April to June (never batting higher than .233 in any calendar month), the Mets are batting .267 in the month of July.  They are still averaging close to one home run per game (92 homers in 98 games), but now they've added the stolen base to their offensive repertoire.  During the season's first three months, the Mets averaged 12.3 thefts per month, never swiping more than 14 bases in any one month.  In the month of July, the Mets have already stolen 20 bases, and that's with the All-Star Break zapping four days off the calendar.

In 1973, the Mets were 12 games under .500 and 11½ games out of first place on the morning of August 6.  They went on to win the division.  In 2001, New York was 14 games under .500 and 13½ games behind the division leader when their alarm clocks went off on August 18.  By September 27, they had cut the lead to three games but fell short of completing their unlikely comeback.

The 2013 Mets are eight games under .500 and ten games behind a team that has been nothing more than mediocre since the third week of the season.  They have less of an uphill climb this year than they had in 1973 and 2001.  Why is it so hard to believe they can't overcome Atlanta, Philadelphia and Washington in a weak division when there's still over two months to go in the regular season, especially when the team is showing that it's getting better offensively and in the bullpen?

It ain't over till it's over.  And with the way the Mets have been playing over the past month and a half, it may not be over anytime soon.  As far-fetched as it may seem, ya gotta believe the Mets can still win the N.L. East.

New Homestand, New Hope

After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night in an emotional extra-inning affair, the Mets return to Citi Field to begin a week-long homestand against the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although the Mets are still in last place with a 12-16 record, they're not as far out of contention as their record and division standing would suggest. In fact, parity in baseball has made fans in every major league city hold on to hopes of meaningful baseball games in the summer.

Because baseball doesn't have a salary cap, it's difficult to achieve parity. Usually the teams with the highest payrolls have the best chance to extend their seasons past 162 games. More often than not, these teams usually finish well above .500 and have a relatively simple time making their way to the postseason. However, in the early going this season, an overwhelming number of teams are right around the .500 mark.

As of today, only five teams in baseball are more than three games above .500. Those teams are the Indians (19-8), Marlins (18-9), Phillies (18-9), Rockies (17-9) and Yankees (17-9). With identical 16-13 records, the Angels, Rangers and Cardinals can all lay claim to having the sixth-best record in baseball.

Want more proof that there's parity in baseball? Of the 30 teams in the major leagues, a whopping 20 franchises (or two-thirds of all clubs) are between three games over .500 and four games under .500. At 12-16, the Mets are one of those 20 teams that are separated by a mere 3½ games.

Let's now focus strictly on the National League. As of now, only four NL teams have winning records (Marlins, Phillies, Rockies, Cardinals). The Mets have played three of these four teams (they don't play St. Louis until after the All-Star Break) and are a combined 4-9 against them. Against all other opponents, the Mets have a winning record (8-7). After 28 games, the Mets have played nearly half of their schedule against teams that have winning percentages above .650. What about those three .650+ teams? How have the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies racked up so many wins early on? A quick look at their early season schedules reveal quite a tale.

The Marlins have played 27 games, but only six of them have come against teams with winning records. The Phillies have also played 27 games, with only two of those games being played against above-.500 teams (they split those two games against the Marlins). Meanwhile, the Rockies have played three of their 26 games against a winning team, losing two of three to the Marlins.

That means the Mets have played more games against the "elite" teams in the National League (13) than the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have played combined (11). Of course the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have good records. They've feasted on the dregs of the National League!

In addition, neither one of those three teams has played more games on the road than at home. The Mets, on the other hand, have played 15 of their 28 games away from Citi Field.

Now the Mets come back home, where they won their last four ballgames before going 3-3 on their recent Washington/Philadelphia trip. They will be facing the Giants and the Dodgers, teams with a combined 28-30 record. Meanwhile, the Marlins will playing six of their next nine games against teams with winning records (Cardinals, Phillies), while the Phillies will be facing their first real test of the season, with series against the Marlins and three of the other five division leaders (Cardinals, Rangers, Rockies) over the next three weeks.

The Mets are in last place now, but they have the opportunity to make a statement this week at home against the Giants and Dodgers. Parity is the name of the game in the major leagues this season, and the teams that have risen above it have done so by taking advantage of their weak early season schedules. But all that is about to change in the next few weeks. Will the Mets be able to rise if the other teams fall? If they do, this week's homestand could give new hope for the team and its fans.

An Amazin'ly Stupid Article In Today's NY Post

Normally, I have a lot of respect for New York Post sportswriter Phil Mushnick. For years, his columns have been among the first I turn to whenever I buy the Post. But today, I feel like he gave the Mets a cheap shot without doing any research on the topic he was blasting them for.

In his weekly Sunday feature, Equal Time, Phil Mushnick discusses the scheduling of an April night game at Citi Field. You can read the entire article here, but if your link-clicking finger is on the disabled list, I will copy and paste the article below. The title of the post is "April Night Game is Amazin'ly Stupid":

"The Mets' 2011 schedule perfectly fits the Bud Selig Era.

For example, if logic were applied what time would you schedule a home game against Washington on Saturday, April 9th? Early afternoon, 1 p.m., right? It's a night game. A night game on Saturday, April 9th. Now get this: Starting May 14 through Sept. 10, the Mets are not scheduled to play an early afternoon Saturday game, not home or away. There are a few 4:10 starts for FOX, but the rest are night games. Not even one traditional (sensible) 1 p.m. Saturday start for 18 consecutive Saturdays!"

Although scheduling a Saturday night game for early April in a cold weather city is unusual, there is a simple reason for this.

Look at the date. It's Saturday, April 9. When is Opening Day at Citi Field? Friday, April 8. Most teams schedule a day off after their home opener. They do this because Opening Day is usually the only game they can count on to be a sellout. Therefore, if the game is postponed because of poor weather, the game can be made up the following day, where it would still be the home opener and the team can still capitalize from the expected high attendance. Without that day off after Opening Day, the league would have to make the game up as part of an in-season doubleheader or find a mutual day off for the two teams to play the game.

Attendance at makeup games is usually far below sellout status. With attendance at Citi Field dropping in 2010, any game that has the potential to be a sellout becomes quite important to the team from a financial standpoint. Other than the Subway Series games against the Yankees, Opening Day might be the only guaranteed sellout at Citi Field in 2011.

However, with the league deciding to move away from its usual Monday Opening Day, the Mets will now be opening up the season in Florida on Friday, April 1. Their home opener is scheduled for one week later, also on a Friday. Scheduling a day off after the home opener would create a Saturday without a baseball game at Citi Field. Since teams always play on the weekends (the majority of scheduled off-days are on Monday or Thursday), the Mets would not be able to schedule an off-day on Saturday, April 9.

Therefore, the Mets had to make their first Saturday game at Citi Field a night game. In the event that the home opener is rained out (or snowed out), the game would more than likely be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader the following day (Saturday, April 9). The regularly scheduled night game would go on as scheduled at 7:10pm, but the rescheduled home opener would be played during the day on Saturday. It would still be the first home game of the season for the Mets, maintaining its Opening Day status, and would still attract a sellout crowd.

Had Phil Mushnick put some thought into his article before writing it, he would have realized what took me just a few minutes to explain. The Mets are not Amazin'ly stupid for scheduling a night game on April 9. They're actually doing the right thing, from both a business standpoint and for the sake of the fans who still want to go to Opening Day. It's too bad Mushnick couldn't do the right thing before submitting his article.