Mets Must Get Over The Four-and-a-Half Game Hump

If the Mets want to see this in October, they need to increase their division lead in August and September.  (AP Photo)

No lead in the division is safe in baseball.  If you were a Mets fan in 2007, then you know how true that statement is.  But some leads are more safe than others, and the Mets have proven that in seasons when they've qualified for the postseason.

The 2015 Mets currently hold a 4½-game lead over the floundering Washington Nationals.  New York has built its lead by winning 11 of its last 14 games, while Washington is in the throes of a 4-11 team slump.  But an extra inning loss to the Pirates last night prevented the Mets from increasing their lead to 5½ games.  And earlier in the season, when the Mets rolled off a franchise record-tying 11-game winning streak, they also held a 4½-game lead in the division.  However, they never went over that hump, standing pat at 4½ for nine straight days (April 23-May 1) before a loss to the Nationals on May 2 cut their lead to 3½ games.

Only twice in club history has the team held a lead in the division of more than 4½ games and failed to win a division title.  The 1972 Mets got off to a tremendous start, winning 31 of their first 43 games.  In late May, the team possessed a comfortable 6½-game lead in the NL East.  But when Rusty Staub was felled by a wayward pitch thrown by Braves pitcher (and future Met) George Stone in early June, the team crumbled.  In the three-month period from June 7 to September 7, the Mets went 34-50 and finished double-digit games behind the eventual division champion Pittsburgh Pirates.

Thirty-five years later, the Mets famously held a seven-game lead with 17 games left in the season, only to see the Philadelphia Phillies take advantage of a Mets team that suddenly forgot how to pitch effectively.  Philly won all seven of their match-ups with the Mets in the season's final five weeks and Mets pitchers allowed an unfathomable 131 runs in the team's last 19 games to cough up the seemingly insurmountable lead.

Other than the 1972 and 2007 campaigns, New York has held a division lead of at least five games in four other campaigns.  They won the division crown in each of those seasons (1969, 1986, 1988, 2006).  They also held a lead of five or more games in the wild card race in 2000 and advanced to the World Series that year.

The Mets have had leads in the division of at least one game many times in franchise history.  And since the wild card came into play in 1995, they have been the leader in that race many times.  But just having a lead in the division or wild card race after the season is well underway hasn't guaranteed October baseball in Flushing.  Let's look at five not-so-memorable instances where this occurred.

• In 1970, the defending World Series champion Mets held a two-game lead in the division when the calendar turned from June to July.  They ended the season six games behind the division-winning Pirates.

• In 1984, the Mets were 4½ games ahead of the Chicago Cubs on July 27.  They lost 11 games in the standings after that date to finish 6½ games behind the first place Cubs.

• The 1990 Mets were alone in first place as late as September 3.  But a 14-16 finish doomed them to second place, four games behind the division champion Pirates.

• Eight years later, the 1998 Mets held a one-game lead in the wild card race with just five games left in the season.  They lost each of their last five games to finish 1½ games behind the eventual wild card-winning Cubs.

• In 2008, one year after blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games to play, the Mets were on top of the NL East by a season-high 3½ games on September 10.  They were also 2½ games up on the Milwaukee Brewers for the wild card as late as September 20, when the season was down to its final eight games.  They failed to qualify for the playoffs.

What do the 1970, 1984, 1990, 1998 and 2008 Mets have in common?  Neither of them were able to stretch their division or wild card leads to more than 4½ games.  That's the same number of games the current Mets haven't been able to surpass in their quest to fight off the Washington Nationals.

The New York Mets have rarely missed the playoffs when they've had a lead of at least five games.  Only the 1972 and 2007 Mets know what it's like to watch the postseason on television after having such a lead.  But give the Mets a lead in the division or wild card race of more than seven games at any point in the season and they've never failed to crash the postseason party.

Entering Saturday's game against the Pirates, the 2015 Mets have been in first place for 64 of the season's 131 days.  They've held a 4½-game lead in the division for 11 of those days.  They've yet to hold a lead of at least five games.  History tells us that increasing that lead would subsequently increase the Mets' odds of making the playoffs.  If the lead were to grow by just three more games, the Mets would be in rarefied air - air that has only been breathed in by the 1969, 1986, 1988 and 2006 Mets.  Those were the only four teams that held a division lead of more than seven games.  You may recall those teams by their other name - NL East champions.

If the 2015 Mets want to join those squads as division champs, they just need to get over the 4½-game hump.  The longer they wait to get over it, the more nerve-wracking the final seven weeks of the season will be. 
  

The Dog Days of Summer Might Be Happy Days For the Mets

The Mets hope to provide both bark and bite in the month of August.

The dog days of summer are upon us.  And while the month after the All-Star break is usually the time when some baseball teams start to fade, this is the time when the Mets have to heat up if they want to pass the Washington Nationals to claim an unlikely division title.

The month of July was supposed to be the big test for the Mets.  New York faced all three National League division leaders in the month (Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles) and two of the league's wild card contenders (San Francisco, Chicago), yet still managed to record more wins than losses in the month, going 13-12 to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Mets managed to gain 1½ games on the Nationals in July, as Washington stumbled to an 11-13 record in the month.

Now that the calendar has shifted to August, the schedule becomes much softer for the Mets.  They began the month with a thrilling, come-from-behind, Duda-powered victory over the Nationals, and after tonight's series finale against Washington, the schedule is loaded with sub-.500 team after sub-.500 team.

Beginning with Monday's game against the Miami Marlins, the Mets play 31 games over the next five weeks.  The only teams they face that currently have a winning record between tomorrow and Labor Day are the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles.  New York will host Pittsburgh from August 14-16, followed by a two-game series in Baltimore on August 18 and 19.  However, it should be noted that the Pirates have a losing record on the road (25-26), which is where they would find themselves when they take on the Mets at Citi Field in two weeks, while the Orioles are above .500 with a 53-50 record, or half a game behind the Mets, who are 54-50.

That leaves 26 out of 31 games against the likes of the Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox between tomorrow and September 6.  The combined record of those five teams is 225-296, which suits the Mets just fine, as they have been feasting this season against teams they have a better record than, going 35-20 against those clubs.

While the Mets play just five of their next 31 games against teams that are currently below .500, the Nationals have to play ten games against the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals - all on the road - between tomorrow and Labor Day.  Those three teams are a combined 53 games above .500 and are 105-57 in their home games.  It should be noted that the Nationals are three games under .500 on the road this year.

The Mets have suffered some heartbreaking losses this year, but have still managed to remain in the hunt for their first division title since 2006.  They survived July, gaining ground on the first place Nationals despite playing an arduous schedule.  Over the next five weeks, the pendulum swings decidedly in their favor, as they face second division team after second division team - teams that shipped off several of their best players at the trade deadline - while the Nats have to travel to face some of the best teams the league has to offer.

The hottest days of the year could feature some of the best baseball played by the Mets since the team moved to Citi Field in 2009.  The Mets must take advantage of their upcoming soft schedule if they don't want to melt away in the N.L. East standings.

Seasons Change; The Mets Don't

Photo by Joel Raskin

Have you been feeling a crispness to the air recently?  That’s not unusual, as the book officially closes on summer at 10:49 AM Saturday.  Unfortunately, it’s also not unusual that summer ended prematurely for the Mets and their fans for the fourth consecutive season.  Not since Shea Stadium’s final days have the Mets still been playing for something other than personal goals once summer turned to fall in late September.

Fans in cities that normally focus on football once the calendar turns to September, such as Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland, are gearing up for the stretch run, as the Orioles, Pirates and A’s are all in the hunt for a postseason berth.  Fans in Washington are looking forward to their first trip to the playoffs since 1933, when the Senators won their last American League pennant.

What are Mets fans excited about these days?  Well, there’s R.A. Dickey’s quest for a 20-win season and the Cy Young Award.  There’s also David Wright’s quest to surpass Ed Kranepool and become the franchise’s all-time leader in hits.  To a lesser extent (meaning that this is something only stat geeks such as myself would be salivating over), there’s also Wright and Daniel Murphy both trying to erase Bernard Gilkey’s name atop the single season doubles leaderboard.  (For all you non-geeks out there, Bernard Gilkey has held the franchise record for doubles since 1996, when he collected 44 two-base hits.  Wright and Murphy have 40 and 37 doubles, respectively.)  That is what Mets fans have to look forward to over the final two weeks of the regular season.

Barring a franchise-record 15-game winning streak to end the season, the Mets will finish below .500 for the fourth straight year.  The last time they had such a streak of futility, Ruben Tejada was in kindergarten learning his ABCs and 123s (hopefully not learning how to combine the letter “E” with the number “6”).  Not since the dark days of 1991-1996 had the Mets gone through at least four seasons without having at least one winning campaign.  Fans stayed away in droves then.  Now the Mets have to offer free admission to kids under 12 and discounted ducats for fans who bring in Pepsi products to guarantee that the turnstiles will keep a-turnin’.

On Saturday, the seasons will go through their quarterly change.  In addition, a number of major league teams with recent histories of losing are also undergoing a change.  But the more things change, the more the Mets stay the same.  If the people associated with the team - from ownership to the general manager to the manager to the players to Willie the barking hot dog vendor - don’t make a concerted effort to change how they go about doing their jobs, nothing is going to change for the Mets.

While other teams are bringing excitement back to their starving-for-success fan bases, the Mets are just going through the motions.  Again.  It’s becoming a tired old story around Citi Field these days.

Pennant Races Are Heating Up On Labor Day

Photo by William Perlman/The Star-Ledger

Today is Labor Day, a day that celebrates the sacrifices and contributions of the men and women in the American work force.  But to baseball fans, it's a different kind of holiday, as it marks the unofficial beginning of the final month of the season, a time when pennant races and wild card chases heat up just as summer temperatures cool down.

No one will soon forget the incredible final month of the 2011 season, especially Game No. 162, when four games decided the wild card winners in each league.  It seemed like the entire country was going back and forth between Cardinals-Astros, Braves-Phillies, Rays-Yankees and Red Sox-Orioles.

With the addition of an extra wild card team in each league this year, those games would have been meaningless, as both the Cardinals and Braves would have made the playoffs in the National League and the Rays and Red Sox would have qualified in the American League, regardless of the outcomes of their 162nd games.  But just because there is an extra wild card to be won in either league doesn't mean this September is going to be any less exciting than last September.  In fact, it might be more compelling this year.

In the American League, the upstart Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles currently hold the two wild card spots.  But the Rays are only 1½ games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot, while the Angels are only 3½ games back.  In the American League Central, the Tigers and White Sox are both two games behind the Orioles, but both teams are fighting it out for the division title.

No first-place team in the junior circuit has a lead in their division of more than three games.  The Yankees lead the East by two games over Baltimore.  The Tigers and White Sox are deadlocked atop the Central.  The two-time defending American League champion Texas Rangers have the best record in the league, but are clinging to a three-game division lead over the A's.

This is how tight the division and wild card races are.  The Rangers currently have the top seed in the American League with a 79-54 record.  The Tampa Bay Rays are only 6½ games behind them with a 73-61 mark.  But the Rays would fail to qualify for the postseason if the season ended today, while the Rangers would have home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.

Half of the fourteen teams in the American League are either in first place or within 3½ games of first.  Another team, the Los Angeles Angels, are not as close to the division lead, but are within 3½ games of the second wild card.  That's eight of the 14 teams still very much alive in the American League playoff race.

Both leagues have plenty of teams fighting it out for playoff spots.

The National League division races aren't as tight as the ones in the American League, with Washington leading the East by 6½ games, Cincinnati holding a 9½-game lead in the Central and San Francisco taking command of the West by 4½ games, but there are still many teams alive for the wild card spots.

As of today, the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals are the holders of the two wild card spots in the National League.  But the 72-62 Cardinals have two teams appearing in their rear view mirror, as the 72-63 Dodgers (a mere half-game back) and 70-63 Pirates (1½ games back) are trying to send the defending World Series champions home.

Speaking of the defending World Series champions, on Labor Day last year, the Cardinals were 8½ games behind the Braves for the wild card.  As we all know, the Cardinals made up that entire deficit and passed the Braves on the final day of the regular season on their way to an unexpected World Series title.  Why is this relevant in 2012?  Because that gives hope to the Milwaukee Brewers (6½ games behind St. Louis), Arizona Diamondbacks (also 6½ games back) and yes, even the New York Mets, who are currently eight games behind St. Louis for the second wild card spot entering their three-game series against the Redbirds today.

Thirty teams.  Ten playoff spots.  Including the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Mets, there are 16 teams within eight games of one of those ten playoff spots.  That's more than half of major league baseball still trying to crash the postseason party.

Summer might be coming to an end, but the heat isn't going away from the playoff races in both leagues.  In fact, it looks like it's only going to get hotter between now and Game No. 162.  Fasten your seatbelts.  It's going to be one heck of a ride.

Mets Must Avoid The Second Half Blues

The All-Star Break represents the unofficial end of the first half of the baseball season.  Going into this year's break, the Mets have a 46-40 record.  They are 4½ games behind the Washington Nationals for first place in the National League East and a half-game behind Atlanta for the second wild card spot.

If the Mets are going to be serious contenders in September, they're going to have to continue playing as well as they did in the first half, if not better.  The Mets have shown no signs of coming apart at the seams, but then again, they didn't show signs of doing so in each of the last two seasons either.  Now if you catch yourself saying "but I don't remember the Mets being competitive over the last few seasons", you'll have to step aside and allow me to retort.

In 2011, the Mets were also above .500 at the All-Star Break with a 46-45 record.  Once they returned from their four-day break, the Mets proceeded to go 31-40 over the season's final 71 games.  Similarly, in 2010, the Mets went into their summer hiatus with an even better 48-40 mark.  Then they went out west after the break and tanked, losing nine of 11 en route to a 31-43 second half record.

But second half sleepwalks are nothing new for the Mets.  In fact, they've been doing in throughout their half-century of existence.  Let's look at the Mets' record in each of their first 50 seasons prior to the All-Star Break and compare it to their second halves.  The winning percentage for each half will also be included as part of this analysis.  Bold face and orange color denotes the half with the higher winning percentage.

• 1962: First Half (23-59, .280); Second Half (17-61, .218)
• 1963: First Half (29-55, .345); Second Half (22-56, .282)
• 1964: First Half (23-58, .284); Second Half (30-51, .370)
• 1965: First Half (29-56, .341); Second Half (21-56, .273)
• 1966: First Half (35-48, .422); Second Half (31-47, .397)
• 1967: First Half (31-47, .397); Second Half (30-54, .357)
• 1968: First Half (39-43, .476); Second Half (34-46, .425)
• 1969: First Half (53-39, .576); Second Half (47-23, .671)
• 1970: First Half (47-39, .547); Second Half (36-40, .474)
• 1971: First Half (46-40, .535); Second Half (37-39, .487)
• 1972: First Half (49-38, .563); Second Half (34-35, .493)
• 1973: First Half (42-51, .452); Second Half (40-28, .588)
• 1974: First Half (40-52, .435); Second Half (31-39, .443)
• 1975: First Half (43-42, .50588); Second Half (39-38, .50649)
• 1976: First Half (46-42, .523); Second Half (40-34, .541)
• 1977: First Half (37-55, .402); Second Half (27-43, .386)
• 1978: First Half (36-50, .419); Second Half (30-46, .395)
• 1979: First Half (38-49, .437); Second Half (25-50, .333)
• 1980: First Half (38-40, .487); Second Half (29-55, .345)
• 1981: First Half (17-34, .333); Second Half (24-28, .462)
• 1982: First Half (40-47, .460); Second Half (25-50, .333)
• 1983: First Half (30-50, .375); Second Half (38-44, .463)
• 1984: First Half (47-34, .580); Second Half (43-38, .531)
• 1985: First Half (50-36, .581); Second Half (48-28, .632)
• 1986: First Half (59-25, .702); Second Half (49-29, .628)
• 1987: First Half (47-40, .540); Second Half (45-30, .600)
• 1988: First Half (53-34, .609); Second Half (47-26, .644)
• 1989: First Half (45-39, .536); Second Half (42-36, .538)
• 1990: First Half (47-31, .603); Second Half (44-40, .524)
• 1991: First Half (46-34, .575); Second Half (31-50, .383)
• 1992: First Half (42-46, .477); Second Half (30-44, .405)
• 1993: First Half (27-60, .310); Second Half (32-43, .427)
• 1994: First Half (40-47, .460); Second Half (15-11, .577)
• 1995: First Half (25-44, .362); Second Half (44-31, .587)
• 1996: First Half (41-46, .471); Second Half (30-45, .400)
• 1997: First Half (48-38, .558); Second Half (40-36, .526)
• 1998: First Half (44-39, .530); Second Half (44-35, .557)
• 1999: First Half (50-39, .562); Second Half (47-27, .635)
• 2000: First Half (48-38, .558); Second Half (46-30, .605)
• 2001: First Half (38-51, .427); Second Half (44-29, .603)
• 2002: First Half (43-44, .494); Second Half (32-42, .432)
• 2003: First Half (40-53, .430); Second Half (26-42, .382)
• 2004: First Half (44-43, .506); Second Half (27-48, .360)
• 2005: First Half (44-44, .500); Second Half (39-35, .527)
• 2006: First Half (53-36, .596); Second Half (44-29, .603)
• 2007: First Half (48-39, .552); Second Half (40-35, .533)
• 2008: First Half (51-44, .537); Second Half (38-29, .567)
• 2009: First Half (42-45, .483); Second Half (28-47, .373)
• 2010: First Half (48-40, .545); Second Half (31-43, .419)
• 2011: First Half (46-45, .505); Second Half (31-40, .437)

In 28 of their first 50 seasons, the Mets' winning percentage in games played prior to the All-Star Break was higher than their winning percentage after the break.  This may not seem like much of a disparity, but let's dig a little deeper.

The Mets have finished above .500 in 23 of their first 50 seasons.  But this season marks the 25th time they've been at .500 or better at the All-Star Break.  The Mets have only had 22 second halves in which they finished with a winning record.  And when the Mets struggle in the second half ... boy, do they ever struggle!

Beginning in 1962, when the Mets' second half winning percentage was .062 lower in the second half compared to their first half winning percentage, the Mets have had 23 seasons in which their second half winning percentage was at least .040 lower than their first half winning percentage.  In all but five of the seasons in which the Mets' production fell off after the All-Star Break did they remain within .040 of their first half winning percentage.

Meanwhile, in only 13 seasons did the Mets improve by at least .040 from the first half to the second half.  The last time this occurred was in 2001, when the Mets were thirteen games under .500 at the break, but recovered to play over .600 ball during the second half of the season.

The Mets have always been a first half team.  In seven of their last ten seasons, they've performed better prior to the All-Star Break, only to crumble after the Midsummer Classic.  This season, the Mets are once again having a solid first half.  Will they continue to follow the precedent they've set over the past decade or will they finally rid themselves of the second half blues?  If the Mets are going to play meaningful games in September for the first time at Citi Field, they better make sure it's the latter.

 

Smoke And Mirrors (The National League Playoff Race)

The upcoming All-Star Break is what is traditionally considered to be the end of the first half of the season.  But being the stickler that I am for mathematical detail, I know that all teams in baseball have already passed the halfway point of the season, having played at least 81 games of their schedules.

Since teams now have less than half of their schedules remaining to be played, now would be a good time to start looking at the playoff race in the National League.  And what an odd race it's shaping out to be.  As of today, the three division winners in the NL would be the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers, with the two wild card spots being claimed by the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds.  The Mets are a half-game behind the Reds for the second wild card spot.  The Braves are a half-game behind the Mets and the Cardinals are a half-game behind the Braves.  Got that?  Good.  Because it just gets more confusing after that.

None of the five teams currently holding playoff spots made the playoffs last year.  The top two teams on the outside looking in (Mets, Braves) also failed to crash the 2011 postseason party.  Are those seven teams really that good to be competing for the right to extend their season well into October?  Or are they just winning with smoke and mirrors?

The Washington Nationals currently have the best record in the National League.  They have had this success while being in the lower half of the league in batting average, stolen bases, on-base percentage and runs scored.  As of today, Bryce Harper leads the team with a .283 batting average.  He is also the only regular on the team with an on-base percentage higher than .340.  Second baseman Danny Espinosa leads the team with 14 stolen bases, but he is one of only four Nationals who have stolen more than three bases.  Meanwhile, the Mets' Jordany Valdespin stole four bases in one game on Monday before being recalled to the majors this week.

The Nationals are winning with pitching, pitching and more pitching.  Washington leads the league with a 3.23 ERA.  None of their starters has an ERA above 3.73 and four of their relievers (Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, Sean Burnett, Ryan Mattheus) have ERAs below 2.00.  Those four pitchers have combined to allow 27 earned runs in 141.1 IP.  Compare that to former Met Manny Acosta, who allowed 29 earned runs BY HIMSELF in only 22 IP.

The only thing scarier than this photo of Manny Acosta was Manny Acosta's ERA.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the second-best record in the National League, one percentage point ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season since Willie Randolph was a Met ... as their second baseman!  Since Barry Bonds* defected to the land of BALCO following the 1992 campaign, the Pirates' best season was in 1997, when they finished in second place in the NL Central with a 79-83 record.  But with a 46-37 record this year, they might just finish with their best record in two decades.  As bad as the Nationals are offensively, the Pirates are even worse.  The team is batting .243 (13th in the NL) with a league-worst .298 on-base percentage.  They're also near the bottom of the league in runs scored (12th), hits (15th), doubles (13th), stolen bases (14th) and walks (15th).  But for all the flaws they might have, the Pirates are winning with the two Ps - power and pitching.

The Pirates have hit 85 HR, good for 6th in the NL.  They are led by third baseman Pedro Alvarez and centerfielder (and top MVP candidate) Andrew McCutchen, who have both hit 16 HR.  Utility player Garrett Jones has also shown impressive power in limited plate appearances, stroking a dozen home runs on the season.  Over 40% (137) of the Pirates' 329 runs have scored on home runs this year, which has offset the team's low on-base percentage.  In addition to their long ball prowess, the Pirates have also had exceptional pitching performances from unexpected sources.  James McDonald has pitched like a Cy Young Award candidate all year, going 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .197 batting average.  And seriously, who expected Yankee castoff A.J. Burnett to be 9-2 at this point of the season?  In the bullpen, Joel Hanrahan has saved 22 games and is on pace for his second straight 40-save season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were riding on MVP candidate Matt Kemp's coattails for the first month of the season en route to the best record in baseball.  Then Kemp went on the disabled list and the offense crashed harder than a Chicago Police Department cruiser chasing Jake and Elwood.  Take Kemp's numbers out of the Dodgers' team stats and the rest of the roster has combined for 37 HR in 2,661 at-bats.  That's worse than Joel Youngblood's power numbers as a Met (38 HR in 1,897 at-bats for the Mets from 1977 to 1982).  Despite the fact that Kemp has been out of action for nearly two months, his 28 RBI are still the second highest total on the team.  Simply stated, the Dodgers sans Kemp make the Nationals and Pirates look like offensive juggernauts.  But just like the Nats and Bucs, the Dodgers can claim one key strength - they can throw the baseball with the best of them.

Kemp and the Youngbloods - a much better name for a band than Hootie and the Blowfish.

The Dodgers are second to the Nationals in team ERA (3.26) and have an impressive front of the rotation with reigning Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw (6-5, 2.91 ERA. 1.06 WHIP) and former Met Chris Capuano (9-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).  To close games, they have one of the best young studs in the game in 24-year-old Kenley Jansen.  Jansen has 15 saves since becoming the team's closer in late April.  In his last 33 appearances, Jansen has been practically unhittable, holding opponents to a .111 batting average while compiling a 1.39 ERA.  For the year, Jansen has struck out almost half of the batters he's faced and has a phenomenal 14.3 K/9 IP rate, which is actually slightly lower than his 15.0 K/9 IP rate for his career.

The San Francisco Giants have no power (50 HR, good for next-to-last in the NL), strike out way too much (555 Ks, also next-to-last in the NL) and don't walk enough (239 BB; 13th in the NL).  They also lost their closer (Brian Wilson) to an injury and their ace (Tim Lincecum) has been lit up like the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree (6.08 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).  So how are they competing for the division in the NL West?  By beating up on the NL Central.

The Giants are 17-9 against the six teams in the Central division, but are a .500 team (29-29) against all other opponents.  The other four teams in the NL West are a combined 37-41 against the teams from the Midwest.  Of course, it's not just their dominance over their Central division foes that has kept the Giants in contention.  The three-headed pitching monster of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong have combined to go 26-11 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Giants.  Also, fill-in closer Santiago Casilla has been Brian Wilson-esque, racking up 21 saves with a 2.84 ERA.  And who actually expected Melky Cabrera to hit almost .360 in the first half of the season?

The Cincinnati Reds had recent playoff experience two years ago, but stumbled in 2011.  Now they're back in contention for their second division title in three years after failing to make the playoffs in every season since 1995.  They're not succeeding because they get on base.  In fact, their .248 team batting average and .314 on-base percentage puts them 10th in the National League in both categories.  They're not succeeding because of their starting pitching.  Other than All-Star snub Johnny Cueto (9-5, 2.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), the rest of the staff is mediocre at best.  Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey have yet to miss a start (the Reds have only used five starting pitchers all year), but perhaps they should since all they've been able to produce is a combined 20-19 record with a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  But they are succeeding greatly in two places.

The Reds hit for power.  Lots of it.  Other than catcher Ryan Hanigan, the other seven regular starters have all hit at least eight home runs.  They also hit a ton of doubles.  Seven players have hit at least 11 doubles, with three of those doubles already having reached 20 doubles.  Joey Votto leads the planet in two-base hits with 35, putting him on pace to break Earl Webb's 81-year-old record of 67 doubles in a season.  In addition to the extra-base excellence, the Reds also have a sneaky good bullpen.  Of the eight pitchers the Reds have used in relief this year, only one (Bill Bray) has an ERA above 4.00.  Five of the eight relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo, Sean Marshall, Alfredo Simon, J.J. Hoover) have ERAs of 3.00 or lower.  They also strike out a ton of batters, fanning 243 batters in 215.1 IP.

The Braves and the Mets are currently on the outside looking in, but both teams have gaping holes that leave people wondering how they've been able to contend for the majority of the season.  The Braves do not have anyone on the team with more than 50 RBIs yet.  Michael Bourn has nearly half of the team's stolen bases.  (Bourn has 23 SB; the rest of the team has 26.)  Take out the lost-for-the-season Brandon Beachy (2.00 ERA) and closer Craig Kimbrel (1.45 ERA), and you're left with a team that has a 4.31 ERA.  That's not a very good team.

Forget the planet.  The Mets have the worst bullpen in the Milky Way.  No other bullpen is even close.  The Mets' bullpen ERA has been at or above 5.00 for most of the season.  Plus Ike Davis has hit like Mario Mendoza.  Plus Lucas Duda's would be the worst fielder on Charlie Brown's team.  Plus the Mets have used 22 pitchers this season (the Reds have only used 13).  So why are the Braves and Mets competing?  Each team can do something better than anyone else in the league.

Sorry, Charlie.  We didn't mean to insult your team by comparing their defense to Lucas Duda's.

The Braves have the best road record in the National League.  At 24-17, they have a winning percentage of .585 away from the House that Ted Built.  The ability to win on the road has kept the Braves from languishing in the depths currently occupied by the Marlins and Phillies in the NL East.  (Both Miami and Philadelphia have losing records on the road.)  What about the Mets?

The Mets hit better than any team in baseball when the number '2' is flashing under the word 'outs' on the scoreboard.  The Mets have scored nearly half of their runs (185 out of 391) and have hit nearly 50% of their home runs (33 out of 71) after two men have been retired in an inning.  Furthermore, with multiple men on base, the Mets have hit an astounding .309 (134-for-434), with a .376 on-base percentage and .493 slugging percentage.  Of course, having a top three in the rotation of R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana and Jonathon Niese doesn't hurt either.

So in conclusion, there isn't a dominant team in the National League.  You won't find a 1986 Mets in this year's crop of contestants.   Every division race is still up for grabs.  Both wild card spots have multiple teams gunning for them.  The teams that make up the top half of the National League all have good reasons for being up there.  But they also have some pretty big holes they'll need to fill if they want to remain in contention throughout the second half of the season.

The Mets have been winning with smoke, mirrors and two-out hits for three months now.  But what happens if the mirror breaks?  What happens if the fire is put out?  What happens if those two-out hits find opponents' gloves?  The team needs to repair its leaky bullpen, add a potent right-handed bench not named Jason Bay and hope the starting rotation holds up or three more months.  If they don't, then they'll need more smoke, more mirrors and more teams to fold so that they can still be playing meaningful games in September for the first time since 2008.  It's certainly going to make for an exciting second half of the season.