R.A. Dickey vs. Gio Gonzalez: Stats You Didn't Know

R.A. Dickey.  Gio Gonzalez.  Both pitchers are gunning for the Cy Young Award.  Only one will get it (assuming we don't have a tie a la the 1979 NL MVP vote that got Keith Hernandez a co-MVP Award).

You can go to any site and find comparisons between the two.  Anyone will tell you that Gonzalez leads Dickey by one win and that Dickey leads Gonzalez in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, shutouts and complete games.  But what about the stats you didn't know that should swing the Cy Young vote completely over to Dickey?

Here are those stats.  Once you read them, you'll have no doubt that R.A. Dickey should claim the top prize as the best pitcher in the National League.

R.A. Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher, but is only averaging 1.7 walks per start.  Only five pitchers in the National League (Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Harang, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Zambrano) have walked more batters than Gio Gonzalez.

Despite not possessing a 90-mph fastball, R.A. Dickey has allowed only three stolen bases in six attempts.  Meanwhile, opposing base runners have a 92% success rate against Gio Gonzalez, going 11-for-12 against the Nationals' ace.

Gio Gonzalez has been lifted from three games this year in which the Nationals did not have the lead at the time of his removal, but got credit for the win when his offense gave him the lead in the half inning immediately following his removal.  Dickey has only earned one win in this way.  If not for the Nationals' timely hitting after his removal, Gonzalez would only have 17 wins, one less than the 18 Dickey would have if not for the sole occasion the Mets bailed him out.

The Nationals have scored seven runs or more in half of Gonzalez's 20 victories.  The Mets have scored five runs or less in thirteen of Dickey's 19 wins.

Gio Gonzalez has 21 quality starts (six or more innings pitched allowing three earned runs or less) out of his 31 starts.  He has also failed to get through the sixth inning in seven starts.  Dickey has 25 quality starts and has pitched at least six innings in all but two of his 31 starts.

Finally, Gio Gonzalez has 20 wins, but he's done it for the the team with the best record in baseball.  R.A. Dickey has won one less game than Gonzalez for a team that has 24 fewer wins.  Similarly, Gonzalez has two more losses on a 59-loss team than Dickey has for an 83-loss team.

When in doubt, always vote for the guy who makes a Dickeyface when he releases a pitch.

More often that not, the MVP Award goes to a player with the most impressive numbers on a team that's at or near the top of its division.  This is not always the case for the recipient of the Cy Young Award.

Five of the last six Cy Young Award winners in the National League played for teams that failed to make the playoffs, with the sole exception being Roy Halladay in 2010.  Two of those five winners pitched for teams that finished with losing records.  (Brandon Webb won the award in 2006 for the 76-86 Diamondbacks, while Tim Lincecum earned his hardware in 2008 for a 72-90 Giants team.)

The award is not called the Most Valuable Pitcher Award.  It's called the Cy Young Award.  It's given to the best pitcher in each league.  Gio Gonzalez has had an excellent season, one that is usually worthy of the league's top pitching honor, but R.A. Dickey has been the best pitcher in the National League this year.

Let's hope the voters consider every bit of statistical information available to them before they cast their votes and don't turn the Cy Young Award into the MVP (Most Valuable Pitcher) Award.  They're more than welcome to use the statistical facts from this piece to help them make their decision.

Joey's Soapbox: Predictions For A Yankee-less, Phillie-less World Series

Greetings, Mets fans! Welcome to the latest edition of Joey's Soapbox, where today I will give you my predictions for this year's World Series to be played between the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants.

If you recall, last week I correctly predicted that both the Rangers and the Giants would be representing their respective leagues in the Fall Classic. (Click here if you don't believe me.)

Now I have the difficult task of picking a winner for this year's World Series. It was tough last year because I wanted both the Yankees and Phillies to lose. I hoped for Armageddon to arrive before the Series began so that we would be spared having to watch one of our hated rivals win a championship. Needless to say, the Yankees won their millionth World Series title and the Phillies were number two, which is the most appropriate number I can think of for them.

This year, I was rooting for both the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants to knock off those two teams from the previous paragraph, (I can't even make myself say their dreaded names again for fear that I'll lose my appetite.) so now that they have, how can I root against either one of them?

Regardless, I am a professional. I must perform the task at hand. You came to this blog because you either wanted my World Series predictions or you Googled "gluteus maximus" and after the first dozen or so matches, Studious Metsimus showed up and you clicked on it out of morbid curiosity. (What I'm curious about is why you would be searching for "gluteus maximus" to begin with...)

Therefore, without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2010 World Series.


World Series

Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants

Because the National League won their first All-Star Game since before Al Gore invented the Internet, the World Series will begin in San Francisco.

The Giants were 49-32 at AT&T Park, while the Rangers were 39-42 on the road. However, Texas' road difficulties did not carry into the postseason, as the Rangers have played brilliantly away from home, winning five out of six road games against the Rays and Yankees in the ALDS and ALCS.

Both teams parlayed hot months into a division title. Texas was 21-6 in June, but was barely above .500 (69-66) in the other five months. Similarly, San Francisco took apart the league in July (20-8) and September (18-8), but split their other 108 games, going 54-54 in the other four months.

Texas has great hitters. If Josh Hamilton doesn't hurt you, Vladimir Guerrero will. If Guerrero doesn't come through, Nelson Cruz will. The list goes on and on. The Giants don't have that kind of offensive firepower, but they might not need it if their pitching staff shows up for duty.

The starting rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner is among the best in the league. Yes, Texas has Cliff Lee, who is already searching for a bank large enough to stash away his hunka-hunka burnin' cash that he is sure to receive once he becomes a free agent. But although C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter have all blossomed this season, they're still not in the class of the awesome foursome from San Francisco.

Another thing to consider is the bullpens. Neftali Feliz had an incredible rookie season, but he has not been tested in October. Because every Ranger victory in the postseason has been by at least four runs, Feliz has not pitched in a save situation yet.

Meanwhile, Brian Wilson has racked up five saves in nine scoreless innings of work. If the teams are deadlocked in the late innings, Wilson's pressure-packed successes in this postseason will prove invaluable to the Giants, whereas we're still unsure if Feliz's butterflies will get the best of him if he's thrust into a tight ballgame.

As I said before, this series is tough to predict, but since I'm contractually obligated to do so (although my colleague still hasn't shown me this contract...I might have to talk to my agent about that), I will say that the World Series will go six games. Unfortunately, both teams will have won three of those games.

Who will win Game 7? It will be the...Oops! Apparently, it's Bedtime for Beartran. Too bad. Guess I won't be able to tell you that tonight. Besides, does it really matter who wins this World Series?

As Mets fans, we're all winners because we don't have to watch Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and C(onstantly) C(hewing) Sabathia playing this year. We also don't have to hear Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane "The Cryin' Hawaiian" Victorino whine about every call that doesn't go their way. That, my friends, is why this will be a true Fall Classic. Enjoy the World Series!

Win Some, Lose Some, Draw None

It has been well-documented that attendance at Citi Field suffered a significant drop-off from its inaugural season in 2009 to the just-completed 2010 season. Last year, a total of 3,168,571 tickets were sold to Mets home games. That number dropped to 2,559,738 in 2010.

The significant drop-off in home attendance can be attributed to numerous things, such as the luster of the new ballpark wearing off and the team's second consecutive losing season.

The new ballpark might have been enough to attract fans in 2009, but a good product on the field is what usually keeps fans in the seats. The Mets were not able to give the fans a good product on the field, so they didn't show up as often as they did in 2009, averaging only 32,401 fans per game in 2010.

Fair enough. The home fans had no desire to invest their time and money on a team that couldn't compete for a post-season spot. So how do you explain what happened to attendance figures once the Mets went on the road?

Believe it or not, out of the sixteen teams in the National League, the Mets finished dead last in road attendance. That's right, my friends. The Mets drew fewer fans on the road than the Washington Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll give you a moment to take that in...

...moment's up. The Mets drew an average of 29,318 fans per road game, slightly lower than the Washington Nationals' average of 29,664. No team in the National League brought fewer people to the ballpark on the road than the New York Mets. (By contrast, the New York Yankees led the major leagues in road attendance with an average of 34,939 fans per game.)

So what could possibly be the reason for the lack of interest in Mets road games? There may be a few.

The Mets don't have the marquee name that fans in other cities want to see. The Nationals, despite their last-place finish in the NL East, had phenom Stephen Strasburg on the mound for 12 starts, five of which were on the road. The following numbers are the attendance figures for Strasburg's five road games, followed by the average home attendance figures per game at that particular venue:

• June 13 @Cle: 32,876 (17,385)
• June 28 @Atl: 42,889 (30,989)
• July 16 @Fla: 27,037 (18,825)
• July 21 @Cin: 37,868 (25,438)
• Aug. 21 @Phi: 45,266 (45,027)

The average attendance for those five Strasburg road games was 37,133, which was 7,469 more than for an average Washington Nationals road game. Other than the road game in Philadelphia, which normally sells out all home games regardless of the opponent, the other four teams saw significant increases in their attendance in games that were started by Stephen Strasburg.

Who do the Mets have that fans in other cities want to see? Johan Santana? David Wright? Jose Reyes? Although they're all good players, they no longer have the superstar label attached to them. Fans don't stop what they're doing to see Johan throw another change-up and they don't rush back from the concession stands whenever Wright or Reyes step up to the plate.

The Mets haven't had a must-see, get back in your seat-type player since the early days of Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. Until they bring up a can't miss phenom (something they don't currently have in their minor league system) or sign/trade for a potential Hall-of-Famer in the prime of his career, the Mets won't be appealing to fans on the road, especially if they continue to be a mediocre team. This brings me to the other reason.

The Mets are just not interesting enough for fans in other cities to come watch them play. Among the leaders in road attendance in 2010 were the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, Rockies and Braves, all of whom either made the post-season or contended for a playoff berth. Two non-contending teams (Dodgers and Cubs) finished in the top five in road attendance, but those teams have huge followings nationwide and will draw fans on the road regardless of their won-loss record.

Teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox can boast recent success and teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Giants have the history that attracts fans to the gates. The Mets can't claim either recent success or the long-term history that the other teams can.

Let's say the Mets are playing at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. A Pirates fan doesn't have much to root for on his/her own team, so he/she might choose to attend a Bucs game depending on the opponent.


If you were a Pirates fan, who would you rather pay to see? The perennial contenders from St. Louis, featuring the most complete hitter in the game, Albert Pujols? The cross-state rivals from Philadelphia, who have All-Stars wherever you look? The westerners from San Francisco, who can give you a Cy Young-caliber performance from Tim Lincecum and others? Or the New York Mets?

More than likely, that fan would choose any of the other teams listed above before choosing to see the Mets, especially if he or she is there to see players not dressed in Pirates uniforms.

Mets fans in New York are not going to come out to Citi Field in droves until management can put a competitive team on the field that will be playing meaningful games well into September and perhaps October. Similarly, if the Mets don't give fans in other cities a good enough reason to come out to the ballpark other than the promise of mediocrity and good, but not great players, empty seats will continue to follow them wherever they go.

Looks like the only place the Mets are making themselves at home is at the bottom of the road attendance figures.

San Francisco Owes A Giant Thank You To The Mets

Leapin' lizards! For the first time since Barry Bonds left his syringe in San Francisco, the Giants are champions of the National League West. They won their first division title since 2003 (and only their sixth NL West title overall) by defeating the San Diego Padres on the final day of the regular season, capping a tremendous second half that saw them rise from mediocrity to the top of the division.

At the midway point of the season, the Giants were 41-40 and were a season high 7½ games behind the Padres. They were also 4½ games out of the wild card lead, with five teams ahead of them.

The final week before the All-Star Break saw the Giants playing the lowly Brewers and Nationals. They took both series to inch closer in the wild card race, but were still in fourth place in the NL West, with the Padres, Dodgers and Rockies ahead of them. Enter the New York Mets.

The Mets played better than expected in the first half of the season. At the All-Star Break, they were 48-40, which put them a game ahead of the San Francisco Giants in the wild card race. The two teams then played each other in the first series after the break. Everything changed after that series was completed.

The Giants took the first three games of the four-game series at AT&T Park, shutting out the Mets in the first two contests. In fact, the Mets were held scoreless by Giants pitchers for the first 24 innings of the series. The Mets did manage to salvage the final game of the series, but even then, they needed a blown call by home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi to win it.

Cuzzi called Giants' pinch-hitter Travis Ishikawa out at home when replays showed that the tag by Henry Blanco was late. The gaffe prevented what would have been the winning run from scoring in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Mets went on to win the game in ten innings.

The series with the Mets was the beginning of a stretch where the Giants won 15 out of 19 games to move into the wild card lead. The hot streak also moved them to within one game of the Padres for the division lead.

As Mets fans all know, the trip to San Francisco was the beginning of a 2-9 road trip that saw the Mets get swept in Arizona, followed by three losses in four games in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Giants won two out of three in Los Angeles and followed that up with a four-game sweep in Arizona. The Mets never got close to the Giants again.

The series with the Mets seemed to awaken the Giants' pitchers, who were already among the best in the National League prior to the All-Star Break. Consider these first half versus second half numbers for the Giants' starting rotation and bullpen.

• Starting Pitchers (before break): 34-30, 3.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
• Starting Pitchers (after break): 27-25, 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

• Relief Pitchers (before break): 13-11, 3.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
• Relief Pitchers (after break): 18-4, 2.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

The starters showed a nice improvement in the ERA and WHIP department, but the bullpen took things to another level. They were nearly unhittable in the second half, led by closer Brian Wilson, who led the National League in saves and finished with a career-best 1.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Pitching wins championships and the Giants have plenty of pitching. The top four pitchers in the Giants' rotation (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner) all had ERAs of 3.40 or less. No other staff in baseball can lay claim to four starters with ERAs as low as the Giants' quartet. In fact, Lincecum, who is the staff ace and the winner of the last two National League Cy Young Awards, is the starter with the 3.40 ERA. (However, he is the only one of the foursome who can claim to being the love child of Jennifer Aniston and Mitch from "Dazed and Confused".)


The Phillies might look like the team to beat in the National League, especially after today's no-hitter by Roy Halladay, but Halladay can't pitch every game. The Giants have four quality starters, all of whom are capable of keeping their opponents to a low hit total. (Like Halladay, Jonathan Sanchez can also claim a no-hitter on his résumé.)

Watch out, Atlanta. Don't start selling World Series tickets yet, Phillies. The Giants are red hot and their pitchers are leading the way. They took off once the Mets came into town and have never looked back. Therefore, on behalf of the Mets, I have two words to say to the Giants.

You're welcome.