A Curious Comparison Between Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera

Maybe this is why Jonathan Papelbon gets no respect.  He's a catcher fondler.  (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)

Disclaimer:  I know no one compares to Mariano Rivera.  Without question, Rivera was the best closer in the history of the game.  Even we Mets fans can admit that without cringing.  But the point of this blog post is to point out a stunning similarity between the careers of Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon.  I respect Rivera.  I hate Papelbon.  But those numbers tell quite a story - a story that I will share right now...


Jonathan Papelbon is 33 years old, an age when most players begin to enter their "past-their-prime" years.  Papelbon has had a solid career, but no one has ever thought of him as the best closer in the game.  Meanwhile, back in 2003, Mariano Rivera was also in his age 33 season, but by then everyone considered him the top fireman in baseball.

Papelbon doesn't have Rivera's reputation as being the dominant closer of his day, but looking at their stats through their age 33 season, we may have to think of Papelbon a little differently.

Here are the key stats for both Papelbon and Rivera, looking at Papelbon's entire career and Rivera's career through the 2003 season - the year in which he pitched as a 33-year-old.  The similarities, as you'll be able to see, are quite shocking.

• Papelbon: 549 GP, 299 saves, 2.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 676 K, 153 BB, 185 ERA+, 2.69 FIP
• Rivera: 512 GP, 283 saves, 2.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 582 K, 177 BB, 186 ERA+, 2.94 FIP

Papelbon has pitched in 37 more games through his age 33 season than Rivera did, which explains his 16 save lead over the future Hall of Fame closer.  But Papelbon has a better ERA, lower WHIP and has nearly 100 more strikeouts than Rivera did at age 33.  Papelbon also has better control than Rivera, as evidenced by the two dozen fewer walks despite pitching in more games than Rivera.  Furthermore, Papelbon has a lower FIP than Rivera and has a nearly identical ERA+.

Now let's look at postseason numbers, which is where Rivera cemented his career as a Hall of Famer.  Through 2003, Rivera had a mindboggling 0.75 ERA and a similar 0.75 WHIP.  He also recorded 30 saves and allowed opposing hitters to post a .176/.208/.241 slash line.  Papelbon has not pitched nearly as much in the postseason as Rivera did, which is more the fault of his teams than the individual, but in 18 postseason appearances, he has a 1.00 ERA and 0.815 WHIP.  And what about his slash line?  Well, that's a Rivera-esque .154/.220/.209.  Or perhaps I should say Rivera has a Papelbon-esque postseason slash line?

Before you forget that this is a Mets site, let's consider one other closer's numbers through his age 33 season.  He began his Mets career at age 34, but by that time, his pitching statistics were just as good, if not better, than both Papelbon and Rivera.  Let's look at the career numbers of Billy Wagner through 2005, the year he began as a 33-year-old.

• Wagner: 584 GP, 284 saves, 2.40 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 840 K, 217 BB, 182 ERA+, 2.77 FIP

Now you can see why former Mets general manager Omar Minaya was adamant about bringing Wagner into the fold.  His numbers were virtually identical to what Rivera produced through his age 33 season and are right on par with what Papelbon has accomplished.  But the reason why my main comparison is between Papelbon and Rivera and not all three pitchers is because Wagner - to put it bluntly - sucked in the postseason.  Through his age 33 season, Wagner posted a 9.64 ERA in October and allowed hitters to bat .364 against him.

No one will ever confuse Jonathan Papelbon with Mariano Rivera.  Rivera posted a major league record 652 saves and was undoubtedly the best relief pitcher in postseason history.  But through age 33, Papelbon and Rivera have been virtually the same pitcher.  And although Papelbon's total postseason numbers aren't as gaudy as Rivera's because his teams have not been annual playoff participants, his October averages (ERA, WHIP, BAA, OBP, SLG) are quite comparable to the Sandman.

As Mets fans, we may hate Jonathan Papelbon.  We may also make fun of him because he gave up game-winning home runs to non-prime-time-players Omir Santos and Jordany Valdespin.  But he deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Mariano Rivera, at least as far as his accomplishments through his age 33 season are concerned.

Papelbon may not continue to dominate until he's 43 like Rivera did.  And he may never appear in as many postseason games.  But as loath as I am to admit it, he's far better than most of us would like to admit, even if he does like to grope his catcher at times.

Phillies Tell Their Manager To Get The Fuqua Out

"You can stop right there, Charlie.  I know your firing is totally Fuqua-ed up."

Charles Fuqua Manuel is the winningest manager in the 130-plus year history of the Philadelphia Phillies.  The team from the city of Brotherly Love never posted a losing record in any of Manuel's first eight seasons at the helm.  But with a 53-67 record through Thursday's games, Manuel was relieved of his duties by Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr.  His replacement on an interim basis will be Hall of Famer (and former Phillies draft pick) Ryne Sandberg.

At Studious Metsimus, we find it sacrilegious to defend anyone who is (or was) employed by the team with the most losses in baseball history.  However, we do feel for Manuel for losing his job over something that's not his fault.

Did Charlie Manuel give Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million contract extension?  Howard has combined to produce 25 homers and 99 RBI in the first two years of his deal.  The first baseman has also struggled to stay healthy since he started collecting the big bucks.

Was Charlie Manuel responsible for signing Roy Halladay to a three-year, $60 million extension?   Halladay's wins have dropped from 19 to 11 to 2 since 2011, while his ERA his risen from 2.35 to 4.49 to 8.65 over the same time period.

What about Cole Hamels' seven-year, $153 million deal?  Did Charlie Manuel have anything to do with giving that contract to a pitcher who is currently leading the league in losses and is posting his highest ERA and WHIP since 2009?

And although Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million), Jonathan Papelbon (four years, $50 million) and Jimmy Rollins (three years, $33 million) have all been reasonably productive, they will all be expected to continue their production at a high rate of pay until they're in their mid-to-late thirties.

Charlie Manuel didn't give these players eight and nine-figure deals.  Ruben Amaro, Jr. did.  It was Amaro who made the trades, free agent signings and re-signings that are now coming back to bite the team.  And it was Amaro who had the dubious distinction of removing the manager, because of course, it was the manager's fault that players past their prime got injured or stopped producing at the same rate they did when they were in their 20s.

As Mets fans, we're quite pleased that the Phillies have gone from the self-proclaimed team to beat in 2007 to a team that gets beaten quite often in 2013.  And if the Phillies continue to expect thirty-somethings to play like twenty-somethings, they're going to remain behind the Mets in the division standings for years to come.

Manuel did a fantastic job with the Phillies, leading them to five division titles, two pennants and a World Series championship.  But he did this with players who were in their prime.  Those players are now past their prime, and the general manager who put and kept the team together has done nothing to make the team any younger.  Oh wait.  He did.  He replaced the winningest manager in franchise history with an interim manager who is fifteen years his junior.  Our bad.

Charles Fuqua Manuel is out as Phillies manager after nearly nine years at the helm.  It's too bad for Philadelphia that the man who should have lost his job for the small fortune he doled out to aging players is still collecting a paycheck of his own.

What Should The Mets Do With Jordany Valdespin?

Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images

In 2012, Jordany Valdespin put his name in the Mets record book with one swing of the bat, crushing a three-run homer off Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon on May 7 for his first major league hit.  The homer propelled the Mets to a 5-2 victory over their division rival in Philadelphia.

Valdespin had a knack for providing big blasts off the bench in 2012, as his five pinch-hit homers broke the Mets franchise record set by Danny Heep in 1983 and tied by Mark Carreon in 1989.  Overall, Valdespin hit eight home runs for the Mets last year.  But his ability to hit the ball out of the park wasn't his only talent.

The 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic produced a total of 18 extra-base hits, scored 28 runs, collected 26 RBIs and stole 10 bases for the Mets in 2012, all without reaching 200 official at-bats.  Do you know how many Mets in team history have produced 18+ XBH, 28+ runs scored, 26+ RBIs and 10+ SB in the same season, regardless of the number of times they came up to the plate?  The answer is quite a handful, with the majority of the players doing it in full seasons of 500 or more at-bats.  But how many of them did it in as few a number of at-bats as Valdespin collected?  The answer is zero.

Let's just consider those players who, in 300 at-bats or fewer, matched or surpassed the number of extra-base hits, runs scored, RBIs and stolen bases that Valdespin achieved for the Mets in 2012.

 

Player	Year	AB	XBH	Runs	RBI	SB
Joe Christopher	1962	271	18	36	32	11
Claudell Washington	1980	284	30	38	42	17
Daryl Boston	1992	289	27	37	35	12
Jose Reyes	2003	274	21	47	32	13
Jordany Valdespin	2012	191	18	28	26	10

Only four players in Mets history have been able to produce a season in which they matched or surpassed Jordany Valdespin's 2012 totals in extra-base hits, runs scored, runs batted in and stolen bases, while collecting fewer than 300 official at-bats.  But all of them needed at least 80 more at-bats to achieve the numbers posted by Valdespin in only 191 at-bats.

Valdespin's production in 2012 was not a fluke.  In 2011, his last full season in the minors, Valdespin collected 52 extra-base hits, scored 69 runs, drove in 60 and stole 37 bases in 511 at-bats between AA-Binghamton and AAA-Buffalo.

Although Valdespin hit .241 for the Mets in 2012 (he hit .294 in the minors in 2011), his ability to drive the ball, find his way around the bases, and swipe a bag or ten are invaluable to a team needing whatever offensive spark it can get.  In addition, Valdespin proved to be versatile on the field, playing all three outfield positions and the two middle infield spots.

His attitude and behavior aren't always exemplary, and sometimes his defense leaves a little to be desired, but there's no question that Valdespin can be dangerous at the plate and on the basepaths.  Like your favorite adult beverage, Valdespin might be harmful in large doses, but when he's used in reasonable amounts, he can create quite a buzz at Citi Field.  And if the Mets want to do what's best for the team, they'll use Valdespin in moderation in 2013.

Former Red Sox Closer Lights A Papelbon-fire

What is it about becoming a member of the Phillies that gets certain players to say things to rile opposing fanbases?  It began so innocently five years ago when Jimmy Rollins proclaimed the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East.  Then Cole Hamels called the Mets chokers after the Phillies won the World Series in 2008.  Now one of the newest members of the Phillies has made a comment that is sure to get the attention of his former fans.

On Thursday, Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon told a Philadelphia radio station that his new team's fans "tend to know the game a little better" than Red Sox fans.  He also went on to say that fans in Boston are "a little bit more hysterical when it comes to the game of baseball".

Oh, really?  I believe now would be a good time for me to respond to Papelbon's comments by quoting the great philosopher, Jules Winnfield, when I say "Well, allow me to retort".

Prior to 2007, Phillies fans stayed away from the ballpark in droves.  When Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Phillies averaged 40,125 patrons per home date.  The luster of the new ballpark faded quickly, as attendance plummeted in CBP's second year, with an average of 32,905 fans showing up to see a decent Phillies team finish 88-74.  The 88 victories represented the highest total for a Phillies club since the 1993 National League pennant-winning team.  It was the Phillies' most successful season in 12 years, and home attendance DROPPED by 20%.

Although the Mets ran away with the NL East title in 2006, the Phillies competed for the wild card until the final week of the season.  They fell short in their quest, but not by much, finishing three games behind the playoff-bound Los Angeles Dodgers.  Despite contending for a playoff spot all year, the average attendance for a Phillies' home game in 2006 was 33,356.  Contention brought in an extra 451 fans per game compared to the 2005 team.

Meanwhile, Boston's Fenway Park, which doesn't even have a capacity of 40,000, has drawn over 30,000 fans per game in every season since 1999.  The last time the Red Sox failed to draw over 2,000,000 fans in a non-strike-shortened season was in 1985, which was the same year Jonathan Papelbon turned five.

Of course, Phillies fans, according to Papelbon, know the game better than Red Sox fans do.  That explains why they didn't start showing up to games until after the Phillies actually won something in 2007, which Papelbon would know nothing about since he was too busy winning a World Series in Boston for those "not-as-knowledgeable" Red Sox fans.

Also, how would Papelbon know anything about what Phillies fans are like?  As a member of the Red Sox, he pitched a total of 4⅔ innings at Citizens Bank Park.  He actually pitched very well in Philadelphia, allowing no runs on one hit in five appearances against the Phillies, which means he probably heard a lot of boos from the Philly Phaithful.  Again, this clearly shows the superiority of Phillies fans over Red Sox fans when it comes to knowledge of the game, doesn't it?  When in doubt, just boo.

In 2008, Brad Lidge went 41-for-41 in save opportunities for the Phillies.  The following season, he suffered from a Jekyll and Hyde-like transformation, causing him to pitch like a post-1984 Doug Sisk.  Phillies fans shared their knowledge of four-letter words with Lidge once their post-championship hangover ended.  Is that the "knowledge" Papelbon is referring to?

I understand that Jonathan Papelbon wants his new fanbase to like him.  What player on a new team wouldn't?  But to slap the faces of his former fans with a statement that just isn't true - well, actually, we'd expect that more from a Phillies fan and not a Phillie.  Then again, maybe Papelbon is just trying to fit in with his big-mouthed teammates.

Perhaps Red Sox fan (and Studious Metsimus reader) Chris Giordano said it best when he said, "Maybe Papelbon should take it out on Red Sox management.  The fans had nothing to do with the Red Sox not re-signing him."

The Red Sox weren't aggressive in their pursuit of Papelbon.  The Phillies were.  If Papelbon had a problem with the way his former team went about the negotiating process, that's between him and the front office.  His displeasure should not bring his former fans into the mix.

Simply stated, Red Sox fans know their baseball.  They're passionate about it in a way that Papelbon will more than likely never see in Philadelphia.  Phillies fans will only come out for a winner.  Red Sox fans come out for the Red Sox.  Papelbon better hope the Phillies continue to win division titles during his four years there.  If not, the only sounds he'll be hearing at Citizens Bank Park will be coming from the crickets.  But then again, he probably already has "knowledge" of that.

Omir, Oh My! How Will Omir Santos Do In 2010?

As the countdown towards Late Winter Training continues, it is becoming more and more likely that the Mets are going with Omir Santos as their #1 catcher, with Henry Blanco and Chris Coste vying for the backup spot.

The Mets spent their winter break signing tenth-string catchers Coste and Blanco and let a more competent catcher like Funky Cold Molina re-sign with the Giants. As a result, Santos will now be expected to handle the pitching staff of Johan Santana and The Four Rainouts as well as performing a few Omir-acles of his own at the plate.

Can he be counted on to repeat his unexpected 2009 performance this year now that more is expected from him? Let's take a look inside the Studious Metsimus Stat Box and pick out some juicy numbers.

In 2008, Omir Santos was called up to the major leagues by the Baltimore Orioles for some coffee and donuts. Since they used peppermint in his coffee (trust me when I say it's a bad combination), he bid adieu to Baltimore and said hello to the Mets. It was in New York that he got his huge break when Brian Schneider got injured, forcing the Mets to call him up to be a part of the Not Ready For Prime Time (Baseball) Players.

However, something happened on the way to the 7 train. On a team full of fragile players and David K. Wright (the K stands for "why the fudge did you strike out so much in 2009?"), Omir blossomed into a pretty decent (and clutch) hitter.

On May 23, Santos hit the most dramatic home run of the 2009 season (some might say the only dramatic home run of the 2009 season, but my name isn't "some") when he hit a two-out, two-run HR in the ninth inning off Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead. The umpires originally called the shot a double off the Green Monster, but video replay showed that the ball went over the wall and bounced back onto the field of play. To be honest with you, I thought the ball was called a double at first because the umpires couldn't believe it was Omir Santos who hit the home run and not a genuine power threat like...

Well...

Uhh...

Okay, let's be honest with ourselves. The umpires couldn't believe a Met hit a home run off ANYONE. Jonathan Papelbon was so upset that he gave up a home run to a Met that he immediately punched himself in the crotch. (see photo below)

Santos continued his success after Papelbon's "Crotch Heard 'Round The World" by finishing the 2009 season with a .260 batting average, seven HR and 40 RBI in 291 at-bats. Will that translate into a better season in 2010 if he gets the 400 at-bats usually reserved for a #1 catcher?

Unfortunately, looking at his minor league stats, the answer might be no. In 2,229 career at-bats for various minor league teams, Santos could only manage a .258 average, with 32 HR and 260 RBI. He hit .260 for the Mets after not being able to do that against MINOR LEAGUE PITCHING in his eight-plus years toiling in Buttsburg, Wyoming and Fartsville, Wisconsin (although the cheese being cut in Fartsville by the Wisconsin cheeseheads is quite aromatic).

Can the Mets expect more Omir-acles from Santos in 2010? Probably not. They don't play the Red Sox this season and due to the lack of catching depth on the team, there's very little chance he'll get sent back to Wisconsin to play for Count Flatula. If Santos repeats his seven HR, 40 RBI performance in 400 at-bats, that should be considered a success for him. But I'm not counting on it.

The Mets would be better off signing a more experienced catcher who can do well with a pitching staff that can be quite erratic at times. (see Maine, J. and Perez, O.) Given 400 at-bats, any catcher can hit seven HR and drive in 40 runs. But with the problems the Mets could have with their starting pitchers, it may be more important to go with a catcher who can help the Mets more with his handling of pitchers than with his handling of the bat. If the Mets give that much playing time to Omir Santos, they'd better hope he can handle the Four Rainouts portion of Johan Santana and The Four Rainouts. If he can't, the band might not get another gig at Citi Field.

Billy Wagner Puts On His Sox

This is Joey and it's my turn to fill in on a Studious Metsimus blog. Today was a sad day for me as my beloved Billy Wagner made his debut for the Boston Red Sox.

After two final outings for the Mets at Citi Field last week, (two innings, no runs, no hits, one walk, four strikeouts), he brought his blazing fastball and deceptive slider to Fenway Park.

He has continued to dominate in the American League. Coming into the game in the top of the eighth inning today, Billy gave up a one-out double to Adam Lind. This did not faze the Sandman as he struck out the other three batters he faced.

How was he rewarded by Red Sox Nation for his dominant debut? By exiting the game to Neil Diamond's "Sweet Caroline". That never would have happened at Citi Field!

BFF Jonathan Papelbon did not come into the game in the ninth inning as the Red Sox held a commanding 7-0 lead over the Blue Jays, thereby negating a potential save situation.

The Red Sox had reported before the game that Papelbon would not be available for today's game because he had notched saves in each of the two previous games. However, our Studious Metsimus photographers were at Fenway Park last night and were able to take this picture of Papelbon (see photo, above right) punching himself in the groin after last night's save. We believe it was this crotch punching incident that kept him out of today's game.

With the acquisition of Billy Wagner, Boston has shortened the game to a seven-inning affair. Their bullpen is now one of the best in the major leagues and should fuel them in the hopes of securing a playoff berth.

This may be good for the Red Sox, but I'm still left with an empty feeling in my heart. Billy worked so hard to get back to the majors so he could help the Mets make a run in September. Unfortunately, that run never happened. I will continue to report on his outings, although my tears might prevent me from doing so occasionally.

For now, I will continue to remember Billy as the Mets' Sandman, the man whose bobblehead I will always treasure. You will always be a Met to me, no matter whose uniform you're wearing and the music that follows you when you leave the game. Neil Diamond? Meh!

Breaking News: Billy Wagner Claimed Off Waivers By...

This is Joey Beartran with a special report that I'm breaking right now on ZCB. This is probably because I'm the only reporter here tonight. Where is everybody?

Anyway, there have been numerous reports circulating throughout the blogosphere about Billy Wagner being claimed off waivers by several teams.

From foxsports.com, Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Boston Red Sox have claimed Wagner. Mark Miller of Yahoo Sports says that the two Florida teams (Marlins and Rays) have an interest in Wagner as well.

I, however, know where Billy Wagner is going. He wants to be a closer again. Although the Marlins and Rays could use a steady closer, they would have to pick up the remaining $2.7 million of his contract. Neither team spends freely, although the Rays might dip into the piggy bank if they have to.

The Red Sox already have a closer in Jonathan Papelbon. The Mets are already familiar with him from his blown save against them in May when he gave up the replay-aided Omir-acle. Readers of ZCB and the stars of the movie "Jackass" are familiar with Papelbon from his celebratory punches to his own crotch.


Surely, Wagner will not go to a team where he will just be another middle reliever. Plus, he has a no-trade clause in his contract. If he's going to waive it, this cub reporter believes it would be specifically to become a closer for another team.

Who is the mystery team that can guarantee a closer's job to the Sandman? Why, it's the ZCB company softball team!

We already have an All-Star in Cubby Leyro. His glove will allow Wagner to depend less on the strikeout. Fewer strikeouts equals fewer pitches equals less fatigue.

Our big slugger is Rick R. Mortis. Although he tends to break his bats quite often with his powerful swings (along with an occasional bone or three), when he makes contact, the ball flies off his bat. The thunderous sound produced when horsehide meets maple is enough to wake the dead.

If our team keeps the game close and Mortis comes up in a tie game in the bottom of the eighth inning, he'll make sure to give Wagner a save situation in the ninth inning.

Our manager is Billy Bear. He is loved by all his players, as he makes sure all of them get a fair amount of playing time. Wagner would be sure to get into as many games as he wants to for the ZCB team because Billy Bear will do whatever he can to keep his players happy.

Besides, how can any player not want to play for someone who looks like this?

Finally, a closer can only get games to save if his starting pitcher comes through and holds the opposition to few runs. We have a recently expired, I mean, retired pitcher who we just signed to a long-term deal. He's a proven winner and a blogger himself!

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Curt Schilling. As you can see by the picture to the right, he possesses a devastating split-fingered pitch, shows a lot of heart (sometimes a little too much) and can always intimidate the opposing hitters by showing them his famous bloody sock.

Also, due to recent changes in Schilling's "lifestyle", he no longer requires four days of rest. He can pitch every day and can bridge the gap directly to Wagner. No middle reliever is needed whenever Schilling staggers onto the mound.

There you have it, my friends. The ZCB softball team has claimed
Billy Wagner off waivers. Now the Mets have until Tuesday to trade him to our team. It would behoove them to do it as soon as possible so that Billy can partake in Tuesday Taco Night after the game. Surely, if the promise of being our closer doesn't pique Wagner's interest, Tuesday Taco Night will seal the deal. After all, it's sponsored by Keith Hernandez's mustache...

On behalf of everyone at the ZCB Newsdesk, I'd like to welcome Billy Wagner to our company softball team! Now if we could only get our cassette player working properly so it could play "Enter Sandman" without the tape being eaten up inside the tape deck, things would be perfect!